Re: My scepticism took a small knock today

2014-04-05 Thread Alberto G. Corona
There must be a pact of non aggression among sects in your
neighborhood that your sect of planet saviors has signed with the rest
of them. has been Al Gore there lately? ;)

2014-04-05 7:02 GMT+02:00, Chris de Morsella cdemorse...@yahoo.com:




 From: everything-list@googlegroups.com
 [mailto:everything-list@googlegroups.com] On Behalf Of Craig Weinberg
 Sent: Friday, April 04, 2014 7:11 PM
 To: everything-list@googlegroups.com
 Subject: Re: My scepticism took a small knock today





 On Friday, April 4, 2014 6:00:09 PM UTC-4, Liz R wrote:

Last night just before I woke up I had a dream about a guy coming to the
 door selling religion, so to speak - the details were a bit weird, as in
 most dreams, but that was the gist of it - I sent him away, saying no
 thanks we don't indulge or words to that effect.



 Love that response - even if from a dream - no thanks, we don't indulge
 Perfect.



 I've never had a dream of that sort, at least not that I can recall.



A few minutes ago, for the first time since we've been in this house (1
 and a half years) - indeed the first time in a lot longer than that - a
 guy came to the door with a copy of the Watchtower and a personal
 message from God. I sent him away, but ... I was a bit shaken.



 I must be on some national evangelical do not visit list, because when I see
 the little groups of salvation sellers come around they knock on all the
 houses except mine. I keep waiting, but instead I see them look down at
 their database generated no go list and move on. A strange mix of technology
 in the service of medievalism.



 Charles also had a weird recurring dream for several years about a situation
 he has now found himself in, to do with work, which has freaked him out a
 bit, although his makes more sense as a worry dream.



 Once is happenstance, twice is coincidence ... isn't it?


 Personally I think that you have to add in the fact that you took notice of
 the happenstance, so already it was a potential coincidence. By the time it
 recurs, it is slightly more than a coincidence. What does it mean? I think
 not much but it offers a glimpse into the larger nature of time as rooted in
 experience rather than physics.

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Re: If you can't disprove the science, you can always try suing

2014-04-05 Thread LizR
On 4 April 2014 19:35, Quentin Anciaux allco...@gmail.com wrote:

 2014-04-04 1:29 GMT+02:00 LizR lizj...@gmail.com:

 Climate Deniers Intimidate Journal into Retracting Paper that Finds They
 Believe Conspiracy Theories

 Ironically, it looks like they are conspiring to silence any mention of
 this fact!


 http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/climate-deniers-intimidate-journal-into-retracting-paper-that-finds-they-believe-conspiracy-theories

 PS I know this isn't about everything but there seems to be some
 interest in this topic on this forum.


 It is strange, because when I did mention that here, the answer was that
 it was perfectly normal and rational to believe in global conspiracy
 theories and irrational not to.

 That sounds a slightly strange view, imho. Who said that, may I ask, and
in what context?

(I will be sending my ninja assassins round to deal with them later, as per
the standing instructions of the Grand High Adepts of the Illuminati...)

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RE: My scepticism took a small knock today

2014-04-05 Thread Chris de Morsella


-Original Message-
From: everything-list@googlegroups.com
[mailto:everything-list@googlegroups.com] On Behalf Of Alberto G. Corona 

There must be a pact of non aggression among sects in your neighborhood
that your sect of planet saviors has signed with the rest of them. has been
Al Gore there lately? ;)

the bite of your irony attempts to leap, but fails to meet the bar

2014-04-05 7:02 GMT+02:00, Chris de Morsella cdemorse...@yahoo.com:




 From: everything-list@googlegroups.com 
 [mailto:everything-list@googlegroups.com] On Behalf Of Craig Weinberg
 Sent: Friday, April 04, 2014 7:11 PM
 To: everything-list@googlegroups.com
 Subject: Re: My scepticism took a small knock today





 On Friday, April 4, 2014 6:00:09 PM UTC-4, Liz R wrote:

Last night just before I woke up I had a dream about a guy coming to 
the  door selling religion, so to speak - the details were a bit 
weird, as in  most dreams, but that was the gist of it - I sent him 
away, saying no  thanks we don't indulge or words to that effect.



 Love that response - even if from a dream - no thanks, we don't
indulge
 Perfect.



 I've never had a dream of that sort, at least not that I can recall.



A few minutes ago, for the first time since we've been in this house 
(1  and a half years) - indeed the first time in a lot longer than 
that - a  guy came to the door with a copy of the Watchtower and a 
personal  message from God. I sent him away, but ... I was a bit shaken.



 I must be on some national evangelical do not visit list, because when 
 I see the little groups of salvation sellers come around they knock on 
 all the houses except mine. I keep waiting, but instead I see them 
 look down at their database generated no go list and move on. A 
 strange mix of technology in the service of medievalism.



 Charles also had a weird recurring dream for several years about a 
 situation he has now found himself in, to do with work, which has 
 freaked him out a bit, although his makes more sense as a worry dream.



 Once is happenstance, twice is coincidence ... isn't it?


 Personally I think that you have to add in the fact that you took 
 notice of the happenstance, so already it was a potential coincidence. 
 By the time it recurs, it is slightly more than a coincidence. What 
 does it mean? I think not much but it offers a glimpse into the larger 
 nature of time as rooted in experience rather than physics.

 --
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Re: My scepticism took a small knock today

2014-04-05 Thread Alberto G. Corona
It is not irony. It is sarcasm.

Although this message has been produced with 100% recycled electrons,
I can´t indulge chatting in threads like this since it causes constant
yawning on me and that increases my carbon footprint. Sorry

2014-04-05 10:27 GMT+02:00, Chris de Morsella cdemorse...@yahoo.com:


 -Original Message-
 From: everything-list@googlegroups.com
 [mailto:everything-list@googlegroups.com] On Behalf Of Alberto G. Corona

There must be a pact of non aggression among sects in your neighborhood
 that your sect of planet saviors has signed with the rest of them. has been
 Al Gore there lately? ;)

 the bite of your irony attempts to leap, but fails to meet the bar

 2014-04-05 7:02 GMT+02:00, Chris de Morsella cdemorse...@yahoo.com:




 From: everything-list@googlegroups.com
 [mailto:everything-list@googlegroups.com] On Behalf Of Craig Weinberg
 Sent: Friday, April 04, 2014 7:11 PM
 To: everything-list@googlegroups.com
 Subject: Re: My scepticism took a small knock today





 On Friday, April 4, 2014 6:00:09 PM UTC-4, Liz R wrote:

Last night just before I woke up I had a dream about a guy coming to
the  door selling religion, so to speak - the details were a bit
weird, as in  most dreams, but that was the gist of it - I sent him
away, saying no  thanks we don't indulge or words to that effect.



 Love that response - even if from a dream - no thanks, we don't
 indulge
 Perfect.



 I've never had a dream of that sort, at least not that I can recall.



A few minutes ago, for the first time since we've been in this house
(1  and a half years) - indeed the first time in a lot longer than
that - a  guy came to the door with a copy of the Watchtower and a
personal  message from God. I sent him away, but ... I was a bit shaken.



 I must be on some national evangelical do not visit list, because when
 I see the little groups of salvation sellers come around they knock on
 all the houses except mine. I keep waiting, but instead I see them
 look down at their database generated no go list and move on. A
 strange mix of technology in the service of medievalism.



 Charles also had a weird recurring dream for several years about a
 situation he has now found himself in, to do with work, which has
 freaked him out a bit, although his makes more sense as a worry dream.



 Once is happenstance, twice is coincidence ... isn't it?


 Personally I think that you have to add in the fact that you took
 notice of the happenstance, so already it was a potential coincidence.
 By the time it recurs, it is slightly more than a coincidence. What
 does it mean? I think not much but it offers a glimpse into the larger
 nature of time as rooted in experience rather than physics.

 --
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 --
 Alberto.

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Re: If you can't disprove the science, you can always try suing

2014-04-05 Thread Quentin Anciaux
It was in one of the climate threads.
Le 5 avr. 2014 09:11, LizR lizj...@gmail.com a écrit :

 On 4 April 2014 19:35, Quentin Anciaux allco...@gmail.com wrote:

 2014-04-04 1:29 GMT+02:00 LizR lizj...@gmail.com:

 Climate Deniers Intimidate Journal into Retracting Paper that Finds They
 Believe Conspiracy Theories

 Ironically, it looks like they are conspiring to silence any mention of
 this fact!


 http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/climate-deniers-intimidate-journal-into-retracting-paper-that-finds-they-believe-conspiracy-theories

 PS I know this isn't about everything but there seems to be some
 interest in this topic on this forum.


