Re: [EVDL] EVLN: Performance modified Tesla-3 Track Record> That’s straight up nutty

[Matt Awesome via EV]

This is the least interesting thing Sasha has done.

He put a Tesla drive unit into a Lotus Evora last year for a
time-attack car. Smoked everyone in his class by 3 full seconds.
Spectacular stuff:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=If09etyztl8

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rt4fGIoVMpM
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Re: [EVDL] electriccarpartscompany.com?

[Matt Awesome via EV]

https://www.diyelectriccar.com/forums/showthread.php?t=105314 <--
Maybe someone trying to scam them or defame them or screwed up his
cells and tried to blame them, but one guy says not to trust their
batteries.
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Re: [EVDL] Charging load on the grid (corrected)

[Matt Awesome via EV]

> They're just measuring the total power used in the home; lighting
> is not separated.

I acknowledged that twice already.

> So it says *nothing* about how many light are on in buildings.

Correct.

What it says is that 10 different things they did break out, and the
total power used, follows a nice, smooth predictable Weibull
logarithmic distribution with a smooth flowing tail approaching zero
unlike your suspicion earlier.

I think it's reasonable to extrapolate on that dataset and conclude
"Lighting probably follows a similar shape, it's not random dots, it's
not linear, it doesn't have double or triple peaks, etc"

If you want data on lighting itself, one of the earlier papers I
linked broke out not just into lighting, but 3 categories of lighting
(I think Living room lights, bedroom lights, and some other room set).
They counted not just the amount of bulbs, but the wattage of bulbs
and the amount of time the bulbs were on. They calculated not just the
median amounts, but separately broken out standard deviations for each
set of rooms in the entire dataset. I though it was extraordinarily
thorough and conclusive on the topic of lighting specifically. You
disagreed with it though. That's fine.

The only thing that study didn't show was the actual dataset, and
whether it was actually reasonable to call it "normal" and to actually
use the standard deviation. Hence the study you're talking about now.
So I dug up that one just to show that yep... sure seems like every
single type of electricity follows that shape.

What I think would be interesting is if anyone can dig up a source
that shows some kind of surprise distribution that is unique for
lighting specifically and shows how it doesn't mirror the other 10
tracked types of electrical usage from the previous study. That would
make me pause and reflect on the validity of these other studies. But
that's kinda what you'd have to hinge your argument on because between
the other 5 papers I found, looks like a pretty solidly figured issue
that it's not the case. So, go nuts and find some data if that's what
you think. I couldn't find anything that says that, so, it's good
brainstorming but seems like there's not much reason to doubt any of
these sources.
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Re: [EVDL] Charging load on the grid (corrected)

[Matt Awesome via EV]

> My (many decades old) memory of statistics is that a standard deviation
> assumes a Normal distribution. I suspect that the distribution of how many
> light are left on in a building is a long way away from normal.

Well you're wrong.

The graph is smooth and continuous.

If you want to get ultra-technical, I use the term "normally
distributed" to be simpler and enough people are going to misconstrue
that, but since it's not symetrical it's actually a Weibull
Distribution 
(http://people.stern.nyu.edu/adamodar/New_Home_Page/StatFile/statdistns.htm
, about half way down) since it's skewed left. It's skewed left since
you can't use less than zero electricity (insignificant amounts of the
population are net generators), but otherwise follows pretty much
perfectly smooth and expected logarithmic curvatures, especially to
the right on the high end.

Here's a PDF: 
http://www.lowcarbonlivingcrc.com.au/sites/all/files/publications_file_attachments/statistical_analysis_of_driving_factors_of_residential_energy_demand_-_final.pdf

Look at basically any of the graphs starting at page 9. They've broken
it down 10 different ways, they all follow the same shape.

If you hate PDFs, here is a direct link to the relevant graph:
https://i.imgur.com/Uk5bfxo.png

The point is that it's smooth and tapers, and how exceptionally rare
it is for someone to be at 10x the rate of anyone else. The average on
this graph is around 15kwh/day, look how far to the right 150wh/day
is. Even for this massive sample size (3300 households) it's an
immeasurably small amount of the population.

Even the amount to the right of 4x the average (60kwh/day) is less than 1%.

> We have this same debate every time someone mentions that the "average"
> person drives 35 miles per day; so an EV with a 50-mile range is fine. But
> everyone jumps in to say they don't know *anyone* who drives 35 miles/day --
> they all drive 100+miles/day, or virtually no miles most days.

