Re: [FRIAM] numbers

[Carl Tollander]

I invite those who think 87507 to be "poor" to take a Sunday drive through
Tierra Contenta or south of the airport/west of 599.   Say, out by the polo
field.



On Mon, Nov 2, 2020 at 12:27 PM  wrote:

> Thanks, Glen, I think the relevant data line was POP100, although I don't
> know why "100".  In a  sane world, that would be the population in
> hundreds, but that would give our zip code a population of 4.5 million,
> which seems a bit  heavy.  In any case, for those of  you following case
> increments by zip code, here are some denominators as of 2010, as well as
> the most recent per day 7 day increments. .  The second two columns are
> deviation are expectation and deviation.  No surprises there, except that
> there seems to be a bit of a run of cases out by the golf course.  507 has
> a third more cases than it should have, which demonstrates once again that
> it's better for your health to be rich than poor.  *Caveat emptor:* these
> calculations were done literally on the back of an envelope by an 82 year
> old guy with poor eyesight and C's in math.
>
>
>
> 501 - 15,147  - 13% - 02.3c - 4  -
>
> 505 - 31,013  - 25% - 06.0   - 8  -
>
> 506 - 12, 580 - 09% - 05.5   - 3 +
>
> 507 - 45, 890 - 38% - 18.0   - 12 ++
>
> 508 - 18, 183 - 15% - 01.5  -  5 -
>
>
>
> Nick
>
>
>
> Nicholas Thompson
>
> Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology
>
> Clark University
>
> thompnicks...@gmail.com
>
> https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/
>
>
>
>
>
> -Original Message-
> From: Friam  On Behalf Of u?l? ???
> Sent: Monday, November 2, 2020 12:08 PM
> To: FriAM 
> Subject: Re: [FRIAM] numbers
>
>
>
> And if you don't want to download a huge file, you can use the census web
> app:
>
>
>
> E.g. for my zip code (98502):
>
>
>
>
> https://tigerweb.geo.census.gov/arcgis/rest/services/TIGERweb/PUMA_TAD_TAZ_UGA_ZCTA/MapServer/7/query?where=ZCTA5%3D%2798502%27=esriGeometryEnvelope==esriSpatialRelIntersects==*=false=falsefalse=falsefalse=false==falsefalsehtml
>
>
>
> I'd say this is an excellent example of government transparency.
>
>
>
> On 11/2/20 9:08 AM, Barry MacKichan wrote:
>
> > One of the first search hits is
>
> > https://www.kaggle.com/census/us-population-by-zip-code
>
> > 
>
> > —Barry
>
> >
>
> > On 2 Nov 2020, at 11:59, thompnicks...@gmail.com wrote:
>
> >
>
> > Is it possible to get population by zipcode?  It seems like it’s
>
> > proprietary info.
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> > How’s that for government transparency!
>
>
>
> --
>
> ↙↙↙ uǝlƃ
>
>
>
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Re: [FRIAM] Public Health Gating Criteria for Reopening New Mexico | NMDOH - CV Modeling

[Steve Smith]

Doh!

https://rt.live/us/NM

> I don't know the answer to your question, but here is some time-series
> estimates for Ro in NM.    We have been above 1.0 for over 2 months.
>
>> https://cvmodeling.nmhealth.org/public-health-gating-criteria-for-reopening-nm/
>> 
>>
>>
>> Can anybody explain how it could be that the reproductive rate of the
>> virus in NM has fallen to 1.07 from 1.29 in the last two weeks, as
>> the daily case rate has almost doubled and the positive test rate is
>> just below it’s highest level (10.0%) at 9.1%. 
>>
>> Inquiring readers want to know.
>>
>> Nick
>>
>>
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Re: [FRIAM] Public Health Gating Criteria for Reopening New Mexico | NMDOH - CV Modeling

[Steve Smith]

I don't know the answer to your question, but here is some time-series
estimates for Ro in NM.    We have been above 1.0 for over 2 months.

> https://cvmodeling.nmhealth.org/public-health-gating-criteria-for-reopening-nm/
> 
>
>
> Can anybody explain how it could be that the reproductive rate of the
> virus in NM has fallen to 1.07 from 1.29 in the last two weeks, as the
> daily case rate has almost doubled and the positive test rate is just
> below it’s highest level (10.0%) at 9.1%. 
>
> Inquiring readers want to know.
>
> Nick
>
>
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[FRIAM] Public Health Gating Criteria for Reopening New Mexico | NMDOH - CV Modeling

[thompnickson2]

https://cvmodeling.nmhealth.org/public-health-gating-criteria-for-reopening-
nm/ 

Can anybody explain how it could be that the reproductive rate of the virus
in NM has fallen to 1.07 from 1.29 in the last two weeks, as the daily case
rate has almost doubled and the positive test rate is just below it's
highest level (10.0%) at 9.1%.  

Inquiring readers want to know. 

Nick 

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Re: [FRIAM] Emergence and Downward Causation

[thompnickson2]

Eric has this weird faith that we can separate words from ideas.  I hope he 
right, but I am not so sure.  

 

Nicholas Thompson

Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology

Clark University

  thompnicks...@gmail.com

  
https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

 

 

From: Friam  On Behalf Of Eric Charles
Sent: Monday, November 2, 2020 4:35 PM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group 
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Emergence and Downward Causation

 

Jochen, At a first pass I don't think I disagree with any of that. But I also 
don't think it would count as 'downward causation'. I write a note on a board. 
The next day, seeing the note on the board causes me to take a pill (is part of 
a causal chain leading to the pill taking). That's just normal causation. 

 

I think the question is whether your "intention to take the pill" can cause the 
behavior of writing-the-note-on-the-board and the behavior of 
taking-the-pill-in-response-to-seeing-the-note. At that point Nick objects that 
there is some odd category error there, because both behaviors in question are 
constituent parts of the intention... because we aren't dualists who believe in 
disembodied intentions floating around in psychophysical parallelism with some 
mysterious causal mechanisms... we are some brand of behaviorist/materialist 
who understands intentions to be higher-order patterns of behavior in 
circumstances. 

 

And that's all fine and good... EXCEPT... that there are several past 
breakdowns of "types of causes" in which the constituent parts of something are 
recognized as some particular sub-category of causation. And at that point, we 
either agree to be clearer about our terminology, or we are just in some weird 
argument over words, not ideas. 


 

 

 

On Fri, Oct 30, 2020 at 1:36 PM Jochen Fromm mailto:j...@cas-group.net> > wrote:

It is hard and at the same time it is not. This is what makes it interesting. 
From a psychological perspective the question is: do the words I think and 
ideas I have influence my own behavior directly, and if they do, how?

 

In my opinion it is not possible to control oneself by ideas or words 
*directly*. At best they are confusing and prevent actions, like Hamlet's "to 
be or not to be" monologue. We react to events. We are driven by intentions, 
but also by emotions and instincts.

 

If we do something we must have the desire to do it. Since we are biological 
animals we primarily follow the biological directive (eat! mate! replicate!). 
In addition to this rules we follow the laws society imposes on us.

 

But a person can decide to do something, for example to learn more about 
mathematics. So he might enroll at some kind of college. Except the one moment 
where he decided to start studying others will tell him what to do and what to 
learn.

