[ob] SOMETHING IS WRONG WITH KENNETH LEWIS BOA INTERVIEW TODAY AFTER BANK CEOS MEETIN
bagi yg mengikuti CNBC, tadi ada beberapa bank ceos interview dgn CNBC, dari jamie dimon, sampai kenneth lewis. sewaktu interview dengan Kenneth Lewis, sepertinya dia salah ngomong dan cepat2 ditutupi oleh CNBC, saya lagi sikat gigi dan di WC jadi tidak sempat denger dgn jelas tapi if memory serves, katanya BOA lg susah dan ga profitable lagi?? kalau ada yang ikutin secara detil, tolong dibales, sampai interviewnya ga di replay2 sama CNBC.
[obrolan-bandar] Wells Fargo Company (NYSE:WFC) 10.23+1.62 / +18.82% 11:49am ET
Wells Fargo Company (NYSE:WFC) 10.23+1.62 / +18.82% 11:49am ET
[obrolan-bandar] You must be Mad to buy Citigroup stock. Re: peraturan delisting NYSE mengenai
Empuh :) Thank you for sending us a question for Warren Buffett. We'll look at them all, and select a few to ask him when he appears on CNBC's Squawk Box, Monday March 9. Sorry, but we won't be able to respond to questions that aren't used on the air. Name: Fandy Cendrawira Email Address: fandycendraw...@hotmail.com City, ST: Jakarta , Java Indonesia Your Question for Warren Buffett: Dear Sir First I would like you to know that I am one of the many legion of your worshippers and I always imagine you are a grandfather figure to me. Recently there are many issue and concern regarding your acumen and the execution on your investment strategy. You even admit that you made a mistake yourself. You said this crisis is always the same as those that happened in the past. I seriously would like to think so too but aren't we a bit over optimism this time. Ok, my question now is regarding Wells Fargo and other financial holdings in berkshire hathaway. I myself have invested a huge chunk of my live savings on WFC when the stock price dropped below u$ 10. But recently moody has downgraded WFC to negative and there are many chatters and whispers it will suffer the same demise as other financial institutions. WFC management itself continue to declare they will be profitable and maintain dividends over time. I would like to know what is your take on that because you said that you cannot resist U$20/share of wells fargo. How what about U$ 5/share of wells fargo? Yours Faithfully Fandy Cendrawira God Bless you guys, invest safely
[obrolan-bandar] Re: Us bank yang akan survive
Hello mate You asked some good questions there. To give you an awareness of how this crisis started is because of over-leverage. From fleas, dogs, people to companies in US are borrowing multiple times of their equities as collateral. That is why overtime, companies are able to expand rapidly and generate massive profits and with people/society having too much money be able to push up share prices to epic ridiculous valuation. Thus everything is wayyy overvalued in 2007-2008. Even now at the current SP level, company is just reasonably valued with sense with about 12-15x PER. Would you buy something that will give you break even in over 10 years? I personally would not do so. Imagine yourself buying business or investment that give you back your total return in 12-15 years? Bah. Correct. Stocks historically during the great depression is valued at 2-3x PER. Surprise? But of course the condition in 1928 is different from now. The world has advanced much in many terms(population, economically, standard of living, technology). People are much smarter now than last time and information from internet has dramatically shrank the world which give people edge in making timely decision or taking advantage. I do not make money by making a bet on the direction of the economy or hoping a screwed up company to overturn(This is extremely hard), but I love something that is really good, the best in it's industry, no problem with it's balance sheet, for discount sale in 20 years !! Investment Bank in US is practically dead for now, I do not dare to touch an investment bank especially with derivatives because it is a giant ponzi scheme, nobody will be there especially in this economic climate is able to absorb the writedown/losses. I shudder at the thought of banks with derivatives product, it is what cause US financial system meltdown and AIG, Citigroup, Lehman brothers to go BUST. Retail, Commercial Banking will be the face of new US financial system. My money is on Wells Fargo. Some people like BK (Bank of New York Mellon) and USB (Us Bancorp), but I always like the cream of the good, pick the best horse and run to the finish with it. Good luck ! Fandy Cendrawira --- On Sun, 3/8/09, anthonykalisa...@telstra.ap.blackberry.net anthonykalisa...@telstra.ap.blackberry.net wrote: From: anthonykalisa...@telstra.ap.blackberry.net anthonykalisa...@telstra.ap.blackberry.net Subject: Us bank yang akan survive To: cendraw...@yahoo.com Date: Sunday, March 8, 2009, 5:46 PM Dear cendrawira Saya baru saja membaca tulisan anda mengenai perbankan (terutama citigroup) cukup bagus dan logis , tapi bukankah harga di pasar saham us sudah cukup efisien sehingga seharusnya harga skrg udah mencerminkan valuenya yg skarang? Cmiiw. Lalu mengenai bank yang akan survive dan bisa memberikan return yg besar yg seperti anda tulis tsb , apakah bank tsb memang mempunyai potensi begitu bagusnya dan portfolio yang lebih baik dari para peers nya? . Kalo boleh share bank 2 yang berpotensi seperti itu bank apa pak? Apakah investment bank( potensi leverage besar Sehingga bisa growth dengan luar biasa) ato bank2 konvensional yang mengandalkan business retail dan commercial , karena saya masih agak awam pak di bidang investasi , jadi mohon bantuannya. Trima kasih banyak pak Salam hangat Anthony Sent via BlackBerry® from Telstra Network
