Re: [obrolan-bandar] Upgrade ENRG TP 1800 ML

[Dean Earwicker]

Kalau mau mempertimbangkan analyst research, sebaiknya pertimbangkan
juga*mana yang punya client base (aka money) yang besar.
*
The bad news is, salah satunya adalah Merril Lynch :(

Maybe they're too pessimistic, but in the other hand, *they have the ability
to make things happen. (!)*

Pernah nggak terpikir, misalnya saham  sekarang harganya 6000. Kalau
analis A bilang saham  mau ke 8.000, analis B bilang ke 4000, maka
kemungkinan *kedua target itu tercapai*, dengan kata lain, kemungkinan range
nya adalah +/- 2000 (*plus diskon*)

Tinggal kita tebak, mau turun baru naik atau sebaliknya.

Di 2007 ini terjadi di PTBA, PGAS (!) dan ANTM, dan mungkin TLKM (cmiiw)

Kok bisa dua target atas bawah tercapai? Wew, tanya sama bandarnya aja
hehe... janjian kale..

Karena analist perusahaan besar pasti gak asal cuap, ada "pride" dibaliknya,
karena kunci sukses di bisnis finansial adalah "trust".

Gimana bisa dapet trust kalau target analis gak kecapai (atas maupun bawah)
? heheh... tapi ini gak selalu kejadian, kadang juga analis bisa meleset
jauh dari kenyataan, either salah ketik atau salah gaul..
*
Size does matter. 'nuff sed.*


Regards,
DE

On Dec 19, 2007 2:31 PM, Sang Pemula <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:

>   Kadang2 analis sekuiritas itu gak netral juga, mereka ngeluarin
> rekomendasi berdasarkan pesanan dan kepentingan2 tertentu. Patut dicatat,
> analisis2 yg dikeluarkan kan berdasarkan asumsi2, asumsi2 inilah yg lantas
> diutak atik supaya menghasilkan nilai wajar tertentu yg mereka bilang target
> price.
>
> Dlm hal ini saya lbh percaya analis teknikal, ga mungkin bohong, kan
> grafiknya langsung keliatan.
> Kalo fundamental ya itu tadi, asumsi nya bisa di utak atik semau2nya.
> Tinggal reasoning nya aja dibuat biar tampak masuk akal.
>
> Contoh :
> Harga rata2 minyak thn dpn, 100$, bisa masuk akal, alasannya trend harga
> minyak msh naik, konflik di tim teng blm selesai, perubahan iklim membuat
> musim dingin yg dingin luar biasa menimbulkan tekanan pd sisi permintaan
> dll.
> Sebaliknya, 70$, bisa jg masuk akal, alasannya, harga minyak saat ini sdh
> terlalu tinggi dan sifatnya spekulatif tdk mencerminkan keseimbangan antara
> penawaran dan permintaan. Negara2 OPEC jg siap menggenjot produksinya,
> Konflik di Irak hampir usai, apalagi ketika Bush diganti dgn presiden dr
> demokrat yg kebijakan LN nya lbh bersahabat & tdk konfrontatif.
>
> Yg bagusnya kalo ada di milis ini, yg telaten mencatat rekomendasi2 dr
> analis2, lalu nanti ditunggu dilihat kenyataannya, setelah itu hasilnya
> diumumkan di milis ini, so kita2 tau analis mana yg sering ngaco, mana yg
> emang beneran melakukan analisa jujur.
>

Re: [obrolan-bandar] Upgrade ENRG TP 1800 ML

[Surata nyoman]

Apakah ada yang mengetahui production split  dalam
kontrak  Kangean  PSC berapa persen?
Umumnya kontrak gas PSC 70 : 30 = GoI : kontraktor.
Kontraktor Kangean adalah ENRG dan JAPEX ,jadi
perkiraan dari 20-30 ribu BOePD tersebut apakah ENRG 
memperoleh bagian bersih 15% atau 3000 BOEPD ?

