[www.niftyviews.com:25704] Nifty May Continue To Be Under Pressure Amid Rising US Bond Yields And Fear Of GDP Impact As Indian Govt Declares “War” On “Black Money”; Watch 8195-8135 & 8290-8385 In NF T
*Market Mantra: 15/11/2016 (08:15)* As Par early SGX indication, Nifty Fut (Nov) may open around 8240 (-96 points) amid continuing carnage in EM currencies as a result of strong USD & rising bond yields for expectation of more fiscal stimulus/infra spending in PPP mode, tax cuts and boost in inflation. FFR is now indicating around 92% of rate hike probability in Dec’16, which is also making USD/DXY stronger. Although US market is hovering around life time high and EU market is also not faring bad despite significant political risk, there is visible pressure on EM for the last few days, except Japan, which is quite stable for weak Yen and better than expected economic data (yesterday, GDP came much above consensus at 2.2% YOY & 0.5% MOM). As a result of Brexit & Trumpism, nationalistic or anti-establishment politics is on the rise across EU. Italy is going for a constitutional referendum in early Dec’16 and “NO” vote is again on the rise, threatening the political stability (??) there and it may be also viewed as an “Italyexit” like Brexit. Thus, across the EU, there may be some types of rising political risk, where Germany, France, Italy, Netherlands and some other countries are going for election in the coming months (2017-18). Back to home, Indian market may be under immense pressure as a result of sudden “Surgical Strike” on “Black/Unaccounted Money” & demonetization by NAMO. While there is no doubt about the good intention of the Govt to eradicate the menace of “black money”, its may be a reality that India’s consumption story may be severely affected at least in the short to mid-term and we may also have significant effect on the overall GDP too. Although, banking stocks were in the limelight after demonetization drive, the resulting chaos and effect on cash flow & “lack” of unaccounted money may also drive the NPL higher in the coming months, despite “surge” in CASA (bank deposits). Also, in the days ahead, we may see more bank withdrawals than deposits as Indian households may prefer to keep some savings in the new currency notes at home (“hidden savings by Indian house wives”). *Technically, NF has to sustain over 8290-8310* area for rebound towards 8365/8385*-8425 & 8475/8495*-8550 zone for the day (bullish case scenario after gap down opening).* ** *On the other side, sustaining below 8215-8195* area, NF may further fall towards 8135/8115*-8065/8045 & 8000/7975-7925/7900* zone for the day (worst bear case scenario after gap down opening).* ** *Similarly, BNF (19866) may open gap down around 19665 zone and it has to sustain above 19600-19530 area; otherwise, it may further fall towards 19430-19350* & 19150-19000*/18850 area for the day (bear case scenario after gap down opening).* ** *For any meaningful strength, BNF need to sustain above 19800-19900 zone for further rally towards 20050-20350* & 20450-20650* area for the day (alternative bullish case scenario).* <https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-uoF32XzR4yc/WCqESirxVAI/Jdc/spA_99tvBIYxJM3S1A_hZUDwsLMC5ZhOgCLcB/s1600/SGX-NF-15-11-2016.png> SGX-NF <https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-eYggQAYVxT4/WCqEVAAnOdI/Jdg/zDdRz8Jdxo8GSk211C2FGWEloOjexHLMgCLcB/s1600/BNF-PATTERN-11-11-2016.png> BNF -- Thanks & Regards, Asis Ghosh -- Kindly email stock reports at STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com For sharing knowledge -- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE. http://www.niftyviews.com/ Disclaimer :- "The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on their individual experience and perceptions and to share information with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members in investment decisions as equity investment is a risky venture.The administrator of www.Niftyviews.com just provide a platform for the authors to express their opinion and take no guarantee for the genuineness of the same."ANY member of this forum doesnt prepare or publish any research report; or ii. provide research report; or iii. make 'buy/sell/hold' recommendation; or iv. give price target; --- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Niftyviews.com" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to stockresearcher+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
[www.niftyviews.com:25706] Nifty Plunged By Another 200 Points As DXY Hits 100 Amid “Trumponomics” Aided By Concern About Domestic Consumption Story As A Result Of Govt’s “Surgical Strike” On “Black/U
*Market Wrap: 15/11/2016 (16:30)* Nifty Fut (Nov) today plummeted by around 2.40% to close around 8126 after making an opening session high of 8288 and late day low of 8124. NF also closed below key technical level of 8195-8135 zone and consecutive closing below this zone may also open the flood gates for 7900-7200 area in the coming days/months. Indian market today opened lower by around 56 points after extended weekend on the back of continued pressure on EM currencies as a result of “Trumponomics” & strong DXY (dollar index) coupled with rising yield and domestic headwinds of demonetization (war on black money) and its effect on economic activity & overall H2FY17 corporate earnings. Analysts are now expecting an overall Nifty EPS growth of around 10% in FY-17 against earlier estimate of 15%. Although, after EU session kicked off, the “Trumpflation” trade has begun to fade by some extent and Copper & Bond Yield fall slightly from the recent record high, Indian market did not react positively as domestic concern continues and USDINR surged towards 68 levels. Globally, in the current bond market routs, around $9 tln bonds are in severe risk as a result of Trump's rhetoric about more fiscal stimulus package to "rebuild" America and coupled with that the tax cut plans may increase US fiscal deficit & inflation in the coming quarters, which may also prompt Fed for a rapid rate hike (at least 2-3 hikes in 2017 against earlier expectation of 1 hike). In that scenario, USDINR may also surge towards 71 level, which may prompt for more FII selling in the Indian market and this out-flow concern may have also dampened the Indian market mood. The Indian market sentiment also affected by the continuing “Board Room Battle” between Tata & Mistry and weak earnings by some of the key Nifty constituent like Tata Motors. Also, there were visible selling pressure on the NBFC spaces and some private banks having greater retail liabilities. As a result of Govt’s war on black/unaccounted money and subsequent chaos & cash-flow issues, NPL/NPA may increase multifold, especially from the rural regions and CV finance portfolio may also be affected apart from the “jolt” in India’s consumption story, which may be dependent “too much” on the parallel economy of the country for decades (like real estates, autos & expensive 2W, cement, consumer durables etc). In short, confidence of Indian public on its high denomination currency may also be rattled and popularity of NAMO may be also in question after this demonetization crisis and resultant hardships of common people. As a result, various political parties including BJP are indulging in serious political battles and “war of words” as par their convenience. Eventually, this may have a serious effect on the passage of final GST bill in the forthcoming Winter Parliament session and its implementation from April’17 may looks difficult at this point as Govt is pre-occupied with this demonetization chaos and will also be busy for the budget presentation on Feb-1 (2017). Lack of political consensus because of this so called “war on black money” and series of forthcoming state elections may also slow the overall economic reforms from the NAMO Govt and it may be also difficult to roll out GST even by Sep’2017. Apart from the domestic headwinds and high probable Fed rate hike in Dec’16, there are various geo-political events and EU political risks as a result of increasing “Anti-Establishment” notions fuelled by “Brexit” & “Trumpism”, concern of further Chinese Yuan devaluation, fund outflow & debt. Also Russia may be hardening its stance on Syria issues taking advantage of some probable “power vacuum” as a result of “weak” Trump & his election rhetoric about providing “Nato protection” to its EU allies for an “appropriate fees”. Thus between Dec’16 to March’17, there will be various geo-political and economic events which may add significant volatility for the global financial as well as the Indian market. *Technically, consecutive closing below 8485 may invite for 7975-7925 area for NF in the short term and 7200-6800 zone in the mid-term (by March’17).