[PEN-L:10329] RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: Abortion stops Crime- from thehorse's mouth

1999-08-24 Thread Fellows, Jeffrey

I think you completely missed my point. 

 -Original Message-
 From: Nathan Newman [SMTP:[EMAIL PROTECTED]]
 Sent: Monday, August 23, 1999 6:09 PM
 To:   [EMAIL PROTECTED]
 Subject:  [PEN-L:10322] RE: RE: RE: RE: Abortion stops Crime- from the
 horse's mouth
 
 
 
  -Original Message-
  From: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
  
  []  Child abuse is related to low socio-economic status. The
  point that I made was not that this wasn't the case, but that the
 elevated
  risks are not up to the task in terms of explaining a sizable
  portion of the criminal statistics. Other confounders, like alcohol,
 weapon availability,
  current (not past) socioeconomic status indicators such as income,
  occupation, and education, and a variety of situational variables that
  involve the victim, dilute the potential effect of unwantedness.
 
 Well, that is your empirical claim.  What this study seems to claim is
 that
 your empirical claim is wrong, and that unwantedness and associated abuse
 -
 rather than economic status or other variables - is far more important to
 creating criminal acts later in life.
 
 What I find interesting is that in the more limited claims of the authors,
 this study is much more interesting as support for the arguments of those
 activists who highlight the dangers of child abuse.  Rather than being a
 study supporting eugenics - since race and economic status are seemingly
 small factors in crime statistic variation - it is a study supporting some
 of the more (for-lack-of-a-better-word) New Age feminist arguments
 stressing
 love for the child as of key importance over the more materialist causes
 stressed by the traditional workerist Left.
 
 Since I place myself generally in the later category, I do find the
 results
 of the study provocative.
 
 All the doubts on statistics collection and regression still hold of
 course,
 but that is no different from every economic and social study published -
 whether we like them or not.
 
 --Nathan Newman
 






[PEN-L:10320] RE: RE: RE: Abortion stops Crime- from the horse'smouth

1999-08-23 Thread Fellows, Jeffrey


[]  Nathan wrote: 
 Now, the big theoretical point is whether unwanted children (from any
 social class) are treated worse by their parents and are thus more likely
 to be
 involved in crime.  I don't know the literature on this one well, but a
 lot
 of folks who fight child abuse have argued precisely this, and again, this
 does seem like a more reasonable limited claim.
 
[]  Child abuse is related to low socio-economic status. The
point that I made was not that this wasn't the case, but that the elevated
risks are not up to the task in terms of explaining a sizable portion of the
criminal statistics. Other confounders, like alcohol, weapon availability,
current (not past) socioeconomic status indicators such as income,
occupation, and education, and a variety of situational variables that
involve the victim, dilute the potential effect of unwantedness. There is
also a problem with the definition of child abuse, which typically includes
child neglect. Most poor parents cannot avoid the latter, since it is
defined largely in terms available resources or living conditions.

Another important issue is that (indexed, interpersonal
non-economic) criminal acts are relatively rare. That's why statistical
analyses using the national crime statistics (like the national crime
victimization survey) will typically depend on several years' data to
conduct statistical analyses.

When we get down to the nitty-gritty in terms of counting and
analyzing the numbers of reported criminal acts, there aren't a lot of data
points to begin with. When crimes are examined by perpetrator
characteristics, particularly one so narrow in scope, the ability to draw
conclusions simply evaporates. 

In my opinion, instead of studying a very narrow and minor question
because a dataset presented itself, or because of a desire to show that some
social policy has unintended benefits (a policy that I agree with, by the
way), it would have been nice if the authors had done some prior assessment
of the real impact such knowledge would have. In actuality, their results
really do nothing to improve social conditions. Instead, it seems to give
more weight to the arguments of the Social Darwinists.

Jeff






[PEN-L:10314] RE: Abortion stops Crime- from the horse's mouth

1999-08-23 Thread Fellows, Jeffrey

I guess the major run up in crime rates that occurred in the mid-1960s must
have been caused by the outlawing of legalized abortion in the 1940s! In the
medical literature there is a notion of biologic plausibility that must be
satisfied. How does the study connect criminal acts and perpetrators, and
lack thereof, with the mothers' condition prior to birth? 

Overall, I find the authors' rationale to be of little practical importance.
There are so many leaps that this study relies on. For instance, this study
assumes poor women have children at substantially higher rates and numbers
than middle class women, that poor women were the principal beneficiaries of
the legal change, that people do not move in and out of poverty, that single
poor women are significantly less able than married women or single fathers
at raising their children, that the number of abortions in a year is high
enough to produce such an effect, and that having an unplanned child is
related to greater risks of child abuse and in sufficient numbers to effect
crime statistics. The literature connecting childhood poverty and
maltreatment to adult crime has many gaps. 

In addition, a recent study (which I can't remember the name of the author)
indicated that the most common group who get abortions are middle-class
married women who have experienced some sort of contraception failure.
Obviously, this is current experience, but the implication is that by the
time you figure out just how many future criminals we are talking about the
more this study sounds like a sun spot theory.

There has to be a better way to advocate for strengthening abortion rights.
Studies like this make advocates and the researchers supporting them look
like fools.  

Jeff
 -Original Message-
 From: Nathan Newman [SMTP:[EMAIL PROTECTED]]
 Sent: Monday, August 23, 1999 3:14 PM
 To:   Lbo-Talk; pen-l
 Subject:  [PEN-L:10313] Abortion stops Crime- from the horse's mouth
 
 
 This week Slate's has a dialogue on the abortion-crime connection
 including
 one of the authors of the study.  The dialogue starts at
 http://www.slate.com/dialogues/99-08-23/dialogues.asp
 
 Here is the author's summary of his own research.
 
 Does Abortion Prevent Crime?
 
 
 
 
   From: Steven Levitt
 To: Steve Sailer
 Posted: Monday, August 23, 1999, at 9:32 a.m. PT
 Sign Up for E-mail Auto-Delivery
 
  In recent weeks there has been a lot of media coverage of a paper
 John Donohue and I recently wrote connecting the legalization of abortion
 in
 the 1970s to reduced crime in the 1990s. The purpose of the study is to
 better understand the reasons for the sharp decline in crime during this
 decade, which, prior to our research, had largely eluded explanation.
 While
 there are many other theories as to why crime declined (more prisoners,
 better policing, the strong economy, the decline of crack, etc.), most
 experts agree that none of these very convincingly explains the 30 percent
 to 40 percent fall in crime since 1991.
The theoretical justification for our argument rests on two simple
 assumptions: 1) Legalized abortion leads to fewer "unwanted" babies being
 born, and 2) unwanted babies are more likely to suffer abuse and neglect
 and
 are therefore at an increased risk for criminal involvement later in life.
 The first assumption, that abortion reduces the number of unwanted
 children,
 is true virtually by definition. The second assumption, that unwanted
 children are at increased risk for criminal involvement, is supported by
 three decades of academic research. If one accepts these two assumptions,
 then a direct mechanism by which the legalization of abortion can reduce
 crime has been established. At that point, the question merely becomes: Is
 the magnitude of the impact large or small?
Our preliminary research suggests that the effect of abortion
 legalization is large. According to our estimates, as much as one-half of
 the remarkable decline in crime in the 1990s may be attributable to the
 legalization of abortion. We base our conclusions on four separate data
 analyses.
First, we demonstrate that crime rates began to fall 18 years after
 the landmark Supreme Court decision Roe vs. Wade legalized abortion across
 the nation, just the point at which babies born under legalized abortion
 would be reaching the peak adolescent crime years. In my opinion, this is
 the weakest of our four data analyses. In a simple time series, many
 factors
 are negatively correlated with crime. Furthermore, the world is a
 complicated place and it would be simplistic to believe that legalized
 abortion could overpower all other social determinants of crime.
Second, we show that the five states that legalized abortion in
 1970--three years before Roe vs. Wade--saw crime begin to decrease roughly
 three years earlier than the rest of the nation. This is a bit more
 convincing to me but still far from conclusive.
Third, we demonstrate that 

[PEN-L:9631] RE: Information about the American Economic Group

1999-07-26 Thread Fellows, Jeffrey

Has anyone ever heard of the American Economic Group? Apparently, they
conduct tobacco-friendly research for the Tobacco Institute, and recently
may have published a report suggesting that the tobacco industry generated
$54.3 billion in wages and other compensation in 1994.

I would greatly appreciate any information you may have on this group. 


Jeffrey L. Fellows, Ph.D.
Office on Smoking and Health
National Center for Chronic Disease Prevention 
  and Health Promotion
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
4770 Buford Highway, N.E.  (MS-K50)
Atlanta, GA  30341-3724
Tel:   (770) 488-5066
Fax:  (770) 488-5848
E-mail:  [EMAIL PROTECTED]






[PEN-L:8902] RE: OECD data

1999-07-06 Thread Fellows, Jeffrey

I would also like to hear others' opinions on this data source. Jeff

 -Original Message-
 Sent: Friday, July 02, 1999 11:13 PM
 To:   [EMAIL PROTECTED]
 Subject:  [PEN-L:8814] OECD data
 
 Apologies to those who are not interested, but I am about to compare
 industry structure in OECD countries using the OECD's Structural Analysis
 Database (STAN), which takes national data and adjusts it for greater
 consistency. If there are any opinions on the methods, accuracy, etc. of
 this source I would greatly appreciate it if you would send them to me
 directly.
 
 Bill Burgess
 






[PEN-L:8599] re: interpersonal utility comparisons (was Thomas Friedman an economist?)

1999-06-30 Thread Fellows, Jeffrey

Doesn't the process of comparing differences in ordinal rankings bring
cardinal rankings back into the function, thereby violating the
noncardinality condition? 

 -Original Message-
 From: [EMAIL PROTECTED] [SMTP:[EMAIL PROTECTED]]
 Sent: Wednesday, June 30, 1999 10:34 AM
 To:   [EMAIL PROTECTED]
 Subject:  [PEN-L:8596] re: Thomas Friedman an economist?
 
 Ken Hanly wrote:
 
 COMMENT: But this confirms my point doesn't it? Isn't it a core
 assumption of neoclassical economists that it is impossible to make
 interpersonal comparisons of utility? Am I wrong in thinking that? Isn't
 it standard that among most that only cardinal rankings of utility by
 individuals is possible?
 
 Correction: only ordinal rankings are admissible. 
 
 The injunction against interpersonal comparisons of utility became SOP in
 the 1930s after Lionel Robbins brought Frederich Hayek to the LSE. Tibor
 Scitovsky's (1950?) essay on the 'old' welfare economics versus the 'new'
 welfare economics raises the appropriate objections about this "no
 interpersonal comparisons" line. 
 
 While it may be impossible to make interpersonal comparisons, it's
 impossible NOT to make them (since interpersonal comparisons are embedded
 within every individual's utility function). So just maybe it would be
 better to make them modestly while acknowledging their impossibility
 rather
 than to LOUDLY PRETEND to not make them and then covertly introduce them
 behind one's own back. 
 
 "Pareto optimality" is obfuscatory hogwash. The the big covert
 interpersonal
 comparison of utility of the post 1930s welfare economics was introduced
 by
 Enrico Barone in 1908 and carried forward without objection or
 qualification
 by Abram Bergson in 1938. The spell cast by the Pareto-Barone-von
 Mises-Hayek-Robbins-Bergson mystification is marvelously convoluted.
 
 What it comes down to is a pseudo-mathematical proof that to optimize
 social
 welfare a collectivist state would have to perfectly simulate the workings
 of the free competitive market. The covert interpersonal comparison is
 introduced in a false identity equating output with welfare. 
 
 In plain words, here's the interpersonal comparison: more stuff = better
 living ("as if the power of compelling or inducing men to labour twice as
 much at the mills of Gaza for the enjoyment of the Philistines, were proof
 of any thing but a tyranny or an ignorance twice as powerful.") It's as
 simple as that. Read the Barone.
 
 What's doubly shameful is how "Marxism" bought into this incredible
 regression. Oskar Lange thought the argument was just dandy and proposed
 placing a marble statue of von Mises in the hall of the socialist ministry
 of production. I guess marble statues were in vogue in the 1930s.
 
 The difference between shit and shinola: if you assume that maximum output
 equals maximum welfare, you're making an interpersonal comparison of
 utility
 between those who have a preference for consumption goods and those who
 have
 a preference for disposable time. The "no interpersonal comparison" crowd
 relies on that assumption.
 regards,
 
 Tom Walker
 http://www.vcn.bc.ca/timework/worksite.htm
 






[PEN-L:8009] RE: Good critiques of MAI, Tobin tax/alternatives

1999-06-16 Thread Fellows, Jeffrey

I am examing provisions of the proposed Multilateral Agreement on Investment
(MAI) for their potential impact on the ability of governments to conduct
tobacco control activities. I have been away from the Intl trade and finance
arena for about three years, and would like to get any input from the list
on good critical assessments of MAI (and trade-investment agreements like
NAFTA), the Tobin tax, and any alternatives to the Tobin tax. Any
suggestions? 

