Re: NYC uenmployment

1994-08-18 Thread Bugs Bunny

Some anecdotal WS UE:  A few months ago, after a long period of pushing
their analyst staff to extraordinary long hours, Smith Barney added lots of new
staff.  Pressure for higher labor intensity and long hours did not let up, if
anything, it increased.  Last week they laid of 20 in one division.  There is
some evidence that this move was to "weed" out those that resisted or began to
lose the type of "competitive edge" American economic decision makers are
imposing on us.   I believe that their profits are expected to or has fallen
this period, nevertheless it appears that the squeeze will continue and
employment will probably remain relaively flat in the financial service
sector.

In Woodstock '94 I heard little of seeing God, Peace, more Love(SEX/LUST)
and maybe even "seeing" music.  Hopefully, a few of those 20 something FIRE
Salary Slaves and some of those Woodstock Originals FIRE maestros, caught
sight of their CHAINS, and that HORRIBLE behemoth that they are chained too:
capitalism and the culture it spews.
_/\ /\_
\ / \/ {  . .  }\/\ /
 \  / \/   {   }  \/\  /
  \   / \/   `V-V'  \/\   /
   \/ \/  \/\/
INTERNET: [EMAIL PROTECTED]  BITNET: PBALG@CUNYVM
Paul Bartlett, City University of New York



Re: NYC uenmployment

1994-08-18 Thread John Keefe



On Tue, 16 Aug 1994, Doug Henwood wrote:
 
 There is no "Wall Street bust" yet. Profits, until the beginning of this 
 year, were at record levels. But as John Keefe, a banking analyst who I 
 think still subscribes to PEN-L, put it, it was only record profits that 
 were keeping employment steady. Unlike previous WS booms, there was no 
 hiring binge, and there was little spillover into other industries 
 (retail in particular).

Thank you, Doug, for the citation, and yes I am still lurking.

Here are a few more details on the Wall Street employment situation:
In the past few years the Street has kept down its hiring of so-
called "back office" people, that is, the people who process
transactions and do other paper work, while increasing the front 
office -- the "producers" like salespeople and traders.

Part of this suppression of lower-pay jobs has been done through
expanding technology, and doing the paperwork at the "point of
sale." The rest of the absence of growth has come in the form of
outsourcing, or in some cases, most notably Salomon Brothers,
moving the back office out of New York to Tampa, Florida.

It's also interesting to note that several firms have been able
to gain tax concessions from the city, by threatening to move
their operations out of state.

Finally, last week we saw the first layoffs from Wall Street, in
response to the sagging financial markets. (Greenspan giveth and
Greenspan taketh away.) Bond trading is not what it used to be,
and Merrill Lynch, Smith Barney and a few others have made small
cuts to the number of traders.

John Keefe
[EMAIL PROTECTED]
212-475-5580



Re: NYC uenmployment

1994-08-17 Thread JTREACY


Worse, the real estate/Wall Street elite consciously and deliberately
drove the port of New York over to New Jersey, to free up the West Side of
Manahattan for real estate development. This massively increased the cost 
of doing business for small manufacturers - and also greatly increased 
truck traffic across the Geo Washington Bridge, fouling the air, and 
wrecking the pavement. Everything that comes into NYC has to come by 
truck (and into Long Island as well), since we have no freight rail or 
waterway connection to the mainland.

Treacy: The last time I looked, the Bronx was still on the mainland. The trouble 
is that rail connections to Manhattan and the Island come from the
North and not the West. The last time  I was on the Tribouro Bridge, I 
saw a large freight train barreling along over Hell Gate. The 
resistence of the Longshoremen's Union to containerization did not 
help the port either. [EMAIL PROTECTED]  

The NYC unemployment rate only begins to tell the story. Our labor force 
participation rate is about 10 points below the national average (or was, 
last time I checked). If you're not in the LF, of course, you're not 
unemployed.

Doug

Doug Henwood [[EMAIL PROTECTED]]
Left Business Observer
212-874-4020 (voice)
212-874-3137 (fax)


On Mon, 15 Aug 1994, Eban Goodstein wrote:

 
 
 **
 Eban GoodsteinDepartment of Economics
 518-584-5000 (2739)   811 N. Broadway
 fax: 518-584-3023 Saratoga Springs, NY 12866
 [EMAIL PROTECTED]
 
 
 In response to right wing claims about the disastrous state of the
 New York economy, I've been doing a little digging and have come up
 with the following picture: Over the last four years the state has
 risen from fifth to first in the overall unemployment rankings. But
 this trend is driven wholly by the grim employment picture in New
 York City.  Indeed, outside of the five boroughs of New York City,
 the unemployment rate in the state is well below the regional
 average. Thus, for most of the state, job growth issues are clearly
 reflective of regional trends.
 