* <https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-eVZcvw4CFlc/WCsFnN4KqCI/Jd0/URUKD-RLiq4YRE7_rcOi6AmDKbJnj5dHACLcB/s1600/SGX-NF-PATTERN-15-11-2016.png> SGX-NF * * -- Thanks & Regards, Asis Ghosh -- Kindly email stock reports at STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com For sharing knowledge -- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE. http://www.niftyviews.com/ Disclaimer :- "The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on their individual experience and perceptions and to share information with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members in investment decisions as equity investment is a risky venture.The administrator of www.Niftyviews.com just provide a pl
[www.niftyviews.com:25707] Nifty May Open Higher & Consolidate As US Bond Yields Halted And Hopes Of Dec Rate Cut By RBI As A Result Of Lower Inflation; But Concern Of Slower Economic Activity & Polit
*Market Mantra: 16/11/2016 (08:15)* As Par early SGX indication, Nifty Fut (Nov) may open around 8220 (+94 points) as US bond yields halted and Trump trades began to fade. Oil is also supporting the “risk on” sentiment after it rallied significantly on the back of renewed optimism about production cut/freeze in the forthcoming OPEC meet aided by Saudi & Russia jawboning. But going ahead, Trump’s election rhetoric of an America independent on its own oil reserve and policy of more US oil pumping, thereby reducing oil import to a great extent (oil trade barriers) may hurt the sentiment. Indian market sentiment today may be supported by the better/mixed macros (CPI & Trade Balance). Yesterday, after market hours, CPI came at 4.20%, which is in line with estimates (prior: 4.31%). Trade balance reports indicate tepid trend of exports, although imports surged on the back of Gold. After last few days “blood bath”, market may cover some shorts on the hopes of RBI rate cut in Dec’16 amid lower CPI figure. If average CPI stands around 4.5%, then RBI may set repo rate to 5.75-6% (4.5+1.25/1.5) theoretically; thus may cut 0.25-0.50% by Dec’16-Feb’17. But, in reality, RBI may watch the high probable Fed rate hike of 0.25% in Dec’16 and to maintain interest rate differential and INR stable against USD, RBI may wait until Feb’17 for more inflation data and actual Fed action. Also, RBI may also consider the present issues of cash flow, its short term effect on inflation and overall economic activity as a result of Demonetization. Domestic market may watch the Political battle as the winter session of Parliament will commence today and progress of GST (final legislation) as a result of Govt’s “War” on black/unaccounted money. In the long run, Govt may need to lower the legacy of high tax regime in India to wipe out the basic cause of “unaccounted money” earned through legitimate way by the “common people” (like sale of lands/real estate etc). Also the continuing battle (war of words) between Tata & Mistry may hurt the sentiment of Tata cos as well as the overall market sentiment as issue of Indian corporate governance is involved here. *Technically, after opening gap up today, NF need to sustain above 8190-8175* area for further bounce back towards 8265-8295* & 8365*-8395 and 8425-8485* zone for the day (bullish case scenario).* ** *On the other side, sustaining below 8175 area, NF may further fall towards 8140-8105* & 8065-8045* and 7975-7925* zone for the day (under bear case scenario after positive opening).* ** *Similarly, BNF (LTP: 19370), need to sustain above 19600-19650* area after opening gap up for further rally towards 19850-19950* & 20050-20200* & 20350-20450* zone for the day (bullish case scenario).* ** *On the other side, sustaining below 20550-20500* area, BNF may further fall towards 19400-19300* & 19150*-19040 and 19000-18850* zone for the day (under bear case scenario).* <https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-9gZKrG1sWDQ/WCvVCppDXVI/JeM/-a_0R3lOyUITtlHcZGLqhLKk2Za8dZHWQCLcB/s1600/SGX-NF-16-11-2016.png> SGX-NF <https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-zhjpS24ukpM/WCvVW0_BheI/JeQ/nhyyg1SIgcMPidlYGFU4YoNbv91fDmxPgCLcB/s1600/BNF-PATTERN-16-11-2016.png> BNF <https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-_BIGyOjz43M/WCvVZJUx4pI/JeU/XbYkm81JU9oioZTCeYle2pohAV5Aws3dgCLcB/s1600/US10YTSY-TL.png> US10YTSY * * -- Thanks & Regards, Asis Ghosh -- Kindly email stock reports at STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com For sharing knowledge -- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE. http://www.niftyviews.com/ Disclaimer :- "The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on their individual experience and perceptions and to share information with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members in investment decisions as equity investment is a risky venture.The administrator of www.Niftyviews.com just provide a platform for the authors to express their opinion and take no guarantee for the genuineness of the same."ANY member of this forum doesnt prepare or publish any research report; or ii. provide research report; or iii. make 'buy/sell/hold' recommendation; or iv. give price target; --- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Niftyviews.com" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to stockresearcher+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
[www.niftyviews.com:25712] Nifty Knocked Off Another 40 Points Amid Fears Of Demonetization & Fed Hikes, Ignoring The “Good” CPI Data In A Clear (?) Sign Of “Distribution” And May Be Heading Towards 7
*Market Wrap: 16/11/2016 (16:30)* Nifty Fut (Nov) today closed around 8099 (-0.50%), just at the last minute low after opening day high of 8225. Domestic market today opened in positive tone (+80 points) on the back of stable Asian & global cues as the US Bond yield surge halted and supported by India’s “good” CPI (4.20%), which also fuelled some rate cut hope (0.25%) by the RBI in its forthcoming Dec monetary policy. But, despite opening considerable gap up, Nifty could not sustain the eventual selling pressure on the back of fatal combination of Fed rate hike & demonetization fears. There was clear sign of long unwinding/short selling pressure at every rise, especially for the consumption related stocks, which further aggravated by the ongoing political battle and continuous chaos on the “real street” as a result of this “Surgical Strike” on the “Black/Unaccounted Money”. It seems that Govt has done a “Surgical Operation” on its own people rather than the intended “Black Money Holder” and instead of initial promise for return of normalcy from the “anesthesia” phase in 2-3 days; it may take now 2-3 months for the “patients” to return to the “normal bed” from the “ICU”. Considering various aspects, it may take at least 2-3 months for the Indian banking system and the economic activity to be normal as there are severe shortages of currency notes and overall use of digital currency is still very poor in India. Although, Indian economy may return to its normal cash-flow in the coming weeks/months, but the overall consumption story may be very tepid as “war on black money” may hurt the purchasing power of the consumers to a great extent. It may take at least 5 years cycle for the overall Indian economy to come clean & recover and until then we may see tepid corporate earnings and significant correction in the market, especially for the expensive mid & small cap sectors in consumption oriented space, dealing specially in cash or “unaccounted/black money”. The correction of the Indian market may further accelerate once global EQ market and S&P-500 catches the reality of a strong USD and begun to correct itself as a strong dollar may not be good for US exports & economy, despite “Trumponomics” (more fiscal spending coupled with tax cuts, which may fuel US fiscal deficit and inflation, prompting Fed for more rapid rate hikes). A strong USD may cause significant EM currencies devaluation, which may also prompt more fund outflows from the EM as well as Indian bond & EQ market, where liquidity may be the main reason for the stupendous rally of more than 30% in the past six months or so. China Yuan today hovering almost around 6.90, which may also target 6.95 in the days ahead and a serious Chinese jitters may not be good for the “risk assets” too. Globally all eyes will be on Yellen’s testimony tomorrow to have a glimpse of the Fed’s view for the recent economic & political development in US. Considering all the pros & cons, Fed is ready for its 2016 annual rate hike in Dec as Yellen may also like to hike before Trump officially take charge in Jan’17 and thus FFR is now indicating almost 100% probability of a Dec’16 rate hike. But, the main concern may be “dot plots” of Fed as going ahead; Fed may be compelled to hike at least 2 times in 2017 to fight the probable “Trumpflation” against earlier market perception of 1 hike. Indian market sentiment may be also affected today, after report that Govt may sent the full GST legislation bill to the states again and in that scenario, coupled with the present political dead lock because of demonetization issues, preparation of budget and forth coming series of state elections, Govt may be too pre-occupied and roll out of GST may be further delayed also from April’17 to Sep’17 (??). There was another buzz that Govt has banned any FDI in the tobacco sector and consequently ITC, which has a significant weight on Nifty, also got down. The sentiment of the domestic market may be further dragged today after report of Pak army exercise near Indian border. *Overall, technically, consecutive closing below 8200-8140 zone, NF may fall further towards 8040-7925 & 7675 area in the near term. * *The present “distribution” pattern may change only, if NF is able to close consistently above 8270 and in that scenario; expect a “dead cat bounce” towards 8380-8485 & 8540 in the weeks ahead.* <https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-_V7r18N5tDs/WCxZK5WXccI/Jeo/tFGt2J_jE-Us-cOWY-Ax0_wEVOBnQhpVwCLcB/s1600/SGX-NF-PATTERN-16-11-2016.png> SGX-NF * * -- Thanks & Regards, Asis Ghosh -- Kindly email stock reports at STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com For sharing knowledge -- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE. http://www.niftyviews.com/ Disclaimer :- "The opinions expressed by the members
[www.niftyviews.com:25713] Nifty May Open Slightly Higher Amid Flat Global Cues Supported By Weak US Economic Data and Flat Bond Yields; Watch 8075-8045 & 8155-8185 Zone In NF For Any Definitive Movem
* Market Mantra: 17/11/2016 (08:30)* As par early SGX indication, Nifty Fut (Nov) may open around 8120 (+21 points) following flat global cues after weak US economic data overnight, which made a pause for the surging US bond yields and USD fall slightly from the recent record high. USD is also under some pressure as market may be slowly realizing that despite “President” Trump sounds quite different than “Candidate” Trump (pre-election rhetoric), there are still some elements of uncertainty and unless & until Trump release any specific plan about his fiscal stimulus and funding mechanism without hurting the US fiscal deficit too much, the overall notion of “Trumponomics” may be treated as simple jawboning. But, growing EU political risk (Brexit & coming referendum and elections in various EU countries) may be another reason for strength in USD apart from “Trumpflation” and a strong USD may not be good for EM currencies including India. Overnight, volatility in crude oil was remarkable amid unexpected built up in inventories and various OPEC squabbling. Although, Russia & Saudi are now apparently trying for an output freeze/cut, Iran & Iraq may not join with this deal at all. Also, Trump’s policy of pumping more US oil and less reliance on its import may hurt the sentiment going ahead and in case there will be no formal OPEC deal by this month, a capitulation of oil may be stared again towards $33-25 level. Domestically, along with the ongoing fears of “war on black money” & demonetization effect on the consumption story, all eyes will be on the political battles and progress of GST. Overall, considering all the scenarios, April’17 roll out of GST may looks quite difficult at this point of time as Govt as well as the oppositions are too much pre-occupied with the demonetization politics and real economic activity has hurt quite remarkably also. Under this circumstances, both Govt & business community may not be prepared for a countrywide implementation of GST by Aprl’17 as time may be running out. Moody’s yesterday kept the rating of India at the same grade with positive outlook. Although, Indian Govt has perusing various reforms in a great way, lack of proper implementation and its effect is not yet visible on the real economy. It has also cautioned the Govt against burgeoning public debt and lack of private investments (issue of twin balance sheet). Yesterday, Indian market sentiment may be affected in the last hour after Nascom slashed IT earnings for FY-17 by around 3%. There was visible selling pressure for the IT scrips at the last half an hour of trading, which gave some support to the overall market sentiment initially. *Technically, NF has sustain above 8075-8045* zone today; otherwise it may fall further towards 8000/7975 & 7925/7900* area for the day (bear case scenario).* *For any strength, NF need to sustain above 8155-8185* zone for further rebound towards 8230-8270* & 8330-8385* area for the day (bullish case scenario).* *Similarly, BNF (LTP: 19140), need to sustain above 19095-19000* area; otherwise it may further fall towards 18850-18700* & 18550-18450/340* zone for the day (bear case scenario).* *For any strength, BNF need to stay above 19250-19350* area for further up move towards 19500-19600 & 19850-19950* zone for the day (bullish case scenario).* For the last few days, after the demonetization fiasco, Banks were supportive for the overall market because of greater CASA collection and eventual reduction in cost of funds. But that perception is now slowly changing as banks may also face incremental growth in NPA/NPL as cash-flow of the economy may be greatly affected going forward. <https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-5BkIBOGinCM/WC0ovT-Y-GI/JfQ/4YK7Z6ELOa036piUisyfPVUuP92KzBs8gCEw/s1600/SGX-NF-17-11-2016.png> SGX-NF <https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-PCeSOheikoo/WC0ox44sB-I/JfY/I5X_M6wGtj4bDQYbPm41vYALE6uZGuV2gCEw/s1600/BNF-16-11-2016.png> BNF -- Thanks & Regards, Asis Ghosh -- Kindly email stock reports at STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com For sharing knowledge -- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE. http://www.niftyviews.com/ Disclaimer :- "The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on their individual experience and perceptions and to share information with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members in investment decisions as equity investment is a risky venture.The administrator of www.Niftyviews.com just provide a platform for the authors to express their opinion and take no guarantee for the genuineness of the same."ANY member of this forum doesnt prepare or publish any research report; or ii. provide research report; or iii. make 'buy/sell/hold' recommendation; or iv. give price target; --- You received this me
[www.niftyviews.com:25719] Nifty Closed Flat As All Rebound May Be Indicating “A Dead Cat Bounce” Amid Ongoing Demonetization Chaos & Fear Of “Hawkish” Fed—Watch 8035 Area In NF In The Coming Days; Be