Jeff






[PEN-L:7049] RE: Re: Re: punitive damages

1999-05-19 Thread Fellows, Jeffrey

Peter, I would like the list of references you mention. Jeff

 -Original Message-
 Sent: Wednesday, May 19, 1999 4:28 PM
 To:   [EMAIL PROTECTED]
 Subject:  [PEN-L:7047] Re: Re: punitive damages
 
 The mainstream position (which goes back several decades) is that, for
 economic efficiency, the punitive multiple should be inverse to the
 probability that the tort will be relieved.  So if there is a one in
 three chance that polluters get caught, damages assessed should be
 multiplied by three.  Very standard Pigovian stuff.
 
 The deeper question is whether the cost internalization paradigm is
 adequate.  I've got a bunch of articles saying it's not, at least in the
 context of occ safety and health.  I'll be happy to share with anyone
 interested.
 
 Peter
 
 Jim Devine wrote:
  
  I'm not going to side with the following, but I think that some reform
 of
  the tort system is in order. It seems that there are frivolous lawsuits
  launched in order not just to get compensatory damages but also to win
 big
  punitive damages. I see nothing wrong with compensatory damages (if the
  plaintiff is right about liability) but it makes sense to me that the
  plaintiff shouldn't get the punitive damages. Instead, they should be
 put
  in some general government fund to finance needed stuff like day-care
  centers. Under this system, (1) the defendant would be punished, (2) the
  plaintiff would be compensated for damage done to him or her, (3) there
  would be less arbitrariness and unpredictability of punitive damage
 awards
  because fewer plaintiffs and attorneys would "go for the gold,"  and (4)
  the punitive damages might pay for something useful.
  
  Vicusi argues: Legal scholars and judges have long expressed concerns
 over
  the
   unpredictability and arbitrariness of punitive damages awards.
   Proposed remedies, such as restricting punitive damages to
   narrowly defined circumstances, have not yet met with success.
   This paper addresses the threshold issue of whether, on balance,
   punitive damages have benefits in excess of their costs. There
   is no evidence of a significant deterrent effect based on an
   original empirical analysis of a wide range of risk measures for
   the states with and without punitive damages. These measures
   included accident rates, chemical spills, medical malpractice
   injuries, insurance performance, and other outcomes that should
   be affected by punitive damages, but which are not. Punitive
   damages can and do cause substantial economic harm through their
   random infliction of economic penalties.
  
  I am not a lawyer and do not play one on TV. I would appreciate your
  comments on this idea.
  
  Jim Devine [EMAIL PROTECTED] 
  http://clawww.lmu.edu/Faculty/JDevine/jdevine.html
  Bombing DESTROYS human rights. US/NATO out of Serbia!
 






[PEN-L:6675] RE: Re: Re: Re: Econometrics

1999-05-11 Thread Fellows, Jeffrey

IMHO the fascination with genetics and disease causation seems very
ideological. Perhaps once the human genome mapping is complete, and
widespread evaluation research shows genetic predispositions don't mean much
(statistically) for most adverse health conditions, we might be able to move
away from efforts to provide genetic causes for largely social problems. 

-Original Message-
From: Jim Devine [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED]]
Sent: Tuesday, May 11, 1999 1:22 PM
To: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Subject: [PEN-L:6663] Re: Re: Re: Econometrics


Natural science may be corrupt - a servant of power, money, and orthodoxy -
but I don't think you could sustain this kind of untruth for 30 years in
physics or biology, could you?

Economics is a more ideological subject than biology or physics, partly
because economics is so much more crucial to legitimating the system. That
is, economics' corruption is more systematic: individual biologists sell
out to drug industry, but the dominant school of economics as a whole has
sold out.

Jim Devine [EMAIL PROTECTED] 
http://clawww.lmu.edu/Faculty/JDevine/jdevine.html
Bombing DESTROYS human rights. US/NATO out of Serbia!






[PEN-L:6592] RE: on econometrics

1999-05-10 Thread Fellows, Jeffrey

Without econometrics, I doubt if I could argue that homicide was related to
poverty and income inequality instead of race and "southern culture."
Getting past the latter two myths is difficult enough as it is. Thankfully,
there is decent theory behind the empirical relationships, including how one
gets from income inequality to diffused interpersonal violence. 

I am not a skilled econometrician, and I would love to get any suggestions
others have for empirical methods that will be taken seriously by applied
scientists. Please send references.

Jeff

-Original Message-
From: Michael Perelman [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED]]
Sent: Monday, May 10, 1999 11:42 AM
To: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Cc: [EMAIL PROTECTED]; [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Subject: [PEN-L:6580] on econometrics


Can an econometric exercise ever produce anything more than a hint of an
interesting idea?  I suspect that a skillful econometrician can find a
relationship
between any two arbitrary data sets.

As econometric techniques become more sophisticated, become more
brittle.

How is a sophisticated econometric model more convincing than a simple
scatter diagram?

--

Michael Perelman
Economics Department
California State University
[EMAIL PROTECTED]
Chico, CA 95929
530-898-5321
fax 530-898-5901






[PEN-L:4505] RE: Re: Taylor Taylorism

1999-03-24 Thread Fellows, Jeffrey

I found the sections on Taylor and taylorism and Babbagism in Braverman's
Labor and Monopoly Capital to be very well done. 

-Original Message-
From: Charles Brown [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED]]
Sent: Wednesday, March 24, 1999 9:48 AM
To: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Subject: [PEN-L:4498] Re: Taylor  Taylorism




 Thomas Kruse [EMAIL PROTECTED] 03/24/99 06:35AM 
Dear PEN-L:

Any suggestions on a good introduction to Taylor and Taylorism?

(((

  " A "Scientific System of Sweating"

 by W.

  U.S. capitalism is ahead of all. The greatest development of technology
and the most rapid progress are facts which make old Europe emulate the
Yankees. But it is not the democratic institutions that the European
bourgeoisie is borrowing from America, nor political liberty, nor, yet the
republican political system, but the latest methods of exploiting workers.

 The most widely discussed topic today in Europe, and to some extent in
Russia, is the "system of the American engineer, Frederick Taylor. Not so
long ago Mr. Semyonov read a paper on this system in the assembly hall of
the Railway Engineering Institute in St. Petersburg. Taylor himself has
described his system under the title of "scientific", and his book is being
eagerly translated and promoted in Europe.

What is this "scientific system" ? Its purpose is to squeeze out of the
worker three times more labour during a working day of the same length as
before. The sturdiest and most skilful  worker is put to work: a special
clock registers - in seconds and fractions of a second - the amount of time
spent on each operation and each motion; the most economical and most
efficient working methods are developed; the work of the best worker is
recorded on cinematographic film, etc.

 The result is that, within the same nine or ten working hours as before,
they squeeze out of the worker three times more labour, mercilessly drain
him of all his strength, and are three times faster sucking out every drop
of the wage-slave's nervous and physical energy.  What if he dies earlier
than he did before ? Well, there are many others waiting at the gate !

 In capitalist society, progress in science and technology means progress in
the art of sweating.

  Here is an example from Taylor's book.
  Speaking of the operation of loading cast iron on the handcarts for
further processing, the author compares the old and the new, "scientific",
system:

 
Old New
 
system
  
 Number of workers engaged in loading   500140

 Average number of tons loaded by one
   worker ( a ton equals 61 poods) ..   16
39

  Average earnings of worker (rubles)..2.30
3.75

  Expenditure incurred by factory owner per
 ton of load (kopeks)14.4
6.4



The capitalist cuts his expenditure by _half_ or more. His profits grow. The
bourgeoisie is delighted and cannot praise the Taylors enough !

The workers get a wage increase at first. But hundreds of workers get the
sack. Those who are left have to work four times more intensively, doing a
back-breaking job. When he has been drained of all his strength, the worker
will be kicked out. Only young and sturdy workers are taken on. 

It is sweating in strict accordance with all the precepts of science.


Pravada No. 60, March 13, 1913
W. (V. I. Lenin) Collected Works Vol. 18, pp 594-95   






[PEN-L:3820] RE: Age discrimination in employment and earnings

1999-02-24 Thread Fellows, Jeffrey

Does anyone know of any recent empirical work on this subject?

Jeffrey L. Fellows, Ph.D.
Division of Violence Prevention
National Center for Injury Prevention and Control
U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
4770 Buford Highway NE (mailstop K60)
Atlanta, GA 30341-3724
tele: (770) 488-1529
fax: (770) 488-4349
Internet: [EMAIL PROTECTED]






[PEN-L:2773] RE: Re: Chimpanzees, AIDS and ecology

1999-02-01 Thread Fellows, Jeffrey

Why should the relation between socioeconomic status and HIV/AIDS be any
different than it is for another other illness and injury? 

-Original Message-
From: Sam Pawlett [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED]]
Sent: Monday, February 01, 1999 4:22 PM
To: [EMAIL PROTECTED]; [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Subject: [PEN-L:2771] Re: Chimpanzees, AIDS and ecology


Does anyone know of any reliable information on the genesis and
epidemiology  of HIV? The fact that it  disproportionately attacks
blacks, gays, drug addicts and the poor is just a little too convenient
for me. I know there is lot of conspiracy theory around HIV _AIDS and
the Doctors of Death_ by Alan Cantwell( not a good name for a doctor)
etc.One of the more plausible c-theories was that it was spread through
hepatitus B vaccines. The first reported case of HIV was in the early
80's, no?

Sam Pawlett






[PEN-L:2389] RE: Email address of Peter Arno

1999-01-21 Thread Fellows, Jeffrey

Does anyone have Peter Arno's e-mail address or phone number?

Jeffrey L. Fellows, Ph.D.
Economist
Division of Violence Prevention
National Center for Injury Prevention and Control
U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
4770 Buford Highway NE (mailstop K60)
Atlanta, GA 30341-3724
tele: (770) 488-1529
fax: (770) 488-4349
Internet: [EMAIL PROTECTED]






[PEN-L:1827] RE: Jim Craven vs. Clark College

1998-12-22 Thread Fellows, Jeffrey

Valis, did you even read the article?
 --
From: valis
 --

 Vancouver (Washington State) Columbian, Sunday Dec. 20, 1998

 Clark College restricts professor's computer use

 E-mail feud with Canadian student triggers hints of defamation lawsuit
 against college

 By Richard S. Clayton, Columbia staff writer
   
Yup, it can only be another day or two before the networks are obliged
to pick this one up.  Poor Clark!  It'll be toasted worse than Clinton.

 valis






[PEN-L:1005] RE: unemployed Ph.D.'s

1998-11-11 Thread Fellows, Jeffrey

I agree with Barkley that the whole line about tenured faculty hiring twits
as a way of protecting their own positions is unreasonable. I have
participated in the hiring processes of two econ departments, from the
employer's perspective, and I have never seen good candidates overlooked
regardless of their theoretical stance. In fact, most of the persons
actually interviewed were rejected because they would not have been able to
communicate or relate to their students. In this regard, I think heterodox
economists are overall more qualified than most neoclassicals. But, I also
think that heterodox economists have to know neoclassical theory much more
keenly than neoclassicals since we are asked to prove our knowledge more
often. We also suffer in the hiring/tenure process because of our
theoretical perspective, but this is something I am willing to accept if it
means independence from the 'Borg collective' (a Star Trek reference).

However, Lou's post is relevant to Pen-l since it does have meaning for many
current grad students and new PhDs in economics. I am a recently minted PhD
from the U of Utah, which is pretty well known for its marxist focus, even
though there are institutionalists, post-keynesians, and neoclassicals at
Utah as well. There has a heavy emphasis on history of thought, philosophy
of science, and little emphasis on empirical analysis and econometrics. I
liked these features and was helped a great deal by them (in terms of my
teaching and theoretical research). However, you can get lost in abstract
theoretical fields and dissertation work that may make you virtually
unemployable. A friend of mine at Utah suffered this fate, partially because
of his own delusions of the academic market's desire for heterodox
economists with backgrounds limited to "high theory," and partly from poor
advice (or ambivalence) from his PhD committee. He ended up hating much of
economics and the academe, and after a year or so was finally hired at a
community college. Another friend is wasting away as an adjunct for a
handful of LA-area schools. Most of the others from Utah I know have shit
jobs even by historical Uof U standards. To be competitive it seems one has
to have at least one applied field, or show that you can and want to do some
applied work. This is especially important for non-maintream economists.

I think econ departments can do more for their grad students. I was very
lucky in this regard. My committee chair was young, empirically oriented,
and gave guidance that turned out to be right on. I deliberately chose a
dissertation topic that was in a field I liked, yet was in demand (health),
and he helped me construct a dissertation that both exhibited marketable
skills (multiple regression analysis of a large dataset) and embodied a
marxian framework (proletarianization of physicians). So far the drift into
neo-marxian analysis has been temporary. I accepted it for expedience and a
wider range of future employment. Thankfully, I'm in a position where I can
do more classical marxian theoretical work alongside more mainstream
empirical work- schizophrenia being better than a neoclassical in drag ;-).
Even so, I am in a post-doctoral position that gives my employer two years
to test drive me at cut-rate prices (I do make more than most new assistant
professors). The higher-ups here (CDC) don't care about my theoretical
perspective, and I'm smart enough to not cram it in their faces either, so
things are looking okay. I worry a great deal that by the time I get back
into academia there won't be anything left worth going to.

