Re: [FRIAM] Fundamentalist-based Republicanism

2008-11-03 Thread Douglas Roberts
Owen,

It's more like a chronic irritation than actual pain, but I hear your
rebuke.   I suppose that when the RWRDDA movement (Right  Wing Religious
Dumbing Down of America) movement becomes sufficiently intolerable to more
of our scientific community, additional folks will begin to speak out on the
subject.  Perhaps if we get a Creationist Vice President the process will
accelerate!

Until then, I'll pipe down.

--Doug

On Sun, Nov 2, 2008 at 10:22 PM, Owen Densmore [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:

 On Nov 2, 2008, at 12:35 PM, Douglas Roberts wrote:

 How many people on this list *don't* think that religion has been , and
 continues to be a (the?) major factor in American politics?


 Doug, I really do feel your pain.  But cut us a bit of slack, OK?
  Fundamentalism is certainly an issue, but not *all* religion is
 fundamentalist.  Friam is a fairly rich and diverse community, a number of
 whom are religious.  We have Christians, Jews, Muslims, Buddhists and more.
  Show them some respect, please.

 Would it surprise you to know that one of the first publications on Chaos
 and Complexity is from the Vatican Observatory press?  The first chapter
 includes Crutchfield, Farmer, Shaw, and Packard?

 Do you know that the current pope advised against single-issue voting on
 abortion, and advised that religious voters consider that hunger,
 homelessness, sickness, war, etc are also anti-life?

  What ever happened to the precept of separation of church and state,
 anyhow?


 Christ talks about it: render unto Caesar what is Caesar's.  So do
 Buddhists.  If politicians have forgotten that, then bad on them, not the
 church.

 I don't want to start a flame war on religion, but please remember you have
 religious family and friends who are kind, gentle, compassionate and as
 anti-fundamentalist as you are.

-- Owen

 



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Re: [FRIAM] Fundamentalist-based Republicanism

2008-11-03 Thread Douglas Roberts
The Los Alamos High School teachers were told last year that they could no
longer teach evolution in their classes.  Pretty soon dogma will be all that
is allowed to be taught.  One way to eliminate competition...

--Doug

On Mon, Nov 3, 2008 at 7:38 AM, Marcus G. Daniels [EMAIL PROTECTED]wrote:

 Douglas Roberts wrote:

 I suppose that when the RWRDDA movement (Right  Wing Religious Dumbing
 Down of America) movement becomes sufficiently intolerable to more of our
 scientific community, additional folks will begin to speak out on the
 subject.  Perhaps if we get a Creationist Vice President the process will
 accelerate!

  Speaking of Mavericks, there's an entertaining Nova called Hunting the
 Hidden Dimension starring among others Benoit Mandelbrot, and SFI's
 Geoffrey West, James Brown, and Brian Enquist.   In particular, the program
 notes how the mathematics establishment regarded Mandelbrot's research as
 not being an important contribution.  There are other sources of dogma
 besides from religious folks.   Dogma also can be advanced when scientists
 have their prominence threatened by competing approaches...

 Marcus




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Re: [FRIAM] Fundamentalist-based Republicanism

2008-11-03 Thread Pamela McCorduck
I did not see that program, but Joe says he recently saw Mandelbrot 
(perhaps on that program) assigned by the interviewer credit for the 
butterfly effect. Instead of saying oh no, that was Ed Lorenz, he just 
sat there smiling, not contradicting. Bad form, very bad form.



On Nov 3, 2008, at 9:38 AM, Marcus G. Daniels wrote:


Douglas Roberts wrote:
I suppose that when the RWRDDA movement (Right  Wing Religious 
Dumbing Down of America) movement becomes sufficiently intolerable to 
more of our scientific community, additional folks will begin to 
speak out on the subject.  Perhaps if we get a Creationist Vice 
President the process will accelerate!


Speaking of Mavericks, there's an entertaining Nova called Hunting 
the Hidden Dimension starring among others Benoit Mandelbrot, and 
SFI's Geoffrey West, James Brown, and Brian Enquist.   In particular, 
the program notes how the mathematics establishment regarded 
Mandelbrot's research as not being an important contribution.  There 
are other sources of dogma besides from religious folks.   Dogma also 
can be advanced when scientists have their prominence threatened by 
competing approaches...


Marcus


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If ever there was a book calculated to make a man in love with its 
author, this appears to me to be the book.


William Godwin, on reading Mary Wollstonecraft's first book



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Re: [FRIAM] Fundamentalist-based Republicanism

2008-11-03 Thread Pamela McCorduck

Los Alamos? And the parents rose up as one?


On Nov 3, 2008, at 9:42 AM, Douglas Roberts wrote:

The Los Alamos High School teachers were told last year that they 
could no longer teach evolution in their classes.  Pretty soon dogma 
will be all that is allowed to be taught.  One way to eliminate 
competition...


--Doug

On Mon, Nov 3, 2008 at 7:38 AM, Marcus G. Daniels 
[EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:

Douglas Roberts wrote:
I suppose that when the RWRDDA movement (Right  Wing Religious 
Dumbing Down of America) movement becomes sufficiently intolerable 
to more of our scientific community, additional folks will begin to 
speak out on the subject.  Perhaps if we get a Creationist Vice 
President the process will accelerate!





 Marcus




FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org


If ever there was a book calculated to make a man in love with its 
author, this appears to me to be the book.


William Godwin, on reading Mary Wollstonecraft's first book

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Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
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Re: [FRIAM] Fundamentalist-based Republicanism

2008-11-03 Thread Kari Sentz
I don't believe this is true about LAHS not teaching evolution. (It's
easily verified.) It is very rare for a scientist not to support the
teaching of evolution and freedom of education.  What is the source of
this information?  This is something that would have both students and
parents marching in the street...not silent.

It is not as Republican a county as you think, the county is 50%-50% and
very likely to go to Obama tomorrow.

Kari
 A thundering silence was heard throughout the county. But then, it is a
 Republican county, by and large.

 The creeping, incipient USA religiou-fication  process has gone largely
 unopposed, and not just in our state's smallest county.

 But I promised Owen I'd give it a break...

 On Mon, Nov 3, 2008 at 8:17 AM, Pamela McCorduck [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:

 Los Alamos? And the parents rose up as one?