  It is strange, because when I did mention that here, the answer was that
 it was perfectly normal and rational to believe in global conspiracy
 theories and irrational not to.

 That sounds a slightly strange view, imho. Who said that, may I ask, and
 in what context?

 (I will be sending my ninja assassins round to deal with them later, as
 per the standing instructions of the Grand High Adepts of the Illuminati...)


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Re: If you can't disprove the science, you can always try suing

2014-04-05 Thread LizR
That doesn't narrow it down too much.


On 5 April 2014 22:31, Quentin Anciaux allco...@gmail.com wrote:

 It was in one of the climate threads.
 Le 5 avr. 2014 09:11, LizR lizj...@gmail.com a écrit :

 On 4 April 2014 19:35, Quentin Anciaux allco...@gmail.com wrote:

 2014-04-04 1:29 GMT+02:00 LizR lizj...@gmail.com:

 Climate Deniers Intimidate Journal into Retracting Paper that Finds
 They Believe Conspiracy Theories

 Ironically, it looks like they are conspiring to silence any mention of
 this fact!


 http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/climate-deniers-intimidate-journal-into-retracting-paper-that-finds-they-believe-conspiracy-theories

 PS I know this isn't about everything but there seems to be some
 interest in this topic on this forum.


  It is strange, because when I did mention that here, the answer was
 that it was perfectly normal and rational to believe in global conspiracy
 theories and irrational not to.

 That sounds a slightly strange view, imho. Who said that, may I ask, and
 in what context?

 (I will be sending my ninja assassins round to deal with them later, as
 per the standing instructions of the Grand High Adepts of the Illuminati...)


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Re: [foar] Amoeba's Secret now available in paperback

2014-04-05 Thread LizR
On 4 April 2014 20:25, Bruno Marchal marc...@ulb.ac.be wrote:


 On 03 Apr 2014, at 16:42, Gabriel Bodeen wrote:

 FWIW, on a flight this weekend I read a bit of Amoeba's Secret on my
 kindle while the stranger in the seat next to me was reading Tegmark's
 book.  If plane rides didn't make me fall unconscious almost immediately,
 that might have been grounds for an interesting live discussion. :)


 Lol.

 To sleep in a plane is like to sleep when you are high!


11 kilometres high!


 Some people do that. You miss the sun above the clouds! It is magic. I
 love plane.

I can't sleep on planes, last time I travelled from the UK to NZ I couldn't
sleep in the transit hotel either.

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Re: If you can't disprove the science, you can always try suing

2014-04-05 Thread Telmo Menezes
On Sat, Apr 5, 2014 at 11:47 AM, LizR lizj...@gmail.com wrote:

 That doesn't narrow it down too much.


Je m'accuse. I was one of them.

My point was that conspiracy theories, in the sense of power elites
secretly cooperating to further their own interests against the interests
of the majority are not, unfortunately, unusual events in History. We know
of countless examples of this happening in the past. I think it requires
some magical thinking to assume that this type of behaviour is absent from
our own times.

I further pointed out that broadly discrediting any hypothesis that some
elites might be conspiring against the common good, in broad strokes, seems
to benefit precisely the ones in power. Furthermore, thanks to Snowden, we
now have strong evidence of a large-scale conspiracy by western governments
that I would not believe one year ago. In this case I'm referring to the
secret implementation of global and total surveillance, with our tax money,
by the people we elected, to spy on us, infringing on constitutions.

I can't help but notice the very common rhetorical trick of using the nutty
conspiracy theories (UFOs, the Illuminati, fake moon landing, etc.) to
discredit the much more mundane and reasonable suspicions of elites abusing
their power. The paper you cite in this thread uses that trick too.

This broad denial of the existence of conspiracies is silly, if you think
about it. The official explanation for 9/11 is a conspiracy theory: some
religious arab fundamentalists conspired to create a global network of
terrorist cells with the objective of attacking western civilisation. They
hijacked planes and sent them into buildings and so on. If you don't
believe in this explanation, you are then forced to believe in some other
conspiracy.

Of course conspiracies exist. The current denial of this quite obvious fact
feels Orwellian, to be honest.

Best,
Telmo.




 On 5 April 2014 22:31, Quentin Anciaux allco...@gmail.com wrote:

 It was in one of the climate threads.
 Le 5 avr. 2014 09:11, LizR lizj...@gmail.com a écrit :

  On 4 April 2014 19:35, Quentin Anciaux allco...@gmail.com wrote:

 2014-04-04 1:29 GMT+02:00 LizR lizj...@gmail.com:

 Climate Deniers Intimidate Journal into Retracting Paper that Finds
 They Believe Conspiracy Theories

 Ironically, it looks like they are conspiring to silence any mention
 of this fact!


 http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/climate-deniers-intimidate-journal-into-retracting-paper-that-finds-they-believe-conspiracy-theories

 PS I know this isn't about everything but there seems to be some
 interest in this topic on this forum.


  It is strange, because when I did mention that here, the answer was
 that it was perfectly normal and rational to believe in global conspiracy
 theories and irrational not to.

 That sounds a slightly strange view, imho. Who said that, may I ask,
 and in what context?

 (I will be sending my ninja assassins round to deal with them later, as
 per the standing instructions of the Grand High Adepts of the Illuminati...)


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Re: My scepticism took a small knock today

2014-04-05 Thread Telmo Menezes
On Sat, Apr 5, 2014 at 12:00 AM, LizR lizj...@gmail.com wrote:

 Last night just before I woke up I had a dream about a guy coming to the
 door selling religion, so to speak - the details were a bit weird, as in
 most dreams, but that was the gist of it - I sent him away, saying no
 thanks we don't indulge or words to that effect.

 I've never had a dream of that sort, at least not that I can recall.

 A few minutes ago, for the first time since we've been in this house (1
 and a half years) - indeed the first time in a lot longer than that - a guy
 came to the door with a copy of the Watchtower and a personal message
 from God. I sent him away, but ... I was a bit shaken.

 Charles also had a weird recurring dream for several years about a
 situation he has now found himself in, to do with work, which has freaked
 him out a bit, although his makes more sense as a worry dream.

 Once is happenstance, twice is coincidence ... isn't it?


A boring explanation for this sort of thing is that the set of possible
coincidences is so large that it is likely that we find one once in a while.

Another one is that our brain is so good at detecting patterns that we
realize subconsciously that something is likely to happen, by pinking on
subtle clues from the environment.

But of course, who knows?

My favourite personal experience: once I was bored waiting on the subway
station. I entertained myself by imagining a mysterious story that involved
empty trains passing by the station without stopping, with the lights
turned off. The next train passed by without stopping, with the lights
turned off.

Telmo.



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Re: If you can't disprove the science, you can always try suing

2014-04-05 Thread Platonist Guitar Cowboy
On Sat, Apr 5, 2014 at 12:30 PM, Telmo Menezes te...@telmomenezes.comwrote:




 On Sat, Apr 5, 2014 at 11:47 AM, LizR lizj...@gmail.com wrote:

 That doesn't narrow it down too much.


 Je m'accuse. I was one of them.

 My point was that conspiracy theories, in the sense of power elites
 secretly cooperating to further their own interests against the interests
 of the majority are not, unfortunately, unusual events in History. We know
 of countless examples of this happening in the past. I think it requires
 some magical thinking to assume that this type of behaviour is absent from
 our own times.

 I further pointed out that broadly discrediting any hypothesis that some
 elites might be conspiring against the common good, in broad strokes, seems
 to benefit precisely the ones in power. Furthermore, thanks to Snowden, we
 now have strong evidence of a large-scale conspiracy by western governments
 that I would not believe one year ago. In this case I'm referring to the
 secret implementation of global and total surveillance, with our tax money,
 by the people we elected, to spy on us, infringing on constitutions.

 I can't help but notice the very common rhetorical trick of using the
 nutty conspiracy theories (UFOs, the Illuminati, fake moon landing, etc.)
 to discredit the much more mundane and reasonable suspicions of elites
 abusing their power. The paper you cite in this thread uses that trick too.