ubt, the methodology and the implementation of the same may be debatable. For a vast country like India, 85% of currency replacement is not a child’s play and from the overall scenario, it may take at least 3 months instead of Govt’s initial commitments of 3 days of pains. Moreover, overall public confidence on the Indian currency as a result of such sudden “surgical strike” may be shattered and more & more people will “hoard” Gold as USD is not legally tenable here. Eventually, this massive demonetization effort may back fire on several respects, both economically and politically. *Looking at the chart, it seems that 8155-8200 area will act as strong resistance for the NF now and in that scenario, sustaining below 8035 zone, it may fall further towards 7975-7925 & 7675-7425 in the near term. If this trend continues, then we may see Nifty around 7200-6600 by FY: 17-18 as “death cross” may be imminent.* *But in this time of volatility, accumulation of stocks having good professional management with unquestionable integrity, business visibility and de-leveraged balance sheet may work well, if an investor is not carried away by "unnecessary" emotions and act like a Pros, even for the short term. * *Market is now a trader's paradise and may be remain so in the days ahead. * * * <https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-h9K74cA_2Rs/WC2562LHvrI/Jfw/yJpqW_d3p-wwjoDzCNpZuTj5pW48pPkiACLcB/s1600/SGX-NF-WK-17-11-2016.png> SGX-NF <https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-QjrbBSMYUyk/WC259V5xVDI/Jf0/7afeXe22eL81UEftsUw5sTGE-k4LLX4mwCLcB/s1600/SGX-NF-EMA%2BCROSS-17-11-2016.png> * * -- Thanks & Regards, Asis Ghosh -- Kindly email stock reports at STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com For sharing knowledge -- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE. http://www.niftyviews.com/ Disclaimer :- "The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on their individual experience and perceptions and to share information with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members in investment decisions as equity investment is a risky venture.The administrator of www.Niftyviews.com just provide a platform for the authors to express their opinion and take no guarantee for the genuineness of the same."ANY member of this forum doesnt prepare or publish any research report; or ii. provide research report; or iii. make 'buy/sell/hold' recommendation; or iv. give price target; --- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Niftyviews.com" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to stockresearcher+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
[www.niftyviews.com:25720] Nifty May Be Continue Under Pressure Amid Tepid Global Cues After Yellen’s Hawkish Stance And Domestic Concern Over Slowing Economy As A Result Of Clamp Down On “Parallel Ec
*Market Mantra: 18/11/2016 (08:30)* As par early SGX indication, Nifty Fut (Nov) may open around 8080 (-20 points) following negative global cues after Yellen “almost confirmed” about Dec’16 rate hike by Fed and also hinted about gradual rate hike next year (most probably 2 rate hikes in 2017) in order to ensure that Fed does not fall behind the curve. But, she also cautioned about excessive fiscal stimulus by “Trumponomics”, which may cause excessive “heat” (inflation) in the economy. Thus, overall stance of Yellen in yesterday’s testimony is quite hawkish and USD is gaining strength across the board coupled with EU political risk, dovish stance of ECB & BOJ. Only GBP is showing decent strength against USD as a result of UK’s upbeat retail sales data yesterday. Another factor is that yesterday’s US economic data was quite good beating the consensus and coupled with that China’s effort to control the “hot” property market and restructuring the steel production overcapacity has resulted in some dips in commodity currencies. Oil is also under pressure after OPEC squabbling and report that the proposed cut/freeze in production may be valid for only six months. As a result, dollar index (DXY) is now at multiyear high around 101.35 eyeing 101.75-102.50 levels in the days ahead and in that scenario, USDINR may also target 69-71 levels, which may also cause some panic among FPI(s) and fund out flow may accelerate. Domestically, after plunge in market sentiment as a result of NAMO’s “war on black money”, demonetization and ongoing political battle; Govt is perusing various incremental reforms in an effort to stabilize the market. Indian Govt yesterday eased the corporate bond investments rules by the FPI(s) in an effort to attract more investments in the country. But, this may be also interpreted as a “panic reaction” from the Govt and the sentiment is so gloomy on the concern of India’s great story of consumption because of sudden “surgical strike” on the “black/unaccounted money”, this initiative at this juncture which was a part of FY-17 budget may be too late & too little. *Technically, NF need to sustain above 8035 zone today; otherwise it may further fall towards 8000/7975-7925/7890* & 7755-7675 area for the day (bear case scenario).* *For any strength, NF need to stay above 8125 area for further bounce towards 8155/8175*-8210/8225 & 8265*/8300-8355/8395 zone for the day (bullish case scenario).* *Similarly, BNF (LTP: 19213), need to sustain above 19150 zone; otherwise it may fall towards 19040-18950* & 18850*-18700 area for the day (bear case scenario).* *For any strength, NF need to stay above 19400 area for further rally towards 19500-19650 & 19850-19950* zone for the day (bullish case scenario).* <https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-j4-rdUIJtvY/WC55ub4Uu7I/JgU/shKC1zisEHU7wCCVPWGqmr3adtTd07mMwCLcB/s1600/SGX-NF-PATTERN-18-11-2016.png> SGX-NF <https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-cuthQdWYY2A/WC55v2V7I9I/JgY/722yrAhUW5Qfl7HyUrD60-jx8q9ytVfsACLcB/s1600/BNF-17-11-2016.png> BNF * * -- Thanks & Regards, Asis Ghosh -- Kindly email stock reports at STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com For sharing knowledge -- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE. http://www.niftyviews.com/ Disclaimer :- "The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on their individual experience and perceptions and to share information with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members in investment decisions as equity investment is a risky venture.The administrator of www.Niftyviews.com just provide a platform for the authors to express their opinion and take no guarantee for the genuineness of the same."ANY member of this forum doesnt prepare or publish any research report; or ii. provide research report; or iii. make 'buy/sell/hold' recommendation; or iv. give price target; --- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Niftyviews.com" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to stockresearcher+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
[www.niftyviews.com:25723] Nifty Closed In Slight Negative After Another Day’s Of Consolidation (Distribution?); But Closed The Week Almost 3% Lower Marked By Demonetization Chaos & Rising US Bond Yie
n POK (CPEC) to trade directly with West Asia, South Africa & some parts of EU to promote growth in lieu of over reliance on US, this may take more time. Back to home, apart from the strength in USD and outflow concern, Indian market is under severe pressure because of concern of slowing economic activity and its effect on GDP & earnings in FY: 17-18 as a result of Govt’s war on black money. As par some reports, GDP may fall towards 6.5-5.8% by FY: 17-18 and Nifty EPS may also be downgraded for an 8-10% CAGR (FY-17) instead of earlier estimate of 15-18% as a significant portion of India’s domestic consumption story is dependent on the “informal parallel economy”. The transition from “black” to “white” economy may take more time and it may take at least five years for any meaningful upturn in the viscous cycle of demand & investments. Ultimately, 85% of cash replacement in a vast economy & country like India is not a child’s play, where almost 80% transactions are done in “cash”. Simply speaking, the country may not be prepared for a “plastic” economy right now and this conversion from “cash economy” may take more times. Indian market sentiment may also be affected to some extent after reports of SC, taking a tough stand against the Govt for the present chaos of demonetization. Market may be also ignoring several incremental reforms/projects announced by the Govt this week due to this demonetization overhang. Another point is that even if RBI goes for an aggressive rate cuts in the coming months (0.50-1.00% by FY: 