 On Nov 3, 2008, at 9:42 AM, Douglas Roberts wrote:

  The Los Alamos High School teachers were told last year that they could
 no
 longer teach evolution in their classes.  Pretty soon dogma will be all
 that
 is allowed to be taught.  One way to eliminate competition...

 --Doug

 On Mon, Nov 3, 2008 at 7:38 AM, Marcus G. Daniels
 [EMAIL PROTECTED]
 wrote:

 Douglas Roberts wrote:

 I suppose that when the RWRDDA movement (Right  Wing Religious
 Dumbing
 Down of America) movement becomes sufficiently intolerable to more of
 our
 scientific community, additional folks will begin to speak out on the
 subject.  Perhaps if we get a Creationist Vice President the process
 will
 accelerate!



  Marcus


  
 FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
 Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
 lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org


 If ever there was a book calculated to make a man in love with its
 author,
 this appears to me to be the book.

William Godwin, on reading Mary Wollstonecraft's first
 book

 
 FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
 Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
 lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org

 
 FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
 Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
 lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org



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Re: [FRIAM] Fundamentalist-based Republicanism

2008-11-03 Thread Douglas Roberts
Believe what you want.  My wife taught at LA High School for 20 years.  She
and her colleagues were told that they could no longer teach evolution in
their science classes last year.  Because of this, in part, she retired.

On Mon, Nov 3, 2008 at 8:57 AM, Kari Sentz [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:

 I don't believe this is true about LAHS not teaching evolution. (It's
 easily verified.) It is very rare for a scientist not to support the
 teaching of evolution and freedom of education.  What is the source of
 this information?  This is something that would have both students and
 parents marching in the street...not silent.

 It is not as Republican a county as you think, the county is 50%-50% and
 very likely to go to Obama tomorrow.

 Kari
  A thundering silence was heard throughout the county. But then, it is a
  Republican county, by and large.
 
  The creeping, incipient USA religiou-fication  process has gone largely
  unopposed, and not just in our state's smallest county.
 
  But I promised Owen I'd give it a break...
 
  On Mon, Nov 3, 2008 at 8:17 AM, Pamela McCorduck [EMAIL PROTECTED]
 wrote:
 
  Los Alamos? And the parents rose up as one?
 
 
  On Nov 3, 2008, at 9:42 AM, Douglas Roberts wrote:
 
   The Los Alamos High School teachers were told last year that they could
  no
  longer teach evolution in their classes.  Pretty soon dogma will be all
  that
  is allowed to be taught.  One way to eliminate competition...
 
  --Doug
 
  On Mon, Nov 3, 2008 at 7:38 AM, Marcus G. Daniels
  [EMAIL PROTECTED]
  wrote:
 
  Douglas Roberts wrote:
 
  I suppose that when the RWRDDA movement (Right  Wing Religious
  Dumbing
  Down of America) movement becomes sufficiently intolerable to more of
  our
  scientific community, additional folks will begin to speak out on the
  subject.  Perhaps if we get a Creationist Vice President the process
  will
  accelerate!
 
 
 
   Marcus
 
 
   
  FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
  Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
  lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org
 
 
  If ever there was a book calculated to make a man in love with its
  author,
  this appears to me to be the book.
 
 William Godwin, on reading Mary Wollstonecraft's first
  book
 
  
  FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
  Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
  lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org
 
  
  FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
  Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
  lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org


 
 FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
 Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
 lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org




-- 
Doug Roberts, RTI International
[EMAIL PROTECTED]
[EMAIL PROTECTED]
505-455-7333 - Office
505-670-8195 - Cell

FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
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Re: [FRIAM] Fundamentalist-based Republicanism

2008-11-03 Thread Douglas Roberts
Clarification (I just asked my wife for details):  the (verbal) directive to
not teach evolution in  Los Alamos High School science classes was issued
three years ago.  Some of the teachers chose to circumvent this directive by
teaching from the historical perspective of Darwin's life.

On Mon, Nov 3, 2008 at 9:01 AM, Douglas Roberts [EMAIL PROTECTED]wrote:

 Believe what you want.  My wife taught at LA High School for 20 years.  She
 and her colleagues were told that they could no longer teach evolution in
 their science classes last year.  Because of this, in part, she retired.


 On Mon, Nov 3, 2008 at 8:57 AM, Kari Sentz [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:

 I don't believe this is true about LAHS not teaching evolution. (It's
 easily verified.) It is very rare for a scientist not to support the
 teaching of evolution and freedom of education.  What is the source of
 this information?  This is something that would have both students and
 parents marching in the street...not silent.

 It is not as Republican a county as you think, the county is 50%-50% and
 very likely to go to Obama tomorrow.

 Kari
  A thundering silence was heard throughout the county. But then, it is a
  Republican county, by and large.
 
  The creeping, incipient USA religiou-fication  process has gone largely
  unopposed, and not just in our state's smallest county.
 
  But I promised Owen I'd give it a break...
 
  On Mon, Nov 3, 2008 at 8:17 AM, Pamela McCorduck [EMAIL PROTECTED]
 wrote:
 
  Los Alamos? And the parents rose up as one?
 
 
  On Nov 3, 2008, at 9:42 AM, Douglas Roberts wrote:
 
   The Los Alamos High School teachers were told last year that they
 could
  no
  longer teach evolution in their classes.  Pretty soon dogma will be
 all
  that
  is allowed to be taught.  One way to eliminate competition...
 
  --Doug
 
  On Mon, Nov 3, 2008 at 7:38 AM, Marcus G. Daniels
  [EMAIL PROTECTED]
  wrote:
 
  Douglas Roberts wrote:
 
  I suppose that when the RWRDDA movement (Right  Wing Religious
  Dumbing
  Down of America) movement becomes sufficiently intolerable to more
 of
  our
  scientific community, additional folks will begin to speak out on
 the
  subject.  Perhaps if we get a Creationist Vice President the process
  will
  accelerate!
 
 
 
   Marcus
 
 
   
  FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
  Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
  lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org
 
 
  If ever there was a book calculated to make a man in love with its
  author,
  this appears to me to be the book.
 