 

He also can write down a note in his calendar which reminds him the next day to 
do something. Or he can speak to himself loudly so that he remembers it the 
next day. In both cases language allows us to interact with our future self. 
IMHO language in written or spoken form is the key to causation.

 

Or would you disagree? As a psychologist you know better than me how the mind 
works. 

 

-J.

 

 

 Original message 

From: Eric Charles mailto:eric.phillip.char...@gmail.com> > 

Date: 10/30/20 13:50 (GMT+01:00) 

To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group mailto:friam@redfish.com> > 

Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Emergence and Downward Causation 

 

Come on man this shit isn't that hard

 

First, you buy into a system of levels. Then something at a higher level causes 
something at a lower level. IF you really have a problem with it, it's because 
you think the "levels" and bullshit. That's a different issue. "Levels" are 
always at least somewhat arbitrary, and we should all just admit that from the 
start. 

 

Second, you have to buy into the many and various well-established meanings of 
"causation".

 

Let's say I go to the store and have a stroke. Let's say someone demanded that 
you explain what caused me to have a stroke in the store, rather than at home. 
Obviously you could answer that lots of different ways. One "cause" (part of 
the efficient cause, if we are using Aristotle's categories) is that I was in 
the store. Because I was in the store, all the parts of me were in the store. 
Because all the parts of me were in the store, when something happened to one 
of those parts, it happened in the store. Is "All of me" a higher level of 
organization than "part of me"? If we buy that, then 
the-stroke-being-in-the-store was downward caused by I-was-in-the-store. 

 

Why does New Mexico have Trump as president? Because the entire U.S. has Trump 
as president, and Trump-is-President becoming true in the-entire-U.S. downward 
causes that to be the case in New Mexico.

 




 

 

 

On Thu, Oct 29, 2020 at 6:11 PM 

Re: [FRIAM] Emergence and Downward Causation

[Eric Charles]

Jochen, At a first pass I don't think I disagree with any of that. But I
also don't think it would count as 'downward causation'. I write a note on
a board. The next day, seeing the note on the board causes me to take a
pill (is part of a causal chain leading to the pill taking). That's just
normal causation.

I think the question is whether your "intention to take the pill" can cause
the behavior of writing-the-note-on-the-board and the behavior of
taking-the-pill-in-response-to-seeing-the-note. At that point Nick objects
that there is some odd category error there, because both behaviors in
question are constituent parts of the intention... because we aren't
dualists who believe in disembodied intentions floating around in
psychophysical parallelism with some mysterious causal mechanisms... we are
some brand of behaviorist/materialist who understands intentions to be
higher-order patterns of behavior in circumstances.

And that's all fine and good... EXCEPT... that there are several past
breakdowns of "types of causes" in which the constituent parts of something
are recognized as some particular sub-category of causation. And at
*that *point,
we either agree to be clearer about our terminology, or we are just in some
weird argument over words, not ideas.




On Fri, Oct 30, 2020 at 1:36 PM Jochen Fromm  wrote:

> It is hard and at the same time it is not. This is what makes it
> interesting. From a psychological perspective the question is: do the words
> I think and ideas I have influence my own behavior directly, and if they
> do, how?
>
> In my opinion it is not possible to control oneself by ideas or words
> *directly*. At best they are confusing and prevent actions, like Hamlet's
> "to be or not to be" monologue. We react to events. We are driven by
> intentions, but also by emotions and instincts.
>
> If we do something we must have the desire to do it. Since we are
> biological animals we primarily follow the biological directive (eat! mate!
> replicate!). In addition to this rules we follow the laws society imposes
> on us.
>
> But a person can decide to do something, for example to learn more about
> mathematics. So he might enroll at some kind of college. Except the one
> moment where he decided to start studying others will tell him what to do
> and what to learn.
>
> He also can write down a note in his calendar which reminds him the next
> day to do something. Or he can speak to himself loudly so that he remembers
> it the next day. In both cases language allows us to interact with our
> future self. IMHO language in written or spoken form is the key to
> causation.
>
> Or would you disagree? As a psychologist you know better than me how the
> mind works.
>
> -J.
>
>
>  Original message 
> From: Eric Charles 
> Date: 10/30/20 13:50 (GMT+01:00)
> To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group 
>
> Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Emergence and Downward Causation
>
> Come on man this shit isn't that hard
>
> First, you buy into a system of levels. Then something at a higher level
> causes something at a lower level. IF you really have a problem with it,
> it's because you think the "levels" and bullshit. That's a different issue.
> "Levels" are always at least somewhat arbitrary, and we should all just
> admit that from the start.
>
> Second, you have to buy into the many and various well-established
> meanings of "causation".
>
> Let's say I go to the store and have a stroke. Let's say someone demanded
> that you explain what caused me to have a stroke in the store, rather than
> at home. Obviously you could answer that lots of different ways. One
> "cause" (part of the efficient cause, if we are using Aristotle's
> categories) is that I was in the store. Because I was in the store, all the
> parts of me were in the store. Because all the parts of me were in the
> store, when something happened to one of those parts, it happened in the
> store. Is "All of me" a higher level of organization than "part of me"? If
> we buy that, then the-stroke-being-in-the-store was downward caused by
> I-was-in-the-store.
>
> Why does New Mexico have Trump as president? Because the entire U.S. has
> Trump as president, and Trump-is-President becoming true in the-entire-U.S.
> downward causes that to be the case in New Mexico.
>
>
>
> 
>
>
> On Thu, Oct 29, 2020 at 6:11 PM Jochen Fromm  wrote:
>
>> My two cents: I would say the secret to exotic phenomena like downward
>> causation hides behind boring stuff we all know: behind laws and language,
>> however boring that may sound.
>>
>> Aristotle said the whole is greater than the sum of its parts. The
>> difference between the whole and the sum of its parts is the interaction
>> between the parts, their interplay and their organisation.
>>
>> These interactions are determined by laws - the laws of nature, the rules
>> of swarm intelligence or the laws which are engraved on stone tablets. The
>> laws lead to the emergence of high level 

Re: [FRIAM] numbers

[David Eric Smith]

It’s an interesting question what summary statistic would be informative across 
the several dimensions of context in demography.  Total numbers are not by 
themselves, but neither are fractions.

Here’s my candidate, though it would require a parametric model of some sort:

Complementary cumulative probability: what is the probability a typical person 
in a given locale can get through a day and _not_ spend 15 minutes inhaling 
SARS-COV2 (at or above some threshold density)?

If crowd density is higher for a typical person (people in high-rises), the 
probability rapidly goes down with increasing average infection rate, while at 
low density (people in spread-out single-family dwellings) it goes down as a 
smaller power.  The probability you can avoid the hazards also depends on 
connectivity and the likelihood that any given person can impact several 
environments.

Not easy to estimate, but not wildly harder at zeroth order than the kinds of 
models epidemiologists already make.  It takes advantage of the invariants of 
the problem: every person lives 24 hours per day, and typically takes some part 
of a week to get sick and a couple of weeks to recover (with a distribution one 
could include if desired).  So the bottom line for an individual anywhere is: 
what chance do I have of not being part of some chain of transmission.