--- Andrew wijaya <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:

> Yg percaya analis hanya investor pemula, yg udah pro
> mustahil mau percaya
> ama analis. Coba tanya aja yg sdh malang melintang
> di pasar modal lokal dan
> dunia. Analis ibarat Sales Promotion, ini bisa naik
> ke sekian, dan bila udah
> ke level tsb akan ke sekian lagi. Begitu pun turun
> ada saja teori dan
> omongannya. Tobat aja ama analis, cukup sudah...
> 
> 2007/12/19, Andrew wijaya <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>:
> >
> > Kalo saat Lapindo sdh final keluar dari ENRG
> mungkin anda sudah memperoleh
> > ENRG di 3000-an kali. hehehe... Itung aja nilai
> kapasitas produksi
> > 25ribu-30ribu BOEP, anda akan memperoleh hasilnya
> apalagi ada penyesuaian
> > harga jual beberapa waktu terakhir, soal bila
> harga turun penjualan mereka
> > umumnya sdh terkontrak diatas 3-10 tahun. Ini akan
> menjadi BUMI-BUMI
> > berikutnya seperti waktu dulu ketika tidak ada yg
> menyangkah harga BUMI
> > seperti saat ini termasuk saya sendiri. No body
> know
> >
> > 2007/12/19, Data Saham <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>:
> > >
> > >kapan ya ML Upgrade ANTM ke 6.000...masak cmn
> dihargai 1.750, berarti
> > > walaupun ada Lapindo Brantas yang bikin banjir
> lumpur,  ENRG lebih bagus dr
> > > ANTM  hahaha.analisnya mesti diaudit nih
> > >
> > > *Tazmania Devil <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>* wrote:
> > >
> > >  *More trading upside, PO raised to Rp1,800***
> **
> > >  Although the stock has appreciated by 84% over
> the past three months
> > > and
> > > trades at a 9% premium to our base case NAV, we
> still see trading upside
> > > on the
> > > stock based on EV-to-reserves comparison and
> bull case NAV. We reiterate
> > > Buy
> > > with a 33% higher PO of Rp1,800, or 25% upside.
> > > ** *Higher oil price assumption lifted EPS*
> > > Merrill Lynch's energy team has raised WTI oil
> price forecast for 2008
> > > from
> > > US$73/bbl to US$82/bbl, for 2009 and long-term
> from US$60 to US$70. As
> > > such,
> > > we increased 2008 EPS estimates by 14% and
> 2009's by 15%.
> > > ** *Pricing of uncontracted gas – an important
> swing factor*
> > > Between now and 2012, we estimate ENRG will
> produce 642 bcf of natural
> > > gas
> > > (gross), 159 bcf of which is un-contracted. Our
> NAV is highly sensitive
> > > to the pricing
> > > of this gas. We believe the industry regulator
> will soon issue a gas
> > > price formula that
> > > would allow aggressive price hikes – a positive
> for both upstream and
> > > pipe
> > > operators. Our NAV ranges from Rp1,321 to
> Rp1,696 based on sensitivity
> > > analysis.
> > > ** *Looks attractive based on EV-to-reserves
> comparison*
> > > EV-to- reserves (2P) comparison highlights ENRG
> as one of the value
> > > stocks, at
> > > US$9.9/boe. ENRG may offer strong inorganic
> growth in reserves, given
> > > Indonesia's focus on ramping up oil exploration
> and ENRG's political
> > > clout. In past
> > > transactions, ENRG purchased THP at an implied
> valuation of US$3.4/boe,
> > > and
> > > sold part of Kangean at as much as US$4.7/boe,
> by our calculation.
> > >
> > >
> > >  --
> > > Be a better friend, newshound, and know-it-all
> with Yahoo! Mobile. Try
> > > it
>
now.
> > >
> > >   
> > >
> >
> >
> 



  

Looking for last minute shopping deals?  
Find them fast with Yahoo! Search.  
http://tools.search.yahoo.com/newsearch/category.php?category=shopping

Re: [obrolan-bandar] Upgrade ENRG TP 1800 ML

[Dean Earwicker]

Kalau mau mempertimbangkan analyst research, sebaiknya pertimbangkan
juga*mana yang punya client base (aka duwit) yang besar.
*
The bad news is, salah satunya adalah Merril Lynch :(

Maybe they're too pessimistic, but in the other hand, they have the ability
to make things happen. (!)

