Re: [obrolan-bandar] Re: CPO potential rebound??

[Tom DS]

*Sempat lepas sebentar tapi minggu lalu sedikit2 sudah mulai net buy..*
**
*Tunggu akhir minggu ini mau lihat market regional BOPP & PE plastics dulu..
*
**
**
*T.o.m*


On 8/20/08, David Hartanto <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
>
> Still hold FPNI Pak Tom?
>
> --- Pada *Rab, 20/8/08, Tom DS <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>* menulis:
>
> Dari: Tom DS <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
> Topik: Re: [obrolan-bandar] Re: CPO potential rebound??
> Kepada: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com
> Tanggal: Rabu, 20 Agustus, 2008, 5:48 PM
>
>   *Iya Pak Tang...*
> **
> **
> *Nah ini dia nih guru saya sudah turun gunung*
> **
> **
> *T.o.m*
>
>
> On 8/20/08, Welli Tang >
> wrote:
>>
>>Jualan apa saja juga ada resiko, kalau gak laku nanti diomelin
>> boss...  ya nga pak Tom?
>>
>>
>>
>> 2008/8/19 Tom DS >
>>
>>>*Ikutan comment ah..*
>>> **
>>> *Kalau kata pak Abraham Lembang, "jualan bakmie aja ada resiko... Resiko
>>> loss of working capital kalau nggak laku.."*
>>> **
>>> **
>>> *T.o.m*
>>>
>>>
>>> On 8/18/08, t_bumi <[EMAIL PROTECTED] co.id <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>> wrote:
>>>>
>>>>   --- In obrolan-bandar@ yahoogroups. 
>>>> com,
>>>> Hubert Nice <[EMAIL PROTECTED] ..>
>>>> wrote:
>>>> >
>>>> >
>>>> >
>>>> > Ja Benar
>>>>
>>>> > SIP : TBUMI
>>>>
>>>> Semua investasi baik di saham maupun bisnis (seperti pertanian,
>>>>
>>>> perkebunan, supermarket) tentu ada resiko rugi juga. Kelebihan
>>>>
>>>> investasi di saham yaitu investasi ini tak membutuhkan biaya
>>>>
>>>> operasi seperti biaya sewa tempat, gaji pegawai dll. Bila kondisi
>>>>
>>>> market tak baik, disimpan saja saham saham tsb.
>>>>
>>>> > --- On Sun, 8/17/08, t_bumi <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
>>>> >
>>>> > From: t_bumi <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
>>>> > Subject: [obrolan-bandar] Re: CPO potential rebound??
>>>> > To: obrolan-bandar@ yahoogroups. com
>>>> > Date: Sunday, August 17, 2008, 12:59 PM
>>>> >
>>>> >
>>>> >
>>>> >
>>>> >
>>>> >
>>>> > --- In obrolan-bandar@ yahoogroups. com, "Ocean Blue"
>>>> 
>>>> > wrote:
>>>> > >
>>>> > > Hahaha Pak tibum ketauan banyak pegang aali ya? Even pak tibum
>>>> > > yg udah byk pengalaman aja bisa stress bin keki ama target bawah
>>>> aali.
>>>> >
>>>> > > SIP : TBUMI
>>>> >
>>>> > Jika bukan kami yg menikmati harga AALI saat ini, biar saja anak
>>>> >
>>>> > cucu kami yang akan nikmati cuan di ANTM, BUMI, AALI, UNSP, INCO
>>>> DLL.
>>>> >
>>>>
>>>>
>>>
>>
>>
>>
>
>
>
> --
> Nama baru untuk Anda!
> <http://sg.rd.yahoo.com/id/mail/domainchoice/mail/signature/*http://mail.promotions.yahoo.com/newdomains/id/>
> Dapatkan nama yang selalu Anda inginkan di domain baru @ymail dan
> @rocketmail.
> Cepat sebelum diambil orang lain!
>
> 
>

Re: [obrolan-bandar] Re: CPO potential rebound??

[Tom DS]

*Iya Pak Tang...*
**
**
*Nah ini dia nih guru saya sudah turun gunung*
**
**
*T.o.m*


On 8/20/08, Welli Tang <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
>
>Jualan apa saja juga ada resiko, kalau gak laku nanti diomelin boss...
> ya nga pak Tom?
>
>
>
> 2008/8/19 Tom DS <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
>
>>*Ikutan comment ah..*
>> **
>> *Kalau kata pak Abraham Lembang, "jualan bakmie aja ada resiko... Resiko
>> loss of working capital kalau nggak laku.."*
>> **
>> **
>> *T.o.m*
>>
>>
>> On 8/18/08, t_bumi <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
>>>
>>>   --- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com,
>>> Hubert Nice <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
>>> wrote:
>>> >
>>> >
>>> >
>>> > Ja Benar
>>>
>>> > SIP : TBUMI
>>>
>>> Semua investasi baik di saham maupun bisnis (seperti pertanian,
>>>
>>> perkebunan, supermarket) tentu ada resiko rugi juga. Kelebihan
>>>
>>> investasi di saham yaitu investasi ini tak membutuhkan biaya
>>>
>>> operasi seperti biaya sewa tempat, gaji pegawai dll. Bila kondisi
>>>
>>> market tak baik, disimpan saja saham saham tsb.
>>>
>>> > --- On Sun, 8/17/08, t_bumi <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
>>> >
>>> > From: t_bumi <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
>>> > Subject: [obrolan-bandar] Re: CPO potential rebound??
>>> > To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com 
>>> > Date: Sunday, August 17, 2008, 12:59 PM
>>> >
>>> >
>>> >
>>> >
>>> >
>>> >
>>> > --- In obrolan-bandar@ yahoogroups. com, "Ocean Blue"
>>> 
>>> > wrote:
>>> > >
>>> > > Hahaha Pak tibum ketauan banyak pegang aali ya? Even pak tibum
>>> > > yg udah byk pengalaman aja bisa stress bin keki ama target bawah
>>> aali.
>>> >
>>> > > SIP : TBUMI
>>> >
>>> > Jika bukan kami yg menikmati harga AALI saat ini, biar saja anak
>>> >
>>> > cucu kami yang akan nikmati cuan di ANTM, BUMI, AALI, UNSP, INCO
>>> DLL.
>>> >
>>>
>>>
>>
>
>
> 
>

Re: [obrolan-bandar] Re: CPO potential rebound??

[Tom DS]

*Ikutan comment ah..*
**
*Kalau kata pak Abraham Lembang, "jualan bakmie aja ada resiko... Resiko
loss of working capital kalau nggak laku.."*
**
**
*T.o.m*


On 8/18/08, t_bumi <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
>
>   --- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com ,
> Hubert Nice <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
> wrote:
> >
> >
> >
> > Ja Benar
>
> > SIP : TBUMI
>
> Semua investasi baik di saham maupun bisnis (seperti pertanian,
>
> perkebunan, supermarket) tentu ada resiko rugi juga. Kelebihan
>
> investasi di saham yaitu investasi ini tak membutuhkan biaya
>
> operasi seperti biaya sewa tempat, gaji pegawai dll. Bila kondisi
>
> market tak baik, disimpan saja saham saham tsb.
>
> > --- On Sun, 8/17/08, t_bumi <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
> >
> > From: t_bumi <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
> > Subject: [obrolan-bandar] Re: CPO potential rebound??
> > To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com 
> > Date: Sunday, August 17, 2008, 12:59 PM
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> > --- In obrolan-bandar@ yahoogroups. com, "Ocean Blue"
> 
> > wrote:
> > >
> > > Hahaha Pak tibum ketauan banyak pegang aali ya? Even pak tibum
> > > yg udah byk pengalaman aja bisa stress bin keki ama target bawah
> aali.
> >
> > > SIP : TBUMI
> >
> > Jika bukan kami yg menikmati harga AALI saat ini, biar saja anak
> >
> > cucu kami yang akan nikmati cuan di ANTM, BUMI, AALI, UNSP, INCO
> DLL.
> >
>
> 
>

Re: [obrolan-bandar] Harga Coal di globalCoal Naik

[Tom DS]

*Tight supply caused by export restriction from Aussie & Indonesia (6
exporters who got caught in coal royalty case).*
**
**
*T.o.m*


On 8/16/08, smeagol1905 <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
>
>   Loh kok bisa yah padahal harga minyak masih turun, any comment please...
>
> 
>

Re: Bls: [obrolan-bandar] Re: To El, Greedy and Fear Balancing in the milis ...

[Tom DS]

*Yup*
**
*Saya dukung Elaine...*
*Let them grew up..!*
**
**
*T.o.m*


On 8/12/08, ksatria_timur_laut <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
>
>
> No One yang bisa dengan 100% akurat mem-predict market ...
> EL cm memberi predict ... yang pengen Collect silakan ... yang ngak
> action jg silakan ...
> Semua berpulang kepada keputusan PILIHAN masing-masing ...
> Kalo Cuan anda yang menikmati ... Kalo rugi jangan salahkan
> siapa-siapa kali ...
>
> Ya ga EL yang manis hehehe ?
>
> Regards,
>
> ksatria timur laut
>
> --- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com ,
> Hubert Pras <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
> >
> > Sut, sut.
> >
> > Sultan kok kata-katanye ganti jadi kamu pasti.
> > Bukannya Ente pasti ...
> >
> > Kemajuan nich
> >
> >
> >
> > - Pesan Asli 
> > Dari: sultan qatar <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
> > Kepada: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com
> > Terkirim: Selasa, 12 Agustus, 2008 09:27:13
> > Topik: Re: [obrolan-bandar] Re: To El, Greedy and Fear Balancing in
> the milis ...
> >
> >
> > OH Elaine.
> > Kamu pasti wanita yang cantik, cerdas, tahan mental, percaya diri.
> >
> >
> > 2008/8/12, Elaine Sui :
> > So what? tidak ada yang berani argue at that time.. at least I
> didn't say buy when IDX was 2850 fgod sake..you're not a true investor
> I see. True investors don't bother tops or bottoms. Al Fatih predicted
> 2400-2500 yet no one dares to complain now. Y'all are just a bunch
> hypocrites.
> >
> > And don't tell me about that Schubert guy.. ^_^ Oh well, some cmdty
> stocks are already in my target range, so happy hunting. 50% discounts
> as promised. The hell with JCI.
> >
> > Elaine
> >
> >
> > 2008/8/11 JsxTrader <[EMAIL PROTECTED] com>
> >
> > Inget banget..!!
> >
> > From:obrolan-bandar@ yahoogroups. com [mailto:obrolan-bandar@
> yahoogroups. com] On Behalf Of Rei
> > Sent: 11 Agustus 2008 21:24
> >
> > To: obrolan-bandar@ yahoogroups. com
> > Subject: Re: [obrolan-bandar] Re: To El, Greedy and Fear Balancing
> in the milis ...
> >
> > Ingat nggak waktu crash April kemarin ada yg bilang bhw level
> terendah tahun ini ada di bulan April, nyatanya? heheh no one knows
> exactly, we all can only speculate. Teman saya ada yg bilang dalam
> tebak2-an kalo benar, paling bilang "Apa gua bilang?", kalo salah,
> "Market is always right"
> >
> >
> > - Original Message 
> > From: Milis <[EMAIL PROTECTED] com>
> > To: obrolan-bandar@ yahoogroups. com
> > Sent: Monday, August 11, 2008 8:35:58 PM
> > Subject: [obrolan-bandar] Re: To El, Greedy and Fear Balancing in
> the milis ...
> > mbah.. kyk nya april/mei kemaren rasanya udah bottom.. tp ternyta
> > enggak juga ya .. msh lanjut skrg
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> __
> > Yahoo! sekarang memiliki alamat Email baru.
> > Dapatkan nama yang selalu Anda inginkan di domain baru @ymail dan
> @rocketmail.
> > Cepat sebelum diambil orang lain!
> > http://mail.promotions.yahoo.com/newdomains/id/
> >
>
> 
>

Re: [obrolan-bandar] Re: Indonesia DEFLASI 3.07%

[Tom DS]

*Saya pernah gabung dengan group Astra Pak...*
*Saya tau dari bagus-bagusnya sampai borok-boroknya group Astra.*
*Yang jelas mereka akan usahakan local sourcing, apalagi untuk otomotif...
Trust me on this lah..*
**
**
*T.o.m*


On 8/11/08, Hanif Mantiq <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
>
>   *pak tom datanya darimana, sepengatahuan saya komponen
> import asii besar sekali disebabkan karena local (home
> industri) penunjang industri otomotif masih belum
> berkembang, seperti yang pernah diutarakan pak dirut
> astra international pada analys meeting awal tahun
> 2008*
>
> --- In obrolan-bandar@ yahoogroups. com, "Tom DS"
> 
> wrote:
> >
> > *Sorry pak Jos..*
> > **
> > *ASII, UNTR & AUTO itu tidak banyak import bahan
> baku... Mereka
> sekitar >80%
> > look for raw material from local source. Toyota dan
> Astra Honda
> Motor >90%
> > local sourcing. UNTR >75% juga local sourcing. CPO
> mau import
> sourcing
> > apaan...?*
> > *Astra group itu paling memberdayakan local source
> pak..*
> > **
> > *Dan penguatan rupiah itu bukan deflasi, tapi
> merupakan apresiasi
> rupiah thd
> > mata uang lainnya, sementara mata uang lainnya
> terdepresiasi thd
> Rupiah.
> > Tahun ini emang setiap bulannya kita mengalami
> inflasi yg
> disebabkan oleh
> > sebagian besar imported-inflation, sebagian lagi
> memang karena
> demand-pull
> > inflation (esp daerah luar jawa, indikator makronya
> penjualan
> kendaraan
> > bermotor terutama sepeda motor di luar pulau Jawa
> yang meningkat
> drastis,
> > index belanja konsumen di luar pulau Jawa, etc). BI
> rate naik just
> to curbe
> > the demand-pull inflation. Untuk imported-inflation
> jurusnya nggak
> mempan
> > kalau cuma pakai money policy. Karena
> imported-inflation saat ini
> disebabkan
> > mainly from oil price, then we need comprehensive
> policy on our
> national
> > energy usage and sourcing.*
> > **
> > *Just my 2cents...*
> > **
> > **
> > *T.o.m*
>
> 
>

Re: [obrolan-bandar] Indonesia DEFLASI 3.07%

[Tom DS]

*Sorry pak Jos..*
**
*ASII, UNTR & AUTO itu tidak banyak import bahan baku... Mereka sekitar >80%
look for raw material from local source. Toyota dan Astra Honda Motor >90%
local sourcing. UNTR >75% juga local sourcing. CPO mau import sourcing
apaan...?*
*Astra group itu paling memberdayakan local source pak..*
**
*Dan penguatan rupiah itu bukan deflasi, tapi merupakan apresiasi rupiah thd
mata uang lainnya, sementara mata uang lainnya terdepresiasi thd Rupiah.
Tahun ini emang setiap bulannya kita mengalami inflasi yg disebabkan oleh
sebagian besar imported-inflation, sebagian lagi memang karena demand-pull
inflation (esp daerah luar jawa, indikator makronya penjualan kendaraan
bermotor terutama sepeda motor di luar pulau Jawa yang meningkat drastis,
index belanja konsumen di luar pulau Jawa, etc). BI rate naik just to curbe
the demand-pull inflation. Untuk imported-inflation jurusnya nggak mempan
kalau cuma pakai money policy. Karena imported-inflation saat ini disebabkan
mainly from oil price, then we need comprehensive policy on our national
energy usage and sourcing.*
**
*Just my 2cents...*
**
**
*T.o.m*


On 8/8/08, jos_martino <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
>
>Coba dilihat data berikut:
>
>  *Mata Uang*
>
> *Kurs Tengah BI*
>
> *IDR Strengthen*
>
>  *15-Jul-08*
>
> *8-Aug-08*
>
> AUD
>
> 8,874
>
> 8,225
>
> 7.32%
>
> BND
>
> 6,752
>
> 6,539
>
> 3.15%
>
> CAD
>
> 9,066
>
> 8,676
>
> 4.30%
>
> CHF
>
> 8,991
>
> 8,556
>
> 4.83%
>
> DKK
>
> 1,946
>
> 1,866
>
> 4.11%
>
> EUR
>
> 14,521
>
> 13,924
>
> 4.11%
>
> GBP
>
> 18,215
>
> 17,697
>
> 2.84%
>
> HKD
>
> 1,169
>
> 1,171
>
> -0.22%
>
> JPY
>
> 86.08
>
> 83.41
>
> 3.10%
>
> NOK
>
> 1,805
>
> 1,743
>
> 3.44%
>
> NZD
>
> 6,974
>
> 6,457
>
> 7.42%
>
> PGK
>
> 3,515
>
> 3,565
>
> -1.41%
>
> SEK
>
> 1,530
>
> 1,483
>
> 3.06%
>
> SGD
>
> 6,752
>
> 6,539
>
> 3.15%
>
> THB
>
> 272.06
>
> 271.57
>
> 0.18%
>
> USD
>
> 9,119
>
> 9,145
>
> -0.29%
>
> *AVERAGE*
>
> *3.07%*
>
> Dari data diatas terlihat keperkasaan Rp. terhadap mata uang negara lain.
> Rp. (IDR) relatif stabil thd USD tetapi MENGUAT signifikan thd mata uang
> lain. Dengan kata lain INDONESIA mengalami DEFLASI sebesar rata-rata 3.07%
> hanya dalam 3 minggu (15 Juli-8 Agt). Koq dibilang inflasi July lebih tinggi
> dari Juni? Sungguh terburu-buru BI menaikkan rate.
>
> Apa impactnya kalo DEFLASI:
>
> 1. Harga barang di luar negeri akan LEBIH MURAH. Impor akan membanjiri
> Indonesia. Sebaliknya Ekspor akan TERTAHAN.
>
> 2. Perusahaan yang mengandalkan Ekspor akan TERHAMBAT. Sebaliknya yang
> banyak Impornya akan DIUNTUNGKAN (ASII?, UNTR?, AUTO?).
>
> 3. Sektor yang berhubungan DEKAT dengan DUIT akan diuntungkan. BANK?
> PROPERTY? CONSUMER? INFRA?
>
> Be wiser, manhe..he..he LOL
>
> rgs,
>
> JM
>
>
>
> 
>

Re: [obrolan-bandar] Re: SASARAN TEMBAK CPO

[Tom DS]

*Hati-hati pak Halim & Pak Jos...*
**
*Buat analisa di OB suka banyak yang complaint..*
*Dari sekitar 14 analisa saya di OB ada 2 yang meleset, itupun karena minggu
lalu market bearish & kurang bersahabat, dihajar habis-habisan.*
**
**
*Cheers*
*T.o.m*


On 8/10/08, Halim Mintareja <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
>
>Sedikit pendapat.
>
> Buat long term investor saham CPO sudah tidak menarik lagi. Maybe until
> next year.
>
> Long term investor jarang sekali mencari posisi bottom, long term investor
> cuman ingin posisi steady up dengan trend yang bagus. Saya perkirakan long
> term investor baru akan mencoba melirik saham CPO tahun depan. Tentunya
> dengan syarat harga CPO harus menemukan base terlebih dahulu. Sekedar
> perbandingan aja. ASII pada waktu krismon pernah jatuh sampai 250. Apakah
> long term investor masih di 250 ?? Setahu saya long term investor baru mulai
> masuk di 600-1000.
>
> Kembali ke AALI. Adakah yang bisa meramal harga bottom CPO. Saya lihat di
> harga sekarang AALI 18500 EPS 2019 dengan PE 9.12 murah ??
>
> Nope..highly expensive..mengingat EPS 2000-an dicapai dengan average CPO
> 3300-3500 dengan NPM 34% plus TA CPO bullish. Bayangkan aja apa yang terjadi
> dengan AALI kalau selanjutnya av CPO dibawah 3000 dengan CPO TA bearish ??.
> Sekilas ORI aja masih lebih murah dibandingkan AALI.
>
> Anyway..saya setuju juga jangan jual AALI dihari senin warna merah. Simple
> ajasudah OVERSOLD.
> Tunggu reversal aja baru jualan.
>
> Kalau niat invest buat anak cucu...forget ituButuh long konsolidation.
> Even there is a miracle which can push CPO back above 3000 level... AALI
> still need at least 2 months of cosolidation.
>
> Anyway... Itu cuman analisa FA AALI aja (jangan dicomplain kalau ada TA CPO
> ya...karena buat analisa FA saham komoditas musti belajar TA komoditasnya
> juga).. gak tahu lagi kalau ada bandar butuh untuk jack up AALI demi
> kepentingan saham lain. (pernah kejadian di bulan juni 2008 :D)
>
>
> 2008/8/10 jsx_consultant <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
>
>> --- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, "Insan Prakoso"
>> <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
>> >
>> > the CPO price is developing a "LONG TERM REVERSAL PATTERN"... that
>> is , from
>> > Bullish to Bearish .. currently testing support at RM 2,900.. it's
>> breaking
>> > already, isn't it ?
>> >
>>
>>
>> - Analisa harga AALI tidak bisa dilepaskan dari gerakan harga
>>  LSIP, karena selama ini kedua saham ini jalan beriringan.
>> - LSIP saat ini ada dilevel 6500 yaitu harga LSIP thn 2007
>>  sebelum OIL BOOM. Oil saat ini 115 masih diatas 100 bukan ?.
>>  http://www.invest2000.net/plllsip.png
>>  Harga minyak pada 2007 itu ada dilevel 65.
>>  Jadi harga LSIP 6500 sudah OVERSHOOT KEMURAHAN BUKAN ? in
>>  comparison to oil price.
>> - Kalo AALI mau diturunin lagi maka otomatis LSIP akan
>>  jatuh dibawah harga 2007 saat minyak ada dilvel 65 !!!
>> - Secara grafis, AALI memang ada dilevel CRITICAL yaitu
>>  mau DIBABLASIN atau mau REBOUND...
>>  http://www.invest2000.net/pllaali.png
>>
>> Tapi buat long investor, harga DISCOUNT pada hari Senin
>> is A BEST BUY...
>>
>> Jadi buat yang mau jual, MONGGO pasar di OFFER...
>>
>> Coba yang mau jual NGACUNG...
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>> 
>>
>> + +
>> + + + + +
>> Mohon saat meREPLY posting, text dari posting lama dihapus
>> kecuali diperlukan agar CONTEXTnya jelas.
>> + + + + +
>>
>> + +Yahoo! Groups Links
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>
>
>
> 
>

Re: [obrolan-bandar] Re: SIKAT FPNI HARI INI.................!!! --OPEN GAP-UP

[Tom DS]

*Hehe ada pak t_bumi, jadi malu sama senior OB disini...*
**
*Pakai sapu lidi juga boleh pak.. =)*
**
**
*T.o.m*