Jeff



 --
From: Rosser Jr, John Barkley

 What did seem to be her practical bottom line was that
English grad students should be taught skills allowing them
to get non-academic jobs.  That may well be, but I see no
relevance of that to economists.  Hence, I did not see the
relevance of Lou's posting of this article to this list.
Barkley Rosser
nha
[EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:






[PEN-L:630] RE: teaching in prison

1998-10-23 Thread Fellows, Jeffrey

Thanks for the post Mike. I would also like to here from anyone involved
with teaching in prison and about teaching programs. I think the potential
for reducing recidivism (along with other benefits to the incarcerated)
makes these appealing programs. Jeff

 --
From: Mike Yates
To: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Subject: [PEN-L:615] teaching in prison
Date: Wednesday, October 21, 1998 9:48PM

Friends,

Last night I taught my first class in prison.  A friend of mine has been
teaching classes in Western Penitentiary, located along the Ohio river
in Pittsburgh, for some time and she talked me into giving a class in
economics next fall.  She wanted me to get acclimated so I agreed to do
a class on the economy last night.  It was a great experience.  About 10
guys, all black but one, attended and the discussion was very lively.  I
could have cried thinking about how interested and engaged these people
were compared to so many of my college students.  The state has
cancelled all money for these guys to get college credits and degrees,
despite the fact that such programs seem to work really well in reducing
recidivism.  My friend was so upset by this that she organized an
informal certificate program which is going well so far.

I was a little nervous berfore the class, not so much about going into a
prison but worried that I might be asked questions I could not answer.
The students were challenging but very respectful.  I'm sure I'll go
back.  One thing I did get nervous about was the drug "frisk".  A guard
runs this machine over you and then takes a sort of film out of the
machine and puts it into another machine and this machine is supposed to
be able to detect over a hundred different drugs.  I do not use drugs (I
quit so as not to be a bad influence on my sons, but this did not do
much good as it turned out!), but I brought this really old brief case
with me, and god knows what was once in it.  Anyway I passed the test!

Have people on the list taught in prisons?  If so, I'd be interested to
know about any materials you found useful.

in solidarity,

michael yates






[PEN-L:379] RE: right wing decline?

1998-10-03 Thread Fellows, Jeffrey

Maybe most people are not as historically naive as we might otherwise think.
Perhaps the educational system, the media, folks who were around 50 years
ago, etc. have driven home the idea that economic chaos breeds fascism and
so folks wary of slippery slopes wish to avoid sending supportive messages
to fascist candidates. Just a hopeful thought.
 --
From: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
To: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Subject: [PEN-L:378] right wing decline?
Date: Saturday, October 03, 1998 8:36PM

I see that Pauline Hansen did poorly in Australia.  The extreme right fell
back in Germany.  What is happening?  Are the conventional right parties
just coopting their program or is something else afoot?
 --
Michael Perelman
Economics Department
California State University
Chico, CA 95929

Tel. 530-898-5321
E-Mail [EMAIL PROTECTED]






[PEN-L:348] Query: PolEcon studies of tobacco trade

1998-10-02 Thread Fellows, Jeffrey

Hi folks:

Does anyone know of good articles on the political economy of the tobacco
and cigarette trade, particularly as it relates trade/investment
liberalization?

Jeff






[PEN-L:89] RE: Starr's report and Willy Freed on the same day

1998-09-10 Thread Fellows, Jeffrey

The sports media has mentioned that Mark McGuire hit homer number 61 on his
dad's 61st birthday. I was wondering if anyone had seen anything yet about
how Kieko the whale (of 'Free Willy' fame) was flown to Iceland on the same
day that Starr's report was delivered to Congress? My guess is there are
some good grins to be had.

Jeff






[PEN-L:1465] RE: Health care question

1998-09-03 Thread Fellows, Jeffrey


 --
From: michael perelman:

Dave Richardson continues to supply us with the excellent reports.  This
one struck me as curious:

Rising health care costs over the past 20 years have hit employers
harder than employees, the Employee Benefit Research Institute says.
Despite rising health costs in the last two decades and despite the
increased use of cost sharing by employers, individuals are paying a
smaller percentage of total health care costs today than in the past. In

recent years, employers have controlled cost increases by moving workers

into managed care health plans, expanding utilization review for active
workers, increasing premium cost-sharing with workers, and scaling back
retiree health care plans. ... (Daily Labor Report, page A-10).

Does this suggest that the companies just dropped health care for the
less favored workers and have been eating a larger share of the cost for
the more favored employees?

Yes and no. The proportion of workers without company health care workers is
rising. However, the proportion that employers pay their remaining employees
is also decreasing. The unmentionable part of this is that the proportion
paid by the state is rising (Medicaid and Medicare). There may also be a
larger portion of free health care, since the percentage of persons unable
to pay, but not covered by Medicaid, is getting larger.

Jeff






[PEN-L:937] query: Men/women earnings studies

1998-08-18 Thread Fellows, Jeffrey

Pen-lers:

Does anyone know of a good and recent study of earnings differences
between men and women related to both occupational tracking and pay
descrimination (comparable worth)?


Jeff






[PEN-L:408] RE: Naive question on Japanese Debt

1998-07-31 Thread Fellows, Jeffrey

I find it hard to believe that only Chrysler stockholdes would have been
hurt, even forgetting about union contracts which was a bigger pill to
swallow back then than it is now.

Consider:

Chrysler bankruptcy -- collapse in stock values -- collapse of asset
values used as collateral on other loans (by firms, banks, and wealthy
stockholders)--- banks owed money call-in loans, former stockholders
(firms, banks, etc.) sell assets, trim production costs, call-in other
loans--further bankruptcies-- return to step two. Anyone
associated with this chain will be adversely affected.

But,

New owner(s) [one of the remaining big two?] gets Chrysler
cheap---immediately halts production and investment on current and
potential money losers (and maybe future money earners: if I remember
correctly Iacocca (sp?) came to Chrysler with the K-car and minivan
ideas Ford higherups had vetoed, so no minivan craze and maybe
proportionally more jobs go to Mexico)--- lots of high-paying low-skill
jobs are cut and these folks are turned lose on other sectors, lowering
wages; supplier connections are altered and maybe employment is churned
as well, some win some lose; and let's not forget the absolute and
redistributive impacts of the increased degree of monopolization in the
auto industry.

If such scenarios are reasonable, it seems both lead to net negative
impacts on workers. But then again, who can say what might have
happened. If Chrysler goes banko, how would investors and corporate
managers have behaved after that? This is largely speculative
mumbo-jumbo in its own right, who knows what might have been. Who loses
and who wins is important. If some capitalists lose, do all capitalists
lose? Marxian analysis would say that the remainder will win. If some
workers lose, do all workers lose on the whole (even if an equal
proportion of workers also win)?

Jeff
 --
From: Michael Perelman
To: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Subject: [PEN-L:404] Re: Re: Naive question on Japanese Debt
Date: Friday, July 31, 1998 1:33PM

I wholly agreee with Randy.  Maybe we are are crazy but this talk of a
financial crisis seems to be constructed out of device to protect what
Marx called fictititous capital.  Forgetting about union contracts for
the moment, what would have happened if Chrysler had gone bankrupt and
somebody picked up the company for a fraction of what it had been worth
previously.  The new owner would have earned a healthy profit because
the investment would be low.  He could afford to pay good wages.  Only
the investors in Chrysler stock would have been hurt, along with a few
Mercedes dealers.  A minor shock at best.

We call it rational when firms downsize; why can't the stock market be
allowed to downsize and let the economy go on as before.

Maybe I am wrong/crazy   Nobody else on pen-l except Gene/Mat/and
Randy from afar seems to be interested in this.  So maybe I should drop
it.

Randy Wray wrote:

 1. someone recently told me a story of a financial official (i can't
 remember if it was a banker or a regulator) who had visited a mom
 and pop
 grocery store in denver to look over the books. her/his assessment
 was
 that the store was hopelessly bankrupt, and mom and pop didn't even
 know
 it. indeed, they had probably been bankrupt for years, and probably
 would
 remain so for years to come. so long as no one looked closely at the
 books
 and inventory (there had been stuff on the shelves for yrs, carried
 at
 purchase price but no longer of any value whatsoever), this store
 could
 remain in business for yrs to come. but any close analysis would cut
 off
 all bank credit and the store would close down. whaddyado?

 2. another story. a regulator at the occ assured me that he could
 take any
 bank, no matter how insolvent, and cook the books to keep it open
 for 5
 years. and hey, things might turn around.

 --

Michael Perelman
Economics Department
California State University
Chico, CA 95929

Tel. 916-898-5321
E-Mail [EMAIL PROTECTED]






[PEN-L:139] Re: Re: The Left and Inequality

1998-07-07 Thread Fellows, Jeffrey


 --
From: Gar W. Lipow:

I appreciate the  correction. It reinforces my point -- if income was
divided up more or less equally a more than 80% would be better off in
immmediate material terms (not mention the benefits of reduced
insecurity, lower crime rates )

Two questons

1). To get a feel for how more or less equal incomes would compare to
the way  people live now now, don't you have to substract capital
spending, ? Thus the revelevent figure would not be either real GDP or
direct wages, but real GDP less capital investment. When I say
revelevent, I mean to this particular aspect -- the material
advantages of equality.

My response: Capital spending by one firm is revenue to another firm, so
subtracting capital spending on investment goods would be inappropriate.
Capital depreciation may be an issue, but accurately measuring it is
very difficult. I also left the issue of unutilized capacity out of the
analysis. Certainly, the GDP/labor year figures have relevance only
insofar as we think GDP reflects the realization of new value. GDP
doesn't do a thing for nonmarket productive activities, particularly
those that do have use value but remain outside the scope of the market
(household production or reproduction).

My purpose in developing these estimates is to include future production
losses in calculating the cost-effectiveness of public health prevention
strategies (an emportant concern for my employer). I wanted to use
output per labor hour, instead of market earnings, as a basis for the
calculation. I assumed commodity market prices were the technical
measure of productivity, not earnings, and that a nonsubstitution
principle held, i.e., that a lost life represented a loss of a technical
potential to produce social wealth. In this way, I tried to avoid the
problems of marginalist theory vis-a-vis measuring technical
productivity, including the incompatability between wage rates and
productivity levels at the micro level, causal direction at the
macro-level, race/gender biases in wages and occupation, and the
inability of employers to redistribute capital among workers (related to
the first two issues). By using GDP/capita (age-weighted by relative
productivity [used median earnings of FTEs for each age group] and
average annual hours), researchers can make (I think) a more complete
case for health promotion and disease/injury prevention, at least in the
terms that most public health policy folks are used to considering. In
mainstream circles, it can be used to say "look, employers are losing
out too, and once they do substitute for a lost worker the remaining
loss, dare I say deadweight loss, is absorbed by society at large." In
left circles, with a nod given to my nondifferentiation between
productive and unproductive labor, I hope these estimates will be useful
for progressive research and purposes.

One issue I am still wrestling with is determining the best estimate for
future productivity growth. The post-WWII data says roughly 2 percent.
All of the middle-road future estimates say 1 percent. However, it seems
the 1 percent is too low. Has anyone seen anything that considers this
issue in a way that could support choosing one rate over the other? It
is not trivial, since it may mean a $200,000 difference in potential
lifetime output per capita. It is also important since my guess is that
about .4 percent of the increase will be necessary just to overcome the
potential demand problems associated with population aging.

Any help would be greatly appreciated.

I would also send anyone a draft of the paper for prepublication
comments.

2) I'd be curious to get a similar feel for what would happen if
income was redistributed among the worlds population.  The world GDP
figures I've heard are about $5,000-$6,000 per person -- which  might
not be advantagous in the industrialized world but would be a heck of
an improvement for 80% or 90% of humanity.

Jeff: Such comparisons depend largely on using purchasing power
parities, or similar method, to translate wealth in one currency to
wealth in another (like rupies to dollars). These methods don't work
well at all, so any comparison is fruitless. PPP-based comparisons may
work pretty well for USA-to-rich European country analyses.






[PEN-L:127] Re: The Left and Inequality

1998-07-06 Thread Fellows, Jeffrey

By my estimates, which will be published soon:

Real GDP/labor year [40hours a week x 52 weeks] in 1995 was $54,985 for
workers 16 and over. Real GDP/person with work experience was $48,093,
and per capita was $32,955. Of course, these figures do not include
accumulated wealth, which is what others have mentioned. According to
industry breakdowns in Gross Product Originating, actual employee
compensation accounted for about 57.9% of the total.

Jeff
 --
From: Gar W. Lipow
To: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Subject: [PEN-L:125] Re: Re: Re: The Left and Inequality
Date: Monday, July 06, 1998 2:57PM

Actually I think that even in terms of income that this is plain
wrong. I recently saw the figure cited on the LBO list that if the
U.S.GDP were distributed equally per hour worked (after substacting
capital investment) then pre-tax earnings would be $22 an hour.

This means a single earner family would earn $44,000 a year for a
forty hour work week. A dual earner family would earn $88,000 a year.