17-18), INR may be further devalued and FPI outflow may also increase. In a country, where bank & small savings rate are quite high, it may not be possible for the banks to offer lower lending rate without cutting bank deposit rates despite advantage of greater CASA at lower costs as a result of demonetization and favourable bond markets. So, unless & until bank and small savings rate does not go significantly lower, it may not be possible for the banks to transmit full rate cuts effects to the borrowers/economy and in that scenario, RBI repo rate cuts may not make any difference for the overall cost of funds of the borrowers apart from improvements of bottom lines of the banks. Slashing of high savings rate in India may also be politically counter-productive and not possible and no Govt will try for it. Thus, lack of full & effective rate cut transmissions by the banks to the economy may not yield any significant improvement for the overall earnings of the corporates. Higher CASA/deposits may temporary help banks, but we may see also significant bank withdrawals once current crisis of cash shortage goes normal after 3-6 months as most of the recent cash deposits in old notes may be from house hold savings and Indian House Wives may continue like to “hoard” it at their home. Although overall inflation may dip as a result of suchdemonetization,in thelong term, in the short term food inflation may spike also as supply is lessthan demand for lack of "cash". RealEstate prices has already began to fall but that may also pose significant risks to the entire financial system. No black money holder having significant amount of unaccounted/graft/illegal money will go to bank for surrender to face both 60% “loss” and prosecution. There are several other ways (leakages) with 20-40% notional “loss” to convert it into new notes or some other assets. A significant portion of that black money may be also lost and will never return to the formal system. In order to wipe out the black money, Govt need to plug the loopholes in our system and stop the source of corruption first. Simple demonetization and then again replace it with the same or higher denomination of currency notes may not yield the expected result apart from the harassment of the ordinary citizens. Apart from all the demonetization related debates, Govt may ensure the same size & shape (compatible) new notes for 500 & 2000 (withold 1000 notes), so that overall recalibration and replacements of new notes will be easier. The overall costs of this demonetization may also be huge(Rs.13000-2000Cr ?) for the Govt fiscal position and also for the banks, which may be reflected in H2FY17 earnings for them. In any way, Govt may be quite successful to have a “fear factor” in the minds of so called black money holders and going forward, it may be even tough to transact in “cash” or even through "shadow" bank A/C and India, being traditionally an “informal black economy”, the present transition to “formal white economy” may take more times and until then, the great domestic story of consumption may take the back seat. <https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-BbY9I2LxZu4/WC8VAAwjn8I/AAAAJgs/q-LPbFtC9owTBIjCuyxWR9nPSnsBoSdLwCLcB/s1600/SGX-NF-TL-18-11-2016.png> SGX-NF -- Thanks & Regards, Asis Ghosh (asisghosh.blog
[www.niftyviews.com:25725] Nifty May Open Flat Amid Positive Global Cues After Mild Weakness In USD; But Concerns Of Demonetization, Political War & Implementation Of GST May Drag; Watch 8035-7975 & 8
*Market Mantra: 21/11/2016 (08:30)* As par early SGX indication, Nifty Fut (Nov) may open around 8080 (+10 points) following mild positive Asian cues after some drops in USD (DXY). EUR gained slightly after Draghi comments that ECB may wind up QE gradually if inflation is started to peak. After dust of “Trump rally” settles, some analysts are concerned over the perception that “Trumponomics” may invite stagflation in US amid possibility of higher inflation combined with lower growth. This, coupled with Trump’s trade protection rhetoric (“America first”) may put US in an economic disaster as par some section of the market. Another factor is that, in reality all the major reform policies and fiscal spending may be subject to US congress approval. Although it’s a rare combination of republican congress & a republican president now, still Trump may face some hurdles in passage of any controversial bill from the congress. Now it’s almost certain that Fed is going to hike in Dec’16, all attention will be on the Fed’s future guidelines of rate action in 2017 and overall it seems that Yellen may prefer for a balanced approach of two hikes in 2017 under the new Trump administration. In 2015, apart from Fed hike in Dec, Fed’s dot plots of four hikes (??) in 2016 caused the significant market meltdown (risk off) apart from China’s Yuan devaluation and capitulation in oil. Thus, going forward, Fed’s guidance may be more important for the market as Dec’16 rate hike is now almost discounted. Back to home, demonetization fiasco and the “surgical strike” on black money may continue to drag the Indian market sentiment. Slowing economic activity, weak consumer sentiment and tepid consumption may drag FY-17 GDP by at least 0.5% and earnings (EPS) by around 5% from the previously estimated figure. Apart from the demonetization rhetoric, failure of consensus for the dual control mechanism in the informal GST meet yesterday may also drag the sentiment of the market. GST council may again meet officially on 24-25-th Nov for the same. Although, Govt is still hopeful for the much publicized April’17 roll out of the same, we may not be surprised too much to hear later that the Govt is postponing the same to Sep’17 for lack of consensus and current chaos of demonetization amid another political game of “ping pong”. Winter parliament session may be going for another “washout” amid this “war of words” between various political parties including BJP. Eventually, it may be quite tough for the Govt for passage of the full GST bill (CGST/IGST etc) in this session and in that scenario, even Sep’17 GST roll out may looks difficult as there will be a number of state elections. *Technically, NF has to sustain over 8140* area for further rebound towards 8185-8215* & 8265-8285* zone for the day (bullish case scenario).* *On the other side, sustain below 8115* area, NF may further fall towards 8065-8035* & 7975-7925* zone for the day (bear case scenario).* *Similarly, BNF (LTP: 18980) has to sustain over 18850* zone; otherwise it may further fall towards 18700-18650* & 18440*-18350 area for the day (under bear case scenario).* *For any strength, BNF needs to sustain over 19050* area for further up move towards 19200*-19250 & 19350-19500* zone for the day (under bullish case scenario). * <https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-2bjvRTH6bFE/WDJuFd1o5GI/Jhw/j1dJ7t11CNMmKsxLsiqTq_1vPSDQzaq2gCLcB/s1600/SGX-NF-21-11-2016.png> SGX-NF <https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-14LIPiNXqjg/WDJuHFaCwDI/Jh0/RrQ9yMhzjQ0-C8fdXKPIaRDil0YNlHERQCLcB/s1600/BNF-18-11-2016.png> BNF * * -- Thanks & Regards, Asis Ghosh -- Kindly email stock reports at STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com For sharing knowledge -- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE. http://www.niftyviews.com/ Disclaimer :- "The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on their individual experience and perceptions and to share information with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members in investment decisions as equity investment is a risky venture.The administrator of www.Niftyviews.com just provide a platform for the authors to express their opinion and take no guarantee for the genuineness of the same."ANY member of this forum doesnt prepare or publish any research report; or ii. provide research report; or iii. make 'buy/sell/hold' recommendation; or iv. give price target; --- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Niftyviews.com" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to stockresearcher+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
[www.niftyviews.com:25730] Nifty Ends In A “Free Fall” Mode Amid Demonetization & Fed Fears Of Rate Hikes Despite Positive Global Cues Supported By Rally In Oil And Fall In Bond Yields As “Trump Trade