 Here's the data:
 
   1993 1993 1992 1992 1991 1991 1990 1990
   RATE RANK RATE RANK RATE RANK RATE RANK
 
 New York   7.71  8.52  7.2   3   5.2   5
   NYC 10.2  10.8   8.6   6.8  
   Excluding NYC5.6   5.9   6.0   3.9
 Connecticut6.26  7.54  6.7   5   5.1   6
 Massachusetts  6.94  8.52  9.0   1   6.0   2
 New Jersey 7.42  8.43  6.6   6   5.0   7
 Ohio   6.55  7.25  6.4   7   5.7   3
 Pennsylvania   7.03  7.54  6.9   4   5.4   4
 Rhode Island   7.71  8.91  8.5   2   6.7   1
 Vermont5.47  6.66  6.4   8   5.0   8
 
   Table 1-- State Unemployment Rates, 1990-1993
 
 SOURCE: Employment and Earnings, May Issue (US Dept. of Labor:
 Washington, DC)
 
 
 Does anyone have any ideas of why unemployment is so high in NYC
 right now? The other big Northeast cities: Boston, Philly,
 Pittsburg, Cleveland, all have unemployment rates at or below their
 state average. 
 
 Thanks
 
 Eban
 




Re: NYC uenmployment

1994-08-17 Thread Doug Henwood

Unfortunately this session, which I tried to organize, has collapsed.

You can reach Sean, who will be at the conference, at 516-223-8002.

Doug

Doug Henwood [[EMAIL PROTECTED]]
Left Business Observer
212-874-4020 (voice)
212-874-3137 (fax)


On Tue, 16 Aug 1994, Eban Goodstein wrote:

 I notice at the upcoming URPE conference there is a thing called the
 Economists working group on Jobs in NYC, listing Sean Gervasi, Sybil Wong
 and Renee Toback. Do you know how I might contact any of these folks?
 
 Thanks,
 
 eban
 
 
 
 
 
 In Message Tue, 16 Aug 1994 10:26:06 -0700,
   Doug Henwood [EMAIL PROTECTED] writes:
 
 While the NYC unemployment rate in the late 1980s wasn't out of line with 
 other cities, I believe the LFPR and EPR were, but I'd have to check on that.
 
 There is no "Wall Street bust" yet. Profits, until the beginning of this 
 year, were at record levels. But as John Keefe, a banking analyst who I 
 think still subscribes to PEN-L, put it, it was only record profits that 
 were keeping employment steady. Unlike previous WS booms, there was no 
 hiring binge, and there was little spillover into other industries 
 (retail in particular). The real estate glut also meant no new 
 construction, which depressed employment in that industry. Also, media 
 and other elite services were hit very hard by the 1989-92 slump - and 
 actually the slump began locally after the 1987 stock market crash. 
 Recovery has since been slow and nearly invisible, with no contribution 
 from FIRE, the leading sector.
 
 Speaking of FIRE, the Giuliani administration offers this as their 
 economic development strategy: WS will soon hire, which will lead to a 
 reduction in office vacancies, which will lead to an upturn in 
 construction. That, and downsizing and privatization in government, will 
 lead to a return to prosperity.
 
 The FIRE boom did drive up costs, but the real estate glut helped keep 
 them down. Meanwhile, social decay and the lack of a skilled labor force 
 make it more difficult to do business here. Giuliani's cutbacks will only 
 worsen this situation.
 
 Doug
 
 Doug Henwood [[EMAIL PROTECTED]]
 Left Business Observer
 212-874-4020 (voice)
 212-874-3137 (fax)
 
 
 On Tue, 16 Aug 1994, Eban Goodstein wrote:
 
  Doug--
  
 Thanks for getting back to me. Do you have any insights as to why things
  are so bad right now? Up through 1990 the NYC unemploment rate was not too
  far out of line for big cities in the Northeast, and about 2-3 points above
  the rest of the state. Now it is 4 points higher than other big cities, and
  5 points higher than the rest of the state.
  
 Is it a Wall Street bust, with the other trends you talked about now
  showing up? If so is the bust "endogenous" in the sense that the boom drove
  up costs for F.I.R.E industries and they are now bailing out (and will come
  back when costs settle down)? Or is it a shift in technology, allowing more
  and more F.I.R.E firms to flee a sinking ship?
  