On 8/5/08, t_bumi <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
>
>   --- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com ,
> "Tom DS" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
> wrote:
> >
> > SIP : TBUMI
>
> Pakai sikat gigi atau sikat wc utk FPNI ?
>
> 
>

Re: [obrolan-bandar] Re: Stock Picking 4 Agustus 2008

[Tom DS]

*Yup you are correct Pak Jos Martino...*
**
*The only variable for AUTO is OIL PRICE...*
*If oil price goes down AUTO will be a spectacular show.. But my analyst
forecasting oil price will down in around beginning of Q2 2009. So end of
year 2008 oil price still remain strong (rebound start in beginning Q4 2008
since the oil hedger, which are most likely the refiners, will fullfil their
inventory to anticipate the winter).*
**
*Well let's whether oil price will go to north or south.. =)*
**
**
*T.o.m*


On 8/4/08, jos_martino <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
>
>   Malah sebaliknya, Income Projection 2H08 AUTO akan SPEKTAKULER
> karena karena kecenderungan harga energy akan TURUN dan Raw Material
> akan TURUN juga seiring TURUNNYA harga MINYAK BUMI.
>
> Projection yang dibuat para analis berdasarkan "history" akselerasi
> harga minyak bumi di 2007 dan 1H08. Kenyataan saat ini harga MINYAK
> BUMI De-akselerasi alias "cenderung" TURUN
>
> rgs,
> JM
>
> --- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com ,
> "Tom DS" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
> wrote:
> >
> > *Income projection AUTO end of year 2008 kurang bagus... They
> experiencing
> > squeezed margins..*
> > **
> > *High oil price caused COGS, esp energy cost, increased. They
> heavy needed
> > the energy in melting & dies casting in 750-800 C. Almost the same
> with
> > cement, the difference is in cement the energy cost is higher than
> AUTO &
> > ASII since cement needs 2000 C.*
> > **
> > *Reccomendation : Sell AUTO*
> > *Disclaimer On..*
> > **
> > **
> > *T.o.m*
> >
> >
> > On 8/4/08, hendrik_lwww <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
> > >
> > > Sepertinya sektor infrastruktur mulai bangkit. Laba JSMR yang
> mingkat
> > > 400% dan TRUB yangjuga miengkat cukup tajam memberi sentimen
> positif
> > > pada perdagangan JSMR beberapa haari terakhir. Dan TRUB yang
> sepertinya
> > > akan mulai main.
> > >
> > > Sepertinya AUTO akan menjad Saham Bintang tahun ini.
> Deperkirakan laba
> > > AUTO akan naik cukup tajam. Mengingat penjualan kendaraan yang
> tinggi
> > > membuat kebutuhan akan spare part juga tinggi.
> > >
> > > UNtuk sementara sebaiknya kita tinggalkan banking dan komodity.
> Karena
> > > masih rentan terhadap isu global. Sehingga kepastian arahnya
> sangat
> > > sulit untuk diperkirakan.
> > >
> > > Stock Picking :
> > > AUTO, TRUB, JSMR, INDF,ANTM
> > >
> > > Tambahan : Gorengan not Gorengan : ALMI
> > >
> > >
> > >
> >
>
> 
>

Re: [obrolan-bandar] Re: SIKAT FPNI HARI INI.................!!! --OPEN GAP-UP

[Tom DS]

*Biarin aja merah dulu sementara, itu cuma ulah trader konyol aja.*
*Liat aja volumenya kecil banget..*
*Ada yang mau mancing turun tapi nggak berhasil Hahaha... *
**
*Kayanya sih UBS yang lagi minat juga sama FPNI mau nurunin tapi nggak
berhasil... Akhirnya dia doang yang sell at loss =D*
**
*Ayo kuat-kuatan deh..*
**
**
*T.o.m*


On 8/4/08, arianto widodo <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
>
>ayo pak tom nahkodain lg tuh FPNI nya..hr ini kok mlh merah ya.
>
>
> - Original Message 
> From: Tom DS <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
> To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com
> Sent: Monday, August 4, 2008 12:33:50 AM
> Subject: Re: [obrolan-bandar] Re: SIKAT FPNI HARI INI.!!!
> --OPEN GAP-UP
>
>  *PER projected at 10.7-11.1 x EPS.*
> **
> *You can even calculate based on Indonesian plastic consumption growth
> projection which is still very low compared to China... even compared to
> Malaysia or Thailand..*
> **
> **
> *T.o.m*
>
>
> On 8/2/08, Ferry Wachjudi >
> wrote:
>>
>>   Tanggung amat gak bisa diatas 500, supaya bisa main di fraksi
>> 10. :-)
>> Kalau 490, PERnya berapa nich?
>>
>> Tom DS wrote:
>>
>>  *Still Rp490/share end of year 2008... Using moderate assumption & my
>> best estimate..*
>> **
>> **
>> *T.o.m*
>>
>>
>> On 8/1/08, vividtrader >
>> wrote:
>>>
>>>   Emang targetnya berapa Uncle Tom  saya tadi gak jad beli
>>>
>>>>--
>>>>>>
>>>>>> <http://www.vividtrader.blogspot.com/>
>>>>>>
>>>>> post)
>> <http://groups.yahoo.com/group/obrolan-bandar/post;_ylc=X3oDMTJxamFocjg3BF9TAzk3MzU5NzE0BGdycElkAzE2NTIzNTUEZ3Jwc3BJZAMxNzA1MDAxNzc5BG1zZ0lkAzk4MzExBHNlYwNmdHIEc2xrA3JwbHkEc3RpbWUDMTIxNzU5OTI3OA--?act=reply&messageNum=98311>|
>> Start a new topic
>> <http://groups.yahoo.com/group/obrolan-bandar/post;_ylc=X3oDMTJlaDgzbHM1BF9TAzk3MzU5NzE0BGdycElkAzE2NTIzNTUEZ3Jwc3BJZAMxNzA1MDAxNzc5BHNlYwNmdHIEc2xrA250cGMEc3RpbWUDMTIxNzU5OTI3OA-->
>>  .
>>
>>
>>
>
> 
>

Re: [obrolan-bandar] Re: SIKAT FPNI HARI INI.................!!!

[Tom DS]

*Sekarang Managing Director yang baru namanya Warren Wilder.*
**
**
*T.o.m*


On 8/4/08, Bernie <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
>
>
> Coba liat rti,komisaris utamanya Pak Tom tuh..
> On 8/4/08, Kabunushi Soukai <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
>>
>>   Seharusnya bersyukur dong
>>
>> Saat IHSG merah membara, FPNI tidur.
>> Yang gawat, klo pada IJO tapi masih tidur pula.
>>
>>
>>
>> - Original Message -
>> *From:* arianto widodo <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
>> *To:* obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com
>> *Sent:* Monday, August 04, 2008 5:48 PM
>> *Subject:* Re: [obrolan-bandar] Re: SIKAT FPNI HARI
>> INI.!!!
>>
>>
>>  FPNI nya bobok nih.^^
>>
>>
>> - Original Message 
>> From: Gerry Yun <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
>> To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com
>> Sent: Monday, August 4, 2008 11:38:52 AM
>> Subject: Re: [obrolan-bandar] Re: SIKAT FPNI HARI INI..!!!
>> --OPEN GAP-UP
>>
>> .
>>
>>
> 
>

Re: [obrolan-bandar] Stock Picking 4 Agustus 2008

[Tom DS]

*Income projection AUTO end of year 2008 kurang bagus... They experiencing
squeezed margins..*
**
*High oil price caused COGS, esp energy cost, increased. They heavy needed
the energy in melting & dies casting in 750-800 C. Almost the same with
cement, the difference is in cement the energy cost is higher than AUTO &
ASII since cement needs 2000 C.*
**
*Reccomendation : Sell AUTO*
*Disclaimer On..*
**
**
*T.o.m*


On 8/4/08, hendrik_lwww <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
>
>   Sepertinya sektor infrastruktur mulai bangkit. Laba JSMR yang mingkat
> 400% dan TRUB yangjuga miengkat cukup tajam memberi sentimen positif
> pada perdagangan JSMR beberapa haari terakhir. Dan TRUB yang sepertinya
> akan mulai main.
>
> Sepertinya AUTO akan menjad Saham Bintang tahun ini. Deperkirakan laba
> AUTO akan naik cukup tajam. Mengingat penjualan kendaraan yang tinggi
> membuat kebutuhan akan spare part juga tinggi.
>
> UNtuk sementara sebaiknya kita tinggalkan banking dan komodity. Karena
> masih rentan terhadap isu global. Sehingga kepastian arahnya sangat
> sulit untuk diperkirakan.
>
> Stock Picking :
> AUTO, TRUB, JSMR, INDF,ANTM
>
> Tambahan : Gorengan not Gorengan : ALMI
>
> 
>

Re: [obrolan-bandar] Kandidat HOT BF untuk Mbah.

[Tom DS]

*AUTO ---> better sell*
*JPFA ---> Neutral.. speculative buy*
**
**
*T.o.m*


On 8/4/08, orion1000ad <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
>
>   Mbah, setelah sukses menyutradarai BF LTLS yang heboh besar gimana
> kalau Mbah juga menyutradarai film berikut:
>
> - AUTO
> - JPFA
> - BBKP
> - EPMT
>
> Keempatnya mempunyai modal mantap dengan body yahud (Per & Bv murah),
> untuk jalan ceritanya biar Mbah yang tentuin. Kalo bisa ntar piala
> Oscar bisa mejeng dah.
>
> 
>

Re: [obrolan-bandar] Re: SIKAT FPNI HARI INI.................!!! --OPEN GAP-UP

[Tom DS]

*PER projected at 10.7-11.1 x EPS.*
**
*You can even calculate based on Indonesian plastic consumption growth
projection which is still very low compared to China... even compared to
Malaysia or Thailand..*
**
**
*T.o.m*


On 8/2/08, Ferry Wachjudi <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
>
>   Tanggung amatgak bisa diatas 500, supaya bisa main di fraksi 10.:-)
> Kalau 490, PERnya berapa nich?
>
> Tom DS wrote:
>
>  *Still Rp490/share end of year 2008... Using moderate assumption & my
> best estimate..*
> **
> **
> *T.o.m*
>
>
> On 8/1/08, vividtrader <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
>>
>>   Emang targetnya berapa Uncle Tom  saya tadi gak jad beli
>>
>>>--
>>>>>
>>>>> <http://www.vividtrader.blogspot.com/>
>>>>>
>>>> post)
> <http://groups.yahoo.com/group/obrolan-bandar/post;_ylc=X3oDMTJxamFocjg3BF9TAzk3MzU5NzE0BGdycElkAzE2NTIzNTUEZ3Jwc3BJZAMxNzA1MDAxNzc5BG1zZ0lkAzk4MzExBHNlYwNmdHIEc2xrA3JwbHkEc3RpbWUDMTIxNzU5OTI3OA--?act=reply&messageNum=98311>|
> Start a new topic
> <http://groups.yahoo.com/group/obrolan-bandar/post;_ylc=X3oDMTJlaDgzbHM1BF9TAzk3MzU5NzE0BGdycElkAzE2NTIzNTUEZ3Jwc3BJZAMxNzA1MDAxNzc5BHNlYwNmdHIEc2xrA250cGMEc3RpbWUDMTIxNzU5OTI3OA-->
>  .
>
>
> 
>

Re: [obrolan-bandar] Re: SIKAT FPNI HARI INI- PINDAH DULU KE IATA si Cabe Rawit

[Tom DS]

*Yup...*
**
*Enterprise value FPNI naik mendadak pasca reverse takeover last year..*
*Soal benturan kepentingan, coba dibaca yang lebih lengkap & jeli di
prospektus serta semua detail financial statementsnya.*
**
*Nggak bisa langsung disamakan dengan induknya di Malaysia... Emang United
Tractors PER nya harus sama dengan Astra International??*
*Different business my friend... Memang masih mirip-mirip kategori
industrinya, tapi very different business fundamental.*
**
**
*T.o.m*


On 8/1/08, Herman Tobing <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
>
>   Kalau dilihat chartnya seperti gergaji tapi naik ,hari ini waktunya
> turun, senin mungkin naik lagi .
>
> Salam ,
>
> Herman
> 
>

Re: [obrolan-bandar] Re: SIKAT FPNI HARI INI.................!!! --OPEN GAP-UP

[Tom DS]

*Still Rp490/share end of year 2008... Using moderate assumption & my best
estimate..*
**
**
*T.o.m*


On 8/1/08, vividtrader <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
>
>   Emang targetnya berapa Uncle Tom  saya tadi gak jad beli
>
> Pada tanggal 01/08/08, Tom DS <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> menulis:
>>
>>*Masih bisa sikat, mumpung lagi discount ke 300 karena overall market
>> drop amid a bit higher than expected on inflation news reading..*
>> **
>> *Target price end of year 2008 still maintained.*
>> **
>> **
>> *T.o.m*
>>
>>
>>  On 8/1/08, arianto widodo <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
>>>
>>>ayo pak tom naekin lg FPNI nyatd awalnya sampe 320 loh.ini mlh
>>> turun sampe 305.bravo pak tom..
>>>
>>>
>>> - Original Message 
>>> From: Tom DS <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
>>> To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com
>>> Sent: Friday, August 1, 2008 2:12:02 PM
>>> Subject: Re: [obrolan-bandar] Re: SIKAT FPNI HARI INI.!!!
>>> --OPEN GAP-UP
>>>
>>>   *No effect...*
>>> **
>>> **
>>> *T.o.m*
>>>
>>>
>>>  On 8/1/08, vividtrader >
>>> wrote:
>>>
>>>>Semesta tidak mendukung ya? tapi proyek jalan terus gak?
>>>>
>>>> Pada 1 Agustus 2008 07:36, Tom DS >>> PROTECTED]>
>>>> > menulis:
>>>>
>>>>>*Hari ini kalau nggak ada trader konyol jadi open gap-up ijo
>>>>> mentereng... .*
>>>>> **
>>>>> **
>>>>> *T..o.m*
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>> On 7/31/08, [EMAIL PROTECTED] com <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> <[EMAIL PROTECTED]
>>>>> com <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>> wrote:
>>>>>>
>>>>>>   Kalo ga jadi gimana nasib yg sudah masuk tadi sore pak Tom, ane
>>>>>> sudah gadaiin cincin kawin nih buat ngejar fpni besok
>>>>>>
>>>>>>
>>>>>> Rgds
>>>>>>
>>>>>>
>>>>>> Sent from my BlackBerry(R) wireless device from XL GPRS/EDGE/3G network
>>>>>>
>>>>>> ----------
>>>>>> *From*: "Tom DS" >
>>>>>> *Date*: Thu, 31 Jul 2008 21:07:59 +0700
>>>>>> *To*: 
>>>>>> >
>>>>>> *Subject*: Re: [obrolan-bandar] Re: SIKAT FPNI HARI INI..
>>>>>> ! !!
>>>>>>
>>>>>>  *Hhmmm. tergantung time horizon investasinya & expected
>>>>>> returnnya. *
>>>>>> *Besok kalau jadi akan open gap-up...*
>>>>>> **
>>>>>> **
>>>>>> *T.o.m*
>>>>>>
>>>>>>
>>>>>> On 7/31/08, Fong Novi TA <[EMAIL PROTECTED] co.uk<[EMAIL PROTECTED]>>
>>>>>> wrote:
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>   Wah Pak Tom, begitu posting langsung terbang nech :)
>>>>>>> Masih boleh ikutan ga nich keretanya??
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> Thanks
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> N*vI
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> --- In obrolan-bandar@ yahoogroups. 
>>>>>>> com,
>>>>>>> "Tom DS"  wrote:
>>>>>>> >
>>>>>>> > *SIKATT FPNI HARI INI.. ! ! !***
>>>>>>> > *BESOK MAU TERBANG. *
>>>>>>> > **
>>>>>>> > **
>>>>>>> > *T.o.m*
>>>>>>> >
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> --
>>>> http://www.vividtra der.blogspot. com<http://www.vividtrader.blogspot.com/>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>
>>>
>>
>
>
> --
> http://www.vividtrader.blogspot.com
>
> 
>

Re: [obrolan-bandar] Re: SIKAT FPNI HARI INI.................!!! --OPEN GAP-UP

[Tom DS]

*Masih bisa sikat, mumpung lagi discount ke 300 karena overall market drop
amid a bit higher than expected on inflation news reading..*
**
*Target price end of year 2008 still maintained.*
**
**
*T.o.m*


On 8/1/08, arianto widodo <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
>
>ayo pak tom naekin lg FPNI nyatd awalnya sampe 320 loh.ini mlh
> turun sampe 305.bravo pak tom..
>
>
> - Original Message 
> From: Tom DS <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
> To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com
> Sent: Friday, August 1, 2008 2:12:02 PM
> Subject: Re: [obrolan-bandar] Re: SIKAT FPNI HARI INI.!!!
> --OPEN GAP-UP
>
>   *No effect...*
> **
> **
> *T.o.m*
>
>
>  On 8/1/08, vividtrader >
> wrote:
>
>>Semesta tidak mendukung ya? tapi proyek jalan terus gak?
>>
>> Pada 1 Agustus 2008 07:36, Tom DS 
>> > menulis:
>>
>>>*Hari ini kalau nggak ada trader konyol jadi open gap-up ijo
>>> mentereng... .*
>>> **
>>> **
>>> *T..o.m*
>>>
>>>
>>> On 7/31/08, [EMAIL PROTECTED] com <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> <[EMAIL PROTECTED]
>>> com <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>> wrote:
>>>>
>>>>   Kalo ga jadi gimana nasib yg sudah masuk tadi sore pak Tom, ane sudah
>>>> gadaiin cincin kawin nih buat ngejar fpni besok
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> Rgds
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> Sent from my BlackBerry(R) wireless device from XL GPRS/EDGE/3G network
>>>>
>>>> --
>>>> *From*: "Tom DS" >
>>>> *Date*: Thu, 31 Jul 2008 21:07:59 +0700
>>>> *To*: 
>>>> >
>>>> *Subject*: Re: [obrolan-bandar] Re: SIKAT FPNI HARI INI..
>>>> ! !!
>>>>
>>>>  *Hhmmm..... tergantung time horizon investasinya & expected returnnya.
>>>> *
>>>> *Besok kalau jadi akan open gap-up...*
>>>> **
>>>> **
>>>> *T.o.m*
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> On 7/31/08, Fong Novi TA <[EMAIL PROTECTED] co.uk<[EMAIL PROTECTED]>>
>>>> wrote:
>>>>>
>>>>>   Wah Pak Tom, begitu posting langsung terbang nech :)
>>>>> Masih boleh ikutan ga nich keretanya??
>>>>>
>>>>> Thanks
>>>>>
>>>>> N*vI
>>>>>
>>>>> --- In obrolan-bandar@ yahoogroups. com,
>>>>> "Tom DS"  wrote:
>>>>> >
>>>>> > *SIKATT FPNI HARI INI.. ! ! !***
>>>>> > *BESOK MAU TERBANG. *
>>>>> > **
>>>>> > **
>>>>> > *T.o.m*
>>>>> >
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>
>>>
>>>
>>
>>
>>
>> --
>> http://www.vividtra der.blogspot. com<http://www.vividtrader.blogspot.com/>
>>
>>
>>
>
> 
>

Re: [obrolan-bandar] Re: SIKAT FPNI HARI INI.................!!! --OPEN GAP-UP

[Tom DS]

*No effect...*
**
**
*T.o.m*


On 8/1/08, vividtrader <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
>
>Semesta tidak mendukung ya? tapi proyek jalan terus gak?
>
> Pada 1 Agustus 2008 07:36, Tom DS <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> menulis:
>
>>*Hari ini kalau nggak ada trader konyol jadi open gap-up ijo
>> mentereng*
>> **
>> **
>> *T.o.m*
>>
>>
>> On 7/31/08, [EMAIL PROTECTED] <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
>>>
>>>   Kalo ga jadi gimana nasib yg sudah masuk tadi sore pak Tom, ane sudah
>>> gadaiin cincin kawin nih buat ngejar fpni besok
>>>
>>>
>>> Rgds
>>>
>>>
>>> Sent from my BlackBerry(R) wireless device from XL GPRS/EDGE/3G network
>>>
>>> --
>>> *From*: "Tom DS" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
>>> *Date*: Thu, 31 Jul 2008 21:07:59 +0700
>>> *To*: 
>>> *Subject*: Re: [obrolan-bandar] Re: SIKAT FPNI HARI
>>> INI.!!!
>>>
>>>  *Hhmmm. tergantung time horizon investasinya & expected returnnya.
>>> *
>>> *Besok kalau jadi akan open gap-up...*
>>> **
>>> **
>>> *T.o.m*
>>>
>>>
>>> On 7/31/08, Fong Novi TA <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
>>>>
>>>>   Wah Pak Tom, begitu posting langsung terbang nech :)
>>>> Masih boleh ikutan ga nich keretanya??
>>>>
>>>> Thanks
>>>>
>>>> N*vI
>>>>
>>>> --- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com,
>>>> "Tom DS" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
>>>> >
>>>> > *SIKATT FPNI HARI INI.!!!***
>>>> > *BESOK MAU TERBANG.*
>>>> > **
>>>> > **
>>>> > *T.o.m*
>>>> >
>>>>
>>>>
>>>
>>
>>
>
>
>
> --
> http://www.vividtrader.blogspot.com
>
>
> 
>

Re: [obrolan-bandar] Re: SIKAT FPNI HARI INI.................!!! --OPEN GAP-UP

[Tom DS]

*Hari ini kalau nggak ada trader konyol jadi open gap-up ijo mentereng*
**
**
*T.o.m*


On 7/31/08, [EMAIL PROTECTED] <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
>
>   Kalo ga jadi gimana nasib yg sudah masuk tadi sore pak Tom, ane sudah
> gadaiin cincin kawin nih buat ngejar fpni besok
>
>
> Rgds
>
>
> Sent from my BlackBerry(R) wireless device from XL GPRS/EDGE/3G network
>
> ----------
> *From*: "Tom DS" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
> *Date*: Thu, 31 Jul 2008 21:07:59 +0700
> *To*: 
> *Subject*: Re: [obrolan-bandar] Re: SIKAT FPNI HARI
> INI.!!!
>
>  *Hhmmm. tergantung time horizon investasinya & expected returnnya. *
> *Besok kalau jadi akan open gap-up...*
> **
> **
> *T.o.m*
>
>
> On 7/31/08, Fong Novi TA <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
>>
>>   Wah Pak Tom, begitu posting langsung terbang nech :)
>> Masih boleh ikutan ga nich keretanya??
>>
>> Thanks
>>
>> N*vI
>>
>> --- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com ,
>> "Tom DS" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
>> >
>> > *SIKATT FPNI HARI INI.!!!***
>> > *BESOK MAU TERBANG.*
>> > **
>> > **
>> > *T.o.m*
>> >
>>
>>
>  
>

Re: [obrolan-bandar] Re: So happy happy happy

[Tom DS]

*Yup benar El...*
**
*Saya pernah merasakan dimaki juga lho...*
*Padahal kalau waktu itu dia bersabar sedikit saja sekarang seharusnya sudah
ketawa ketiwi... Apalagi setahun lagi.. bisa jadi OKB seperti El... =)*
**
**
*T.o.m*


On 7/22/08, Elaine Sui <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
>
>*I KNOW LOLOLOL hendrik jangan panasi member OB nanti jadi provocator.
> Banyak anak kecil di OB. Mereka beli terus turun harga pasti di maki... ha
> ha ha. Kasih recommendation cukup satu kali saja. Kalau setiap hari nanti
> orang bosan. Tidak boleh juga saying "I told you" seperti noob.
>
> Elaine**
> *
> 2008/7/22 hendrik_lwww <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>:
>
>> --- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, "Elaine Sui"
>> <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
>> >
>>
>> > *Kalau takut banyak saham lain. :) Property is not just Bakrieland.
>> >
>> > Elaine**
>> > *
>> CTRA Tuh mantap pas di 500
>>
>>
>> 
>>
>> + +
>> + + + + +
>> Mohon saat meREPLY posting, text dari posting lama dihapus
>> kecuali diperlukan agar CONTEXTnya jelas.
>> + + + + +
>> + +Yahoo! Groups Links
>>
>>
>>
>>
>
>
> 
>

Re: [obrolan-bandar] Re: SIKAT FPNI HARI INI.................!!!