Again, that is exactly the purpose of not just looking at a blind
average but to also look at the standard deviation (or lambda, or
whatever is relevant for the distribution math). The thing you're
confused about is already included in what I was saying.

Look at the graph I linked above. That is the raw data itself, not
just average it's the actual data. If what you're saying is true there
would be a double-peak, one low one high. We do not see that. We see
nice, smooth, distribution as we head to the right.

I think that's pretty conclusive.
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Re: [EVDL] Charging load on the grid (corrected)

[Matt Awesome via EV]

> It's not that simple. There are huge variations, so the "average" doesn't
> necessarily apply to all that many people

That's exactly what standard deviation is for, to know the probability
(or occurrence) of a given situation. A broadly spread dataset is
different from a tightly grouped dataset, and that's what standard
deviation tells you. Your criticism is already included in the model.
The way I used it is in proper context, so it makes sense.

> The statistics are slippery. The extremes don't make the case. But neither
> can you take the national average, and assume that everyone is like that,
> right in the middle.

You're correct.

But that's not what I did. What I did includes everything you're
thinking about and more.
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Re: [EVDL] Charging load on the grid (corrected)

[Matt Awesome via EV]

> I stand by my numbers when corrected to a house that leaves most of their
> lights on all evening and assuming averqaeg 75 Watt incandescent bulbs
> originally..

Which is some extreme outlier family who's electrical usage is
literally 10x the average home.

Ya gotta think, the crossover between people who use 10x the national
average of electricity, as much energy as the rest of their entire
block, and people who drive EVs, would drive EVs, or would even care
about the monetary savings... is probably exactly zero.

So, I'm not sure how much value there is in such an extreme off-case.

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0306261916305360

This has some datasets in Table 3 for hours of lights on in 3 different rooms.

The mean for a living room is 7.15 with a standard deviation of 4.32.
To find someone with not even 3x that (20), you're already looking at
1 household out of 1000. Let alone 10x that.

I can't actually find a calculator that'll give me the odds for 71.5
hours, it's so extraordinarily rare. It's like, one person per state,
maybe.

> But he equally exaggerated errors.

I don't see that you showed that I did.

 - You're claiming the average bulb in a house is 75W, which is even
more ridiculous than 60w. Average bulb wattage for incandescents is
probably 45, maybe 50 watts. I don't think that's an exaggerated claim
to say you're not saving 100%, you're only saving 80%, which is about
what I used in my math.

 - I said two vehicles per family. Which is accurate. You said
swapping bulbs provides the same amount of power needed to charge an
EV the American average. Okay, true on a technicality but you're
mixing variables. You're looking at a household average to find the
savings, and then not using a household average of miles (only an
individual average of miles). Okay, fine.

Worst case I'm off by a factor of 2 for counting a second vehicle.
You're off by a factor of 10-15.

You said "Swapping out the average American home from Incandescent
bulbs to LEDs" but want to amend that to "a house that leaves most of
their lights on all evening" which is really "a house with also nearly
double the average bulb wattage" which is off, in terms of
frequency, by a factor of somewhere in the range of millions to tens
of millions relative to the actual "average" household's lighting
requirements.

That's like saying "The average household switching from a lawnmower
to a pair of nail clippers to mow their lawn will save time!", if by
"average household" you mean "Those with only 10 blades of grass or
fewer", which is functionally no one.

...

I know this seems like I'm being pedantic, but, absurd, extreme
arguments presented from an energy conservation side are what people
use to ridicule, mock, and reject making changes in their lives or in
the policies of government. It's literally as silly as telling people
to go cut their lawn with nail clippers because it's faster. No, it's
not, and saying things like that gets genuine problems laughed at.
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Re: [EVDL] Reposting, Still Need Help, 86 Year Old Uncle Still TryingAfter 34 Years to Get Bucket List GE EV1-B Based EV Car Running

[Matt Awesome via EV]

> The GE EV-1 SCR controller is quite similar to yours, but the SCR controller 
> in your pictures is *not* and EV-1

Hrm, okay.

> (and possibly not a GE product ;^).

It's definitely a GE. Transformer says GE right on it, and, other
parts of the schematic say GE I'm sure. And I'm certain the schematic
is for mine because I peeled it off the inside of the forklift I
pulled the controller and motor from.

> Google isn't any help figuring out if this is an earlier GE model or not.