[obrolan-bandar] You must be Mad to buy Citigroup stock. Re: peraturan delisting NYSE mengenai
Greetings, memang betapa tempting untuk memiliki behemoth seperti citigroup dengan seharga U$ 1 / stock. tapi apakah anda tau kalau citigroup itu sudah menjadi zombie bank , istilah bank yang sudah mati tapi di-animate oleh US government untuk menjaga citra dan shockwave financial collapse kalau dibiarkan file for chapter 11. saya tidak mau omong panjang lebar, yang namanya high risk juga memberikan high reward. Prince Alwaleed membuat namanya karena di tahun 90an dia membeli saham citi seharga U$ 2 dan menyentuh 50an di peaknya. sekarang kolega2 saya mengibaratkan saham citigroup seperti US lottery, bisa bikin bust dan kaya. it's your call. bisa aja dukungan politik2 membuat bank ini hidup lagi seperti kasus perbankan indonesia di tahun 1998, contoh BCA, dari setengah mati akhirnya bisa jadi kuda hitam perbankan nasional. tapi let me give you a good head up, market kapitalisasi citigroup skrng sisa U$6.2B , dan US government akan tetap menginjek U$ 45 billion buat common shares di city, saudara punya otak sendiri 6.2/45 = 0.137 Dilution. sekarang ambil saja harga pasaran citigroup dikalikan 0.137 , dan anda akan mendapatkan harga asli citigroup. GOOD LUCK WITH YOUR CITIGROUP. sebenarnya ada bank amerika yang akan menjadi survivor dan paling besar setelah ekonomi amerika recover dan harga sahamnya akan naik hingga 200%. kalau anda rajin sedikit anda bisa riset dan mengetahui bank apa itu, sekarang 1/2 harta saya, saya telah benamkan untuk membeli bank itu. GOOD LUCK !!! --- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, adjies2000 ad2...@... wrote: --- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, Hoki Tralala hoki.tralala@ wrote: AIG sama eropa hubungannya apa ya? :-) reply : AIG dari bisnis traditional asuransi sudah berubah menjadi raksasa sebagai HedgeFunD dan hancur lebur...bisnis AIG yang sudah kait mengkait dengan ekonomi Europa, dampak domino yang akan membuat system Banking, Insurance, PensionFund dll berantakan. AIG used to be in the conventional insurance business, covering identifiable risks it knew something about, until it took advantage of deregulation and a lack of government surveillance to come up with contrived new financial products. Even Maurice Greenberg, the man who built AIG from the ground up over a span of 40 years before he was forced out amid corruption charges in 2005, admits that he didn't understand the newfangled financial gimmicks that the company was peddling. This week, claiming he too was swindled, Greenberg sued in federal court, charging the AIG execs who forced him out with gross, wanton or willful fraud or other morally culpable conduct, over the credit default swap portfolio that was part of his settlement. US taxpayers now have ownership of almost 80 percent of AIG, but with the company's once solid traditional insurance business now suffering a steep loss of consumer confidence, it's not likely that even the formerly healthy parts of the company will be worth much. What we have here is all pain and no gain for the taxpayers roped into this debacle, which is proving to be the story of the entire banking bailout. ' Reference dibawah ini. regards AIG: Billions Dished Out in the Dark By Robert Scheer March 4, 2009 * Email * Print * Share o Buzz up! o Buzzflash o del.icio.us o Digg o Facebook o Add to Mixx!Mixx it! o Reddit What is this? * Take Action * Web Letters (2) * Write a Letter! * Subscribe Now Robert Scheer is the editor of Truthdig, where this article originally appeared. His latest book is The Pornography of Power: How Defense Hawks Hijacked 9/11 and Weakened America(Twelve). This is crazy! Forget the bleating of Rush Limbaugh; the problem is not with the quite reasonable and, if anything, underfunded stimulus package, which in any case will be debated long and hard in Congress. The problem is with what is not being debated: the far more expensive Wall Street bailout that is being pushed through--as in the case of the latest AIG rescue--in secret, hurried deal-making primarily by the unelected secretary of the treasury and the chairman of the Federal Reserve. Share this article * * * * Add to Mixx! * * * Related * Also By * Comes the Change U.S. Economy Robert L. Borosage: Obama's first budget is an audacious plan to transform America. But in sad testament to how deeply we've fallen, it is not bold enough. * America Is #... 15? Subscribe U.S. Economy Dalton Conley: Because of income inequality, the United States scores poorly on a new index of general well-being. * A Bank Bailout That Works U.S. Economy Joseph E. Stiglitz: Banks have polluted the economy; it's a matter of equity and efficiency that they
[obrolan-bandar] WORLD ECONOMIC WAR , MELTDOWN. KITA BARU AKAN MERASAKAN PAHITYA TAHUN INI.
