[obrolan-bandar] Re: Pengumuman PDB america
lalu ngapain sampai diturunin 50 bp kalau ga gawat2 amat ... jawabannya nanti malam jam 8:30 ... --- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, indeks bei3000 [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: Bukannya MARKET sudah ANTISIPASI Pak? Contohnya Pengumuman Fed Rate Cut 2008/10/30, Kidod25 [EMAIL PROTECTED]: nanti malam ada pengumuman PDB, prediksi jelek seperti consumer confidence apakah akan di ignore???
[obrolan-bandar] Re: Pengumuman PDB america
--- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, indeks bei3000 [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: Bukannya MARKET sudah ANTISIPASI Pak? Contohnya Pengumuman Fed Rate Cut 2008/10/30, Kidod25 [EMAIL PROTECTED]: nanti malam ada pengumuman PDB, prediksi jelek seperti consumer confidence apakah akan di ignore??? sip : tbumi Melihat Nikkei yg naik tajam dan disertai penurunan bunga the FED ke 1%, maka kekhwatiran hasil GDP USA yg seandainya jelek, maka akan di ignore oleh market di DOWJ. Jadi kemungkinan besar DOWJ akan ikut rebound nantinya.
[obrolan-bandar] Re: Pengumuman PDB america
Hmm itu mungkin beda, diturunin 50 bps mungkin karena US sudah terlalu bikin sesak nafas negara-negara lain, banyak pada cari selamat ke US$, mata uang US$ mungkin harus diturunin, kasihan negara lain harus ikutan intervensi mata uangnya, bikin risk inflasi di masa depan kemana2. Kalau negara lain ikut jatuh tidak ada untungnya buat US sendiri. Yen dan US$ diturunin buat kasih kesempatan negara lain bernafas dulu. Mestinya diturunin 50 bps lagi tanpa negara lain turun rate. Melihat bentuk future kok meragukan GDP turun ya, minimal di atas ekspektasi ... Apalagi kemarin menit terakhir djia jatuh tanpa volume kan? Sekedar brainstorming, mungkin salah ... --- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, Kidod25 [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: lalu ngapain sampai diturunin 50 bp kalau ga gawat2 amat ... jawabannya nanti malam jam 8:30 ... --- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, indeks bei3000 indeksbei3000@ wrote: Bukannya MARKET sudah ANTISIPASI Pak? Contohnya Pengumuman Fed Rate Cut 2008/10/30, Kidod25 kidod25@: nanti malam ada pengumuman PDB, prediksi jelek seperti consumer confidence apakah akan di ignore???
[obrolan-bandar] Re: Pengumuman PDB america
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087sid=aYg9ZY5MwdIErefer=home Perlu dipuji si Bernanke :) Moga2 mau pada berpulang ke negara masing-masing. -- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, Hendra Santosa [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: Hmm itu mungkin beda, diturunin 50 bps mungkin karena US sudah terlalu bikin sesak nafas negara-negara lain, banyak pada cari selamat ke US$, mata uang US$ mungkin harus diturunin, kasihan negara lain harus ikutan intervensi mata uangnya, bikin risk inflasi di masa depan kemana2. Kalau negara lain ikut jatuh tidak ada untungnya buat US sendiri. Yen dan US$ diturunin buat kasih kesempatan negara lain bernafas dulu. Mestinya diturunin 50 bps lagi tanpa negara lain turun rate. Melihat bentuk future kok meragukan GDP turun ya, minimal di atas ekspektasi ... Apalagi kemarin menit terakhir djia jatuh tanpa volume kan? Sekedar brainstorming, mungkin salah ... --- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, Kidod25 kidod25@ wrote: lalu ngapain sampai diturunin 50 bp kalau ga gawat2 amat ... jawabannya nanti malam jam 8:30 ... --- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, indeks bei3000 indeksbei3000@ wrote: Bukannya MARKET sudah ANTISIPASI Pak? Contohnya Pengumuman Fed Rate Cut 2008/10/30, Kidod25 kidod25@: nanti malam ada pengumuman PDB, prediksi jelek seperti consumer confidence apakah akan di ignore???