[Tom DS]

*Hhmmm. tergantung time horizon investasinya & expected returnnya. *
*Besok kalau jadi akan open gap-up...*
**
**
*T.o.m*


On 7/31/08, Fong Novi TA <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
>
>   Wah Pak Tom, begitu posting langsung terbang nech :)
> Masih boleh ikutan ga nich keretanya??
>
> Thanks
>
> N*vI
>
> --- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com ,
> "Tom DS" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
> >
> > *SIKATT FPNI HARI INI.!!!***
> > *BESOK MAU TERBANG.*
> > **
> > **
> > *T.o.m*
> >
>
> 
>

Re: [saham] Re: [obrolan-bandar] SIKAT FPNI HARI INI.................!!!

[Tom DS]

*Wah. *
*Cepat juga nih infonya... *
**
**
*T.o.m*


On 7/31/08, [EMAIL PROTECTED] <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
wrote:
>
>
>
>
> kebetulan saya udah baca lap keu n bikin analisa sederhana
>
>
>
>   *Jeremia Jefferson*
>
>
> PT ORIX Indonesia Finance
> Wisma Kyoei Prince 24th Floor
> Jl. Jend. Sudirman Kav. 3-4, Jakarta 10220
> Telp.   +62 572 0007 ext. 4222
> Hp. +62 817 607 7006
> Fax.+62 572 3071
> E-mail [EMAIL PROTECTED]
> http www.orix.co.id
> Information provided in this email, including any attachments, are intended
> for the addressee named and deemed confidential property of ORIX Indonesia
> Finance. Any use of information provided herein, including but not limited
> to the registered ORIX name and logo are prohibited without the written
> permission of PT ORIX Indonesia Finance. If you are not the intended
> recipient, any use, printing, copying or distribution of this e-mail or of
> any attachments to it is strictly prohibited. If you received this e-mail in
> error, please advise the sender immediately and delete the e-mail and any
> attachments from your system. Thank you.
>
>
>
>
>
>   *"Tom DS" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>*
> Sent by: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
>
> 07/31/2008 04:22 PM   Please respond to
> [EMAIL PROTECTED]
>
>To
> obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, [EMAIL PROTECTED],
> [EMAIL PROTECTED], [EMAIL PROTECTED]  cc
>   Subject
> [saham] Re: [obrolan-bandar] SIKAT FPNI HARI INI.!!!
>
>
>
>
>
> *Bukan soal gorengan*
>
> *Kalo wartawan kontan ato bisnis indonesia jeli pasti diulas.*
> *Tunggu aja beritanya besok di koran... pokoknya yang memuat ttg laporan
> keuangan Q2 deh =)*
>
> *For swing traders, enjoy for short term only...*
> *For long-term investor enjoy more...*
>
> *Happy cuan.!*
>
>
> *T.o.m*
>
>
> On 7/31/08, *Febry Hariyannugraha* <[EMAIL PROTECTED]<[EMAIL PROTECTED]>>
> wrote:
>
> Biasa hari Jum'at ...
> Gorengan time .. hehehehe ...
> Tembus 310 ... gua masuk deh ...
> Thanks Pak Tom 
>
>
>   
>
<>

Re: [obrolan-bandar] SIKAT FPNI HARI INI.................!!!

[Tom DS]

*Bukan soal gorengan*
*Kalo wartawan kontan ato bisnis indonesia jeli pasti diulas.*
*Tunggu aja beritanya besok di koran... pokoknya yang memuat ttg laporan
keuangan Q2 deh =)*
**
*For swing traders, enjoy for short term only...*
*For long-term investor enjoy more...*
**
*Happy cuan.!*
**
**
*T.o.m*


On 7/31/08, Febry Hariyannugraha <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
>
>Biasa hari Jum'at ...
> Gorengan time .. hehehehe ...
> Tembus 310 ... gua masuk deh ...
> Thanks Pak Tom 
>
>
> 
>

[obrolan-bandar] SIKAT FPNI HARI INI.................!!!

[Tom DS]

*SIKATT FPNI HARI INI.!!!***
*BESOK MAU TERBANG.*
**
**
*T.o.m*

Re: [obrolan-bandar] Kuburan ANTM + INCO

[Tom DS]

*Kalau mau yang free tapi terbatas nggak bisa liat berita detail, ada di **
www.palmoil.com* 
**
**
*T.o.m*


On 7/23/08, abdulrahim abdulrahim <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
>
>   On Wed, Jul 23, 2008 at 5:05 PM, Pemain Mini <[EMAIL 
> PROTECTED]>
> wrote:
> > NI 3M 19790 19990
> > -610
>
> CPO gimana Om
> Terus liatnya di mana
> 
>

Re: [obrolan-bandar] Nggak ada hutang FPNI lagi yaaa.... Yang mau bersabar will gain much more...

[Tom DS]

*Saya nggak bilang apa-apa lho soal UNSP...*
**
*UNSP agak sulit dikendalikan karena banyak pemain disana, juga retailer
banyak sekali... Paling cuma bisa pancing-pancing satu sesi...*
**
**
*T.o.m*


On 7/23/08, indriyanta s. <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
>
>  Hutang FPNI udah lunas, Mas Tom.
>
> Sekarang tinggal nunggu Mas Tom memainkan rombongan Kethek Ogleng
> (UNSP)
>
> Makasih
>
>
>
> Indriyanta
>
>
>
> --- On *Wed, 7/23/08, Tom DS <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>* wrote:
>
> From: Tom DS <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
> Subject: Re: [obrolan-bandar] Nggak ada hutang FPNI lagi yaaa Yang mau
> bersabar will gain much more...
> To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, [EMAIL PROTECTED],
> [EMAIL PROTECTED], [EMAIL PROTECTED]
> Date: Wednesday, July 23, 2008, 9:01 AM
>
>  *Nggak lah, FPNI masih jadi salah satu portfolio saya...*
> *Ada dua big player lagi yang mulai masuk ke FPNI. Siap-siap kalau ada
> gejolak yang nggak lazim don't panic, analyze carefully..*
> **
> *Yupp.. we've got companies =)*
> **
>  *Kalau Q2 2008 keluar, jangan langsung di compare dengan Q1 2008, tapi
> compare dengan periode yang sama 2007,karena trend Q1 agak berbeda dengan
> Q2.*
> **
> *Happy cuan buat yang udah realisasikan profit... Kalau mau lebih sabar
> padahal bisa gain lebih banyak lho.. =)*
>
> **
> *T.o.m*
>
>
> On 7/23/08, Prasetyo, Hani <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
>>
>> Maksutnya pak Tom udah ga jagain FPNI lagi n ganti mainken saham
>> lainnya?
>>
>> Saham apa nih target anda berikutnya?
>>  --
>>
>> *From:* obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com [mailto:
>> [EMAIL PROTECTED] *On Behalf Of *Tom DS
>> *Sent:* Wednesday, July 23, 2008 5:31 PM
>> *To:* obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com; [EMAIL PROTECTED];
>> [EMAIL PROTECTED]; [EMAIL PROTECTED]
>> *Subject:* [obrolan-bandar] Nggak ada hutang FPNI lagi yaaa Yang mau
>> bersabar will gain much more...
>>
>>
>>
>> *Dear all,*
>>
>>
>>
>> *Saya sudah nggak ada hutang FPNI lagi ya...*
>>
>> *Harga sudah dikembalikan ke fair price sesuai hasil Q1 2008. Meskipun
>> masih sangat undervalue, tapi memperhitungkan kondisi market yang sedang
>> kurang stabil serta sentimen negatif dari cash out para investment banker
>> yang rugi, harga segitu masih cukup menarik lah..*
>>
>>
>>
>> *Kalau masih mau bersabar I'm quite sure you'll gain much more.. =)*
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>> *T.o.m*
>>
>> This email and any attachments are confidential and may also be privileged.  
>> If you are not the addressee, do not disclose, copy, circulate or in any 
>> other way use or rely on the information contained in this email or any 
>> attachments.  If received in error, notify the sender immediately and delete 
>> this email and any attachments from your system.  Emails cannot be 
>> guaranteed to be secure or error free as the message and any attachments 
>> could be intercepted, corrupted, lost, delayed, incomplete or amended.  
>> Standard Chartered PLC and its subsidiaries do not accept liability for 
>> damage caused by this email or any attachments and may monitor email traffic.
>>
>>
>>
>> Standard Chartered PLC is incorporated in England with limited liability 
>> under company number 966425 and has its registered office at 1 Aldermanbury 
>> Square, London, EC2V 7SB.
>>
>>
>>
>> Standard Chartered Bank ("SCB") is incorporated in England with limited 
>> liability by Royal Charter 1853, under reference ZC18.  The Principal Office 
>> of SCB is situated in England at 1 Aldermanbury Square, London EC2V 7SB. In 
>> the United Kingdom, SCB is authorised and regulated by the Financial 
>> Services Authority under FSA register number 114276.
>>
>>
>>
>> If you are receiving this email from SCB outside the UK, please click 
>> http://www.standardchartered.com/global/email_disclaimer.html to refer to 
>> the information on other jurisdictions.
>>
>>
>>
>
> 
>

Re: [obrolan-bandar] Nggak ada hutang FPNI lagi yaaa.... Yang mau bersabar will gain much more...

[Tom DS]

*Nggak lah, FPNI masih jadi salah satu portfolio saya...*
*Ada dua big player lagi yang mulai masuk ke FPNI. Siap-siap kalau ada
gejolak yang nggak lazim don't panic, analyze carefully..*
**
*Yupp.. we've got companies =)*
**
 *Kalau Q2 2008 keluar, jangan langsung di compare dengan Q1 2008, tapi
compare dengan periode yang sama 2007,karena trend Q1 agak berbeda dengan
Q2.*
**
*Happy cuan buat yang udah realisasikan profit... Kalau mau lebih sabar
padahal bisa gain lebih banyak lho.. =)*

**
*T.o.m*


On 7/23/08, Prasetyo, Hani <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
>
> Maksutnya pak Tom udah ga jagain FPNI lagi n ganti mainken saham
> lainnya?
>
> Saham apa nih target anda berikutnya?
>  --
>
> *From:* obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com [mailto:
> [EMAIL PROTECTED] *On Behalf Of *Tom DS
> *Sent:* Wednesday, July 23, 2008 5:31 PM
> *To:* obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com; [EMAIL PROTECTED];
> [EMAIL PROTECTED]; [EMAIL PROTECTED]
> *Subject:* [obrolan-bandar] Nggak ada hutang FPNI lagi yaaa Yang mau
> bersabar will gain much more...
>
>
>
> *Dear all,*
>
>
>
> *Saya sudah nggak ada hutang FPNI lagi ya...*
>
> *Harga sudah dikembalikan ke fair price sesuai hasil Q1 2008. Meskipun
> masih sangat undervalue, tapi memperhitungkan kondisi market yang sedang
> kurang stabil serta sentimen negatif dari cash out para investment banker
> yang rugi, harga segitu masih cukup menarik lah..*
>
>
>
> *Kalau masih mau bersabar I'm quite sure you'll gain much more.. =)*
>
>
>
>
>
> *T.o.m*
>
> This email and any attachments are confidential and may also be privileged.  
> If you are not the addressee, do not disclose, copy, circulate or in any 
> other way use or rely on the information contained in this email or any 
> attachments.  If received in error, notify the sender immediately and delete 
> this email and any attachments from your system.  Emails cannot be guaranteed 
> to be secure or error free as the message and any attachments could be 
> intercepted, corrupted, lost, delayed, incomplete or amended.  Standard 
> Chartered PLC and its subsidiaries do not accept liability for damage caused 
> by this email or any attachments and may monitor email traffic.
>
>
>
> Standard Chartered PLC is incorporated in England with limited liability 
> under company number 966425 and has its registered office at 1 Aldermanbury 
> Square, London, EC2V 7SB.
>
>
>
> Standard Chartered Bank ("SCB") is incorporated in England with limited 
> liability by Royal Charter 1853, under reference ZC18.  The Principal Office 
> of SCB is situated in England at 1 Aldermanbury Square, London EC2V 7SB. In 
> the United Kingdom, SCB is authorised and regulated by the Financial Services 
> Authority under FSA register number 114276.
>
>
>
> If you are receiving this email from SCB outside the UK, please click 
> http://www.standardchartered.com/global/email_disclaimer.html to refer to the 
> information on other jurisdictions.
>
>
> 
>

[obrolan-bandar] Nggak ada hutang FPNI lagi yaaa.... Yang mau bersabar will gain much more...

[Tom DS]

*Dear all,*
**
*Saya sudah nggak ada hutang FPNI lagi ya...*
*Harga sudah dikembalikan ke fair price sesuai hasil Q1 2008. Meskipun masih
sangat undervalue, tapi memperhitungkan kondisi market yang sedang
kurang stabil serta sentimen negatif dari cash out para investment banker
yang rugi, harga segitu masih cukup menarik lah..*
**
*Kalau masih mau bersabar I'm quite sure you'll gain much more.. =)*
**
**
*T.o.m*

Re: [obrolan-bandar] Re: Hebohnya "OB" berkat Capt. T.o.m & FPNI-nye.

[Tom DS]

*Tunggu aja. Mudah-mudahan nggak sampai lumutan nunggunya =)*
*Info yang saya peroleh kalau nggak salah masih dalam proses audit.*
**
**
*T.o.m*


On 7/22/08, icchanks <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
>
>   Kalau bicara fundamental sih, semua Bluchip fundamentalnya OK punya,
> btw kapan LQ2nya keluar yah, takut kelamaan neh bisa nyemplung duluan
> bung T.o.m..
>
> --- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com ,
> "Tom DS" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
> >
> > *Mohon maaf baru sempat reply.*
> > **
> > *Memang kondisi BEI minggu lalu secara keseluruhan terkena tekanan
> jual yg
> > cukup berat. Ada rumor investment banking Eropa & US rugi besar lagi dan
> > mereka mau recover loss mereka dengan heavy sell asset mereka di BEI
> minggu
> > lalu, dan itu berbarengan dengan Ex Cum Date ANTM serta jatuhnya
> harga CPO
> > di Malaysia karena panen raya dan masalah ekspor Venezuela. Lalu
> diperberat
> > dengan minyak yg turun mendadak yg diikuti juga dengan turunnya harga
> > batubara di New Castle Australia. Ditambah pula China sudah mulai
> > "menertibkan" lingkungan dan impor batubara, serta persiapan dalam
> menutup
> > beberapa kompleks industri hulu sehingga demand energi pun mendadak
> > berkurang.*
> > **
> > *Jadi tidak berhubungan sama sekali dengan fundamental perusahaan FPNI.
> > Mengenai target price, saya tetap maintain 490 di akhir tahun.*
> > **
> > *Mohon maaf juga bagi yang lain yang sudah email via japri tapi
> belum sempat
> > saya balas. Minggu lalu dan minggu ini sangat full...*
> > *Banyak juga yang sudahmulai antisipasi laporan keuangan emiten Q2 yang
> > sebagian besar harus sudah rampung akhir Juli ini (kecuali seperti
> biasa si
> > TLKM yg nunggu report di NYSE)*
> > **
> > **
> > *T.o.m*
> >
> >
> > On 7/16/08, Andy Kurniawan <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
> > >
> > > Malam Capt Tom,
> > >
> > > Maenin gas-nya bikin heboh juga tuh di OB Capt,
> > >
> > > Perasaan ada yang pesimistis perintah dari capt.T.o.m tapi
> diakhiri dengan
> > >
> > > kecewa berat. (belon tau dieee...) dan banyak juga yang sampe hari
> > >
> > > ini tetep juga ikutan numpang duduk,sambil kasih "aplous" tanpa
> > > sedikitpun
> > >
> > > ada niatan beranjak dari tempat duduk..seperti aku
> > >
> > > hahahaha.(seneng rasanya dikasih hiburan), Melongo lagi kali
> yah kalau
> > > esok
> > > pagi-pagi langsung digeber-geber lagi.hihihii...
> > >
> > > Btw,Thank's Tumpangannya and bolehkan numpank naek sampe bisnya
> > >
> > > karatan 
> > >
> > >
> > > Have a nice day's
> > >
> > > Amalina
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > --
> > > Dapatkan nama yang Anda sukai!
> > >
> <
> http://sg.rd.yahoo.com/id/mail/domainchoice/mail/signature/*http://mail.promotions.yahoo.com/newdomains/id/
> >
> > > Sekarang Anda dapat memiliki email di @ymail.com dan @rocketmail.com.
> > >
> > >
> >
>
> 
>

[obrolan-bandar] Re: Hebohnya "OB" berkat Capt. T.o.m & FPNI-nye..

[Tom DS]

*Mohon maaf baru sempat reply.*
**
*Memang kondisi BEI minggu lalu secara keseluruhan terkena tekanan jual yg
cukup berat. Ada rumor investment banking Eropa & US rugi besar lagi dan
mereka mau recover loss mereka dengan heavy sell asset mereka di BEI minggu
lalu, dan itu berbarengan dengan Ex Cum Date ANTM serta jatuhnya harga CPO
di Malaysia karena panen raya dan masalah ekspor Venezuela. Lalu diperberat
dengan minyak yg turun mendadak yg diikuti juga dengan turunnya harga
batubara di New Castle Australia. Ditambah pula China sudah mulai
"menertibkan"  lingkungan dan impor batubara, serta persiapan dalam menutup
beberapa kompleks industri hulu sehingga demand energi pun mendadak
berkurang.*
**
*Jadi tidak berhubungan sama sekali dengan fundamental perusahaan FPNI.
Mengenai target price, saya tetap maintain 490 di akhir tahun.*
**
*Mohon maaf juga bagi yang lain yang sudah email via japri tapi belum sempat
saya balas. Minggu lalu dan minggu ini sangat full...*
*Banyak juga yang sudahmulai antisipasi laporan keuangan emiten Q2 yang
sebagian besar harus sudah rampung akhir Juli ini (kecuali seperti biasa si
TLKM yg nunggu report di NYSE)*
**
**
*T.o.m*


On 7/16/08, Andy Kurniawan <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
>
> Malam Capt Tom,
>
> Maenin gas-nya bikin heboh juga tuh di OB Capt,
>
> Perasaan ada yang pesimistis perintah dari capt.T.o.m tapi diakhiri dengan
>
> kecewa berat.  (belon tau dieee...) dan banyak juga yang sampe hari
>
> ini  tetep juga  ikutan  numpang duduk,sambil kasih "aplous" tanpa
> sedikitpun
>
> ada niatan beranjak dari tempat duduk..seperti aku
>
> hahahaha.(seneng rasanya dikasih hiburan), Melongo lagi kali yah kalau
> esok
> pagi-pagi langsung digeber-geber lagi.hihihii...
>
> Btw,Thank's Tumpangannya and bolehkan numpank naek sampe bisnya
>
> karatan 
>
>
> Have a nice day's
>
> Amalina
>
>
>
>  --
> Dapatkan nama yang Anda sukai!
> 
> Sekarang Anda dapat memiliki email di @ymail.com dan @rocketmail.com.
>
>

[obrolan-bandar] Re: [saham] Besok ANTM nyeleneh....????

[Tom DS]

*Kalau itu sih biasa!*
**
**
*T.o.m*



On 7/17/08, dwika argenta <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
>
> *Biasanya sih turun minimal sebesar deviden yang dibagikan , deviden
> sekitar 215/saham jadi prediksi mimal opening -200 lah* .kalo harga nikel
> di LME jatuh lg malam ini bisa aja lebih  secara fundamental ANTM sih
> masih bagus , buat pemain LT mungkin bagus untuk collect besok
>
> --- On *Thu, 7/17/08, Kok Hao Khuang <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>* wrote:
>
> From: Kok Hao Khuang <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
> Subject: Re: [saham] Besok ANTM nyeleneh
> To: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
> Date: Thursday, July 17, 2008, 7:42 AM
>
>   nyeleneh maksudnya naik??
>
>
> - Original Message 
> From: Tom DS 
> To: obrolan-bandar@ yahoogroups. com; [EMAIL PROTECTED] com;
> investium_saham@ yahoogroups. com; junior_Trader@ yahoogroups. com
> Sent: Thursday, July 17, 2008 9:22:37 PM
> Subject: [saham] Besok ANTM nyeleneh 
>
>  *Percaya nggak percaya. . !!*
> **
> *Besok ANTM nyeleneh !!*
> **
> **
> *T.o.m*
>
>
> 
>

[obrolan-bandar] Besok ANTM nyeleneh....????

[Tom DS]

*Percaya nggak percaya..!!*
**
*Besok ANTM nyeleneh!!*
**
**
*T.o.m*

Re: [obrolan-bandar] Re: Ambil FPNI sekarang di 255…….. Atau besok-besok tunggu ketinggalan kereta..

