Buffet kan di US kalau saya sih lebih suka BBCA... (ini bukan bank.. tapi Kasir :D)
mungkin satu-satunya bank di dunia yang pendapatan utama dari memungut "komisi" dari uang yang numpang lewat ha.ha.. On Sun, Mar 8, 2009 at 11:55 PM, cendrawira <cendraw...@yahoo.com> wrote: > Hello mate > > You asked some good questions there. To give you an awareness of how this > crisis started is because of over-leverage. From fleas, dogs, people to > companies in US are borrowing multiple times of their equities as > collateral. That is why overtime, companies are able to expand rapidly and > generate massive profits and with people/society having too much money be > able to push up share prices to epic ridiculous valuation. Thus everything > is wayyy overvalued in 2007-2008. Even now at the current S&P level, company > is just reasonably valued with sense with about 12-15x PER. Would you buy > something that will give you break even in over 10 years? I personally would > not do so. Imagine yourself buying business or investment that give you back > your total return in 12-15 years? Bah. Correct. Stocks historically during > the great depression is valued at 2-3x PER. Surprise? But of course the > condition in 1928 is different from now. The world has advanced much in many > terms(population, economically, standard of living, technology). People are > much smarter now than last time and information from internet has > dramatically shrank the world which give people edge in making timely > decision or taking advantage. I do not make money by making a bet on the > direction of the economy or hoping a screwed up company to overturn(This is > extremely hard), but I love something that is really good, the best in it's > industry, no problem with it's balance sheet, for discount sale in 20 years > !! > > Investment Bank in US is practically dead for now, I do not dare to touch > an investment bank especially with derivatives because it is a giant ponzi > scheme, nobody will be there especially in this economic climate is able to > absorb the writedown/losses. I shudder at the thought of banks with > derivatives product, it is what cause US financial system meltdown and AIG, > Citigroup, Lehman brothers to go BUST. Retail, Commercial Banking will be > the face of new US financial system. My money is on Wells Fargo. Some people > like BK (Bank of New York Mellon) and USB (Us Bancorp), but I always like > the cream of the good, pick the best horse and run to the finish with it. > > Good luck ! > Fandy Cendrawira > > --- On Sun, 3/8/09, > anthonykalisa...@telstra.ap.blackberry.net<anthonykalisaran%40telstra.ap.blackberry.net>< > anthonykalisa...@telstra.ap.blackberry.net<anthonykalisaran%40telstra.ap.blackberry.net>> > wrote: > > From: > anthonykalisa...@telstra.ap.blackberry.net<anthonykalisaran%40telstra.ap.blackberry.net>< > anthonykalisa...@telstra.ap.blackberry.net<anthonykalisaran%40telstra.ap.blackberry.net> > > > Subject: Us bank yang akan survive > To: cendraw...@yahoo.com <cendrawira%40yahoo.com> > Date: Sunday, March 8, 2009, 5:46 PM > > Dear cendrawira > > Saya baru saja membaca tulisan anda mengenai perbankan (terutama citigroup) > cukup bagus dan logis , tapi bukankah harga di pasar saham us sudah cukup > efisien sehingga seharusnya harga skrg udah mencerminkan valuenya yg > skarang? > Cmiiw. Lalu mengenai bank yang akan survive dan bisa memberikan return yg > besar > yg seperti anda tulis tsb , apakah bank tsb memang mempunyai potensi begitu > bagusnya dan portfolio yang lebih baik dari para peers nya? . > > Kalo boleh share bank 2 yang berpotensi seperti itu bank apa pak? Apakah > investment bank( potensi leverage besar > Sehingga bisa growth dengan luar biasa) ato bank2 konvensional yang > mengandalkan business retail dan commercial , karena saya masih agak awam > pak di > bidang investasi , jadi mohon bantuannya. > > Trima kasih banyak pak > > Salam hangat > Anthony > Sent via BlackBerry® from Telstra Network > > >