ut more pressure on the overall market sentiment. Globally oil rallied today after Russian (Putin) jawboning about OPEC production freeze/cut later this month. USD was under some pressure, as “Trump trade” fades on the perception that “Trumponomics” may bring stagflation in US in the coming years coupled with high inflation & lower growth. Metals and iron ore are also correcting on the perception that it will be not so easy for Trump to convince even the republican congress for a $1 TLN fiscal/infra spending to rebuild America. Thus, going forward apart from hawkish Fed and EM currency jitters, US & EU political risks may be some of the additional headwinds for the global as well as the Indian market along with its own sets of domestic issues & political risks. The intention of the Govt/NAMO to wipe out the corruptions is definitely good, but the implementation & planning may not be so. Govt has to eradicate the basic causes of corruptions and black money in the system and by simple demonetization it can’t be achieved as most of the so called black/unaccounted money has already converted into other forms of assets. The resultant chaos and suffering of the common man on the street as a result of this demonetization may pose a higher political risk for the NDA Govt rather than any meaningful benefit. Traditionally, the great story of Indian consumption was largely dependent on the so called “black/cash economy” and for the last few years it was transforming gradually from the “informal” to “formal” economy for a number of steps undertaken by the Govt to reduce cash transactions. But there were no lack of loop holes and leakages either. Thus, for the last few years the highly expected earnings recovery remains elusive despite several “green shoots” in the economy for this slow transformation of “black economy” into “white economy”. With the sudden “surgical strike” on the “black economy”, permanent wealth destruction may happen or currency may convert into other forms of assets (gold/foreign currency/real estate) and the lack of sufficient liquidity may also affect the consumption story of India at last for the next 5-10 years. Thus any meaningful recovery in earnings may continue to be remained as "elusive". <https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-0MC_RqyQeKA/WDMDiFCGqBI/JiM/IWBIypzKA50O3DpGPyUKOicohC4zcWltwCLcB/s1600/SGX-NF-PATTERN-21-11-2016.png> -- Thanks & Regards, Asis Ghosh -- Kindly email stock reports at STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com For sharing knowledge -- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE. http://www.niftyviews.com/ Disclaimer :- "The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on their individual experience and perceptions and to share information with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members in investment decisions as equity investment is a risky venture.The administrator of www.Niftyviews.com just provide a platform for the authors to express their opinion and take no guarantee for the genuineness of the same."ANY member of this forum doesnt prepare or publish any research report; or ii. provide research report; or iii. make 'buy/sell/hold' recommendation; or iv. give price target; --- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Niftyviews.com" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to stockresearcher+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
[www.niftyviews.com:25731] Nifty May Open Gap Up (0.50%) On The Back Of Positive Global Cues Amid Rally In Oil & Drop In USD; But Domestic Headwinds May Drag Later On---Watch 8055-8100 & 8020-7970 Zon
*Market Mantra: 22/11/2016 (08:30)* As par early SGX indication, Nifty Fut (Nov) may open around 8005 (+46 points) after overnight rally in US stock Futs & positive Asian cues amid rally in oil & some drops in US bond yields. *Currently, S&P-500 Fut (SPF) is trading at life time high (2200) and next rally may only come on sustaining above 2210-2215* area for target of 2235*-2260 zone; otherwise sustaining below 2205 zone, it may fall towards 2190*-2170 area in the near term.* Oil rallied after jawboning by Russian President Putin and a report that Iran-Iraq may agree for a production freeze/cut (?) in the much awaited OPEC meet later this month. But, still there are lots of skepticism about modalities and reality of any OPEC induced production cut/freeze and its durability. *In any way, Crude Oil (48.70), need to sustain above 50-53 for any further meaningful rally towards 63-71 in the near term; otherwise it may again come down towards 45-43.* Trump policy of pumping more US oil and less reliance on import may drag down oil despite continuous OPEC jawboning & squabbling. USD is under pressure after tremendous “Trump Rally” on the notion that “Trumponomics” may bring some kind of stagflation in the US economy. Also, last night’s massive earthquake is making Yen stronger as generally, such devastating earthquake and probable tsunami may invite more domestic fund flows (JPY) in to rebuilding of Japan. But, these are all temporary drivers and ultimately, due to monetary policy divergence between Fed & BOJ/ECB will make USD stronger and increasing EU political risks may add further strength to the USD, making EM currencies extremely vulnerable. Thus, apart from the ongoing global headwinds & hawkish Fed, Indian market has also its own domestic issues (headwinds) in the form of demonetization lead chaos and its immediate & long term impact on the GDP, consumption/demands & earnings of the corporate India. Also, intensified political battles for this demonetization may also wash out the current winter session of parliament and jeopardize the passage of final GST bill & the implementation of the same from April’17. It may also impact overall reform initiatives of the Govt as public & market sentiment is also severely affected. *Technically, NF has to sustain over 8020* zone for further rebound towards 8055-8100* & 8160*-8210 area for the day (bullish case scenario).* *On the other side, sustaining below 8000* zone, it may further fall towards 7970-7920* & 7870-7700* area for the day (bear case scenario)* *Similarly, BNF (18492) has to sustain above 18600* zone for further rally towards 18900-19050* & 19200-19450* area for the day (bullish case scenario).* *On the other side, sustaining below 18500* zone, BNF may further fall towards 18340*-18200 & 18100-17850* area for the day (bear case scenario).* <https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-LJzDN2OaC6g/WDO_TfHsBKI/Jio/sdbUTWOiDyItaoI-ldzdS_1_3MEdW6-9gCLcB/s1600/NF-PATTERN-21-11-2016.png> -- Thanks & Regards, Asis Ghosh -- Kindly email stock reports at STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com For sharing knowledge -- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE. http://www.niftyviews.com/ Disclaimer :- "The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on their individual experience and perceptions and to share information with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members in investment decisions as equity investment is a risky venture.The administrator of www.Niftyviews.com just provide a platform for the authors to express their opinion and take no guarantee for the genuineness of the same."ANY member of this forum doesnt prepare or publish any research report; or ii. provide research report; or iii. make 'buy/sell/hold' recommendation; or iv. give price target; --- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Niftyviews.com" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to stockresearcher+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
[www.niftyviews.com:25735] Nifty Snapped Six Days “Demonetization” Fall And “Rallied” 1% Supported By Short Covering, Mixed By-Poll Results & Positive Global Cues; Is It Another “Dead Cat Bounce” Amid