 William Godwin, on reading Mary Wollstonecraft's first
  book
 
  
  FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
  Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
  lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org
 
  
  FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
  Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
  lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org


 
 FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
 Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
 lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org




 --
 Doug Roberts, RTI International
 [EMAIL PROTECTED]
 [EMAIL PROTECTED]
 505-455-7333 - Office
 505-670-8195 - Cell




-- 
Doug Roberts, RTI International
[EMAIL PROTECTED]
[EMAIL PROTECTED]
505-455-7333 - Office
505-670-8195 - Cell

FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org

Re: [FRIAM] Ruth Charney on Modeling with Cubes - The readable one

2008-11-03 Thread peter

Here is the actual presentation that was unreadable on Youtube

Ruth sent it to me and Steve reposted it at

http://www.friam.org/Charney_MAA10-08.pdf

She does remarkable work and thanks Tom for the heads up

Will do the same with Marty Golibitskys similar presentation  Patterns Patterns 
Everywhere  when I get it

( : ( : pete

Peter Baston

*IDEAS*

/www.ideapete.com/ http://www.ideapete.com/








Tom Johnson wrote:

From the Internet Scout
 

 
*Ruth Charney on Modeling with Cubes [Macromedia Flash Player]*


http://www.maa.org/news/102308charney.html

The Mathematical Association of America (MAA) continues to build on 
their already solid online presence with the addition of this lecture 
by noted mathematician and scholar Professor Ruth Charney. This 
particular lecture was given at the MAA's Carriage House Conference 
Center in the fall of 2008 and it deals with how cubes can be used to 
represent a variety of systems. As Charney notes, The geometry of 
these spaces is strange, complicated, and a lot of fun to study. 
Visitors to the site can watch several particularly lucid examples 
from Charney's talk, read her biography, and also read a detailed 
interview with her conducted by Michael Pearson. [KMG] 
https://mail.google.com/mail/?ui=1view=pagename=gpver=sh3fib53pgpk#11d532fd493691f2_team 




tj
==
J. T. Johnson
Institute for Analytic Journalism -- Santa Fe, NM USA
www.analyticjournalism.com http://www.analyticjournalism.com
505.577.6482(c)505.473.9646(h)
http://www.jtjohnson.com [EMAIL PROTECTED] 
mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED]


You never change things by fighting the existing reality.
To change something, build a new model that makes the
existing model obsolete.
-- Buckminster Fuller
== 

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Re: [FRIAM] Fundamentalist-based Republicanism

2008-11-03 Thread Douglas Roberts
I suppose it would depend on what the motivation was for doing so in lieu of
also teaching evolution.  The reason for the teach no more evolution
directive in Los Alamos was due to pressure from the Religious Right.  That,
and a hopelessly corrupted US-wide educational system which provided an
environment that was prone to caving in to the demands of the Moral
Majority.

--Doug

BTW, I'd like to point out that Creationism and Creationist beliefs fly in
the face of modern cosmology.

On Mon, Nov 3, 2008 at 9:59 AM, Owen Densmore [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:



 Do you think it might be more successful to just teach genetics in high
 school?

-- Owen





 
 FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
 Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
 lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org




-- 
Doug Roberts, RTI International
[EMAIL PROTECTED]
[EMAIL PROTECTED]
505-455-7333 - Office
505-670-8195 - Cell

FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
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Re: [FRIAM] Fundamentalist-based Republicanism

2008-11-03 Thread Owen Densmore

On Nov 3, 2008, at 10:08 AM, Douglas Roberts wrote:
I suppose it would depend on what the motivation was for doing so in  
lieu of

also teaching evolution.  The reason for the teach no more evolution
directive in Los Alamos was due to pressure from the Religious  
Right.  That,
and a hopelessly corrupted US-wide educational system which provided  
an

environment that was prone to caving in to the demands of the Moral
Majority.


That really is sad.  I had no idea Los Alamos was so impaired.

BTW, I'd like to point out that Creationism and Creationist  
beliefs fly in

the face of modern cosmology.


Yes, and they do not get modern cosmology tossed out of the schools.   
Why?  Its solid formal foundations.


If you go to:
  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Evolution
.. you'll see that evolution almost immediately discusses DNA  
structures and so on.  They break away from the story of evolution  
into its most formalizable successes.  I seriously doubt  
fundamentalists could cause DNA genetics to get tossed from our schools.


Googling Evolution Textbook, I find similar results: they get to  
genetics etc pretty quickly.  (Although I really appreciate other  
forms of evolution mechanics like Lynn Margulis: Microcosmos: Four  
Billion Years of Microbial Evolution)


It seems to me that God did a great job with evolution.  I mean, such  
a great process.  Create some stuff, invent time, set the clock  
ticking and you're done.  Brilliant!  Then He gets to focus on the  
things that really matter like compassion, karma, love and so on.   
(I'd better ground myself!)


-- Owen





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Re: [FRIAM] Fundamentalist-based Republicanism

2008-11-03 Thread Steve Smith




Douglas Roberts wrote:
Clarification (I just asked my wife for details): the
(verbal) directive to not teach evolution in Los Alamos High School
science classes was issued three years ago. Some of the teachers chose
to circumvent this directive by teaching from the historical
perspective of Darwin's life.
  


I can report on contrasting (but similar) situation where a friend was
teaching Laser Science and Holography in a High School in Missouri a
couple of years ago. It might not surprise us that in Missouri, a
teacher would be told not to teach Evolution. This friend was not told
not to teach evolution (it wasn't in his curricula anyway), but after
many months of intriguing young minds with the wonders of science and
technology, he managed to make some statement (I can't remember the
particulars) that tied lots of what he'd said to them to the dirtiest
of words - Evolution. After the reactions of most of his
promising young science students made him aware that he'd stepped in
something messy, he went to the principal to ask what the school policy
was (assuming the worst). The principal simply said "You are on your
own". The implied message was that the school would not interfere if
he wanted to (needed to) go into such things, but that neither would
they defend him against irate parents (and students) either.

Being an easy-going but determined sort, he continued (carefully) with
his class to engage them in all things scientific that he could and
when he stumbled into the no-man's land of dogma, he let them blow off
their dogmatic steam against Evolution and whatnot. I suspect
he made some very serious headway into changing "hearts and minds" in
that little Missouri town, simply by showing them how interesting
Science could be but not needing to confront their dogma directly. I
can just see him listening to them spout dogma back at him with a
twinkle in his eye and then go back to whatever clever science
experiment he was into, knowing they had to hear the inanity of their
own line, without him saying a word against it.

