This was a topic a month ago. Just to bring things up to date....
Barry Bonds hit 38 homers in the first half of the season (81 games),
a record pace. Should we expect his performance to "regress to the
mean" sufficiently that he would not break the season record of 70?
BB had never hit 50 in one season, and no player as old
as BB (at 37 years) had ever hit 50. In the 3rd quarter of the
season, BB raised his total to 53 (I think): 15 in 41 games
was still an exceptional pace, though not 19 or 20.
Should the final quarter regress toward his 3rd quarter run,
his full-year average, or his average over recent seasons?
By yesterday, Sammy Sosa had tied a record for one-month
homer-output, and pulled up to a total of 51. He is only the
second player (after McGwire) to hit 50 in four consecutive
seasons. He has 9 multi-homer games so far this season.
If the final part of the season "regresses to" the last 6 weeks,
or else regresses to the preceding season or three,
then Sosa passes Bonds for the HR title; at less than 70.
--
Rich Ulrich, [EMAIL PROTECTED]
http://www.pitt.edu/~wpilib/index.html
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