Saya mau minta maaf atas pemakaian bahasa saya yang rada crude dan kaku karena saya tidak begitu terpelajar :D Wake up call for everyone who is still hoping: We are in the middle of WORLD ECONOMIC WAR. Bagi yang masih wanti2 ada harapan bahwa kondisi global ekonomi sekarang masih bisa recover dalam waktu dekat, FAT HOPE. Kalau mau omong bego dan dijadikan skenario, kondisi ekonomi dunia sekarang seperti AFTERMATH perang dunia, semuanya sudah hancur lebur hanya kondisi asli ditutup-tutupin government-government karena takut akan mengakibatkan global financial panic yang lbh parah seperti november.WE WERE HIT BY FINANCIAL WEAPON OF MASS DESTRUCTION LEVERAGE. Semua biang keroknya ada LEVERAGE. Subprime ? LEVERAGE. Spending above one means? LEVERAGE. Economy is heading into toilet, I will spare you guys from statistic or chart or citation or history study, think about this simply, Selama ini krisis ekonomi yang berlalu seperti 1970+, 1998, 2001 global ekonomi masih in moving, demands are still in place, global economy is still growing with emerging players like China, India, krisis2 yang berlalu hanya skala richter 6-7, leverage is still reasonable and people are still spending within their means. That is why we can recover very fast within years. Thanks to Alan Maestro idiot Greenspan menurunkan interest rates terendah di awal abad 21, money is abundant and available to everyone, banks are eager to learn, companies and their mothers are expanding with multiple leverages from their assets/equities. PEOPLE BECOMING TO FORGET THEIR BASE. Long story short, bagi pemula2 yang belum keep up to speed apa yang mengakibatkan subprime mortgage ( KPR level 2) adalah orang amerika menjaminkan rumah mereka untuk mendapatkan pinjam berkali2 lipat dari nilai rumah mereka, kasus ini sudah terjadi di indonesia dulu di tahun 1998 , dimana konglomerat , kolormerat menjaminkan tanah2 mereka 10x dari nilai wajar tanah mrk kongkalikong dengan pejabat bank dan lari dengan duitnya dan membiarkan kerugian diderita bank yang meminjamkan sehingga terjadinya krisis likuiditas perbankan sampai BANKRUPT. Contoh saja, BANK BEGO meminjamkan 10M untuk PAK MALING yang menjaminkan tanahnya yang seharga 1M. PAK MALING menyatakan BANKRUPT, DEFAULT, KABUR, sehingga BANK BEGO msh menderita kerugian 9M setelah menjual tanah tsb. Nah karena kasus tersebut, BANK BEGO akan menderita LOSS di P/L statement dan akan efek ke BALANCE SHEET. Bagi sodara2 yang tidak ngerti cara bekerja Bank, BANK memalak rakyat2, warga2 dengan encourage people to save or put deposit dan memberikan return yang lbh rendah dibawah INFLASI (SHEESH , YES BANKING SYSTEM IS A RIPOFF) , contohnya setelah bank2 mendapat dana dari masyrakat, BANK2 DAPAT MEMINJAM DUIT 2-10x dari SENTRAL BANK UNTUK DISALURKAN SECARA KREDIT, skarang mikir aja, BANK KAN UNTUNG DIKIT AJA KASIH DEPOSITO, COST OF FUNDING 6-8%, salurkan kredit 14-15%, untung hanya 8%-7% toh?? WRONG. Those RIPOFFS, misalnya dengan dana publik 10M, mereka bisa mendapatkan 50M-100M pinjaman/leverage untuk disalurkan ke KREDIT. SEE THE MATHS NOW? Setiap 1% yg mrk salurkan, mrk UNTUNG 5-10x , jadi 5-10%., jadi untung 8%-7% = 80%-70%/TAHUN SWEET HUH MO BISNIS APA LAGI KECUALI JADI BANKER??? Belum itung2 BUNGA KREDIT KARD 38% @_...@. 38x5-10%??? CUAN SI SI. Nah APA KORELASI TERSEBUT DENGAN ORG2 seperti PAK MALING. Ya OTOMATIS BANK akan kena Margin call dari Bank sentral, which still can be managed by BORROWING FROM FELLOW BANKS. TAPI APA YG TERJADI jika NASABAH BANK2 tsb mulai menarik dana2 secara MASSAL DAN PANIC hingga EKUITAS BANK seandainya dari 10M, menjadi 100jt-200jt DENGAN PINJAMAN 50M?? SEHINGGA BANK2 JUGA GA BISA INTERBANK LENDING LAGI. GILA COI , BANK SENTRAL YA KEBAKARAN JENGGOT sampai IKUT SUSAH. Nah tapi yang namanya BANK SENTRAL YA GAMPANG TINGGAL CETAK DUIT TOH, ya sudah Cetak saja trus sampai keq ZIMBABWE, Inflasi melangit, mata uang jadi kertas sembayang org china. YA ITU JALAN TERAKHIR, MAU GA MAU YA SUDAH BANK2 TSB DITUTUP, DIBANKRUTIN, DILIKUIDASI Seadanya. YA YG RUGI SIAPA?? YA NASABAh2 SEPERTI KITA YANG SUDAH MISKIN NABUNG SUSAH2, HEMAT2, DUITNYA ILANG. Makanya roles of government is VERY CRUCIAL in handling crisis. Tapi keadaan sekarang beda, sekarang AMERICANS MOSTLY SUDAH SPEND 5-10x dari pendapatan atau equity mrk, DARI ATAS SAMPAI BAWAH, SISTEM AMERICA ITU CACAT. Skrng aja kita msh omong ttg SUBPRIME U$3-4 Trillion case, apalagi PINJAMAN PEMERINTAH AMERIKA DI DUNIA??? Gimana bayarnya AMERIKA??? SEE the point? WEALTH IS BEING VAPORISED GLOBALLY LIKE SMOKE, JUST EVAPORATE DAILY AND DAILY R A P I D L Y. WHY I AM TERRIBLE AFRAID??? PUT IT INTO THIS WAY SKRNG DARI ORG SAMPAI COMPANY sudah spend atas duit yang tidak ada, dibawahnya siapa yang akan menanggung, menjadi NET, DASAR untuk clean up the mess by this financial system Sekarang siapa lagi yg ada duit untuk dispend di amerika?? Yang meledak skrng hanya subprime mess, pasti ada DOMINO efek, setelah itu akan menjurus ke CREDIT CARD DEFAULT ,
[obrolan-bandar] --ALERT -- ALERT --- FAKE RALLY - BIG DANGER AHEAD --