Los Alamos is a different story. My daughters both went through the
LA school systems and I found the DARE (Drugs Are Really Expensive)
program started when my oldest was in 6th grade every bit as offensive
as banning Evolution from Science. My very strong-willed daughter
came home one day chanting "I will think for myself, I WILL think for
myself, I will THINK for myself... " and told me all about the DARE
program that one of LA's finest had come to tell them about. She was
really excited. They were all being offered a chance to "think for
themselves!" with a vengeance, what could be better? They were going
to have a club whose motto was "I think for myself!". There was even
a subtext that part of thinking for themselves was reporting to the
club-meister ( a police officer ) anyone they knew of using illegal
drugs. 

I have my own reasons (beyond security clearances, etc) for rejecting
the pop-drug-culture, but this was patently offensive and wrong. The
schools (and police) were one step away from creating something like
the "Brown Shirts" of Nazi Germany. Fortunately, I was able to laugh
it off and steer my 12 year old back onto her old track of *thinking
for herself* and once she realized they were pandering to that part of
her ego and in fact were asking her to do anything but *think for
herself*, she was free of their mesmerization. Unfortunately at least
half of her peer group ate it up like Doug's proverbial dog-vomit and
proudly. I don't know what their parents told them... but I suspect
they either didn't want to "rock the boat" or they actually thought
teaching children to "think for themselves" amounted to teaching them
how to recite that line while goose-stepping through the halls in
cadence. Sad for such an educated and presumably enlightened
community. With that backdrop, it is only a small step (in my mind) to
the same administration and teachers going along with "no Evolution
teaching".

I am as surprised as most of you that there was not an uprising over
the "banning of Evolution" (even) at LAHS. I can see why Doug might
have developed an acute sense of (what do we call paranoia when it is
well founded?). Do we have others with children or teachers in the LAHS
system here to report? I would expect at the very least, for the
thespians to write a scathing satire about this and perform it every
semester. Doug? Maybe you can get this started?

I am not a big fan of public school systems in general, but like
Democracy, find them a lesser of evils, and the LA schools systems
having the blessing of a good budget and some very motivated and
capable teachers. I'm even a lesser fan of elite (often religious)
private schools either BTW, and home-schooling as it is often done
today (usually for elitist and/or religious reasons) sucks even more!
I just can't be pleased, can I? There is very little that my daughters
learned in school that I didn't have the opportunity (as with 

[FRIAM] In Praise of Doubt, and ...

2008-11-03 Thread Steve Smith




Good find Russ...

Freeman Dyson is quoted as saying 
    It is better to be wrong than vague

When Juxtaposed with Feynman's
    It is perfectly consistent to be unsure

I think we are reaching the heart of the problem with human
nature.  We want to be correct and we want to be precise
and we want to be sure.  

Human nature, on the other hand, doesn't care and would generally
rather have simple, easy, clear answers, even if they are dead wrong. 

On Modeling and Human Nature:

In my own work with scientists and engineers and decision makers I
constantly find them wanting me to help them find simple, clear,
absolute answers and only the best of them are delighted when the find
I can only help them with the simplest answer of all - "it depends" and
then clarify (somewhat) with "and this is what it depends on and how".

I too feel Doug's pain (or chronic irritation) but mine extends beyond
the bounds of fundamentalist religion to wide swaths of our population
who are not religious and if they are to be called fundamentalist,
their fundamentalism is in their unerring belief in things like their
own privelige, their own entitlement, the rightness of the systems they
participate in or perhaps the rightness in the ones they would replace
the ones they are trying to tear down.  It is easy to be a critic, an
armchair quarterback.

As a youth, I was attracted to Science for the open-minded inquiry it
represented.  I was attracted to technology for the miracles it could
wring out of Science.  I was attracted to Democracy for the implied
social fairness and egalitarianism.  I was attracted to free-markets
for the opportunity afforded hard, smart work.  I was attracted to
capitalism for the seeming rightness (in an industrial economy at
least) that  capital resources facilitate productivity and those who
create and maintain such resources should also be rewarded along with
those  who provide labor/talent/etc.

On Liberal vs Conservative:

There is an old saying which I cannot attribute:
    If you are not liberal when you are young, there is something
wrong with you.
    If you are not conservative when you are old, there is something
wrong with you.

I think this is well motivated and intended but I find otherwise. 
At 51 many of you will find me still "young" but I only remember being
"younger" and now feel quite "old", and at least by today's
terminology, find I am going the "other way" toward a more "Liberal"
viewpoint.

The point, however, is that in you youth I was quick to adopt idealisms
which were happy and bright and promising which is where the
Democrats/Liberals might tend to err, while over time and the enduring
of hard-knocks, I have learned that the world is often somewhat less
than cooperative with such idealism and pragmatism calls for a certain
kind of pessimism or at least very careful optimism.   This might in
fact, be the basis of the prescribed swing from liberal to conservative
with age, but in our current mapping of liberal (to Dems) and
conservative (to Repubs), I have not been able to maintain this track
so well.   There is something amiss (or aright) here.

I find myself more aligned *against* the Republicans than ever and more
aligned *with* the Democrats than ever.  On introspection, I think that
education through experience helped me a lot.   I think that I learned
a lot about what *really* happens when you apply the ideals of either
side to the real world.   I still find all (most) politicians suspect
of hypocrisy and Dems erring on the Pollyanna side but the neoCons at
least seem to be nothing but a big ugly wad of hypocrisy and
short-sighted selfish stupidity.   

I don't like the implied axis of Left/Right or Liberal/Conservative.  
I think that these can be applied roughly to social and economic issues
( I'm liberal socially, but conservative economically is a
common statement in my circles ).   The term "Progressive" has been
used often in place of "Liberal" and in many ways it fits better. 
Progressives seem to be interested in looking for ways to change our
society to improve the human condition while non-Progressives
(Conservatives) can be seen to be trying to preserve the aspects of
society which maintain the current better qualities of the human
condition while trying to avoid the (un)intended consequences of
progress.  

I am very sympathetic with both points of view however, I find a good
deal of what we call "progress" blind faith that "change is good" with
opportunists stirring change for changes' sake so they can "take
advantage".   Similarly I find that resistance to change is often
motivated by those holding power not wanting to risk trying to keep it
in a shifting landscape.   