Eric



> On Nov 2, 2020, at 11:31 AM, Barry MacKichan  
> wrote:
> 
> The other thing that has me tearing out my hair (really a serious problem at 
> this point) is the maps where they shade the state or county by the cases or 
> deaths relative to the population. The rates are correct, but a high rate in 
> Elko County, Nevada hits you eye but the same rate in King County, New York 
> (aka Manhattan) is almost invisible.
> —Barry
> 
> On 2 Nov 2020, at 11:09, Tom Johnson wrote:
> 
> Both numbers may be accurate but not particularly helpful bcs they lack 
> context. One would have to start with, at least, a ratio of cases to some 
> level of population, per 10,000 or 100,000,etc. 
> 
> It drives me nuts that the state's health department or somebody publishes 
> daily cases by ZIP without showing the population of those ZIPs. And then 
> newspapers like the New Mexican publish the case numbers without context. 
> T. 
> 
> On Mon, Nov 2, 2020, 9:01 AM Prof David West  > wrote:
> Which is scarier?
> 
>   -- 41 out of 50 states show an increase in COVID cases.
>   -- 105 out of 3,141 counties show an increase in COVID cases.
> 
> Which is more accurate?
> 
> Which number should guide policy?
> 
> davew
> 
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Re: [FRIAM] election eve

[Frank Wimberly]

Any party that participates in efforts to invalidate ligitimate voters or
ballots does not deserve to have candidates in office.  In every case that
I am aware of in this election courts have decided in favor of the voters
or ballots that are the subjects of these kinds of efforts.  Trump et al
seem desperate.

---
Frank C. Wimberly
140 Calle Ojo Feliz,
Santa Fe, NM 87505

505 670-9918
Santa Fe, NM

On Mon, Nov 2, 2020, 2:24 PM Roger Critchlow  wrote:

>
> https://www.startribune.com/more-than-1-7m-absentee-ballots-returned-in-minnesota-as-feds-announce-election-monitors/572949792/
>
> Barr is sending the DOJ to help with the election.
>
> -- rec --
>
>
> On Mon, Nov 2, 2020 at 3:33 PM  wrote:
>
>> I dunno.  What Is happening in MN.
>>
>> https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/minnesota/
>>
>> Nicholas Thompson
>> Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology
>> Clark University
>> thompnicks...@gmail.com
>> https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/
>>
>>
>>
>> -Original Message-
>> From: Friam  On Behalf Of u?l? ???
>> Sent: Monday, November 2, 2020 1:03 PM
>> To: FriAM 
>> Subject: Re: [FRIAM] election eve
>>
>> What's happening in Minnesota?
>>
>> https://electoral-vote.com/evp2020/Pres/Graphs/minnesota.html
>> https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/minnesota/
>> https://electionprojection.com/minnesota-presidential-election.php
>>
>> https://www.politico.com/2020-election/race-forecasts-and-predictions/minnesota/
>>
>>
>> On 11/2/20 8:42 AM, Marcus Daniels wrote:
>> >
>> > -Original Message-
>> > From: Friam  On Behalf Of Prof David West
>> > Sent: Monday, November 2, 2020 8:26 AM
>> > To: friam@redfish.com
>> > Subject: [FRIAM] election eve
>> >
>> > (Everyone is seeing Wisconsin as must win and ignoring what is
>> > happening in Minnesota, a state with the same 10 votes as Wisconsin.)
>>
>>
>> --
>> ↙↙↙ uǝlƃ
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Re: [FRIAM] election eve

[Roger Critchlow]

https://www.startribune.com/more-than-1-7m-absentee-ballots-returned-in-minnesota-as-feds-announce-election-monitors/572949792/

Barr is sending the DOJ to help with the election.

-- rec --


On Mon, Nov 2, 2020 at 3:33 PM  wrote:

> I dunno.  What Is happening in MN.
>
> https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/minnesota/
>
> Nicholas Thompson
> Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology
> Clark University
> thompnicks...@gmail.com
> https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/
>
>
>
> -Original Message-
> From: Friam  On Behalf Of u?l? ???
> Sent: Monday, November 2, 2020 1:03 PM
> To: FriAM 
> Subject: Re: [FRIAM] election eve
>
> What's happening in Minnesota?
>
> https://electoral-vote.com/evp2020/Pres/Graphs/minnesota.html
> https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/minnesota/
> https://electionprojection.com/minnesota-presidential-election.php
>
> https://www.politico.com/2020-election/race-forecasts-and-predictions/minnesota/
>
>
> On 11/2/20 8:42 AM, Marcus Daniels wrote:
> >
> > -Original Message-
> > From: Friam  On Behalf Of Prof David West
> > Sent: Monday, November 2, 2020 8:26 AM
> > To: friam@redfish.com
> > Subject: [FRIAM] election eve
> >
> > (Everyone is seeing Wisconsin as must win and ignoring what is
> > happening in Minnesota, a state with the same 10 votes as Wisconsin.)
>
>
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[FRIAM] ad hominem as critical thinking

[uǝlƃ ↙↙↙]

I'd like to draw attention to these two posts:

  When Critical Evaluation Goes Too Far
  https://www.downes.ca/post/71554

  Herd Immunity -- Facts and Numbers
  https://youtu.be/NENhBmN_tps?t=763

The first (implicitly) makes the point that there are degrees and layers of 
critical thinking. And Hossenfelder preemptively registers an examination of 
the source of some bit of info as "ad hominem", which I think exhibits a lack 
of critical thinking on her part. While it's true that the Great Barrington 
Declaration (https://gbdeclaration.org/) can and should be criticized for its 
content ignoring its sources, to do so debilitates the critical thinker in an 
important way. I think the important distinction lies not in whether one's 
"attacking" the source, but in the *type* of "attack." Having had my own 
criticisms be labeled as "attacks", I'm obviously sensitive to that difference. 
Questioning assumptions, incentives, motive, and track record is a perfectly 
legitimate way to criticize an argument. How one gets to some conclusion is as 
important as the soundness of the conclusion itself. I.e. even in *reasoning*, 
a mechanism is necessary.

Re: Dunning-Kruger and this post:

  Why Abstaining Helps
  https://www.overcomingbias.com/2020/11/why-abstaining-helps.html

wherein Hanson makes the argument that we (all) should abstain from voting if 
we judge ourselves too ignorant to do so. I like the argument that 
Dunning-Kruger, where competent people over-estimate the competence of their 
colleagues and incompetent people over-estimate their own competence. That's a 
very layered criticism of Hanson's free-market-like fluid probabilities 
conception. But the following criticism of that post takes it a step further 
... and kindasorta in the right direction, I think:

  https://mobile.twitter.com/ExiledDalioLama/status/1322744855689383937
  "to me the flaw of this model is that it misunderstands the purpose of voting
   it's not simply about choosing policies to maximize some objective function, 
voting is the way we specify the objective function"

A vote isn't really a statement of one's competence in determining which 
candidate will produce the most utility for the world, nation, whatever ... a 
typical "rationalist" arrogance. It's a *marketing* reaction. We're the focus 
group and we've just been presented with the Trump and Biden pitches. Our vote 
is more of a "liked it" or "hated it" response, our constant reminder that the 
world is impredicative, defined in terms of universal quantifiers.

I used to scoff at those who thought of political campaigns as being about the 
"character" of the politician. But I now (think I) understand it. Assessing 
someone's character and credibility is as much about their assumptions, 
motivations, incentives, and track record as it is about particular artifacts 
they extrude and leave laying on the floor [⛧]. Predicting what a Biden or 
Trump admin will do over the next 4 years is irrelevant. What we're voting on 
is our *assessment* of their character. If you're ignoring their character in 
your assessment at this point, you are not a very competent critical thinker.