Pernah nggak terpikir, misalnya saham  sekarang harganya 6000. Kalau
analis A bilang saham  mau ke 8.000, analis B bilang ke 4000, maka
kemungkinan *kedua target itu tercapai*, dengan kata lain, VOLATILITY range
nya adalah +/- 2000 (*plus diskon*)

Tinggal kita tebak, mau turun baru naik atau sebaliknya.

Di 2007 ini terjadi di PTBA, PGAS (!) dan ANTM, dan mungkin TLKM (cmiiw)

Kok bisa dua target atas bawah tercapai? Wew, tanya sama bandarnya aja
hehe... janjian kale..

Karena analist perusahaan besar pasti gak asal cuap, ada "pride" dibaliknya,
karena kunci sukses di bisnis finansial adalah "trust".

Gimana bisa dapet trust kalau target analis gak kecapai (atas maupun bawah)
? heheh...

Size does matter. 'nuff sed.


Regards,
DE

On Dec 19, 2007 2:31 PM, Sang Pemula <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:

>   Kadang2 analis sekuiritas itu gak netral juga, mereka ngeluarin
> rekomendasi berdasarkan pesanan dan kepentingan2 tertentu. Patut dicatat,
> analisis2 yg dikeluarkan kan berdasarkan asumsi2, asumsi2 inilah yg lantas
> diutak atik supaya menghasilkan nilai wajar tertentu yg mereka bilang target
> price.
>
> Dlm hal ini saya lbh percaya analis teknikal, ga mungkin bohong, kan
> grafiknya langsung keliatan.
> Kalo fundamental ya itu tadi, asumsi nya bisa di utak atik semau2nya.
> Tinggal reasoning nya aja dibuat biar tampak masuk akal.
>
> Contoh :
> Harga rata2 minyak thn dpn, 100$, bisa masuk akal, alasannya trend harga
> minyak msh naik, konflik di tim teng blm selesai, perubahan iklim membuat
> musim dingin yg dingin luar biasa menimbulkan tekanan pd sisi permintaan
> dll.
> Sebaliknya, 70$, bisa jg masuk akal, alasannya, harga minyak saat ini sdh
> terlalu tinggi dan sifatnya spekulatif tdk mencerminkan keseimbangan antara
> penawaran dan permintaan. Negara2 OPEC jg siap menggenjot produksinya,
> Konflik di Irak hampir usai, apalagi ketika Bush diganti dgn presiden dr
> demokrat yg kebijakan LN nya lbh bersahabat & tdk konfrontatif.
>
> Yg bagusnya kalo ada di milis ini, yg telaten mencatat rekomendasi2 dr
> analis2, lalu nanti ditunggu dilihat kenyataannya, setelah itu hasilnya
> diumumkan di milis ini, so kita2 tau analis mana yg sering ngaco, mana yg
> emang beneran melakukan analisa jujur.
>
>
> - Original Message 
> From: Data Saham <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
> To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com
> Sent: Wednesday, December 19, 2007 2:20:36 PM
> Subject: Re: [obrolan-bandar] Upgrade ENRG TP 1800 ML
>
>  kapan ya ML Upgrade ANTM ke 6.000...masak cmn dihargai 1.750, berarti
> walaupun ada Lapindo Brantas yang bikin banjir lumpur,  ENRG lebih bagus dr
> ANTM  hahaha.analisny a mesti diaudit nih
>
> *Tazmania Devil <[EMAIL PROTECTED] co.id>* wrote:
>
>  *More trading upside, PO raised to Rp1,800*
>  Although the stock has appreciated by 84% over the past three months and
> trades at a 9% premium to our base case NAV, we still see trading upside
> on the
> stock based on EV-to-reserves comparison and bull case NAV. We reiterate
> Buy
> with a 33% higher PO of Rp1,800, or 25% upside.
> * **Higher oil price assumption lifted EPS*
> Merrill Lynch's energy team has raised WTI oil price forecast for 2008
> from
> US$73/bbl to US$82/bbl, for 2009 and long-term from US$60 to US$70. As
> such,
> we increased 2008 EPS estimates by 14% and 2009's by 15%.
> * **Pricing of uncontracted gas – an important swing factor*
> Between now and 2012, we estimate ENRG will produce 642 bcf of natural gas
> (gross), 159 bcf of which is un-contracted. Our NAV is highly sensitive to
> the pricing
> of this gas. We believe the industry regulator will soon issue a gas price
> formula that
> would allow aggressive price hikes – a positive for both upstream and pipe
> operators. Our NAV ranges from Rp1,321 to Rp1,696 based on sensitivity
> analysis.
> * **Looks attractive based on EV-to-reserves comparison*
> EV-to- reserves (2P) comparison highlights ENRG as one of the value
> stocks, at
> US$9.9/boe. ENRG may offer strong inorganic growth in reserves, given
> Indonesia's focus on ramping up oil exploration and ENRG's political
> clout.. In past
> transactions, ENRG purchased THP at an implied valuation of US$3.4/boe,
> and
> sold part of Kangean at as much as US$4.7/boe, by our calculation.
>
>
> --
>
>
> --
> Be a better friend, newshound, and know-it-all with Yahoo! Mobile. Try it
> now.<http://us.rd.yahoo.com/evt=51733/*http://mobile.yahoo.com/;_ylt=Ahu06i62sR8HDtDypao8Wcj9tAcJ+>
>  
>

