> I stand by my numbers when corrected to a house that leaves most of their
> lights on all evening and assuming averqaeg 75 Watt incandescent bulbs
> originally..

Which is some extreme outlier family who's electrical usage is
literally 10x the average home.

Ya gotta think, the crossover between people who use 10x the national
average of electricity, as much energy as the rest of their entire
block, and people who drive EVs, would drive EVs, or would even care
about the monetary savings... is probably exactly zero.

So, I'm not sure how much value there is in such an extreme off-case.

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0306261916305360

This has some datasets in Table 3 for hours of lights on in 3 different rooms.

The mean for a living room is 7.15 with a standard deviation of 4.32.
To find someone with not even 3x that (20), you're already looking at
1 household out of 1000. Let alone 10x that.

I can't actually find a calculator that'll give me the odds for 71.5
hours, it's so extraordinarily rare. It's like, one person per state,
maybe.

> But he equally exaggerated errors.

I don't see that you showed that I did.

 - You're claiming the average bulb in a house is 75W, which is even
more ridiculous than 60w. Average bulb wattage for incandescents is
probably 45, maybe 50 watts. I don't think that's an exaggerated claim
to say you're not saving 100%, you're only saving 80%, which is about
what I used in my math.

 - I said two vehicles per family. Which is accurate. You said
swapping bulbs provides the same amount of power needed to charge an
EV the American average. Okay, true on a technicality but you're
mixing variables. You're looking at a household average to find the
savings, and then not using a household average of miles (only an
individual average of miles). Okay, fine.

Worst case I'm off by a factor of 2 for counting a second vehicle.
You're off by a factor of 10-15.

You said "Swapping out the average American home from Incandescent
bulbs to LEDs" but want to amend that to "a house that leaves most of
their lights on all evening" which is really "a house with also nearly
double the average bulb wattage".... which is off, in terms of
frequency, by a factor of somewhere in the range of millions to tens
of millions relative to the actual "average" household's lighting
requirements.

That's like saying "The average household switching from a lawnmower
to a pair of nail clippers to mow their lawn will save time!", if by
"average household" you mean "Those with only 10 blades of grass or
fewer", which is functionally no one.

...

I know this seems like I'm being pedantic, but, absurd, extreme
arguments presented from an energy conservation side are what people
use to ridicule, mock, and reject making changes in their lives or in
the policies of government. It's literally as silly as telling people
to go cut their lawn with nail clippers because it's faster. No, it's
not, and saying things like that gets genuine problems laughed at.
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