Re: NYC uenmployment
Some anecdotal WS UE: A few months ago, after a long period of pushing their analyst staff to extraordinary long hours, Smith Barney added lots of new staff. Pressure for higher labor intensity and long hours did not let up, if anything, it increased. Last week they laid of 20 in one division. There is some evidence that this move was to "weed" out those that resisted or began to lose the type of "competitive edge" American economic decision makers are imposing on us. I believe that their profits are expected to or has fallen this period, nevertheless it appears that the squeeze will continue and employment will probably remain relaively flat in the financial service sector. In Woodstock '94 I heard little of seeing God, Peace, more Love(SEX/LUST) and maybe even "seeing" music. Hopefully, a few of those 20 something FIRE Salary Slaves and some of those Woodstock Originals FIRE maestros, caught sight of their CHAINS, and that HORRIBLE behemoth that they are chained too: capitalism and the culture it spews. _/\ /\_ \ / \/ { . . }\/\ / \ / \/ { } \/\ / \ / \/ `V-V' \/\ / \/ \/ \/\/ INTERNET: [EMAIL PROTECTED] BITNET: PBALG@CUNYVM Paul Bartlett, City University of New York
Re: NYC uenmployment
On Tue, 16 Aug 1994, Doug Henwood wrote: There is no "Wall Street bust" yet. Profits, until the beginning of this year, were at record levels. But as John Keefe, a banking analyst who I think still subscribes to PEN-L, put it, it was only record profits that were keeping employment steady. Unlike previous WS booms, there was no hiring binge, and there was little spillover into other industries (retail in particular). Thank you, Doug, for the citation, and yes I am still lurking. Here are a few more details on the Wall Street employment situation: In the past few years the Street has kept down its hiring of so- called "back office" people, that is, the people who process transactions and do other paper work, while increasing the front office -- the "producers" like salespeople and traders. Part of this suppression of lower-pay jobs has been done through expanding technology, and doing the paperwork at the "point of sale." The rest of the absence of growth has come in the form of outsourcing, or in some cases, most notably Salomon Brothers, moving the back office out of New York to Tampa, Florida. It's also interesting to note that several firms have been able to gain tax concessions from the city, by threatening to move their operations out of state. Finally, last week we saw the first layoffs from Wall Street, in response to the sagging financial markets. (Greenspan giveth and Greenspan taketh away.) Bond trading is not what it used to be, and Merrill Lynch, Smith Barney and a few others have made small cuts to the number of traders. John Keefe [EMAIL PROTECTED] 212-475-5580
Re: NYC uenmployment
Worse, the real estate/Wall Street elite consciously and deliberately drove the port of New York over to New Jersey, to free up the West Side of Manahattan for real estate development. This massively increased the cost of doing business for small manufacturers - and also greatly increased truck traffic across the Geo Washington Bridge, fouling the air, and wrecking the pavement. Everything that comes into NYC has to come by truck (and into Long Island as well), since we have no freight rail or waterway connection to the mainland. Treacy: The last time I looked, the Bronx was still on the mainland. The trouble is that rail connections to Manhattan and the Island come from the North and not the West. The last time I was on the Tribouro Bridge, I saw a large freight train barreling along over Hell Gate. The resistence of the Longshoremen's Union to containerization did not help the port either. [EMAIL PROTECTED] The NYC unemployment rate only begins to tell the story. Our labor force participation rate is about 10 points below the national average (or was, last time I checked). If you're not in the LF, of course, you're not unemployed. Doug Doug Henwood [[EMAIL PROTECTED]] Left Business Observer 212-874-4020 (voice) 212-874-3137 (fax) On Mon, 15 Aug 1994, Eban Goodstein wrote: ** Eban GoodsteinDepartment of Economics 518-584-5000 (2739) 811 N. Broadway fax: 518-584-3023 Saratoga Springs, NY 12866 [EMAIL PROTECTED] In response to right wing claims