Re: [obrolan-bandar] Upgrade ENRG TP 1800 ML

[Andrew wijaya]

Yg percaya analis hanya investor pemula, yg udah pro mustahil mau percaya
ama analis. Coba tanya aja yg sdh malang melintang di pasar modal lokal dan
dunia. Analis ibarat Sales Promotion, ini bisa naik ke sekian, dan bila udah
ke level tsb akan ke sekian lagi. Begitu pun turun ada saja teori dan
omongannya. Tobat aja ama analis, cukup sudah...

2007/12/19, Andrew wijaya <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>:
>
> Kalo saat Lapindo sdh final keluar dari ENRG mungkin anda sudah memperoleh
> ENRG di 3000-an kali. hehehe... Itung aja nilai kapasitas produksi
> 25ribu-30ribu BOEP, anda akan memperoleh hasilnya apalagi ada penyesuaian
> harga jual beberapa waktu terakhir, soal bila harga turun penjualan mereka
> umumnya sdh terkontrak diatas 3-10 tahun. Ini akan menjadi BUMI-BUMI
> berikutnya seperti waktu dulu ketika tidak ada yg menyangkah harga BUMI
> seperti saat ini termasuk saya sendiri. No body know
>
> 2007/12/19, Data Saham <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>:
> >
> >kapan ya ML Upgrade ANTM ke 6.000...masak cmn dihargai 1.750, berarti
> > walaupun ada Lapindo Brantas yang bikin banjir lumpur,  ENRG lebih bagus dr
> > ANTM  hahaha.analisnya mesti diaudit nih
> >
> > *Tazmania Devil <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>* wrote:
> >
> >  *More trading upside, PO raised to Rp1,800*** **
> >  Although the stock has appreciated by 84% over the past three months
> > and
> > trades at a 9% premium to our base case NAV, we still see trading upside
> > on the
> > stock based on EV-to-reserves comparison and bull case NAV. We reiterate
> > Buy
> > with a 33% higher PO of Rp1,800, or 25% upside.
> > ** *Higher oil price assumption lifted EPS*
> > Merrill Lynch's energy team has raised WTI oil price forecast for 2008
> > from
> > US$73/bbl to US$82/bbl, for 2009 and long-term from US$60 to US$70. As
> > such,
> > we increased 2008 EPS estimates by 14% and 2009's by 15%.
> > ** *Pricing of uncontracted gas – an important swing factor*
> > Between now and 2012, we estimate ENRG will produce 642 bcf of natural
> > gas
> > (gross), 159 bcf of which is un-contracted. Our NAV is highly sensitive
> > to the pricing
> > of this gas. We believe the industry regulator will soon issue a gas
> > price formula that
> > would allow aggressive price hikes – a positive for both upstream and
> > pipe
> > operators. Our NAV ranges from Rp1,321 to Rp1,696 based on sensitivity
> > analysis.
> > ** *Looks attractive based on EV-to-reserves comparison*
> > EV-to- reserves (2P) comparison highlights ENRG as one of the value
> > stocks, at
> > US$9.9/boe. ENRG may offer strong inorganic growth in reserves, given
> > Indonesia's focus on ramping up oil exploration and ENRG's political
> > clout. In past
> > transactions, ENRG purchased THP at an implied valuation of US$3.4/boe,
> > and
> > sold part of Kangean at as much as US$4.7/boe, by our calculation.
> >
> >
> >  --
> > Be a better friend, newshound, and know-it-all with Yahoo! Mobile. Try
> > it 
> > now.
> >
> >   
> >
>
>