This is a fake rally, saya tidak mau anda2 ditipu bandar2, sekarang index dan harga2 saham ditopang gara2 bandar lagi cuci pelan2 sebelum IHSG dibiarin free fall. asia tenggara, dan negara2 laen index sudah kembali ke november low, apalagi ekonomi Thailand sudah masuk ke depresi berat. WARNING DO NOT TRADE , DO NOT TRADE , EXIT POSITION ON STRENGTH , CAPITULATION IS COMING , IF YOU MUST TRADE, STICK TO DEFENSIVE, CASH RICH, LOW DEBT BUMN , YOU HAVE BEEN W A R N E D. WSJ: Thailand's Shrinking GDP Ups Asia's Deep Recession Fears By Tom Wright and Patrick Barta OF THE WALL STREET JOURNAL A sharp contraction in Thailand's quarterly economic growth confirmed fears that much of Southeast Asia - until recently a relative bright spot in the world economy - is sinking into a potentially deep recession. Growth was already nose-diving in Singapore, the region's financial capital, and Malaysia is expected to see a sharp deceleration in economic activity when it reports its most recent quarterly data this coming Friday. Layoffs are piling up at textile factories and semiconductor plants, and economists warn the region's previously-announced stimulus packages won't be enough to offset spiraling declines in exports to the U.S. and elsewhere. (This story and related background material will be available on The Wall Street Journal Web site, WSJ.com) Thailand's data underscored the worst fears. The country's economy - Southeast Asia's second-biggest - contracted 4.3% in the fourth quarter compared to the same period a year earlier, considerably worse than analysts expected. The government slashed its forecast for 2009 growth to between 0% and -1.0%, from earlier projections of 3.0% to 4.0%, meaning Thailand will almost certainly endure a recession this year. The Thai economy will be likely to get worse before it gets better as exports stay weak, says Sriyan Pietersz, an analyst at JPMorgan Chase Co. (JPM) in Bangkok. Southeast Asia had until recently looked somewhat stronger than the rest of Asia and many other emerging markets. Its governments built up huge reserves in the wake of the 1997-98 Asian financial crisis. Many local companies and consumers, burned by sharp currency devaluations in the late 1990s, avoided the excessive foreign borrowing and other risks that are now plaguing Eastern Europe and other regions. Two of the region's economies - Indonesia and the Philippines - are still performing better than most emerging nations, largely because they have large consumer markets that are offsetting declines in export revenues. Both countries posted growth in excess of 4% in the fourth quarter. But Indonesia faces further fallout from swooning prices for copper, palm oil and other key commodity exports, and the Philippines is counting on remittances from foreign-based workers to keep domestic spending high, even though a weaker global economy could trim those funds. The area's other big players are looking more and more like Taiwan and Korea, whose economies have already been sent into tailspins by their excessive reliance on exports. In Malaysia, a major hub of electronics manufacturing, growth was at 6.7% as recently as the second quarter of 2008. Now, analysts are forecasting only slight growth for the fourth quarter of 2008 and an outright contraction of -0.5% or worse for 2009. Auto sales fell 17.5% in January from a year earlier. In Singapore, the government said last week that non-oil exports fell 35% on-year to $6.6 billion, its worst performance since records began thirty years ago. The city-state is now bracing for an economic contraction of between 2% and 5% in 2009, according to the government. The economy has only done this badly once before, in 2001, when the U.S. tech slump led to a 2.4% fall in Singapore's gross domestic product. There is no escape. We're going to go through a major downturn, says Manu Bhaskaran, an adjunct fellow at Singapore's Institute of Policy Studies. At Singapore's huge port, one of the world's largest, hundreds of ships can be seen from downtown Singapore, idling just offshore with no cargo to transport. Guy Lamb, managing director of Singapore-based Island Shipbrokers, which charters oil tankers, says the company has maintained its volumes but rates have fallen 75% since a peak at the beginning of 2008. Property prices, fueled in recent years by foreign demand, are also in free-fall, A report by Credit Suisse Group (CS) in January found that 200,000 foreigners could leave Singapore over the next two years as they lose their jobs in services and manufacturing. Property prices, already down 8% from their peak in 2008, could fall by as much as 40% this year, Credit Suisse warned. Singapore-based Chartered Semiconductor Manufacturing (C27.SG), one of the world's largest chip makers, said last month that it was firing 600 workers amid forecasts of its biggest ever loss in the first quarter. As job losses increase, the government announced a $13.6 billion stimulus
[obrolan-bandar] -- ALERT ALERT - DANGER AHEAD
Jepang-6,994 HK-10,676 SG-1,473_ CN-1,664_ AU-3,201_ KR-892_ UK-3,665_ US-7,226_ INDO-1,089 http://www.cnbc.com/id/29344999 Charts: SP May Fall to 600 as Bottom Fails Topics:Recession | Economy (U.S.) | Stock Market | Economy (Global) By: CNBC.com | 23 Feb 2009 | 06:14 AM ET Text Size The SP 500 could slump over 20 percent throughout this year and into the next as the index fails to form a firm base at current levels, Robin Griffiths from Cazenove Capital told CNBC Monday. The SP, [.SPX 759.3-10.75 (-1.4%) ] which closed at 770 points Friday, could fall to around 600 points, according to Griffiths, but a timeframe is difficult to predict. It's going to go there and in terms of where the final low might be, probably not even this year, he said. It now doesn't look like an ultimate bottom pattern. The only low left below us now is the November low, said Griffiths. Last week it broke down below some important support levels, he added. If the SP surpasses the lows of last year it would be very, very rare and be more in-keeping with a depression than a recession, Griffiths said. The overall economy is way off its lows, according to Griffiths, and will bottom somewhere between 2010 and 2012, but not in 2009.