On Power:
So the central theme turns out to be "opportunism" or "power".
    Power Corrupts
A friend of mine insists Power is Corruption.  

I tend to agree, recognizing that it is not only a consequence of
having power that one becomes "corrupt", taking advantage (because
advantage is 

Re: [FRIAM] Fundamentalist-based Republicanism

2008-11-03 Thread Marcus G. Daniels

Douglas Roberts wrote:
That, and a hopelessly corrupted US-wide educational system which 
provided an environment that was prone to caving in to the demands of 
the Moral Majority.
Another dimension of the Republican world view is found in trickle-down 
economics.
In this view, there are people that create wealth (business owners) and 
those that depend on that wealth (workers).   Those that create wealth 
are a subset of society, and are identified in the natural process of 
their participation in the economy.   (Presumably they are exceptionally 
hard working and smart.)  Of course, those that create or have wealth do 
also depend on the workers, so it does not seem surprising to me that 
they aren't bothered by the possibility of rigid schooling and 
indoctrination.   After all, they want the workers out in the work force 
as soon as possible and don't want a lot of trouble.


I'm not worried about rigid indoctrination, I'm worried about the 
blurring of education and indoctrination.   In a free society, I think 
rigid indoctrination soon leads to new generation of independent 
thinkers.  Such an educational system will self-correct sooner or 
later.   What will take longer to correct is a situation where education 
further devolves into two different colors of teachers and curriculums, 
each pushing different agendas. 

A deeper problem, it seems to me, is there is little faith in people to 
learn, and little effort made to create the conditions where it can 
occur in an unrestrained way.   In the U.S., most people very strongly 
expect education to be completed in the 20s and for that learning to be 
conducted by an institution ensuring certain specific results (skill 
sets).   It is this set of expectations, and the many institutions that 
are invested in them, as much as religious organizations, that inhibit 
intrinsic motivation and independent thought. 

Happily, in this nation and others, there is so much money in technology 
that competition forces the development of  novel technical skills.  
This even occurs independently from traditional educational 
organizations (e.g. the software industry).


Marcus


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Re: [FRIAM] Fundamentalist-based Republicanism

2008-11-03 Thread Douglas Roberts
Thanks, Steve, but no thanks.  I'm a big believer in Darwinism.

;-}

I firmly subscribe to the belief that people (in the aggregate) largely get
what they deserve.  The lack of public outcry about LAHS's three year old
Religious Right science teaching policy tells me that the current crop of
parents up on The Hill have earned the right of having fostered a new
generation of educationally deprived children.

Extend this philosophy a bit:  The people of the United States have richly
earned the rewards from having voted Bush into office for subsequent terms.

Extend this philosophy a bit more:  The humans of this planet have richly
earned the pleasures that our daily cesspool provides, such as well-attended
Fundamentalist-inspired 13 year old rape victim stonings; Abu Graib;
melamine-laced baby formula; teenagers breaking into a German zoo, attacking
and wounding a 75 year old blind bird;  and billion dollar golden parachutes
as rewards for corrupt banking CEOs.

Let's see a mathematical model that rigorously captures all of these
societal behavior gems, and can replicate the behavior in a simulation.

In other words, true change comes from within, if you have to impose it, it
is not true change.  If the race survives long enough, human society might
eventually evolve into a more civilized form, but I'm not sure I'd bet on
it.

--Doug

On Mon, Nov 3, 2008 at 10:36 AM, Steve Smith [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:


 I am as surprised as most of you that there was not an uprising over the
 banning of Evolution (even) at LAHS.  I can see why Doug might have
 developed an acute sense of (what do we call paranoia when it is well
 founded?). Do we have others with children or teachers in the LAHS system
 here to report?   I would expect at the very least, for the thespians to
 write a scathing satire about this and perform it every semester.  Doug?
 Maybe you can get this started?



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Re: [FRIAM] Why Model? Exactly so and vote for the best model or image of 1 of all time

2008-11-03 Thread peter
I cannot help thinking that there is a huge oxymoron when a defense of 
modeling is made with TEXT


When modeling can demonstrate its causality and need ( TOTALLY explain 
itself ) using its functions ( Right Brain )   Demonstrate your 
technology with your technology   then we are moving along the right 
track until then we are pontificating or a possible delusion.


Still pondering the implications of Marty Golubitsky who quoted Rene 
Thom statement / When you build a model its really just a theory and 
may have nothing whatsoever to do with the real world except in the 
opinion of the modelers /


As for phenomenal models and I will include images of potential models 
that SPEAK for themselves with awesome potential  
http://www.edwardtufte.com/tufte/posters Minards 1812 poster and go to 
Tufte's seminar it will blow your mind ( Figuratively speaking or not 
depending on who you are with )


Next challenge for Steve and Owen  How do we use cloud technology 
illustrate and investigate model technology in its full multi 
dimensional glory


Heck Monty Python did in more ways than wun.

( : ( : pete

Peter Baston

*IDEAS*

/www.ideapete.com/ http://www.ideapete.com/








Robert Holmes wrote:
Hmmm anyone else troubled by the fact that both definitions of 
indoctrination seem to be wholly applicable to the Epstein piece?


Robert

On Sun, Nov 2, 2008 at 10:02 PM, Douglas Roberts [EMAIL PROTECTED] 
mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:


I prefer the dictionary definition:

Dictionary.com Unabridged (v 1.1)
http://dictionary.reference.com/help/luna.html - Cite This
Source
http://dictionary.reference.com/cite.html?qh=indoctrinationia=luna
- Share This
http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/indoctrination#sharethis
in·doc·tri·nate
http://dictionary.reference.com/audio.html/lunaWAV/I01/I0137800
/?n?d?ktr??ne?t/ Pronunciation Key - Show Spelled
Pronunciation[in-*dok*-tr/uh/-neyt] Pronunciation Key - Show IPA
Pronunciation --verb (used with object), -nat·ed, -nat·ing.
1.  to instruct in a doctrine, principle, ideology, etc., esp. to
imbue with a specific partisan or biased belief or point of view.



On Sun, Nov 2, 2008 at 9:55 PM, Marcus G. Daniels
[EMAIL PROTECTED] mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:

Douglas Roberts wrote:

Why think, when there is dogma to save you the bother?

A quick check of Wikipedia might suggest an explanation..

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indoctrination
 Indoctrination is the process of inculcating ideas,
attitudes, cognitive strategies or a professional methodology.