Re: [obrolan-bandar] Upgrade ENRG TP 1800 ML

[Andrew wijaya]

Kalo saat Lapindo sdh final keluar dari ENRG mungkin anda sudah memperoleh
ENRG di 3000-an kali. hehehe... Itung aja nilai kapasitas produksi
25ribu-30ribu BOEP, anda akan memperoleh hasilnya apalagi ada penyesuaian
harga jual beberapa waktu terakhir, soal bila harga turun penjualan mereka
umumnya sdh terkontrak diatas 3-10 tahun. Ini akan menjadi BUMI-BUMI
berikutnya seperti waktu dulu ketika tidak ada yg menyangkah harga BUMI
seperti saat ini termasuk saya sendiri. No body know

2007/12/19, Data Saham <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>:
>
>   kapan ya ML Upgrade ANTM ke 6.000...masak cmn dihargai 1.750, berarti
> walaupun ada Lapindo Brantas yang bikin banjir lumpur,  ENRG lebih bagus dr
> ANTM  hahaha.analisnya mesti diaudit nih
>
> *Tazmania Devil <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>* wrote:
>
>  *More trading upside, PO raised to Rp1,800*
>  Although the stock has appreciated by 84% over the past three months and
> trades at a 9% premium to our base case NAV, we still see trading upside
> on the
> stock based on EV-to-reserves comparison and bull case NAV. We reiterate
> Buy
> with a 33% higher PO of Rp1,800, or 25% upside.
> ** *Higher oil price assumption lifted EPS*
> Merrill Lynch's energy team has raised WTI oil price forecast for 2008
> from
> US$73/bbl to US$82/bbl, for 2009 and long-term from US$60 to US$70. As
> such,
> we increased 2008 EPS estimates by 14% and 2009's by 15%.
> ** *Pricing of uncontracted gas – an important swing factor*
> Between now and 2012, we estimate ENRG will produce 642 bcf of natural gas
> (gross), 159 bcf of which is un-contracted. Our NAV is highly sensitive to
> the pricing
> of this gas. We believe the industry regulator will soon issue a gas price
> formula that
> would allow aggressive price hikes – a positive for both upstream and pipe
> operators. Our NAV ranges from Rp1,321 to Rp1,696 based on sensitivity
> analysis.
> ** *Looks attractive based on EV-to-reserves comparison*
> EV-to- reserves (2P) comparison highlights ENRG as one of the value
> stocks, at
> US$9.9/boe. ENRG may offer strong inorganic growth in reserves, given
> Indonesia's focus on ramping up oil exploration and ENRG's political
> clout. In past
> transactions, ENRG purchased THP at an implied valuation of US$3.4/boe,
> and
> sold part of Kangean at as much as US$4.7/boe, by our calculation.
>
>
>  --
> Be a better friend, newshound, and know-it-all with Yahoo! Mobile. Try it
> now.
>
> 
>

Re: [obrolan-bandar] Upgrade ENRG TP 1800 ML

[Newbie]

hello, 

just want to know from you.. how about MEDC? ;>(



  - Original Message - 
  From: Andrew wijaya 
  To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com 
  Sent: Wednesday, December 19, 2007 2:26 PM
  Subject: Re: [obrolan-bandar] Upgrade ENRG TP 1800 ML