[⛧] Yes, that's a euphemism for "sh¡t".

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Re: [FRIAM] election eve

[thompnickson2]

I dunno.  What Is happening in MN. 

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/minnesota/

Nicholas Thompson
Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology
Clark University
thompnicks...@gmail.com
https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/
 


-Original Message-
From: Friam  On Behalf Of u?l? ???
Sent: Monday, November 2, 2020 1:03 PM
To: FriAM 
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] election eve

What's happening in Minnesota?

https://electoral-vote.com/evp2020/Pres/Graphs/minnesota.html
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/minnesota/
https://electionprojection.com/minnesota-presidential-election.php
https://www.politico.com/2020-election/race-forecasts-and-predictions/minnesota/


On 11/2/20 8:42 AM, Marcus Daniels wrote:
> 
> -Original Message-
> From: Friam  On Behalf Of Prof David West
> Sent: Monday, November 2, 2020 8:26 AM
> To: friam@redfish.com
> Subject: [FRIAM] election eve
> 
> (Everyone is seeing Wisconsin as must win and ignoring what is 
> happening in Minnesota, a state with the same 10 votes as Wisconsin.)


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Re: [FRIAM] numbers

[thompnickson2]

Oh, Gawd.  I better put my proton shields up.  Glen is grumpy.  

n

Nicholas Thompson
Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology
Clark University
thompnicks...@gmail.com
https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/
 


-Original Message-
From: Friam  On Behalf Of u?l? ???
Sent: Monday, November 2, 2020 1:57 PM
To: friam@redfish.com
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] numbers

And to make matters worse, we won't be able to trust the Census 2020 data 
*either* because they're cutting it off early:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/13/us/supreme-court-census.html

All models are always wrong. Applying the population divisor, which is a wrong 
model, over the top of your wrong model (cases) produces an even more wrong, 
wrong model. But false models atop false models sure is USEFUL.

Which brings me to a post I thought about making last week: ad hominem *as* 
critical thinking. I may find the time to make that post if I'm lucky.


On 11/2/20 11:46 AM, Tom Johnson wrote:
> Nick:
> I would suggest that the 2010 population data is pretty thin for analysis.  
> Off the top of my head, our 87505 ZIP has about 25k people as of 2019.  ZIP 
> 87507 has about 50k.  Hence the crying need for an appropriate denominator 
> when looking at cases by ZIP.

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Re: [FRIAM] numbers

[uǝlƃ ↙↙↙]

And to make matters worse, we won't be able to trust the Census 2020 data 
*either* because they're cutting it off early:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/13/us/supreme-court-census.html

All models are always wrong. Applying the population divisor, which is a wrong 
model, over the top of your wrong model (cases) produces an even more wrong, 
wrong model. But false models atop false models sure is USEFUL.

Which brings me to a post I thought about making last week: ad hominem *as* 
critical thinking. I may find the time to make that post if I'm lucky.


On 11/2/20 11:46 AM, Tom Johnson wrote:
> Nick:
> I would suggest that the 2010 population data is pretty thin for analysis.  
> Off the top of my head, our 87505 ZIP has about 25k people as of 2019.  ZIP 
> 87507 has about 50k.  Hence the crying need for an appropriate denominator 
> when looking at cases by ZIP.

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Re: [FRIAM] numbers

[Tom Johnson]

Nick, et al. -
Here's what I sent to a friend at the New Mexican in August:

*Henry:*
*I know, I know.  I'm a bit of a crank, but...*

*The online edition of the New Mexican has many data graphics that help
readers put the virus in
context:  https://www.santafenewmexican.com/news/virus/
  *

*Yet what we see in print (p. A-4 today), with one exception,  totally
fails to supply any context for the data.  Yes, the "Daily cases reported
in New Mexico" chart supplies the necessary context of change over time.
But using space and ink to print "Positive Cases By County" or "Virus
Tracker" are, essentially, meaningless numbers without any display of
statistical normalization, i.e. cases per thousand, etc.  And perhaps most
misleading is the ZIP code map of cases by ZIP?  *

*There are ~350 ZIP codes
 in New
Mexico.  They range in population from about 80,000 to fewer than 10.  In
our local case, ZIP 87505 has about 25,000 people while 87505 has twice as
many.  To simply see a "daily" number with an arrow tells us nothing about
the rates per TK residents or the change over time in any of those ZIPs.*

*So, I fully appreciate the shortage of staff and newshole, but (a) isn't
there some way to present the data in a more meaningful way in the print
edition and, (b) why not at least direct readers of the ink-on-paper
edition to the helpful online data at the link above?*

*Adelante,*
*Tom*



Tom Johnson - t...@jtjohnson.com
Institute for Analytic Journalism   -- Santa Fe, NM USA
505.577.6482(c)505.473.9646(h)
*NM Foundation for Open Government* 
*Check out It's The People's Data
*





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<#DAB4FAD8-2DD7-40BB-A1B8-4E2AA1F9FDF2>

On Mon, Nov 2, 2020 at 12:27 PM  wrote:

> Thanks, Glen, I think the relevant data line was POP100, although I don't
> know why "100".  In a  sane world, that would be the population in
> hundreds, but that would give our zip code a population of 4.5 million,
> which seems a bit  heavy.  In any case, for those of  you following case
> increments by zip code, here are some denominators as of 2010, as well as
> the most recent per day 7 day increments. .  The second two columns are
> deviation are expectation and deviation.  No surprises there, except that
> there seems to be a bit of a run of cases out by the golf course.  507 has
> a third more cases than it should have, which demonstrates once again that
> it's better for your health to be rich than poor.  *Caveat emptor:* these
> calculations were done literally on the back of an envelope by an 82 year
> old guy with poor eyesight and C's in math.
>
>
>
> 501 - 15,147  - 13% - 02.3c - 4  -
>
> 505 - 31,013  - 25% - 06.0   - 8  -
>
> 506 - 12, 580 - 09% - 05.5   - 3 +
>
> 507 - 45, 890 - 38% - 18.0   - 12 ++
>
> 508 - 18, 183 - 15% - 01.5  -  5 -
>
>
>
> Nick
>
>
>
> Nicholas Thompson
>
> Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology
>
> Clark University
>
> thompnicks...@gmail.com
>
> https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/
>
>
>
>
>
> -Original Message-
> From: Friam  On Behalf Of u?l? ???
> Sent: Monday, November 2, 2020 12:08 PM
> To: FriAM 
> Subject: Re: [FRIAM] numbers
>
>
>
> And if you don't want to download a huge file, you can use the census web
> app:
>
>
>
> E.g. for my zip code (98502):
>
>
>
>
> https://tigerweb.geo.census.gov/arcgis/rest/services/TIGERweb/PUMA_TAD_TAZ_UGA_ZCTA/MapServer/7/query?where=ZCTA5%3D%2798502%27=esriGeometryEnvelope==esriSpatialRelIntersects==*=false=falsefalse=falsefalse=false==falsefalsehtml
>
>
>
> I'd say this is an excellent example of government transparency.
>
>
>
> On 11/2/20 9:08 AM, Barry MacKichan wrote:
>
> > One of the first search hits is
>
> > https://www.kaggle.com/census/us-population-by-zip-code
>
> > 
>
> > —Barry
>
> >
>
> > On 2 Nov 2020, at 11:59, thompnicks...@gmail.com wrote:
>
> >
>
> > Is it possible to get population by zipcode?  It seems like it’s
>
> > proprietary info.
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> > How’s that for government transparency!
>
>
>
> --
>
> ↙↙↙ uǝlƃ
>
>
>
> -  . -..-. . -. -.. -..-. .. ... -..-.  . .-. .
>
> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
>
> Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6  bit.ly/virtualfriam un/subscribe
> http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com
>
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>
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> -  . -..-. . -. -.. -..-. .. ... -..-. 

