Re: [Marxism] re : Why Tunisia's Revolution Is Islamist-Free
== Rule #1: YOU MUST clip all extraneous text when replying to a message. == On 18/01/2011 00:37, Dan wrote:been encouraged under Ben Ali. is not accurate. Once An(l)-Nahda (meaning renaissance/rebirth in Arabic, an interesting name as it was used by Arabic secularists to define a pro-enlightenment cultural movement in the 19th century) became banned, it fielded independent candidates that totaled ... 15% of the vote (not one third). Sorry Dan, I am aware that the officially acknowledged result was closer to 14%. Francois Burgat William Howell's 'The Islamic Movement in Africa' argues that the true result was plausibly closer to 30-32%. This may be misleading. They take their cue from interviews with leading Islamists in An Nahda. But given the fact that the Islamists were banned, and given that the government rigged the vote, it would seem plausible that their true level of support was undercounted. And that was in 1988. I'm pretty sure it was 1989 when these elections were held: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tunisian_general_election,_1989 Since then, the Algerian civil war has passed by (with its horrific massacres), and in 2011, it is doubtful An-Nahda will get more than 15% of the vote (if even that much). Oh, I think that's probably right. Even if they were permitted to stand, they're not in the same shape they once were. Tunisians will vote for Social Democratic parties, such as the Progressive Democratic Party or the Union for Justice and Labour. In fact, both these parties now have ministers in the new national unity government. The old, hard-core CDR will still garner around 25% of the vote. That's just my personal hunch. I could be completely wrong of course. But since I'm not betting any money ... That's an interesting assessment. Why do you say 25% for the CDR? I'd be interested to know what you think the social base is for the CDR today? -- *Richard Seymour* Writer, blogger and PhD candidate Email: leninstombb...@googlemail.com Website: http://www.leninology.blogspot.com Twitter: http://www.twitter.com/leninology Wiki: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Richard_Seymour_(writer) Book 1: http://www.versobooks.com/books/307-the-liberal-defence-of-murder Book 2: http://www.zero-books.net/obookssite/book/detail/1107/The-Meaning-of-David-Cameron Send list submissions to: Marxism@lists.econ.utah.edu Set your options at: http://lists.econ.utah.edu/mailman/options/marxism/archive%40mail-archive.com
[Marxism] re : Why Tunisia's Revolution Is Islamist-Free
== Rule #1: YOU MUST clip all extraneous text when replying to a message. == I'm totally out of line. This is my 7th post, AND MY LAST. But what Richard Seymour wrote : It's not easy to say, since open support for the Islamists hasn't really been encouraged under Ben Ali. When they stood as independents in the 1989 election, it's estimated that they had almost a third of the vote. Since then, they've been systematically hunted down, is not accurate. Once An(l)-Nahda (meaning renaissance/rebirth in Arabic, an interesting name as it was used by Arabic secularists to define a pro-enlightenment cultural movement in the 19th century) became banned, it fielded independent candidates that totaled ... 15% of the vote (not one third). And that was in 1988. Since then, the Algerian civil war has passed by (with its horrific massacres), and in 2011, it is doubtful An-Nahda will get more than 15% of the vote (if even that much). The only issue that can gain them points is that of Tunisia's relation with Israel. Most Tunisians are ardent pro-Palestinians and if the new regime doesn't cut off relations with Israel, then that might give An-Nahda a boost. Otherwise, I don't see moderate Islamists (which is how An-Nahda now chooses to describe itself) gaining more than 10-1% of the popular vote. Tunisians will vote for Social Democratic parties, such as the Progressive Democratic Party or the Union for Justice and Labour. In fact, both these parties now have ministers in the new national unity government. The old, hard-core CDR will still garner around 25% of the vote. That's just my personal hunch. I could be completely wrong of course. But since I'm not betting any money ... Send list submissions to: Marxism@lists.econ.utah.edu Set your options at: http://lists.econ.utah.edu/mailman/options/marxism/archive%40mail-archive.com
Re: [Marxism] re : Why Tunisia's Revolution Is Islamist-Free
== Rule #1: YOU MUST clip all extraneous text when replying to a message. == Hi Dan Thankfully I don't moderate this list but given the nature of the situation I think it is silly to worry about the limit on posts. that rule exists for a different situation. We are discussing a revolution after all. That's exactly right. If comrades are at each others' throat, I will keep careful track of the number of posts. If they are posting useful information, even in the course of a debate, I will be more flexible. Send list submissions to: Marxism@lists.econ.utah.edu Set your options at: http://lists.econ.utah.edu/mailman/options/marxism/archive%40mail-archive.com
Re: [Marxism] re : Why Tunisia's Revolution Is Islamist-Free
== Rule #1: YOU MUST clip all extraneous text when replying to a message. == I have been monitoring the methalif.org blog that Lou posted to. I cannot gather much detail about the author. He is a teacher but does not speak Arabic. He uses English rather than French. His blog provides a great deal of very instructive local colour, but politically his views are extremely naive especially with regard to the role of the army. He seems to have total faith in it. He recounts one story of the a soldier telling people to find any weapon they could and to wear a white arm band to indicate they were against the militia/police /terrorists. So we have the sight of brave people with sticks defending makeshift barricades against thugs armed with machine guns. It does not seem to have occurred to him (Methalif) that the correct and radical thing for the soldiers to have done would have been to pass out guns to the people. Tthat would have put an end to the pro-Ben Alei thugs, and it would have also have moved everything into a much more revolutionary situation. Methalif repeats the people love the Army but that love if it is real is a potential problem. comradely Gary Send list submissions to: Marxism@lists.econ.utah.edu Set your options at: http://lists.econ.utah.edu/mailman/options/marxism/archive%40mail-archive.com