about the disastrous state of the New York economy, I've been doing a little digging and have come up with the following picture: Over the last four years the state has risen from fifth to first in the overall unemployment rankings. But this trend is driven wholly by the grim employment picture in New York City. Indeed, outside of the five boroughs of New York City, the unemployment rate in the state is well below the regional average. Thus, for most of the state, job growth issues are clearly reflective of regional trends. Here's the data: 1993 1993 1992 1992 1991 1991 1990 1990 RATE RANK RATE RANK RATE RANK RATE RANK New York 7.71 8.52 7.2 3 5.2 5 NYC 10.2 10.8 8.6 6.8 Excluding NYC5.6 5.9 6.0 3.9 Connecticut6.26 7.54 6.7 5 5.1 6 Massachusetts 6.94 8.52 9.0 1 6.0 2 New Jersey 7.42 8.43 6.6 6 5.0 7 Ohio 6.55 7.25 6.4 7 5.7 3 Pennsylvania 7.03 7.54 6.9 4 5.4 4 Rhode Island 7.71 8.91 8.5 2 6.7 1 Vermont5.47 6.66 6.4 8 5.0 8 Table 1-- State Unemployment Rates, 1990-1993 SOURCE: Employment and Earnings, May Issue (US Dept. of Labor: Washington, DC) Does anyone have any ideas of why unemployment is so high in NYC right now? The other big Northeast cities: Boston, Philly, Pittsburg, Cleveland, all have unemployment rates at or below their state average. Thanks Eban
Re: NYC uenmployment
Unfortunately this session, which I tried to organize, has collapsed. You can reach Sean, who will be at the conference, at 516-223-8002. Doug Doug Henwood [[EMAIL PROTECTED]] Left Business Observer 212-874-4020 (voice) 212-874-3137 (fax) On Tue, 16 Aug 1994, Eban Goodstein wrote: I notice at the upcoming URPE conference there is a thing called the Economists working group on Jobs in NYC, listing Sean Gervasi, Sybil Wong and Renee Toback. Do you know how I might contact any of these folks? Thanks, eban In Message Tue, 16 Aug 1994 10:26:06 -0700, Doug Henwood [EMAIL PROTECTED] writes: While the NYC unemployment rate in the late 1980s wasn't out of line with other cities, I believe the LFPR and EPR were, but I'd have to check on that. There is no "Wall Street bust" yet. Profits, until the beginning of this year, were at record levels. But as John Keefe, a banking analyst who I think still subscribes to PEN-L, put it, it was only record profits that were keeping employment steady. Unlike previous WS booms, there was no hiring binge, and there was little spillover into other industries (retail in particular). The real estate glut also meant no new construction, which depressed employment in that industry. Also, media and other elite services were hit very hard by the 1989-92 slump - and actually the slump began locally after the 1987 stock market crash. Recovery has since been slow and nearly invisible, with no contribution from FIRE, the leading sector. Speaking of FIRE, the Giuliani administration offers this as their economic development strategy: WS will soon hire, which will lead to a reduction in office vacancies, which will lead to an upturn in construction. That, and downsizing and privatization in government, will lead to a return to prosperity. The FIRE boom did drive up costs, but the real estate glut helped keep them down. Meanwhile, social decay and the lack of a skilled labor force make it more difficult to do business here. Giuliani's cutbacks will only worsen this situation. Doug Doug Henwood [[EMAIL PROTECTED]] Left Business Observer 212-874-4020 (voice) 212-874-3137 (fax) On Tue, 16 Aug 1994, Eban Goodstein wrote: Doug-- Thanks for getting back to me. Do you have any insights as to why things are so bad right now? Up through 1990 the NYC unemploment rate was not too far out of line for big cities in the Northeast, and about 2-3 points above the rest of the state. Now it is 4 points higher than other big cities, and 5 points higher than the rest of the state. Is it a Wall Street bust, with the other trends you talked about now showing up? If so is the bust "endogenous" in the sense that the boom drove up costs for F.I.R.E industries and they are now bailing out (and will come back when costs settle down)? Or is it a shift in technology, allowing more and more F.I.R.E firms to flee a sinking ship? Any thoughts would be helpful... eban ** Eban GoodsteinDepartment of Economics 518-584-5000 (2739) 811 N. Broadway fax: 518-584-3023 Saratoga Springs, NY 12866 [EMAIL PROTECTED] ** Eban GoodsteinDepartment of Economics 518-584-5000 (2739) 811 N. Broadway fax: 518-584-3023 Saratoga Springs, NY 12866 [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Re: NYC uenmployment