[PEN-L:107] RE: Poverty and illness

1998-07-02 Thread Fellows, Jeffrey

The Wilkenson is excellent, and represents a growing body of research on
the negative association between income inequality and morbidity and
mortality. Wilkenson makes a nice connection between the social stresses
created by poverty and low social status and biological disfunction. It
is a good complement to the largely population-based research on the
subject. The income inequality research is a subset of a much larger,
and growing, body of work on the negative relationship between
socioeconomic status and morbidity and mortality, including personal
violence. The American Journal of Public Health devoted its September,
1997 issue to social class and health, and the August 15, 1997 issue of
Science has an interesting piece by Sampson, Raudenbush, and Earls, on
neighborhood violence, SES, and social protective factors for homicide.

Marxists are probably most aware of the role of poverty in fostering
social forms of violence.  For personal violence, low SES has a
well-established impact on the incidences and severity of intimate
partner violence, child abuse and neglect, and youth violence.
Increasing income has also been shown to be protective for future
(personal) violence for persons at risk, such as children witnessing
parental violence who may or may not have violence intimate
relationships in the future.

A note of caution, the role of economics in intimate partner violence
must be examined in a way that addresses the way in which market work
roles impact the relative power of abuser and abused. Some earlier work
posited that which ever spouse earned the most income would use their
higher status to wield control over their partner. In other words, if a
married woman earned twice as much as her husband, she would have the
decisive decision-making authority in the family. This is certainly not
the case, women who earn more than their working-class husbands are
generally at greater risk for IPV than women who do not earn as much as
their husbands. A good example of work in this area is Karen Pyke,
"Women's Employment As a Gift or Burden?: Marital Power Across Marriage,
Divorce, and Remarriage," in Gender  Society, v8(1), March 1994, pp.
73-91.

I am currently working on a review paper of the SES and personal
violence literature. I will share it with others when it is done.

Jeff
 --
From: Louis Proyect
To: [EMAIL PROTECTED]; [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Subject: [PEN-L:106] Poverty and illness
Date: Thursday, July 02, 1998 1:35PM

Life  Death on the Social Ladder

HELEN EPSTEIN

July 16, 1998

BOOKS DISCUSSED IN THIS ARTICLE

Unhealthy Societies: The Afflictions of Inequality by Richard G.
Wilkinson
255 pages, $75.00 (hardcover), $20.99 (paperback) published by Routledge

Healthy Work: Stress, Productivity, and the Reconstruction of Working
Life
by Robert Karasek and Töres Theorell 381 pages, $16.00 (paperback)
published by Basic Books

Why Zebras Don't Get Ulcers: A Guide to Stress, Stress-Related Diseases,
and Coping by Robert M. Sapolsky 368 pages, $14.95 (paperback) published
by
W.H. Freeman

The Power of Clan: The Influence of Human Relationships on Heart Disease
by
Stewart Wolf and John G. Bruhn 192 pages, $21.95 (paperback) published
by
Transaction






[PEN-L:427] Re: The Economic Meaning of Violence/2

1998-06-04 Thread Fellows, Jeffrey

It is important how you specify "decades." Clearly, over the last decade
crime rates have been going down, at the same time incarcerations have
dramatically risen. This does not mean that incarceration prevents
crimes, although many criminal justice researchers, and social
conservatives, are quick to make this link. I do not have the article on
hand, so I can't comment on the source of his crime data. If he is using
the national crime victimization survey, instead of police reports
(uniform crime reports), then the numbers will be higher. However, the
1994 NCVS was redesigned to better estimate crimes like rape and sexual
assault. This resulted in higher numbers in 1994, vs 1992, data.

If, however, the author includes the rapid rate increases in the 1960s
mid-1980s, but does not separate out the leveling and declines during
the 1990s, then his analysis is flawed.

In the data I have seen, and worked with, nothing leads me to believe
that criminal behavior, or crimes, are on the rise, let alone outpaced
the imprisonment growth rate (itself greatly constrained by limited
capacity). In fact, this is a relationship progressives need to
communicate, i.e., that crime is falling. So let's redirect public
resources toward equitable health, housing and education.

To be fair, I will read the article before offering further criticism.

Jeff

 --
From: Thomas Kruse
To: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Subject: [PEN-L:420] Re: The Economic Meaning of Violence/2
Date: Thursday, June 04, 1998 8:52AM

I'm wondering if anyone knows of any writing on the economic meaning of
violence

My, what a post; really got the old brain clunking.  I just read Isaach
Ehrlich's "Crime, Punishment, and the Market for Offenses" in the
Journal of
Econ Perspective, v10, n1, winter 1996.  One intersting note, perhaps
relevant to your prupose. Ehrlich notes:

 - "crime has been a growth industry in the US over the last decades"
(he
looks at murder, rape, robbery, aggravated assualt, burglary, larceny,
auto
theft)

 - "the probabalility and severity of punishment has been falling over
the
last three decades.  A lower percentage of offenses known to police is
resulting in arrest; the probability of imprisonment is smaller; and the
time served in prison is shorter"

 - "the growth in prison population, substantial as it is, has not kept
up
with the even larger growth in criminal behavior."

Ehrlich notes, from his peculiar neo-classical view, the state can't
keep up
with crime (dole out "negative incentives" fast enough).  Now, does
violence
(in this case "crime") -- might be that "whole vast arena of action that
laws have not prohibited that violence by individuals and groups has
policed" -- serve the functioning of the capitalist economy?  Does that
violence add up to policing, that is, help in the process of producing a
docile body politic, manageble laboring classes, and a neutralized
reserve army?

You post suggests two kinds of violence (many more are possible): state
sanctioned, and not.  Not would presumably be other kinds of violence in
society (abusive coercion at work, rape, gay bashing, domestic abuse,
"hate
crimes", etc.).  Both state sanctioned or not, however, require a great
deal
more specification.

Once specified, I imagine in some instance we'd have to back off simple
functionalist depictions of violence (implied in my questions above).
Some
forms are very ambiguous (though admitted some are definitely not).

.

Changing tack abruptly (it's late), an observation from anthropology:
there
are numerous examples of cultures and civilizations not forced to
"choose"
between legally enforceable property rights (contracts backed by police)
and
generalized violence, be it state sanctioned or in "vast arenas" not yet
criminalized/regulated, and carried out by individuals and groups.
Numerous
other mechanisms for assuring mutual accountability and control over the
social distribution of property without such violence are evident -- not
equitable, but evident.

I would recommend Penelope Harvey and Peter Gow's volume _Sex and
Violence:
Issues in Representation and Experience_.  See especially Olivia Harris'
article "Condor and Bull" on masculity, social order and violence in
rural
Bolivia.  Very suggestive on where kinds of violence come from; how they
are
played out; how they become "meaningfull".  She notes, for example, four
contexts of violence:

"1. feuds between ayllus (communities) over territorial borders which
are
known in the Aymara and Quechua of the region as ch'axwa;
2. the battles genearlly known as as tinku which are highly
insitutionalized
and closely associatec with the ritual calendar;
3. the fights between individual or groups which break out during
fiestas as
a result of interpersonal tensions;
4. the common place violence of men against their wives"

In each context she distinguishes who attacks who, relative balance in
the
confrontation, etc.  In her account she departs from functionalism;
violence
is not simply a 

[PEN-L:188] RE: pen-l format: removing the prefix from the subject line

1998-05-22 Thread Fellows, Jeffrey

I think the PEN-L prefix enables me to easily distinguish between this
list and the much less useful PKT. But then again, I would rather suffer
through PKT posts to get to pen-l posts if it meant losing people.

Jeff
 --
From: Barnet Wagman
To: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Subject: [PEN-L:186] pen-l format: removing the prefix from the subject
line
Date: Friday, May 22, 1998 12:59PM

Is it possible - without a lot of work - to remove the [PEN-L:xxx]
prefix from the
subject line?

The prefix (actually just the message number) screws up Netscape's
threading,
which
makes reading a series of related comments much less convenient.

Does anyone else feel this way?

Thanks,

Barnet Wagman

__

Barnet Wagman

[EMAIL PROTECTED]

773-645-8369

2118 W. Le Moyne St., 1st floor
Chicago, IL 60622
__






Re: What makes a progressive student (was David Harvey's anomie)

1998-05-01 Thread Fellows, Jeffrey

Maggie's post about students not appreciating having their
preconceptions challenged struck a familiar chord. It brings up an issue
I think all progressive academics are concerned with, namely can and do
professors substantially transform students' attitudes about society, or
do they largely provide a framework that makes sense to students'
established world view? Also, is there any sense that exposure to
progressive ideas leads to attitude changes that are sustained over long
periods, with or without what I could call ideological booster shots?

Jeff
 --
From: MScoleman
To: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Subject: Re: David Harvey's anomie
Date: Thursday, April 30, 1998 10:06PM

In a message dated 98-04-29 21:32:47 EDT, you write:

 Hmm, really? My own recent tours of campuses, and conversations with
 academics, combine to present a less pretty picture of the U.S. college
 population. They seem, for the most part, poorly educated and don't
seem to
 give a fuck about much of anything. Am I just being too gloomy once
again?

 Doug 

I recently had my classes read pieces of Edin and Lein's "Making Ends
Meet"
which is a comparison of the lives of welfare women and low wage women,
and
how they feed their kids with not enough money.  The reactions of all my
students, save one, before they read the material was that welfare women
are
all lazy and promiscuous.  AFter my lecture and reading the material,
most of
them were not particularly happy with having their perceptions blurred
-- but
that's about as progressive as most of them are (at least in my
classes).
maggie coleman [EMAIL PROTECTED]





Re: Good news: Welfare gains made in the last six years

1998-04-08 Thread Fellows, Jeffrey

AFDC has been renamed. It is now Temporary Aid to Needy Families (TANF),
or some such phrasing. I understand that federal block grant payments to
states for TANF are larger than the former federal AFDC funding.
However, I believe that the actual distribution of money payments to
families and individuals is lower under TANF than AFDC. Is there anyone
on the list who can confirm my understanding?

Jeff
 --
From: Louis Proyect
To: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Subject: Re: Good news: Welfare gains made in the last six years
Date: Wednesday, April 08, 1998 10:33AM

At 07:01 AM 4/8/98 -0700, you wrote:


GOOD NEWS:  THE WELFARE GAINS MADE IN THE LAST SIX YEARS

-  Nathan Newman


Even as many of us organize against the punitive effects of welfare
"deform" and other social attacks, we should not ignore the successes
and
gains we have made in the last decade.  Too much focus on losses can
lead
not to action but to disempowerment, so this post will lay out some
good
news on our successes embodied in the federal budget.

This is obscene spin-doctoring on behalf of the reactionary Clinton. The
problem we are facing is cutbacks in state aid to needy families. It is
state funding not federal funding that goes into the AFDC program, which
has been overthrown. Any increase in federal funding is more than offset
by
state cuts. The reason that these state cuts have been made is because
the
Democratic White House functions as an extension of the Reaganite attack
on
the safety net. Clinton offered no effective oppositon to the assault on
AFDC for the same reason that he pushed so hard for NAFTA. He is a tool
of
big business.

Louis Proyect





Query: NC theory leads to extinction

1998-03-27 Thread Fellows, Jeffrey

 Pen-lers:

Can someone provide a good source for the above statement? Preferably an
admission by a well-known NC economist. Also, does anyone know if a
similar (and well done) argument has been made wrt humans, in the
context of CBA of environmental and public health policies?

Let me know if my request is unclear.

Jeff 





RE: [Fwd: Crime and Punishment 1999 (fwd)]

1998-03-20 Thread Fellows, Jeffrey

Thank you for the reference Michael. I am organizing a long-term project
roughly called "the economic causes and consequences of violence: a
public health approach."  The book will examine the public health issues
of family and intimate partner violence, youth violence, and suicide,
from a similar point of view.  It will include sections on the economic
causes (influences) of violence, the economic costs of violence, and the
potential impact of violence prevention programs. I am currently working
on narrower aspects of this subject, i.e., filling in the pieces.

The criminal justice approach focuses on legally-defined crimal acts.
The public health approach uses more of an episode-of-illness (or
injury) classification. This can be a very important  distinction
(especially to Marxists) when you have categories of violence not
defined as a crime.

Jeff
 --
From: Michael Perelman
To: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Subject: [Fwd: Crime and Punishment 1999 (fwd)]
Date: Friday, March 20, 1998 12:02PM



Sid Shniad wrote:

  H. Bruce Franklin review in the Guardian Weekly:
  CRIME AND PUNISHMENT IN AMERICA By Elliott Currie
  Holt/Metropolitan. 230pp. US$23
 
  THIS IS a very unfashionable book.  Elliott Currie does not believe
that
  we need to build more and more prisons,  impose longer sentences,
make
  prisons as harsh as possible, eliminate  educational opportunities
for
  prisoners, reinstitute chain gangs, treat  juvenile offenders as
adults,
  and divert still more funds from social  services to penal
institutions.
  He clings to the old-fashioned notion that  we should concentrate
more on
  the prevention of crime. He even goes so far  as to accept the
hopelessly
  outdated idea that widespread poverty is the  main cause of violent
  crime. If all this were not antiquated enough,  Currie also
evidently
  assumes that rational argument based on scientific  knowledge --
i.e.
  reason and facts -- can change social policy. Even his  prose style
is
  anachronistic: earnest, free of jargon, lucid.
 