[Tom DS]

*Hari ini pemanasan dulu. Jangan kaget kalo belum lari...*
**
**
*T.o.m*


On 7/15/08, Marcello Djunaidy <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
>
>dah lari tuh...
>
>
> On Tue, Jul 15, 2008 at 3:37 PM, abdulrahim abdulrahim <
> [EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
>
>> Bukannya sopir mau bongkar muatan
>>
>> Hati-hati lho
>>
>> 2008/7/15 giek Doang <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>:
>> > Sopir sudh kembali ke angkotnya hehehehheheh
>> >
>> >
>> >
>> >
>> >
>> > --- In obrolan-bandar@ yahoogroups. com, "Tom DS" 
>> > wrote:
>> >>
>> >> *Mulai collect FPNI sekarang di 255…….. Atau besok-besok tunggu
>> > ketinggalan
>> >> kereta.. *
>> >> **
>> >> **
>> >> *T.o.m*
>>
>>
>> 
>>
>> + +
>> + + + + +
>> Mohon saat meREPLY posting, text dari posting lama dihapus
>> kecuali diperlukan agar CONTEXTnya jelas.
>> + + + + +
>>
>> + +Yahoo! Groups Links
>>
>>
>>
>>
> 
>

[obrolan-bandar] Ambil FPNI sekarang di 255…….. Atau besok-besok tunggu ketinggalan kereta..

[Tom DS]

*Mulai collect FPNI sekarang di 255…….. Atau besok-besok tunggu ketinggalan
kereta..  *
**
**
*T.o.m*

Re: [obrolan-bandar] Produksi CPO Astra Agro Naik 19,9% pada Semester Pertama

[Tom DS]

*Nih infonya .
*
**
*T.o.m*

-


*Production Performance by Commodity 2008 (tons)*

*Months*

*FFB Harvested*

*CPO*

*Kernel*

*PKO*

*PKE*

*Rubber*

*Olein*

*Stearin*

*PFAD*
 *January* 355,610 89,607 19,057 1,794 2,587 366 2,027 885 168 *February* 2
96,892 76,530 16,121 1,447 2,089 359 1,355 791 103 *March* 329,714 82,374 17
,723 1,669 2,296 389 1,421 883 70 *April* 310,462 77,654 16,854 1,659 2,290
431 2,208 1,431 229 *May* 331,052 83,497 17,985 1,777 2,753 528 2,379 1,361
152 *June* 340,189 84,412 18,404 1,715 2,481 594 1,762 1,080 112

*TOTAL*
*1,963,919* *494,074* *106,144* *10,061* *14,496* *2,667* *11,152* *6,431* *
834*


On 7/10/08, manisputri <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
>
>   Produksi CPO Astra Agro Naik 19,9% pada Semester Pertama
> Kamis, 10 Juli 2008 11:05:25
>
> StockWatch (Jakarta) - Volume produksi minyak sawit mentah (crude palm
> oil/CPO) PT Astra Agro Lestari Tbk (AALI) selama paruh pertama 2008
> meningkat 19,9% menjadi 494.074 ton dibandingkan periode yang sama
> tahun sebelumnya sebesar 411.976 ton, demikian Investor Relation Astra
> Agro Lestari, Tjahyo DA.
>
> Dalam Investor Bulletin, Kamis (10/7), Tjahyo mengemukakan peningkatan
> produksi CPO tersebut dikarenakan kenaikan produksi tandan buah segar
> (TBS) perseroan sebesar 17,3% menjadi 1,96 juta ton dari 1,67 juta ton.
>
> Ia menjelaskan produksi TBS dari lahan perkebunan sawit di Sumatra
> meningkat 17,7% menjadi 959.560 ton dari 815.023 ton, di Kalimantan
> naik 25,6% menjadi 625.240 ton dari 497.902 ton dan di Sulawesi tumbuh
> 5,1% menjadi 379.119 ton dari 360.715 ton.
>
> Di samping itu, demikian Tjahyo, bertambahnya lahan menjadi 244.269
> hektar dibanding semester pertama tahun lalu yang hanya seluas 224.064
> hektar turut mengkontribusikan peningkatan produksi CPO perseroan
> selama periode tersebut. (abr)
>
> 
>

Re: [obrolan-bandar] Re: BUBBLE BURST: BUMI & THE GANG (ENRG, UNSP, BNBR, ELTY

[Tom DS]

*Wahwahwah*
**
*Saya beberapa hari ini absen dari OB, ikutan road show di luar.*
**
*Kayanya impossible pak Jos... Kalau di bawah 5900 saja saya yang borong
deh, saya batalin nyupir FPNI & CPOs nya...*
*Wah, kaya pada nggak tau aja firm valuenya BUMI berapa.. Liat coal
resourcesnya, potential growthnya, ROEnya, cashflownya, expansion plannya,
managementnya.*
**
*Kayanya pak Jos baru ikut acara
**www.mimpikaliyee.com*
* nih...hahaha.. bercanda pak Jos.. =)*
*Boleh aja sih mau diturunin ke situ nanti kta sikat bareng-bareng lah..*
**
**
*T.o.m*





On 7/10/08, jos_martino <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
>
>   Perkiraan seperti ini:
>
> Paling cepat: MINGGU DEPAN
> Paling lambat: AKHIR TAHUN
> Kalo ambil tengahnya kira-kira bulan SEPTEMBER 2008.
>
> Disc ON
> rgs,
> JM
>
> --- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com ,
> "Kidod25" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
> >
> > kapan pak Rp 4500 BUMI
> >
> > --- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com ,
> "jos_martino"
> >  wrote:
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > Group ini suka sekali menggoreng sahamnya sehingga nilainya
> menjadi
> > > SANGAT TIDAK WAJAR. PER saham mereka jauh LEBIH TINGGI dari
> > industri-nya
> > > seperti BUMI yang PER-nya pernah mencapai 167 …wuih edan.
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > Saat inilah BALON-nya PECAH, diawali dengan ENRG yang terjun
> bebas
> > ke
> > > 880 kemudian BUMI yang akan MENUJU ...
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > BUMI = Rp.4.500,-
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > Rgs,
> > >
> > > JM
> > >
> >
>
> 
>

[obrolan-bandar] A commodities 'Super Cycle'

[Tom DS]

*FYI*
**
**
*T.o.m*
---


« P&G reviews its supply chain
model|
Main  | Gazprom
challenges OPEC
»
A commodities 'Super Cycle'

[image: UdeshiJun08.jpg]
Oil prices at $140/bbl caused plenty of debate in Bangkok this week at our
Asian conference (jointly organised with ICIS). Delegates also heard
from Reliance's
President of Fibre Intermediates, Rajen Udeshi,
on
the potential for a new commodities 'Super Cycle' to be underway.

Discussing the above chart, he pointed out that the industrialisation of
China and India might well cause the same disruption as the
industrialisation of Europe and the USA in previous centuries. 'China and
India have a combined population of 2.1bn, which is one third of the world
population', he added. 'That is a lot of buying power'.
 Tags:

   - commodities 'Super
Cycle'
   - Rajen 
Udeshi
   - 
Reliance

Re: [obrolan-bandar] Re: Mr Dean saya mau nanya nich...

[Tom DS]

*PEMILU boss Dan market saat itu mendapatkan harapan baruakn adanya
perubahan makroekonomi, sosial & politik.*
*Yang menarik kalau kita lihat momen2 saat BUMI masih di 120an... mau
akuisisi KPC pada nggak ada yang percaya.*
**
**
*T.o.m*


On 7/8/08, Kabu Nusi <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
>
>
>
>
>
> Iseng amati IHSG thn 2004, agak sedikit maksa ... mirip saat ini? Kira2
> faktor penggerak (harga, volume) di bulan Juli (lalu September) 2004 itu apa
> ya?
>
> Personally (newbie nich), konsolidasi dan konfirmasi kinerja makro, sektor
> industri yang bisa jadi harapan untuk membuat momentum :)
>
>
>
> Salam,
>
>
>
>
>
> --- On *Tue, 7/8/08, Dean Earwicker <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>* wrote:
>
> From: Dean Earwicker <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
> Subject: [obrolan-bandar] Re: Mr Dean saya mau nanya nich...
> To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com
> Date: Tuesday, July 8, 2008, 4:15 AM
>
> Kalau boleh jawaban saya fwd ke OB...
>
> Sebenarnya psikologi pasar bisa kita amat dari momen2 yang terjadi
> belakangan ini. Kalau saya perhatikan kita sedang berada pada fase
> Capitulation (menyerah) yang bisa diartikan short term investor (trader)
> mulai frustasi untuk melakukan short term trading. Ini bisa disebabkan
> karena:
>
> 1. Sektor andalan (mining/energy/cpo) terlalu liar, atau bahkan sama sekali
> tidak bergerak tetapi cenderung bearish (cek TA)
> 2. Terlalu banyak salah posisi (karena sering FALSE BREAK/BULL TRAP). Coba
> lihat intraday hari ini.
> 3. Tidak ada berita baik dari emiten/pemerintah, malah DPR minta turunin
> bbm. Edan.
> 4. Analisa OB sepi, bisa diartikan banyak yang menahan diri untuk trading
> 5. Elaine tiba-tiba nyerah gitu <-- perlu verifikasi lagi dari ybs
> 6. Embah dan kang ocoy males posting, tmasuk sy sendiri hehe (kidding)
>
> Setelah fase capitulation, kita akan masuk despondecy (hopeless, pasrah,
> selamat tinggal dunia), ini bisa di trigger dengan sektor andalan memasuki
> fase koreksi yang dimulai dengan koreksi dahsyat dari harga komoditi
> terutama minyak.
>
> Antara masa despondency dan depression, disini adalah waktu yang terbaik
> bagi investor jangka panjang untuk ambil posisi. Kapan? Saya ngga tahu. Gak
> ada yang tahu. Tetapi bisa terlihat tanda-tanda sbb:
>
> 1. Downgrade berjamaah, outlook yang "menakutkan" (mungkin tidak terjadi,
> kecuali US serang Iran)
> 2. Gangguan keamanan menjelang/saat pemilu
> 3. Suku bunga yang sangat tinggi (>9%)
> 4. Pasar amat sangat sepi (isinya tinggal copet doang)
>
> *Jadi harus bagaimana? *Ya jalanin aja, nikmati saja. Memang fasenya
> begitu sih. Kita sudah rally panjng dari 2003 selama 5 tahun s/d saat
> ini.
>
> *Bearish bisa untung?* Jawaban saya, BISA. Asal disiplin. Kan gak semua
> saham turun, ada juga yang naik kan. btw, intraday IHSG liar sekali ya, ada
> apa sih?
>
> Regards,
> DE
>
> Pada 8 Juli 2008 10:30, temen saya menulis:
>
>>   Mr Dean saya mau nanya nich...
>>
>>
>>
>> beberapa waktu lalu sempat posting di OB tentang market cycle...
>>
>> dan mr dean sempet ngasih 2 gambar yang menjelaskan bahwa kita saat itu
>> ada di middle bear dan market psychology ada di capitulation moment..
>>
>>
>>
>> kalo dari 2 gambar tersebut sekarang posisi kita dimana ya??
>>
>>
>
> 
>

[obrolan-bandar] India's middle class meets inflation

[Tom DS]

*FYI*
**
**
*T.o.m*

---
 India's middle class meets inflation Despite phenomenal growth, middle
class may stumble

01 July 2008 00:00

*India's middle class is fueling the country's significant growth but rising
inflation threatens to slow things down*

*Sean Milmo/London*

THE BURGEONING middle class of India has been one of the main driving forces
behind the rapid growth of the country's economy in recent years.

While the massive economic gains in China have stemmed from a fast rise in
investment and manufactured exports, those in India have come from buoyant
domestic demand centered on middle class consumers.

They have played an important part in helping Indian GDP to grow by 8-9%
over the last four years, and to push up GDP per capita by 7.5%/year,
compared with an average 1.25% in the three decades from 1950 to 1980. In
terms of purchasing power parities, India is now the third-largest economy
in the world behind the US and China.

Its large middle class population - amounting to around 200m in about 50m
households, most of them with a single income earner - have become big
end-users of chemicals through their purchases of housing, household items,
automobiles and personal care products.

*INFLATION HITS MIDDLE CLASS*

However the expansion of the Indian middle class is now under threat because
of a steep rise in inflation, which could hold back the enlargement of the
key social group both in the short and longer term.

In early June, the country's inflation rate rose to 11.05%, up from 4.3% in
mid-2007. With the impetus coming mainly from higher oil prices and soaring
prices for imported food, inflation is now at its highest for 13 years and
double the target level set by the Reserve Bank of
India,
the central bank.

Double-digit inflation is unusual in the Indian economy, with the rate going
above 10% only in the early 1990s and in 1994-95. Now, economists predict,
it will remain in double figures for the rest of the year.

The sharp increase in prices, together with higher interest rates, is
hitting lower income groups hardest but there will also be an immediate
impact on the spending power of the middle class, which has provided the
foundation for the boom in the consumer market.

"The prices of basic commodities like fuel, food, education and the interest
rates on loans for durables are going up," says Anushree Singh, associate
analyst at the country analysis practice of UK-based
Datamonitor.
"The average Indian is now paying more on their loans as the interest rates
on home loans, for example, have gone up by 300 points in the past few
months.

"As such, the middle class cannot afford those goods that they had
previously been able to," he adds. "It will adversely affect [their]
lifestyle."

*INFLATION JEOPARDIZES MIDDLE CLASS EDUCATION REQUIREMENTS*

In the longer term, high inflation could also weaken the private education
sector that has been playing a crucial role in raising the quality of
India's workforce. More significantly, it has been the route for people to
achieve middle class status.

Inflation will jack up the expense of private education for which fees are
already taking up a large proportion of household income because of the
inability of supply to keep up with demand in the private sector.

"A lot of parents will not be able to afford to send their children to
private schools anymore," warns Christopher Butel, chairman of IIMS
Dataworks , a market research organization at
Nodia, Delhi. "The numbers going through private schools, which are the main
means of acquiring the skills necessary for a middle-class income, will
diminish. Inevitably there will be a slowdown in the growth of the middle
class."

Some experts have been predicting a relentless rise in the size of India's
middle class. Management consultancy McKinsey &
Co.has forecast that by 2025, it will amount
to 583m. With China's middle
class, together with China's own middle class, this will have an enormous
influence on the world economy.

*MIDDLE CLASS IS STILL TINY*

At the moment, the core 50m-60m of Indians, whose earnings fund the
expenditure of the country's middle-class households, account for only some
5% of the country's population.

Middle class incomes are predominantly at levels well above those of average
annual earnings of rupees (Rs) 70,000 ($1,630). According to recent figures
from IIMS Dataworks, middle class earners typically include shopkeepers with
average incomes of around Rs100,000, public and private sector salaried
employees on Rs105,000-140,000, self-employed professionals on Rs320,000 and
businessmen on Rs480,000. The top 1-2% of earners are the wealthy, some of
them with incomes as high as their Western counterparts.

"A typical middle class person can afford basic luxur

[obrolan-bandar] US June auto sales plummet 19% year on year

[Tom DS]

FYI


*T.o.m*


 US June auto sales plummet 19% year on year

01 July 2008 22:33

[image: June auto sales hit rough patch]HOUSTON --US automobile sales among
some of the country's top producers plunged 19% in June, companies said on
Tuesday.

Many US auto producers reported year-over-year declines for both car and
truck sales.

Automobiles are an important chemical end market, in that each has an
average of $2,400 (€1,512) worth of chemistry, according to the
American Chemistry
Council (ACC). Automobile parts include rubber hoses, plastic dashboards,
catalysts, fibres, adhesives and coatings.

Falling US automobile sales are already trickling down to chemical
producers.

Dow Chemical said its automotive unit will close three plants because of a
drop in automobile sales.

Several plastic processors tied to the automobile industry have filed for
bankruptcy 
protection.


Chrysler reported some of the worse June sales figures among the major
producers in the US. Car sales fell by 49% year over year, and truck sales
fell by 30%.

"The June results reflect the industry-wide impact of US consumer confidence
being at its lowest point since 1992," according to a statement by Jim
Press, Chrysler president.

GM and Ford also reported double-digit declines in car and truck sales.

Honda, however, reported a 19% increase in June car sales. Honda's car sales
outnumbered those for trucks by more than two to one.

Toyota's car sales rose by 5%. However, truck sales fell by 31%, causing the
company to report a decline in overall automobile sales.

The following lists combined car and truck sales among the largest producers
in the US.



June 08

June 07

Honda

142,539

140,935

Toyota

193,234

218,513

GM

262,329

320,668

Ford

167,090

232,457

Chrysler

117,457

183,347

*TOTAL*

*882,649*

*1,095,920*

[obrolan-bandar] Buy all CPOs you like by tomorrow........

[Tom DS]

*Buy all CPOs you like by tomorrow*
**
**
*T.o.m*
**
*Note : excl. TBLA (I'm not so sure with its management)*

Re: [obrolan-bandar] Besok mau bareng-bareng sikat FPNI nggak?

[Tom DS]

*FPNI ini agak unik...*
**
*Kenaikan oil price biasanya merembet ke cost, tapi kelihatannya
managementnya cukup cerdik untuk mentransfer cost tsb ke customernya.
Kecuali oil price pada level tertentu maka customer tdk punya buying power.
Rasa-rasanya jadi mirip sama karakter industry CPO...*
**
*Numpang naik besok??? Tentu. *
*Bang supir, stop bentar bang ada yang mau naik dulu... Tapi ambil
penumpangnya jangan yang nakal-nakal ya, kalau nakal nanti supirnya bisa
ditendang terus mobilnya dibawa kabur sama penumpangnya.. ngebut
lagi... hahahahaha =D*
**
**
*T.o.m*



On 7/8/08, Eko Nurcahyono <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
>
> Masih ada chance untuk numpang lagi gak ?
> tadi keburu panik lihat IHSG terjuan bebas.
>
>
>
> --- On *Tue, 7/8/08, Tom DS <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>* wrote:
>
> From: Tom DS <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
> Subject: Re: [obrolan-bandar] Besok mau bareng-bareng sikat FPNI nggak?
> To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, [EMAIL PROTECTED],
> [EMAIL PROTECTED], [EMAIL PROTECTED]
> Date: Tuesday, July 8, 2008, 7:00 AM
>
>   *Pak John,*
> **
> *Suer beneran, tadi pagi yang ngangkat di menit-menit awal-awal bukan
> saya. Saya hari ini pakai 3 kendaraan (yang 2 masuk Top 5 active broker for
> FPNI). Harga pertama saya masuk hari ini sudah di 300.*
> *Lumayan, sudah 20% dari target FPNI aman di kantong. =)*
> *Pelan-pelan sikatnya, yang sabar... biar semua kebagian & senang...*
> **
> *Ohya, gosipnya ada kemungkinan Q2 nya delay sedkit. Kita berdoa saja
> mudah2an nggak terlalu lama delaynya.*
> **
> **
> *T.o.m*
>
>
>
> On 7/8/08, John Sun <[EMAIL PROTECTED] com <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>> wrote:
>>
>>jadi siapa dong, masak kendaraannya jalan tanpa driver?????? ?????
>> ??
>>
>>
>>
>> Ayo yang udah cuan ngakuuu  
>>
>>
>> - Original Message 
>> From: Tom DS >
>> To: obrolan-bandar@ yahoogroups. com 
>> Sent: Tuesday, July 8, 2008 10:56:50 AM
>> Subject: Re: [obrolan-bandar] Besok mau bareng-bareng sikat FPNI nggak?
>>
>>  *Yang pagi tadi awal-awal bukan saya, beneran... Suer deh..*
>> **
>> **
>> *T.o.m*
>>
>>
>> On 7/8/08, Lala Tobing <[EMAIL PROTECTED] com <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>>
>> wrote:
>>>
>>> wah, bang tom.. katanya pagi2 mo mangkal dulu..
>>> tau2 ud terbang begini, ketinggalan deh kita..
>>>
>>> --- On *Mon, 7/7/08, John Sun <[EMAIL PROTECTED] com<[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
>>> >* wrote:
>>>
>>> From: John Sun <[EMAIL PROTECTED] com <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>>
>>> Subject: Re: [obrolan-bandar] Besok mau bareng-bareng sikat FPNI nggak?
>>> To: obrolan-bandar@ yahoogroups. com 
>>> Date: Monday, July 7, 2008, 10:46 PM
>>>
>>>   jadi kita harus naik di KM berapa n rencana untuk makan cumi-cumi di
>>> KM berapa?
>>>
>>> - Original Message 
>>> From: Tom DS 
>>> To: obrolan-bandar@ yahoogroups. com
>>> Sent: Monday, July 7, 2008 10:53:03 PM
>>> Subject: Re: [obrolan-bandar] Besok mau bareng-bareng sikat FPNI nggak?
>>>
>>>  *Kan dari kamis & jumat, tadi juga, udah mangkal...*
>>> **
>>> *Besok awal-awal boleh deh mangkal, tapi bentar aja ya..
>>> *
>>> **
>>> *T.o.m*
>>>
>>>
>>> On 7/7/08, Paulus Tangke Allo <[EMAIL PROTECTED] com <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>>
>>> wrote:
>>>>
>>>>   sebelum masuk tol, masih bisa naikin penumpang gak?
>>>> males naik di terminal sihh...
>>>>
>>>> --pta
>>>>
>>>> On 7/7/08, Tom DS >
>>>> wrote:
>>>> >
>>>> >
>>>> > Ya sikat kanan...
>>>> >
>>>> > Kanan udah lumayan lama si supir istirahat terlena sama "cewe"
>>>> lain Hehehehe...
>>>> >
>>>> > Lumayan besok pemanasan sebelum laporan Q2 keluar... =D
>>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>
>>
>
>
>
> 
>

Re: [obrolan-bandar] BUMI akan akuisisi BHP BILLITON, BUMI siap2 ke 20.000

[Tom DS]

*Nggak mungkin.*
**
*Cash BUMI cuma Rp 1322 Bio as per 31 Mar 08 dengan Short-term borrowing Rp
1012 Bio.*
*Dia punya rencana akuisisi Herald etc. Ekspansi usaha dsb... Mau pinjam ke
bank berapa besar?*
*Kecuali akuisisi kecil-kecilan ya bisa, tapi kecil-kecilan masa cepet
banget ke 2*
**
**
*T.o.m*


On 7/8/08, tamara p <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
>
>Andai kata benar, mungkin saja BUMI naik ke 20.000 di tengah2 masa
> bearish...
>
> 
>

Re: [obrolan-bandar] Besok mau bareng-bareng sikat FPNI nggak?