Re: [obrolan-bandar] Re: Pengumuman PDB america
Memang gawat sekali, tetapi market sudah membuat perhitungan seberapa besar penurunan GDP US. Kalau sesuai perhitungan = I Told You So, Thak God I Had Prepare Di Bawah perhitungan = Damn .. it's Sucks Di atas perhitungan = Well, look's like we have a HOPE Sekarang tinggal lihat pengumuman nanti malam saja. U.S. Economy Probably Contracted as Consumer Spending Dropped By Shobhana Chandra [image: Enlarge Image/Details]http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=photossid=aD6b5tEmVC80 Oct. 30 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. economy probably shrank in the third quarter by the most since the 2001 recession just as Americans were deciding how to cast their ballots in the Nov. 4 elections. Gross domestic product contracted at a 0.5 percent annual rate from July to September, according to the median forecast of 75 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. The figure, the last major piece of economic data before the presidential election, compares with growth of 2.8 percent in the previous three months. The economic slump coincided with Democratic presidential nominee Barack Obamahttp://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=Barack+Obamasite=wnewsclient=wnewsproxystylesheet=wnewsoutput=xml_no_dtdie=UTF-8oe=UTF-8filter=pgetfields=wnnissort=date:D:S:d1's lead in public-opinion polls. A Bloomberg/Los Angeles Times survey taken Aug. 15-18 showed Republican nominee John McCainhttp://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=John+McCainsite=wnewsclient=wnewsproxystylesheet=wnewsoutput=xml_no_dtdie=UTF-8oe=UTF-8filter=pgetfields=wnnissort=date:D:S:d1with 42 percent support to Obama's 41 percent; five weeks later, as the credit crunch deepened, the poll showed Obama leading by 49 percent to 45 percent. ``There are multiple waves converging behind Obama,'' said James Lucierhttp://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=James+Luciersite=wnewsclient=wnewsproxystylesheet=wnewsoutput=xml_no_dtdie=UTF-8oe=UTF-8filter=pgetfields=wnnissort=date:D:S:d1, a senior political analyst at Capital Alpha Partners. The Commerce Department's GDP report is due at 8:30 a.m. in Washington; Bloomberg survey estimates range from a 1.2 percent rate of expansion to a contraction of 1.9 percent. The Federal Reserve yesterday warned of further ``downside risks' even after cutting interest rateshttp://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=FDTR%3AINDtwice this month and pumping billions of dollars into markets. The Commerce Department's report is due at 8:30 a.m. in Washington. Bloomberg survey estimates ranged from a 1.2 percent rate of expansion to a contraction of 1.9 percent. Half-Century Low The Fed yesterday cut the benchmark interest rate by a half percentage point to 1 percent, matching a half-century low. ``The intensification of financial-market turmoil is likely to exert additional restraint on spending, partly by further reducing the ability of households and businesses to obtain credit,'' the Fed's statement said. ``The pace of economic activity appears to have slowed markedly.'' The National Bureau of Economic Research, the Cambridge, Massachusetts-based official arbiter of U.S. economic cycles, has yet to call a recession. The group bases its assessment http://www.nber.org/cycles.html on indicators including GDP, employment, sales, incomes and industrial production, and usually takes six to 18 months to make a determination. According to the NBER, the last recession lasted from March to November 2001. CEOs See Recession Chief executive officers from Ford Motor Co., Starwood Hotels Resorts Worldwide Inc. and Caterpillar Inc. are among those in the past two months that have said the U.S. is in a recession. ``You might have a two- or three-quarter negative growth and then a slow pullout,'' General Electric Co.'s Chief Executive Officer Jeffrey Immelt said in an Oct. 24 Webcast. Government efforts to improve liquidity will ``take a while'' to work. GE's businesses, spanning jet engines, medical equipment and consumer finance, make it an economic bellwether. Consumer spendinghttp://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=GDPCTOT%25%3AIND, which accounts for more than two-thirds of the economy, fell at a 2.4 percent pace last quarter, the survey median shows. That would be the first drop since 1991 and the biggest since 1990. ``It was very much a quarter of transition from growth to a recession,'' said Peter Kretzmerhttp://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=Peter+Kretzmersite=wnewsclient=wnewsproxystylesheet=wnewsoutput=xml_no_dtdie=UTF-8oe=UTF-8filter=pgetfields=wnnissort=date:D:S:d1, a senior economist at Bank of America Corp. in New York. ``The fourth quarter will be weaker. The credit crisis is at the center of everything.'' Appliances, Cookware Whirlpool Corp., the world's largest appliance maker, this week said it'll cut 5,000 jobs, and forecast lower annual profit as the credit crunch clipped sales. Williams-Sonoma Inc., the biggest U.S. gourmet-cookware chain, yesterday forecast a third- quarter loss because sales slowed ``significantly'' during the past six weeks.
