BANKING REVIEW .... (P.Cendra) Re: [obrolan-bandar] Re: Us bank yang akan survive
P. Cendra, Welcome di "Waoeng" OB... Your sharp analysis will enlighment our knowledge for investing, especially for NuBie. Mohon reviewnya untuk Banking di BEI (my preference is BBCA and BBRI), apakah harga saat ini sdh pas untuk invest ?, atau nunggu aja setelah 1Q09 yg digadang2 oleh bear messanger BEI will touch <1000 ?. Sering2 nongkrong di Waroengnya Mbah yg penuh warna-warni ini ... GBU From: cendrawira To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com Sent: Sunday, March 8, 2009 11:55:59 PM Subject: [obrolan-bandar] Re: Us bank yang akan survive Hello mate You asked some good questions there. To give you an awareness of how this crisis started is because of over-leverage. From fleas, dogs, people to companies in US are borrowing multiple times of their equities as collateral. That is why overtime, companies are able to expand rapidly and generate massive profits and with people/society having too much money be able to push up share prices to epic ridiculous valuation. Thus everything is wayyy overvalued in 2007-2008. Even now at the current S&P level, company is just reasonably valued with sense with about 12-15x PER. Would you buy something that will give you break even in over 10 years? I personally would not do so. Imagine yourself buying business or investment that give you back your total return in 12-15 years? Bah. Correct. Stocks historically during the great depression is valued at 2-3x PER. Surprise? But of course the condition in 1928 is different from now. The world has advanced much in many terms(population, economically, standard of living, technology). People are much smarter now than last time and information from internet has dramatically shrank the world which give people edge in making timely decision or taking advantage. I do not make money by making a bet on the direction of the economy or hoping a screwed up company to overturn(This is extremely hard), but I love something that is really good, the best in it's industry, no problem with it's balance sheet, for discount sale in 20 years !! Investment Bank in US is practically dead for now, I do not dare to touch an investment bank especially with derivatives because it is a giant ponzi scheme, nobody will be there especially in this economic climate is able to absorb the writedown/losses. I shudder at the thought of banks with derivatives product, it is what cause US financial system meltdown and AIG, Citigroup, Lehman brothers to go BUST. Retail, Commercial Banking will be the face of new US financial system. My money is on Wells Fargo. Some people like BK (Bank of New York Mellon) and USB (Us Bancorp), but I always like the cream of the good, pick the best horse and run to the finish with it. Good luck ! Fandy Cendrawira --- On Sun, 3/8/09, anthonykalisaran@ telstra.ap. blackberry. net wrote: From: anthonykalisaran@ telstra.ap. blackberry. net Subject: Us bank yang akan survive To: cendraw...@yahoo. com Date: Sunday, March 8, 2009, 5:46 PM Dear cendrawira Saya baru saja membaca tulisan anda mengenai perbankan (terutama citigroup) cukup bagus dan logis , tapi bukankah harga di pasar saham us sudah cukup efisien sehingga seharusnya harga skrg udah mencerminkan valuenya yg skarang? Cmiiw. Lalu mengenai bank yang akan survive dan bisa memberikan return yg besar yg seperti anda tulis tsb , apakah bank tsb memang mempunyai potensi begitu bagusnya dan portfolio yang lebih baik dari para peers nya? . Kalo boleh share bank 2 yang berpotensi seperti itu bank apa pak? Apakah investment bank( potensi leverage besar Sehingga bisa growth dengan luar biasa) ato bank2 konvensional yang mengandalkan business retail dan commercial , karena saya masih agak awam pak di bidang investasi , jadi mohon bantuannya. Trima kasih banyak pak Salam hangat Anthony Sent via BlackBerry® from Telstra Network
Re: [obrolan-bandar] Re: Us bank yang akan survive
Bank Cukai Asia, eh Bank Central Asia, European Central Bank. Sejajar. WARNING: Cumi-cumi mengandung 1,170mg kolesterol per 10 gr, sedangkan daging ayam tanpa kulit hanya 50mg saja. On Mon, Mar 9, 2009 at 7:25 AM, Boys n Girls wrote: > Buffet kan di US > kalau saya sih lebih suka BBCA... (ini bukan bank.. tapi Kasir :D) > > mungkin satu-satunya bank di dunia yang pendapatan utama dari memungut > "komisi" dari uang yang numpang lewat > > ha.ha.. > > > > On Sun, Mar 8, 2009 at 11:55 PM, cendrawira wrote: > >> Hello mate >> >> You asked some good questions there. To give you an awareness of how this >> crisis started is because of over-leverage. From fleas, dogs, people to >> companies in US are borrowing multiple times of their equities as >> collateral. That is why overtime, companies are able to expand rapidly and >> generate massive profits and with people/society having too much money be >> able to push up share prices to epic ridiculous valuation. Thus everything >> is wayyy overvalued in 2007-2008. Even now at the current S&P level, company >> is just reasonably valued with sense with about 12-15x PER. Would you buy >> something that will give you break even in over 10 years? I personally would >> not do so. Imagine yourself buying business or investment that give you back >> your total return in 12-15 years? Bah. Correct. Stocks historically during >> the great depression is valued at 2-3x PER. Surprise? But of course the >> condition in 1928 is different from now. The world has advanced much in many >> terms(population, economically, standard of living, technology). People are >> much smarter now than last time and information from internet has >> dramatically shrank the world which give people edge in making timely >> decision or taking advantage. I do not make money by making a bet on the >> direction of the economy or hoping a screwed up company to overturn(This is >> extremely hard), but I love something that is really good, the best in it's >> industry, no problem with it's balance sheet, for discount sale in 20 years >> !! >> >> Investment Bank in US is practically dead for now, I do not dare to touch >> an investment bank especially with derivatives because it is a giant ponzi >> scheme, nobody will be there especially in this economic climate is able to >> absorb the writedown/losses. I shudder at the thought of banks with >> derivatives product, it is what cause US financial system meltdown and AIG, >> Citigroup, Lehman brothers to go BUST. Retail, Commercial Banking will be >> the face of new US financial system. My money is on Wells Fargo. Some people >> like BK (Bank of New York Mellon) and USB (Us Bancorp), but I always like >> the cream of the good, pick the best horse and run to the finish with it. >> >> Good luck ! >> Fandy Cendrawira >> >> --- On Sun, 3/8/09, >> anthonykalisa...