[Tom DS]

*Pak John,*
**
*Suer beneran, tadi pagi yang ngangkat di menit-menit awal-awal bukan saya.
Saya hari ini pakai 3 kendaraan (yang 2 masuk Top 5 active broker for FPNI).
Harga pertama saya masuk hari ini sudah di 300.*
*Lumayan, sudah 20% dari target FPNI aman di kantong. =)*
*Pelan-pelan sikatnya, yang sabar... biar semua kebagian & senang...*
**
*Ohya, gosipnya ada kemungkinan Q2 nya delay sedkit. Kita berdoa saja
mudah2an nggak terlalu lama delaynya.*
**
**
*T.o.m*



On 7/8/08, John Sun <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
>
>jadi siapa dong, masak kendaraannya jalan tanpa driver?
>
>
>
> Ayo yang udah cuan ngakuuu
>
>
> ----- Original Message 
> From: Tom DS <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
> To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com
> Sent: Tuesday, July 8, 2008 10:56:50 AM
> Subject: Re: [obrolan-bandar] Besok mau bareng-bareng sikat FPNI nggak?
>
>  *Yang pagi tadi awal-awal bukan saya, beneran... Suer deh..*
> **
> **
> *T.o.m*
>
>
> On 7/8/08, Lala Tobing <[EMAIL PROTECTED] com <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>> wrote:
>>
>> wah, bang tom.. katanya pagi2 mo mangkal dulu..
>> tau2 ud terbang begini, ketinggalan deh kita..
>>
>> --- On *Mon, 7/7/08, John Sun <[EMAIL PROTECTED] com<[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
>> >* wrote:
>>
>> From: John Sun <[EMAIL PROTECTED] com <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>>
>> Subject: Re: [obrolan-bandar] Besok mau bareng-bareng sikat FPNI nggak?
>> To: obrolan-bandar@ yahoogroups. com 
>> Date: Monday, July 7, 2008, 10:46 PM
>>
>>   jadi kita harus naik di KM berapa n rencana untuk makan cumi-cumi di KM
>> berapa?
>>
>> - Original Message 
>> From: Tom DS 
>> To: obrolan-bandar@ yahoogroups. com
>> Sent: Monday, July 7, 2008 10:53:03 PM
>> Subject: Re: [obrolan-bandar] Besok mau bareng-bareng sikat FPNI nggak?
>>
>>  *Kan dari kamis & jumat, tadi juga, udah mangkal...*
>> **
>> *Besok awal-awal boleh deh mangkal, tapi bentar aja ya..
>> *
>> **
>> *T.o.m*
>>
>>
>> On 7/7/08, Paulus Tangke Allo <[EMAIL PROTECTED] com <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>>
>> wrote:
>>>
>>>   sebelum masuk tol, masih bisa naikin penumpang gak?
>>> males naik di terminal sihh...
>>>
>>> --pta
>>>
>>> On 7/7/08, Tom DS >
>>> wrote:
>>> >
>>> >
>>> > Ya sikat kanan...
>>> >
>>> > Kanan udah lumayan lama si supir istirahat terlena sama "cewe" lain
>>> Hehehehe...
>>> >
>>> > Lumayan besok pemanasan sebelum laporan Q2 keluar... =D
>>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>
> 
>

Re: [obrolan-bandar] Besok mau bareng-bareng sikat FPNI nggak?

[Tom DS]

*Yang pagi tadi awal-awal bukan saya, beneran... Suer deh..*
**
**
*T.o.m*


On 7/8/08, Lala Tobing <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
>
> wah, bang tom.. katanya pagi2 mo mangkal dulu..
> tau2 ud terbang begini, ketinggalan deh kita..
>
> --- On *Mon, 7/7/08, John Sun <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>* wrote:
>
> From: John Sun <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
> Subject: Re: [obrolan-bandar] Besok mau bareng-bareng sikat FPNI nggak?
> To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com
> Date: Monday, July 7, 2008, 10:46 PM
>
>   jadi kita harus naik di KM berapa n rencana untuk makan cumi-cumi di KM
> berapa?
>
> - Original Message 
> From: Tom DS 
> To: obrolan-bandar@ yahoogroups. com
> Sent: Monday, July 7, 2008 10:53:03 PM
> Subject: Re: [obrolan-bandar] Besok mau bareng-bareng sikat FPNI nggak?
>
>  *Kan dari kamis & jumat, tadi juga, udah mangkal...*
> **
> *Besok awal-awal boleh deh mangkal, tapi bentar aja ya..
> *
> **
> *T.o.m*
>
>
> On 7/7/08, Paulus Tangke Allo <[EMAIL PROTECTED] com <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>>
> wrote:
>>
>>   sebelum masuk tol, masih bisa naikin penumpang gak?
>> males naik di terminal sihh...
>>
>> --pta
>>
>> On 7/7/08, Tom DS >
>> wrote:
>> >
>> >
>> > Ya sikat kanan...
>> >
>> > Kanan udah lumayan lama si supir istirahat terlena sama "cewe" lain
>> Hehehehe...
>> >
>> > Lumayan besok pemanasan sebelum laporan Q2 keluar... =D
>>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> 
>

Re: Fw: [obrolan-bandar] Re: [saham] Besok mau bareng-bareng sikat FPNI nggak?

[Tom DS]

*Jangan kenceng-kenceng tapi.. jangan lebih dari 310 dulu untuk hari ini...*
*Barusan ada aja tuh yg udah narik ke 315...*
**
*Pelan2 aja bro... Q2 belum keluar... hemat bensin dulu buat besok-besok...*
**
**
*T.o.m*


On 7/8/08, krisdian sas <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
>
> siap..1,2,3 go...
> --- On *Tue, 8/7/08, Tom DS <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>* wrote:
>
> From: Tom DS <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
> Subject: [obrolan-bandar] Re: [saham] Besok mau bareng-bareng sikat FPNI
> nggak?
> To: [EMAIL PROTECTED], [EMAIL PROTECTED],
> obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, [EMAIL PROTECTED]
> Date: Tuesday, 8 July, 2008, 7:40 AM
>
>   *Eeeh tapi jangan kenceng-kenceng ya... Hari ini sampai 295-300 aja
> dulu. Jangan serakah dulu, sisain keringet buat Q2... =)*
> **
> **
> *T.o.m*
>
>
> On 7/7/08, Faisal Latief >
> wrote:
>>
>>   Ikut boss... as u command...
>>
>> 2008/7/7 Tom DS >:
>>
>>>*Besok mau bareng-bareng sikat FPNI nggak?*
>>> *Kayanya udah cukup kenyang kan pada beli murah??*
>>> **
>>> **
>>> *T.o.m*
>>>
>>
>>
>
> Send instant messages to your online friends http://uk.messenger.yahoo.com
> 
>

Re: [obrolan-bandar] Besok mau bareng-bareng sikat FPNI nggak?

[Tom DS]

*Jangan lebih dari 310 dulu ya hari ini*
**
**
*T.o.m*


On 7/8/08, John Sun <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
>
>jadi kita harus naik di KM berapa n rencana untuk makan cumi-cumi di KM
> berapa?
>
> - Original Message 
> From: Tom DS <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
> To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com
> Sent: Monday, July 7, 2008 10:53:03 PM
> Subject: Re: [obrolan-bandar] Besok mau bareng-bareng sikat FPNI nggak?
>
>  *Kan dari kamis & jumat, tadi juga, udah mangkal...*
> **
> *Besok awal-awal boleh deh mangkal, tapi bentar aja ya..
> *
> **
> *T.o.m*
>
>
> On 7/7/08, Paulus Tangke Allo <[EMAIL PROTECTED] com <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>>
> wrote:
>>
>>   sebelum masuk tol, masih bisa naikin penumpang gak?
>> males naik di terminal sihh...
>>
>> --pta
>>
>> On 7/7/08, Tom DS >
>> wrote:
>> >
>> >
>> > Ya sikat kanan...
>> >
>> > Kanan udah lumayan lama si supir istirahat terlena sama "cewe" lain
>> Hehehehe...
>> >
>> > Lumayan besok pemanasan sebelum laporan Q2 keluar... =D
>>
>
>
> 
>

[obrolan-bandar] Re: [saham] Besok mau bareng-bareng sikat FPNI nggak?

[Tom DS]

*Eeeh tapi jangan kenceng-kenceng ya... Hari ini sampai 295-300 aja dulu.
Jangan serakah dulu, sisain keringet buat Q2... =)*
**
**
*T.o.m*


On 7/7/08, Faisal Latief <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
>
>   Ikut boss... as u command...
>
> 2008/7/7 Tom DS <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>:
>
>>*Besok mau bareng-bareng sikat FPNI nggak?*
>> *Kayanya udah cukup kenyang kan pada beli murah??*
>> **
>> **
>> *T.o.m*
>>
>
> 
>

Re: [obrolan-bandar] Besok mau bareng-bareng sikat FPNI nggak?

[Tom DS]

*Kan dari kamis & jumat, tadi juga, udah mangkal...*
**
*Besok awal-awal boleh deh mangkal, tapi bentar aja ya..
*
**
*T.o.m*


On 7/7/08, Paulus Tangke Allo <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
>
>   sebelum masuk tol, masih bisa naikin penumpang gak?
> males naik di terminal sihh...
>
> --pta
>
> On 7/7/08, Tom DS <[EMAIL PROTECTED] >
> wrote:
> >
> >
> > Ya sikat kanan...
> >
> > Kanan udah lumayan lama si supir istirahat terlena sama "cewe" lain
> Hehehehe...
> >
> > Lumayan besok pemanasan sebelum laporan Q2 keluar... =D
> 
>

Re: [obrolan-bandar] Besok mau bareng-bareng sikat FPNI nggak?

[Tom DS]

*Ya sikat kanan...*
**
*Kanan udah lumayan lama si supir istirahat terlena sama "cewe" lain
Hehehehe...*
**
*Lumayan besok pemanasan sebelum laporan Q2 keluar... =D*
**
**
*T.o.m*


On 7/7/08, giek Doang <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
>
>Sikat kanan atau kiri
> - Pesan Asli 
> Dari: Tom DS <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
> Kepada: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com; [EMAIL PROTECTED];
> [EMAIL PROTECTED]; [EMAIL PROTECTED]
> Terkirim: Senin, 7 Juli, 2008 00:07:23
> Topik: [obrolan-bandar] Besok mau bareng-bareng sikat FPNI nggak?
>
>  *Besok mau bareng-bareng sikat FPNI nggak?*
> *Kayanya udah cukup kenyang kan pada beli murah??*
> **
> **
> *T.o.m*
>
>
> --
> Dapatkan alamat Email baru Anda!
> <http://sg.rd.yahoo.com/id/mail/domainchoice/mail/signature/*http://mail.promotions.yahoo.com/newdomains/id/>
> Dapatkan nama yang selalu Anda inginkan sebelum diambil orang lain!
>
> 
>

[obrolan-bandar] Besok mau bareng-bareng sikat FPNI nggak?

[Tom DS]

*Besok mau bareng-bareng sikat FPNI nggak?*
*Kayanya udah cukup kenyang kan pada beli murah??*
**
**
*T.o.m*

Re: [obrolan-bandar] Re: JSX=BUMI=dan teman2nya

[Tom DS]

*Yup untuk short-term demand batubara South East Asia akan menurun... Sampai
sekitar 2 minggu setelah 24 August setelah Olympic selesai?*
*Stok mulai menipis, dan mulai heavy buy lagi menjelang october-november krn
menjelang musim dingin, oil price mulai rally lagi, coal ikut-ikutan
ketularan... =)*
**
**
*T.o.m*


On 7/6/08, yokorusi <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
>
>
> Menurut saya harga batubara turun sementara saja karena posisi
> permintaan batubara akan terus meningkat ke depan. LRC Power Plant
> yang sudah dibangun dan sedang dibangun di berbagai negara akan
> membutuhkan batubara dalam jumlah yang sangat significant.
>
> Cadangan batubara dengan calorie tinggi juga terus menipis dengan
> tingkat biaya yang terus menaik seiring kenaikan harga minyak dan
> posisi cadangan tersedia saat ini yang rata2 memiliki stripping ratio
> tinggi.
>
> LRC Power Plant digunakan untuk jangka panjang terlepas dampak polusi
> lingkungan yang disebabkan cukup buruk. Mengganti low rank calorie
> thermal coal dengan higher calorie sama dengan melakukan investasi
> tambahan terutama dalam penggantian boiler. Akan terjadi kenaikan cost
> yang significant dari biaya produksi per watt listrik.
>
> Sebaliknya membatalkan ataupun memberhentikan LRC power plant akan
> menyebabkan short supply dimana mana. Bila anda berkunjung ke beberapa
> kota di Indonesia, maka pemadaman listrik adalah hal yang jamak yang
> terjadi setiap hari. Satu karena kurangnya pembangkit yang tersedia
> dan kedua disebabkan tingkat inventory dan supply yang tersedia cukup
> minim pada saat ini.
>
> Sebagai referensi, bisa dilihat jumlah penambahan LRC power plant di
> berbagai negara Asia Selatan dan Asia Tenggara, maka akan terlihat
> betapa besar peran LRC dalam satu dasawarsa ke depan.
>
> Salam,
> http://unpublisheddream.blogspot.com/
>
> --- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com ,
> M|C <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
> >
> > Sesederhana itukah yang menjadi penyebab turunnya permintaan akan
> batubara
> > yang mengakibatkan turunnya harga batubara di tahun ini ? Apakah ada
> bahan
> > bakar lain yang masuk akal menggantikan minyak yang harganya makin
> menggila
> > saja ?
> >
> > Pada tanggal 05/07/08, Tom DS <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> menulis:
> > >
> > > *Nggak Pak. Masih logis...*
> > > **
> > > *China menurunkan import batubaranya krn stock sudah cukup, lagipula
> > > menjelang Olympic di Beijing, akan banyak pengguna batubara yg
> tidak dapat
> > > beroperasi krn government policy masalah pencemaran. Indsutri hulu
> saja
> > > banyak yg akan shutdown di bulan Agustus. Semua cuma gara-gara Beijing
> > > Olympic. Interesting isn't it... =)*
> > > **
> > > **
> > > *T.o.m*
> > >
> > >
> > > On 7/5/08, M|C <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
> > >>
> > >> wah, sungguh diluar logika jika harga minyak naik terus
> sementara coal
> > >> turun terus ?? bwat BUMI go go go...
> > >>
> > >> 2008/7/5, kspm_rheza <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>:
> > >>>
> > >>> eropa kmren close minus
> > >>>
> > >>> klo bsk regional minus + harga coal trun = JSX trun lagi
> > >>>
> > >>> saya rsa coal smt1 2008 utk sementara tdk akan tembus NEWC 200
> > >>> mungkin minggu dpn sudah mulai koreksi.
> > >>>
> > >>> bwt BUMI klo dah dpt Bbrp persen lngsung out j..
> > >>>
> > >>> Btw busway subway monorail:nikel jatuh terus tuh harganya.. :P
> > >>> bakal jebol 2$/MT kliatanya..
> > >>>
> > >>>
> > >>
> > >
> > >
> > >
> >
>
> 
>

Re: [obrolan-bandar] Re: Si Bayan

[Tom DS]

*Hahaha...*
**
*Itu dia,makanya saya koq jadi bingung sendiri ngeliat laporannya, sayangnya
cuma resume, nggak punya detail financial statementsnya...*
*Kalau ada , boleh juga di share Kang Ocoy...*
**
**
*T.o.m*


On 7/6/08, kang_ocoy_maen_saham <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
>
>   kata si botak CFO nya sih ;
>
> di Q1 sbagian harga jual udah kekunci, trus di Q1 ada perencanaan
> ulang Tambang (Ngebom en Nyerok Overburden kali... ^_^)
>
> H1 Sih dy bilang ga akan Incurred, itu temporary squeezed. ga tau
> deh, dy janji mo kirim UnAudit Reportnya begitu beres.
>
> coba kita tunggu aja klaim nya., harusnya sih marginnya improved, masa
> Kcal Tinggi marginnya kalah bagus ama yg Kcal jelek.
>
> --- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com ,
> "Tom DS" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
> >
> > *Wah boleh juga bocorannya... *
> > **
> > *Sekilas comment :*
> > *Tapi kalau ngeliat Q1 2008 dibanding Q1 2007 koq 2008 jelek banget
> ya? *
> > *Gross profit margin tergerus dari 27% di Q1 2007 jadi 20% Q1 2008
> (COGSnya
> > naik mungkin karena oil price inrease?)*
> > *Operating expense naik dari 14% jadi 19%, impactnya Operating
> Margin jadi
> > tergerus juga dari 13% jadi cuma 0.6%...*
> > *Untungnya di 2008 dapet other income dari mana nih? jual beli
> > perusahaan? atau ngegoreng saham apa?*
> > *Net profit margin overall fell from 11% to 2%*
> > **
> > *Dari sisi liabilities, gede bangetMeski assetnya nambah terus
> > (mungkin karena banyak aktivitas akuisisi & ekspansi usaha), tapi berani
> > sampe kapan dia due date penyelesaian hutang?? rata-rata >50%
> liabilities
> > terdiri dari short-term debt... Sayang nggak ada cash flow
> statements, kalo
> > ada ketauan deh performance cash flow dia compare to very highly
> financial
> > leverage strategy dia..*
> > *Tapi ngeliat dari Net profit marginnya yg kecil bgt gitu di tengah
> harga
> > batubara yg naik, jadi agak sanksi sama Bayan... Yg bner aja COGSnya
> bisa
> > 70% bahkan sampe 80%... mana ada bisnis batubara kaya gitu, parah
> banget
> > *
> > **
> > *Satu lagi yg paling penting... ROEnya kecil banget..masa cuma 10%di Q1
> > 2008... Q1 2007 bisa 834%...*
> > *Net incomenya 2008 very bad...*
> > **
> > *Temporary recommendation : DON't BUY. Jauh mendngan BUMI, PTBA,
> ITMG
> > atau Adaro... *
> > *~disclaimer on~*
> > **
> > *Tapi kalau ada yang punya financial statements dia yg lengkap boleh di
> > share, mungkin kita jadi bisa tau penyebab semua kondisi keuangan
> dia. Koq
> > kaya gini berani IPO yah*
> > *Any comments from others? EL? Pak ocoy? Pak Boyz? Mbah??*
> > **
> > **
> > *T.o.m*
> >
> >
> > On 7/5/08, Herman Tobing <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
> > >
> > > Bagaimana nih prospeknya si Bayan ?
> > >
> > >
> > >
> >
>
> 
>

Re: [obrolan-bandar] JSX=BUMI=dan teman2nya

[Tom DS]

*Saya paham sekali beberapa industri hulu China shutdown di Agustus.*
*Bapak bisa cek di berbagai media mengenai oil & gas, juga petrochemical
industry, baru akan ngeh seberapa besar kekuatan Beijing Olympic di China &
berapa besar pengaruh politik pemerintah China.*
**
*Mulai dari batubara, plastik, chemicals, oil refinery.. Wah luar biasa
China*
**
**
*T.o.m*


On 7/5/08, M|C <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
>
>   Sesederhana itukah yang menjadi penyebab turunnya permintaan akan
> batubara yang mengakibatkan turunnya harga batubara di tahun ini ? Apakah
> ada bahan bakar lain yang masuk akal menggantikan minyak yang harganya makin
> menggila saja ?
>
> Pada tanggal 05/07/08, Tom DS <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> menulis:
>>
>>*Nggak Pak. Masih logis...*
>> **
>> *China menurunkan import batubaranya krn stock sudah cukup, lagipula
>> menjelang Olympic di Beijing, akan banyak pengguna batubara yg tidak dapat
>> beroperasi krn government policy masalah pencemaran. Indsutri hulu saja
>> banyak yg akan shutdown di bulan Agustus. Semua cuma gara-gara Beijing
>> Olympic. Interesting isn't it... =)*
>> **
>> **
>> *T.o.m*
>>
>>
>> On 7/5/08, M|C <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
>>>
>>>   wah, sungguh diluar logika jika harga minyak naik terus sementara coal
>>> turun terus ?? bwat BUMI go go go...
>>>
>>> 2008/7/5, kspm_rheza <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>:
>>>>
>>>>   eropa kmren close minus
>>>>
>>>> klo bsk regional minus + harga coal trun = JSX trun lagi
>>>>
>>>> saya rsa coal smt1 2008 utk sementara tdk akan tembus NEWC 200
>>>> mungkin minggu dpn sudah mulai koreksi.
>>>>
>>>> bwt BUMI klo dah dpt Bbrp persen lngsung out j..
>>>>
>>>> Btw busway subway monorail:nikel jatuh terus tuh harganya.. :P
>>>> bakal jebol 2$/MT kliatanya..
>>>>
>>>>
>>>
>>
>>
> 
>

Re: [obrolan-bandar] Re: 45 Menit Gempa Di BEJ

[Tom DS]

*Daripada ribut, mending belajar CENAYANG-OLOGI aja yuk, ambil spesialisasi
stockmarket.. *
**
*Sekarang badutnya jadi 6... =)*
**
**
*T.o.m*


On 7/5/08, boyz <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
>
>   Hehehe...
> Sorry, sorry ... i'm too much yah...
>
> Wah, lagi week end gini enaknya nikmati liburan dulu nih. Lagi males mikir.
> Tar malam ada kursus private sama Linda S...
> Hehehe... ya kan lind?
> And besok mau ajak my darling Elaine jalan-jalan ke Bandung. [image: :D]
>
> wah pokoknya lagi sibuk deh, kekekek...
>
> Salam,
>
>
> --- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, "John Bei" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
> wrote:
> >
> > Now, we have 5 clowns :)
> > Udah ya bosen nikh.
> >
> > Let's go back to the business. Pak Boyz share donk insight nya buat BEI
> > hari Senin.
> >
>
> 
>

Re: [obrolan-bandar] JSX=BUMI=dan teman2nya

[Tom DS]

*Nggak Pak. Masih logis...*
**
*China menurunkan import batubaranya krn stock sudah cukup, lagipula
menjelang Olympic di Beijing, akan banyak pengguna batubara yg tidak dapat
beroperasi krn government policy masalah pencemaran. Indsutri hulu saja
banyak yg akan shutdown di bulan Agustus. Semua cuma gara-gara Beijing
Olympic. Interesting isn't it... =)*
**
**
*T.o.m*


On 7/5/08, M|C <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
>
>   wah, sungguh diluar logika jika harga minyak naik terus sementara coal
> turun terus ?? bwat BUMI go go go...
>
> 2008/7/5, kspm_rheza <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>:
>>
>>   eropa kmren close minus
>>
>> klo bsk regional minus + harga coal trun = JSX trun lagi
>>
>> saya rsa coal smt1 2008 utk sementara tdk akan tembus NEWC 200
>> mungkin minggu dpn sudah mulai koreksi.
>>
>> bwt BUMI klo dah dpt Bbrp persen lngsung out j..
>>
>> Btw busway subway monorail:nikel jatuh terus tuh harganya.. :P
>> bakal jebol 2$/MT kliatanya..
>>
>>
> 
>

Re: [obrolan-bandar] Si Bayan

[Tom DS]