[obrolan-bandar] *MUST READ* VErY POSSIBLE Re: BUMI Rp 200 (diprediksikan akan segera dikabulkan)
So what PER 0.25 now? banyak emiten yang punya PER 0.25-1 even MINUS, mana bisa patokan PER tahun ini dijadikan patokan PER buat kedepan? I WILL NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE CURRENT PER GO DOWN TO 0.25 and become updated next year according to it's accounting. trust me, it will be a matter of time before KPC and ARUTMIN are sold/ganti tangan from BUMI kalau investors sudah lost confidence di BUMI dan susah mencari capital di market lagi. utang aja blum lunas, mau terbitkan surat utang, SIAPA YANG MAU BELI UTANGNYA? RIO TINTO LG PANGKAS TENAGA KERJA sampai 12000 ORG, STOP MINE OPERATIONS, CONSERVE CASH, BUMI MENGKAKUISISI KANAN KIRI SEPERTI BELI MP3 DI GLODOK. Saya rasa di dunia saham, anything is possible? 50? possible? 100? 200? why not? Saya kasian sama orang yang masih terlena dengan cinta pertama dengan BUMI dan ga bisa liat the big pictures. Falling in love with stocks is W R O N G. bottomline, perusahaan yang sudah tidak menghormati/menghargai/mengutamakan shareholders value sudah G O N E C A S E. Saya yakin aftermath dari semua ini, BUMI akan ikut TMPI, possible? anything is possible nowadays. You can't trust anybody (lihat saja lehman brothers, bear sterns, bernie madoff, sarijaya) MEMANGNYA EMITEN BEI HANYA BUMI DOANK, Kenapa ORG GA BISA FOCUS KE TLKM, ISAT, INCO, ASII, ITMG, bLUE CHIPS YG BENER2 BONAFIT, LOW DEBT, GOOD CORPORATE GOVERNANCE DAN DIVIDENDS YANG REASONABLE??? mau make some easy money?? IKUT TENDER OFFER ISAT. KENAPA? bukan rahasia umum kalau org yg rajin riset. PERGI KE SITUS INDOSAT DAN LIHAT INVESTOR RELATIONS DAN LIAT SISA2 SAHAM ISAT DI PUBLIK, LESS THAN 11% people ! QTEL MO DAPETIN 20+% juga blum tentu dapat karena harga 7388 BO CENG LI buat perusahaan telekomunikasi yang sangat bonafide (LOOK AT DIVIDENDS PAYOUT and EARNINGS GROWTH AND FUTURE PROSPECTS). HELLO PEOPLE, THIS IS INDONESIA, 200 mil population with only 20% people connected. Summary, 2 skenario yg akan terjadi, yg IKUT TENDER OFFER AKAN DIBELI SEMUA AMA QTEL ATAU AKAN DIKEREK LEBIH TINGGI DARI HARGA 7388. SAYA SET TP 8150 kalau skenario ke2 jalan. harga tutup kemarin 5750. PROFIT 28% DI DEPAN MATA GA USAH KERJA DI GLOBAL KRISIS, NGAPAIN PUSINGIN SAHAM KEQ BUMI. W A K E U P P E O P L E. --- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, Slasher McGorok treasureseek...@... wrote: Im afraid if ocoy is still kickin? To: obrolan-ban...@...: oentoeng...@...: Wed, 14 Jan 2009 11:09:16 +Subject: [obrolan-bandar] Re: BUMI Rp 200 (diprediksikan akan segera dikabulkan) --- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, Jhon Veter jhon_veter@wrote: Saya mau numpang tanya sama pak Oen, mohon kesediaannya,1. Kalo bandar BEJO udah hitung semua hal, apakah aksi perlawanan investor BEJO juga sudah diperhitungkan?Mestinya sudah, tapi kalau keberhasilan mereka itu? Saya yakin mereka (bejo grup) sendiri blm berani berspekulasi. Tetapi kalau mulai kelihatan ada pergerakan yg meluas mestinya merekamelakukan aksi2 tertentu untuk melawanYang jelas jauh hari saya lihat semua aspek hukum sudah merekarencanakan dengan MATANG... 2. Apakah aksi korporasi BEJO bisa kita anggap cara om AB pindahin duitMindahin duitnya, sudah LAMA dilakukan. Aksi korporasi sekarang ini, cuman buat ALASAN aja.Semua itu akan dijadikan pembenaran apa yg telah dilakukan. 3. Anggap BUMI ke 50, jika kinerja 2009 setengahnya dari 2008 apakah tidak aneh? Masa nilai PER nya hanya seperempat? Saya tahu anda adalah salah satu trader fundamental.Di milis ini saya sudah pernah katakan bahkan sering, sampai diejekbyk org, bhw semua fundamentalist bicara BEJO (grup) adalah NON SENSE.Mau bilang kaitannya kapasitas produksi, jumlah cadangan, harga batubara dst...Malah bagi seorang TA trader yg benar2 meyakini bahwa Price DiscountEverything!Mestinya semua HIDDEN INFORMATION sudah terefleksikan pada penurunanharga SELAMA INI.Kalau belum tahu informasi apa yg belum keungkap, harus dicari sampaiketemu. Sehingga memang FAKTOR tsb yg menyebabkan penurunan harga.Apalagi kalau trader yg suka ber-TEORI bahwa Market always right!Dari dulu saya counter ungkapan tsb dg kalimat; Bahwa bandar ituTIDAK GOBLOK!Artinya SELLER (selama ini) tahu persis apa yg meMOTIVASI dia untukmelepas sahamnya.Apalagi dengan BESAR2an...Mereka semua sudah melakukan ANALISA yg MENDALAM, jauh lebih mendalamdaripada yg masih bengong2, cari info sana sini di mass media.Saya pribadi juga MIRIS lihat begitu banyak korban, walaupun jauh harisaya dengan EL sudah warning bahwa BEJO nggak beres.Tapi ketika saya sharing terlalu TERBUKA, siapa yg mikirin saya ketikakena bom atom seperti yg dialami Mr. Jack saat ini?Padahal dari serpihan2 info yg beredar; itu sudah terang benderang apayg sedang dikerjakan oleh mereka.Coba saya tanya anda dari sisi fundamental BEJO kenapa dia harusakuisisi perusahaan lain?Kriteria apa saja yg dipenuhi sebuah perusahaan sehingga akhirnya diaharus AKUISISI?Jawaban versi saya nanti, saya optimis tidak tertebak oleh anda.HeheheKarena ini berkaitan dengan perbandaran... Trims buat