 This broad denial of the existence of conspiracies is silly, if you think
 about it. The official explanation for 9/11 is a conspiracy theory: some
 religious arab fundamentalists conspired to create a global network of
 terrorist cells with the objective of attacking western civilisation. They
 hijacked planes and sent them into buildings and so on. If you don't
 believe in this explanation, you are then forced to believe in some other
 conspiracy.

 Of course conspiracies exist. The current denial of this quite obvious
 fact feels Orwellian, to be honest.


To state conspiracy in some domain or level seriously, you have to be
precise and point accurately. Who, what, where, when, why? Just referring
to elites or entire industries, of which I am often guilty, doesn't
suffice. That's a sort of conspiracy comfort tale, which has the same
effect as denying damaging backdoor deals on a large scale exist: inaction,
no coordination, less people on the streets.

The distinction is not trivial, as the comfort tale is abused as some
explanatory weed, that illuminates all aspects of world politics, the
hopeless vista of the speaker's position; everything they disagree with
being part of the grand conspiracy and everything they agree with the
opposite.

The comfort tale use is not serious and more a psychology thing istm. PGC



 Best,
 Telmo.




 On 5 April 2014 22:31, Quentin Anciaux allco...@gmail.com wrote:

 It was in one of the climate threads.
 Le 5 avr. 2014 09:11, LizR lizj...@gmail.com a écrit :

  On 4 April 2014 19:35, Quentin Anciaux allco...@gmail.com wrote:

 2014-04-04 1:29 GMT+02:00 LizR lizj...@gmail.com:

 Climate Deniers Intimidate Journal into Retracting Paper that Finds
 They Believe Conspiracy Theories

 Ironically, it looks like they are conspiring to silence any mention
 of this fact!


 http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/climate-deniers-intimidate-journal-into-retracting-paper-that-finds-they-believe-conspiracy-theories

 PS I know this isn't about everything but there seems to be some
 interest in this topic on this forum.


  It is strange, because when I did mention that here, the answer was
 that it was perfectly normal and rational to believe in global conspiracy
 theories and irrational not to.

 That sounds a slightly strange view, imho. Who said that, may I ask,
 and in what context?

 (I will be sending my ninja assassins round to deal with them later, as
 per the standing instructions of the Grand High Adepts of the 
 Illuminati...)


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Re: My scepticism took a small knock today

2014-04-05 Thread Craig Weinberg


On Saturday, April 5, 2014 1:35:26 AM UTC-4, Liz R wrote:

 On 5 April 2014 15:10, Craig Weinberg whats...@gmail.com javascript:wrote:



 On Friday, April 4, 2014 6:00:09 PM UTC-4, Liz R wrote:

 Last night just before I woke up I had a dream about a guy coming to the 
 door selling religion, so to speak - the details were a bit weird, as in 
 most dreams, but that was the gist of it - I sent him away, saying no 
 thanks we don't indulge or words to that effect.

 I've never had a dream of that sort, at least not that I can recall.

 A few minutes ago, for the first time since we've been in this house (1 
 and a half years) - indeed the first time in a lot longer than that - a guy 
 came to the door with a copy of the Watchtower and a personal message 
 from God. I sent him away, but ... I was a bit shaken.

 Charles also had a weird recurring dream for several years about a 
 situation he has now found himself in, to do with work, which has freaked 
 him out a bit, although his makes more sense as a worry dream.

 Once is happenstance, twice is coincidence ... isn't it?


 Personally I think that you have to add in the fact that you took notice 
 of the happenstance, so already it was a potential coincidence. By the time 
 it recurs, it is slightly more than a coincidence. What does it mean? I 
 think not much but it offers a glimpse into the larger nature of time as 
 rooted in experience rather than physics.

 I'm not sure I understand what you mean. I took notice of it because 
 it was quite an unusual and memorable dream 


Right, that's why it was already a pattern. Being unusual and memorable is 
a kind of coincidence in itself. Your personal awareness is being alerted 
that there is something to notice that may be clarified later.
 

 - not so much the detail about the guy being a bible basher (although that 
 was unusual) but some of the attendant details - odd features that made me 
 tell Charles about it as soon as I woke up.


Yes, it's not about the contents of the dream as much as the alignment of 
the dream with future reality. It's just showing you that your awareness 
extends beyond your personal definition of here and now, and reflecting 
back to you that you consider that kind of thing an intrusion. Not that I'm 
a dream expert, it could mean something else, I'm just going by my 
experience with synchronicity. The fact that you told Charles about it too 
can be considered even another coincidence, as far as it being something 
that you chose to do in response to the dream instead of doing nothing and 
forgetting about it. 

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Re: Climate models

2014-04-05 Thread John Clark
On Fri, Apr 4, 2014 at 4:42 PM, Chris de Morsella cdemorse...@yahoo.comwrote:

 Solar PV has been here for 60 years and THOUSANDS of  times more money has
 been spent developing it than has been spent on LFTR RD, and yet solar PV
 is still just a rounding error in our total energy budget.



Haha - if you call the almost 150 GW of currently installed solar PV
 capacity a rounding error


I do indeed call 1.5*10^11 watt-hours a rounding error! Human technology
uses 1.5*10^17 watt-hours worldwide, so by your own figures photovoltaics
provides .0001% of that, assuming that the weather is always cloudless and
it never gets dark at night. And it wouldn't be even that big if
governments didn't bribe people with tax breaks to do things that would
otherwise make no economic sense.

 solar PV has also been doubling every two or so years for quite a while
 now and is projected to surpass 300GW of globally installed PV capacity by
 2017.


Big deal, then by 2017 PV would supply .0002% of our worldwide energy
needs,  assuming that the weather is always cloudless and it never gets
dark at night. And it's easy to see why you picked 2017, Germany has been
more aggressive in pushing photovoltaics with tax breaks and it got the
highest electrical bills in Europe as a reward, but even the Germans are
getting fed up with this nonsense and will pull the plug on solar subsidies
in 2018, so expect a crash then.


  Compare this capacity with the current capacity of LFTR which is 0 watts.


And by a curious coincidence zero is also the amount of money spent on LFTR
RD over the last 40 years.


  I want to know if I really understand you correctly, are you saying
 that a major problem (or even a minor problem) with using Thorium for
 energy is that there isn't enough of it? Is that really your position?



  No it is not my position and never has been


Good, then let's stop all this idiotic talk about recoverable Thorium
reserves.

 The big issues with LFTR are that it simply does not exist


True.

 and in order to bring it into existence would require a large scale
 concerted multi-decadal effort.


A keen grasp of the obvious. A changeover of the way human civilization is
powered from fossil fuel to ANYTHING elsewould require a large scale
concerted multi-decade effort.

 the world is facing a recoverable uranium peak that will be reached
 within a decade or two (at current extraction rates, if nuclear is ramped
 up peak uranium will be reached that much sooner).

  Uranium prices are the lowest they've been in  8 years.

  So?

So Economics 101 would say there is a contradiction between a recoverable
uranium peak will be reached within a decade or two and Uranium prices
are the lowest they've been in 8 years.

 I do not inhabit the same magical thinking universe you seem to live
 in.



 How nice for you, therefore by accepting my bet you can make an easy
 $1000.

  Nice polemic... what assurances do I even have that you would actually
 pay.

The same assurance that I have that you would actually pay.

  John K Clark

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Re: Video of VCR

2014-04-05 Thread Craig Weinberg


On Friday, April 4, 2014 2:07:47 PM UTC-4, Bruno Marchal wrote:


 On 04 Apr 2014, at 03:40, Craig Weinberg wrote:



 On Thursday, April 3, 2014 2:34:06 AM UTC-4, Bruno Marchal wrote:


 On 02 Apr 2014, at 21:34, Craig Weinberg wrote:



 On Wednesday, April 2, 2014 1:00:54 PM UTC-4, Bruno Marchal wrote:


 On 01 Apr 2014, at 21:55, Craig Weinberg wrote:

 I believe you, but all of the laws and creativity can still only occur in 
 the context of a sense making experience.


 Did I ever said the contrary?


 Yes, you are saying that multiplication and addition laws prefigure sense 
 making and sense experience.


 It makes the minimal sense *you* need to understand what we talk about. 
 That sense has already been studied and has itself some mathematical 
 representation. 
 Then, once you have the numbers, and the laws of + and *, you can prove 
 the existence of the universal numbers and their computations. The 
 universal numbers are the sense discovering machine. 