  This is the new BUMI's



  2007/12/19, Data Saham <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>: 
kapan ya ML Upgrade ANTM ke 6.000...masak cmn dihargai 1.750, berarti 
walaupun ada Lapindo Brantas yang bikin banjir lumpur,  ENRG lebih bagus dr 
ANTM  hahaha.analisnya mesti diaudit nih

Tazmania Devil <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: 

  More trading upside, PO raised to Rp1,800 
  Although the stock has appreciated by 84% over the past three months and
  trades at a 9% premium to our base case NAV, we still see trading upside 
on the
  stock based on EV-to-reserves comparison and bull case NAV. We reiterate 
Buy
  with a 33% higher PO of Rp1,800, or 25% upside.
  Higher oil price assumption lifted EPS
  Merrill Lynch's energy team has raised WTI oil price forecast for 2008 
from
  US$73/bbl to US$82/bbl, for 2009 and long-term from US$60 to US$70. As 
such,
  we increased 2008 EPS estimates by 14% and 2009's by 15%.
  Pricing of uncontracted gas – an important swing factor
  Between now and 2012, we estimate ENRG will produce 642 bcf of natural gas
  (gross), 159 bcf of which is un-contracted. Our NAV is highly sensitive 
to the pricing
  of this gas. We believe the industry regulator will soon issue a gas 
price formula that
  would allow aggressive price hikes – a positive for both upstream and pipe
  operators. Our NAV ranges from Rp1,321 to Rp1,696 based on sensitivity 
analysis.
  Looks attractive based on EV-to-reserves comparison
  EV-to- reserves (2P) comparison highlights ENRG as one of the value 
stocks, at
  US$9.9/boe. ENRG may offer strong inorganic growth in reserves, given
  Indonesia's focus on ramping up oil exploration and ENRG's political 
clout. In past
  transactions, ENRG purchased THP at an implied valuation of US$3.4/boe, 
and
  sold part of Kangean at as much as US$4.7/boe, by our calculation.





Be a better friend, newshound, and know-it-all with Yahoo! Mobile. Try it 
now. 







   

Re: [obrolan-bandar] Upgrade ENRG TP 1800 ML

[Sang Pemula]

Kadang2 analis sekuiritas itu gak netral juga, mereka ngeluarin rekomendasi 
berdasarkan pesanan dan kepentingan2 tertentu. Patut dicatat, analisis2 yg 
dikeluarkan kan berdasarkan asumsi2, asumsi2 inilah yg lantas diutak atik 
supaya menghasilkan nilai wajar tertentu yg mereka bilang target price.

Dlm hal ini saya lbh percaya analis teknikal, ga mungkin bohong, kan grafiknya 
langsung keliatan. 
Kalo fundamental ya itu tadi, asumsi nya bisa di utak atik semau2nya. Tinggal 
reasoning nya aja dibuat biar tampak masuk akal.

Contoh :
Harga rata2 minyak thn dpn, 100$, bisa masuk akal, alasannya trend harga minyak 
msh naik, konflik di tim teng blm selesai, perubahan iklim membuat musim dingin 
yg dingin luar biasa menimbulkan tekanan pd sisi permintaan dll.
Sebaliknya, 70$, bisa jg masuk akal, alasannya, harga minyak saat ini sdh 
terlalu tinggi dan sifatnya spekulatif tdk mencerminkan keseimbangan antara 
penawaran dan permintaan. Negara2 OPEC jg siap menggenjot produksinya, Konflik 
di Irak hampir usai, apalagi ketika Bush diganti dgn presiden dr demokrat yg 
kebijakan LN nya lbh bersahabat & tdk konfrontatif.

Yg bagusnya kalo ada di milis ini, yg telaten mencatat rekomendasi2 dr analis2, 
lalu nanti ditunggu dilihat kenyataannya, setelah itu hasilnya diumumkan di 
milis ini, so kita2 tau analis mana yg sering ngaco, mana yg emang beneran 
melakukan analisa jujur.