When Currie, who has taught sociology and criminology at Yale and
  Berkeley,  advanced similar arguments in his 1985 volume Confronting
  Crime, the New York Times reviewer noted that the "biggest
incarceration
  binge in merican history" had increased the nation's prison
population
  from fewer than 200,000 in 1970 to 454,000 by 1984. What may have
seemed
  an astonishing number of inmates back in 1984 is dwarfed by the
current
  prison population of 1.2 million, plus an additional half-a-million
  people in local jails.
 
  The United States now has by far the largest prison system on the
planet.
  There are more prisoners in California alone than in any other
country
  in the world except China and Russia. The present U.S. rate of
  incarceration is  six times the global average, seven times that of
  Europe, 14 times that  of Japan, 23 times that of India. European
rates
  of incarceration are  consistently well below 100 per 100,000
population;
  the rate of incarceration  of African-American males is close to
4,000 per
  100,000.
 
  As Currie puts it  in the present volume, "mass incarceration has
been
  the most thoroughly  implemented government social program of our
time,"
  and we have thus been  conducting a gigantic social "experiment,"
  "testing the degree to  which a modern industrial society can
maintain
  public order through the threat of punishment."
 
   Has this experiment worked? Media attention has recently
highlighted the
  falling rate of crime for the past four years. As Currie
demonstrates,
  this decline has come during a period of unusually low unemployment
and
  relative prosperity, actually bolstering his thesis that extreme
poverty
  is the main cause of crime. Moreover, he notes that the crime rate
has
  been falling only in relation to the extremely high levels of
1990-93.
 
  If we compare 1996 with 1984, the year cited in the review of
Currie's
  earlier volume, we discover that the crime rate (according to the
FBI's
  annual Crime Index) has actually risen 13 percent. The costs of this
  social experiment are immense. As Currie points out, the money spent
on
  prisons has been "taken from the parts of the public sector that
  educate, train, socialize, treat, nurture, and house the population
--
  particularly the children of the poor." Currie if anything
understates
  the consequences elsewhere in the public sector. For example,
California
  now spends more on prisons than on higher education. Crime And
Punishment
  In America cogently debunks what Currie labels the "myths" that
rationalize
  and legitimize the prison craze.
 
  The "myth of leniency" (the prevailing notion that criminals are
being let
  off too easily or let out too soon) is shown to be based on phony
  statistics, "unless we believe that . . . everyone convicted of an
offense
  -- no matter how minor -- should be sent to jail or prison, and that
all
  of those sent to prison should stay there for the rest 

RE: funny story about AER (was ASSA session cuts)

1998-03-20 Thread Fellows, Jeffrey

A few years back, the University of Utah library tried to use journal
usage as a method of deciding which journal subscriptions to maintain.
They told patrons to leave the journals on the tables after examination,
instead of reshelving them. After a period of time, the library began
labelling the journals which were to have their subscriptions cancelled.
The AER was on the list!

As a qualifier, I think many of the few mainstream faculty (and the
department) had the AER in their offices. I do doubt the AER was allowed
to be cancelled, external program review problems and such, but it was a
hoot to see the cancellation notice. I bet similar use studies (crude as
it was) would produce the same results at many mainstream schools.

Jeff
 --
From: Colin Danby
To: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Subject: ASSA session cuts
Date: Thursday, March 19, 1998 9:11PM

Barkley:

Great letter.  Is there any value in having more of us
unwashed types write in support?  If so can you post a
name and address to write to?

Thanks, Colin

PS If AEA is busily stifling us hets is there any good
reason to remain a member?  I could easily manage
without my own copies of its ubiquitous ( iniquitous)
journals.





RE: What went right -- once again

1998-03-19 Thread Fellows, Jeffrey

IMHO, it seems that declining living standards, or at least stagnating
relative to productivity, represents the redefinition  of what Marx
referred to as the culturally-specific subsistence wage (CSSW). In Marx,
the subsistence wage is defined socially. So here in the US, access to a
car or health insurance would be considered part of the cultural
subsistence wage. This would necessarily change over time as part of the
development process. As this cultural subsistence wage is pushed down
toward actual subsistence, or actual growth in cultural subsistence wage
is less than its expected growth, the rate of surplus value (or, more
narrowly, the profit rate) increases. With increasing profits come
increased investment, lower unemployment, increased output, and etc
All appear good.

But why doesn't the population stand up against the relative reduction
in the CSSW?  A safety valve, perhaps, has been the growth of
indebtedness. But indebtedness is not the only part of this. With the
widening use of consumer debt and leasing, mainly autos (I think auto
leases are not included in consumer debt?), broad consumption patterns
have changed. I think the change over the years from a save-till-you-buy
to a buy-now-pay(w/ interest)-later pattern has mediated the deleterious
impacts of a lower (or stagnating)  CSSW. This brings up a question,
what is the impact on aggregate demand associated with a shift over time
from savings-based consumption to debt-based consumption? In addition,
if the capacity to add debt at an individual level can stabilize demand
(assuming of course that the supply of debt is forthcoming), what
happens when this option has been expended (or retracted all together)?

I may be wrong, pointing to the smallest tree in the forest, or beating
a dead horse. But that is not new.

Jeff
 --
From: Michael Perelman
To: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Subject: What went right -- once again
Date: Thursday, March 19, 1998 12:25PM

Louis Proyect said that he thought that I was being ironic with my
original
question.  I was, but only to an extent.  The economy looks so good
from the
top.  The stock market is soaring.  Business is in command.  Even labor
is doing
a bit better in some ways.

I don't think that this situation will last, but I never would have
predicted
that the economy would have been doing this well, this long [from the
perspective of those on top].

We Marxists [even Chico Marxists] tend to see impending crises
everywhere all
the time.  Maybe as Rob S. said, E. Asia is the thin wedge.  Maybe not.

Why have the capitalists succeeded?  Some answered the redistribution of
income
and the defeat of labor [which I suspect is not unrelated to the fall of
the
USSR].  I also think of the opening of E. Europe, China, etc. to
capitalism.  I
suspect that more is involved.

I don't think that it will take much to prick the bubble, but still the
economy
has been more resiliant than I had expected.
 --
Michael Perelman
Economics Department
California State University
Chico, CA 95929

Tel. 916-898-5321
E-Mail [EMAIL PROTECTED]






Re: What went right

1998-03-12 Thread Fellows, Jeffrey

Part of the answer may lie in the correlation between the Fed and the
Canadian Central Bank. I remember a study by a former professor of mine
at Utah indicating the CCB acted like the 13th District in the U.S.
Federal Reserve System. How this may relate to wider economic
experiences between Canada and the US  I cannot say.

Jeff
 --
From: Michael Perelman
To: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Subject: Re: What went right
Date: Thursday, March 12, 1998 10:44AM

Interesting data.  Why would the Canadian and U.S. banks be so much more
successful in increasing their profitability?

Mark Jones wrote:

 Here are the figures on commercial bank profitability, from the IMF
1997
 report, International Capital Markets Developments, Prospects, and Key
 Policy Issues (supplementary tables), which demonstrates the adverse
 turn in the fortunes of Germany and Japan v. the Anglo-Saxon world.
Not
 much signs of hyperaccumulation here (and the opaque German and
Japanese
 figures are probably over-optimistic). In the later period it would
 appear to be the case that the major purchaser of US govt. and
 commercial bonds was not Germany or Japan - but the United Kingdom.

 Major Industrial Countries: Commercial Bank Profitability
   Real Return on Equity 1(In percent of total assets)
  1985-89 1990-94
 Canada7.9   12.1
 France . . .   -3.3
 Germany   6.5   2.7
 Italy. . .-1.2
 Japan 10.4 1.5
 United Kingdom   6.1 4.9
 United States   5.0  8.5

 Sources: International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook database;
  OECD (1996); and IMF staff estimates.
 1. Calculated as net income after taxes divided by capital and
reserves
 at the end of the previous year, minus consumer price index for the
 year.



 --
Michael Perelman
Economics Department
California State University
Chico, CA 95929

Tel. 916-898-5321
E-Mail [EMAIL PROTECTED]






FW: Violence Prevention Research : Program Announcement # 98029charset=iso-8859-1

1998-03-05 Thread Fellows, Jeffrey

Please forward to anyone who might be interested...
___
Now Available via the Federal Register (access via the Internet is
overdue and may happen today) .

Applications for program announcement,"Grants for Violence-Related
Injury Prevention Research" are due April 27, 1998.

Approximately $2.0 million is expected to be available for injury
research grants in the areas of suicidal behavior, firearm-related
injury, sexual violence, and intimate partner violence.  Specific
priorities in these areas are as follows:

1.  Injury prevention research addressing emerging issues in
suicidal behavior

¦   Conduct research to develop and improve
measurement instruments for the
identification and study of suicides and suicide
attempts in surveys, research
studies, and surveillance systems.
¦   Conduct research designed to improve
understanding of the nature of suicide
risk among emerging high-risk populations such
as young African American
males.
¦   Conduct research that further illuminates
understanding of the contribution of
potential risk factors for suicide such as
impulsivity, sexual orientation, and
hopelessness.

2.  Injury prevention research addressing firearm-related injuries
among children and adolescents

¦   Conduct research to improve understanding of the
motivations and deterrents
for weapon carrying behavior among adolescents
at high risk for
firearm-related injuries.
¦   Conduct research that estimates injury risk
associated with firearm storage or
carriage practices.
¦   Conduct research that addresses the effects of
firearm safety training and
education programs on firearm storage and
carriage practices.

3.  Injury prevention research addressing sexual violence or
intimate partner violence

¦   Conduct research to address the impact of
welfare and welfare-to-work
programs on women (and their children) who
experience intimate partner
violence.
¦   Conduct research to determine the effectiveness
of prevention programs for
adolescent males at risk for perpetration of
sexual violence or intimate partner
violence or intervention programs for
perpetrators of sexual violence or
intimate partner violence.
¦   Conduct research on risk factors for
perpetration of sexual violence.

Eligible applicants include all nonprofit and for-profit organizations.
Thus, State and local health departments and State and local
governmental agencies, universities, colleges, research institutions,
and other public and private organizations, including small, minority
and/or woman-owned businesses are eligible for these research grants.
Current holders of CDC injury control research projects are eligible to
apply.

The fastest means to receive the program announcement, application and
other relevant information  is  via the internet.  The address is  
http://www.cdc.gov/funding.htm Individuals should then look
under the topic heading  "Injury" for program announcement #98029.
Contact me at  770/488-4824, if you have additional questions.


Ted Jones, Program Manager
Research Grants Program
Office of Research Grants
National Center for Injury Prevention
   and Control





Re: the Titanic

1998-02-24 Thread Fellows, Jeffrey

Sisyphus.

Jeff Fellows
 --
From: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
To: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Subject: Re: the Titanic
Date: Monday, February 23, 1998 5:47PM

In a message dated 98-02-23 15:57:51 EST, you write:

 Can anyone think of a better metaphor than the Titanic one?
  
Well, Jim, since you asked, how about Dante's Inferno.  An eternity of
crises.

maggie coleman [EMAIL PROTECTED]




RE: query: bio chem weapons

1998-02-13 Thread Fellows, Jeffrey

I went to graduate school (econ) at the U of Utah between 1990 and 1994.
I remembered the pronunciation but not the spelling.

The stats came from a report I saw in 1993 or 1994, it gave tonnage
figures for each state, along with the corporate culprits. It may have
been from the EPA, but I cannot remember. Around that time I was also
doing a wage survey for the State of Utah, so my access to the report
may have come from there.  Perhaps someone working on environmental
issues would be able to help on this. I have never forgotten those
numbers though. Of course, I also remember every phone number I have had
since I was literally six years old. The cognitive clutter of life.

The GSL has been receding over the last decade. In general, it's not a
place many Utahns find appealing. It is the region's clogged bathtub. So
along with its exceedingly high salt content (17% or some such figure),
which gives it an oppressive smell, it is the final resting place for
any industrial and sewage waste that gets past the water treatment
systems.

Jeff

 --
From: john gulick
To: [EMAIL PROTECTED]; [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Subject: RE: query: bio  chem weapons
Date: Thursday, February 12, 1998 10:55AM

At 03:43 PM 2/12/98 -0500, Jeff Fellows wrote:

The Tooella incinerator is 40 miles west of Salt
Lake City. Just west of the city is a magnesium plant that puts out
more
tons of particulate material each year than all the industries in
California (130 million tons to 99 million tons).

It's "Tooele" (but pronounced too-ELL-uh). Where did you get those stats
on that magnesium plant? Hard to believe. About ten years ago I remember
that SLC was on the verge of being swamped by a rising Great Salt Lake.
That magnesium plant is within a stone's throw of the lake's shoreline,
with a huge pile of slag and tailings beside it. Also hard for me to
believe that the GSL isn't contaminated by that pile.