 It doesn't matter how minimal the sense is by our standards. In that frame 
 of reference, before we exist, it is much sense as there could ever be. If 
 there is sense to make + and *, then numbers can only act as conduit to 
 shape that sense, not to create it. You're interested in understanding 
 numbers, but I'm only interested in understanding the sense that makes 
 everything (including, but not limited to numbers).


 You ignore the discovery that numbers can understand and make sense of 
 many things, with reasonable and understandable definitions (with some 
 work).


 Just as we depend our eyes to make sense of our retinal cells sense, so to 
 do numbers act as lenses and filters to capture sense for us. That does not 
 mean that what sense is made through numbers belong to numbers.



 Of course. Comp might be false. ~comp, we agree on this since the start. 
 But it does not add anything to your []~comp. You persist to confuse 
 ~[]comp and []~comp.


 I'm not confusing them, I'm saying that []~comp is not untrue


 this means you say []~comp is true.


Yes.
 


 Or that you confuse, like you did already truth and knowledge, but in 
 that case you keep saying that you know []~comp, yet your argument above 
 was only for ~[]comp, on which I already agree, as it is a consequence of 
 comp.


I'm not saying that I know it, I'm saying that it makes more sense.
 




 just because it is outside of logic. When you arbitrarily begin from the 
 3p perspective, you can only see the flatland version of 1p intuition. You 
 would have to consider the possibility that numbers can come from this kind 
 of intuition and not the other way around. If you put your fingers in your 
 ears, and only listen to formalism, then you can only hear what formalism 
 has to say about intuition, which is... not much.


 Why?


Because of the incompleteness of all formal systems.
 










  

  





  






  


 All that can still make sense in the theory according to which sense is a 
 gift by Santa Klaus.

 And this is not an argument against your theory, nor against the existence 
 of Santa Klaus.

 Concerning your theory, I find it uninteresting because it abandons my 
 entire field of inquiry: making sense of sense.


 I don't think abandoned as much as frees it from trying to do the 
 impossible. I see mathematics as being even more useful when we know that 
 it is safe from gaining autonomous intent.



 Comp implies that Arithmetic is not free of autonomous intent, trivially. 
 But computer science provides many realities capable of justifying or 
 defining autonomous intent. 


 I was talking about the theory of comp being over-extended to try to 
 explain qualia and awareness.



 It helps to formulate the problems, and provides way to test indirect 
 predictions. 

 But again you are pursuing the confusion between ~[]comp and []~comp.


 There's no confusion. If comp cannot justify actual qualia, but ~comp can, 
 then we should give ~comp the benefit of the doubt.



 comp implies that ~comp has the benefits of the doubt. I told you this 
 many times. 
 As I just repeated above, this does not refute comp.


 What does it mean to give it the benefit of the doubt but then deny it?



 You are the only one who deny a theory here.


By saying that ~comp is only what seems true from the machine's 1p 
perspective, you are denying ~comp can be more true than comp.
 


 I never said that comp is true, or that comp is false. I say only that 
 comp leads to a Plato/aristotle reversal, to be short.


We agree on this from the start, but what I am saying is that Plato also 
can be reversed on the lower level, so that the ideal/arithmetic is 
generated statistically by aesthetics.
 


 But *you* say that comp is false, and that is why we ask you an argument. 
 The argument has to be understandable, and not of the type let us abandon 
 logic and ..., which is like God told me ..., and has zero argumentative 
 value.


We don't have to abandon logic, but 

Re: Video of VCR

2014-04-05 Thread Craig Weinberg


On Friday, April 4, 2014 2:07:47 PM UTC-4, Bruno Marchal wrote:


 On 04 Apr 2014, at 03:40, Craig Weinberg wrote:




  



  


 Logic is just required to be able to argue with others, and you do use 
 it, it seems to me, except that you seem to decide opportunistically to not 
 apply it to refute comp.


 Comp can't be refuted logically. 


 Sorry, but the whole point is that it might be. It can be refuted 
 logically, arithmetically, and empirically.


 It's a mirage. It seems like it could be refuted, but the built in bias of 
 logic overlooks the stacked deck. Just as emotions and ego have their 
 biases that warp our thinking, so too does logical thinking have an agenda 
 which undersignifies its competition.



 You are so wrong here that I have to pause. You talk in a way which 
 empties the dialog of any sense. You tell me in advance you need to be 
 illogical to refute my agnosticism in the matter. 


You don't have to be 'illogical', you just have to transcend strict 
logic...break the fourth wall...use some of that courage you were talking 
about. All that I am saying is that incompleteness supports the limits of 
logic, so that we cannot presume to hold sense to that standard if my view 
is true. 
 


 How could that conversation have sense? I put my hypotheses on the table, 
 but here you put a gun on the table.


Haha, yes, that's the thing, sense is tyrannical and violent. It acts like 
it is following laws but it cheats and then blames something else. At least 
I'm telling you it's a gun, you've convinced yourself that your gun is just 
a polite hypothesis.


 The choice is between logic, which is basically the most common part of 
 common sense, and war or violence.


It's precisely because logic is the most common part of common sense that 
it cannot parse the germ of sense, which is absolutely unprecedented. 
Identity is not just uncommon, but the opposite - unrepeatable, 
proprietary, anti-mechnical. There is no choice at all. There is the 
illusion of logic and the reality of having to carve some kind of genuine 
sanity out of this thing, moment by moment. If we wait for logic to give us 
permission, we lose the moment.
 


 Your theory is don't ask, but I realize also don't argue. 


Asking and arguing is great, but you can't get away from the fact that it 
doesn't make sense for the one who asks and argues to be a logical machine. 
It is comp which ultimately makes asking and arguing irrelevant, but it 
does so like a vampire - obligating us to invite us in..be fair to the 
imposter and let him take your brain. 
 


 That might be correct, and provable in your non-comp theory, but that is 
 not an argument against comp.
 (And this is no more an argument in favor of comp of course).


It is an argument against comp in my non-comp theory. If it comes down to 
choosing between the certainty of life and awareness as you know it and 
taking a gamble on logic and computation, do you say yes to the farmer? If 
we aren't being faced with death with a mad doctor as our only hope, would 
we gamble with our lives? Would a machine say yes to the farmer?
 






 Randomness comes up in comp predictions?



 Yes. At step seven, as the UD will notably dovetail on all normal 
 differentiation, on a continuum. The iterated WM self-duplication is a part 
 of UD*.


 What becomes random, and why?



 Are you OK with step 3 of the UDA?


 I don't think so. Teleportation?



 No, the FPI. The fact that you cannot predict, in your personal diary, 
 what you will write tomorrow, when you will be copied and sent at two 
 different places simultaneously (or not).


Nothing like that is going to happen. There aren't going to be any copies 
of me.
 





 Sociopaths and actors refute comp. Blindsight refutes comp. Keyboard 
 passwords refute comp. Sports refute comp. etc.


 You do have a problem with logic.


Maybe I do, because I don't see how that follows. When I list examples, you 
change the subject every time.
 






  

 I am just saying that you have not prove that comp is false. Telling me 
 that I have not proved comp will not do the work, as comp implies that no 
 such proof can ever exist.


 It's not a matter of proof, because proof has nothing to do with 
 consciousness. It is a matter of what makes more sense overall.



 That is wishful thinking. It is your right. I have no problem with 
 non-comp, but I do have problem with people using any theory pretending to 
 refute something, and actually unable to do it.


I'm refuting the metatheory that comp's refutability is related to its 
truth. I'm suggesting that specifically, comp is a theoretical construct 
which brilliantly reduces a theory of consciousness to simple elements, but 
that this is actually not related directly to consciousness, just as the 
shadow of a swimming pool is not full of water, even though it moves like 
water and reflects light like water.
 


 There is no problem working in different incompatible theories. But 

RE: Climate models

2014-04-05 Thread Chris de Morsella
 

 

From: everything-list@googlegroups.com
[mailto:everything-list@googlegroups.com] On Behalf Of John Clark
Sent: Saturday, April 05, 2014 9:32 AM
To: everything-list@googlegroups.com
Subject: Re: Climate models

 

On Fri, Apr 4, 2014 at 4:42 PM, Chris de Morsella cdemorse...@yahoo.com
wrote:

 

 Solar PV has been here for 60 years and THOUSANDS of  times more money has
been spent developing it than has been spent on LFTR RD, and yet solar PV
is still just a rounding error in our total energy budget. 

