Re: [FRIAM] YIKES!: Coronavirus New Mexico numbers.xlsx

[Prof David West]

Liminal --> use the analogy Schrodinger's cat, until the box is opened, the cat 
is both alive and dead and neither alive nor dead, it is betwixt and between. 
That is a kind of binary liminality. Generalize from that to N-ary space.

von Gennep was talking about rights of passage — of which few of us have really 
experienced except in pale imitations. Two examples: from childhood to 
adulthood, with rites and rituals that separate you from your identify as a 
child, followed by a liminal period for the duration of the ritual, then 
reincorporation with new clothes new privileges, new responsibilities as an 
adult. Second, a secular person is stripped naked, cleansed, (separation) then 
engages in guided prayer and other purification rituals (liminal) then dressed 
in sacred clothing as a priest.

In Tibetan Buddhism, you die and are in Bardo. If you receive proper guidance, 
your spirit can avoid being reincarnated and reborn. Bardo is liminal between 
past life and future life (if you fail to accept the Light.")

In Dante's Divine Comedy, Purgatorio is a kind of liminal period where each of 
your sins (PPP written on your forehead) are removed one at a time as you 
ascend the peak.

davew


On Thu, Apr 2, 2020, at 12:59 PM, Frank Wimberly wrote:
> "Liminal etc." What??
> 
> 
> Morelocks of Friam unite. That I could transliterate.
> 
> 
> ---
> Frank C. Wimberly
> 505 670-9918
> Santa Fe, NM
> -- --- .-. . .-.. --- -.-. -.- ... / --- ..-. / ..-. .-. .. .- -- / ..- -. .. 
> - .
> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
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> 
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.
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Re: [FRIAM] YIKES!: Coronavirus New Mexico numbers.xlsx

[uǝlƃ ☣]

Excellent! Thanks. It does make the analogy a little more defensible if the 
couplings between the locally structured Ising models (chained together by 
common variables) can be relaxed, maybe allowing mixed phase whole models. 

On 4/2/20 11:31 AM, Marcus Daniels wrote:
> One might have a situation like below where the bond strengths between 
> molecules were gradually getting weaker, giving the effect of an increasing 
> temperature.   If the logical operations (as described) were in place of H2O, 
> then the "molecules" would be a bit more complex and retain at least the same 
> relative magnitudes between the bonds, but some of the bonds between the 
> logical operations could be relaxed.   At a high level, to your question, the 
> metaphor that comes to mind is ice cubes in a cup of water. 

-- 
☣ uǝlƃ

-- --- .-. . .-.. --- -.-. -.- ... / --- ..-. / ..-. .-. .. .- -- / ..- -. .. - 
.
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Re: [FRIAM] YIKES!: Coronavirus New Mexico numbers.xlsx

[Frank Wimberly]

"Liminal etc."  What??


Morelocks of Friam unite.  That I could transliterate.


---
Frank C. Wimberly
505 670-9918
Santa Fe, NM
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.
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Re: [FRIAM] YIKES!: Coronavirus New Mexico numbers.xlsx

[Prof David West]

Liminal comes to mind as well - from von Gennep's discussion of rights of 
passage. Separation (from all that was, including individual identity) Liminal 
(where all things are possible) Incorporation (reintegration into a new 
reality).

You are supposed to have a guide through the Liminal in order to avoid getting 
lost or Incorporation into the wrong thing. Kind of like the guide in the Bardo 
Thodol.

Socially we are definitely experiencing Separation. But if our only guide is 
past experience we are destined to a reincarnation of the same old same old 
(Glen's authoritarianism and other's corporate serfdom). The potential of the 
Liminal will be lost.

davew


On Thu, Apr 2, 2020, at 10:55 AM, Steven A Smith wrote:
> My observation is that from Dickens' "best of times, worst of times". I think 
> as an inflection/bifurcation point, many things are possible. "sensitive 
> dependence on initial conditions". In the spirit of "creative visualization" 
> and "self-fulfilling prophecies" there are risks and opportunities around 
> being too paranoid or too pollyanna and opportunities around being creatively 
> positive and thoughtfully wary. I think there is a quad-chart in there 
> somewhere?

> "Svaha" is a word for "the time between the lightning and the thunder... when 
> all things are possible". (alternately attributed to Native Americans, to old 
> Norse, etc... but apparently coined by this book: 
> https://www.amazon.com/Svaha-Charles-Lint/dp/0312876505 in the 90s... 