Re: [FRIAM] numbers

[Tom Johnson]

Nick:
I would suggest that the 2010 population data is pretty thin for analysis.
Off the top of my head, our 87505 ZIP has about 25k people as of 2019.  ZIP
87507 has about 50k.  Hence the crying need for an appropriate denominator
when looking at cases by ZIP.
Tom
Tom


Tom Johnson - t...@jtjohnson.com
Institute for Analytic Journalism   -- Santa Fe, NM USA
505.577.6482(c)505.473.9646(h)
*NM Foundation for Open Government* 
*Check out It's The People's Data
*





Virus-free.
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<#DAB4FAD8-2DD7-40BB-A1B8-4E2AA1F9FDF2>

On Mon, Nov 2, 2020 at 12:27 PM  wrote:

> Thanks, Glen, I think the relevant data line was POP100, although I don't
> know why "100".  In a  sane world, that would be the population in
> hundreds, but that would give our zip code a population of 4.5 million,
> which seems a bit  heavy.  In any case, for those of  you following case
> increments by zip code, here are some denominators as of 2010, as well as
> the most recent per day 7 day increments. .  The second two columns are
> deviation are expectation and deviation.  No surprises there, except that
> there seems to be a bit of a run of cases out by the golf course.  507 has
> a third more cases than it should have, which demonstrates once again that
> it's better for your health to be rich than poor.  *Caveat emptor:* these
> calculations were done literally on the back of an envelope by an 82 year
> old guy with poor eyesight and C's in math.
>
>
>
> 501 - 15,147  - 13% - 02.3c - 4  -
>
> 505 - 31,013  - 25% - 06.0   - 8  -
>
> 506 - 12, 580 - 09% - 05.5   - 3 +
>
> 507 - 45, 890 - 38% - 18.0   - 12 ++
>
> 508 - 18, 183 - 15% - 01.5  -  5 -
>
>
>
> Nick
>
>
>
> Nicholas Thompson
>
> Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology
>
> Clark University
>
> thompnicks...@gmail.com
>
> https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/
>
>
>
>
>
> -Original Message-
> From: Friam  On Behalf Of u?l? ???
> Sent: Monday, November 2, 2020 12:08 PM
> To: FriAM 
> Subject: Re: [FRIAM] numbers
>
>
>
> And if you don't want to download a huge file, you can use the census web
> app:
>
>
>
> E.g. for my zip code (98502):
>
>
>
>
> https://tigerweb.geo.census.gov/arcgis/rest/services/TIGERweb/PUMA_TAD_TAZ_UGA_ZCTA/MapServer/7/query?where=ZCTA5%3D%2798502%27=esriGeometryEnvelope==esriSpatialRelIntersects==*=false=falsefalse=falsefalse=false==falsefalsehtml
>
>
>
> I'd say this is an excellent example of government transparency.
>
>
>
> On 11/2/20 9:08 AM, Barry MacKichan wrote:
>
> > One of the first search hits is
>
> > https://www.kaggle.com/census/us-population-by-zip-code
>
> > 
>
> > —Barry
>
> >
>
> > On 2 Nov 2020, at 11:59, thompnicks...@gmail.com wrote:
>
> >
>
> > Is it possible to get population by zipcode?  It seems like it’s
>
> > proprietary info.
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> > How’s that for government transparency!
>
>
>
> --
>
> ↙↙↙ uǝlƃ
>
>
>
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>
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>
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Re: [FRIAM] numbers

[thompnickson2]

Thanks, Glen, I think the relevant data line was POP100, although I don't know 
why "100".  In a  sane world, that would be the population in hundreds, but 
that would give our zip code a population of 4.5 million, which seems a bit  
heavy.  In any case, for those of  you following case increments by zip code, 
here are some denominators as of 2010, as well as the most recent per day 7 day 
increments. .  The second two columns are deviation are expectation and 
deviation.  No surprises there, except that there seems to be a bit of a run of 
cases out by the golf course.  507 has a third more cases than it should have, 
which demonstrates once again that it's better for your health to be rich than 
poor.  Caveat emptor: these calculations were done literally on the back of an 
envelope by an 82 year old guy with poor eyesight and C's in math.  

 

501 - 15,147  - 13% - 02.3c - 4  -

505 - 31,013  - 25% - 06.0   - 8  -

506 - 12, 580 - 09% - 05.5   - 3 +

507 - 45, 890 - 38% - 18.0   - 12 ++

508 - 18, 183 - 15% - 01.5  -  5 -

 

Nick 

 

Nicholas Thompson

Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology

Clark University

thompnicks...@gmail.com

https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

 

 

-Original Message-
From: Friam  On Behalf Of u?l? ???
Sent: Monday, November 2, 2020 12:08 PM
To: FriAM 
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] numbers

 

And if you don't want to download a huge file, you can use the census web app:

 

E.g. for my zip code (98502):

 

https://tigerweb.geo.census.gov/arcgis/rest/services/TIGERweb/PUMA_TAD_TAZ_UGA_ZCTA/MapServer/7/query?where=ZCTA5%3D%2798502%27=esriGeometryEnvelope==esriSpatialRelIntersects==*=false=falsefalse=falsefalse=false==falsefalsehtml

 

I'd say this is an excellent example of government transparency.

 

On 11/2/20 9:08 AM, Barry MacKichan wrote:

> One of the first search hits is 

>   
> https://www.kaggle.com/census/us-population-by-zip-code 

> <  
> https://www.kaggle.com/census/us-population-by-zip-code>

> —Barry

> 

> On 2 Nov 2020, at 11:59,   
> thompnicks...@gmail.com wrote:

> 

> Is it possible to get population by zipcode?  It seems like it’s 

> proprietary info.

> 

>  

> 

> How’s that for government transparency!