*Wah boleh juga bocorannya... *
**
*Sekilas comment :*
*Tapi kalau ngeliat Q1 2008 dibanding Q1 2007 koq 2008 jelek banget ya? *
*Gross profit margin tergerus dari 27% di Q1 2007 jadi 20% Q1 2008 (COGSnya
naik mungkin karena oil price inrease?)*
*Operating expense naik dari 14% jadi 19%, impactnya Operating Margin jadi
tergerus juga dari 13% jadi cuma 0.6%...*
*Untungnya di 2008 dapet other income dari mana nih? jual beli
perusahaan? atau ngegoreng saham apa?*
*Net profit margin overall fell from 11% to 2%*
**
*Dari sisi liabilities, gede bangetMeski assetnya nambah terus
(mungkin karena banyak aktivitas akuisisi & ekspansi usaha), tapi berani
sampe kapan dia due date penyelesaian hutang?? rata-rata >50% liabilities
terdiri dari short-term debt... Sayang nggak ada cash flow statements, kalo
ada ketauan deh performance cash flow dia compare to very highly financial
leverage strategy dia..*
*Tapi ngeliat dari Net profit marginnya yg kecil bgt gitu di tengah harga
batubara yg naik, jadi agak sanksi sama Bayan... Yg bner aja COGSnya bisa
70% bahkan sampe 80%... mana ada bisnis batubara kaya gitu, parah banget
*
**
*Satu lagi yg paling penting... ROEnya kecil banget..masa cuma 10%di Q1
2008... Q1 2007 bisa 834%...*
*Net incomenya 2008 very bad...*
**
*Temporary recommendation : DON't BUY. Jauh mendngan BUMI, PTBA, ITMG
atau Adaro... *
*~disclaimer on~*
**
*Tapi kalau ada yang punya financial statements dia yg lengkap boleh di
share, mungkin kita jadi bisa tau penyebab semua kondisi keuangan dia. Koq
kaya gini berani IPO yah*
*Any comments from others? EL? Pak ocoy? Pak Boyz? Mbah??*
**
**
*T.o.m*


On 7/5/08, Herman Tobing <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
>
>   Bagaimana nih prospeknya si Bayan ?
> 
>
>

[obrolan-bandar] Employment Situation

[Tom DS]

*FYI lagi...*
**
**
*T.o.m*

---
 Employment Situation
--
   Released on 7/3/08 For Jun 2008Nonfarm Payrolls - M/M change
Consensus -50,000  *Actual* *-62,000 * Unemployment Rate - Level
Consensus 5.5 %  *Actual* *5.5 % * Average Hourly Earnings - M/M change
Consensus 0.3 %  *Actual* *0.3 % * Average Workweek - Level  Consensus 33.7
hrs  *Actual* *33.7 hrs *   2008 Release Schedule*Released On:*
1/4
2/1
3/7
4/4
5/2
6/6
7/3
8/1
9/5
10/3
11/7
12/5
*Released For:* Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov  Definition
The employment situation is a set of labor market indicators. The
unemployment rate measures the number of unemployed as a percentage of the
labor force. Nonfarm payroll employment counts the number of paid employees
working part-time or full-time in the nation's business and government
establishments. The average workweek reflects the number of hours worked in
the nonfarm sector. Average hourly earnings reveal the basic hourly rate for
major industries as indicated in nonfarm payrolls. (Bureau of Labor
Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor)  Why Do Investors Care?
If ever there was an economic report that can move the markets, this is it!
The anticipation on Wall Street each month is palpable, the reactions are
dramatic, and the information for investors is invaluable. By digging just a
little deeper than the headline unemployment rate, investors can take more
strategic control of their portfolio and even take advantage of unique
investment opportunities that often arise in the days surrounding this
report.

The employment data give the most comprehensive report on how many people
are looking for jobs, how many have them, what they're getting paid and how
many hours they are working. These numbers are the best way to gauge the
current state as well as the future direction of the economy. Nonfarm
payrolls are categorized by sectors. This sector data can go a long way in
helping investors determine in which economic sectors they intend to invest.


The employment statistics also provide insight on wage trends, and wage
inflation is high on the list of enemies for the Federal Reserve. Fed
officials constantly monitor this data watching for even the smallest signs
of potential inflationary pressures, even when economic conditions are
soggy. If inflation is under control, it is easier for the Fed to maintain a
more accommodative monetary policy. If inflation is a problem, the Fed is
limited in providing economic stimulus.

By tracking the jobs data, investors can sense the degree of tightness in
the job market. If wage inflation threatens, it's a good bet that interest
rates will rise; bond and stock prices will fall. No doubt that the only
investors in a good mood will be the ones who watched the employment report
and adjusted their portfolios to anticipate these events. In contrast, when
job growth is slow or negative, then interest rates are likely to decline -
boosting up bond and stock prices in the process.
   Legal 
Notices|(c)
Copyright 2000 -2008 Econoday, Inc.

[obrolan-bandar] US Jobless Claims

[Tom DS]

*FYI... daripada bayar...*
**
**
*T.o.m*
**
*
-
*
**
 Jobless Claims
--
Released on 7/3/08 For wk 6/28 2008New Claims - Level
Consensus 385
K  *Actual* *404 K * Definition
New unemployment claims are compiled weekly to show the number of
individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time. An
increasing (decreasing) trend suggests a deteriorating (improving) labor
market. The four-week moving average of new claims smoothes out weekly
volatility.  Why Do Investors Care?
Jobless claims are an easy way to gauge the strength of the job market. The
fewer people filing for unemployment benefits, the more have jobs, and that
tells investors a great deal about the economy. Nearly every job comes with
an income that gives a household spending power. Spending greases the wheels
of the economy and keeps it growing, so a stronger job market generates a
healthier economy.

There's a downside to it, though. Unemployment claims, and therefore the
number of job seekers, can fall to such a low level that businesses have a
tough time finding new workers. They might have to pay overtime wages to
current staff, use higher wages to lure people from other jobs, and in
general spend more on labor costs because of a shortage of workers. This
leads to wage inflation, which is bad news for the stock and bond markets.
Federal Reserve officials are always on the look out for inflationary
pressures.

By tracking the number of jobless claims, investors can gain a sense of how
tight, or how loose, the job market is. If wage inflation threatens, it's a
good bet that interest rates will rise, bond and stock prices will fall, and
the only investors in a good mood will be the ones who tracked jobless
claims and adjusted their portfolios to anticipate these events.

Just remember, the lower the number of unemployment claims, the stronger the
job market, and vice versa.
   Legal 
Notices|(c)
Copyright 2000 -2008 Econoday, Inc.

[obrolan-bandar] ISM Non-Mfg Survey

[Tom DS]

*FYI*
**
**
*T.o.m*
**
*
---
*
**
 ISM Non-Mfg Survey
--
Released on 7/3/08 For Jun 2008Composite Index - Level
Consensus 51.0  *Actual* *48.2 *   2008 Release Schedule*Released On:*
1/4
2/5
3/5
4/3
5/5
6/4
7/3
8/5
9/4
10/3
11/5
12/3
*Released For:* Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov  Definition
The non-manufacturing ISM surveys nearly 400 firms from 60 sectors across
the United States, including agriculture, mining, construction,
transportation, communications, wholesale trade and retail trade. Beginning
with the January 2008 report, a new composite index was made public and is
now the headline number. It is considered an indicator of the overall
economic conditions for the non-manufacturing sector and consists of four
equally weighted indexes: business activity, new orders, employment, and
supplier deliveries.  Why Do Investors Care?
Investors need to keep their fingers on the pulse of the economy because it
dictates how various types of investments will perform. By tracking economic
data like the ISM non-manufacturing survey's business activity index,
investors will know what the economic backdrop is for the various markets.
The stock market likes to see healthy economic growth because that
translates to higher corporate profits. The bond market prefers less rapid
growth and is extremely sensitive to whether the economy is growing too
quickly-and causing potential inflationary pressures.

The ISM manufacturing index has a long history - dating to the 1940s. This
new report (beginning in 1998) was originally not adjusted for seasonal
variation, but the ISM has since established seasonally adjusted figures for
several of the ISM non-manufacturing components (including the business
activity index) since 2002 and a composite index starting in 2008. As a
result, the ISM non-manufacturing survey has garnered more attention and is
almost as widely followed by financial market participants as its
manufacturing cousin.
   Legal 
Notices|(c)
Copyright 2000 -2008 Econoday, Inc.

[obrolan-bandar] Supir FPNI nggak jadi narik hari ini...Gara-gara supirnya kepincut BUMI & beberapa CPOs di harga diskon... =p

[Tom DS]

*Banjir besar..*
**
*Supir FPNI nggak jadi narik hari ini... Gara-gara supirnya kepincut jeng
geulis yang namanya BUMI & beberapa CPOs di harga diskon... =p*
*Salut buat Pak TBumi buat lokomotifnya hari ini..!!!  Kelolaan dananya
kayanya gede banget...??*
*And many thanks to Pak TBumi for making this happened. Not bad for the
discount price =)*
**
*Pertunjukan sirkus nggak tertunda..Memang belum waktunya.. Siap2 saja...
Lap keuangan keluar nggak lama lagi kan.*
**
**
*T.o.m*

[obrolan-bandar] Iran says 'more than enough' oil on world markets

[Tom DS]

*FYI*
**
**
*T.o.m*

--


  Iran says 'more than enough' oil on world markets

Madrid (Platts)--2Jul2008

World oil markets are well supplied and there is no need for additional
crude, Iranian oil minister Gholamhossein Nozari said Wednesday.

 Speaking to reporters on the sidelines of the World Petroleum Congress in
Madrid, Nozari was asked whether Iran intended to raise its oil production as
Saudi Arabia had done recently.

 "We have some spare capacity, but at the same time there is no need for
more supply in the market," he said.

 But Nozari expressed concern about the current high prices, which on
Monday soared to new records of $143.91/barrel for North Sea Brent and
$143.67/b for US light crude futures.

 "The volatility of prices in the market is not good either for producers
or consumers," he said. "The $140/b we are seeing, part of it is due to the
developing trend of the dollar it looks like we have no other choice but
to see high oil prices," he said.

 "I believe the price of oil should be based on what the fundamentals of
the market dictate. But nowadays we are not seeing enough demand but more than
enough supply," he said.

 "One of the reasons for the high prices is the shortage of investment [in
capacity expansion] for many years," he said.

 Nozari expressed concern about the world's ability to maintain enough
spare crude production capacity in the future, lamenting the lack of
sufficient investment in the past.

 Asked whether he agreed with the International Energy Agency's prediction
on Tuesday that OPEC's effective spare capacity could fall to as little as 1
million b/d in 2013, Nozari said: "Not investing enough in oil-rich countries
might have this consequence," Nozari said, "especially in the years you refer
to, because many of these countries are going to be net importers."

 Nozari downplayed any suggestion of a US or Israeli attack on Iran,
although he said that if attacked, "Iran is not going to be quiet, it is going
to react."

 "We don't think the wise people in the world even think of an action like
that," he said.

 Nozari did not respond directly when asked whether Iran would stop its
exports if attacked. He said, however, that Iran had always been a reliable
supplier and intended to remain so.

 "Iran has been always a reliable supplier to the market and Iran remains
a reliable supplier forever," he said.

 The single biggest daily increase in oil prices--nearly $11/barrel--came
last month following reports of possible military action against Iran, OPEC's
second biggest producer after Saudi Arabia, with exports of around 2.7 million
b/d.

 Earlier this week, prices soared to new records of $143.91/barrel for
North Sea Brent and $143.67/b for US light crude futures, but were back around
$141.25-141.38/bbl at 1048 GMT on Wednesday.

For similar news, request a free trial to Platts Oilgram News at
http://www.platts.com/Request%20More%20Information/index.xml?src=story
or subscribe now
athttp://www.platts.com/infostore/product_info.php?cPath=1_29&products_id=29

[obrolan-bandar] Crude oil inventories (weekly change)

[Tom DS]

*FYI*
**
**
*T.o.m*
**
**
**
EIA Petroleum Status Report
--
Released on 7/2/08 For wk 6/27 2008Crude oil inventories (weekly
change)  *Actual* *-2.0 M barrels * Definition
The Energy Information Administration (EIA) provides weekly information on
petroleum inventories in the U.S., whether produced here or abroad. The
level of inventories helps determine prices for petroleum products.  Why Do
Investors Care?
Petroleum product prices are determined by supply and demand - just like any
other good and service. During periods of strong economic growth, one would
expect demand to be robust. If inventories are low, this will lead to
increases in crude oil prices - or price increases for a wide variety of
petroleum products such as gasoline or heating oil. If inventories are high
and rising in a period of strong demand, prices may not need to increase at
all, or as much. During a period of sluggish economic activity, demand for
crude oil may not be as strong. If inventories are rising, this may push
down oil prices.

Crude oil is an important commodity in the global market. Prices fluctuate
depending on supply and demand conditions in the world. Since oil is such an
important part of the economy, it can also help determine the direction of
inflation. In the U.S. consumer prices have moderated whenever oil prices
have fallen, but have accelerated when oil prices have risen.
   Legal 
Notices|(c)
Copyright 2000 -2008 Econoday, Inc.

Re: Another war, was :Re: [obrolan-bandar] Re: Boyz said "Please forgive me"

[Tom DS]

*Urusan rumah tangga nih kayanya... Jangan diganggu boss...*
**
**
*T.o.m*


On 7/3/08, Halim Mintareja <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
>
>   Mn..ada perang-perang mini di OB
>
> artinya apa ya ??
>
> tahu sendirilah..kalau perang sampai meluas di OB market biasanya gimana
>
> lol
>
> On Wed, Jul 2, 2008 at 6:33 PM, boyz <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
>
>> Maksudnya apa yah?
>> That's April, 12 2008...  three months ago...
>>
>> As far as i remember, i already did that.
>> http://finance.groups.yahoo.com/group/obrolan-bandar/message/75738
>>
>> and some of members responded that...
>> http://finance.groups.yahoo.com/group/obrolan-bandar/message/75748
>> http://finance.groups.yahoo.com/group/obrolan-bandar/message/75749
>>
>> I'm sure you have 'catch' that...
>> Jadi mo buka-bukaan nih?
>> gw boleh juga gak buka private mail elaine yg ditujukan ke gw and open
>> it to milis?
>>
>> Salam,
>>
>>
>> --- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, "Elaine Sui"
>>
>> <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
>> >
>> > *Sry for the late reply. Boyz harus announce di public so I can be
>> sure you
>> > mean it. Anyway, US mining stocks had deep correction last night, so..
>> >
>> > Elaine**
>> > *
>>
>> > On Sat, Apr 12, 2008 at 9:55 PM, boyz [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:
>> >
>> > > [image:
>> Bouquet]
>> > >
>>
>> > > Please Forgive Me ...
>> > >
>> > >
>> > >
>> > >
>> > > - Original Message 
>>
>> > > From: Elaine [EMAIL PROTECTED]
>> > > To: boyz [EMAIL PROTECTED]
>> > > Cc: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com
>> > > Sent: Saturday, 12 April 2008 11:27:54
>> > > Subject: Becareful when opening a web link
>> > >
>> > > *Look at this, boyz semangat sekali cari IP Elaine... social
>> engineering..
>> > > Becareful dengan email seperti ini, you can get infected with VIRUS.
>> That's
>> > > so evil, boyz. SO EVIL. Elaine tadinya hampir percaya Boyz orang
>> baik,
>> > > ternyata Elaine salah. Tsk..
>> > >
>> > > No wonder, banyak expert yang tidak comfort di OB, it's likely that
>> YOU are
>> > > the ONE who trespassed their privacy. What a shame. Are you the one
>> who
>> > > junked OB lately? Sent spoof emails? used multiple IDs? I am able to
>> > > analyize writing pattern and it's likely that they are written by a
>> same
>> > > person.
>> > >
>> > > WHAT A SHAME!!
>> > > *
>> > >
>> > >
>> > > --
>> > >
>> > > Search. browse and
>>
>> book
>> om>your hotels and flights through Yahoo! Travel
>> > >
>> >
>>
>>
>>
>> 
>>
>> + +
>> + + + + +
>> Mohon saat meREPLY posting, text dari posting lama dihapus
>> kecuali diperlukan agar CONTEXTnya jelas.
>> + + + + +
>>
>> + +Yahoo! Groups Links
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>
> 
>

Re: [obrolan-bandar] Re: Salah satu rombongan sirkus CPO siap-siap ya....

[Tom DS]

*Ya memang CPO mayoritas OK semua, tapi ada satu yang saya lihat lumayan di
atas ekspektasi. Kalau Tunas Perawan Lampung itu akhir-akhir ini banyak naik
juga karena rubber dia (selain isu corporate action).*
**
**
*T.o.m*


On 7/2/08, jos_martino <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
>
>   Kalo LK Q2 CPO ya semua bagus wong harga TBS masih tinggi. Cuma
> pertanyaannya kapan keluarnya?
> Sementara BUMI merah terus, CPO ya ikutan dulu.
> Tetapi koq Finance + telkom naik terus ya...he..he..he
>
> --- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com ,
> "Tom DS" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
> wrote:
> >
> > *Yang jelas bukan Tunas Perawan Lampung Perawan susah diajak
> goyang
> > cepet... =)*
> > **
> > **
> > *T.o.m*
> >
> >
> > On 7/2/08, Vincent Chase <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
> > >
> > > sgro mah maennya selalu di bulan tertentu, bukan sekarang
> > >
> > > silahkan pilih tbla,lsip,aali,atogzco
> > >
> > > *Irawan Sudarman <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>* wrote:
> > >
> > > LSIP n SGRO ?
> > >
> > > 2008/7/2 nauli <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>:
> > >
> > >> Kemungkinan tuh 3 eminten yang jalan di tempat TBLA, GZCO,
> dan UNSP.
> > >> jadi silakan di pilih mau yang mana satu
> > >>
> > >>
> > >> Danny Chang wrote:
> > >> >
> > >> > >>> TBLA kah ??
> > >> >
> > >> >
> > >> >
> > >> >
> > >> >
> > >> > --- On *Tue, 7/1/08, Tom DS /<[EMAIL PROTECTED] 40gmail.com>>/*
> > >> wrote:
> > >> >
> > >> > From: Tom DS <[EMAIL PROTECTED] >
> > >> > Subject: [obrolan-bandar] Salah satu rombongan sirkus CPO
> > >> > siap-siap ya
> > >> > To: 
> > >> > obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com 40yahoogroups.com>,
> > >> [EMAIL PROTECTED]   40yahoogroups.com>,
> > >> > [EMAIL PROTECTED]  40yahoogroups.com>,
> > >> [EMAIL PROTECTED]  40yahoogroups.com>
> > >> > Date: Tuesday, July 1, 2008, 8:43 PM
> > >> >
> > >> > /Salahsatu rombongan sirkus CPO siap-siap ya dalam 1-2 minggu
> > >> > ini Ada yang mau ngeluarin laporan keuangan fantastis
> juga./
> > >> > //
> > >> > /Emang harus sabar dulu sejenak, sebulan terakhir ini masih
> > >> > sukanya poco-poco menari di tempat, tapi kan sebentar lagi
> berangkat./
> > >> > //
> > >> > //
> > >> > */T.o.m/*
> > >> >
> > >> >
> > >> >
> > >>
> > >>
> > >>
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> >
>
> 
>

Re: [obrolan-bandar] Re: Mbah cenayang,mohon diteropong u group Panin

[Tom DS]

*Trully, saya cukup pesimis sama Panin Group. Macam-macam saja masalahnya.
Tapi kalau mau hold 3 yrs lagi mungkin ada titik rebound setelah
gunjang-ganjing minyak reda. Tapi untuk short to mid term, if I may suggest,
better switch to another sector...*
**
**
*T.o.m*


On 7/2/08, bw_lauw <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
>
>   --- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com ,
> "Tom DS" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
> wrote:
> >
> > *Hahahaha... Jadi ketawa beneran nih saya.. =D*
> > *Kan saya pernah bilang, saya itu lulusan dari Fakultas CENAYANG-
> OLOGI
> > Jurusan Stockmarket... =)*
> > **
> > *Sebenarnya semua analis pasti bisa kalkulasi itu, cuma masalahnya
> > perhatiannya pada ke distract sama yang lain, entah itu BUMI, atau
> TLKM,
> > atau HEXA... Iya nggak??*
> > **
> > **
> > *T.o.m*
> >
> >
> >
> > On 7/1/08, abdulrahim abdulrahim <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
> > >
> > > Soalnya kayaknya pak TOM bukan orang dalem.
> > > Jadi panas2in dikit biar keluar ilmunya hehehe
> > > Gak ding. Pak TOM selama ini sepertinya sering share. Jadi kita
> tunggu
> > > aja jawaban pak TOM, beliau dapet info dari mana.
> > >
> > > 2008/7/1 Salomo Gaol <[EMAIL PROTECTED] >:
> > > > wah pak abdul kok nanyanya orang dalem gitu sih.
> > > > ndak etis to pak. itu namanya insider trading. cukup tanya aja
> gimana
> > > bisa
> > > > yakin tp jangan singgung2 orang dalem ato apa tooo
> > > >
> > > > Salam,
> > > >
> > > > SLG
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > On 7/1/08, abdulrahim abdulrahim
> <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
> > > wrote:
> > > >>
> > > >> pak tom bisa ebalorate dikit koq yaqin fpni bakal genit gitu.
> padahal
> > > >> khan lap q2 blm kluar. bpk org dalem atau gimana? tx
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > --
> > > > http://www.flickr.com/photos/[EMAIL PROTECTED]/
> > >
> > >
> >
>
>
> salah satu anak pershn panin group yg kinerjanya paling ok adalah
> AMAG,tp kok malah paling memble mbah Tom,kira2 masa dpnnya gmn ya?
> soalnya sdh nyangkut setahun nih,tq sblmnya
>
> 
>

[obrolan-bandar] Mantab nggak FPNI nya??? Besok tunggu gosip jalanan dulu ya.....