It's from a 1969 York forklift. Google returned nadda.

> The person seeking help has a bit different situation than you or I (I also 
> have an EV with a GE EV-1 controller in it), since he is electrically 
> reversing the motor and so cannot simply eliminate the directional switch(es) 
> and contactors like we did.

I understand this but, when troubleshooting you cut out everything but
the essentials to reduce your variables, then add them back as needed.
If you can get the speed controller part of it working then it's just
a matter of bloating it back up.

You'd know this but since no one's mentioned it yet, the EVDL library
has lots of info on the actual EV-1 controller.
http://evdl.org/lib/index.html
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Re: [EVDL] Reposting, Still Need Help, 86 Year Old Uncle Still TryingAfter 34 Years to Get Bucket List GE EV1-B Based EV Car Running

[Matt Awesome via EV]

> Cor, while your GE controller might well have had similar (or identical) 
> switch input requirements as the GE EV-1 SCR controller in question, it is 
> worth noting that your controller was *not* an EV-1.

Wait, I had this backwards. I thought we *were* discussing the EV-1
vehicle, not the forklift controller.

If we're talking about the forklift controller I can help! I stripped
mine down to the bare minimum required to make it run.

Here is a link to an album, where you should be able to click on
individual high-res pictures: https://imgur.com/a/Y560sqp

Basically you can ignore almost everything and just gut it right down
to its essentials to get the motor to run.

After cutting out all excess stuff out, you're left with some pretty
minimal connections to make:
- The motor connects to positive.
- One motor field connects to one motor armature, doens't matter which
for testing, it just sets direction.
- The motor connects to the speed controller.
- The speed controller connects to negative.
- The foot pedal potentiometer connects to the controller (pin 29?)
- The foot pedal "power on" switch connects to a contactor, or a dummy
load to fool it to thinking there's a contactor there. (pin 41,
through dummy load to positive?)

I think that's all, there might be a wire or two I'm missing but, there you go.

Does that help? I don't have it in front of me and I'm quite rusty
since it was a year ago that I figured this out, got it working, and
then abandoned it for another controller... but I'm pretty sure I
could walk you through it if need be.
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Re: [EVDL] Charging load on the grid (NOT)

[Matt Awesome via EV]

> Remember this factoid.

I'm all for saving energy and obviously I'm here so I'm passionate
about EV use, but, it's also important to me to not treat this like
some kind of religion.

> Swapping out the average American home from Incandescent bulbs to LEDs saves
> the same amount of power needed to charge an EV the American 40 mile average
> per day forever.

Plainly, no, it won't.

> 50 bulbs saving an average 60 watts each for 5 hours a day is 15 kWh.

Who the hell leaves 50 lightbulbs on in their house for 5 hours a day?

I don't even think I have 50 lightbulbs in my house, let alone leave
them all on 5 hours a day.

Anyone with that many fixtures is putting 40w bulbs into them. And
LEDs aren't free, so, there's not 60watts savings from a 60w bulb.

Let's try to get some more realistic numbers.

How many Kwh does an average US household consume in a day?:
Source 1: https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=97=3 -
Independent US Energy & Information Statistics says ~10,000kwh/year.
That's 27kwh/day.
Source 2: 
http://www.nationmaster.com/country-info/stats/Energy/Electricity/Consumption-by-households-per-capita#2005
- Around half that.

What percentage of an electrical bill is comprised of lighting?:
Source 3: https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=96=3 - 9%.
Source 4: 
https://www.quora.com/What-percentage-of-energy-consumption-is-from-lighting-in-a-typical-American-house
- 6%.

The split seems to vary depending on whether heat is made through gas
or electricity. Meaning the lower percentage use numbers for lighting
are from houses that use 2x as much electricity (for heat). If they're
not making heat electrically, their lighting percentage is higher (but
the same net total).

So, we could say 27kwh/day of which lighting is 6% or 15kwh/day of
which lighting is 9% to at least be in the right ballpark (this
argument is about general scale, not really precision).

What is the average lighting demand for a US household?:
- 27kwh*6% = 1.62kwh/day.
- 15kwh*9% = 1.35kwh/day.

Somewhere around 1500 watt-hours a day.

You're claiming 10x that amount in *savings* from switching to LED,
let alone total lighting use.

> Charging an EV at 1.5kw for 10 hours a day is 15 kWh.

