Re: OT: Interesting take on the big crunch

2008-09-28 Thread Bob Sullivan
Give us a couple of weeks without the bailout and you're credit cards
won't work and neither will the ATM machines.  Have you got any
chickens to trade?
I understand those who have already lost their homes to forclosure may
see no releaf.  My understanding is that the majority of the problems
are due to bad loans in California and Florida.  And a good case can
be made that these were people just plain foolish, overspending on
their housing.  I don't care about bailing them out, just not having a
2nd Great Depression.
Regards,  Bob S.

On Fri, Sep 26, 2008 at 10:56 PM, Subash [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:
 On Fri, 26 Sep 2008 18:30:55 -0400
 John Sessoms [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:

 Ok, I was wondering how I got that link. The man has some very
 interesting ideas ... but what I took away from his essay about the
 4th quadrant is the proposed wall street bailout ain't gonna' work.

 don't know to what extent this actually reflects the realities on the
 ground, but if this Guardian article by Andrew Clark is true, the
 'bailout' plan seems aimed at those responsible for the crisis. btw,
 this article was carried in the newspapers here today

 http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2008/sep/26/useconomy.usa

 quote
 Those on the ground doubt that the Bush administration's banking
 bailout will chime agreeably with struggling families. Drew Sygit, a
 property consultant at The Lending Edge in Detroit, said: I don't know
 if anyone in the Detroit area cares, or can see that this package is
 supposed to be in their best interests. For many people, it's a case
 of, 'Hey, I lost my house and some of the people who put us in this
 situation are being bailed out', he said.
 /quote

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Re: OT: Interesting take on the big crunch

2008-09-26 Thread John Sessoms

From: Subash [EMAIL PROTECTED]

On Thu, 25 Sep 2008 13:12:04 -0500 Bob Sullivan [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:

 Subash,
 Thanks, that's an excellent and timely article for those with a math
 or financial background.  It puts the current woes of the financial
 system into perspective.  Give me redundant and non-optimized systems!
 I also liked the author's bio in the Times.
 http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/economics/article4022091.ece
 I've got to get the Black Swans book.
 Regards,  Bob S.  (reformed mathematician)


thanks Bob for that link. not having a math or financial background,
that was a much more, errr, edible edition of the man and his theories
though i did get most of his edge essay...  :-) 


Ok, I was wondering how I got that link. The man has some very 
interesting ideas ... but what I took away from his essay about the 4th 
quadrant is the proposed wall street bailout ain't gonna' work.


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Re: OT: Interesting take on the big crunch

2008-09-26 Thread Subash
On Fri, 26 Sep 2008 18:30:55 -0400
John Sessoms [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:

 Ok, I was wondering how I got that link. The man has some very 
 interesting ideas ... but what I took away from his essay about the
 4th quadrant is the proposed wall street bailout ain't gonna' work.

don't know to what extent this actually reflects the realities on the
ground, but if this Guardian article by Andrew Clark is true, the
'bailout' plan seems aimed at those responsible for the crisis. btw,
this article was carried in the newspapers here today

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2008/sep/26/useconomy.usa

quote
Those on the ground doubt that the Bush administration's banking
bailout will chime agreeably with struggling families. Drew Sygit, a
property consultant at The Lending Edge in Detroit, said: I don't know
if anyone in the Detroit area cares, or can see that this package is
supposed to be in their best interests. For many people, it's a case
of, 'Hey, I lost my house and some of the people who put us in this
situation are being bailed out', he said.
/quote

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OT: Interesting take on the big crunch

2008-09-25 Thread Subash
for those times, when it is raining outside (or its equivalent) and you
have absolutely nothing else to do 

a bit long... but i personally enjoyed reading it, though i am not a
'financial' guy

http://www.edge.org/3rd_culture/taleb08/taleb08_index.html

When Nassim Taleb talks about the limits of statistics, he becomes
outraged. My outrage, he says, is aimed at the scientist-charlatan
putting society at risk using statistical methods. This is similar to
iatrogenics, the study of the doctor putting the patient at risk. As a
researcher in probability, he has some credibility. In 2006, using FNMA
and bank risk managers as his prime perpetrators, he wrote the
following:

The government-sponsored institution Fannie Mae, when I look at its
risks, seems to be sitting on a barrel of dynamite, vulnerable to
the slightest hiccup. But not to worry: their large staff of
scientists deemed these events unlikely.


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Re: OT: Interesting take on the big crunch

2008-09-25 Thread Bob Sullivan
Subash,
Thanks, that's an excellent and timely article for those with a math
or financial background.  It puts the current woes of the financial
system into perspective.  Give me redundant and non-optimized systems!
I also liked the author's bio in the Times.
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/economics/article4022091.ece
I've got to get the Black Swans book.
Regards,  Bob S.  (reformed mathematician)

On Thu, Sep 25, 2008 at 10:03 AM, Subash [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:
 for those times, when it is raining outside (or its equivalent) and you
 have absolutely nothing else to do

 a bit long... but i personally enjoyed reading it, though i am not a
 'financial' guy

 http://www.edge.org/3rd_culture/taleb08/taleb08_index.html

 When Nassim Taleb talks about the limits of statistics, he becomes
 outraged. My outrage, he says, is aimed at the scientist-charlatan
 putting society at risk using statistical methods. This is similar to
 iatrogenics, the study of the doctor putting the patient at risk. As a
 researcher in probability, he has some credibility. In 2006, using FNMA
 and bank risk managers as his prime perpetrators, he wrote the
 following:

The government-sponsored institution Fannie Mae, when I look at its
risks, seems to be sitting on a barrel of dynamite, vulnerable to
the slightest hiccup. But not to worry: their large staff of
scientists deemed these events unlikely.


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Re: OT: Interesting take on the big crunch

2008-09-25 Thread Subash
On Thu, 25 Sep 2008 13:12:04 -0500
Bob Sullivan [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:

 Subash,
 Thanks, that's an excellent and timely article for those with a math
 or financial background.  It puts the current woes of the financial
 system into perspective.  Give me redundant and non-optimized systems!
 I also liked the author's bio in the Times.
 http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/economics/article4022091.ece
 I've got to get the Black Swans book.
 Regards,  Bob S.  (reformed mathematician)

thanks Bob for that link. not having a math or financial background,
that was a much more, errr, edible edition of the man and his theories
though i did get most of his edge essay... :-)

regards, subash

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