[obrolan-bandar] **MUST READ** BUY ISAT NOW. Very High Probabilty to earn 20%
Karena saya kasian liat byk yg krismon dan ditipu sana sini, saya akan memberi tips yang bagus. IKUT TENDER OFFER ISAT. KENAPA? bukan rahasia umum kalau org yg rajin riset. PERGI KE SITUS INDOSAT DAN LIHAT INVESTOR RELATIONS DAN LIAT SISA2 SAHAM ISAT DI PUBLIK, LESS THAN 11% people ! QTEL MO DAPETIN 20+% juga blum tentu dapat karena harga 7388 BO CENG LI buat perusahaan telekomunikasi yang sangat bonafide (LOOK AT DIVIDENDS PAYOUT and EARNINGS GROWTH AND FUTURE PROSPECTS). HELLO PEOPLE, THIS IS INDONESIA, 200 mil population with only 20% people connected. Saham ISAT sempat sampai Rp 10,000, malah ditawar Rp 7388, emangnya MASYARAKAT BLO'ON?? pardon the language. Saya hanya bener2 sangat kesel dan emosi dengan cara kerja pihak2 yang hanya memikirkan gain sendiri dengan segala market manipulation and engineering to get the best price. Summary, 2 skenario yg akan terjadi, yg IKUT TENDER OFFER AKAN DIBELI SEMUA AMA QTEL ATAU AKAN DIKEREK LEBIH TINGGI DARI HARGA 7388. SAYA SET TP 8150 kalau skenario ke2 jalan. harga tutup kemarin 5750. PROFIT 28% DI DEPAN MATA GA USAH KERJA DI GLOBAL KRISIS, NGAPAIN PUSINGIN SAHAM KEQ BUMI. W A K E U P P E O P L E. don't forget to thank GOD in heaven if you make money from this tips. Reference: http://www.indosat.com/Investor_Relations/Investor_Relations/Major_Shareholders Shareholders (as of September 2008) ICL Entities 40.81% Government of Indonesia 14.29% Fidelity entities 11.75% Goldman Sachs 8.64% Noonday / Farallon entities 7.95% Skagen AS entities 6.03% Public 10.53%
[obrolan-bandar] **MUST READ** BUY ISAT NOW. Very High Probabilty to earn 20%
Karena saya kasian liat byk yg krismon dan ditipu sana sini, saya akan memberi tips yang bagus. ok mungkin saya tidak dikenal, tapi saya pernah warn masyarakat di forum ini ttg CPRO 2 tahun yang lalu sewaktu sebelum CPRO dapat DIPASENA. look at CPRO price now? cproT or CIPRO (Cipai PRO ah). IKUT TENDER OFFER ISAT. KENAPA? bukan rahasia umum kalau org yg rajin riset. PERGI KE SITUS INDOSAT DAN LIHAT INVESTOR RELATIONS DAN LIAT SISA2 SAHAM ISAT DI PUBLIK, LESS THAN 11% people ! QTEL MO DAPETIN 20+% juga blum tentu dapat karena harga 7388 BO CENG LI buat perusahaan telekomunikasi yang sangat bonafide (LOOK AT DIVIDENDS PAYOUT and EARNINGS GROWTH AND FUTURE PROSPECTS). HELLO PEOPLE, THIS IS INDONESIA, 200 mil population with only 20% people connected. Saham ISAT sempat sampai Rp 10,000, malah ditawar Rp 7388, emangnya MASYARAKAT BLO'ON?? pardon the language. Saya hanya bener2 sangat kesel dan emosi dengan cara kerja pihak2 yang hanya memikirkan gain sendiri dengan segala market manipulation and engineering to get the best price. Summary, 2 skenario yg akan terjadi, yg IKUT TENDER OFFER AKAN DIBELI SEMUA AMA QTEL ATAU AKAN DIKEREK LEBIH TINGGI DARI HARGA 7388. SAYA SET TP 8150 kalau skenario ke2 jalan. harga tutup kemarin 5750. PROFIT 28% DI DEPAN MATA GA USAH KERJA DI GLOBAL KRISIS, NGAPAIN PUSINGIN SAHAM KEQ BUMI. W A K E U P P E O P L E. don't forget to thank GOD in heaven if you make money from this tips. Reference: http://www.indosat.com/Investor_Relations/Investor_Relations/Major_Shareholders Shareholders (as of September 2008) ICL Entities 40.81% Government of Indonesia 14.29% Fidelity entities 11.75% Goldman Sachs 8.64% Noonday / Farallon entities 7.95% Skagen AS entities 6.03% Public 10.53%
[obrolan-bandar] Re: BUMI : Hear No Evil - See No Evil - Speak No Evil
BUMI TP - 200-300 kalau group bakrie mau iseng, tinggal dilepas KPC ama ARUTMIN, trus BUMI balik menjadi perusahaan hotel lagi deh. sorry guys, BUMI is going down, this time, it is really through the highway as soon as simetriknya suspensi BEI dicabut. turut berduka cita... --- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, fifi young fifiyoun...@... wrote: Iya nech Mbah, sampe ada yang japri ke saya minta mental support karena nyangkut banyak di BUMI. Padahal saya sendiri juga nyangkut banyak. Tapi untung aja saya orangnya cukup tabah. COOL... tetap trading/investing... focus ke saham yang lain, jangan karena yang satu ini jadi down... Coba donk berikan advice atau mental support buat yang nyangkut, bagaimana untuk menghadapi biang-kerok ini. On Sat, Jan 10, 2009 at 10:24 PM, jsx_consultant jsx-consult...@... wrote: --- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com obrolan-bandar%40yahoogroups.com, Jack Cowok jackcowok2@ wrote: Pak Jack, Bisa diperjelas maksudnya apa ?. Karena BANYAK sekali yg kena kasus BUMI, Banyak diantara mereka TIDAK tahu harus gimana, karena casenya memang RUMIT. Jadi advis pak Jack atau yg LAINya SANGAT SANGAT dibutuhkan oleh member OB PLEASE.