[Tom DS]

*Gimana, pada puas semua mainan FPNI nya???*
**
*Akhirnya si supir yang bawa FPNI udah istirahat Abis nubruk stasiun 300
udah sempet istirahat & mundur dulu di 275... Ternyata bempernya belum
penyokk... Jadi bisa hajar lagi... Soal ngehajar laginya sih so pasti,
tapi sampe ke stasiun berapanya tergantung gosip jalanan.*
*Lumayan istirahat sebentar ngopi sama jajan tahu isi.. =)*
**
*Dia sambil nunggu gosip jalanan Budiono yang mau ngasih bonus kalo ada
bunga naik cuma 25 bps jadi 8.75%. Kalo itu kejadian, si supir punya tenaga
baru ngejar ke stasiun terdekat di 330. Kalau raport Q2 udah keluar baru
boleh bawa truk lagi sambil kabur + mabok berat lagi hajar abis-abisan
Akhir tahun minimal numpang lewat di 490 abis itu melaju lagi perlahan tapi
pasti sambil nunggu gosip dari tukang minyak sama si raja minyak yang mau
jadi kompetitornya di Asia Pasifik kaya gimana.*
**
*Oiya, kalo gosip jalanannya Budiono lebih dari 25 bps, katanya dia
nariknya nggak mau kenceng2... mau nangkring ke 305an aja dulu, soalnya
energinya nggak cukup... Tapi angin segar dari Q2 masih tetep bisa kasih
extra Jo tambahan. Namanya juga supir mabok... Harap maklum...*
**
**
*T.o.m*

Re: [obrolan-bandar] Salah satu rombongan sirkus CPO siap-siap ya....

[Tom DS]

*Yang jelas bukan Tunas Perawan Lampung Perawan susah diajak goyang
cepet... =)*
**
**
*T.o.m*


On 7/2/08, Vincent Chase <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
>
>sgro mah maennya selalu di bulan tertentu, bukan sekarang
>
> silahkan pilih tbla,lsip,aali,atogzco
>
> *Irawan Sudarman <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>* wrote:
>
>  LSIP n SGRO ?
>
> 2008/7/2 nauli <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>:
>
>>   Kemungkinan tuh 3 eminten yang jalan di tempat TBLA, GZCO, dan UNSP.
>> jadi silakan di pilih mau yang mana satu
>>
>>
>> Danny Chang wrote:
>> >
>> > >>> TBLA kah ??
>> >
>> >
>> >
>> >
>> >
>> > --- On *Tue, 7/1/08, Tom DS /<[EMAIL 
>> > PROTECTED]>/*
>> wrote:
>> >
>> > From: Tom DS <[EMAIL PROTECTED] >
>> > Subject: [obrolan-bandar] Salah satu rombongan sirkus CPO
>> > siap-siap ya
>> > To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com ,
>> [EMAIL PROTECTED] ,
>> > [EMAIL PROTECTED] ,
>> [EMAIL PROTECTED] 
>> > Date: Tuesday, July 1, 2008, 8:43 PM
>> >
>> > /Salahsatu rombongan sirkus CPO siap-siap ya dalam 1-2 minggu
>> > ini Ada yang mau ngeluarin laporan keuangan fantastis juga./
>> > //
>> > /Emang harus sabar dulu sejenak, sebulan terakhir ini masih
>> > sukanya poco-poco menari di tempat, tapi kan sebentar lagi berangkat./
>> > //
>> > //
>> > */T.o.m/*
>> >
>> >
>> >
>>
>>
>>
>
>
>  
>

[obrolan-bandar] Salah satu rombongan sirkus CPO siap-siap ya....

[Tom DS]

*Salahsatu rombongan sirkus CPO siap-siap ya dalam 1-2 minggu ini Ada
yang mau ngeluarin laporan keuangan fantastis juga.*
**
*Emang harus sabar dulu sejenak, sebulan terakhir ini masih sukanya
poco-poco menari di tempat, tapi kan sebentar lagi berangkat.*
**
**
*T.o.m*

Re: [obrolan-bandar] Renyah nggak FPNI nya? Besok mau gimana?

[Tom DS]

*Hahahaha... Jadi ketawa beneran nih saya.. =D*
*Kan saya pernah bilang, saya itu lulusan dari Fakultas CENAYANG-OLOGI
Jurusan Stockmarket... =)*
**
*Sebenarnya semua analis pasti bisa kalkulasi itu, cuma masalahnya
perhatiannya pada ke distract sama yang lain, entah itu BUMI, atau TLKM,
atau HEXA... Iya nggak??*
**
**
*T.o.m*



On 7/1/08, abdulrahim abdulrahim <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
>
>   Soalnya kayaknya pak TOM bukan orang dalem.
> Jadi panas2in dikit biar keluar ilmunya hehehe
> Gak ding. Pak TOM selama ini sepertinya sering share. Jadi kita tunggu
> aja jawaban pak TOM, beliau dapet info dari mana.
>
> 2008/7/1 Salomo Gaol <[EMAIL PROTECTED] >:
> > wah pak abdul kok nanyanya orang dalem gitu sih.
> > ndak etis to pak. itu namanya insider trading. cukup tanya aja gimana
> bisa
> > yakin tp jangan singgung2 orang dalem ato apa tooo
> >
> > Salam,
> >
> > SLG
> >
> >
> > On 7/1/08, abdulrahim abdulrahim <[EMAIL 
> > PROTECTED]>
> wrote:
> >>
> >> pak tom bisa ebalorate dikit koq yaqin fpni bakal genit gitu. padahal
> >> khan lap q2 blm kluar. bpk org dalem atau gimana? tx
> >
> >
> >
> > --
> > http://www.flickr.com/photos/[EMAIL PROTECTED]/
> 
>

[obrolan-bandar] Renyah nggak FPNI nya? Besok mau gimana?

[Tom DS]

*Ehm ehm*
**
*Gimana FPNI nya, renyah nggak tadi*
**
*Cuma tadi kecepetan, supirnya mabuk berat. Minum 5 botol, sampe nubruk
stasiun 300...*
*Jadi besok sampai jumat supir mau mundurin kendaraan dulu mau ngeliat dulu
bempernya hancur nggak =)*
**
*Tapi tenang, 3 minggu lagi masih panjang... Laporan Q2 aja belum keluar...
Ati2, jangan kekencengan...*
**
*H Kata supirnya dia ngeliat terminal akhir tahun 490 tuh... Dia
udah pake kacamata belum ya? Kurang gede nggak ya?   =)*
**
**
*T.o.m*

Re: [obrolan-bandar] Re: Penumpang ASII udah pada naik semua belum ???

[Tom DS]

*Hahaha...*
**
*Kan penumpangnya udah banyak yang turun... Yg sisa cuma yg pada ngehindarin
debt collector di depan kereta yg nagihin kalo pake margin... hehehe...*
*Ada lagi, sama yang emang tujuannya masih panjang di 27000an ato emang hobi
naek kereta sampe 3-5tahun lagi =)*
**
**
*T.o.m*


On 6/30/08, Paulus Tangke Allo <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
>
>   hehehe...kereta-nya cuma 2 gerbong makanya larinya cepet.
> tapi karena tempatnya gak muat, mau gak mau, mesti nurunin penumpang
> gelap dulu :D
>
> --pta
>
> On 6/30/08, Pemain Mini <[EMAIL PROTECTED] >
> wrote:
> >
> >
> > kok gak ikutan kereta JPRS saja ??
> > ngapain nungguin saham2 gak jelas seperti ASII, ANTM, PGAS, UNTR,
> dll..
> > semua saham yg lagi goblok2 nya tuh supirnya.
> 
>

Re: [obrolan-bandar] Re: tlkm

[Tom DS]

*7200-7300 is very good Moreover, Rp407.15/share for total devidend
would be more than enough... *
*
Yeahhh. but we have to trade off with its loss expansion opportunity.
So, theoretically, its growth would be only 11.43% (ROE x Retained
Earnings/Net Income = 38.1% x 30%) compare to 2007 despite of more and more
market competition in telecomunication industry...
After downgraded the competition factors & slowing economy, perhaps TLKM
growth in 2008 compared to 2007 would be only around 6.2-7.5%. But if you
guys an opportunist swing traders, TLKM at 7200-7300 is not bad, just take
the dividend. =)


* **
*T.o.m*


On 6/30/08, swan silo <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
>
>...simpuln...tlkm plg mntb di 70006900 pun ok..
>
>
> - Original Message 
> From: boyz <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
> To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com
> Sent: Monday, June 30, 2008 7:31:16 PM
> Subject: [obrolan-bandar] Re: tlkm
>
>  --- In obrolan-bandar@ yahoogroups. com, "hendrik_lwww" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> 
> wrote:
> >
> > --- In obrolan-bandar@ yahoogroups. com, "Prasetyo, Hani"
> > Hani.Prasetyo@ wrote:
> > >
> > > Not yet...Entry point 6500...
> >
> > SIP : HENDRIK
> > mine is 6000
> >
>
>
> Pada kebangetan ini nawarnya, hehehe...
> Kayak ibu-2 lagi belanja aja, nawarnya 'ngejatuhin' bener, [image: :p]
>
> 7.000  aja deh... harga pas [image: :D]
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> 
>

[obrolan-bandar] Re: [saham] Watch FPNI in the next 3 weeks...

[Tom DS]

*Kan Q1 masih merugi karena masih pakai laporan fatrapolindo sebelum mereka
akuisisi & ganti nama jadi Titan Kimia Nusantara.*
*Trust me on thisyou guys will see really amazing result. Simpan email
saya sekarang ini, kita lihat setelah mereka submit financial statements
*
**
**
*T.o.m*



On 6/30/08, Ari Sugiarto Santoso <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
>
> Are you sure, Pak Tom?
> Saya lihat sampai Q1 2008 FPNI masih merugi.
> Apa Q2 ini ada net profit? Estimasi PER nya berapa Q2 ini?
>
> Thanks sarannya buat PGAS. Besok saya coba buy ASII apabila dapat diskon.
> Meski terus terang saya pesimis penjualan otomotif bisa naik (atau minimal
> stagnant) krn harga BBM & suku bunga yg tinggi.
>
> Ada pendapat mengenai sektor semen & konstruksi, Pak Tom? Top pick saya di
> WIKA & SMGR.
>
> Thank you,
>
>
>  On 6/30/08, Tom DS <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
>
>>*Speculative buy on good fundamental stocks but never been caught by
>> bandar, or even EL & Mbah*
>> *Just wait until FPNI's Q2 financial statement released, and prepare for
>> rally.*
>> **
>> **
>> *T.o.m*
>>
>> 
>>
>
>

Re: [obrolan-bandar] Re: Penumpang ASII udah pada naik semua belum ???

[Tom DS]

*Kayanya supirnya bakal pake jurus dewa mabok.*
*Makanya ngebut... =)*
**
**
*T.o.m*


On 6/30/08, hendrik_lwww <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
>
>   --- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com ,
> "Juragan Cumi" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
> wrote:
> >
> > Nyari tiket diskon belum dapet euy. 19,100 gak dapet, 19 pas apalagi
> >
> > Salam,
> > Cumi-cumi segar enak lezaat bergizi
> >
> SIP : HENDRIK
> weleh2 masih kurang diskon tuh pak..
> turbo udah diisi NOS juga...
> bahkan Kripton pun juga udah diisi...
>
> tinggal distater ama supirnya aja.. langsug terbang... ^^
>
> 
>

[obrolan-bandar] Penumpang ASII udah pada naik semua belum ???

[Tom DS]

*Dear OB-ers,*
**
*Para penumpang ASII udah pada naik semua belum 
Kereta menuju stasiun terdekat 22000 yg melewati perhentian pertama di
stasiun 21000 siap2 jalan (kalau nggak ada halangan lampu merah inflasi
besok).*
*Perhentian akhir tahun di 27000-28000 siap menunggu.*
**
**
*T.o.m*

[obrolan-bandar] Watch FPNI in the next 3 weeks...

[Tom DS]

*Speculative buy on good fundamental stocks but never been caught by bandar,
or even EL & Mbah*
*Just wait until FPNI's Q2 financial statement released, and prepare for
rally.*
**
**
*T.o.m*

Re: [obrolan-bandar] Warning on inflation news --adjust calculation

[Tom DS]

*Sorry for the late reply EL..*
**
*What I meant is, when inflation hit more than 12.3% you need to downgrade
some (or most) of your stocks price target. And chance to go rally in July
probably will be delayed waiting for July inflation next month. Horrible
isn't it??*
**
*But it is also depends on what government action will be, how much is the
assumption of oil price & oil production in APBN 2009, and how much is
inflation target from government in 2009. Also we need to watch carefully
how Astra's domestic business (esp. sales) in car (esp. Toyota) and in
motorcycle (Astra Honda Motor). Those issues will determine how much did the
buying power had deteriorated.*
**
**
*T.o.m*


On 6/29/08, Elaine Sui <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
>
>   *You mean, be greedy when the market is in panic?
>
> Elaine* *
> *
> On Sun, Jun 29, 2008 at 1:29 AM, Tom DS <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
>
>>  *One more time, warning... pls watch carefully on Tuesday inflation
>> news. Be carefull when it hit more than 12.3%...*
>> **
>> *All calculation that had been priced-in should be re-adjusted.*
>> **
>> **
>> *T.o.m*
>>
>
> 
>

Re: [obrolan-bandar] Angin Segar Untuk Telkom ?

[Tom DS]

*Yup... correct...*
**
*That's why, if you want to invest in TLKM, you need to invest more than 3
yrs, unless, you need to speculate in 5-15 days trading time horizon. If you
put your money and buy TLKM hoping for 1yr profit from capital gain like in
2006 or 2007, just forget it.*
**
**
*T.o.m*


On 6/29/08, Ajo Ramon <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
>
>Agree,,,but bear in mind, TLKM masih bearish berat, jadi style trading
> pun berbeda,,,nama ilmunya adalah TRADE THE BEAR.
>
> - Original Message 
> From: Tom DS <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
> To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com
> Sent: Sunday, June 29, 2008 12:21:02 AM
> Subject: Re: [obrolan-bandar] Angin Segar Untuk Telkom ?
>
>  *My comment, if you can get opportunity to buy at 7200-7300, don't waste
> it..*
> **
> **
> *T.o.m*
>
>
> On 6/28/08, Kucing Tua >
> wrote:
>>
>> membaca sekilas dari website. apa benar selama ini telkom untungnya
>> segitu gede? tapi kok  sahamnya trend down, dan ga pernah bangun...
>>
>> bagaimana pendapat saudara sekalian?
>>
>> http://www.indosaha m.co.cc/2008/ 06/angin- segar-untuk- 
>> tlkm.html<http://www.indosaham.co.cc/2008/06/angin-segar-untuk-tlkm.html>
>>
>>
>
> 
>

[obrolan-bandar] Warning on inflation news --adjust calculation

[Tom DS]

*One more time, warning... pls watch carefully on Tuesday inflation news. Be
carefull when it hit more than 12.3%...*
**
*All calculation that had been priced-in should be re-adjusted.*
**
**
*T.o.m*

Re: Bls: [obrolan-bandar] aali

[Tom DS]

*Actually it really depends on how long is your time horizon.*
**
*Kalau saya punya 100 (cash), pertama-tama saya akan invest 70% untuk
long-term (more than 3yrs with review on quarterly basis), sisanya (30%)
saya akan trading 5-15 hari (saya jarang sekali daily trade coz the risks
usually higher than rewards, and I'm not really good in speculating).*
**
*Dari 70% long-term, saya pecah 20% untuk ANTM, 20% untuk CPOs, 15% untuk
Coal Miners, dan 15% untuk infrastructure & consumer goods (saya prefer UNVR
rather than INDF).*
**
*Entry price mungkin lebih cocok untuk yang short-term, karena untuk
long-term saat ini sebagian besar sudah benar2 murah (but anyhow cheap is
relative)
Entry price (utk short term 5-15 hari) yang saat ini cukup menarik adalah
untuk ANTM di 3150-3200. TLKM di 7200-7300. ASII di 19200-19400. AALI
28000-28500. *
**
**
*T.o.m*




On 6/29/08, Rookie Kabu <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
>
>Dear Mr. Tom
>
>
>
> Seandainya punya 100 (cash), bagaimana sebaiknya pola masuk (one time atau
> averaging up) dan bobot sharing (mana yg weight % lebih besar) serta entry
> price range untuk ketiga saham yg Mr. Tom rekomendasikan? Bisa dishare
> sedikit berikut ulasan singkat?
>
> Rgds
>  - Pesan Asli 
> Dari: Tom DS <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
> Kepada: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com
> Terkirim: Sabtu, 28 Juni, 2008 22:56:03
> Topik: Re: [obrolan-bandar] aali
>
>  *OK bos..*
> **
> *Sebenarnya kalau AALI saya sangat recommend untuk long-term,
> fundamentalnya sangat bagus. Kalaupun short-term yah paling kalau ada wave
> kaya minggu ini & minggu depan saja. Karena kalau lagi ada wave, spread
> High-Low nya AALI cukup besar.*
> **
> *Selamat cuan kalau begitu. Kalau mau play short-term 5-10 harian, next
> week watch ASII & ANTM OK*
> **
> **
> *T.o.m*
>
>
> On 6/27/08, Dick Q > wrote:
>>
>>Sir, thanks for your advise about AALI.
>> sempat copet pagi tadi dan sell pd akhir sesi 2, for week end :)
>> belum berani hold utk hare gini.
>> sering2 bagi info Sir, supaya kita2 yg kecil ini bisa kebagian cuan juga.
>> cheers..
>>
>>
>> - Original Message -
>> *From:* Tom DS <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
>> *To:* obrolan-bandar@ yahoogroups. com 
>> *Sent:* Friday, June 27, 2008 1:04 PM
>> *Subject:* Re: [obrolan-bandar] aali
>>
>>
>> *Sorry Pak, as I already said earlier about AALI *
>> **
>> *Akan cukup sulit AALI turun di bawah 27700, support sangat kuat sekali
>> di 27700. Tapi trading range AALI untuk beberapa hari ini di 28000-28500
>> sebelum bungee jumping...*
>> **
>> **
>> *T.o.m*
>>
>>
>>
>>
>
> --
> Yahoo! Toolbar kini dilengkapi dengan Search Assist. Download sekarang
> juga.<http://sg.rd.yahoo.com/id/search/toolbar/mail/signature/*http://id.toolbar.yahoo.com/>
>
> 
>

Re: Bls: [obrolan-bandar] Re: BUY BUMI BUY ISAT hihihihi

[Tom DS]

*For US yes... For ID? I don't think so. *
**
*BEI weighted on commodity stocks...*
*You can also check our trade balance with US which only around 7-10%.*
*US slow economy indeed will impact China, and other country which really
depend on US for their main export target market. But we have already
diversified our export target.*
**
*When US growth downgraded by 66.66% (i.e World Bank downgraded 2008 US GDP
growth, from 1.5% in Jan 08 into 0.5% in Apr 08), then roughly it will only
impact ±10-15% of our GDP growth (i.e from projection in Jan 08 which is
6.2%, cut into around 5.7%).*
**
*But how about our commodities? The impact is not that bad since commodities
(esp. gas, CPO, rubber, coal, etc) positively contribute to our trade
balance as well as in BEI portfolio.*
**
*You guys can check the trends in www.bi.go.id for sure, as well as in
http://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/balance/c5600.html.*
**
**
*T.o.m*



On 6/28/08, Vincent Chase <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
>
>   repoter cnbc kemaren pada bilang YES we are officially in bear market...
> no point of holding your portfolio
>
> *Halim Mintareja <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>* wrote:
>
>  Haha...
>
> biasalah...market jelek..banyak orang stress.
>
> Anyway...memang market lagi downtrending. Lack of volume dan outflow terus
> tejadi
>
> Kalau dilihat dari moving average dan macd. IHSG butuh katalis volume
> jumbo. Taruhlan transaksi reguler market sekitar 5-6T untuk melepaskan diri
> dari downtrend ini.
>
> Untuk crash butuh volume.. untuk reverse trend juga butuh volume.
>
> Selama gak ada volume..IHSG saya rasa keep resume down trend dengan average
> weekly return sekitar minus 0.5-2%
>
> Disclaimer ya
> Halim
> 2008/6/27 boyz <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>:
>
>> Tadi siang sih sempat baca, and pingin reply...
>> tapi dipikir-pikir... aahhh gak penting tohhh.
>>
>> biasalah... emang dia suka gitu kalo lagi kumat.
>>
>> Salam,
>>
>>
>> --- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, Hubert Pras <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
>> wrote:
>> >
>> > Pak Boyz, What's your command for this ???
>> >
>> >
>> >
>> > - Pesan Asli 
>>
>> > Dari: Elaine Sui [EMAIL PROTECTED]
>>  > Kepada: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com
>> > Terkirim: Jumat, 27 Juni, 2008 12:37:54
>> > Topik: Re: [obrolan-bandar] Re: BUY BUMI BUY ISAT hihihihi
>> >
>> >
>> > Noobs kalau ada uang banyak boleh saja dari pada expert uang sedikit.
>> Kalau memang expert pasti tidak terpancing posting Elaine yesterday.
>> Where's Hendrik? Kang Ocoy? James? Embah? Rei? Dean? I think they're
>> smart enough by staying out of the market (or at least from OB)
>> >
>> > I was thinking that I'm gonna do that too but these noobs are so
>> tasty.
>> >
>> > Elaine
>> >
>> >
>> > On Fri, Jun 27, 2008 at 12:19 PM, Hendra Santosa [EMAIL PROTECTED]
>> net> wrote:
>> >
>> > Huehue Bu Elaine sekarang mainnya ma nubie2 ya Bu? Dulu katanya
>> > mainnya ama FM doang :)
>> >
>> > *nubie*
>> >
>> > --- In obrolan-bandar@ yahoogroups. com, "Elaine Sui"
>> >  wrote:
>> > >
>> > > *lol  gay market..  I told you traders
>> >
>> > please do
>> > > not intervene. Did you get stomped just now?
>> > >
>> > > Elaine**
>> > > *
>> > > On Fri, Jun 27, 2008 at 11:29 AM, Vincent Chase 
>> >
>> > > wrote:
>> > >
>> > > >  EL MBAH are you guys still hold hands go against the GAY market?
>> > > >
>> > > >
>> > > >
>> > >
>> >
>> >
>> >
>> >  - - --
>> >
>> > + +
>> > + + + + +
>> > Mohon saat meREPLY posting, text dari posting lama dihapus
>> > kecuali diperlukan agar CONTEXTnya jelas.
>> > + + + + +
>> > + +Yahoo! Groups Links
>> >
>> >
>> >
>> >
>> >
>> >
>> >
>> >
>>
>> \
>> ___
>> > Dapatkan nama yang Anda sukai!
>> > Sekarang Anda dapat memiliki email di @ymail.com dan @rocketmail.com.
>> > http://mail.promotions.yahoo.com/newdomains/id/
>> >
>>
>>
>>
>> 
>>
>> + +
>> + + + + +
>> Mohon saat meREPLY posting, text dari posting lama dihapus
>> kecuali diperlukan agar CONTEXTnya jelas.
>> + + + + +
>> + +Yahoo! Groups Links
>>
>>
>>mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED]
>> mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED]
>>
>>
>>
>
>
>  
>

Re: [obrolan-bandar] DOW Touch Supp Thn 2003

[Tom DS]

*Kan kita sudah ada OPTION, yang ngegagas pak Abraham Lembang,memang baru
ada 4 saham : ASII, BBCA, TLKM, INDF kalau tidak salah.*
**
**
*T.o.m*


On 6/28/08, -sAThya- <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
>
>  Dow Dow. How Low You Can Go..
>
> Dow mau sberapa dalam pun turun ,investor & trader di WS tdk khawatir
> mungkin ya !
>
> karena mreka protek dengan membeli OPTION saham nya. tapi bgm dgn nasib
> BEI.
>
> who gonna protect ??? " BANDAR YG NYANGKUT" kali. :-)) ya..
>
>
>
> SATH
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> 
>
>

Re: [obrolan-bandar] Angin Segar Untuk Telkom ?