John Gulick




RE: query: bio chem weapons

1998-02-12 Thread Fellows, Jeffrey

Chemical weapons are held in Umatilla, Oregon and Tooella (sp?), Utah.
In both places the US Army are going to use incinerators to "dispose" of
them. I believe the Utah incinerator is on-line, and exposing about
600,000 Utahns to risk. The Tooella incinerator is 40 miles west of Salt
Lake City. Just west of the city is a magnesium plant that puts out more
tons of particulate material each year than all the industries in
California (130 million tons to 99 million tons). The Umatilla
incinerator is still in the planning stages (I am not up to date on the
political discussion there). The Umatilla depot is about 30 miles west
of Pendleton (60-70K population) and 100 miles east of Portland, Oregon.
Both incinerators are based on a Philippines plant design that has been
questioned.

Jeff Fellows
 --
From: James Devine
To: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Subject: query: bio  chem weapons
Date: Thursday, February 12, 1998 2:35PM

Does the US currently have stockpiles of chemical and biological
weapons,
as far as anyone knows?

in pen-l solidarity,


Jim Devine   [EMAIL PROTECTED] 
http://clawww.lmu.edu/1997F/ECON/jdevine.html
"A society is rich when material goods, including capital, are cheap,
and
human beings dear."  -- R.H. Tawney.





Re: Economic prose

1998-02-05 Thread Fellows, Jeffrey

Michael Perelman wrote:

Marshall once said -- I think Paul Davidson might have mentioned this
on the
list before -- that once you have used your math to clear up your ideas,
you
should throw away the math and communicate in words.  He was right.

I agree with this statement. However, after reading D. McCloskey's
article on Rhetoric in graduate school, I was taken by the peculiarity
of its placement within the historical development of neoclassical
economic theory. Over the course of NC econ development, the standard
bearers have tried to respond to methodological and empirical criticisms
from the left.  For example, questions about the validity of
neoclassical assumptions prompted Freidman to propose that realistic
assumptions meant nothing, so long as they led to correct predictions;
the predictions were later challenged; and so on. IMHO, just as it seems
the list of possible defenses is exhausted, the McCloskey article
appears and announces that the one (theoretician) with the best story
will win the day. The implication seemed to be that even though the
orthodoxy is incapable of reproducing itself on "scientific" grounds, it
sure does tell a good (liberal) story.

Although I found the McCloskey article appealing, it did seem (at the
time) to be a rather thinly veiled defense of orthodoxy.  But can you
defend faulty science with good prose? Only if you are part of the
orthodoxy.

Jeff Fellows






RE: Raped environment led polluters on, attorneys argue

1998-01-24 Thread Fellows, Jeffrey

Sid:

I love good satire. But I must object to posting unlabeled satirical
pieces on pen-l. I do not have the time to worry about the authenticity
of each item you present on pen-l. The more you post these pieces, the
more skeptical I become of the other interesting articles you provide.
The artistic value of "good" satire stands on its own, so please remove
the braces.

Jeff
 --
From: Sid Shniad
To: [EMAIL PROTECTED]; [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Subject: Raped environment led polluters on, attorneys argue
Date: Friday, January 23, 1998 6:11PM

http://www.theonion.com January 21, 1998

RAPED ENVIRONMENT LED POLLUTERS ON, DEFENSE
ATTORNEYS ARGUE

OLYMPIA, WA--In their opening statement before jurors Monday,
defense attorneys representing Pacific North Construction  Lumber Corp.
argued that their client was not at fault for the July 1997 rape of
30,000
acres of virgin forest, claiming that the forest led the development
company
on with "an eager and blatant display of its rich, fertile bounty."
"While, obviously, it is extremely unfortunate that this forest
was
raped, it should have known better than to show off its lush greenery
and
tall, strong trees in the presence of my client if it didn't want
anything to
happen," said lead defense attorney Dennis Schickle, speaking before a
courtroom packed with members of the media. "It's only natural for any
red-blooded American developer to get ideas in its head when it's
presented
with that kind of untouched beauty."
"The bottom line is," Schickle continued, "if you're going to
tease and
encourage like that, openly flaunting your abundant natural resources,
don't
be surprised by the consequences."
Public opinion regarding the high-profile case, which is being
closely
watched by timber-industry lobbyists and victims' rights groups across
the
U.S., is deeply divided. While some contend that the forced ravaging of
a
piece of land until it is stripped bare is never justifiable under any
circumstances, others say that such an action is understandable if the
wooded area gives off mixed signals.
"The Pacific North Construction  Lumber Corp. had every reason
to
believe that that forest wanted it bad," said logger Victor Duffy of
Chelan,
WA. "Just look at where it was at the time of the incident: It was in a
secluded, far-off place, nearly 25 miles from the nearest road. What
were
those trees doing in that kind of remote spot if they weren't looking
for
trouble?"
Those siding with the timber company also cite the forest's
history,
claiming that it has a reputation for being easily exploited.
"Believe me, this is no virgin forest," said Frank Abbate, owner
of the
Bellingham-based GH Consolidated Timber. "It may try to pass itself off
as pristine and untouched, but I know for a fact that it has a long
history of
allowing itself to be used by developers."
In his opening statement, defense attorney Schickle also pointed
out
that when Pacific North loggers arrived at the forest on the day in
question,
its floor was covered in alluring, fragrant flowers that were "clearly
meant
to attract."
"When a forest drapes itself in flora of every color and scent
imaginable, it's obviously asking for it," Schickle said. "I'm sure the
plaintiff
will argue that these radiant flowers were meant to lure pollen-hungry
bees,
not pulp-hungry loggers. But how was my client supposed to know this?
When was it made clear that this colorful display was meant to attract
one
particular species of fauna but no other? When was it made clear that
this
forest was looking to satisfy the needs of bees and bees only?"
Russell Belanger, president of the National Timber And Logging
Association, agreed. "This forest made it seem like it wanted it, then
cried
environmental rape when it got it," he said. "At some point, we've got
to
start asking ourselves who the real victim is in these cases: our
nation's
promiscuous, manipulative forests, or the good, decent developers out
there who are just trying to make an honest living razing the land."




RE: Critiques of NC risk analysis

1998-01-08 Thread Fellows, Jeffrey

Pen-l'ers:

Does anyone know of a good radical critique of NC risk analysis? I am
particularly interested in applications to health care, including
questions related to estimating risks of illness and injury.

Jeff Fellows
Nat Center for Injury Prevention and Control
Atlanta, Georgia
(770) 488-1529
[EMAIL PROTECTED]




re: Doug's question

1997-12-08 Thread Fellows, Jeffrey

Jim:

It is my experience that HMOs use a rather long list of intermediate
outcomes to measure output. Health and illness are social constructs,
and their quantification and measurement at the individual level is very
difficult. So HMOs typically count services, such as the number of
mammograms or flu shots, as an output. Insofar as the output (health,
functional status, patient satisfaction, etc.) in health care is
difficult to quantify, standardizing intermediate outcomes and health
care production processes have been the primary focus in the emerging
capitalist health care delivery system. One "outcomes" measurement
method, called HEDIS, has only one actual health outcome (low birth
weight, which can also be thought of as intermediate) among a list of 20
or so intermediate outcomes.

The system is becoming capitalist in the sense that health care
providers are increasingly becoming separated from both the means of
production and the markets for their products. In the former structure,
docs were able to utilize their control over markets, i.e. direct access
to patients, to wield considerable control over hospitals, insurers, et
al. (V. Navarro properly characterized this control as one being granted
by capital interests as a means of veiling the social causes of illness
from the population). The past and present systems currently coexist and
the constantly changing features of health care delivery and policy
reflect an intense power struggle between managed care firms and
physicians over control of the industry. For anyone interested in
studying the capitalist transformation of an industry in real time, the
U.S. health care system is a very rich area.

The difficulty in measuring and quantifying health outcomes has been an
important factor leading to practice protocols' primary focus on cost
minimization. HMOs that directly employ physicians have been
particularly active in developing and rigidly implementing standardized
practice protocols, utilizing cheaper nonphysician substitutes in the
production of health care, and using the former as a means of increasing
the use of the latter  (i.e., standardization, fragmentation, and
substitution - sound familiar?). This relationship is based on my
micro-level empirical examination of young physicians' practice patterns
and employment/managed care relations.

Jeff Fellows


 --
From: James Devine
To: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Subject: re: Doug's question
Date: Sunday, December 07, 1997 8:53PM

Jason says: While I concur, the medical industry is in shambles w.r.t.
"productivity."
Have you had a good experience with your HMO lately?

You aren't responding to a quote from me, but I'll answer anyway: I have
a
hard time understanding what "productivity" means for HMOs. Number of
sick
people cured divided by the number of employee-hours hired?

Service industries are notorious for making the measurement of output --
and
thus produtivity -- difficult if not impossible. That's why I would
focus on
goods-producing industries, assuming that if prod. takes off there it
probably does so with services, too, but to a lesser extent because
service
labor is harder to supervise in many cases.

I'm agnostic about whether or not productivity is really coming back in
the
manufacturing industries. Like Doug, I don't have enough info... It's
possible, though, that all this high-tech stuff is finally paying off.
But
who knows?


Jim Devine
[EMAIL PROTECTED]
http://clawww.lmu.edu/1997F/ECON/jdevine.html
Academic version of a Bette Midler song: "you are the hot air beneath my
wings."







RE: HMOs (was re: Doug's question)

1997-12-08 Thread Fellows, Jeffrey

I agree wholeheartedly with Jim's statement that even if health outcomes
could be quantified accurately, the focus would still be on cost
minimization, and hence profit maximization. Jeff


 --
From: James Devine
To: [EMAIL PROTECTED]; Fellows, Jeffrey
Subject: HMOs (was re: Doug's question)
Date: Monday, December 08, 1997 11:27AM

thanks, Jeffrey, for the useful analysis of HMOs and productivity!

The difficulty in measuring and quantifying health outcomes has been an
important factor leading to practice protocols' primary focus on cost
minimization.

I think that even if they could measure output, they wouldn't care about
it. What they care about is total revenue minus total cost (or stated as
a
rate of return). Because HMO revenues are largely fixed per patient once
the deal has been struck, they try to profit by cutting costs.

BTW, in case anyone cares, I agree with Anders' comment on "Doug's
question" and Harry's comment on "dialectics, etc."

in pen-l solidarity,

Jim Devine   [EMAIL PROTECTED] 
http://clawww.lmu.edu/1997F/ECON/jdevine.html
"The only cause of depression is prosperity." -- Clement Juglar.






RE: LITTLE JESSICA

1997-12-01 Thread Fellows, Jeffrey

Hoax, hoax, hoax.
 --
From: Ajit Sinha
To: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Subject: FW: LITTLE JESSICA
Date: Monday, December 01, 1997 12:26AM

Hi ! Everybody,

LITTLE JESSICA MYDEK IS SEVEN YEARS OLD AND IS SUFFERING FROM AN
ACUTE AND VERY RARE CASE OF CEREBRAL CARCINOMA. THIS CONDITION
CAUSES SEVERE MALIGNANT BRAIN TUMORS AND IS A TERMINAL ILLNESS.

THE DOCTORS HAVE GIVEN HER SIX MONTHS TO LIVE. AS PART OF HER DYING
WISH,   SHE WANTED TO START A CHAIN LETTER TO INFORM PEOPLE OF THIS
CONDITION   AND TO SEND PEOPLE THE MESSAGE TO  LIVE LIFE TO THE
FULLEST AND  ENJOY EVERY MOMENT, A CHANCE THAT SHE WILL NEVER
HAVE.  FURTHERMORE, THE AMERICAN CANCER SOCIETY AND SEVERAL
CORPORATE SPONSORS HAVE AGREED TO DONATE THREE CENTS TOWARD
CONTINUING CANCER RESEARCH FOR EVERY NEW PERSON THAT GETS
FORWARDED THIS MESSAGE.

PLEASE GIVE JESSICA AND ALL CANCER VICTIMS A CHANCE.  IF THERE ARE
ANY QUESTIONS, SEND THEM TO THE AMERICAN CANCER SOCIETY AT
[EMAIL PROTECTED]

For every new person you forward this to, the American Cancer
Society will donate three cents toward cancer research.  Just make
the first address   [EMAIL PROTECTED], and then list as many friends and
colleagues as you can. It's for a good cause, so please don't just
delete it.

Thank you.

JSR






RE: BLS Daily Reportcharset=iso-8859-1

1997-11-28 Thread Fellows, Jeffrey

Dave:

First, thank you for posting these reports.
Second, do you know if the CPI is also used as a basis for the IRS'
annual income tax schedule adjustments? If so, it would seem that the
new CPI calculations could have the added impact of increasing the tax
burden on wage earners.

Jeff Fellows
 --
From: Richardson_D
To: Jorgensen_Helene; [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Subject: FW: BLS Daily Report
Date: Friday, November 28, 1997 10:17AM

BLS DAILY REPORT, FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 21, 1997

Initial claims for unemployment insurance benefits rose 20,000 to a
seasonally adjusted 333,000 in the week ended Nov. 15, the Employment
and Training Administration says.  The new claims figure reached its
highest level since Aug. 16 (Daily Labor Report, page D-1)_The
Wall Street Journal (page A2) says analysts discounted the jump since it
came during a week that included Veterans Day.  The government has
trouble seasonally adjusting for weeks that include holidays 

A new survey shows that more than half of major companies are coping
with workforce reductions by using work/family programs to help
remaining employees, the Conference Board reports.  As rounds of layoffs
reduce morale and increase employee stress, officials at the 41 firms
polled said they are looking for new ways to address employee anxiety
and uncertainty over the prospects of continued employment, the board
says.  Flextime schedules, including part-time work, are sometimes used
as an alternative to layoffs (Daily Labor Report, page A-1).