[obrolan-bandar] Hindari Saham TINS sementara Komoditas Timahnya konsolidasi
Saudara2, saya suggest jgn terpancing dengan past movement tins di atas 13500 dan sampai 14000 untuk expect fast profit. Saya sudah sangat lama mengamati saham Tins dari permulaan akhir tahun, dimana pada bulan juni Tins sempat anjlok sampe paling rendah 10400 padahal harga komoditasnya hanya U$ 13970. Pergerakkan komoditi Tins sejak late akhir bulan lalu sudah tidak normal. Tin sudah dan akan stay di average U$ 14000 , tembusnya di atas harga U$ 15000 tanpa fundamental yg jelas sudah menjadi pertanyaan, Fast surprise gain, fast surprise decline too (buktinya sudah turun U$ 800 dalam 1 hari). Asing kebanyakan juga menghindari BUMN seperti Tins karena ketidak transparean dalam laporan keuangan dan investors relation (jauh beda seperti PT INCO yg memaksimalkan benefit shareholders). Top 5 Bandar yg megang saham Tins sampai hari ini (Source. RTI HISTORICAL CHARTS - ADVANCED USER SUBSCRIBER ONLY) Broker Average BuyN.Val 1. DP Rp 11.160 149.2 Milyar 2 OD Rp 10.246 95.1 Milyar 3. AK Rp 9445 65.6 Milyar 4 DB Rp 11.381 55.9 Milyar 5 CC Rp 11.537 53.9 Milyar Seperti yg anda lihat, Average buy value mereka sangat rendah dibawah Rp 11.600 dan paling rendah Rp 9445. jadi jangan kaget kalau Tins bisa ditarik sampai dibawah Rp 12000, bandar masih untung kalau mereka hendak goyang2in pohon buat jatuin tupai2 kecil retail. Saya sangat yakin taktik sekuritas biasa kalau sudah tau suatu perusahaan akan melaporkan pendapatan yg magnificent, mrk akan goyangin dulu harganya buat jatuh (pas sekali dengan sikon skrng dengan komoditasnya lagi konsolidasi) trus baru dipungut dengan Discounted Value. Recommendation - BUY ON WEAKNESS (Rp 11.000-12.000) and sell on EARNING POST. Salam Olahraga
[obrolan-bandar] CPRO and RED Dragon
Aduh Saudara2 main saham riset ga sih? Jelas2 Red Dragon Group adalah bagian dari KELUARGA JIARAVANNON/CHERAVARANONT. BOS DHANIN memang mafia, nama group aja gahar sampe RED DRAGON. Alasan PT Surya Hidup Satwa menjual saham CPRO ke RED DRAGON GROUP soalnya DHANIN CHERAVARANONT (CEO CHAROEN) mau menguasai sebanyak mungkin saham CPRO untuk restructure ulang CPRO setelah mendapat DIPASENA dan mendapatkan keuntungan buat sendiri, ngapain kasih untung ke org laen keq PT Surya HIdup Satwa yg sudah habis manisnya, jadi didepak saja kepemilikan sahamnnya. Saya yakin sekali Group Charoen Akan membengkakkan nilai saham CPRO (seperti BISI, CPIN) ke nilai yang tinggi guna untuk mendapatkan leverage untuk loans , CAPEX in the future. Buktinya CPRO sudah menetapkan 1% placement saham di Rp 900 untuk mengetes air. moga moga saja mereka bisa membuat NEWS yg bagus yg pasti akan melejitkan sahamnya. Kalau Group Bajingan seperti James a'ka LIPPO Group bisa goreng sahamnnya, why not buat BOS DHANIN yg merupakan org kedua terkaya di THAILAND, James aja dikentutin. Kalau CPRO turun sampe 400, yang pasti saya akan membeli sahamnnya sebanyak mungkin. Biarin aja 1-2 Tahun WORST CASE SCENARIO , kita liat nanti bakal double valuenya enggak Think plz
[obrolan-bandar] Conspiracy di belakang CPRO - Overrated hati hati
Kepada YTH pemain2 saham jangan terpancing kepada isu2 sampah palsu yg disebar2 dari bandar2, Dipasena yg diisukan yg mempunyai value up to 20 Triliun itu OMONG KOSONG dan produksi Per tahun sampa 100 ribu TON itu sangat jauh. Saya punya bukti / references bahwa di tahun prima, Dipasena hanya mengekspor 19.854 Ton di 1996. http://www.ciptapangan.com/files/resourcesmodule/@random44643bf9ba640/1172028858_dipasena_saham_1.pdf Saya sudah cross-check info2 yg disebarkan bahwa CPRO akan mencapai Rp 1.000 - Rp 1.500 itu sangat groundless dan tidak terbukti. Walaupun kalau CPRO berhasil meng-akuisisi Dipasena, Total assetnya yg sekarang - Rp 3.92 Tril - reference Via RTI Company Emitent Profile, Dipasena - Rp 2 Tril - bukti reference - http://www.growfish.com.au/content.asp?contentid=2485 Total Asset - Rp 6 Triliun - KALAUPUN BERHASIL ACQUIRE DIPASENA Dengan kondisi di harga sama Rp 610 Per 46.92 (tinggi) benchmark industri 15-20x PBV 9.1 (tinggi) 9x dari book value after acquire DIpasena asumsi di harga Rp 610 Asset - 6T Liability - 4.68T (yes, akan naik soalnya dana yg diperoleh dari barclays and BNP sebagai pinjaman asumsi 2T) Equity - 1.32T Per 30-35x PBV 5-6x Saya sangat benci bandar2 yg misdirect masyarakat with their hardworking money. tolong dibales dengan kritik yg constructive.