> And not to be confused with the much older Sanskrit *svāhā *which feels 
> entertainingly relevant as well:
> ** https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sv%C4%81h%C4%81

> On 4/2/20 9:42 AM, uǝlƃ ☣ wrote:
>> I've seen a few articles with titles like "Coronavirus is the death of 
>> Neoliberalism" or "... Capitalism" and whatnot. I'm skeptical. As much as I 
>> reject analogies between societal upheaval/collapse and phases of matter, I 
>> do believe in inflection points. My guess is that authoritarianism is what 
>> lies ahead of us on the other side of this inflection. We were already 
>> trending that way and I bet we'll continue. This inflection looks more like 
>> a minor rate change than anything fundamental.

This article was hopeful:

The coronavirus crisis has exposed the ugly truth about celebrity culture and 
capitalism 
>> https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/mar/31/the-coronavirus-crisis-has-exposed-the-ugly-truth-about-celebrity-culture-and-capitalism

There's nothing more disgusting to me than our celebrity fetish. But this 
article was pessimistic:

Invisible man? Amid pandemic, Biden sidelined by omnipresent Trump
>> https://news.yahoo.com/invisible-man-amid-pandemic-biden-sidelined-omnipresent-trump-082411045.html

My faith in my fellow humans' *tastes* is always crushed. Everyone tends to 
flock to the least common denominator. (My primary objection to 
instant-runoff/ranked-choice voting and pop music, as well as overly reductive 
rating systems like Rotten Tomatoes, etc.) The "wisdom of crowds" is an 
oxymoron. >8^D

On 4/2/20 8:05 AM, Prof David West wrote:
>> 
>>> Governments cannot print and distribute money fast enough to prevent a 
>>> major collapse of world economic order and concomitant social breakdown.
>>> 
>> 
> 
> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
> Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
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> archives back to 2003: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/
> FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove
> 
-- --- .-. . .-.. --- -.-. -.- ... / --- ..-. / ..-. .-. .. .- -- / ..- -. .. - 
.
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Re: [FRIAM] YIKES!: Coronavirus New Mexico numbers.xlsx

[Marcus Daniels]

Glen writes:

< Can the sub-models coupled like in the paper be in different phases? Or is 
the coupling "tight" such that a transition in one sub-system forces a 
transition everywhere? >

One might have a situation like below where the bond strengths between 
molecules were gradually getting weaker, giving the effect of an increasing 
temperature.   If the logical operations (as described) were in place of H2O, 
then the "molecules" would be a bit more complex and retain at least the same 
relative magnitudes between the bonds, but some of the bonds between the 
logical operations could be relaxed.   At a high level, to your question, the 
metaphor that comes to mind is ice cubes in a cup of water.

[cid:b1d8025b-3083-480b-936e-a0668141f1b3]

From: Friam  on behalf of uǝlƃ ☣ 

Sent: Thursday, April 2, 2020 11:50 AM
To: FriAM 
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] YIKES!: Coronavirus New Mexico numbers.xlsx

This re-raises Marcus' contribution to preserving the analogy between phase 
changes and socio-political upheaval:

On 3/23/20 9:48 AM, Marcus Daniels wrote:
> https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fict.2016.00014/full

I haven't had time to answer a question I have through my own homework. So I'll 
just risk embarrassment and ask it here. Can the sub-models coupled like in the 
paper be in different phases? Or is the coupling "tight" such that a transition 
in one sub-system forces a transition everywhere?

Carrying on abusing the bad analogy ... if the coupling is loose enough to 
allow mixed phases, then I'd argue the Medea hypothesis is flawed and composite 
systems do not work that way. It's not suicide at all, but more like a dynamic 
immune system, where one part attacks another part, perhaps because of 
ignorance that the other part is coupled to itself in some way.

  "Give me back my haand!"
  https://youtu.be/-5XAmupw8jo


On 4/2/20 10:29 AM, Steven A Smith wrote:
> I (re)submit the alternative to Gaia which is the Medea hypothesis:
>
> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Medea_hypothesis
>
> perhaps no more (or less) absurd as an allegorical referent


--
☣ uǝlƃ


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Re: [FRIAM] YIKES!: Coronavirus New Mexico numbers.xlsx

[uǝlƃ ☣]

This re-raises Marcus' contribution to preserving the analogy between phase 
changes and socio-political upheaval:

On 3/23/20 9:48 AM, Marcus Daniels wrote:
> https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fict.2016.00014/full

I haven't had time to answer a question I have through my own homework. So I'll 
just risk embarrassment and ask it here. Can the sub-models coupled like in the 
paper be in different phases? Or is the coupling "tight" such that a transition 
in one sub-system forces a transition everywhere?