A survey finds that 81 percent of small and medium-sized employers are
having difficulty attracting and retaining qualified employees.
Sixty-nine percent of the 245 employers participating in the survey
released by NovaCare Employee Services, a national employee services
company, said attracting qualified employees was their number one human
resource problem, while 39 percent ranked retaining employees second
.(Daily Labor Report, page A-10).

Employers have, on average, cut staff by 12 percent through various
workforce reduction measures since 1992, according to a survey conducted
by Hewitt Associates.  Workforce reductions are not as common as they
were in the late 1980s and early 1990s, and employers who make
reductions are focusing more on the needs of the surviving workforce and
providing increased levels of support to displaced employees.  Early
retirement windows are typically the first approach employers use in
workforce reduction situations, Hewitt said (Daily Report, page
A-9).

Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan says that Social Security retirement age
should again be raised and the annual cost-of-living adjustment should
be trimmed to ensure the future solvency of the hugh retirement system
.Greenspan made his comments at a meeting of a special Senate Budget
Committee task force on Social Security Many experts have suggested
70 as a retirement age that would accurately reflect the changes in
health and longevity since Social Security was adopted by Congress in
1935.  The annual increase in Social Security benefits is linked to
changes in the federal CPI, which overstates the "true cost of living,"
Greenspan said (Washington Post, page C1; New York Times, page A24).

Manufacturing executives expect growth will moderate somewhat through
January, while constructions executives foresee little change, according
to Dun  Bradstreet's latest monthly survey (Wall Street Journal,
page B11A).

The nation's trade deficit jumped to an 8-month high September, as
exports declined while imports continued to rise strongly, the Commerce
Department reported.  Analysts attributed the growing trade deficit to
the combination of rapid U.S. economic growth, slower growth in Japan
and several other countries, and the rising value of the dollar.  A
number of analysts said that the financial crises in several Asian
nations is too recent to have had much of an impact on U.S. trade.
However, those nations' troubles are expected to widen the deficit in
coming months as they export more to the United States while buying
fewer imports (Washington Post, page A37; New York Times, page C1;
Wall Street Journal, page A2).

European Union leaders met in Luxembourg to confront the continent's
high jobless rates.  Europe has 18 million unemployed.  The unemployment
rate is more than double that of the United States and triple Japan's
.(Wall Street Journal, page A19).






RE: Digital Diploma Millscharset=iso-8859-1

1997-11-26 Thread Fellows, Jeffrey

I am reminded of a letter that appeared in the Chronicle of Higher
Education from a former professor at Washington State University. In the
letter he recounted having had a course videotaped, which was
subsequently replayed by the administration after he had left the
university. Along with the obvious problems of the school replaying his
tele-course, the instructor found it odd that students were using him as
a reference for jobs and law school applications.

The same sort of drive toward the standardization, fragmentation, and
redistribution of production activities is occurring in medical
practice, driven largely by HMOs that directly employ physicians. I will
talk about this at the ASSA meetings in Chicago (sorry, the talk is
scheduled for the afternoon of the last day). I will send a copy of the
paper (after the conference) to anyone who wishes.

In the story Sid presented on the transformation of education
production, an issue arises that is similar to the drive to transform
health care production. That is how to standardize a commodity that,
upon its realization, is contained wholly within the individual
consumer? This problem, in turn leads to a much more interesting
question regarding the ability of capitalist commodity markets to
maintain the veil between commodity purchasers and the social relations
of a commodity's production.  Standardizing a table and its production
seems a relatively easy task. The outcomes are there for all to see and
compare against other tables and table making processes. Since the
commodity education is largely inseparable, and possibly
indistinguishable, from its purchaser, the commodity or commodity
comparisons must be made on the basis of something else, something that
is hopefully observable.

[An aside: I don't subscribe to the view that health care or education
are services, and as such cannot be analyzed in the same way commodities
are. In either case, both produce real changes that exist after the
production process is complete. You just can readily see it. ]

What is of most interest to me is that in education, like it is in
medicine, much of the commodity being produced (education or health
care) is done so with the direct participation of the commodity's
consumers. The commodity market becomes inseparable from the process of
production through the direct experience of the relations of production
of the purchasers. So instead of a consumer going to the store and
comparing cars or shoes largely on the basis of their visible qualities
and relative prices, the consumer of education or health fully
experiences the production process, and in fact is part of the creation
of value and not just its realization in exchange. In the former, we are
unlikely to know the conditions under which the car or shoes were
produced, and we are not supposed to know. The market acts as a veil to
these relations. In education or health care, the market cannot act as a
veil.

In the cases of education and medical care, the standardization of
production processes may enable a continuing fragmentation and
distribution of tasks to less-skilled workers, less-expensive workers
(with the proviso that standardization is exceedingly difficult).
Furthermore, the process (at least in medicine) appears to be proceeding
without reference to quality, since defining quality seems to be like
determining the shape of the wind. However, in capitalists' hands I
believe the march toward standardization will continue without concern
over quality, or more importantly "perceived" quality. But this
objectification of production will necessarily objectify the consumers
of education and medicine as well. It seems to me that the
objectification of consumers, as factors of production wedded to a
standardized production process, is the key to the limit of capitalist
development in education and health care, possibly even its
transformation. It is likely, in my belief, that students and patients
will delegitimize routinized education and health care commodities, and
hence stop paying for them (at least willingly),  because they will
cease to contain use values. I do not have time right now to discuss how
use values are created in these types of production, but I will say that
they are heavily influenced by consumers' perceptions of the emotional,
or the "humaneness," of the production process.

As standardization progresses, the emotional component of the process is
increasingly pushed aside, at least that part which is instrumental in
creating value. For instance, in health care production patients'
perceptions of their provider significantly influence health outcomes;
trust and good feeling increase health outcomes (including functional
status), and lack of trust and poor feelings have negative impacts of
outcomes. If the emotional component is crucial to the perception of
usefulness, its disappearance will lead to a rejection of the commodity.
Perhaps, if such a time comes, consumers of education and health 

Query: Parents-children income relationship

1997-11-14 Thread Fellows, Jeffrey

Anyone have good references on the relationship between the incomes of
children and their parents. Said differently, are their any good
empirical pieces on intergenerational class mobility?

Jeff Fellows
Prevention Effectiveness Fellow
Division of Violence Prevention
NCIPC, CDC
Atlanta, GA





RE: [PEN-L] Re: income racecharset=iso-8859-1

1997-11-05 Thread Fellows, Jeffrey

After further examination of aanz's comments, I put forth the following
elaborations.
 --
From: [EMAIL PROTECTED]


If memory serves me
correctly, IF current felony conviction rates are extended into the
future, a whoppingly big IF, we could end up with between 20 and 25
percent of A-A males who have had a felony conviction by the year 2010
or so. The trend may be subsiding. First, because of an aging
population. Second, the cost of incarceration is become ever more
unsustainable.

From your lips to God's ear.

**Don't take my word for it. The state of California will not be able to
fully implement the 3 strikes law because of the expense ($5.5 billion),
or so says Peter Greenwood of RAND. I don't think Pete Wilson himself is
interested in forking over that much cash. Oregon is in a similar boat
in their prison spending, particularly in its relation to other social
spending, or increasing lack thereof. The Mayors of NYC and Boston have
implied that the recent declines in homicides have been the result of
greater imprisonments and other "get tough" policies. Unfortunately,
data and logic suggest otherwise. First, a presupposition to
incarceration is the perpetration of at least one crime (excluding any
mistakes, railroading, etc.). So saving future crime through past crime
makes little policy sense. 


The household income connection is overblown for a number of reasons.
First, A-A males have always been incarcerated several times more,
proportionally, than whites.

Again it is higher now than ever. I may be wrong, I only suggest you
research the data, not make it up.

**It may be higher, that's not the point. The point is how much higher
must it go before it impacts employment. By the way, IT IS MY JOB TO
RESEARCH AND GENERATE KNOWLEDGE OF THE EXTENT OF IMPRISONMENT AND ITS
IMPACTS ON SOCIETY. My "if memory serves" statement reflects my desire
not to spend a great deal of time, in an already time constrained
schedule, going through the articles in my files and copies of the
_Uniform Crime Statistics_ and _U.S. Correctional Populations_ (Bureau
of Justice Statistics).

Here's the deal, the current prison population is just over 1 million
(1995 data), of which almost half are African American. These are
appalling numbers any way you look at it, so please spare me and the
readers on this list from a recital of the radical economists' litmus
test. Unless, by virtue of being connected to the CDC means must be a
bourgeois mole. Of the 1 million, about 225,000 are in state prisons for
drug offenses and about another 51,737 are in federal prisons. These are
based on most serious offenses. I considered drug offenses because only
because that is the offense that is responsible for most of the prison
population increase. Suppose, as even radical economists are allowed to
do once in a while, all drug offenders are black and we double the
number of drug offense imprisonments. Explain to me how a reduction of
approximately 277,000 people from consideration of any national
population-based analysis makes any observable differences? It seems to
me that in a relatively good week, vis-a-vis unemployment announcements,
we get more new unemployed workers than there are prisoners in jail on
drug charges. If we are more accurate, the number of state prisoners in
jail on drug offenses has risen from 38,900 in 1985 to 225,000 in 1995.
Federal drug-related prisoners in 1985 numbered about 9,500. Now, if we
are talking only African American males, the figures are much  less.

Let's look at it in another way. If we examine correctional data between
1985 and 1995, it indicates the male incarceration rate, per 100,000
population, grew from 246 for whites and 1,559 for blacks, to 461 for
whites and 3,250 for blacks. [insert appropriate radical economist
statements here.] So, it appears that the incarceration rate almost
doubled for white men and slightly more than doubled for black men.
While it is true that a rate growth in one sector may not be uniquely
relevant to a rate or number in another sector, the incarceration rate
growth means that the black male prison population grew from about
210,500 in 1985 to about 510,900 in 1995. So we end up with about
300,000 difference, which we have to then use to explain the growth in
black household incomes. I think Chrysler has laid off more workers than
this since 1985.

For those of you who may not have had the included object, i.e., my
prewritten address, come through, it is:

Jeffrey L. Fellows, Ph.D.
Economist/Prevention Effectiveness Fellow
Division of Violence Prevention
National Center for Injury Prevention and Control, CDC
Atlanta, GA 30341
(770) 488-1529
[EMAIL PROTECTED]

The above statements are not necessarily those of the Centers for
Disease Control and Prevention.

 -
So, any change in income must be explained
examined in the context of the incremental growth in A-A incarceration
rates. Second, imprisonment also impoverishes perpetrators' families
(appr. 60 

RE: [PEN-L] Re: income racecharset=iso-8859-1

1997-11-05 Thread Fellows, Jeffrey

Thanks for the clarification. I am relieved to know that this is not one
of the consequences. Jeff
 --
From: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
To: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Subject: RE: [PEN-L] Re: income  race
Date: Tuesday, November 04, 1997 7:20PM

Whereas African American males have born the brunt of the trend toward
greater incarceration rates in the US, the correlation between rising
incarceration and rising incomes among those "participating" in the
labor market is becoming fantastically overblown. The concern about the
high proportion of the A-A population having experience with the
criminal justice system is important for many reasons. After all,
convicted felons, however trivial (i.e., marihuana possession) the
felony classification, are unable to vote.

That's actually no longer true. After finishing parole a felon can vote.
I
was convicted of felonous tresspassing for the Diablo Canyon power plant
occupation by those opposed to glowing in the dark and felonous
misconduct
on the picket line during the Greyhound strike and I can still vote in
California and the Federal elections. Historically felons were required
to
register to vote only at the courthouse (making it more unlikely) but
now
we get to register just like everybody else.

If memory serves me
correctly, IF current felony conviction rates are extended into the
future, a whoppingly big IF, we could end up with between 20 and 25
percent of A-A males who have had a felony conviction by the year 2010
or so. The trend may be subsiding. First, because of an aging
population. Second, the cost of incarceration is become ever more
unsustainable.

From your lips to God's ear.

The household income connection is overblown for a number of reasons.
First, A-A males have always been incarcerated several times more,
proportionally, than whites.

Again it is higher now than ever. I may be wrong, I only suggest you
research the data, not make it up.

 So, any change in income must be explained
examined in the context of the incremental growth in A-A incarceration
rates. Second, imprisonment also impoverishes perpetrators' families
(appr. 60 percent have jobs immediately prior to imprisonment). The
gender bias in relative wages is also found in the African American
community. Third, the average prison term, excluding life or more
sentences, is 2.6 years. Although A-A males may serve longer terms on
average, the difference is not great enough to significantly impact
employment and earnings data. In addition, since A-A males have always
been subject to some sentencing bias, we would have to analyze the
effects of any incremental changes in average time served on earnings
and employment.  Incarceration may have some effects on earnings, but
my
guess that any positive impact (through reduced measured
participation(?) is trivial and is likely dwarfed by the adverse
effects
of income losses during the incarceration period. Fourth, if segmented
labor markets are more reflective of reality, convicted felons would
likely be further relegated to any peripheral, outsider, secondary,
informal, etc.,etc. , job categories than their nonfelon counterparts.
I
could probably come up with more, but lack the time.