Re: [obrolan-bandar] Re: Pengumuman PDB america
sebenernya indeks bei 3000 udah ngasih estimasi lengkap dari survey bloomberg,dan semua estimasi nya jelek sih pakkalo bocoran yang tepat wah susah pak,kecuali ada kenalan dari pihak fed hehehecuman kalo analis udah pesimis biasa nya sih standar eror nya paling 2%-5% batas atas/bawah dari data di bawah ini saya ambil dari posting --indeksbei 3000 sekalian nanti baca posting pak indeks bei 3000 ya pak biar lebih detail :p GDPPersonal Initial AnnualConsump. Claims QOQ% QOQ% ,000's Median -0.5%-2.4% 475 Average -0.6%-1.9% 474 High Forecast 1.2% 1.3% 485 Low Forecast -1.9%-3.5% 460 Number of Participants 75 14 41 Previous 2.8% 1.2% 478 kalau cut rate memang sudah direncanakan dari jauh2 hari, setau saya dari berita2 yang saya bacabahkan beberapa economis menganggap telat rate cut fed harus nya dari 2 bulan yang laluhehehe,jadi kalo saya pikir sih gak ada hubungan nya ama gdp yang bakal keluar nanti malem trs beberapa bank di eropa saya perhatikan financial report quartaly sudah mengindikasikan perbaikan earning,jadi potensi gdp us berada di atas estimasi analis peluang nya antara 55:45 ( 55% bagus ,45 % jelek )ini kalo menurut saya pak,jadi pasti banyak salah nya huehehehe yah paling kita cuman bisa hope for the best aja paksemoga reaksi pasar bisa bagus, jadi vlotalitas pasar dunia bisa agak mendingan o iya denger2 ---please read this to : http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/10/29/AR2008102902605.html?hpid=topnews Treasury, FDIC Near Deal on Mortgage Aid U.S. Would Guarantee Distressed Home Loans hehehe - Original Message - From: Ari Sugiarto Santoso [EMAIL PROTECTED] To: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Sent: Thursday, October 30, 2008 2:34 PM Subject: Re: [obrolan-bandar] Re: Pengumuman PDB america pak riza kira-kira pengumuman GDP nanti malam gimana ya? apa ada bocoran? apa mungkin turun lebih dari estimasi, shg tadi malam pemerintah AS sudah buru-buru cut FED rate? tq 2008/10/30 Meizal [EMAIL PROTECTED]: untk referensi...dapet dari temen hehehe - Original Message - From: Hendra Santosa To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com Sent: Thursday, October 30, 2008 2:08 PM Subject: [obrolan-bandar] Re: Pengumuman PDB america Hmm itu mungkin beda, diturunin 50 bps mungkin karena US sudah terlalu bikin sesak nafas negara-negara lain, banyak pada cari selamat ke US$, mata uang US$ mungkin harus diturunin, kasihan negara lain harus ikutan intervensi mata uangnya, bikin risk inflasi di masa depan kemana2. Kalau negara lain ikut jatuh tidak ada untungnya buat US sendiri. Yen dan US$ diturunin buat kasih kesempatan negara lain bernafas dulu. Mestinya diturunin 50 bps lagi tanpa negara lain turun rate. Melihat bentuk future kok meragukan GDP turun ya, minimal di atas ekspektasi ... Apalagi kemarin menit terakhir djia jatuh tanpa volume kan? Sekedar brainstorming, mungkin salah ... --- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, Kidod25 [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: lalu ngapain sampai diturunin 50 bp kalau ga gawat2 amat ... jawabannya nanti malam jam 8:30 ... --- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, indeks bei3000 indeksbei3000@ wrote: Bukannya MARKET sudah ANTISIPASI Pak? Contohnya Pengumuman Fed Rate Cut 2008/10/30, Kidod25 kidod25@: nanti malam ada pengumuman PDB, prediksi jelek seperti consumer confidence apakah akan di ignore???