Carrying on abusing the bad analogy ... if the coupling is loose enough to 
allow mixed phases, then I'd argue the Medea hypothesis is flawed and composite 
systems do not work that way. It's not suicide at all, but more like a dynamic 
immune system, where one part attacks another part, perhaps because of 
ignorance that the other part is coupled to itself in some way.

  "Give me back my haand!"
  https://youtu.be/-5XAmupw8jo


On 4/2/20 10:29 AM, Steven A Smith wrote:
> I (re)submit the alternative to Gaia which is the Medea hypothesis:
> 
> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Medea_hypothesis
> 
> perhaps no more (or less) absurd as an allegorical referent


-- 
☣ uǝlƃ


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Re: [FRIAM] YIKES!: Coronavirus New Mexico numbers.xlsx

[Steven A Smith]

On 4/2/20 10:20 AM, uǝlƃ ☣ wrote:
> I think she does, indirectly. Homeostasis might be easier to maintain with a 
> diversity of strategies preserved in the milieu. Authoritarianism is a 
> monotonic forcing structure. As long as there's a vibrant ecology of 
> revolutionaries throbbing underneath, then authoritarianism is A-OK. But if 
> it squashes the diversity required to find new solutions over time, then it's 
> not.
>
> On 4/2/20 9:09 AM, Marcus Daniels wrote:
>> I don't think Ms. Gaia cares too much about the authoritarianism problem, 
>> though.  

The current rebalkanisation of the EU (borders stood back up to limit
wandering tourists spreading SARS-CoV-2) is allowing for a diversity of
responses and when this is over (dust settled enough to read the tea
leaves) we will find that diversity of response to be very helpful
compared to say... a one-size-fits-all.   

We complain that the current free-for-all among governors of states is
"a travesty" but truly NOT compared to the travesty if POTUS45 had
chosen (been aware enough, able?) to squash it down.   We'd all be
getting rousted from our shelter-in-place homes to attend Easter
Services at a church of our^H^H^H *his* choice.

The inner-engineer in all of us may rail at the inefficiency of these
"organic" responses, but in the bottom line, I think they will be yet
more "robust".  

I (re)submit the alternative to Gaia which is the Medea hypothesis:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Medea_hypothesis

perhaps no more (or less) absurd as an allegorical referent

- Steve


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Re: [FRIAM] YIKES!: Coronavirus New Mexico numbers.xlsx

[uǝlƃ ☣]

Here's what's in the GDoc:

  https://zoom.us/j/255049879 
  https://bit.ly/virtualfriam

Maybe one of our Morlocks could put that in the overly long suffix to every. 
single. post. that. nobody. ever. deletes. when they hit reply? 8^)

On 4/2/20 9:31 AM, Jochen Fromm wrote:
> Do you have a Zoom meeting tomorrow again?
> [...]
> 
> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
> Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
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> FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove
> 

-- 
☣ uǝlƃ


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Re: [FRIAM] YIKES!: Coronavirus New Mexico numbers.xlsx

[Steven A Smith]

This just in via Guerin from LocoTopia:

Comparative Resilience: 8 Principles for Post-COVID Reconstruction

http://michaelhshuman.com/?p=456


On 4/2/20 10:20 AM, uǝlƃ ☣ wrote:
> I think she does, indirectly. Homeostasis might be easier to maintain with a 
> diversity of strategies preserved in the milieu. Authoritarianism is a 
> monotonic forcing structure. As long as there's a vibrant ecology of 
> revolutionaries throbbing underneath, then authoritarianism is A-OK. But if 
> it squashes the diversity required to find new solutions over time, then it's 
> not.
>
> On 4/2/20 9:09 AM, Marcus Daniels wrote:
>> I don't think Ms. Gaia cares too much about the authoritarianism problem, 
>> though.  

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Re: [FRIAM] YIKES!: Coronavirus New Mexico numbers.xlsx

[Steven A Smith]

On 4/2/20 10:09 AM, Marcus Daniels wrote:
> Dave writes:
>
> < There are 30,000 known coronaviruses in the animal population just
> waiting for the opportune moment to jump species.
>
> I knew there was a way to solve the climate problem. >
>
> I don't think Ms. Gaia cares too much about the authoritarianism
> problem, though. 

In fact, it may have been the very fact of *freeing* ourselves from the
strictest authoritarianism that allowed us to "bloom" (think algae
bloom, not field of flowers) the way we have in the last 100 years.  
Would Communist China and Socialist USSR have "bloomed" the way the
Consumer Capitalist psuedo Democratic "West" did?  