 Any thoughts would be helpful...
  
  eban
  
  
  **
  Eban GoodsteinDepartment of Economics
  518-584-5000 (2739)   811 N. Broadway
  fax: 518-584-3023 Saratoga Springs, NY 12866
  [EMAIL PROTECTED]
  
  
 
 
 
 **
 Eban GoodsteinDepartment of Economics
 518-584-5000 (2739)   811 N. Broadway
 fax: 518-584-3023 Saratoga Springs, NY 12866
 [EMAIL PROTECTED]
 
 
 



Re: NYC uenmployment

1994-08-17 Thread JTREACY

The FIRE boom did drive up costs, but the real estate glut helped keep 
them down. Meanwhile, social decay and the lack of a skilled labor force 
make it more difficult to do business here. Giuliani's cutbacks will only 
worsen this situation.

Treacy: You have hit the nail on the head here!  The NYC public schools had
large vocational programs in woodworking for many years after they had
no such industry in the city. [EMAIL PROTECTED] 
Doug

Doug Henwood [[EMAIL PROTECTED]]
Left Business Observer
212-874-4020 (voice)
212-874-3137 (fax)


On Tue, 16 Aug 1994, Eban Goodstein wrote:

 Doug--
 
Thanks for getting back to me. Do you have any insights as to why things
 are so bad right now? Up through 1990 the NYC unemploment rate was not too
 far out of line for big cities in the Northeast, and about 2-3 points above
 the rest of the state. Now it is 4 points higher than other big cities, and
 5 points higher than the rest of the state.
 
Is it a Wall Street bust, with the other trends you talked about now
 showing up? If so is the bust "endogenous" in the sense that the boom drove
 up costs for F.I.R.E industries and they are now bailing out (and will come
 back when costs settle down)? Or is it a shift in technology, allowing more
 and more F.I.R.E firms to flee a sinking ship?
 
Any thoughts would be helpful...
 
 eban
 
 
 **
 Eban GoodsteinDepartment of Economics
 518-584-5000 (2739)   811 N. Broadway
 fax: 518-584-3023 Saratoga Springs, NY 12866
 [EMAIL PROTECTED]
 
 
 




Re: NYC uenmployment

1994-08-16 Thread Doug Henwood

It's hardly a comfort that NY state unemployment is driven by NYC's, 
since about half of NYSers live in NYC. 

One reason NYC unemployment is so high is because of the profoundly
distorted industrial structure - i.e., heavy overrepresentation of FIRE
(finance, insurance, real estate) and elite business services
(advertising, media, lawyering, and other hot-air industries). For
decades, NYC governments, led by liberal Democrats, have quite consciously
driven manufacturing out of town - unsightly, lowers property values, less
rent per sq ft. Governors, from Rockefeller (creator of the job-killing
Urban Development Corporation) to Cuomo (who has used the UDC to clear out
industrial neighborhoods like Long Island City to make way for politically
connected financiers and developers, like the Citicorp tower and Lazard
Realty's - Lazard being Felix Rohatyn's firm - disastrous Thompson Place
project). This makes for dismal employment prospects for the masses. And
since about a quarter of the personal income earned in NYC is hauled out
by suburbanites, we have a very low level of retail sales here, which
depresses retail employment below national averages. 

Worse, the real estate/Wall Street elite consciously and deliberately
drove the port of New York over to New Jersey, to free up the West Side of
Manahattan for real estate development. This massively increased the cost 
of doing business for small manufacturers - and also greatly increased 
truck traffic across the Geo Washington Bridge, fouling the air, and 
wrecking the pavement. Everything that comes into NYC has to come by 
truck (and into Long Island as well), since we have no freight rail or 
waterway connection to the mainland.

The NYC unemployment rate only begins to tell the story. Our labor force 
participation rate is about 10 points below the national average (or was, 
last time I checked). If you're not in the LF, of course, you're not 
unemployed.

Doug

Doug Henwood [[EMAIL PROTECTED]]
Left Business Observer
212-874-4020 (voice)
212-874-3137 (fax)


On Mon, 15 Aug 1994, Eban Goodstein wrote:

 
 
 **
 Eban GoodsteinDepartment of Economics
 518-584-5000 (2739)   811 N. Broadway
 fax: 518-584-3023 Saratoga Springs, NY 12866
 [EMAIL PROTECTED]
 
 
 In response to right wing claims about the disastrous state of the
 New York economy, I've been doing a little digging and have come up
 with the following picture: Over the last four years the state has
 risen from fifth to first in the overall unemployment rankings. But
 this trend is driven wholly by the grim employment picture in New
 York City.  Indeed, outside of the five boroughs of New York City,
 the unemployment rate in the state is well below the regional
 average. Thus, for most of the state, job growth issues are clearly
 reflective of regional trends.
 