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[FRIAM] EMOTICONS at TED

2008-11-03 Thread peter

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eYyN_6GmzWI

I just had to post this
--

Peter Baston

*IDEAS*

/www.ideapete.com/ http://www.ideapete.com/







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Re: [FRIAM] Fundamentalist-based Republicanism

2008-11-03 Thread Steve Smith

Marcus G. Daniels wrote:

Douglas Roberts wrote:
That, and a hopelessly corrupted US-wide educational system which 
provided an environment that was prone to caving in to the demands of 
the Moral Majority.
Another dimension of the Republican world view is found in 
trickle-down economics.
In this view, there are people that create wealth (business owners) 
and those that depend on that wealth (workers).
And a slightly inverted view is that business owners (Capitalists) do 
not create wealth, but rather aggregate it (Capital) and that the actual 
creation of wealth (Productivity) is done by the workers (Labor).   The 
two can operate in synergy or in opposition, depending on the level of 
enlightenment on both sides.


The belief that workers are lazy and undisciplined leads to institutions 
(workplaces, governments, education) that actually reinforces that. 
I'm not worried about rigid indoctrination, I'm worried about the 
blurring of education and indoctrination.   In a free society, I think 
rigid indoctrination soon leads to new generation of independent 
thinkers.  Such an educational system will self-correct sooner or 
later.   What will take longer to correct is a situation where 
education further devolves into two different colors of teachers and 
curriculums, each pushing different agendas.
I do think there are natural oscillations, a dynamic balance more robust 
than any utopian static-balance we can make up.
A deeper problem, it seems to me, is there is little faith in people 
to learn, and little effort made to create the conditions where it can 
occur in an unrestrained way.   In the U.S., most people very strongly 
expect education to be completed in the 20s and for that learning to 
be conducted by an institution ensuring certain specific results 
(skill sets). 
I think our education system conspires against us in several ways.  
First, it is mostly about indoctrinating us in a factory model.  
Learning to sit a desk, follow assembly-line-like learning plans, etc.  
Second, it believes in *teaching* and *performing* more than *learning* 
as evidenced by *standardized testing* and exacerbated by No Child Left 
Behind doctrines.  We never give our children a chance to learn, we are 
too busy teaching them.  Thirdly, it delays our maturity.   An 18 year 
old in our society is still a child.  We often do not allow our young 
adults to be adults until they have endured several rounds of hazing... 
from Middle-School to High School to University to Graduate Program to 
PostDoc.   We come into our adult bodies and hormones in our mid-teens, 
but are not allowed (or expected) to act on the emotions and experiences 
that yields in any responsible way for nearly as many more years.
It is this set of expectations, and the many institutions that are 
invested in them, as much as religious organizations, that inhibit 
intrinsic motivation and independent thought.
Even our PhDs are blue-collar in many cases.  
Happily, in this nation and others, there is so much money in 
technology that competition forces the development of  novel technical 
skills.  This even occurs independently from traditional educational 
organizations (e.g. the software industry).
But as this becomes a commodity this force is undermined.   While it 
has not fully taken effect, it does not surprise me that much of our 
software today is being created in sweat shops in India or (more 
recently) eastern Europe.   We may be able to continue to surf this 
wave of innovation, but just as the skilled craftsman got run over 
(eventually) by the industrial age and the factory worker eventually got 
run over by the information age, the knowledge worker will be run over 
by whatever is emerging now.


I don't mean this as doom and gloom, just as an awareness that we are 
all responsible for our own future and that even when the tide seems to 
be on our side, it can reverse in a moment.


- Steve


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Re: [FRIAM] Fundamentalist-based Republicanism

2008-11-03 Thread Steve Smith

Doug -


I firmly subscribe to the belief that people (in the aggregate) 
largely get what they deserve.  The lack of public outcry about LAHS's 
three year old Religious Right science teaching policy tells me that 
the current crop of parents up on The Hill have earned the right of 
having fostered a new generation of educationally deprived children.


Extend this philosophy a bit:  The people of the United States have 
richly earned the rewards from having voted Bush into office for 
subsequent terms.


Extend this philosophy a bit more:  The humans of this planet have 
richly earned the pleasures that our daily cesspool provides, such as 
well-attended Fundamentalist-inspired 13 year old rape victim 
stonings; Abu Graib; melamine-laced baby formula; teenagers breaking 
into a German zoo, attacking and wounding a 75 year old blind bird;  
and billion dollar golden parachutes as rewards for corrupt banking CEOs.
I agree with all of this in principle.  It feeds my deepest vein of 
Morbid Fascination.  But I also seek (and live by) an opposing 
optimism that despite all the *unenlightened* self-interest in the 
world, we are capable (in the small, if not the large) of enlightened 
self interest, and I encourage and participate in it every opportunity I 
see.  


Let's see a mathematical model that rigorously captures all of these 
societal behavior gems, and can replicate the behavior in a simulation.


In other words, true change comes from within, if you have to impose 
it, it is not true change.  If the race survives long enough, human 
society might eventually evolve into a more civilized form, but I'm 
not sure I'd bet on it.

Agreed.  Let's have a beer!

- Steve


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Re: [FRIAM] Fundamentalist-based Republicanism

2008-11-03 Thread Owen Densmore

On Nov 3, 2008, at 11:30 AM, Steve Smith wrote:

snip

Agreed.  Let's have a beer!

- Steve


Actually, I'd like to get back to that.  We used to have a Friam beer  
now and again, what's a good time for folks?  Cowgirl?  Second Street?


-- Owen





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Re: [FRIAM] In Praise of Doubt, and ...

2008-11-03 Thread Phil Henshaw
Yea, sort of like teaching creationism for science is teaching determinism
for life..

 

Phil Henshaw  

 

From: [EMAIL PROTECTED] [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] On Behalf
Of Steve Smith
Sent: Monday, November 03, 2008 12:37 PM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group
Subject: [FRIAM] In Praise of Doubt, and ...

 

Good find Russ...

Freeman Dyson is quoted as saying 
It is better to be wrong than vague

When Juxtaposed with Feynman's
It is perfectly consistent to be unsure

I think we are reaching the heart of the problem with human nature.  We want
to be correct and we want to be precise and we want to be sure.  

