> They're just measuring the total power used in the home; lighting
> is not separated.

I acknowledged that twice already.

> So it says *nothing* about how many light are on in buildings.

Correct.

What it says is that 10 different things they did break out, and the
total power used, follows a nice, smooth predictable Weibull
logarithmic distribution with a smooth flowing tail approaching zero
unlike your suspicion earlier.

I think it's reasonable to extrapolate on that dataset and conclude
"Lighting probably follows a similar shape, it's not random dots, it's
not linear, it doesn't have double or triple peaks, etc"

If you want data on lighting itself, one of the earlier papers I
linked broke out not just into lighting, but 3 categories of lighting
(I think Living room lights, bedroom lights, and some other room set).
They counted not just the amount of bulbs, but the wattage of bulbs
and the amount of time the bulbs were on. They calculated not just the
median amounts, but separately broken out standard deviations for each
set of rooms in the entire dataset. I though it was extraordinarily
thorough and conclusive on the topic of lighting specifically. You
disagreed with it though. That's fine.

The only thing that study didn't show was the actual dataset, and
whether it was actually reasonable to call it "normal" and to actually
use the standard deviation. Hence the study you're talking about now.
So I dug up that one just to show that yep... sure seems like every
single type of electricity follows that shape.

What I think would be interesting is if anyone can dig up a source
that shows some kind of surprise distribution that is unique for
lighting specifically and shows how it doesn't mirror the other 10
tracked types of electrical usage from the previous study. That would
make me pause and reflect on the validity of these other studies. But
that's kinda what you'd have to hinge your argument on because between
the other 5 papers I found, looks like a pretty solidly figured issue
that it's not the case. So, go nuts and find some data if that's what
you think. I couldn't find anything that says that, so, it's good
brainstorming but seems like there's not much reason to doubt any of
these sources.
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