 

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Re: [FRIAM] numbers

[Tom Johnson]

Sure.  That's relatively easy:
 
https://www.mapbusinessonline.com/Solution.aspx/DemographicMapping?msclkid=330ecefd29021db98663915d73f04876_source=bing_medium=cpc_campaign=Campaign+%231_term=demographic+data+by+zip+code_content=Demographic+maps=cd0e5586-e53d-4b1c-b9c2-8bb55a87109a

and
http://zipatlas.com/us/nm/zip-code-comparison/population-density.htm

TJ


Tom Johnson - t...@jtjohnson.com
Institute for Analytic Journalism   -- Santa Fe, NM USA
505.577.6482(c)505.473.9646(h)
*NM Foundation for Open Government* 
*Check out It's The People's Data
*





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<#DAB4FAD8-2DD7-40BB-A1B8-4E2AA1F9FDF2>

On Mon, Nov 2, 2020 at 9:59 AM  wrote:

> Is it possible to get population by zipcode?  It seems like it’s
> proprietary info.
>
>
>
> How’s that for government transparency!
>
>
>
> N
>
>
>
> Nicholas Thompson
>
> Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology
>
> Clark University
>
> thompnicks...@gmail.com
>
> https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/
>
>
>
>
>
> *From:* Friam  *On Behalf Of *Barry MacKichan
> *Sent:* Monday, November 2, 2020 10:31 AM
> *To:* The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <
> friam@redfish.com>
> *Subject:* Re: [FRIAM] numbers
>
>
>
> The other thing that has me tearing out my hair (really a serious problem
> at this point) is the maps where they shade the state or county by the
> cases or deaths relative to the population. The rates are correct, but a
> high rate in Elko County, Nevada hits you eye but the same rate in King
> County, New York (aka Manhattan) is almost invisible.
> —Barry
>
> On 2 Nov 2020, at 11:09, Tom Johnson wrote:
>
> Both numbers may be accurate but not particularly helpful bcs they lack
> context. One would have to start with, at least, a ratio of cases to some
> level of population, per 10,000 or 100,000,etc.
>
>
>
> It drives me nuts that the state's health department or somebody publishes
> daily cases by ZIP without showing the population of those ZIPs. And then
> newspapers like the New Mexican publish the case numbers without context.
>
> T.
>
>
>
> On Mon, Nov 2, 2020, 9:01 AM Prof David West  wrote:
>
> Which is scarier?
>
>   -- 41 out of 50 states show an increase in COVID cases.
>   -- 105 out of 3,141 counties show an increase in COVID cases.
>
> Which is more accurate?
>
> Which number should guide policy?
>
> davew
>
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>


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Re: [FRIAM] election eve

[uǝlƃ ↙↙↙]

What's happening in Minnesota?

https://electoral-vote.com/evp2020/Pres/Graphs/minnesota.html
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/minnesota/
https://electionprojection.com/minnesota-presidential-election.php
https://www.politico.com/2020-election/race-forecasts-and-predictions/minnesota/


On 11/2/20 8:42 AM, Marcus Daniels wrote:
> 
> -Original Message-
> From: Friam  On Behalf Of Prof David West
> Sent: Monday, November 2, 2020 8:26 AM
> To: friam@redfish.com
> Subject: [FRIAM] election eve
> 
> (Everyone is seeing Wisconsin as must win and ignoring what is happening in 
> Minnesota, a state with the same 10 votes as Wisconsin.)


-- 
↙↙↙ uǝlƃ

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Re: [FRIAM] numbers

[uǝlƃ ↙↙↙]

And if you don't want to download a huge file, you can use the census web app:

E.g. for my zip code (98502):

https://tigerweb.geo.census.gov/arcgis/rest/services/TIGERweb/PUMA_TAD_TAZ_UGA_ZCTA/MapServer/7/query?where=ZCTA5%3D%2798502%27=esriGeometryEnvelope==esriSpatialRelIntersects==*=false=falsefalse=falsefalse=false==falsefalsehtml

I'd say this is an excellent example of government transparency.

On 11/2/20 9:08 AM, Barry MacKichan wrote:
> One of the first search hits is 
> https://www.kaggle.com/census/us-population-by-zip-code 
> 
> —Barry
> 
> On 2 Nov 2020, at 11:59, thompnicks...@gmail.com wrote:
> 
> Is it possible to get population by zipcode?  It seems like it’s 
> proprietary info. 
> 
>  
> 
> How’s that for government transparency!

-- 
↙↙↙ uǝlƃ

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Re: [FRIAM] numbers

[Barry MacKichan]

One of the first search hits is 
https://www.kaggle.com/census/us-population-by-zip-code

—Barry

On 2 Nov 2020, at 11:59, thompnicks...@gmail.com wrote:

Is it possible to get population by zipcode?  It seems like it’s 
proprietary info.




How’s that for government transparency!



N



Nicholas Thompson

Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology

Clark University

  thompnicks...@gmail.com

  
https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/






From: Friam  On Behalf Of Barry MacKichan
Sent: Monday, November 2, 2020 10:31 AM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group 


Subject: Re: [FRIAM] numbers



The other thing that has me tearing out my hair (really a serious 
problem at this point) is the maps where they shade the state or 
county by the cases or deaths relative to the population. The rates 
are correct, but a high rate in Elko County, Nevada hits you eye but 
the same rate in King County, New York (aka Manhattan) is almost 
invisible.

—Barry

On 2 Nov 2020, at 11:09, Tom Johnson wrote:

Both numbers may be accurate but not particularly helpful bcs they 
lack context. One would have to start with, at least, a ratio of cases 
to some level of population, per 10,000 or 100,000,etc.




It drives me nuts that the state's health department or somebody 
publishes daily cases by ZIP without showing the population of those 
ZIPs. And then newspapers like the New Mexican publish the case 
numbers without context.


T.



On Mon, Nov 2, 2020, 9:01 AM Prof David West  > wrote:


Which is scarier?

  -- 41 out of 50 states show an increase in COVID cases.
  -- 105 out of 3,141 counties show an increase in COVID cases.

Which is more accurate?

Which number should guide policy?

davew

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Re: [FRIAM] ideological convergence, fringe fluidity, and the salad bar

[uǝlƃ ↙↙↙]

I must not have any idea what you mean by zealotry and True Believer psychology 
if you don't see it in the right wing groups. The 3 percenters, oath keepers, 
and sovereign citizen groups sure look like zealots and TBers to me.

Can you describe the concepts (zealotry and TBP) in a way that shows those 3 
groups (3%, OK, SC) don't exhibit them?

On 11/2/20 8:42 AM, Prof David West wrote:
> To be a threat, in my opinion, some degree of zealotry and True Believer 
> psychology has to be present. The only place I see this kind of mindset is 
> among the far left.


-- 
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Re: [FRIAM] numbers

[thompnickson2]

Is it possible to get population by zipcode?  It seems like it’s proprietary 
info.  

 

How’s that for government transparency!

 

N 

 

Nicholas Thompson

Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology

Clark University

  thompnicks...@gmail.com

  
https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

 

 

From: Friam  On Behalf Of Barry MacKichan
Sent: Monday, November 2, 2020 10:31 AM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group 
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] numbers

 

The other thing that has me tearing out my hair (really a serious problem at 
this point) is the maps where they shade the state or county by the cases or 
deaths relative to the population. The rates are correct, but a high rate in 
Elko County, Nevada hits you eye but the same rate in King County, New York 
(aka Manhattan) is almost invisible.
—Barry

On 2 Nov 2020, at 11:09, Tom Johnson wrote:

Both numbers may be accurate but not particularly helpful bcs they lack 
context. One would have to start with, at least, a ratio of cases to some level 
of population, per 10,000 or 100,000,etc. 

 

It drives me nuts that the state's health department or somebody publishes 
daily cases by ZIP without showing the population of those ZIPs. And then 
newspapers like the New Mexican publish the case numbers without context. 

T. 

 

On Mon, Nov 2, 2020, 9:01 AM Prof David West mailto:profw...@fastmail.fm> > wrote:

Which is scarier?