Re: [obrolan-bandar] Re: Pengumuman PDB america
GDP advance turun 0.3%, jobbles claim tetap di 475.000. Berarti? --- On Thu, 10/30/08, indeks bei3000 [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: From: indeks bei3000 [EMAIL PROTECTED] Subject: Re: [obrolan-bandar] Re: Pengumuman PDB america To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com Date: Thursday, October 30, 2008, 2:12 PM Memang gawat sekali, tetapi market sudah membuat perhitungan seberapa besar penurunan GDP US. Kalau sesuai perhitungan = I Told You So, Thak God I Had Prepare Di Bawah perhitungan = Damn .. it's Sucks Di atas perhitungan = Well, look's like we have a HOPE Sekarang tinggal lihat pengumuman nanti malam saja. U.S. Economy Probably Contracted as Consumer Spending Dropped By Shobhana Chandra Oct. 30 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. economy probably shrank in the third quarter by the most since the 2001 recession just as Americans were deciding how to cast their ballots in the Nov. 4 elections. Gross domestic product contracted at a 0.5 percent annual rate from July to September, according to the median forecast of 75 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. The figure, the last major piece of economic data before the presidential election, compares with growth of 2.8 percent in the previous three months. The economic slump coincided with Democratic presidential nominee Barack Obama's lead in public-opinion polls. A Bloomberg/Los Angeles Times survey taken Aug. 15-18 showed Republican nominee John McCain with 42 percent support to Obama's 41 percent; five weeks later, as the credit crunch deepened, the poll showed Obama leading by 49 percent to 45 percent. ``There are multiple waves converging behind Obama,'' said James Lucier, a senior political analyst at Capital Alpha Partners. The Commerce Department's GDP report is due at 8:30 a.m. in Washington; Bloomberg survey estimates range from a 1.2 percent rate of expansion to a contraction of 1.9 percent. The Federal Reserve yesterday warned of further ``downside risks' even after cutting interest rates twice this month and pumping billions of dollars into markets. The Commerce Department's report is due at 8:30 a.m. in Washington. Bloomberg survey estimates ranged from a 1.2 percent rate of expansion to a contraction of 1.9 percent. Half-Century Low The Fed yesterday cut the benchmark interest rate by a half percentage point to 1 percent, matching a half-century low. ``The intensification of financial-market turmoil is likely to exert additional restraint on spending, partly by further reducing the ability of households and businesses to obtain credit,'' the Fed's statement said. ``The pace of economic activity appears to have slowed markedly.'' The National Bureau of Economic Research, the Cambridge, Massachusetts- based official arbiter of U.S. economic cycles, has yet to call a recession. The group bases its assessment on indicators including GDP, employment, sales, incomes and industrial production, and usually takes six to 18 months to make a determination. According to the NBER, the last recession lasted from March to November 2001. CEOs See Recession Chief executive officers from Ford Motor Co., Starwood Hotels Resorts Worldwide Inc. and Caterpillar Inc. are among those in the past two months that have said the U.S. is in a recession. ``You might have a two- or three-quarter negative growth and then a slow pullout,'' General Electric Co.'s Chief Executive Officer Jeffrey Immelt said in an Oct. 24 Webcast. Government efforts to improve liquidity will ``take a while'' to work. GE's businesses, spanning jet engines, medical equipment and consumer finance, make it an economic bellwether. Consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of the economy, fell at a 2.4 percent pace last quarter, the survey median shows. That would be the first drop since 1991 and the biggest since 1990. ``It was very much a quarter of transition from growth to a recession,'' said Peter Kretzmer, a senior economist at Bank of America Corp. in New York. ``The fourth quarter will be weaker. The credit crisis is at the center of everything.'' Appliances, Cookware Whirlpool Corp., the world's largest appliance maker, this week said it'll cut 5,000 jobs, and forecast lower annual profit as the credit crunch clipped sales. Williams-Sonoma Inc., the biggest U.S. gourmet-cookware chain, yesterday forecast a third- quarter loss because sales slowed ``significantly'' during the past six weeks. Industry figures showed cars and light trucks sold at a 12.5 million annual pace in September, the fewest since 1993. October sales may drop to an 11 million pace, according to a Deutsche Bank AG estimate. ``These are truly unimaginable times for our industry,'' Robert Nardelli, chief executive officer of Chrysler LLC, said in a statement last week. The third-largest U.S. automaker will cut 25 percent of salaried workers and reduce production. Home construction, which has subtracted from
