Rich Ulrich <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote in sci.stat.edu:
>This was a topic a month ago. Just to bring things up to date....
>
>Barry Bonds hit 38 homers in the first half of the season (81 games),
>a record pace. Should we expect his performance to "regress to the
>mean" sufficiently that he would not break the season record of 70?
>
>BB had never hit 50 in one season, and no player as old
>as BB (at 37 years) had ever hit 50. In the 3rd quarter of the
>season, BB raised his total to 53 (I think): 15 in 41 games
>was still an exceptional pace, though not 19 or 20.
>
>Should the final quarter regress toward his 3rd quarter run,
>his full-year average, or his average over recent seasons?
Would the relevant mean not be the mean of final quarter of season
over the years of his career? Otherwise you're neglecting seasonal
factors, which could have great impact on his performance.
--
Stan Brown, Oak Road Systems, Cortland County, New York, USA
http://oakroadsystems.com
My reply address is correct as is. The courtesy of providing a correct
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