Re: [EVDL] EVLN: Holy Crap, Used Leafs Are Incredibly Cheap

[EVDL Administrator via EV]

Production EVs are developing rapidly, if not as rapidly as smartphones.  
I'd guess that that's one reason that leases are popular.  It may also be 
one reason that they depreciate faster than ICEVs.

Just look at two year old smartphones (when sold outright, not on a mobile 
contract).  Most cost a fraction of their original price too, even when 
offered as new old stock.  

Another possible reason is simply that the used price reflects the actual 
value to buyers, while the new price was set too high.

David Roden - Akron, Ohio, USA
EVDL Administrator

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Re: [EVDL] EVLN: Holy Crap, Used Leafs Are Incredibly Cheap

[Ed Blackmond via EV]

On Nov 24, 2015, at 9:11 AM, Lee Hart via EV  wrote:

>> 'Leaf’s depreciation is comparable to a pack of Sharpies left out in the sun
>> with their caps off'
> 
> Hyperbole aside, the used price of something is irrelevant unless you need to 
> sell it.
> 
Or if you want to buy it. I have no intention of selling my 2011 Leaf, but at 
the current price, it is a great deal for somebody who wants to buy one. 
Ignoring its electric drivetrain, it is a pretty nice car.   The electric 
drivetrain makes it a perfect commuter car.

Most households with multiple cars, has one that is used exclusively for a 
daily commute. The Leaf fits that role perfectly.  Pretty much everybody I know 
who got one for a commuter car also uses it as their main car for other things.

Ed
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Re: [EVDL] EVLN: Holy Crap, Used Leafs Are Incredibly Cheap

[Lee Hart via EV]

Lee Hart wrote:

you have to expect that the batteries will get worse over time. All
batteries do.


Ben Goren wrote:

True in practice for today's EVs, but _not_ true as an absolute rule.
Iron Edison-style batteries have functionally limitless lifespans,
though they're much too heavy for use in an EV. But the fact that
it's possible to make an immortal battery at all should give us hope
that somebody will figure out a way to make an immortal battery
that's light and small enough to be useful in an EV.


I'd say the problem is that "Mr. Market" won't buy a product with 
extremely long life. Long life adds cost, and almost no one will pay for 
it. Companies also don't want products that last too long; it prevents 
future sales. This is one of the reasons Edison didn't succeed with his 
battery; people weren't willing to pay more for long life.


*Any* battery chemistry can be made to last. Erik Sandell drove his EV 
over 100,000 miles on the same set of lead-acid batteries... which he 
got as *used* tubular plate industrial cells.



It also seems that Tesla's batteries are significantly outliving
their already optimistic projections.


Isn't it really too soon to tell? Teslas aren't that old yet.


When companies start offering ten-year / 100,000-mile warranties on
batteries to maintain>= 80% new capacity...


I think they are being *forced* to offer these warranties by EPA 
regulations. Whether the batteries will actually last that long or not 
is unknown. But the manufacturers have to *try* to get this kind of 
life, or they will be murdered by warranty costs.


My skeptical side thinks that if there were no warranty requirements, 
automakers would be using cheap, short-life batteries that needed 
maintenance every 3000 miles, and only lasted a few years, so they could 
reap big profits on servicing and replacements. Just like the lead-acid 
batteries they are already using.


--
Do the thing that needs to be done, even if no one else yet notices
that it needs doing. -- anonymous
--
Lee Hart, 814 8th Ave N, Sartell MN 56377, www.sunrise-ev.com
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Re: [EVDL] EVLN: Holy Crap, Used Leafs Are Incredibly Cheap

[Ben Goren via EV]

On Nov 24, 2015, at 12:43 PM, Lee Hart via EV  wrote:

> Mark Abramowitz wrote:
> 
>> Stock price is irrelevant to the value of a company's used product. 
>> Frequently also irrelevant to the value of the underlying company.
> 
> Agreed. Stock price was just an easy way to demonstrate that the market
> price for something does not always reflect its value. In particular, it
> does not reflect its value to YOU!

I've had this conversation with a few people over the past couple weeks.