Human nature, on the other hand, doesn't care and would generally rather
have simple, easy, clear answers, even if they are dead wrong. 

On Modeling and Human Nature:

In my own work with scientists and engineers and decision makers I
constantly find them wanting me to help them find simple, clear, absolute
answers and only the best of them are delighted when the find I can only
help them with the simplest answer of all - it depends and then clarify
(somewhat) with and this is what it depends on and how.

I too feel Doug's pain (or chronic irritation) but mine extends beyond the
bounds of fundamentalist religion to wide swaths of our population who are
not religious and if they are to be called fundamentalist, their
fundamentalism is in their unerring belief in things like their own
privelige, their own entitlement, the rightness of the systems they
participate in or perhaps the rightness in the ones they would replace the
ones they are trying to tear down.  It is easy to be a critic, an armchair
quarterback.

As a youth, I was attracted to Science for the open-minded inquiry it
represented.  I was attracted to technology for the miracles it could wring
out of Science.  I was attracted to Democracy for the implied social
fairness and egalitarianism.  I was attracted to free-markets for the
opportunity afforded hard, smart work.  I was attracted to capitalism for
the seeming rightness (in an industrial economy at least) that  capital
resources facilitate productivity and those who create and maintain such
resources should also be rewarded along with those  who provide
labor/talent/etc.

On Liberal vs Conservative:

There is an old saying which I cannot attribute:
If you are not liberal when you are young, there is something wrong with
you.
If you are not conservative when you are old, there is something wrong
with you.

I think this is well motivated and intended but I find otherwise.  At 51
many of you will find me still young but I only remember being younger
and now feel quite old, and at least by today's terminology, find I am
going the other way toward a more Liberal viewpoint.

The point, however, is that in you youth I was quick to adopt idealisms
which were happy and bright and promising which is where the
Democrats/Liberals might tend to err, while over time and the enduring of
hard-knocks, I have learned that the world is often somewhat less than
cooperative with such idealism and pragmatism calls for a certain kind of
pessimism or at least very careful optimism.   This might in fact, be the
basis of the prescribed swing from liberal to conservative with age, but in
our current mapping of liberal (to Dems) and conservative (to Repubs), I
have not been able to maintain this track so well.   There is something
amiss (or aright) here.

I find myself more aligned *against* the Republicans than ever and more
aligned *with* the Democrats than ever.  On introspection, I think that
education through experience helped me a lot.   I think that I learned a lot
about what *really* happens when you apply the ideals of either side to the
real world.   I still find all (most) politicians suspect of hypocrisy and
Dems erring on the Pollyanna side but the neoCons at least seem to be
nothing but a big ugly wad of hypocrisy and short-sighted selfish stupidity.


I don't like the implied axis of Left/Right or Liberal/Conservative.   I
think that these can be applied roughly to social and economic issues ( I'm
liberal socially, but conservative economically is a common statement in my
circles ).   The term Progressive has been used often in place of
Liberal and in many ways it fits better.  Progressives seem to be
interested in looking for ways to change our society to improve the human
condition while non-Progressives (Conservatives) can be seen to be trying to
preserve the aspects of society which maintain the current better qualities
of the human condition while trying to avoid the (un)intended consequences
of progress.  

I am very sympathetic with both points of view however, I find a good deal
of what we call progress blind faith that change is good with
opportunists stirring change for changes' sake so they can take advantage.
Similarly I find that resistance to change is often motivated by those
holding power not wanting to risk trying to keep it in a shifting 

Re: [FRIAM] Fundamentalist-based Republicanism

2008-11-03 Thread Kari Sentz
I have written the principal of LAHS to verify this. She has sent me an
initial response that she was contacting the Department chairs for further
information. (Not to doubt you Doug...I wrote her immediately after our
first exchange.) In addition, I have spoken to a number of LAHS parents
and community members who were appalled at the thought of excluding
evolution in course curriculum.

Evolution plays an important part in the science at LANL...at least in its
computational, biological, and medical research.  This should be reflected
in the education of the community's children. (Not to say one way or the
other that it is.)

The changing demographic in Los Alamos county will hopefully be evidenced
tomorrow.

I'll let you know what I find out.
Kari


 !DOCTYPE html PUBLIC -//W3C//DTD HTML 4.01 Transitional//EN
 html
 head
   meta content=text/html;charset=ISO-8859-1 http-equiv=Content-Type
 /head
 body bgcolor=#ff text=#00
 Douglas Roberts wrote:
 blockquote
  cite=mid:[EMAIL PROTECTED]
  type=citeClarification (I just asked my wife for details):nbsp; the
 (verbal) directive to not teach evolution innbsp; Los Alamos High School
 science classes was issued three years ago.nbsp; Some of the teachers
 chose
 to circumvent this directive by teaching from the historical
 perspective of Darwin's life.br
   br
 /blockquote
 br
 I can report on contrasting (but similar) situation where a friend was
 teaching Laser Science and Holography in a High School in Missouri a
 couple of years ago.nbsp; It might not surprise us that in Missouri, a
 teacher would be told not to teach Evolution.nbsp; This friend was not
 told
 not to teach evolution (it wasn't in his curricula anyway), but after
 many months of intriguing young minds with the wonders of science and
 technology, he managed to make some statement (I can't remember the
 particulars) that tied lots of what he'd said to them to the dirtiest
 of words - iEvolution/i.nbsp;nbsp; After the reactions of most of
 his
 promising young science students made him aware that he'd stepped in
 something messy, he went to the principal to ask what the school policy
 was (assuming the worst).nbsp;nbsp; The principal simply said You are
 on your
 own.nbsp; The implied message was that the school would not interfere if
 he wanted to (needed to) go into such things, but that neither would
 they defend him against irate parents (and students) either.br
 nbsp;br
 Being an easy-going but determined sort, he continued (carefully) with
 his class to engage them in all things scientific that he could and
 when he stumbled into the no-man's land of dogma, he let them blow off
 their dogmatic steam against iEvolution and whatnot/i.nbsp; I suspect
 he made some very serious headway into changing hearts and minds in
 that little Missouri town, simply by showing them how interesting
 Science could be but not needing to confront their dogma directly.nbsp; I
 can just see him listening to them spout dogma back at him with a
 twinkle in his eye and then go back to whatever clever science
 experiment he was into, knowing they had to hear the inanity of their
 own line, without him saying a word against it.br
 br
 Los Alamos is a different story.nbsp;nbsp; My daughters both went
 through the
 LA school systems and I found the DARE (Drugs Are Really Expensive)
 program started when my oldest was in 6th grade every bit as offensive
 as banning Evolution from Science.nbsp;nbsp; My very strong-willed
 daughter
 came home one day chanting I will think for myself, I WILL think for
 myself, I will THINK for myself... nbsp; and told me all about the DARE
 program that one of LA's finest had come to tell them about.nbsp; She was
 really excited.nbsp; They were all being offered a chance to think for
 themselves! with a vengeance, what could be better?nbsp; They were going
 to have a club whose motto was I think for myself!.nbsp;nbsp; There
 was even
 a subtext that part of thinking for themselves was reporting to the
 club-meister ( a police officer ) anyone they knew of using illegal
 drugs.nbsp;nbsp; br
 br
 I have my own reasons (beyond security clearances, etc) for rejecting
 the pop-drug-culture, but this was patently offensive and
 wrong.nbsp;nbsp; The
 schools (and police) were one step away from creating something like
 the Brown Shirts of Nazi Germany.nbsp;nbsp; Fortunately, I was able to
 laugh
 it off and steer my 12 year old back onto her old track of *thinking
 for herself* and once she realized they were pandering to that part of
 her ego and in fact were asking her to do anything but *think for
 herself*, she was free of their mesmerization.nbsp; Unfortunately at
 least
 half of her peer group ate it up like Doug's proverbial dog-vomit and
 proudly.nbsp;nbsp; I don't know what their parents told them... but I
 suspect
 they either didn't want to rock the boat or they actually thought
 teaching children to think for themselves amounted to teaching them
 how to recite that line while 