[Tom DS]

*My comment, if you can get opportunity to buy at 7200-7300, don't waste
it..*
**
**
*T.o.m*


On 6/28/08, Kucing Tua <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
>
> membaca sekilas dari website. apa benar selama ini telkom untungnya
> segitu gede? tapi kok  sahamnya trend down, dan ga pernah bangun...
>
> bagaimana pendapat saudara sekalian?
>
> http://www.indosaham.co.cc/2008/06/angin-segar-untuk-tlkm.html
>
> 
>

[obrolan-bandar] Consumer Sentiment

[Tom DS]

*FYI..*
**
**
*T.o.m*
**
**
*
-
*
**
 Consumer Sentiment
--
Released on 6/27/08 For Jun 2008Sentiment Index - Level
Consensus 56.9  *Actual* *56.4 *   2008 Release Schedule*Released On:*
2/1
2/29
3/28
4/25
5/30
6/27
7/25
8/29
9/26
10/31
11/26
12/23
*Released For:* Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec  Definition
The University of Michigan's Consumer Survey Center questions 500 households
each month on their financial conditions and attitudes about the economy.
Consumer sentiment is directly related to the strength of consumer spending.
Consumer confidence and consumer sentiment are two ways of talking about
consumer attitudes. Among economic reports, consumer sentiment refers to the
Michigan survey while consumer confidence refers to The Conference Board's
survey.  Why Do Investors Care?
The pattern in consumer attitudes and spending is often the foremost
influence on stock and bond markets. For stocks, strong economic growth
translates to healthy corporate profits and higher stock prices. For bonds,
the focus is whether economic growth goes overboard and leads to inflation.
Ideally, the economy walks that fine line between strong growth and
excessive (inflationary) growth. This balance was achieved through much of
the nineties. For this reason alone, investors in the stock and bond markets
enjoyed huge gains during the bull market of the 1990s. Consumer confidence
did shift down in tandem with the equity market between 2000 and 2002 and
then recovered in 2003 and 2004. Consumers became more pessimistic in 2005
when gasoline prices surged.

Consumer spending accounts for more than two-thirds of the economy, so the
markets are always dying to know what consumers are up to and how they might
behave in the near future. The more confident consumers are about the
economy and their own personal finances, the more likely they are to spend.
With this in mind, it's easy to see how this index of consumer attitudes
gives insight to the direction of the economy. Just note that changes in
consumer confidence and retail sales don't move in tandem month by month.
   Legal 
Notices|(c)
Copyright 2000 -2008 Econoday, Inc.

[obrolan-bandar] Personal Income and Outlays

[Tom DS]

Personal Income and Outlays
--
Released on 6/27/08 For May 2008Personal Income - M/M change
Consensus 0.4 %  *Actual* *1.9 % * Consumer Spending - M/M change
Consensus 0.7 %  *Actual* *0.4 % *   2008 Release Schedule*Released On:*
1/31
2/29
3/28
5/1
5/30
6/27
8/4
8/29
9/29
10/31
11/26
12/24
*Released For:* Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov  Definition
Personal income is the dollar value of income received from all sources by
individuals. Personal outlays include consumer purchases of durable and
nondurable goods, and services.  Why Do Investors Care?
The income and outlays data are another handy way to gauge the strength of
the consumer sector in this economy and where it is headed. Income gives
households the power to spend and/or save. Spending greases the wheels of
the economy and keeps it growing. Savings are often invested in the
financial markets and can drive up the prices of stocks and bonds. Even if
savings simply go into a bank account, part of those funds are typically
used by the bank for lending and therefore contribute to economic activity.
In the past twenty years, personal savings have diminished rapidly as
consumers have spent a greater and greater share of their income.

The consumption (outlays) part of this report is even more directly tied to
the economy, which we know usually dictates how the markets perform.
Consumer spending accounts for more than two-thirds of the economy, so if
you know what consumers are up to, you'll have a pretty good handle on where
the economy is headed. Investors can see how consumers are directing their
spending, whether they are buying durable goods, nondurable goods or
services. Needless to say, that's a big advantage for investors who
determine which companies' shares they will buy.
   Legal 
Notices|(c)
Copyright 2000 -2008 Econoday, Inc.

Re: [obrolan-bandar] Fwd: METAL - Time to buy --> Info UNTR

[Tom DS]

*11200 sih retail trader nggak bakal kebagian... *
**
*Sebelum sampe situ udah disikat duluan sama AK. Justru jangan sampai
keduluan sama AK, kalau nggak salah sih buy target dia di 12000.*
**
**
*T.o.m*


On 6/27/08, Ricky Wakiman <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
>
>Wah,  asyik dong naik roller coaster. :-) Kalo turun lagi mentoknya di
> 10.200. Biasanya sih nggak lewat di bawah level itu.
>
> RW
>
>
> - Original Message -
> *From:* Vincent Chase <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
> *To:* obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com
>  *Sent:* Friday, June 27, 2008 2:14 PM
> *Subject:* [!! SPAM] Re: [obrolan-bandar] Fwd: METAL - Time to buy -->
> Info UNTR
>
>
>
> bisa jadi  di 11500 dah mentok. tp kalo pecah , siap siap aja roller
> coaster
>
> *Ricky Wakiman <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>* wrote:
>
>  Kalo nunggu di 11.200 terlalu rendah & gak bakal dapet ya, Uncle Tom?
>
> RW
>
>
> - Original Message -
> *From:* Tom DS <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
> *To:* obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com
> *Sent:* Friday, June 27, 2008 1:01 PM
> *Subject:* [!! SPAM] [obrolan-bandar] Fwd: METAL - Time to buy --> Info
> UNTR
>
>
>  *Sekalian info buat temen2 OB lainnya ttg UNTR, krn kemarin ada yg
> tanya...*
> **
> **
> *T.o.m*
>
>
> -- Forwarded message --
> From: Tom DS <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
> Date: Jun 26, 2008 9:24 PM
> Subject: Re: METAL - Time to buy --> Info UNTR
> To: "J. Harry Dhamo" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
>
>
> *UNTR lagi mau di downgrade sama Goldman Sachs kalo nggak salah ke 1
> sekian. But this is very impossible
> Dia punya support kuat di 11900, ini agak sulit ditembus since besar sekali
> volume yg beli di average 11800an...*
> **
> *Fundamentally fair price nya per akhir bulan ini (atau per 1st Half Year)
> sekitar Rp 12800-13200/share. Belum lagi selain Tuah Turangga yg awal tahu
> ini diakuisisi (UNTR dapet windfall profit dari kenaikan batubara juga),
> UNTR ada rencana akuisisi tambang batubara yg lumayan bisa mendongkrak
> penjualan mereka. Jangan lupa, cashnya UNTR masih sekitar Rp 730 Bio per Q1
> 2008 kemarin (meski turun sekitar 300 Bio dari Q4 2007 tapi ini wajar karena
> dipake utk akuisisi Tuah Turangga), masih cukup untuk working capital &
> untuk sebagian dana akuisisi tambang batubara lainnya itu. Kalau forecast
> saya nggak keliru, 1st Half Year dia bisa record net income Rp 1100 Bio.*
> **
> *So for long term investor > 1 yr, TIME TO BUY.*
> **
> **
> *T.o.m*
>
>
> On 6/26/08, J. Harry Dhamo <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
>>
>> --- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, "Tom DS" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
>> >
>> > *More specific Eat ANTM !!*
>> > **
>> > **
>> > *T.o.m*
>> >
>> >
>> > On 6/26/08, Jack Cowok <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
>> > >
>> > >
>> > >
>> > > Now the time to eat METAL
>> > >
>> > >
>> > >
>> > >
>> > >
>> > > Salam
>> > >
>> > > JACK
>> > >
>>
>> Benar Tom DS, info anda emang moy..eyy, and what about UNTR??
>>
>>
>
>  
>

Re: [obrolan-bandar] aali

[Tom DS]

*OK bos..*
**
*Sebenarnya kalau AALI saya sangat recommend untuk long-term, fundamentalnya
sangat bagus. Kalaupun short-term yah paling kalau ada wave kaya minggu ini
& minggu depan saja. Karena kalau lagi ada wave, spread High-Low nya AALI
cukup besar.*
**
*Selamat cuan kalau begitu. Kalau mau play short-term 5-10 harian, next week
watch ASII & ANTM OK*
**
**
*T.o.m*


On 6/27/08, Dick Q <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
>
>Sir, thanks for your advise about AALI.
> sempat copet pagi tadi dan sell pd akhir sesi 2, for week end :)
> belum berani hold utk hare gini.
> sering2 bagi info Sir, supaya kita2 yg kecil ini bisa kebagian cuan juga.
> cheers.
>
>
> ----- Original Message -
> *From:* Tom DS <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
> *To:* obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com
> *Sent:* Friday, June 27, 2008 1:04 PM
> *Subject:* Re: [obrolan-bandar] aali
>
>
> *Sorry Pak, as I already said earlier about AALI *
> **
> *Akan cukup sulit AALI turun di bawah 27700, support sangat kuat sekali di
> 27700. Tapi trading range AALI untuk beberapa hari ini di 28000-28500
> sebelum bungee jumping...*
> **
> **
> *T.o.m*
>
>
>
> 
>

[obrolan-bandar] Watch out for inflation >12.3%...................

[Tom DS]

*Watch out when inflation on June yoy more than 12.3%.*
**
**
*T.o.m*

Re: [obrolan-bandar] Fwd: METAL - Time to buy --> Info UNTR

[Tom DS]

*11200*
**
*Jangankan segitu, kalau dibawah 11900 saja dana besar saya bakal saya hajar
ke UNTR sampe pada nggak kebagian.. Hahaha (hiperbola)...*
**
**
*T.o.m*




On 6/27/08, Prasetyo, Hani <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
>
>11200 – 11700 is good for entry point….. for investor only…
>  --
>
> *From:* obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com [mailto:
> [EMAIL PROTECTED] *On Behalf Of *Tom DS
> *Sent:* Friday, June 27, 2008 1:01 PM
> *To:* obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com
> *Subject:* [obrolan-bandar] Fwd: METAL - Time to buy --> Info UNTR
>
>
>
> *Sekalian info buat temen2 OB lainnya ttg UNTR, krn kemarin ada yg
> tanya...*
>
>
>
>
>
> *T.o.m*
>
>
>
> -- Forwarded message --
> From: *Tom DS* <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
> Date: Jun 26, 2008 9:24 PM
> Subject: Re: METAL - Time to buy --> Info UNTR
> To: "J. Harry Dhamo" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
>
>
>
> *UNTR lagi mau di downgrade sama Goldman Sachs kalo nggak salah ke 1
> sekian. But this is very impossible**
> Dia punya support kuat di 11900, ini agak sulit ditembus since besar sekali
> volume yg beli di average 11800an...*
>
>
>
> *Fundamentally fair price nya per akhir bulan ini (atau per 1st Half Year)
> sekitar Rp 12800-13200/share. Belum lagi selain Tuah Turangga yg awal tahu
> ini diakuisisi (UNTR dapet windfall profit dari kenaikan batubara juga),
> UNTR ada rencana akuisisi tambang batubara yg lumayan bisa mendongkrak
> penjualan mereka. Jangan lupa, cashnya UNTR masih sekitar Rp 730 Bio per Q1
> 2008 kemarin (meski turun sekitar 300 Bio dari Q4 2007 tapi ini wajar karena
> dipake utk akuisisi Tuah Turangga), masih cukup untuk working capital &
> untuk sebagian dana akuisisi tambang batubara lainnya itu. Kalau forecast
> saya nggak keliru, 1st Half Year dia bisa record net income Rp 1100 Bio.*
>
>
>
> *So for long term investor > 1 yr, TIME TO BUY.*
>
>
>
>
>
> *T.o.m*
>
>
>
> On 6/26/08, *J. Harry Dhamo* <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
>
> --- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, "Tom DS" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
> >
> > *More specific Eat ANTM !!*
> > **
> > **
> > *T.o.m*
> >
> >
> > On 6/26/08, Jack Cowok <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > Now the time to eat METAL
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > Salam
> > >
> > > JACK
> > >
>
> Benar Tom DS, info anda emang moy..eyy, and what about UNTR??
>
>
>
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> Standard Chartered Bank ("SCB") is incorporated in England with limited
> liability by Royal Charter 1853, under reference ZC18. The Principal Office
> of SCB is situated in England at 1 Aldermanbury Square, London EC2V 7SB. In
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>
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> http://www.standardchartered.com/global/email_disclaimer.html to refer to
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>
> 
>

Re: [obrolan-bandar] INDF - to Tom DS

[Tom DS]

*Pak Boyz sorry baru balas...*
**
*Terus terang saya saat ini nggak ada portfolio INDF, kaerna belum jadi
fokus & target saya (maklum boz saya lagi kesengsem sama yang lain yg lebih
menarik) Tapi sempat hitung2 sih.. *
*Hmmm, coba saya coba hitung ulang dulu, takutnya kalau salah hitung &
keburu dikirim ke OB nanti infonya menyesatkan.*
**
*Yang jelas keliatannya per awal 2008 INDF secara fundamental lumayan
atraktif. Dia juga bisa mensupply kebutuhan CPO nya sendiri (dia punya lahan
kelapa sawit yg kalau nggak salah sekitar 80% digunakan sendiri dan sisanya
di ekspor).*
**
**
*T.o.m*


On 6/26/08, boyz <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
>
>   Ane perhatiin belakangan ini info dari ente lumayan yahud, Tom.
> Any view on INDF ?
> Thanks...
>
> http://finance.groups.yahoo.com/group/obrolan-bandar/message/89989
>
> Salam,
>
> 
>

Re: [obrolan-bandar] aali

[Tom DS]

*Sorry Pak, as I already said earlier about AALI *
**
*Akan cukup sulit AALI turun di bawah 27700, support sangat kuat sekali di
27700. Tapi trading range AALI untuk beberapa hari ini di 28000-28500
sebelum bungee jumping...*
**
**
*T.o.m*


On 6/26/08, Ajo Ramon <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
>
>only for the believer, AALI di 28000 padanannya adalah TBLA di
> 1600,,,why keep denying this fact??
>
> - Original Message 
> From: swan silo <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
> To: [EMAIL PROTECTED]; [EMAIL PROTECTED];
> obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com
> Sent: Thursday, June 26, 2008 8:36:55 PM
> Subject: [obrolan-bandar] aali
>
>   tambahan aali support kuat di 28000..
>
> - Forwarded Message 
> From: swan silo 
> To: obrolan-bandar@ yahoogroups. com; [EMAIL PROTECTED] com
> Sent: Thursday, June 26, 2008 8:30:35 PM
> Subject: aali
>
>  aali bisa ke 27300 an
>
>
>
>
> 
>

[obrolan-bandar] Fwd: METAL - Time to buy --> Info UNTR

[Tom DS]

*Sekalian info buat temen2 OB lainnya ttg UNTR, krn kemarin ada yg tanya...*
**
**
*T.o.m*


-- Forwarded message --
From: Tom DS <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
Date: Jun 26, 2008 9:24 PM
Subject: Re: METAL - Time to buy --> Info UNTR
To: "J. Harry Dhamo" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>


*UNTR lagi mau di downgrade sama Goldman Sachs kalo nggak salah ke 1
sekian. But this is very impossible
Dia punya support kuat di 11900, ini agak sulit ditembus since besar sekali
volume yg beli di average 11800an...*
**
*Fundamentally fair price nya per akhir bulan ini (atau per 1st Half Year)
sekitar Rp 12800-13200/share. Belum lagi selain Tuah Turangga yg awal tahu
ini diakuisisi (UNTR dapet windfall profit dari kenaikan batubara juga),
UNTR ada rencana akuisisi tambang batubara yg lumayan bisa mendongkrak
penjualan mereka. Jangan lupa, cashnya UNTR masih sekitar Rp 730 Bio per Q1
2008 kemarin (meski turun sekitar 300 Bio dari Q4 2007 tapi ini wajar karena
dipake utk akuisisi Tuah Turangga), masih cukup untuk working capital &
untuk sebagian dana akuisisi tambang batubara lainnya itu. Kalau forecast
saya nggak keliru, 1st Half Year dia bisa record net income Rp 1100 Bio.*
**
*So for long term investor > 1 yr, TIME TO BUY.*
**
**
*T.o.m*


On 6/26/08, J. Harry Dhamo <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
>
> --- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, "Tom DS" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
> >
> > *More specific Eat ANTM !!*
> > **
> > **
> > *T.o.m*
> >
> >
> > On 6/26/08, Jack Cowok <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > Now the time to eat METAL
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > Salam
> > >
> > > JACK
> > >
>
> Benar Tom DS, info anda emang moy..eyy, and what about UNTR??
>
>

Re: [obrolan-bandar] METAL - Time to buy

[Tom DS]

*More specific Eat ANTM !!*
**
**
*T.o.m*


On 6/26/08, Jack Cowok <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
>
>
>
> Now the time to eat METAL
>
>
>
>
>
> Salam
>
> JACK
>
> 
>

Re: [obrolan-bandar] Re: BULL or BEAR?? BEAR udah sangat jelas

[Tom DS]

*Halo Elaine, baca nggak tuh pak Boyz bilang apa?*
**
*Boleh dong dapat menang taruhannya =p*
**
*Hahaha... kidding...*
*AALI memang banyak yg jagain. Kalau nggak salah hari ini CLSA ambilposisi
buy paling banyak dan dia tanpa sell 1 lot pun sampai jam 2 siang tadi. Sore
ini belum cek satu-satu.*
**
**
*T.o.m*


On 6/26/08, boyz <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
>
>   hehehe...
>
> ya udah,  minta cipika cipiki sana sama Elaine...
> kan semalam ngomong-nya taruhan cipika cipiki. [image: :p]
>
>
>
>
> --- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, "Tom DS" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
> >
> > *Pak Boyz, mana yang mau jatuhin AALI below 27700 & ASII below 19050?*
> > **
> > *Jadi nggak nih taruhannya? Lumayan juga stockmarket kita, kalo nggak
> cuan
> > di stock bisa cuan di taruhan =)*
> > **
> > **
> > *T.o.m*
> >
> >
> > On 6/25/08, boyz [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:
> > >
> > > --- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, "Tom DS" tom.ds.stock@
> > > wrote:
> > > >
> > > > *Wanna bet? ASII won't fall below 19050 and AALI won't fall more than
> > > > 27700*
> > > > *T.o.m*
> > > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > Taruhannya berapa M?
> > > Pake notaris gak ?
> > >
> > > Salam,
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> >
> 
>

[obrolan-bandar] Volume kecil? TLKM ke 7300???

[Tom DS]

*Busyet volume kecil amat.. *
**
*Buat ngeguyur JKSE tinggal TLKM sama BUMI nih yg bisa dipake senjata...*
*Beberapa hari lagi TLKM mampir ke 7300... Baru naik ke 8000 beberapa
hari sebelum Cum Date Deviden aja nanti secara devidennya gede banget*
**
**
*T.o.m*

Re: [obrolan-bandar] AALI ada kemungkinan ribon

[Tom DS]

*Yoi my friend*
**
*AALI untuk beberapa hari ke depan trading saja dulu di 28000-28500.*
*Baru abis itu bungee jumping ke 33000.*
**
**
*T.o.m*


On 6/26/08, freez z <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
>
>   AAli ada di dua garis support yang kuat.Time to buy, tapi kalau support
> yang kuat ini jebol bisa gawat. Jangan terkecoh dengan berita basi yang di
> keluarin bandar hari ini
> http://web.bisnis.com/edisi-cetak/edisi-harian/valas-komoditas/1id65527.html
>
> Harga CPO udah naik lagi ke 3538.
> http://web.bisnis.com/edisi-cetak/edisi-harian/valas-komoditas/1id65527.html
>
> 
>
>

Re: [obrolan-bandar] Re: BULL or BEAR?? BEAR udah sangat jelas

[Tom DS]

*Pak Boyz, mana yang mau jatuhin AALI below 27700 & ASII below 19050?*
**
*Jadi nggak nih taruhannya? Lumayan juga stockmarket kita, kalo nggak cuan
di stock bisa cuan di taruhan =)*
**
**
*T.o.m*


On 6/25/08, boyz <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
>
>   --- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, "Tom DS" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
> wrote:
> >
> > *Wanna bet? ASII won't fall below 19050 and AALI won't fall more than
> > 27700*
> > *T.o.m*
> >
>
>
>
> Taruhannya berapa M?
> Pake notaris gak ?
>
> Salam,
>
>
> 
>

Re: [obrolan-bandar] ANTM Diminta Setor Dividen di Atas Rp2 Triliun

[Tom DS]

*Yup ANTM dipaksa bayar 40% net income untuk deviden, sementara dari
policynya minimum 30%. Yah most likely Rp200/share devidend..
(EPS 2007= Rp538/share)*
**
*Fantastic isn't it*
**
*Kalau besok masih kebagian lagi mau collect lagi di 3150-3175 (kemarin2
ketinggalan kereta, saya lagi di luar kota)*
**
**
*T.o.m*


On 6/26/08, Slasher McGorok <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
>
>   semua BUMN kayaknya lagi diperas untuk nombokin apbn yah..
>
>
>
>  --
> To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com
> From: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
> Date: Wed, 25 Jun 2008 10:55:00 +0800
> Subject: [obrolan-bandar] ANTM Diminta Setor Dividen di Atas Rp2 Triliun
>
>
> ANTM Diminta Setor Dividen di Atas Rp2 Triliun Submitted by Redaksi on
> Wed, 06/25/2008 - 07:35.
>
> Pemerintah meminta dividen PT 
> Aneka Tambang Tbk (Antam) tahun ini lebih besar dibandingkan dengan rasio
> dividen tahun lalu sebesar 40% dari laba bersih 2006.
> Berita selengkapnya bisa dilihat di Bisnis 
> Indonesia
> .
>
>
> --
> Yahoo! Toolbar kini dilengkapi dengan Search Assist. Download sekarang
> juga.
>
>
>
> --
> Make the most of what you can do on your PC and the Web, just the way you
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>
> 
>