 

Haha - if you call the almost 150 GW of currently installed solar PV
capacity a rounding error 

 

I do indeed call 1.5*10^11 watt-hours a rounding error! Human technology
uses 1.5*10^17 watt-hours worldwide, so by your own figures photovoltaics
provides .0001% of that, assuming that the weather is always cloudless and
it never gets dark at night. And it wouldn't be even that big if governments
didn't bribe people with tax breaks to do things that would otherwise make
no economic sense. 

 

Haha John you really don't get energy metrics do you. By looking at your
above calculation it is clear that you do not understand the what the term
Capacity actually measures. Capacity DOES NOT measure total annual output,
but rather the capacity of the unit to produce. Thus a 1GW Capacity
nuclear power plant for example does not generate 1GW of electric power in
the course of a year.

A second ratio called Capacity Factor multiplied by the number of hours in
a year is applied to the Capacity to get a rough yardstick of how much power
the unit will actually generate over the course of a year. To use the
nuclear power plant example. Typically nuclear power plants operate at 80%
capacity so 1 GW * 8670 (hours in a year) * 80% = Annual expected output =
6936 GW hours / year

 

Now to help you understand how off your numbers where let's do the same
exercise for Solar PV capacity = 150GW The most widely used capacity factor
for solar PV is 20%, which is to say that if you have a 1Kw solar panel on
average (24X7X365) it will be producing 200 watts. Please understand that
this is the smoothed out average rate of production and a 20% capacity
factor takes into account the fact that the sun don't shine at night and it
is cloudy sometimes. That is why it is just 20% and not the 80% capacity
factor for a nuclear power plant.

Shall we do the math now. 150GW * 8670 (hours/year) * 20% (capacity factor)
= 260TW of annual electric output. This yields: 0.0017. A number that is
2,000 times larger than the number you erroneously produced. 

And this is the number after the 20% capacity factor has been applied - so
no coming back with the sun don't shine at night rebuttal (becauce that has
already been factored in)

Now that I have helped you understand how Solar PV contribution to our total
energy needs is actually 2000 times greater than what you believed it to be
will you reconsider your position. 

I doubt it because in you it seems to be ideologically driven - and thus is
not open to being changed by reason.

 

 solar PV has also been doubling every two or so years for quite a while
now and is projected to surpass 300GW of globally installed PV capacity by
2017. 

 

Big deal, then by 2017 PV would supply .0002% of our worldwide energy needs,
assuming that the weather is always cloudless and it never gets dark at
night. And it's easy to see why you picked 2017, Germany has been more
aggressive in pushing photovoltaics with tax breaks and it got the highest
electrical bills in Europe as a reward, but even the Germans are getting fed
up with this nonsense and will pull the plug on solar subsidies in 2018, so
expect a crash then.

 

Again terribly off the mark math. The actual figure is 0.4% of total global
energy consumption.

John keep doubling that every 2.5 years -  of course multiply it by 2,000
times to correct for your bad math based on your self-manifested poor grasp
of energy terms. Project ahead by fifteen years, which is five doublings and
we get 12.8% -- of ALL energy needs by 2033

Then things really start mushrooming. Another 2.5 years and that becomes
more than a quarter of all energy production.

The real question is how long can the doubling every 2.5 years (and it has
actually been growing at a faster rate than that, but I am being
conservative) - how long can this rate of geometric growth last. Well so far
it has been doing that for four or five decades and there are no signs of it
slowing down.

 

 


 

 Compare this capacity with the current capacity of LFTR which is 0 watts.

 

And by a curious coincidence zero is also the amount of money spent on LFTR
RD over the last 40 years. 

 

Yes I know. It is a dead technology. For whatever reason.


 

 I want to know if I really understand you correctly, are you saying that
a major problem (or even a minor problem) with using Thorium for energy is
that there isn't enough of it? Is that really your position?

 

 No it is not my position and never has been


Re: If you can't disprove the science, you can always try suing

2014-04-05 Thread Telmo Menezes
On Sat, Apr 5, 2014 at 4:19 PM, Platonist Guitar Cowboy 
multiplecit...@gmail.com wrote:




 On Sat, Apr 5, 2014 at 12:30 PM, Telmo Menezes te...@telmomenezes.comwrote:




 On Sat, Apr 5, 2014 at 11:47 AM, LizR lizj...@gmail.com wrote:

 That doesn't narrow it down too much.


 Je m'accuse. I was one of them.

 My point was that conspiracy theories, in the sense of power elites
 secretly cooperating to further their own interests against the interests
 of the majority are not, unfortunately, unusual events in History. We know
 of countless examples of this happening in the past. I think it requires
 some magical thinking to assume that this type of behaviour is absent from
 our own times.

 I further pointed out that broadly discrediting any hypothesis that some
 elites might be conspiring against the common good, in broad strokes, seems
 to benefit precisely the ones in power. Furthermore, thanks to Snowden, we
 now have strong evidence of a large-scale conspiracy by western governments
 that I would not believe one year ago. In this case I'm referring to the
 secret implementation of global and total surveillance, with our tax money,
 by the people we elected, to spy on us, infringing on constitutions.

 I can't help but notice the very common rhetorical trick of using the
 nutty conspiracy theories (UFOs, the Illuminati, fake moon landing, etc.)
 to discredit the much more mundane and reasonable suspicions of elites
 abusing their power. The paper you cite in this thread uses that trick too.

 This broad denial of the existence of conspiracies is silly, if you think
 about it. The official explanation for 9/11 is a conspiracy theory: some
 religious arab fundamentalists conspired to create a global network of
 terrorist cells with the objective of attacking western civilisation. They
 hijacked planes and sent them into buildings and so on. If you don't
 believe in this explanation, you are then forced to believe in some other
 conspiracy.

 Of course conspiracies exist. The current denial of this quite obvious
 fact feels Orwellian, to be honest.


 To state conspiracy in some domain or level seriously, you have to be
 precise and point accurately. Who, what, where, when, why? Just referring
 to elites or entire industries, of which I am often guilty, doesn't
 suffice.


Of course, especially in a court of law.

However, given the enormous information asymmetry between the elected and
the electors, this is usually impossible.
If we want to improve our understanding on how society works, it makes
sense to observe human behaviours. Then we can look for plausible
explanations that fit these behaviours. In the case of total surveillance,
attempts to censor the Internet and prohibition, the official explanations
look implausible to me, while some degree of conspiracy looks more
plausible -- which doesn't mean that I have the access to sufficient
information to answer your questions rigorously. We can discuss priors and
likelihoods with what we know. It's just empirical science, really.


 That's a sort of conspiracy comfort tale, which has the same effect as
 denying damaging backdoor deals on a large scale exist: inaction, no
 coordination, less people on the streets.

 The distinction is not trivial, as the comfort tale is abused as some
 explanatory weed, that illuminates all aspects of world politics, the
 hopeless vista of the speaker's position; everything they disagree with
 being part of the grand conspiracy and everything they agree with the
 opposite.

 The comfort tale use is not serious and more a psychology thing istm. PGC


Agreed. Binary thinking and one-size-fits-all explanations are the
hallmarks of fundamentalism. When doing intellectual exploration we have to
be careful, these traps are everywhere. The vaccine against them is doubt.

Cheers
Telmo.





 Best,
 Telmo.




 On 5 April 2014 22:31, Quentin Anciaux allco...@gmail.com wrote:

 It was in one of the climate threads.
 Le 5 avr. 2014 09:11, LizR lizj...@gmail.com a écrit :

  On 4 April 2014 19:35, Quentin Anciaux allco...@gmail.com wrote:

 2014-04-04 1:29 GMT+02:00 LizR lizj...@gmail.com:

 Climate Deniers Intimidate Journal into Retracting Paper that Finds
 They Believe Conspiracy Theories

 Ironically, it looks like they are conspiring to silence any mention
 of this fact!


 http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/climate-deniers-intimidate-journal-into-retracting-paper-that-finds-they-believe-conspiracy-theories

 PS I know this isn't about everything but there seems to be some
 interest in this topic on this forum.


  It is strange, because when I did mention that here, the answer was
 that it was perfectly normal and rational to believe in global conspiracy
 theories and irrational not to.

 That sounds a slightly strange view, imho. Who said that, may I ask,
 and in what context?

 (I will be sending my ninja assassins round to deal with them later,
 as per the standing instructions of the Grand High Adepts of the
 

Re: If you can't disprove the science, you can always try suing

2014-04-05 Thread LizR
On 5 April 2014 23:30, Telmo Menezes te...@telmomenezes.com wrote:

 On Sat, Apr 5, 2014 at 11:47 AM, LizR lizj...@gmail.com wrote:

 That doesn't narrow it down too much.