The best investment is the one that you never sell because it's too valuable 
for you to let go of.

Would you rather flip houses, or invest in an home you'll luxuriate in for the 
rest of your life? Do you really want to be making new car payments forever? 
How about friends, spouses: trade them in for a new model at the first sign of 
boredom or work with somebody to build the life of your dreams?

b&
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Re: [EVDL] EVLN: Holy Crap, Used Leafs Are Incredibly Cheap

[Ben Goren via EV]

On Nov 24, 2015, at 1:46 PM, Lee Hart via EV  wrote:

> I'd say the problem is that "Mr. Market" won't buy a product with extremely 
> long life.

You may well be right. At the same time, reliability is a popular selling 
feature, and, if somebody can make a durable battery that's not much more 
expensive than a disposable one, Mr. Market may just succumb to the upsell.

> *Any* battery chemistry can be made to last.

Would that extend to, for example, the sort of off-the-shelf batteries used in 
DIY conversions? As in, could I buy one of the Leaf packs from Hybrid Auto 
Center, or make my own battery from a bucketfull of A123 cells, or the like, 
and make it last? I'm assuming that's the job of the BMS...?

> Isn't it really too soon to tell? Teslas aren't that old yet.

I wouldn't quote me, but the Roadster's been on the road for seven years, long 
enough for initial plots to show if they're ahead of or behind the projected 
curve. It was much less than seven years for people to figure out that the 
first-generation Leafs were dying fast in hot climates.

> My skeptical side thinks that if there were no warranty requirements, 
> automakers would be using cheap, short-life batteries that needed maintenance 
> every 3000 miles, and only lasted a few years, so they could reap big profits 
> on servicing and replacements. Just like the lead-acid batteries they are 
> already using.

If they did that, they'd lose a really big selling point. At the least, they'd 
have to sell the car at a much cheaper price. Bad enough you have to spend 
hundreds of dollars every few years or whatever for tires...but if you also had 
to spend thousands on batteries? People would immediately stop thinking of just 
the electricity as the price to drive and include the battery replacement / 
overhaul / whatever in the price per mile, and then no amount of squinting 
would make them look reasonably priced. Or, worse, everybody would just get a 
short-term lease and then the car company / bank / whatever would be stuck 
spending that money.

I get your pessimism...it seems ever harder to buy so-called durable goods that 
are actually durable. But, especially since ICEVs all have had "10/100" 
drivetrain warranties standard for so long, I don't think people will accept 
anything meaningfully less from a BEV.

b&
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Re: [EVDL] EVLN: Holy Crap, Used Leafs Are Incredibly Cheap

[Ben Goren via EV]

On Nov 24, 2015, at 10:11 AM, Lee Hart via EV  wrote:

> And of course, you have to expect that the batteries will get worse over 
> time. All batteries do.

True in practice for today's EVs, but _not_ true as an absolute rule. Iron 
Edison-style batteries have functionally limitless lifespans, though they're 
much too heavy for use in an EV. But the fact that it's possible to make an 
immortal battery at all should give us hope that somebody will figure out a way 
to make an immortal battery that's light and small enough to be useful in an EV.

It also seems that Tesla's batteries are significantly outliving their already 
optimistic projections. I think it's entirely reasonable to suggest that it 
won't be long before an EV's batteries are, for all intents and purposes, as 
long-lived as an ICEV's engine or transmission. When companies start offering 
ten-year / 100,000-mile warranties on batteries to maintain >= 80% new 
capacity, that's as much lifetime as they need. And it'll only keep getting 
better

b&
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[EVDL] EVLN: Holy Crap, Used Leafs Are Incredibly Cheap

[brucedp5 via EV]

“Honey, should we get these hand towels? Or a used Nissan Leaf?”
'Leaf’s depreciation is comparable to a pack of Sharpies left out in the sun
with their caps off'

http://jalopnik.com/holy-crap-used-nissan-leafs-are-incredibly-cheap-1743475298
Holy Crap, Used Nissan Leafs Are Incredibly Cheap
11/19/15  Doug DeMuro

[image  
http://i.kinja-img.com/gawker-media/image/upload/s--L3mfRGbn--/c_scale,fl_progressive,q_80,w_800/1526151708553893155.jpg
]

It has recently come to my attention that used Nissan Leafs are tremendously
cheap. Insanely cheap. Ridiculously cheap. So cheap that there are couples
currently browsing the aisles at Bed Bath & Beyond, saying to one another:
“Honey, should we get these hand towels? Or a used Nissan Leaf?”