an official agreement for production cut/freeze in reality and even if it’s done, then the durability and actual implementation mechanism may be a great headwind. Eventually, such OPEC & non-OPEC (Russia) production cut agreement may be remained to be an illusion and moreover, Trump rhetoric about trade barriers & more US oil for America may be turn into reality Yesterday, in a You Tube presentation, Trump vows to scrap the TPP agreement. Trump also tweeted that; Nigel (a key Brexit leader in UK) should be given the job of new UK ambassador in US, which prompted an instant reply from the UK Govt that there is “no vacancy”. Previously, Trump was seen as a supporter for UK’s soft Brexit effort in its negotiation with the EU, but the latest act of Trump may be another example of “out of establishment” and may also put some pressure on the diplomatic & trade relations between UK & US. Overall, trade barriers & "America First" rhetoric of Trump as a "President" may not be good for the global financial market and specially for the EM/Indian market. <https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-DfQTysueC2Q/WDRROgXrAuI/AAAAJi8/gADUdMn6wSoXaurnLdOQgILH5Yeu7lEAQCLcB/s1600/NF-FIBB-22-11-2016.png> -- Thanks & Regards, Asis Ghosh -- Kindly email stock reports at STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com For sharing knowledge -- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE. http://www.niftyviews.com/ Disclaimer :- "The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on their individual experience and perceptions and to share information with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members in investment decisions as equity investment is a risky venture.The administrator of www.Niftyviews.com just provide a platform for the authors to express their opinion and take no guarantee for the genuineness of the same."ANY member of this forum doesnt prepare or publish any research report; or ii. provide research report; or iii. make 'buy/sell/hold' recommendation; or iv. give price target; --- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Niftyviews.com" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to stockresearcher+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
[www.niftyviews.com:25736] Nifty May Open In Positive Tone (+0.40%) Supported By Positive Global Cues; But Continues Domestic Concerns Because Of Demonetization & Strong USD May Drag Later; Watch 8080
*Market Mantra: 23/11/2016 (08:30)* As par early SGX indication, Nifty Fut (Nov) may open around 8050 (+32 points) following overnight record highest ever closing of the US market and positive/stable Asian cues amid holiday thinned market (Japan closed today and there will be four day weekend for the US market starting from tomorrow). Globally, USD regains some strength after initial drops yesterday supported by upbeat US economic data (Existing home sales & Richmond Fed Mfg index). Also, overall bond yield spread between US & German/EU/UK are helping USD and unless *DXY (101) has sustained below 100, it may again rally towards 102 & 103-105 zone in the near term, which may put immense pressure on the EM currencies including INR.* Recent outflow from India pegs around $10 BLN and in the likely scenario of a hawkish Fed & “Trumponomics”, we may see more outflow from the EM as well as the Indian market. Today, all eyes will be on the FOMC minutes (Nov) to have some idea about Fed’s core thinking about Dec’16 & 2017 rate hike plans. Oil is again come under some pressure amid continuing OPEC squabbling despite supportive inventory data as now Iraq is raising some points about the production cut/freeze. Metals, specially copper & iron ore has rallied significantly due to Chinese demands/stocking ahead of holiday season there and Trump rhetoric about more fiscal/infra spending. UK, also unveil its budget shortly, which may also emphasize more on fiscal/infra spending along with tax cuts. Back to home, Indian market may continue to be under pressure despite some short covering led “dead cat bounce” as it seems that there is no meaningful follow up buying support in the market amid concerns of demonetization. All eyes will be also on the intensifying political battles on the parliament streets of New Delhi as well as on the “real battle” going on at the J&K LOC (Pak). The growing political “war of words” & debates because of the demonetization between different parties & BJP may eventually derail the immediate passage & implementation of GST and some other vital reform initiatives by the Govt. *Technically, NF has to sustain over 8080* zone for further rebound towards 8115-8160* & 8215-8245* zone for the day (bullish case scenario).* *On the other side, sustaining below 8040* area, NF may fall towards 8000*-7960 & 7920-7870 and 7700-7650 zone for the day (bear case scenario).* *Similarly, BNF (18600) need to sustain above 18850* zone for further up move towards 19050*-19200 & 19450-19650* area for the day (bullish case scenario).* *On the other side, sustaining below 18440* zone, BNF may further fall towards 18350*-18200 & 18100-17850 and 17650-17425 area for the day (bear case scenario).* <https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-tCR1Cfn1-8U/WDUQ4V4RO1I/JjU/88_9EakZ7aUTe5ug7Prp9_XVDFKZjs_dwCLcB/s1600/NF-22-11-2016.png> NF <https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-CA1qfbEE00o/WDUQ5y_WnOI/JjY/CvV2uCqJobUgT2Ml2Zavfse-dN952Nx-gCLcB/s1600/BNF-22-11-2016.png> BNF -- Thanks & Regards, Asis Ghosh -- Kindly email stock reports at STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com For sharing knowledge -- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE. http://www.niftyviews.com/ Disclaimer :- "The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on their individual experience and perceptions and to share information with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members in investment decisions as equity investment is a risky venture.The administrator of www.Niftyviews.com just provide a platform for the authors to express their opinion and take no guarantee for the genuineness of the same."ANY member of this forum doesnt prepare or publish any research report; or ii. provide research report; or iii. make 'buy/sell/hold' recommendation; or iv. give price target; --- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Niftyviews.com" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to stockresearcher+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
[www.niftyviews.com:25738] Nifty Closed Flat In Another Day Of Short Covering Supported By Positive Global Cues Ahead Of Deluge Of US Economic Data & FNO Exp Amid Multiple Domestic Headwinds
s domestic as well as global reasons (both headwinds & tailwinds) and one should take this volatility as an opportunity without any emotion. *The current correction of the Indian market may not be a simple “time correction”, it may be more of a “price or structural correction”. A strong USD, coupled with FPI outflow & multiple domestic headwinds & slower earning recovery may be some of the reasons for which we may see Nifty trading between 7900-6800 in 2017 rather than 8000-8500 & 9000 zone. * ** *Valuation wise, at projected FY-17 Nifty EPS of around 405 and an average PE multiple of 18 may translate Nifty fair value around 7290 (FY-17).* <https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-clpElAmX1W4/WDWj6EuLRGI/Jj0/FQB-ikzXw8w39L7e1K_sASXKPflYeYAFACLcB/s1600/NF-PATTERN-23-11-2016.png> NF -- Thanks & Regards, Asis Ghosh -- Kindly email stock reports at STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com For sharing knowledge -- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE. http://www.niftyviews.com/ Disclaimer :- "The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on their individual experience and perceptions and to share information with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members in investment decisions as equity investment is a risky venture.The administrator of www.Niftyviews.com just provide a platform for the authors to express their opinion and take no guarantee for the genuineness of the same."ANY member of this forum doesnt prepare or publish any research report; or ii. provide research report; or iii. make 'buy/sell/hold' recommendation; or iv. give price target; --- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Niftyviews.com" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to stockresearcher+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