[obrolan-bandar] Re: Conspiracy di belakang CPRO - Overrated hati hati
Kepada Yth saudara-saudara Untuk penjelasan yg lebih jelas tentang Dipasena ada di Majalah TRUST edisi No.30 Tahun V 14-20 Mei 2007. Buat summary, Dipasena merupakan perusahaan yang sudah lama tidak terurus dan terbengkalai dan mempunyai utang yg melangit terhadap petambak2. Koneksi saya di Recapital ada alasan kenapa group Recapital mundur karena urusan2 yg terbelit2 di Dipasena sangat susah sekali dipecahkan makanya mereka mengambil langkah mundur dgn alasan tidak memenuhi setoran. Memang CPRO mempunyai backing dan know-how yg sangat kuat di bidang tersebut tetapi kalaupun mereka dapat mengambil alih Dipasena , jgn harap masalah2 dipasena dapat diselesaikan dalam jangka waktu 1-2 Tahun. Menurut Analisis2 saya dari informasi dan koneksi yg available, kemungkinan contenders yg sangat kuat untuk mendapati Dipasena adalah CPRO dan Kemila. Jangan menganggap remeh PT kemila maupun contenders2 lainnya karena mereka bukan perusahaan Publik makanya informasi2 yg available sangat kurang ke pihak public. Backing2 keuangan mereka sangat kuat dan anda harus ingat yg menentukan pemenang adalah kemampuan finance first (siapa yg lebih berani bayar lebih tinggi) bukan bisnis plan. References - http://web.bisnis.com/edisi-cetak/edisi-harian/bursa/1id3792.html Bagi yg memang hendak gambling sedikit, memang sangat jelas KALAU chance CPRO memenangkan tender Dipasena (40%-50%chance of winning diantara 3 contender lainnya dengan rival Kemila yg runner up) Harga saham jelas2 akan naik karena efek psikologis dan isu2 yg sudah ditanamkan bandar yg akan menjadi Buying spree which leads to snowball nanti. Tetapi jangan mengharapkan kalau CPRO akan stay on top for long dengan operations after acquiring Dipasena, Menurut saya yg paling aman memang Buy on Rumors now, sell on news. Jangan rakus. dan kpd yth pak cuan hunter, mungkin anda belum mengerti tentang PER, untuk membuat advise panjang short, semakin rendah sesuatu Per, semakin bagus kesempatan ruang tumbuh suatu perusahaan ke depan yg akan otomatis mendorong harga saham naik. Mungkin ada saudara2 yg boleh menjelaskan lebih detail terhadap Pak Cuan hunter. Per industri perikanan tambak mempunyai benchmark di 15-20x dan itu sudah sangat overvalued. Saya harap advise2 saya dapat membantu saudara2 yg mempunyai kebimbangan dan mungkin akan sedikit lebih jelas sebelum anda mengambil keputusan menuju jalan yg menguntungkan atau merugikan anda. The choice is yours. Salam Olah Raga --- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, ©uan hunte® [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: Kalkulasi TA thd CPRO tersebut masih lebih baik dari TMPI (yang harganya bisa meroket 10x lipat): Aset: 615 Milyar (CPRO: 4 Triliun) PER: 455x (CPRO: 49x) PBV: 11x (CPRO:8.8x) kalau CPRO dikondisikan sama dengan TMPI, harga wajar CPRO bisa menjadi 455/49x590=Rp.5.478,- (PER -- earning oriented) On 5/18/07, ihsg 88 [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: Sayangilah uang anda. Bersikaplah realistis. Berdasarkan fundamental: Saya setuju dengan Bpk. Cendrawira. (Duit anda siap untuk dipinjam). Bila dipasena dimenangkan ini adalah perusahaan yang sakit (Petambak dan managemen selalu bermasalah). Bukan seperti CVRD yang mengakusisi N.TO Berdasarkan TA abnormal/digoreng. Berdasarkan Bandar ini harus hati-2. (Bandar yang goreng adalah kelompok yang menggoreng Pgas, Inco, Bmri dan TOTL.) Cuma berganti sekuritas saja. (Sekarang mereka menangani proyek Antm, CPro dan TMPI.) Hati-2 saja bila dipasena tidak di dapat/kalah langsung keesokan harinya gosong kembali ke Rp. 200 tanpa lot. On 5/18/07, cendrawira [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: Kepada YTH pemain2 saham jangan terpancing kepada isu2 sampah palsu yg disebar2 dari bandar2, Dipasena yg diisukan yg mempunyai value up to 20 Triliun itu OMONG KOSONG dan produksi Per tahun sampa 100 ribu TON itu sangat jauh. Saya punya bukti / references bahwa di tahun prima, Dipasena hanya mengekspor 19.854 Ton di 1996. http://www.ciptapangan.com/files/resourcesmodule/@random44643bf9ba640/1172028858_dipasena_saham_1.pdf Saya sudah cross-check info2 yg disebarkan bahwa CPRO akan mencapai Rp 1.000 - Rp 1.500 itu sangat groundless dan tidak terbukti. Walaupun kalau CPRO berhasil meng-akuisisi Dipasena, Total assetnya yg sekarang - Rp 3.92 Tril - reference Via RTI Company Emitent Profile, Dipasena - Rp 2 Tril - bukti reference - http://www.growfish.com.au/content.asp?contentid=2485 Total Asset - Rp 6 Triliun - KALAUPUN BERHASIL ACQUIRE DIPASENA Dengan kondisi di harga sama Rp 610 Per 46.92 (tinggi) benchmark industri 15-20x PBV 9.1 (tinggi) 9x dari book value after acquire DIpasena asumsi di harga Rp 610 Asset - 6T Liability - 4.68T (yes, akan naik soalnya dana yg diperoleh dari barclays and BNP sebagai pinjaman asumsi 2T) Equity - 1.32T Per 30-35x PBV 5-6x Saya sangat benci bandar2 yg misdirect masyarakat with their hardworking money. tolong