The FIRE boom did drive up costs, but the real estate glut helped keep them down. Meanwhile, social decay and the lack of a skilled labor force make it more difficult to do business here. Giuliani's cutbacks will only worsen this situation. Treacy: You have hit the nail on the head here! The NYC public schools had large vocational programs in woodworking for many years after they had no such industry in the city. [EMAIL PROTECTED] Doug Doug Henwood [[EMAIL PROTECTED]] Left Business Observer 212-874-4020 (voice) 212-874-3137 (fax) On Tue, 16 Aug 1994, Eban Goodstein wrote: Doug-- Thanks for getting back to me. Do you have any insights as to why things are so bad right now? Up through 1990 the NYC unemploment rate was not too far out of line for big cities in the Northeast, and about 2-3 points above the rest of the state. Now it is 4 points higher than other big cities, and 5 points higher than the rest of the state. Is it a Wall Street bust, with the other trends you talked about now showing up? If so is the bust "endogenous" in the sense that the boom drove up costs for F.I.R.E industries and they are now bailing out (and will come back when costs settle down)? Or is it a shift in technology, allowing more and more F.I.R.E firms to flee a sinking ship? Any thoughts would be helpful... eban ** Eban GoodsteinDepartment of Economics 518-584-5000 (2739) 811 N. Broadway fax: 518-584-3023 Saratoga Springs, NY 12866 [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Re: NYC uenmployment
It's hardly a comfort that NY state unemployment is driven by NYC's, since about half of NYSers live in NYC. One reason NYC unemployment is so high is because of the profoundly distorted industrial structure - i.e., heavy overrepresentation of FIRE (finance, insurance, real estate) and elite business services (advertising, media, lawyering, and other hot-air industries). For decades, NYC governments, led by liberal Democrats, have quite consciously driven manufacturing out of town - unsightly, lowers property values, less rent per sq ft. Governors, from Rockefeller (creator of the job-killing Urban Development Corporation) to Cuomo (who has used the UDC to clear out industrial neighborhoods like Long Island City to make way for politically connected financiers and developers, like the Citicorp tower and Lazard Realty's - Lazard being Felix Rohatyn's firm - disastrous Thompson Place project). This makes for dismal employment prospects for the masses. And since about a quarter of the personal income earned in NYC is hauled out by suburbanites, we have a very low level of retail sales here, which depresses retail employment below national averages. Worse, the real estate/Wall Street elite consciously and deliberately drove the port of New York over to New Jersey, to free up the West Side of Manahattan for real estate development. This massively increased the cost of doing business for small manufacturers - and also greatly increased truck traffic across the Geo Washington Bridge, fouling the air, and wrecking the pavement. Everything that comes into NYC has to come by truck (and into Long Island as well), since we have no freight rail or waterway connection to the mainland. The NYC unemployment rate only begins to tell the story. Our labor force participation rate is about 10 points below the national average (or was, last time I checked). If you're not in the LF, of course, you're not unemployed. Doug Doug Henwood [[EMAIL PROTECTED]] Left Business Observer 212-874-4020 (voice) 212-874-3137 (fax) On Mon, 15 Aug 1994, Eban Goodstein wrote: ** Eban GoodsteinDepartment of Economics 518-584-5000 (2739) 811 N. Broadway fax: 518-584-3023 Saratoga Springs, NY 12866 [EMAIL PROTECTED] In response to right wing claims about the disastrous state of the New York economy, I've been doing a little digging and have come up with the following picture: Over the last four years the state has risen from fifth to first in the overall unemployment rankings. But this trend is driven wholly by the grim employment picture in New York City. Indeed, outside of the five boroughs of