I would suggest that we look toward sectoral changes in employment and
hiring that correspond to preexisting race/gender employment biases,
social spending cuts that force proportionally more African Americans
into the labor market (earnings go up but so do household expenses like
child care), or something else. Why are high income A-A families'
earnings rising too? It could be that this segment of the community is
taking advantage of the current national trend toward greater income
inequality. So, whereas, the highest earnings quintile of the A-A
community is gaining in comparison to all workers, just like high
income
earners overall, the lower four quintiles are also gaining (at least in
appearances) because of increasing hiring trends toward occupational
categories that are proportionally more represented by African
Americans. However, the gains in the lower quintiles are likely to be
over-shadowed by greater costs associated with work-related
expenditures.

Regards,



The opinions expressed may not be those of the CDC.

 --
From: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
To: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Subject: RE: [PEN-L] Re: income  race
Date: Monday, November 03, 1997 6:31PM

But has it not gotten dramatically worse in the last ten years due to
so
called drug crimes? My last read on the situation was an incredible 1
out
of 3 Afro American men are incarcerated, on parole or on probation.

33% is a significant chunk of any population.

I don't claim that I've researched this, we are all just spitting in
the
wind here, but the sentencing has gone up during the same time frame of
Doug's inquiry and no other intervening factor of such breadth came to
my
mind. Industrial work is leaving the country, the last hired first
fired
rule of senority would not increase employment in a shrinking sector
for

RE: [PEN-L] Re: income racecharset=iso-8859-1

1997-11-04 Thread Fellows, Jeffrey

Whereas African American males have born the brunt of the trend toward
greater incarceration rates in the US, the correlation between rising
incarceration and rising incomes among those "participating" in the
labor market is becoming fantastically overblown. The concern about the
high proportion of the A-A population having experience with the
criminal justice system is important for many reasons. After all,
convicted felons, however trivial (i.e., marihuana possession) the
felony classification, are unable to vote. If memory serves me
correctly, IF current felony conviction rates are extended into the
future, a whoppingly big IF, we could end up with between 20 and 25
percent of A-A males who have had a felony conviction by the year 2010
or so. The trend may be subsiding. First, because of an aging
population. Second, the cost of incarceration is become ever more
unsustainable.

The household income connection is overblown for a number of reasons.
First, A-A males have always been incarcerated several times more,
proportionally, than whites. So, any change in income must be explained
examined in the context of the incremental growth in A-A incarceration
rates. Second, imprisonment also impoverishes perpetrators' families
(appr. 60 percent have jobs immediately prior to imprisonment). The
gender bias in relative wages is also found in the African American
community. Third, the average prison term, excluding life or more
sentences, is 2.6 years. Although A-A males may serve longer terms on
average, the difference is not great enough to significantly impact
employment and earnings data. In addition, since A-A males have always
been subject to some sentencing bias, we would have to analyze the
effects of any incremental changes in average time served on earnings
and employment.  Incarceration may have some effects on earnings, but my
guess that any positive impact (through reduced measured
participation(?) is trivial and is likely dwarfed by the adverse effects
of income losses during the incarceration period. Fourth, if segmented
labor markets are more reflective of reality, convicted felons would
likely be further relegated to any peripheral, outsider, secondary,
informal, etc.,etc. , job categories than their nonfelon counterparts. I
could probably come up with more, but lack the time.

I would suggest that we look toward sectoral changes in employment and
hiring that correspond to preexisting race/gender employment biases,
social spending cuts that force proportionally more African Americans
into the labor market (earnings go up but so do household expenses like
child care), or something else. Why are high income A-A families'
earnings rising too? It could be that this segment of the community is
taking advantage of the current national trend toward greater income
inequality. So, whereas, the highest earnings quintile of the A-A
community is gaining in comparison to all workers, just like high income
earners overall, the lower four quintiles are also gaining (at least in
appearances) because of increasing hiring trends toward occupational
categories that are proportionally more represented by African
Americans. However, the gains in the lower quintiles are likely to be
over-shadowed by greater costs associated with work-related
expenditures.

Regards,

 

The opinions expressed may not be those of the CDC.

 --
From: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
To: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Subject: RE: [PEN-L] Re: income  race
Date: Monday, November 03, 1997 6:31PM

But has it not gotten dramatically worse in the last ten years due to so
called drug crimes? My last read on the situation was an incredible 1
out
of 3 Afro American men are incarcerated, on parole or on probation.

33% is a significant chunk of any population.

I don't claim that I've researched this, we are all just spitting in the
wind here, but the sentencing has gone up during the same time frame of
Doug's inquiry and no other intervening factor of such breadth came to
my
mind. Industrial work is leaving the country, the last hired first fired
rule of senority would not increase employment in a shrinking sector for
the bottom of the senority list. I can't for the life of me believe that
industrial jobs could be accountable for such a shift.

If as I suggest these are the gents most likely to be unemployed
clearing
them from you stats would indeed paint a rosier picture of those who are
left in your pool of consideration.

Yes, black males are imprisoned in much greater proportions than
whites.
But this has always been the case. So, while imprisonment rates have
increased for both blacks and whites, and for blacks relative to
whites,
I don't think the portion of the increase in the black incarceration
rate is large enough to make the labor scarcity argument work. In
addition, the average time served over all crimes, excluding life or
more sentences) is about 2.6 years.

What is the date on that 2.6 year statistic? Mandatory sentencing is far
longer than 2.6 for 

RE: income and racecharset=iso-8859-1

1997-11-04 Thread Fellows, Jeffrey

After reading Rakesh's post, I may have sent a post that I hadn't
intended to send (because it was incomplete and I needed time to edit
it)? Thus, my post a few minutes ago must be somewhat repetitive. Rakesh
made points that I agree with. There are race biases in the way crimes
are determined, how people are charged, sentenced, and paroled, as well
as the public perceptions of who criminals are. The list goes on.
Further, I am not claiming any particular knowledge about sectoral
employment or earnings and any race/gender bias in hiring. I only
suggest that these areas are so much more likely to provide that sort of
empirical bang for the theoretical buck than recent changes in
incarceration rates.

A further point that may be of interest. Insofar as crimes are
predominantly white-white and black-black, i.e., whites tend to
perpetrate crimes against other whites, and blacks predominantly
perpetrate against other blacks, any earnings losses associated with
crime-related injuries would likely express themselves in the household
income data. This would be a trivial amount, but nonetheless a
triviality in the wrong direction.

The labor scarcity connection cannot be substantiated, and sounds too
much like neoclassical labor market theory for my comfort.

Jeff
 --
From: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
To: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Subject: income and race
Date: Tuesday, November 04, 1997 12:46AM

Jeffrey Fellows suggested: "the lower [black] quintiles may also be
rising
because of sectoral shifts toward industries and occupations that are
more
highly represented by blacks."

While it seems to me absurd to attempt to infer structural changes in
the
economy based on comparative data on black/white income quintile groups
(esp. since the black absolute and relative increases seem too
insignificant to have justified this much theorising--to say nothing of
the
questionable value of any racialised data), I think JF's hypothesis is
quite provocative--though I don't think the focus is usefully put on
sectors defined by their overrepresentation of blacks as this says
nothing
about what it is about those sectors explains their relatively faster
growth.

One wonders whether the US is going through a similar process as Britain
a
century ago as there is slow growth, if not outright, decline, of the
industries which once formed the basis of economic domination (steel,
autos, shipbuilding, machine tools); perhaps too much capital remained
tied
up in antiquated fixed capital and too little surplus value was produced
to
keep up with continuously growing minimum amount of capital required for
business in spheres with a high organic composition.

Meanwhile the few newer high technology industries in which there is a
high
organic composition such as semiconductors and computer hardware employ
too
few of the  workers released or unabsorbed by the once dominant
traditional
industry.

 There is then growth in industries which a much lower organic
composition
of capital. Not only may these firms may be labor intensive, they may be
unskilled labor-intensive, which may create relative opportunity for
African-American workers whose skills have remained underdeveloped in a
racist country.

Perhaps then the tight labor market is a better indicator than this
comparative black/white data of this structural devolution from an
economy
of advanced industries in which there was a high organic composition of
capital to one in which the most rapid growth--despite a few advanced
high
technology industries-- is in labor intensive, low skill sectors.

I would also like to make a point I made earlier again: the
overrepresentation of blacks among the incarcerated is indeed alarming,
but
this does not mean that race explains why the US has relatively higher
incarcertation rates or how crime is defined or what punishments are
meted
out for which crimes. There may be an interesting class-based critique
of
the nature of the criminal justice system, which can easily be ignored
if
we are simply criticising the system because the sentences received by
black working class or lumpen criminals are harsher than those received
by
their white counterparts. This would be a perfect example of how slaves
jockeying for position in their servitude miss the big picture, but I
haven't read David Garland's Punishment and Modern Society or Jeffrey
Reiman's The Rich Get Richer and The Poor Get Prison.

Rakesh
Grad Student
UC Berkeley







RE: [PEN-L] Re: income race

1997-11-03 Thread Fellows, Jeffrey

Yes, black males are imprisoned in much greater proportions than whites.
But this has always been the case. So, while imprisonment rates have
increased for both blacks and whites, and for blacks relative to whites,
I don't think the portion of the increase in the black incarceration
rate is large enough to make the labor scarcity argument work. In
addition, the average time served over all crimes, excluding life or
more sentences) is about 2.6 years. Not the type of statistics
population trends are built upon. Sectoral shifts in hiring, firing, and
wage payments, and social spending cutbacks, may express themselves
through changes in relative household incomes between and within
racial/ethnic categories much like an aging population would tend to
shift the homicide rate downward. Why all income quintiles are growing
among black households, as Doug noted, implies that blacks at the high
end of the income distribution may be benefitting from the larger trends
in the widening of income distribution (excluding existing wealth), and
the lower quintiles may also be rising because of sectoral shifts toward
industries and occupations that are more highly represented by blacks.
The declingin social safety nets may be pushing proportionally more
minorities into the paid labor market. Of course, increasing earnings
among former social support recipients doesn't mean they are monetarily
better off.

Jeff Fellows

 --
From: Gerald Levy
To: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Subject: [PEN-L] Re: income  race
Date: Sunday, November 02, 1997 4:52PM

Ellen (anzalone/starbird) wrote:

 Is it true that inmates incarcerated in prison are NOT counted as
 households in your data?

To be counted as being employed or unemployed in the US data, one must
first be counted as being part of the labor force. But, the labor force
is
defined in such a way that if you are not "working for pay", then you
must
be "actively seeking paid employment." Since prisoners are not "actively
seeking paid employment", they are not counted as being part of the
labor
force or the unemployed. Aren't bourgeois statistics beautiful?

 The white poor are still with us, but the Black poor are in the
slammer.

Huh? You don't actually believe that a majority of "Black poor are in
the
slammer", do you?

 , the (free) Blacks are (statistically) thriving
 economically under the Reagan-Bush-Clinton administrations.

Huh? In what sense did "(free) Blacks" thrive since 1980?

Jerry





RE: URPE Web page

1997-10-31 Thread Fellows, Jeffrey

Can anyone give me URPE's web page. I have seen it before, but I am
having difficulty finding it again. Since it is also referenced by the
UC-Riverside Econ department's home page, UCR's web address will
suffice. Thanks.

Jeff Fellows





Re: [PEN-L] Re: everything's groovy

1997-10-30 Thread Fellows, Jeffrey

A ponzi scheme, as Tom wrote, might be an accurate conception of the
political drive to privatize social security. Assuming the money stays
in the US, wouldn't a large redirection of SS trust funds away from the
bond market and into the stock market likely reduce bond prices (by
eliminating the decifit-reducing bias of SSTF T-bill absorption) and
increase stock prices, thereby increasing short-term returns in both
financial markets?

Jeff Fellows
 --
From: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
To: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Subject: Re: [PEN-L] Re: everything's groovy
Date: Wednesday, October 29, 1997 6:46PM

Jerry wrote,

Whether the losses are recovered or not by the mutual funds
"investors",
before you consider whether these people are going to pull their $ out
of
the market, you have to consider their alternatives. Given the rates of
interest on savings accounts, what choices do most of these
small-timers
(including  many retired working people) have?  Some of those other
choices (like municipal bonds) might be undesirable for other reasons.

I agree. But the issue isn't just whether "these people pull their money
out
of the market", it's whether these people and others borrow *more* money
to
put it *into* the market. There is considerable choice on that one. A
Ponzi
scheme that doesn't attract new investors is a sad thing to behold.

Regards,

Tom Walker
^^^
knoW Ware Communications
Vancouver, B.C., CANADA
[EMAIL PROTECTED]
(604) 688-8296
^^^
The TimeWork Web: http://www.vcn.bc.ca/timework/





RE: URPE Web sight

1997-10-29 Thread Fellows, Jeffrey

Can anyone tell me URPE's web sight?

Jeff Fellows