We are now suffering under our own success in many ways.   The Climate
Crisis (IMO) is a disease of ( a certain kind of ) affluence, not
poverty or scarcity.




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Re: [FRIAM] YIKES!: Coronavirus New Mexico numbers.xlsx

[Steven A Smith]

My observation is that from Dickens' "best of times, worst of times".  
I think as an inflection/bifurcation point,   many things are possible. 
"sensitive dependence on initial conditions".   In the spirit of
"creative visualization" and "self-fulfilling prophecies" there are
risks and opportunities around being too paranoid or too pollyanna and
opportunities around being creatively positive and thoughtfully wary.  
I think there is a quad-chart in there somewhere?

"Svaha" is a word for "the time between the lightning and the thunder...
when all things are possible". (alternately attributed to Native
Americans, to old Norse, etc... but apparently coined by this book:
https://www.amazon.com/Svaha-Charles-Lint/dp/0312876505 in the 90s... 

And not to be confused with the much older Sanskrit /svāhā /which feels
entertainingly relevant as well:
//https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sv%C4%81h%C4%81


On 4/2/20 9:42 AM, uǝlƃ ☣ wrote:
> I've seen a few articles with titles like "Coronavirus is the death of 
> Neoliberalism" or "... Capitalism" and whatnot. I'm skeptical. As much as I 
> reject analogies between societal upheaval/collapse and phases of matter, I 
> do believe in inflection points. My guess is that authoritarianism is what 
> lies ahead of us on the other side of this inflection. We were already 
> trending that way and I bet we'll continue. This inflection looks more like a 
> minor rate change than anything fundamental.
>
> This article was hopeful:
>
> The coronavirus crisis has exposed the ugly truth about celebrity culture and 
> capitalism 
> https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/mar/31/the-coronavirus-crisis-has-exposed-the-ugly-truth-about-celebrity-culture-and-capitalism
>
> There's nothing more disgusting to me than our celebrity fetish. But this 
> article was pessimistic:
>
> Invisible man? Amid pandemic, Biden sidelined by omnipresent Trump
> https://news.yahoo.com/invisible-man-amid-pandemic-biden-sidelined-omnipresent-trump-082411045.html
>
> My faith in my fellow humans' *tastes* is always crushed. Everyone tends to 
> flock to the least common denominator. (My primary objection to 
> instant-runoff/ranked-choice voting and pop music, as well as overly 
> reductive rating systems like Rotten Tomatoes, etc.) The "wisdom of crowds" 
> is an oxymoron. >8^D
>
> On 4/2/20 8:05 AM, Prof David West wrote:
>> Governments cannot print and distribute money fast enough to prevent a major 
>> collapse of world economic order and concomitant social breakdown.

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Re: [FRIAM] YIKES!: Coronavirus New Mexico numbers.xlsx

[Jochen Fromm]

Do you have a Zoom meeting tomorrow again?-J.
 Original message From: thompnicks...@gmail.com Date: 4/2/20  
05:01  (GMT+01:00) To: 'The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group' 
 Subject: [FRIAM] YIKES!: Coronavirus New Mexico 
numbers.xlsx Not good for the theory.  Yes, Tom.  That theory.  Nick 
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Re: [FRIAM] YIKES!: Coronavirus New Mexico numbers.xlsx

[uǝlƃ ☣]

I think she does, indirectly. Homeostasis might be easier to maintain with a 
diversity of strategies preserved in the milieu. Authoritarianism is a 
monotonic forcing structure. As long as there's a vibrant ecology of 
revolutionaries throbbing underneath, then authoritarianism is A-OK. But if it 
squashes the diversity required to find new solutions over time, then it's not.

On 4/2/20 9:09 AM, Marcus Daniels wrote:
> I don't think Ms. Gaia cares too much about the authoritarianism problem, 
> though.  

-- 
☣ uǝlƃ


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Re: [FRIAM] YIKES!: Coronavirus New Mexico numbers.xlsx

[Marcus Daniels]

Dave writes:

< There are 30,000 known coronaviruses in the animal population just waiting 
for the opportune moment to jump species.

I knew there was a way to solve the climate problem. >

I don't think Ms. Gaia cares too much about the authoritarianism problem, 
though.

Marcus


From: Friam  on behalf of Prof David West 

Sent: Thursday, April 2, 2020 9:05 AM
To: friam@redfish.com 
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] YIKES!: Coronavirus New Mexico numbers.xlsx

It is kind of interesting that the religious fundamentalists seem to be in 
denial with regard Covid. I would have expected more "It's God's wrath" or "The 
end is nigh" from that sector.