  -- 41 out of 50 states show an increase in COVID cases.
  -- 105 out of 3,141 counties show an increase in COVID cases.

Which is more accurate?

Which number should guide policy?

davew

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Re: [FRIAM] numbers

[Gary Schiltz]

For me, neither is scary. It contributes to my personal policy of avoiding
densely populated areas.

On Mon, Nov 2, 2020 at 11:01 AM Prof David West 
wrote:

> Which is scarier?
>
>   -- 41 out of 50 states show an increase in COVID cases.
>   -- 105 out of 3,141 counties show an increase in COVID cases.
>
> Which is more accurate?
>
> Which number should guide policy?
>
> davew
>
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Re: [FRIAM] ideological convergence, fringe fluidity, and the salad bar

[Prof David West]

This is somewhat orthogonal to Glen's question, but might be used as context 
for thinking about it.

About six years ago, I spent the summer playing anthropologist among 
'militias'. 'posses', and 'separatist' ultra-far right groups in Eastern Oregon 
and Idaho. I did not have the time or funds to extend my research to similar 
groups in the Southeast U.S.

These people pose no threat. All of the groups were dominated by one 
quasi-charismatic bully and 4-6 sycophants and some number of "weekend 
followers."

Yes, they have a lot of guns: grenade launchers, mortars, fully automatic 
machine guns, and "next week we will be purchasing a SAM or two." (Next week 
obviously never comes.)

They spend a lot of time planning and scheming, but they cannot keep their 
mouths shut. Everyone in the community surrounding them knows all about any 
plans as fast as they are made. The FBI must know them as well.

The only threat - multiple repeats of Ruby Ridge.

To be a threat, in my opinion, some degree of zealotry and True Believer 
psychology has to be present. The only place I see this kind of mindset is 
among the far left.

davew


On Mon, Nov 2, 2020, at 8:44 AM, uǝlƃ ↙↙↙ wrote:
> 
> The Terrorist Threat from the Fractured Far Right
> https://www.lawfareblog.com/terrorist-threat-fractured-far-right
> 
> The "Salad Bar" or what I typically call "cafeteria style" 
> stochastically accumulated naturfacts has been a hallmark of the fringy 
> people I end up talking to. It's rarely, but sometimes, successful to 
> identify contradictions between the nuggets they've accumulated. 
> Consistency is simply not a core component of human reasoning, which is 
> why I like defeasible and paraconsistent logics.
> 
> The question I have is whether or not we *have* to quell all the atoms 
> in which the far-right has blossomed in order for it to die out? The 
> whole "united we stand" rhetoric seems to be a form of 
> bureaucracy/consistency that is needed for large-scale engineering 
> projects but totally unnecessary for large-scale destruction and 
> violence. Is its atomization a sign that it's dying? Or a more intense 
> risk of its success? This "foam" of little right-wing bubbles seems 
> similar to free market innovation rhetoric ... or the diversity of 
> COVID-19 responses amongst the states, or even "evolution happens 
> faster under environmental stress". From an intelligence and homeland 
> security standpoint, can we afford to allow even 1 tiny bubble to 
> achieve its ends? Or do we have to squash them all?
> 
> And if the latter, is this an example of complexity from simple rules, 
> where if we were to understand those core rules, we could squash them 
> all strategically?
> 
> -- 
> ↙↙↙ uǝlƃ
> 
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>

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Re: [FRIAM] election eve

[Marcus Daniels]

I'm cautiously optimistic that Biden will win early.Dave could be right, in 
which case, yeah, who cares what happens.
The most exciting thing that could happen would be that Biden takes Texas.

-Original Message-
From: Friam  On Behalf Of Prof David West
Sent: Monday, November 2, 2020 8:26 AM
To: friam@redfish.com
Subject: [FRIAM] election eve

Frank put his prediction on the list, so I guess it is OK to add mine.

Last time I was 100% certain of my predictions. This time between 60-75 percent 
certain.

Trump will win by roughly the same electoral college numbers as last time, with 
minor changes, e.g. swapping Wisconsin for Minnesota. (Everyone is seeing 
Wisconsin as must win and ignoring what is happening in Minnesota, a state with 
the same 10 votes as Wisconsin.)

This result will be apparent Nov. 3-5.  Late ballots will be overwhelmingly for 
Biden and might even threaten the electoral college result. Lawsuits in 
abundance.

Ultimately Trump will win. Riots in the street. The leftist "Protect The Vote" 
movement (Trump-ers have one similarly or identically named) already has plans 
in place for "peaceful" protests — starting Nov. 4 in NY and DC, so they must 
share my belief to some degree — and are actively working with old fart 60's 
leftists to define/decide necessary actions when the demonstrations prove 
insufficient. (I was actually approached by an old colleague from the Weather 
Underground so ascertain my interest in enlisting.)

davew

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Re: [FRIAM] numbers

[Barry MacKichan]

The other thing that has me tearing out my hair (really a serious 
problem at this point) is the maps where they shade the state or county 
by the cases or deaths relative to the population. The rates are 
correct, but a high rate in Elko County, Nevada hits you eye but the 
same rate in King County, New York (aka Manhattan) is almost invisible.

—Barry

On 2 Nov 2020, at 11:09, Tom Johnson wrote:

Both numbers may be accurate but not particularly helpful bcs they 
lack
context. One would have to start with, at least, a ratio of cases to 
some

level of population, per 10,000 or 100,000,etc.

It drives me nuts that the state's health department or somebody 
publishes
daily cases by ZIP without showing the population of those ZIPs. And 
then
newspapers like the New Mexican publish the case numbers without 
context.

T.

On Mon, Nov 2, 2020, 9:01 AM Prof David West  
wrote:



Which is scarier?

  -- 41 out of 50 states show an increase in COVID cases.
  -- 105 out of 3,141 counties show an increase in COVID cases.

Which is more accurate?

Which number should guide policy?

davew

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[FRIAM] election eve

[Prof David West]

Frank put his prediction on the list, so I guess it is OK to add mine.

Last time I was 100% certain of my predictions. This time between 60-75 percent 
certain.

Trump will win by roughly the same electoral college numbers as last time, with 
minor changes, e.g. swapping Wisconsin for Minnesota. (Everyone is seeing 
Wisconsin as must win and ignoring what is happening in Minnesota, a state with 
the same 10 votes as Wisconsin.)

This result will be apparent Nov. 3-5.  Late ballots will be overwhelmingly for 
Biden and might even threaten the electoral college result. Lawsuits in 
abundance.

Ultimately Trump will win. Riots in the street. The leftist "Protect The Vote" 
movement (Trump-ers have one similarly or identically named) already has plans 
in place for "peaceful" protests — starting Nov. 4 in NY and DC, so they must 
share my belief to some degree — and are actively working with old fart 60's 
leftists to define/decide necessary actions when the demonstrations prove 
insufficient. (I was actually approached by an old colleague from the Weather 
Underground so ascertain my interest in enlisting.)

davew

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Re: [FRIAM] What's in a name? MOTH to a Flame

[Barry MacKichan]

When I interviewed at Microsoft, one of my interviewers was Charles 
Simonyi, the originator of what is called “Hungarian”. It is a small 
set of rules and a bunch of prefixes used to encode type information in 
variable and function names. For example, ‘lpszName’ is the name of 
a long pointer to a zero-terminated string. It doesn’t work well when 
there are a lot of user-defined types, such as C++ classes. I was 
unaware of this before the interview.