@telstra.ap.blackberry.net< >> anthonykalisa...@telstra.ap.blackberry.net> >> wrote: >> >> From: >> anthonykalisa...@telstra.ap.blackberry.net< >> anthonykalisa...@telstra.ap.blackberry.net >> > >> Subject: Us bank yang akan survive >> To: cendraw...@yahoo.com >> Date: Sunday, March 8, 2009, 5:46 PM >> >> Dear cendrawira >> >> Saya baru saja membaca tulisan anda mengenai perbankan (terutama >> citigroup) >> cukup bagus dan logis , tapi bukankah harga di pasar saham us sudah cukup >> efisien sehingga seharusnya harga skrg udah mencerminkan valuenya yg >> skarang? >> Cmiiw. Lalu mengenai bank yang akan survive dan bisa memberikan return yg >> besar >> yg seperti anda tulis tsb , apakah bank tsb memang mempunyai potensi >> begitu >> bagusnya dan portfolio yang lebih baik dari para peers nya? . >> >> Kalo boleh share bank 2 yang berpotensi seperti itu bank apa pak? Apakah >> investment bank( potensi leverage besar >> Sehingga bisa growth dengan luar biasa) ato bank2 konvensional yang >> mengandalkan business retail dan commercial , karena saya masih agak awam >> pak di >> bidang investasi , jadi mohon bantuannya. >> >> Trima kasih banyak pak >> >> Salam hangat >> Anthony >> Sent via BlackBerry® from Telstra Network >> >> > > > >
Re: [obrolan-bandar] Re: Us bank yang akan survive
Buffet kan di US kalau saya sih lebih suka BBCA... (ini bukan bank.. tapi Kasir :D) mungkin satu-satunya bank di dunia yang pendapatan utama dari memungut "komisi" dari uang yang numpang lewat ha.ha.. On Sun, Mar 8, 2009 at 11:55 PM, cendrawira wrote: > Hello mate > > You asked some good questions there. To give you an awareness of how this > crisis started is because of over-leverage. From fleas, dogs, people to > companies in US are borrowing multiple times of their equities as > collateral. That is why overtime, companies are able to expand rapidly and > generate massive profits and with people/society having too much money be > able to push up share prices to epic ridiculous valuation. Thus everything > is wayyy overvalued in 2007-2008. Even now at the current S&P level, company > is just reasonably valued with sense with about 12-15x PER. Would you buy > something that will give you break even in over 10 years? I personally would > not do so. Imagine yourself buying business or investment that give you back > your total return in 12-15 years? Bah. Correct. Stocks historically during > the great depression is valued at 2-3x PER. Surprise? But of course the > condition in 1928 is different from now. The world has advanced much in many > terms(population, economically, standard of living, technology). People are > much smarter now than last time and information from internet has > dramatically shrank the world which give people edge in making timely > decision or taking advantage. I do not make money by making a bet on the > direction of the economy or hoping a screwed up company to overturn(This is > extremely hard), but I love something that is really good, the best in it's > industry, no problem with it's balance sheet, for discount sale in 20 years > !! > > Investment Bank in US is practically dead for now, I do not dare to touch > an investment bank especially with derivatives because it is a giant ponzi > scheme, nobody will be there especially in this economic climate is able to > absorb the writedown/losses. I shudder at the thought of banks with > derivatives product, it is what cause US financial system meltdown and AIG, > Citigroup, Lehman brothers to go BUST. Retail, Commercial Banking will be > the face of new US financial system. My money is on Wells Fargo. Some people > like BK (Bank of New York Mellon) and USB (Us Bancorp), but I always like > the cream of the good, pick the best horse and run to the finish with it. > > Good luck ! > Fandy Cendrawira > > --- On Sun, 3/8/09, > anthonykalisa...@telstra.ap.blackberry.net< > anthonykalisa...@telstra.ap.blackberry.net> > wrote: > > From: > anthonykalisa...@telstra.ap.blackberry.net< > anthonykalisa...@telstra.ap.blackberry.net > > > Subject: Us bank yang akan survive > To: cendraw...@yahoo.com > Date: Sunday, March 8, 2009, 5:46 PM > > Dear cendrawira > > Saya baru saja membaca tulisan anda mengenai perbankan (terutama citigroup) > cukup bagus dan logis , tapi bukankah harga di pasar saham us sudah cukup > efisien sehingga seharusnya harga skrg udah mencerminkan valuenya yg > skarang? > Cmiiw. Lalu mengenai bank yang akan survive dan bisa memberikan return yg > besar > yg seperti anda tulis tsb , apakah bank tsb memang mempunyai potensi begitu > bagusnya dan portfolio yang lebih baik dari para peers nya? . > > Kalo boleh share bank 2 yang berpotensi seperti itu bank apa pak? Apakah > investment bank( potensi leverage besar > Sehingga bisa growth dengan luar biasa) ato bank2 konvensional yang > mengandalkan business retail dan commercial , karena saya masih agak awam > pak di > bidang investasi , jadi mohon bantuannya. > > Trima kasih banyak pak > > Salam hangat > Anthony > Sent via BlackBerry® from Telstra Network > > >