Memang gawat sekali, tetapi market sudah membuat perhitungan seberapa besar penurunan GDP US. Kalau sesuai perhitungan = I Told You So, Thak God I Had Prepare Di Bawah perhitungan = Damn .. it's Sucks Di atas perhitungan = Well, look's like we have a HOPE
Sekarang tinggal lihat pengumuman nanti malam saja. U.S. Economy Probably Contracted as Consumer Spending Dropped By Shobhana Chandra [image: Enlarge Image/Details]<http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=photos&sid=aD6b5tEmVC80> Oct. 30 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. economy probably shrank in the third quarter by the most since the 2001 recession just as Americans were deciding how to cast their ballots in the Nov. 4 elections. Gross domestic product contracted at a 0.5 percent annual rate from July to September, according to the median forecast of 75 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. The figure, the last major piece of economic data before the presidential election, compares with growth of 2.8 percent in the previous three months. The economic slump coincided with Democratic presidential nominee Barack Obama<http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=Barack+Obama&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:D:S:d1>'s lead in public-opinion polls. A Bloomberg/Los Angeles Times survey taken Aug. 15-18 showed Republican nominee John McCain<http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=John+McCain&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:D:S:d1>with 42 percent support to Obama's 41 percent; five weeks later, as the credit crunch deepened, the poll showed Obama leading by 49 percent to 45 percent. ``There are multiple waves converging behind Obama,'' said James Lucier<http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=James+Lucier&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:D:S:d1>, a senior political analyst at Capital Alpha Partners. The Commerce Department's GDP report is due at 8:30 a.m. in Washington; Bloomberg survey estimates range from a 1.2 percent rate of expansion to a contraction of 1.9 percent. The Federal Reserve yesterday warned of further ``downside risks' even after cutting interest rates<http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=FDTR%3AIND>twice this month and pumping billions of dollars into markets. The Commerce Department's report is due at 8:30 a.m. in Washington. Bloomberg survey estimates ranged from a 1.2 percent rate of expansion to a contraction of 1.9 percent. Half-Century Low The Fed yesterday cut the benchmark interest rate by a half percentage point to 1 percent, matching a half-century low. ``The intensification of financial-market turmoil is likely to exert additional restraint on spending, partly by further reducing the ability of households and businesses to obtain credit,'' the Fed's statement said. ``The pace of economic activity appears to have slowed markedly.'' The National Bureau of Economic Research, the Cambridge, Massachusetts-based official arbiter of U.S. economic cycles, has yet to call a recession. The group bases its assessment <http://www.nber.org/cycles.html> on indicators including GDP, employment, sales, incomes and industrial production, and usually takes six to 18 months to make a determination. According to the NBER, the last recession lasted from March to November 2001. CEOs See Recession Chief executive officers from Ford Motor Co., Starwood Hotels & Resorts Worldwide Inc. and Caterpillar Inc. are among those in the past two months that have said the U.S. is in a recession. ``You might have a two- or three-quarter negative growth and then a slow pullout,'' General Electric Co.'s Chief Executive Officer Jeffrey Immelt said in an Oct. 24 Webcast. Government efforts to improve liquidity will ``take a while'' to work. GE's businesses, spanning jet engines, medical equipment and consumer finance, make it an economic bellwether. Consumer spending<http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=GDPCTOT%25%3AIND>, which accounts for more than two-thirds of the economy, fell at a 2.4 percent pace last quarter, the survey median shows. That would be the first drop since 1991 and the biggest since 1990. ``It was very much a quarter of transition from growth to a recession,'' said Peter Kretzmer<http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=Peter+Kretzmer&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:D:S:d1>, a senior economist at Bank of America Corp. in New York. ``The fourth quarter will be weaker. The credit crisis is at the center of everything.'' Appliances, Cookware Whirlpool Corp., the world's largest appliance maker, this week said it'll cut 5,000 jobs, and forecast lower annual profit as the credit crunch clipped sales. Williams-Sonoma Inc., the biggest U.S. gourmet-cookware chain, yesterday forecast a third- quarter loss because sales slowed ``significantly'' during the past six