 Je m'accuse. I was one of them.

 My point was that conspiracy theories, in the sense of power elites
 secretly cooperating to further their own interests against the interests
 of the majority are not, unfortunately, unusual events in History. We know
 of countless examples of this happening in the past. I think it requires
 some magical thinking to assume that this type of behaviour is absent from
 our own times.

 I further pointed out that broadly discrediting any hypothesis that some
 elites might be conspiring against the common good, in broad strokes, seems
 to benefit precisely the ones in power. Furthermore, thanks to Snowden, we
 now have strong evidence of a large-scale conspiracy by western governments
 that I would not believe one year ago. In this case I'm referring to the
 secret implementation of global and total surveillance, with our tax money,
 by the people we elected, to spy on us, infringing on constitutions.

 I can't help but notice the very common rhetorical trick of using the
 nutty conspiracy theories (UFOs, the Illuminati, fake moon landing, etc.)
 to discredit the much more mundane and reasonable suspicions of elites
 abusing their power. The paper you cite in this thread uses that trick too.

 This broad denial of the existence of conspiracies is silly, if you think
 about it. The official explanation for 9/11 is a conspiracy theory: some
 religious arab fundamentalists conspired to create a global network of
 terrorist cells with the objective of attacking western civilisation. They
 hijacked planes and sent them into buildings and so on. If you don't
 believe in this explanation, you are then forced to believe in some other
 conspiracy.

 Of course conspiracies exist. The current denial of this quite obvious
 fact feels Orwellian, to be honest.

 OK, it seems likely that conspiracies exist, however it seems unlikely
that the IPCC is part of one of them (I've lost track of whether you're
claiming this or not, so please let me know) because the ruling interests
are in favour of business as usual - i.e. there is almost certainly a
conspiracy to discredit the science. The fact that they will use the idea
of conspiracy theories to do this is indeed Orwellian, not to mention
ironic.

How does the paper use this trick?

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Re: My scepticism took a small knock today

2014-04-05 Thread Kim Jones


 On 6 Apr 2014, at 2:23 am, Craig Weinberg whatsons...@gmail.com wrote:
 
 It's just showing you that your awareness extends beyond your personal 
 definition of here and now


Finally you got to it. It was a precognitive dream. I have had many, an 
enormous number throughout my life in fact, so I don't think we need to beat 
about the bush here. Some dreams foretell or synchronistically coincide with 
near-future events (usually cloaked in some symbolic representation). Period. 
Jung certainly thought so. We cannot explain this away.

Kim Jones B. Mus. GDTL

Email:   kimjo...@ozemail.com.au
 kmjco...@icloud.com
Mobile: 0450 963 719
Phone:  02 93894239
Web: http://www.eportfolio.kmjcommp.com


Never let your schooling get in the way of your education - Mark Twain

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Re: If you can't disprove the science, you can always try suing

2014-04-05 Thread John Mikes
Telmo and Liz:

Conspiracy theory my foot. It cuts into profits. Moloch is talking.

Gullibility (even the negative one) is based on ignorance, when I first
heard about the global warming threat (~ 30 years ago) I joked:
'my climate-log is incomplete for the past 30 (300?) million years',
 so I reserved my opinion' until I got more info realizing that recent
societal activity (industrial included) contributes to the greenhouse
effect vastly. Then I changed my position and became a fighter against Big
Money nonchallantly ruining the Earth for the profit in polluting freely.

Best: John M


On Sat, Apr 5, 2014 at 6:30 AM, Telmo Menezes te...@telmomenezes.comwrote:




 On Sat, Apr 5, 2014 at 11:47 AM, LizR lizj...@gmail.com wrote:

 That doesn't narrow it down too much.


 Je m'accuse. I was one of them.

 My point was that conspiracy theories, in the sense of power elites
 secretly cooperating to further their own interests against the interests
 of the majority are not, unfortunately, unusual events in History. We know
 of countless examples of this happening in the past. I think it requires
 some magical thinking to assume that this type of behaviour is absent from
 our own times.

 I further pointed out that broadly discrediting any hypothesis that some
 elites might be conspiring against the common good, in broad strokes, seems
 to benefit precisely the ones in power. Furthermore, thanks to Snowden, we
 now have strong evidence of a large-scale conspiracy by western governments
 that I would not believe one year ago. In this case I'm referring to the
 secret implementation of global and total surveillance, with our tax money,
 by the people we elected, to spy on us, infringing on constitutions.

 I can't help but notice the very common rhetorical trick of using the
 nutty conspiracy theories (UFOs, the Illuminati, fake moon landing, etc.)
 to discredit the much more mundane and reasonable suspicions of elites
 abusing their power. The paper you cite in this thread uses that trick too.

 This broad denial of the existence of conspiracies is silly, if you think
 about it. The official explanation for 9/11 is a conspiracy theory: some
 religious arab fundamentalists conspired to create a global network of
 terrorist cells with the objective of attacking western civilisation. They
 hijacked planes and sent them into buildings and so on. If you don't
 believe in this explanation, you are then forced to believe in some other
 conspiracy.

 Of course conspiracies exist. The current denial of this quite obvious
 fact feels Orwellian, to be honest.

 Best,
 Telmo.




 On 5 April 2014 22:31, Quentin Anciaux allco...@gmail.com wrote:

 It was in one of the climate threads.
 Le 5 avr. 2014 09:11, LizR lizj...@gmail.com a écrit :

  On 4 April 2014 19:35, Quentin Anciaux allco...@gmail.com wrote:

 2014-04-04 1:29 GMT+02:00 LizR lizj...@gmail.com:

 Climate Deniers Intimidate Journal into Retracting Paper that Finds
 They Believe Conspiracy Theories

 Ironically, it looks like they are conspiring to silence any mention
 of this fact!


 http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/climate-deniers-intimidate-journal-into-retracting-paper-that-finds-they-believe-conspiracy-theories

 PS I know this isn't about everything but there seems to be some
 interest in this topic on this forum.


  It is strange, because when I did mention that here, the answer was
 that it was perfectly normal and rational to believe in global conspiracy
 theories and irrational not to.

 That sounds a slightly strange view, imho. Who said that, may I ask,
 and in what context?

 (I will be sending my ninja assassins round to deal with them later, as
 per the standing instructions of the Grand High Adepts of the 
 Illuminati...)


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Re: If you can't disprove the science, you can always try suing

2014-04-05 Thread Telmo Menezes
On Sat, Apr 5, 2014 at 9:40 PM, LizR lizj...@gmail.com wrote:

 On 5 April 2014 23:30, Telmo Menezes te...@telmomenezes.com wrote:

 On Sat, Apr 5, 2014 at 11:47 AM, LizR lizj...@gmail.com wrote:

 That doesn't narrow it down too much.


 Je m'accuse. I was one of them.

 My point was that conspiracy theories, in the sense of power elites
 secretly cooperating to further their own interests against the interests
 of the majority are not, unfortunately, unusual events in History. We know
 of countless examples of this happening in the past. I think it requires
 some magical thinking to assume that this type of behaviour is absent from
 our own times.

 I further pointed out that broadly discrediting any hypothesis that some
 elites might be conspiring against the common good, in broad strokes, seems
 to benefit precisely the ones in power. Furthermore, thanks to Snowden, we
 now have strong evidence of a large-scale conspiracy by western governments
 that I would not believe one year ago. In this case I'm referring to the
 secret implementation of global and total surveillance, with our tax money,
 by the people we elected, to spy on us, infringing on constitutions.

 I can't help but notice the very common rhetorical trick of using the
 nutty conspiracy theories (UFOs, the Illuminati, fake moon landing, etc.)
 to discredit the much more mundane and reasonable suspicions of elites
 abusing their power. The paper you cite in this thread uses that trick too.

 This broad denial of the existence of conspiracies is silly, if you think
 about it. The official explanation for 9/11 is a conspiracy theory: some
 religious arab fundamentalists conspired to create a global network of
 terrorist cells with the objective of attacking western civilisation. They
 hijacked planes and sent them into buildings and so on. If you don't
 believe in this explanation, you are then forced to believe in some other
 conspiracy.

 Of course conspiracies exist. The current denial of this quite obvious
 fact feels Orwellian, to be honest.