Re: [FRIAM] Fundamentalist-based Republicanism

2008-11-03 Thread Phil Henshaw
Marcus,
Your example of our weird faith people have in trickle down economics
points to a specific instance of magical thinking, in the usual form, that
we think our stereotypes have causal value in physical systems of the world.
The data reads to me as that globally increasing investment generally had
the claimed effect, prior to 1970, and then largely stopped.  That somewhat
coincides with the rise in fanatical belief in the principle just when it no
longer worked.

The effect of believing your stereotypes means that changing the world is
simply a matter of convincing others to have the other stereotypes...  I
think that's what I observe in most politics and why I'm nearly as
disappointed in the level of insight into our problems by the republicans as
by the democrats.  They ALL have crazy fictions about how to change the
complex systems of our world, that independently develop organization and
behavior of their own almost no one happens to watch.  We just give label
with the latest news story stereotype and that settles it!

I don’t think education seems to fix that disease in the situation where
everyone apparently has it.

Phil Henshaw  




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[FRIAM] Commentary by Paul Krugman

2008-11-03 Thread Douglas Roberts
2008 Nobel prize winner for economics Paul Krugman has a few interesting
things to say about
The Republican Rump
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/11/03/opinion/03krugman.html?_r=1ref=todayspaperoref=slogin

*[...]
Why will the G.O.P. become more, not less, extreme? For one thing,
projections suggest that this election will drive many of the remaining
Republican moderates out of Congress, while leaving the hard right in place.
[...]
But the G.O.P.'s long transformation into the party of the unreasonable
right, a haven for racists and reactionaries, seems likely to accelerate as
a result of the impending defeat.*
*
*

;-}

-- 
Doug Roberts, RTI International
[EMAIL PROTECTED]
[EMAIL PROTECTED]
505-455-7333 - Office
505-670-8195 - Cell

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[FRIAM] Elections illustrate that there is no meta level

2008-11-03 Thread Russ Abbott
The subject pretty much says it.

I have long thought that one of the features of complex systems is that
there is no meta-level. By that I mean that no matter what framework-like
structure the system provides for elements within it, that framework is
itself manipulable from within the system.

Elections are supposed to be a mechanism that collects votes. It is supposed
to operate on a meta-level, independent of the actual vote preferences. It
is not supposed to be part of the electioneering process. But as we all
know, the election process itself is subject to manipulation by parties to
the election. A common example is that polling places aren't staffed
sufficiently, leading to long lines and discouraged voters. Of course that
happens in districts that are not favorable to the party in control of the
election mechanism. That sort of thing is not supposed to happen. But
obviously it does.

This also illustrates one of the weaknesses of modeling--to return to
yesterday's thread. Models are always meta-level frameworks. No model that I
know of is flexible enough that the elements within the model can change the
underlying model assumptions.

-- Russ

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[FRIAM] The Redskins Rule: Obama wins!

2008-11-03 Thread Owen Densmore
OK, its over.  Obama won.  Why?  There is a weird statistic that goes  
like this:


If you can not wait to see who will win the United States election  
on Tuesday night, there may be a way to find out 24 hours beforehand  
— thanks to the Washington Redskins.


The outcome of the Redskins’ last home game before a presidential  
election has been an accurate barometer for which party gets in the  
White House 17 of the last 18 times.


If the Redskins win, the incumbent party stays in power. If the  
Redskins lose, the opposing party wins.


Well, the game was tight, fast and dramatic! .. and the Redskins  
LOST!  Thus tomorrow, according to the Redskin Rule, Obama will WIN!   
Whoot!
The first time the Redskins Rule failed was in 2004, when Washington  
lost its last home game before Election Day, and George W. Bush  
still returned to power.


Then again, that could have been because of another election  
superstition related to sports. If a team named after an animal wins  
the Rose Bowl in election year, then the Democrats go to the White  
House. In 2004 the University of Southern Calilfornia Trojans beat  
the Michigan Wolverines in the Rose Bowl.


This year, the Redskins (6-2) will host the Pittsburgh Steelers  
(5-2) on Monday Night Football — Washington’s first pre-election  
Monday night home game since 1984, when Washington won and Ronald  
Reagan was re-elected.


ESPN will air interviews with both Barack Obama and John McCain  
during the Monday night game.


Yup, believe it or not, Monday Night Football copped an interview with  
both candidates.  Obama won that too.

The Redskins, McCain will be happy to know, are two-point favourites.

The Redskins did not score even one touchdown, their quarterback was  
sacked for the first time this year, not only once, but twice.  It was  
an overwhelming win by Pittsburgh.  McCain is out.


-- Owen




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