weeks. Industry figures <http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=SAARTOT%3AIND>showed cars and light trucks sold at a 12.5 million annual pace in September, the fewest since 1993. October sales may drop to an 11 million pace, according to a Deutsche Bank AG estimate. ``These are truly unimaginable times for our industry,'' Robert Nardelli, chief executive officer of Chrysler LLC, said in a statement last week. The third-largest U.S. automaker will cut 25 percent of salaried workers and reduce production. Home construction, which has subtracted<http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=GDP%25RES%3AIND>from economic growth since the first three months of 2006, probably dropped again last quarter, economists said. Trade, which made its biggest contribution<http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=GDP%25NETX%3AIND>to GDP in three decades in the second quarter, probably provided less support in the last three months, and may continue to moderate as overseas demand for U.S. goods cools. The U.K. economy contracted in the third quarter by the most since 1990, while Japan's government acknowledged this month that the country has probably entered its first recession in six years. Bloomberg Survey ================================================================ GDP Personal Initial Annual Consump. Claims QOQ% QOQ% ,000's ================================================================ Date of Release 10/30 10/30 10/30 Observation Period 3Q A 3Q A Oct. 25 ---------------------------------------------------------------- Median -0.5% -2.4% 475 Average -0.6% -1.9% 474 High Forecast 1.2% 1.3% 485 Low Forecast -1.9% -3.5% 460 Number of Participants 75 14 41 Previous 2.8% 1.2% 478 ---------------------------------------------------------------- 4CAST Ltd. 0.1% --- 480 Action Economics -0.5% --- 475 AIG Investments -0.3% --- --- Aletti Gestielle SGR -0.6% -3.0% 470 Argus Research Corp. 0.0% --- --- Banc of America Securitie -0.5% --- --- Bank of Tokyo- Mitsubishi -0.1% --- 475 Bantleon Bank AG -1.0% --- --- Barclays Capital -0.5% --- 475 BMO Capital Markets -1.1% --- 485 BNP Paribas -1.3% --- 473 Briefing.com 0.3% --- 470 CIBC World Markets -0.7% --- --- Citi -0.8% --- 470 ClearView Economics -1.9% --- --- Commerzbank AG -0.8% --- 470 Credit Suisse 0.0% --- 480 Daiwa Securities America -0.8% --- --- Danske Bank -1.2% -3.2% --- DekaBank -0.3% -3.0% --- Desjardins Group -0.3% --- 485 Deutsche Bank Securities -1.3% --- 485 Deutsche Postbank AG -0.1% --- --- Dresdner Kleinwort -0.5% --- --- DZ Bank -0.8% --- --- First Trust Advisors -0.3% --- 482 Fortis -0.7% --- --- FTN Financial -0.9% --- --- Goldman, Sachs & Co. 0.0% --- --- H&R Block Financial Advis -0.5% -2.3% 482 Helaba -0.5% --- --- Herrmann Forecasting -0.3% --- 473 High Frequency Economics -1.0% --- 470 IDEAglobal -1.0% -1.1% 475 IHS Global Insight -0.2% -3.5% --- Informa Global Markets -0.8% --- 470 ING Financial Markets -1.8% --- 480 Insight Economics -0.5% --- 475 Intesa-SanPaulo -1.1% --- --- J.P. Morgan Chase -0.5% --- 475 JPMorgan Private Client -0.8% --- 475 Landesbank Berlin -0.6% --- 470 Landesbank BW 0.6% --- --- Maria Fiorini Ramirez Inc -0.5% --- 470 Merk Investments -0.5% -0.9% --- Merrill Lynch 0.5% --- 475 MFC Global Investment Man -1.0% -1.0% 470 Moody's Economy.com -0.5% --- 475 Morgan Keegan & Co. -1.3% --- --- Morgan Stanley & Co. -0.6% --- --- National City Corporation -0.3% -2.4% --- Natixis -0.4% -2.5% --- Newedge -1.2% -1.3% --- Nomura Securities Intl. -0.5% --- --- Nord/LB 0.4% --- 470 Okasan Securities -1.5% --- --- PNC Bank -1.0% --- --- RBS Greenwich Capital 1.2% --- --- Ried, Thunberg & Co. -0.5% --- 475 Schneider Trading Associa 0.1% -0.9% 460 Scotia Capital -1.0% --- 480 Societe Generale 0.0% -2.5% --- Standard Chartered -1.0% --- --- Stone & McCarthy Research -0.8% --- 470 TD Securities -1.2% --- 460 Thomson Financial/IFR 0.5% --- 470 Tullett Prebon -0.5% --- 470 UBS Securities LLC -1.0% --- 475 Unicredit MIB 0.5% --- --- University of Maryland -0.5% 1.3% --- Wachovia Corp. -0.7% --- 460 Wells Fargo & Co. -0.8% --- 475 WestLB AG -0.7% --- --- Westpac Banking Co. -0.5% --- 480 Wrightson Associates -0.5% --- 475 ================================================================ 2008/10/30, Kidod25 <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>: > > lalu ngapain sampai diturunin 50 bp kalau ga gawat2 amat ... > jawabannya nanti malam jam 8:30 ... > > --- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com <obrolan-bandar%40yahoogroups.com>, > "indeks bei3000" > <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > > > > Bukannya MARKET sudah ANTISIPASI Pak? > > Contohnya Pengumuman Fed Rate Cut > > > > > > > > 2008/10/30, Kidod25 <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>: > > > > > > nanti malam ada pengumuman PDB, prediksi jelek seperti consumer > > > confidence apakah akan di ignore??? > > > > > > > > > > > > > >