- Original Message 
From: Data Saham <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com
Sent: Wednesday, December 19, 2007 2:20:36 PM
Subject: Re: [obrolan-bandar] Upgrade ENRG TP 1800 ML









  



kapan ya ML Upgrade ANTM ke 6.000...masak cmn dihargai 1..750, 
berarti walaupun ada Lapindo Brantas yang bikin banjir lumpur,  ENRG lebih 
bagus dr ANTM  hahaha.analisny a mesti diaudit nih

Tazmania Devil <[EMAIL PROTECTED] co.id> wrote:
 
More trading upside, PO raised to Rp1,800
  Although
 the stock has appreciated by 84% over the past three  months and
 trades at a 9% premium to our base case NAV, we still see trading  upside on 
the
 stock based on EV-to-reserves comparison and bull case NAV. We  reiterate Buy
 with a 33% higher PO of Rp1,800, or 25% upside.
 Higher oil price assumption lifted EPS
 Merrill Lynch’s energy team has raised WTI oil price forecast for  2008 from
 US$73/bbl to US$82/bbl, for 2009 and long-term from US$60 to  US$70. As such,
 we increased 2008 EPS estimates by 14% and 2009’s by  15%.
 Pricing of uncontracted gas – an important swing  factor
 Between now and 2012, we estimate ENRG will produce 642 bcf of  natural gas
 (gross), 159 bcf of which is un-contracted. Our NAV is highly  sensitive to 
the pricing
 of this gas. We believe the industry regulator will soon issue a  gas price 
formula that
 would allow aggressive price hikes – a positive for both upstream  and pipe
 operators. Our NAV ranges from Rp1,321 to Rp1,696 based on  sensitivity 
analysis.
 Looks attractive based on EV-to-reserves  comparison
 EV-to- reserves (2P)
 comparison highlights ENRG as one of the  value stocks, at
 US$9.9/boe. ENRG may offer strong inorganic growth in reserves,  given
 Indonesia’s focus on ramping up oil exploration and ENRG’s  political clout. 
In past
 transactions, ENRG purchased THP at an implied valuation of  US$3.4/boe, and
 sold part of Kangean at as much as US$4.7/boe, by our  calculation.

 
 

 
  









  

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Re: [obrolan-bandar] Upgrade ENRG TP 1800 ML

[Andrew wijaya]

This is the new BUMI's

2007/12/19, Data Saham <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>:
>
>   kapan ya ML Upgrade ANTM ke 6.000...masak cmn dihargai 1.750, berarti
> walaupun ada Lapindo Brantas yang bikin banjir lumpur,  ENRG lebih bagus dr
> ANTM  hahaha.analisnya mesti diaudit nih
>
> *Tazmania Devil <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>* wrote:
>
>  *More trading upside, PO raised to Rp1,800*
>  Although the stock has appreciated by 84% over the past three months and
> trades at a 9% premium to our base case NAV, we still see trading upside
> on the
> stock based on EV-to-reserves comparison and bull case NAV. We reiterate
> Buy
> with a 33% higher PO of Rp1,800, or 25% upside.
> ** *Higher oil price assumption lifted EPS*
> Merrill Lynch's energy team has raised WTI oil price forecast for 2008
> from
> US$73/bbl to US$82/bbl, for 2009 and long-term from US$60 to US$70. As
> such,
> we increased 2008 EPS estimates by 14% and 2009's by 15%.
> ** *Pricing of uncontracted gas – an important swing factor*
> Between now and 2012, we estimate ENRG will produce 642 bcf of natural gas
> (gross), 159 bcf of which is un-contracted. Our NAV is highly sensitive to
> the pricing
> of this gas. We believe the industry regulator will soon issue a gas price
> formula that
> would allow aggressive price hikes – a positive for both upstream and pipe
> operators. Our NAV ranges from Rp1,321 to Rp1,696 based on sensitivity
> analysis.
> ** *Looks attractive based on EV-to-reserves comparison*
> EV-to- reserves (2P) comparison highlights ENRG as one of the value
> stocks, at
> US$9.9/boe. ENRG may offer strong inorganic growth in reserves, given
> Indonesia's focus on ramping up oil exploration and ENRG's political
> clout. In past
> transactions, ENRG purchased THP at an implied valuation of US$3.4/boe,
> and
> sold part of Kangean at as much as US$4.7/boe, by our calculation.
>
>
>  --
> Be a better friend, newshound, and know-it-all with Yahoo! Mobile. Try it
> now.
>
> 
>