 Here's the data:
 
   1993 1993 1992 1992 1991 1991 1990 1990
   RATE RANK RATE RANK RATE RANK RATE RANK
 
 New York   7.71  8.52  7.2   3   5.2   5
   NYC 10.2  10.8   8.6   6.8  
   Excluding NYC5.6   5.9   6.0   3.9
 Connecticut6.26  7.54  6.7   5   5.1   6
 Massachusetts  6.94  8.52  9.0   1   6.0   2
 New Jersey 7.42  8.43  6.6   6   5.0   7
 Ohio   6.55  7.25  6.4   7   5.7   3
 Pennsylvania   7.03  7.54  6.9   4   5.4   4
 Rhode Island   7.71  8.91  8.5   2   6.7   1
 Vermont5.47  6.66  6.4   8   5.0   8
 
   Table 1-- State Unemployment Rates, 1990-1993
 
 SOURCE: Employment and Earnings, May Issue (US Dept. of Labor:
 Washington, DC)
 
 
 Does anyone have any ideas of why unemployment is so high in NYC
 right now? The other big Northeast cities: Boston, Philly,
 Pittsburg, Cleveland, all have unemployment rates at or below their
 state average. 
 
 Thanks
 
 Eban
 



Re: NYC uenmployment

1994-08-16 Thread Eban Goodstein

Doug--

   Thanks for getting back to me. Do you have any insights as to why things
are so bad right now? Up through 1990 the NYC unemploment rate was not too
far out of line for big cities in the Northeast, and about 2-3 points above
the rest of the state. Now it is 4 points higher than other big cities, and
5 points higher than the rest of the state.

   Is it a Wall Street bust, with the other trends you talked about now
showing up? If so is the bust "endogenous" in the sense that the boom drove
up costs for F.I.R.E industries and they are now bailing out (and will come
back when costs settle down)? Or is it a shift in technology, allowing more
and more F.I.R.E firms to flee a sinking ship?

   Any thoughts would be helpful...

eban


**
Eban GoodsteinDepartment of Economics
518-584-5000 (2739)   811 N. Broadway
fax: 518-584-3023 Saratoga Springs, NY 12866
[EMAIL PROTECTED]





Re: NYC uenmployment

1994-08-16 Thread Doug Henwood

While the NYC unemployment rate in the late 1980s wasn't out of line with 
other cities, I believe the LFPR and EPR were, but I'd have to check on that.

There is no "Wall Street bust" yet. Profits, until the beginning of this 
year, were at record levels. But as John Keefe, a banking analyst who I 
think still subscribes to PEN-L, put it, it was only record profits that 
were keeping employment steady. Unlike previous WS booms, there was no 
hiring binge, and there was little spillover into other industries 
(retail in particular). The real estate glut also meant no new 
construction, which depressed employment in that industry. Also, media 
and other elite services were hit very hard by the 1989-92 slump - and 
actually the slump began locally after the 1987 stock market crash. 
Recovery has since been slow and nearly invisible, with no contribution 
from FIRE, the leading sector.

Speaking of FIRE, the Giuliani administration offers this as their 
economic development strategy: WS will soon hire, which will lead to a 
reduction in office vacancies, which will lead to an upturn in 
construction. That, and downsizing and privatization in government, will 
lead to a return to prosperity.

The FIRE boom did drive up costs, but the real estate glut helped keep 
them down. Meanwhile, social decay and the lack of a skilled labor force 
make it more difficult to do business here. Giuliani's cutbacks will only 
worsen this situation.

Doug

Doug Henwood [[EMAIL PROTECTED]]
Left Business Observer
212-874-4020 (voice)
212-874-3137 (fax)


On Tue, 16 Aug 1994, Eban Goodstein wrote:

 Doug--
 
Thanks for getting back to me. Do you have any insights as to why things
 are so bad right now? Up through 1990 the NYC unemploment rate was not too
 far out of line for big cities in the Northeast, and about 2-3 points above
 the rest of the state. Now it is 4 points higher than other big cities, and
 5 points higher than the rest of the state.
 
Is it a Wall Street bust, with the other trends you talked about now
 showing up? If so is the bust "endogenous" in the sense that the boom drove
 up costs for F.I.R.E industries and they are now bailing out (and will come
 back when costs settle down)? Or is it a shift in technology, allowing more
 and more F.I.R.E firms to flee a sinking ship?
 
Any thoughts would be helpful...
 
 eban
 
 
 **
 Eban GoodsteinDepartment of Economics
 518-584-5000 (2739)   811 N. Broadway
 fax: 518-584-3023 Saratoga Springs, NY 12866
 [EMAIL PROTECTED]