 OK, it seems likely that conspiracies exist, however it seems unlikely
 that the IPCC is part of one of them (I've lost track of whether you're
 claiming this or not, so please let me know)


I'm not saying that.
On the matter of AGW, I am simply skeptical of the level of certainty that
is claimed for the models or that subsidising wind power or solar power is
a wise corse of action. Then I also suspect of opportunism, in the case of
the very shady business of carbon credits.


 because the ruling interests are in favour of business as usual - i.e.
 there is almost certainly a conspiracy to discredit the science.


Sure, I also find it quite likely that powerful fossil fuel companies are
lobbying or using even dirtier tricks to discredit AGW theory. On the other
hand, this says nothing about the truth status of AGW theory.


 The fact that they will use the idea of conspiracy theories to do this is
 indeed Orwellian, not to mention ironic.


Indeed. Governments are doing this too, by the way:
https://firstlook.org/theintercept/2014/02/24/jtrig-manipulation/

 How does the paper use this trick?

I find this paper to be a convoluted ad hominem. It finds a correlation
between rejection of AGW and a number of ridiculous beliefs -- and I don't
doubt this result, but then goes on to frame this as a possible reasons for
the rejection of science. There is nothing wrong in social scientists
studying the interaction between scientific activity and popular opinions.
The problem is that this paper takes a very naif view of science, where
instead of scientific theories we have just science, and instead of the
rejection of scientific theories we have the rejection of science. A
not so hidden pre-assumption of the paper is that scientific theories can
only be doubted for irrational reasons. Then it finds a group of people
with irrational beliefs that also question certain theories, and goes on to
propose that irrational ideation is the reason for the rejection of such
theories.

The problem is that, unfortunately, irrational ideation is still the norm
in our society. See the percentage of the population that still believes in
ancient desert religions. I bet you that a correlation could also be found
between popular acceptance of the AGW theory and the belief in crystal
healing, feng shui or the health benefits of veganism. Then one could use
this correlation to arrive at the opposite conclusion of the paper -- that
science is supported by irrational belief -- and it would be equally
invalid. All tribes have their irrational beliefs, this is not news and it
tell us nothing about the truth status of scientific theories.

Cheers,
Telmo.



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Re: If you can't disprove the science, you can always try suing

2014-04-05 Thread meekerdb

On 4/5/2014 12:40 PM, LizR wrote:
On 5 April 2014 23:30, Telmo Menezes te...@telmomenezes.com 
mailto:te...@telmomenezes.com wrote:


On Sat, Apr 5, 2014 at 11:47 AM, LizR lizj...@gmail.com 
mailto:lizj...@gmail.com
wrote:

That doesn't narrow it down too much.


Je m'accuse. I was one of them.

My point was that conspiracy theories, in the sense of power elites secretly
cooperating to further their own interests against the interests of the 
majority are
not, unfortunately, unusual events in History. We know of countless 
examples of this
happening in the past. I think it requires some magical thinking to assume 
that this
type of behaviour is absent from our own times.

I further pointed out that broadly discrediting any hypothesis that some 
elites
might be conspiring against the common good, in broad strokes, seems to 
benefit
precisely the ones in power. Furthermore, thanks to Snowden, we now have 
strong
evidence of a large-scale conspiracy by western governments that I would 
not believe
one year ago. In this case I'm referring to the secret implementation of 
global and
total surveillance, with our tax money, by the people we elected, to spy on 
us,
infringing on constitutions.

I can't help but notice the very common rhetorical trick of using the nutty
conspiracy theories (UFOs, the Illuminati, fake moon landing, etc.) to 
discredit the
much more mundane and reasonable suspicions of elites abusing their power. 
The paper
you cite in this thread uses that trick too.

This broad denial of the existence of conspiracies is silly, if you think 
about it.
The official explanation for 9/11 is a conspiracy theory: some religious 
arab
fundamentalists conspired to create a global network of terrorist cells 
with the
objective of attacking western civilisation. They hijacked planes and sent 
them into
buildings and so on. If you don't believe in this explanation, you are then 
forced
to believe in some other conspiracy.

Of course conspiracies exist. The current denial of this quite obvious fact 
feels
Orwellian, to be honest.

OK, it seems likely that conspiracies exist, however it seems unlikely that the IPCC is 
part of one of them (I've lost track of whether you're claiming this or not, so please 
let me know) because the ruling interests are in favour of business as usual - i.e. 
there is almost certainly a conspiracy to discredit the science. The fact that they will 
use the idea of conspiracy theories to do this is indeed Orwellian, not to mention ironic.


How does the paper use this trick?



I think Telmo makes conspiracies ubiquitous by calling any kind of cooperative effort 
which is not publicized a conspiracy - like Eisenhower's conspiracy to invade France.  
Legally a conspiracy is planning and preparation by two or more people to commit a crime. 
So most of what rich and powerful people do to keep themselves rich and powerful at the 
expense of others is not legally a conspiracy because there's no crime - the rich and 
powerful use laws, not break them.  But in common parlance a conspiracy *theory* refers to 
some group doing something nefarious while pretending to do something benign, and 
especially something contrary to their stated goals, e.g. Catholic clergy conspiring to 
abuse children.  It doesn't even have to be illegal, e.g. tobacco companies conspiring to 
obfuscate scientific evidence that smoking caused lung cancer.  It's not some group doing 
a bad thing that you might well expect them to do - like muslim fanatics crashing an airliner.


Brent

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Re: If you can't disprove the science, you can always try suing

2014-04-05 Thread meekerdb

On 4/5/2014 3:54 PM, Telmo Menezes wrote:
Sure, I also find it quite likely that powerful fossil fuel companies are lobbying or 
using even dirtier tricks to discredit AGW theory. On the other hand, this says nothing 
about the truth status of AGW theory.


Doesn't it?  If it weren't true, then dirty tricks wouldn't be needed to discredit it, 
would they?  It could be discredited like the flat earth, creationism, and 
cigarettes-are-good-for-you theories.


Brent

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Re: If you can't disprove the science, you can always try suing

2014-04-05 Thread Telmo Menezes
On Sun, Apr 6, 2014 at 1:01 AM, meekerdb meeke...@verizon.net wrote:

  On 4/5/2014 12:40 PM, LizR wrote:

  On 5 April 2014 23:30, Telmo Menezes te...@telmomenezes.com wrote:

   On Sat, Apr 5, 2014 at 11:47 AM, LizR lizj...@gmail.com wrote:

 That doesn't narrow it down too much.


  Je m'accuse. I was one of them.

  My point was that conspiracy theories, in the sense of power elites
 secretly cooperating to further their own interests against the interests
 of the majority are not, unfortunately, unusual events in History. We know
 of countless examples of this happening in the past. I think it requires
 some magical thinking to assume that this type of behaviour is absent from
 our own times.

  I further pointed out that broadly discrediting any hypothesis that
 some elites might be conspiring against the common good, in broad strokes,
 seems to benefit precisely the ones in power. Furthermore, thanks to
 Snowden, we now have strong evidence of a large-scale conspiracy by western
 governments that I would not believe one year ago. In this case I'm
 referring to the secret implementation of global and total surveillance,
 with our tax money, by the people we elected, to spy on us, infringing on
 constitutions.

  I can't help but notice the very common rhetorical trick of using the
 nutty conspiracy theories (UFOs, the Illuminati, fake moon landing, etc.)
 to discredit the much more mundane and reasonable suspicions of elites
 abusing their power. The paper you cite in this thread uses that trick too.

  This broad denial of the existence of conspiracies is silly, if you
 think about it. The official explanation for 9/11 is a conspiracy theory:
 some religious arab fundamentalists conspired to create a global network of
 terrorist cells with the objective of attacking western civilisation. They
 hijacked planes and sent them into buildings and so on. If you don't
 believe in this explanation, you are then forced to believe in some other
 conspiracy.

  Of course conspiracies exist. The current denial of this quite obvious
 fact feels Orwellian, to be honest.

OK, it seems likely that conspiracies exist, however it seems
 unlikely that the IPCC is part of one of them (I've lost track of whether
 you're claiming this or not, so please let me know) because the ruling
 interests are in favour of business as usual - i.e. there is almost
 certainly a conspiracy to discredit the science. The fact that they will
 use the idea of conspiracy theories to do this is indeed Orwellian, not to
 mention ironic.

 How does the paper use this trick?