Re: [obrolan-bandar] Upgrade ENRG TP 1800 ML

[Data Saham]

kapan ya ML Upgrade ANTM ke 6.000...masak cmn dihargai 1.750, berarti walaupun 
ada Lapindo Brantas yang bikin banjir lumpur,  ENRG lebih bagus dr ANTM  
hahaha.analisnya mesti diaudit nih

Tazmania Devil <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:  
More trading upside, PO raised to Rp1,800
  Although the stock has appreciated by 84% over the past three  months and
 trades at a 9% premium to our base case NAV, we still see trading  upside on 
the
 stock based on EV-to-reserves comparison and bull case NAV. We  reiterate Buy
 with a 33% higher PO of Rp1,800, or 25% upside.
 Higher oil price assumption lifted EPS
 Merrill Lynch’s energy team has raised WTI oil price forecast for  2008 from
 US$73/bbl to US$82/bbl, for 2009 and long-term from US$60 to  US$70. As such,
 we increased 2008 EPS estimates by 14% and 2009’s by  15%.
 Pricing of uncontracted gas – an important swing  factor
 Between now and 2012, we estimate ENRG will produce 642 bcf of  natural gas
 (gross), 159 bcf of which is un-contracted. Our NAV is highly  sensitive to 
the pricing
 of this gas. We believe the industry regulator will soon issue a  gas price 
formula that
 would allow aggressive price hikes – a positive for both upstream  and pipe
 operators. Our NAV ranges from Rp1,321 to Rp1,696 based on  sensitivity 
analysis.
 Looks attractive based on EV-to-reserves  comparison
 EV-to- reserves (2P) comparison highlights ENRG as one of the  value stocks, at
 US$9.9/boe. ENRG may offer strong inorganic growth in reserves,  given
 Indonesia’s focus on ramping up oil exploration and ENRG’s  political clout. 
In past
 transactions, ENRG purchased THP at an implied valuation of  US$3.4/boe, and
 sold part of Kangean at as much as US$4.7/boe, by our  calculation.

 
 
   

   
-
Be a better friend, newshound, and know-it-all with Yahoo! Mobile.  Try it now.

[obrolan-bandar] Upgrade ENRG TP 1800 ML

[Tazmania Devil]

More trading upside, PO raised to Rp1,800

Although the stock has appreciated by 84% over the past three months and

trades at a 9% premium to our base case NAV, we still see trading upside on the

stock based on EV-to-reserves comparison and bull case NAV. We reiterate Buy

with a 33% higher PO of Rp1,800, or 25% upside.

Higher oil price assumption lifted EPS

Merrill Lynch's energy team has raised WTI oil price forecast for 2008 from

US$73/bbl to US$82/bbl, for 2009 and long-term from US$60 to US$70. As such,

we increased 2008 EPS estimates by 14% and 2009's by 15%.

Pricing of uncontracted gas - an important swing factor

Between now and 2012, we estimate ENRG will produce 642 bcf of natural gas

(gross), 159 bcf of which is un-contracted. Our NAV is highly sensitive to the 
pricing

of this gas. We believe the industry regulator will soon issue a gas price 
formula that

would allow aggressive price hikes - a positive for both upstream and pipe

operators. Our NAV ranges from Rp1,321 to Rp1,696 based on sensitivity analysis.

Looks attractive based on EV-to-reserves comparison

EV-to- reserves (2P) comparison highlights ENRG as one of the value stocks, at

US$9.9/boe. ENRG may offer strong inorganic growth in reserves, given

Indonesia's focus on ramping up oil exploration and ENRG's political clout. In 
past

transactions, ENRG purchased THP at an implied valuation of US$3.4/boe, and

sold part of Kangean at as much as US$4.7/boe, by our calculation.