The interview included implementing a function on a blackboard. At some 
point I muttered that the hardest part of programming is coming up with 
names. I think I became a shoo-in at that point. (I still do believe 
that about names).


—Barry

On 1 Nov 2020, at 11:59, Stephen Guerin wrote:

Naming may seem trivial and arbitrary but it is important as this [CS 
aphorism 
attests]().
      "There are 2 hard problems in computer science: cache 
invalidation, naming things, and off-by-1 errors."
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Re: [FRIAM] numbers

[George Duncan]

Agreed, Tom. Also, what does "increase" mean?

George Duncan
Emeritus Professor of Statistics, Carnegie Mellon University
georgeduncanart.com
See posts on Facebook, Twitter, and Instagram
Land: (505) 983-6895
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My art theme: Dynamic exposition of the tension between matrix order and
luminous chaos.

"Attempt what is not certain. Certainty may or may not come later. It may
then be a valuable delusion."
>From "Notes to myself on beginning a painting" by Richard Diebenkorn.

"It's that knife-edge of uncertainty where we come alive to our truest
power." Joanna Macy.




On Mon, Nov 2, 2020 at 9:11 AM Tom Johnson  wrote:

> Both numbers may be accurate but not particularly helpful bcs they lack
> context. One would have to start with, at least, a ratio of cases to some
> level of population, per 10,000 or 100,000,etc.
>
> It drives me nuts that the state's health department or somebody publishes
> daily cases by ZIP without showing the population of those ZIPs. And then
> newspapers like the New Mexican publish the case numbers without context.
> T.
>
> On Mon, Nov 2, 2020, 9:01 AM Prof David West  wrote:
>
>> Which is scarier?
>>
>>   -- 41 out of 50 states show an increase in COVID cases.
>>   -- 105 out of 3,141 counties show an increase in COVID cases.
>>
>> Which is more accurate?
>>
>> Which number should guide policy?
>>
>> davew
>>
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>>
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Re: [FRIAM] high turnout and tight races?

[uǝlƃ ↙↙↙]

Excellent! As we're seeing with the re-politicization of the SCOTUS, more 
decisions are made in smoky back rooms than I'd been reared to believe.  These 
Legal Eagle episodes are helpful:

Problems with the Electoral College ft. Extra Credits
https://youtu.be/KYVw9lPiCHQ



On 11/2/20 8:05 AM, Barry MacKichan wrote:
> I think I have a counterexample, if such things exist when discussing 
> probability.
> 
> The US presidential election with the highest turnout (81.8%, as a percentage 
> of the voting age population) was the Tiden-Hayes election of 1876. It is 
> also the smallest electoral vote victory (185-184). The winner of the popular 
> vote (by 3%) did not win the election. The result ultimately came from a 
> back, presumably smoky, room.
> 
> —Barry
> 
> On 28 Oct 2020, at 19:19, uǝlƃ ↙↙↙ wrote:
> 
> From:
> 
> https://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2020/Pres/Maps/Oct28.html#item-7 
> 
> "6. High turnout makes razor-thin victories, like the ones Trump notched 
> in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania in 2016, much less likely."
> 
> Is that true? I've always heard that tight races lead to higher turnout, 
> which would imply that high turnout would correlate WITH thin victories, not 
> against them.


-- 
↙↙↙ uǝlƃ

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Re: [FRIAM] numbers

[Marcus Daniels]

Dollars should have a positive superlinear relationship to population density 
because the risk of transmission is higher in more densely populated regions.

-Original Message-
From: Friam  On Behalf Of Prof David West
Sent: Monday, November 2, 2020 8:01 AM
To: friam@redfish.com
Subject: [FRIAM] numbers

Which is scarier?

  -- 41 out of 50 states show an increase in COVID cases.
  -- 105 out of 3,141 counties show an increase in COVID cases.

Which is more accurate?

Which number should guide policy?

davew

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Re: [FRIAM] numbers

[Tom Johnson]

Both numbers may be accurate but not particularly helpful bcs they lack
context. One would have to start with, at least, a ratio of cases to some
level of population, per 10,000 or 100,000,etc.

It drives me nuts that the state's health department or somebody publishes
daily cases by ZIP without showing the population of those ZIPs. And then
newspapers like the New Mexican publish the case numbers without context.
T.

On Mon, Nov 2, 2020, 9:01 AM Prof David West  wrote:

> Which is scarier?
>
>   -- 41 out of 50 states show an increase in COVID cases.
>   -- 105 out of 3,141 counties show an increase in COVID cases.
>
> Which is more accurate?
>
> Which number should guide policy?
>
> davew
>
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>
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Re: [FRIAM] high turnout and tight races?

[Barry MacKichan]

I think I have a counterexample, if such things exist when discussing 
probability.


The US presidential election with the highest turnout (81.8%, as a 
percentage of the voting age population) was the Tiden-Hayes election of 
1876. It is also the smallest electoral vote victory (185-184). The 
winner of the popular vote (by 3%) did not win the election. The result 
ultimately came from a back, presumably smoky, room.


—Barry

On 28 Oct 2020, at 19:19, uǝlƃ ↙↙↙ wrote:


From:

https://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2020/Pres/Maps/Oct28.html#item-7
"6. High turnout makes razor-thin victories, like the ones Trump 
notched in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania in 2016, much less 
likely."


Is that true? I've always heard that tight races lead to higher 
turnout, which would imply that high turnout would correlate WITH thin 
victories, not against them.


--
↙↙↙ uǝlƃ

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[FRIAM] numbers

[Prof David West]

Which is scarier?

  -- 41 out of 50 states show an increase in COVID cases.
  -- 105 out of 3,141 counties show an increase in COVID cases.

Which is more accurate?

Which number should guide policy?

davew

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[FRIAM] ideological convergence, fringe fluidity, and the salad bar

[uǝlƃ ↙↙↙]

The Terrorist Threat from the Fractured Far Right
https://www.lawfareblog.com/terrorist-threat-fractured-far-right

The "Salad Bar" or what I typically call "cafeteria style" stochastically 
accumulated naturfacts has been a hallmark of the fringy people I end up 
talking to. It's rarely, but sometimes, successful to identify contradictions 
between the nuggets they've accumulated. Consistency is simply not a core 
component of human reasoning, which is why I like defeasible and paraconsistent 
logics.

The question I have is whether or not we *have* to quell all the atoms in which 
the far-right has blossomed in order for it to die out? The whole "united we 
stand" rhetoric seems to be a form of bureaucracy/consistency that is needed 
for large-scale engineering projects but totally unnecessary for large-scale 
destruction and violence. Is its atomization a sign that it's dying? Or a more 
intense risk of its success? This "foam" of little right-wing bubbles seems 
similar to free market innovation rhetoric ... or the diversity of COVID-19 
responses amongst the states, or even "evolution happens faster under 
environmental stress". From an intelligence and homeland security standpoint, 
can we afford to allow even 1 tiny bubble to achieve its ends? Or do we have to 
squash them all?

And if the latter, is this an example of complexity from simple rules, where if 
we were to understand those core rules, we could squash them all strategically?

-- 
↙↙↙ uǝlƃ

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