 I think Telmo makes conspiracies ubiquitous by calling any kind of
 cooperative effort which is not publicized a conspiracy - like
 Eisenhower's conspiracy to invade France.  Legally a conspiracy is planning
 and preparation by two or more people to commit a crime.  So most of what
 rich and powerful people do to keep themselves rich and powerful at the
 expense of others is not legally a conspiracy because there's no crime -
 the rich and powerful use laws, not break them.  But in common parlance a
 conspiracy *theory* refers to some group doing something nefarious while
 pretending to do something benign, and especially something contrary to
 their stated goals, e.g. Catholic clergy conspiring to abuse children.


Or prohibition, or the implementation of anti-constitutional total
surveillance, or starting wars under false pretences, or using government
agencies like the IRS to harass political opponents, or trying to silence
journalists. We have compelling evidence that governments have been
engaging in all of these types of conspiracy very recently, and they mach
your definition.

So my point is that it is not reasonable to dismiss the possibility of a
conspiracy by government actors just on the grounds of it being a
conspiracy theory. We need more to decide one way or the other.

Telmo.


 It doesn't even have to be illegal, e.g. tobacco companies conspiring to
 obfuscate scientific evidence that smoking caused lung cancer.  It's not
 some group doing a bad thing that you might well expect them to do - like
 muslim fanatics crashing an airliner.

 Brent

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For more 

Re: If you can't disprove the science, you can always try suing

2014-04-05 Thread Telmo Menezes
On Sun, Apr 6, 2014 at 1:04 AM, meekerdb meeke...@verizon.net wrote:

  On 4/5/2014 3:54 PM, Telmo Menezes wrote:

 Sure, I also find it quite likely that powerful fossil fuel companies are
 lobbying or using even dirtier tricks to discredit AGW theory. On the other
 hand, this says nothing about the truth status of AGW theory.


 Doesn't it?  If it weren't true, then dirty tricks wouldn't be needed to
 discredit it, would they?  It could be discredited like the flat earth,
 creationism, and cigarettes-are-good-for-you theories.


If that was true, the world would be free from religious superstition and
electing a president that claims to believe in a book of old desert myths
would be unthinkable.

Telmo.



 Brent

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Re: If you can't disprove the science, you can always try suing

2014-04-05 Thread meekerdb

On 4/5/2014 4:13 PM, Telmo Menezes wrote:




On Sun, Apr 6, 2014 at 1:01 AM, meekerdb meeke...@verizon.net 
mailto:meeke...@verizon.net wrote:


On 4/5/2014 12:40 PM, LizR wrote:

On 5 April 2014 23:30, Telmo Menezes te...@telmomenezes.com
mailto:te...@telmomenezes.com wrote:

On Sat, Apr 5, 2014 at 11:47 AM, LizR lizj...@gmail.com
mailto:lizj...@gmail.com wrote:

That doesn't narrow it down too much.


Je m'accuse. I was one of them.

My point was that conspiracy theories, in the sense of power elites 
secretly
cooperating to further their own interests against the interests of the
majority are not, unfortunately, unusual events in History. We know of
countless examples of this happening in the past. I think it requires 
some
magical thinking to assume that this type of behaviour is absent from 
our own
times.

I further pointed out that broadly discrediting any hypothesis that 
some elites
might be conspiring against the common good, in broad strokes, seems to 
benefit
precisely the ones in power. Furthermore, thanks to Snowden, we now 
have strong
evidence of a large-scale conspiracy by western governments that I 
would not
believe one year ago. In this case I'm referring to the secret 
implementation
of global and total surveillance, with our tax money, by the people we 
elected,
to spy on us, infringing on constitutions.

I can't help but notice the very common rhetorical trick of using the 
nutty
conspiracy theories (UFOs, the Illuminati, fake moon landing, etc.) to
discredit the much more mundane and reasonable suspicions of elites 
abusing
their power. The paper you cite in this thread uses that trick too.

This broad denial of the existence of conspiracies is silly, if you 
think about
it. The official explanation for 9/11 is a conspiracy theory: some 
religious
arab fundamentalists conspired to create a global network of terrorist 
cells
with the objective of attacking western civilisation. They hijacked 
planes and
sent them into buildings and so on. If you don't believe in this 
explanation,
you are then forced to believe in some other conspiracy.

Of course conspiracies exist. The current denial of this quite obvious 
fact
feels Orwellian, to be honest.

OK, it seems likely that conspiracies exist, however it seems unlikely that 
the
IPCC is part of one of them (I've lost track of whether you're claiming 
this or
not, so please let me know) because the ruling interests are in favour of 
business
as usual - i.e. there is almost certainly a conspiracy to discredit the 
science.
The fact that they will use the idea of conspiracy theories to do this is 
indeed
Orwellian, not to mention ironic.

How does the paper use this trick?



I think Telmo makes conspiracies ubiquitous by calling any kind of 
cooperative
effort which is not publicized a conspiracy - like Eisenhower's 
conspiracy to
invade France.  Legally a conspiracy is planning and preparation by two or 
more
people to commit a crime.  So most of what rich and powerful people do to 
keep
themselves rich and powerful at the expense of others is not legally a 
conspiracy
because there's no crime - the rich and powerful use laws, not break them.  
But in
common parlance a conspiracy *theory* refers to some group doing something 
nefarious
while pretending to do something benign, and especially something contrary 
to their
stated goals, e.g. Catholic clergy conspiring to abuse children.


Or prohibition,


That makes my point.  Prohibition wasn't illegal, it was a law and it was promoted and 
passed by people who had openly advocated it for years - and for some good reasons.  But 
you want to call it a conspiracy just because you disagree with it.  You might as well 
call the civil rights act of 1963 a conspiracy.



or the implementation of anti-constitutional total surveillance,


It's not clear that collecting records of who calls overseas is unconstitutional; no court 
has ruled it such.



or starting wars under false pretences,


Yes, the the Iraq war was very bad - but was it a conspiracy.  It wasn't secret, the 
neo-cons in the the Bush administration had advocated military overthrow of Sadam Hussein 
for years.  The even had a website, Plan for a New American Century, which hosted 
scholarly(?) papers about the mideast and why the U.S. should make Lybia, Syria, Iraq, and 
Iran into western style democracies.


or using government agencies like the IRS to harass political opponents, or trying to 
silence journalists.


That's an invented charge.  The IRS was just doing it's job screening organizations that 
claimed 501c status, which forbids *any* political activity.


We have compelling evidence that governments have been 

Re: If you can't disprove the science, you can always try suing

2014-04-05 Thread meekerdb

On 4/5/2014 4:18 PM, Telmo Menezes wrote:




On Sun, Apr 6, 2014 at 1:04 AM, meekerdb meeke...@verizon.net 
mailto:meeke...@verizon.net wrote:


On 4/5/2014 3:54 PM, Telmo Menezes wrote:

Sure, I also find it quite likely that powerful fossil fuel companies are 
lobbying
or using even dirtier tricks to discredit AGW theory. On the other hand, 
this says
nothing about the truth status of AGW theory.


Doesn't it?  If it weren't true, then dirty tricks wouldn't be needed to 
discredit
it, would they?  It could be discredited like the flat earth, creationism, 
and
cigarettes-are-good-for-you theories.


If that was true, the world would be free from religious superstition


So do you classify religion as a conspiracy?  Do you think clergy are really all atheists 
and are just conspiring to fool others?


Brent

and electing a president that claims to believe in a book of old desert myths would be 
unthinkable.


Telmo.


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Re: My scepticism took a small knock today

2014-04-05 Thread Russell Standish
On Sun, Apr 06, 2014 at 05:42:10AM +1000, Kim Jones wrote:
 
 
 Finally you got to it. It was a precognitive dream. I have had many, an 
 enormous number throughout my life in fact, so I don't think we need to beat 
 about the bush here. Some dreams foretell or synchronistically coincide 
 with near-future events (usually cloaked in some symbolic representation). 
 Period. Jung certainly thought so. We cannot explain this away.
 

Not sure about that. It's happened maybe 2-3 times to me in my whole
life. I would call that rate coincidence. Not statistically
significant. YMMV :). Also, presumably by chance, some people's rate
of precognitive dreams  would be much higher, just like some people
are more accident prone than others.

Cheers

-- 


Prof Russell Standish  Phone 0425 253119 (mobile)
Principal, High Performance Coders
Visiting Professor of Mathematics  hpco...@hpcoders.com.au
University of New South Wales  http://www.hpcoders.com.au

 Latest project: The Amoeba's Secret 
 (http://www.hpcoders.com.au/AmoebasSecret.html)


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