Today I’ve decided to thoroughly address this situation from top to bottom.
To do so, I will ask all the tough questions: How did it start? What happens
next? And what will we do when our nation’s used car lots are bogged down
with electric Nissans that cost as much as an adult llama?

But first, a little proof that the Leaf is as cheap as I say it is.

For those of you who weren’t with us back in late 2010 when the Leaf first
came out for the 2011 model year, it’s important to note that the Leaf’s
original base price was $34,570 with shipping. This seems like a lot of
money now, and it certainly seemed like a lot of money back then. But people
were excited to pay it so they could drive around in an electric Nissan for
approximately 45 minutes before becoming paralyzed with fear that they would
run out of power in some exotic, faraway location, like a Costco parking
lot.

These days, prices have changed a bit. What I mean by this is that the
average asking price of a 2011 Nissan Leaf on Autotrader, five years later,
is just $10,724. In other words: after five years, the Leaf has retained
only 31 percent of its original value.

So how does this stack up to a normal car? Well, the average asking price
for a new 2011 Honda Accord model was $25,648, compared to an average asking
price today of about $14,370. The result is that the Accord has retained
around 56 percent of its value, or nearly double the Leaf’s figure.

But the Accord is a proven midsize car that’s celebrated for its impressive,
long-lasting durability. What happens when we pit the Leaf up against a
known depreciation disaster such as the Mercedes-Benz S-Class? This, I
figured, would be an excellent comparison, since Tavarish is always
reminding us that you can buy a used S-Class for the price of a half-eaten
Almond Joy and a bottle of dishwashing soap.

So how does the Leaf stack up? It turns out that after a starting MSRP of
around $95,000, the average asking price for a 2011 Mercedes-Benz S550 is
currently $41,719 on Autotrader. In other words: the S550 has retained 43.9
percent of its value over five years. In other other words: the Nissan Leaf
depreciates faster than a Mercedes-Benz S-Class. Frankly, the Leaf’s
depreciation isn’t even comparable to an automobile at this point. It’s
comparable to a pack of Sharpies left out in the sun with their caps off.

And this leads me to my major question today, which is: How the hell did
this happen? Fortunately, I have some answers for this one. Four answers,
specifically, which I will enumerate with bold type like an ESPN alert that
some famous athlete has just divorced a Kardashian.

REASON NUMBER ONE: Nobody actually paid the full sticker price for a Nissan
Leaf. I mean, oh, sure, Roger Early Adopter may have paid the asking price
when he sold his 2001 Honda Insight in order to pick up Leaf number six way
back in late 2010. But the truth is that the vast majority of Leaf owners
bought the car with some kind of major incentive, like a $199 per month
lease deal, or an enormous cash back offer usually only seen when Chrysler
is trying to sell Town & Countrys to Enterprise at the end of an especially
slow month. And then, on top of Nissan’s incentives, there were the federal
tax incentives for buying an electric vehicle, which made the Leaf even more
artificially desirable.

Which leads us to reason number two, namely…

REASON NUMBER TWO: Nissan flooded the market with these things. And I mean
flooded the market. When it comes to the Nissan Leaf, Nissan was Hurricane
Sandy, and the car market was that roller coaster that looked like it was
placed in the middle of the ocean to be used by thrill-seeking manatees.

The problem was this: thanks to such amazing purchase incentives and lease
deals, coupled with the excellent federal government tax credit, an enormous
number of people chose to buy a Nissan Leaf when it was new. But all this
artificial demand caused by incentives, deals, and tax credits has ended up
hurting the Leaf four years down the line, as the market is now stuck with
too many Leafs and not enough people interested in buying them.

And then there are other problems, like…

REASON NUMBER THREE: They’re losing battery capacity. Here’s the thing about