New York City, the unemployment rate in the state is well below the regional average. Thus, for most of the state, job growth issues are clearly reflective of regional trends. Here's the data: 1993 1993 1992 1992 1991 1991 1990 1990 RATE RANK RATE RANK RATE RANK RATE RANK New York 7.71 8.52 7.2 3 5.2 5 NYC 10.2 10.8 8.6 6.8 Excluding NYC5.6 5.9 6.0 3.9 Connecticut6.26 7.54 6.7 5 5.1 6 Massachusetts 6.94 8.52 9.0 1 6.0 2 New Jersey 7.42 8.43 6.6 6 5.0 7 Ohio 6.55 7.25 6.4 7 5.7 3 Pennsylvania 7.03 7.54 6.9 4 5.4 4 Rhode Island 7.71 8.91 8.5 2 6.7 1 Vermont5.47 6.66 6.4 8 5.0 8 Table 1-- State Unemployment Rates, 1990-1993 SOURCE: Employment and Earnings, May Issue (US Dept. of Labor: Washington, DC) Does anyone have any ideas of why unemployment is so high in NYC right now? The other big Northeast cities: Boston, Philly, Pittsburg, Cleveland, all have unemployment rates at or below their state average. Thanks Eban
Re: NYC uenmployment
Doug-- Thanks for getting back to me. Do you have any insights as to why things are so bad right now? Up through 1990 the NYC unemploment rate was not too far out of line for big cities in the Northeast, and about 2-3 points above the rest of the state. Now it is 4 points higher than other big cities, and 5 points higher than the rest of the state. Is it a Wall Street bust, with the other trends you talked about now showing up? If so is the bust "endogenous" in the sense that the boom drove up costs for F.I.R.E industries and they are now bailing out (and will come back when costs settle down)? Or is it a shift in technology, allowing more and more F.I.R.E firms to flee a sinking ship? Any thoughts would be helpful... eban ** Eban GoodsteinDepartment of Economics 518-584-5000 (2739) 811 N. Broadway fax: 518-584-3023 Saratoga Springs, NY 12866 [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Re: NYC uenmployment
While the NYC unemployment rate in the late 1980s wasn't out of line with other cities, I believe the LFPR and EPR were, but I'd have to check on that. There is no "Wall Street bust" yet. Profits, until the beginning of this year, were at record levels. But as John Keefe, a banking analyst who I think still subscribes to PEN-L, put it, it was only record profits that were keeping employment steady. Unlike previous WS booms, there was no hiring binge, and there was little spillover into other industries (retail in particular). The real estate glut also meant no new construction, which depressed employment in that industry. Also, media and other elite services were hit very hard by the 1989-92 slump - and actually the slump began locally after the 1987 stock market crash. Recovery has since been slow and nearly invisible, with no contribution from FIRE, the leading sector. Speaking of FIRE, the Giuliani administration offers this as their economic development strategy: WS will soon hire, which will lead to a reduction in office vacancies, which will lead to an upturn in construction. That, and downsizing and privatization in government, will lead to a return to prosperity. The FIRE boom did drive up costs, but the real estate glut helped keep them down. Meanwhile, social decay and the lack of a skilled labor force make it more difficult to do business here. Giuliani's cutbacks will only worsen this situation. Doug Doug Henwood [[EMAIL PROTECTED]] Left Business Observer 212-874-4020 (voice) 212-874-3137 (fax) On Tue, 16 Aug 1994, Eban Goodstein wrote: Doug-- Thanks for getting back to me. Do you have any insights as to why things are so bad right now? Up through 1990 the NYC unemploment rate was not too far out of line for big cities in the Northeast, and about 2-3 points above the rest of the state. Now it is 4 points higher than other big cities, and 5 points higher than the rest of the state. Is it a Wall Street bust, with the other trends you talked about now showing up? If so is the bust "endogenous" in the sense that the boom drove up costs for F.I.R.E industries and they are now bailing out (and will come back when costs settle down)? Or is it a shift in technology, allowing more and more F.I.R.E firms to flee a sinking ship? Any thoughts would be helpful... eban ** Eban GoodsteinDepartment of Economics 518-584-5000 (2739) 811 N. Broadway fax: 518-584-3023 Saratoga Springs, NY 12866 [EMAIL PROTECTED]