Re: [singularity] Getting ready for takeoff
Eugen Leitl wrote: > On Tue, Jun 12, 2007 at 11:20:13PM -0400, Alan Grimes wrote: >>> I'm mostly interested in online harware which can be easily 0wn3d >>> for bootstrap purposes. >> d00d, if you (or I) knew how to program, your hardware needs would be >> embarasingly pathetic. =P > My programming skills are a bit rusty, but I come by. But you should > go out more, and see which pathetic performance you get from a so-called > supercomputer if you want to crunch an MD trajectory of few 100 ns of a > few million atoms, and mostly water at that. Nevermind running a spiking > neuronal model of a few billion neurons, or so. Only someone smoking pattern identity theory would even consider contemplating that as a path towards singularity. The type of system you suggest would be so vastly outclassed by a direct implementation of intelligence that it would be considered absurdly impractical for anything other than computational neuroscience. What you suggest is like proposing to implement a computer with a capacity and architecture similar to today's comodity desktop with vacuum tubes. -- such a machine would be the size of a small city and consume ten times as much power. http://www.jj-electronic.sk/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=15&Itemid=10 or perhaps even: http://www.emissionlabs.com/datasheets/EML20B.htm ;) When I'm much less tired, I'll need to get around to explaining exactly why, if done at all, intelligence is a supremely tractable problem. =) -- Opera: Sing it loud! :o( )>-< - This list is sponsored by AGIRI: http://www.agiri.org/email To unsubscribe or change your options, please go to: http://v2.listbox.com/member/?member_id=4007604&user_secret=7d7fb4d8
Re: [singularity] Getting ready for takeoff
If you have "strong", Drexler-like nanotech - i.e., assemblers and disasemblers - this scare of upcoming shortage of resources becomes moot, and the need of "ephemeralization" as you call it also tends to disappear. Given strong nanotech it would be for instance very cheap to gather resources elsewhere in the Solar System - asteroid mining seems specially promising. Indeed, even exploration of untapped resources here on Earth, like the possibility ocean mining that you mention, would likely increase available resources by an order of magnitude or so - and that likely requires just "weak" nanotech. (Which I call "materials science on steroids". :) Personally my attitude toward the cyclical alerts of "OMG! This or that resource is running short! The world is doomed! We are all gonna die!" tends to be skeptical. Basically because this has happened several times in history and what usually happens is, once this or that resource gets more expensive, the pressure for finding alternatives also increases - and so far they were found. On 6/13/07, Charles D Hixson <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: (...) Unless there are some replacements for certain rare elements...probably not. Ephemeralization is about to become NECESSARY, as the pool of available material resources is shrinking FAST!! (This statement is based on one article, but I found it utterly convincing, as I was expecting that this result would be discovered as soon as someone looked.) So I think the next necessary area of development is MEMs and nano-tech. Assemblers and disassemblers are going to be needed within 20 years. For some elements even sooner. Screens will need to start shrinking rather than growing...plausibly being worn as glasses are now until a direct neural feed becomes available. One good place to start might be solar powered desalinization...and then material recovery from the brine. That's one's difficult, as there's already lots of competition. OTOH, there's an *immense* market if you can get the price down. - This list is sponsored by AGIRI: http://www.agiri.org/email To unsubscribe or change your options, please go to: http://v2.listbox.com/member/?&; - This list is sponsored by AGIRI: http://www.agiri.org/email To unsubscribe or change your options, please go to: http://v2.listbox.com/member/?member_id=4007604&user_secret=7d7fb4d8
Re: [singularity] Getting ready for takeoff
Lúcio de Souza Coelho wrote: On 6/12/07, Mike Tintner <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: (...) But that might be an overly bleak interpretation. Another way to look at the rapid uptake of computers in the BRICs is an example of the astonishing possibilities for catch-up that technology offers the developing world. Russia is a special case, but Brazil, India and China have spent most of the last century or two in a state of development hopelessly far behind the industrialized masters of the universe. Today, they are racing forward, and it seems likely that the more citizens they have sitting in front of LCD monitors, the more quickly they will bridge what gaps remain. (...) A minor correction of sorts: as a Brazilian, I would say that "quaint" CRT monitors are still the norm here. :) As you may imagine, low-end equipment has an edge in a market largely composed by poorer folks. However, it is true that LCD adoption has been growing at a breathtaking speed even here, and maybe in a couple of years or so CRTs will be history in this country too. - This list is sponsored by AGIRI: http://www.agiri.org/email To unsubscribe or change your options, please go to: http://v2.listbox.com/member/?&; Unless there are some replacements for certain rare elements...probably not. Ephemeralization is about to become NECESSARY, as the pool of available material resources is shrinking FAST!! (This statement is based on one article, but I found it utterly convincing, as I was expecting that this result would be discovered as soon as someone looked.) So I think the next necessary area of development is MEMs and nano-tech. Assemblers and disassemblers are going to be needed within 20 years. For some elements even sooner. Screens will need to start shrinking rather than growing...plausibly being worn as glasses are now until a direct neural feed becomes available. One good place to start might be solar powered desalinization...and then material recovery from the brine. That's one's difficult, as there's already lots of competition. OTOH, there's an *immense* market if you can get the price down. - This list is sponsored by AGIRI: http://www.agiri.org/email To unsubscribe or change your options, please go to: http://v2.listbox.com/member/?member_id=4007604&user_secret=7d7fb4d8
Re: [singularity] Getting ready for takeoff
On Tue, Jun 12, 2007 at 11:20:13PM -0400, Alan Grimes wrote: > > I'm mostly interested in online harware which can be easily 0wn3d > > for bootstrap purposes. > > d00d, if you (or I) knew how to program, your hardware needs would be > embarasingly pathetic. =P My programming skills are a bit rusty, but I come by. But you should go out more, and see which pathetic performance you get from a so-called supercomputer if you want to crunch an MD trajectory of few 100 ns of a few million atoms, and mostly water at that. Nevermind running a spiking neuronal model of a few billion neurons, or so. YMMV, but don't assume all people have the same needs. - This list is sponsored by AGIRI: http://www.agiri.org/email To unsubscribe or change your options, please go to: http://v2.listbox.com/member/?member_id=4007604&user_secret=7d7fb4d8