Since it's not the 1970s, the average household has at least 2
vehicles, more when there's teenagers/college kids.

So... your "factoid" for a household is now off by a factor of 20x.

Add in that LEDs aren't free, you're off by a factor of 25x.

It would be more accurate to say that by switching from incandescents
to LEDs, you could expect to save enough energy to cover 4% of your
electric vehicle use. A pretty banal, unsensational, non-headlight
grabbing rhetoric for sure, but at least an accurate one.

You can nitpick those numbers a bit, they might be off by, oh, perhaps
double, but they're not off by an order of magnitude.
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Re: [EVDL] Advice on new battery pack

[Matt Awesome via EV]

> Where?

http://car-part.com <-- From a junkyard/dealer. Find one near you else
it's a pallet to ship.

There's whole packs in there $1500-2000.

Or Ebay.
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Re: [EVDL] Advice on new battery pack

[Matt Awesome via EV]

> Reading thru the prior comments (which I really appreciate) I am starting to
> wonder if I'm getting ahead of the cost curve.

I think you're at an ideal time to buy used lithiums.

You can get 16kw worth of Volt packs for under $2k without shopping
around much or lucking out.

There is basically no need to ever use lead acids again. And I'm not a
performance snob, I say that as a penny pincher, they're inferior in
cost per kWh too. Comparable lithiums are cheaper and better in every
way.

If you think Lithiums will continue to fall in price, that's true. But
the decision should be to hold off entirely or buy lithium now. Never
lead acids.
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Re: [EVDL] Weatherproof boxes (Was: Juicebox)

[Matt Awesome via EV]

> One of the mistakes folks make it to attempt to make the box completely
> sealed. You really can't seal a box effectively without going to extreme
> measures.

Here's a really interesting video dealing with trying to seal bicycle
hub motors.

https://youtu.be/gwlbAJLzI_w?t=1242

It's a long video, that link should skip you to 20:42 into it. (I
usually watch at 2x speed, takes a few seconds to get used to).

The guy giving the talk is the guy who designed the CycleAnalyst, he
more or less founded the E-bike scene in Canada 15 years ago. At this
point he'd been running his factory/shop/service center for 7 years,
and he's sharing his experience.

In summary:

1 - When motors/controllers/etc get hot, the air inside expands. Some
air finds a way out to equalize pressure. When it cools it contracts,
air finds a way back in. It brings water and humidity in with it.

2 - You can seal around the wires really really well. That's nice,
water still gets in. How?

3 - Inside the wire, in the "air gap" between the wire metal and the
wire insulation, the suction is enough to suck water up it like a
straw. Fine, so seal around that as well on both ends. That's nice,
water still gets in. How?

4 - By wicking inside the stranded wire itself. Circular hexagonal
packing/tessellation is only 90% dense. Water, umm, finds a way.

5 - Gradually in wet areas (Vancouver, rainy winters, similar to
Seattle), this works like a pump. Ride bike, heat air, stop bike, suck
in water. Eventually the whole motor fills with water and rusts solid.

6 - Give up, paint the motor internals with waterproof enamel, drill
some holes in the motor case for the inevitable water to drain out,
problem solved.

Mirrors much of what Bill said.
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Re: [EVDL] EVLN: Microlino.ch e-Isetta (Urkel-mobile) r:133mi ts:56mph

[Matt Awesome via EV]

> http://autoweek.com/article/green-cars/isetta-coming-back-electric-car
> The Isetta is coming back as an electric car

I mean it sounds cool but I can't get this image out of my head:
https://i.imgur.com/gQ3DhkL.png
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[EVDL] Junk-Built Motorbike

[Matt Awesome via EV]

Hi everyone,

I'm doing an electric conversion of a 1985 Honda Nightwing 750s motorbike.
My goal originally was to build it entirely from garbage or unwanted items,
and document/video the process and teach others how to overcome barriers to
curiosity, like spare money, missing knowledge, etc. I've been hugely
inspired by the EVAlbum and have spend whole days pouring over the archives
for build ideas so, thanks all very much for the content.

It's an intermediate part of my progression from building a recumbent
3-bicyle from a treadmill motor, to eventually an electric car. I know
nothing about mechanics at all so it's a learning project for me too.

I'm new to the list and haven't seen much for build logs here, is that
something generally frowned on or encouraged?

I'm about half-done and don't want to text-spam to bring everyone up to
speed if that's not the point of this list.
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