Even if we hit the 2 million dead in the US, and 5% of the population immune, 
that leaves 95% at severe risk until such time as a vaccine is developed.

Governments cannot print and distribute money fast enough to prevent a major 
collapse of world economic order and concomitant social breakdown.

There are 30,000 known coronaviruses in the animal population just waiting for 
the opportune moment to jump species.

I knew there was a way to solve the climate problem.

davew


On Wed, Apr 1, 2020, at 9:01 PM, thompnicks...@gmail.com wrote:

Not good for the theory.



Yes, Tom.  That theory.



Nick


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Attachments:

  *   Coronavirus New Mexico numbers.xlsx


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Re: [FRIAM] YIKES!: Coronavirus New Mexico numbers.xlsx

[uǝlƃ ☣]

I've seen a few articles with titles like "Coronavirus is the death of 
Neoliberalism" or "... Capitalism" and whatnot. I'm skeptical. As much as I 
reject analogies between societal upheaval/collapse and phases of matter, I do 
believe in inflection points. My guess is that authoritarianism is what lies 
ahead of us on the other side of this inflection. We were already trending that 
way and I bet we'll continue. This inflection looks more like a minor rate 
change than anything fundamental.

This article was hopeful:

The coronavirus crisis has exposed the ugly truth about celebrity culture and 
capitalism 
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/mar/31/the-coronavirus-crisis-has-exposed-the-ugly-truth-about-celebrity-culture-and-capitalism

There's nothing more disgusting to me than our celebrity fetish. But this 
article was pessimistic:

Invisible man? Amid pandemic, Biden sidelined by omnipresent Trump
https://news.yahoo.com/invisible-man-amid-pandemic-biden-sidelined-omnipresent-trump-082411045.html

My faith in my fellow humans' *tastes* is always crushed. Everyone tends to 
flock to the least common denominator. (My primary objection to 
instant-runoff/ranked-choice voting and pop music, as well as overly reductive 
rating systems like Rotten Tomatoes, etc.) The "wisdom of crowds" is an 
oxymoron. >8^D

On 4/2/20 8:05 AM, Prof David West wrote:
> Governments cannot print and distribute money fast enough to prevent a major 
> collapse of world economic order and concomitant social breakdown.

-- 
☣ uǝlƃ


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Re: [FRIAM] YIKES!: Coronavirus New Mexico numbers.xlsx

[Prof David West]

It is kind of interesting that the religious fundamentalists seem to be in 
denial with regard Covid. I would have expected more "It's God's wrath" or "The 
end is nigh" from that sector.

Even if we hit the 2 million dead in the US, and 5% of the population immune, 
that leaves 95% at severe risk until such time as a vaccine is developed.

Governments cannot print and distribute money fast enough to prevent a major 
collapse of world economic order and concomitant social breakdown.

There are 30,000 known coronaviruses in the animal population just waiting for 
the opportune moment to jump species.

I knew there was a way to solve the climate problem.

davew


On Wed, Apr 1, 2020, at 9:01 PM, thompnicks...@gmail.com wrote:
> Not good for the theory.

> 

> Yes, Tom. That theory.

> 

> Nick

> 
> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
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> 
> 
> *Attachments:*
>  * Coronavirus New Mexico numbers.xlsx

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Re: [FRIAM] YIKES!: Coronavirus New Mexico numbers.xlsx

[Frank Wimberly]

As it approaches the peak the derivative will decrease.  We're not there
yet.

---
Frank C. Wimberly
505 670-9918
Santa Fe, NM

On Wed, Apr 1, 2020, 9:33 PM Frank Wimberly  wrote:

> Exponential with increasing derivative.
>
> ---
> Frank C. Wimberly
> 505 670-9918
> Santa Fe, NM
>
> On Wed, Apr 1, 2020, 9:01 PM  wrote:
>
>> Not good for the theory.
>>
>>
>>
>> Yes, Tom.  That theory.
>>
>>
>>
>> Nick
>> 
>> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
>> Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
>> to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com
>> archives back to 2003: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/
>> FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove
>>
>

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Re: [FRIAM] YIKES!: Coronavirus New Mexico numbers.xlsx

[Frank Wimberly]

Exponential with increasing derivative.

---
Frank C. Wimberly
505 670-9918
Santa Fe, NM

On Wed, Apr 1, 2020, 9:01 PM  wrote:

> Not good for the theory.
>
>
>
> Yes, Tom.  That theory.
>
>
>
> Nick
> 
> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
> Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
> to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com
> archives back to 2003: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/
> FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove
>

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