[www.niftyviews.com:25739] Nifty May Open In Negative Tone (-0.7%) As FOMC Mins Show Confidence In Near Term Rate Hike And May Be Further Under Pressure For Demonetization Led Business Disruption In T
*Watch 7920*-7880 & 8040-8080* Zone In NF* *Market Mantra: 24/11/2016 (08:30)* As par early SGX indication Nifty Fut (Nov) may open around 7965 (-60 points) as USD/DXY is gaining strength after yesterday’s FOMC minutes (Nov; Pre-Trump victory date) show confidence among Fed members for a near term (Dec’16) rate hike with some cautious approach for justifying its own credibility. The hawkish FOMC minutes along with upbeat/mixed US economic data deluge yesterday is making USD stronger across the board and Chinese Yuan is now trading below its June’2008 low around 6.91 and various EM/Asian currencies are also at their 7 years low. As par some reports, Yuan may fall towards 7.20 by next few months and that may cause significant headwinds for the global financial market (risk assets) as it was in last year after Fed’s Dec’15 rate hike. Another point is that, “Trumponomics” may spar similar fiscal/infra spending among various others DM, which may prompt for more capital outflow out of EM as days ofeasy money policy (QQE) may be over. Australia just announced a massive infra spending package of around $80 bln. Mere talk of “Trumpflation” & more fiscal spending rhetoric by “Trumponomics” caused the Yen significant weakness in a matter of two weeks, which BOJ couldn’t achieve despite decades of QQE & months of verbal jawboning. Thus, going forward, we may see less reliance on monetary policy (QQE) and greater thrust on fiscal spending intended for the “real street” in order to create jobs and also spur the required inflation or stagflation (??). India, being one of the key beneficiaries of the global”easy money” (liquidity) may be also quite vulnerable for this expected out flow, which is already happening. One of the reasons for India being a “sweet spot” in the global economy may be its appeal of 3-D (democracy, demography & demand). Now, after the current demonetization led business disruption, which may be temporary in nature as cash supply will definitely improve in the coming days, the overall collateral damage may be more than the intended benefit. As Indian consumption story may be much dependent on the so called “black/unaccounted money”, be it in cash or in some other forms, the sudden “surgical strike” and continuing “war” stance of the Govt on this “black money” may hurt the overall consumer demand, GDP and also the earnings of the corporate India in the mid to long term (at least next five years). *Technically, NF has to sustain over 8040* zone for further rebound towards 8080*-8160 area for the day (bullish case scenario).* *On the other side, sustaining below 8020* area, NF may further fall towards 7960-7920* & 7880-7800* zone for the day (bear case scenario).* *Similarly, BNF (18530) has to sustain above 18750* zone for further up move towards 18850-18950* & 19050*-19250 area for the day (bullish case scenario).* *On the other side, sustaining below 18350* area, it may further fall towards 18200-18100* & 17850*-17540 zone for the day (bear case scenario).* <https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-Sq3eHi7-NRk/WDZiIrTgGKI/JkM/sHJ7EGPEWvE6qaWdm6aME6l52-KTaEG5QCLcB/s1600/NF-23-11-2016.png> NF <https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-hzB2VwghWVQ/WDZiKDgtfVI/JkQ/saqnWvlephYwwBhxRAj5zS1xLR4_1Yc_wCLcB/s1600/BNF-23-11-2016.png> BNF * * -- Thanks & Regards, Asis Ghosh -- Kindly email stock reports at STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com For sharing knowledge -- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE. http://www.niftyviews.com/ Disclaimer :- "The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on their individual experience and perceptions and to share information with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members in investment decisions as equity investment is a risky venture.The administrator of www.Niftyviews.com just provide a platform for the authors to express their opinion and take no guarantee for the genuineness of the same."ANY member of this forum doesnt prepare or publish any research report; or ii. provide research report; or iii. make 'buy/sell/hold' recommendation; or iv. give price target; --- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Niftyviews.com" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to stockresearcher+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
[www.niftyviews.com:25744] Nifty Closed The Nov Exp Down By Over 8% Amid Strong USD, Concerns Of Slower Economic Activity & Political Chaos For Demonetization And Lingering Tensions At LOC---What’s Ne
or the real estate transactions, where even “political black money” is involved. Thus urgent tax reform may be the need of the hour, despite it may be a legacy issue as India is a high cost economy. Otherwise, the generation of “unaccounted” money may not be stopped and on the other side, a business & profession may no9t be viable at all after paying full taxes. But considering the overall scenario of the fiscal deficit combined for both centre & the states, the required tax reforms may also be an illusion. The proposed multiple GST rates are also high as states are not ready for any compromise on the overall revenue. Thus, in this demonetization fiasco, big fish may have already escaped, but the vast ordinary poor & uneducated citizens, having little digital technology are suffering immensely without any fault of their own, which may put NAMO into a more serious political risk in 2019 general election. In 2014, NAMO came to power on the basis of a strong leader unlike his predecessor (puppet??) and on the perception of crusade against corruptions and more development & employment. Now, the apparent lack of employment may have forced NAMO to play the “corruption” card ahead of series of state and general election. But the poor implementation of this “corruption” card (demonetization) intended for the “poor” may backfire in the days ahead. *In that scenario of political risk in India, Nifty may be even breach 6800 level for the 6300 zone, from where this 2-nd leg of this “NAMO Rally” has started.* <https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-p2roHDTF4sk/WDcErF5bVlI/Jko/u8QswYoz8EgH9rzWWGc1n1ydsaAOlC6jgCLcB/s1600/SGX-NF-PATTERN-24-11-2016.png> SGX-NF -- Thanks & Regards, Asis Ghosh -- Kindly email stock reports at STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com For sharing knowledge -- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE. http://www.niftyviews.com/ Disclaimer :- "The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on their individual experience and perceptions and to share information with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members in investment decisions as equity investment is a risky venture.The administrator of www.Niftyviews.com just provide a platform for the authors to express their opinion and take no guarantee for the genuineness of the same."ANY member of this forum doesnt prepare or publish any research report; or ii. provide research report; or iii. make 'buy/sell/hold' recommendation; or iv. give price target; --- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Niftyviews.com" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to stockresearcher+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
[www.niftyviews.com:25745] Nifty May Open Flat Supported By Positive Global Cues (Japan/US) In A Holiday Thinned Market; But May Be Under Continuing Pressure Amid Surge In USD And Demonetization Led D
*Watch 8000-7920* & 8050-8090* Zone In NF* *Market Mantra: 25/11/2016 (08:30)* As Par early SGX indication, Nifty Fut (Dec) may open around 8030 (+20 points) after overnight rally in US stock Futs and morning positive Asian cues. Nikkei-225 (Japan) is trading strong as a result of weaker Yen. In the morning, USDJPY gained more strength after Japanese CPI disappoints. Also, US stock Futs are trading at life time high as “Trump Rally” continues amid hopes of more fiscal spending & tax cuts, which may both spur US GDP & corporate earnings growth along with surge inflation & more job creation. As USD is getting stronger, almost all the EM & Asian currencies are under pressure; but weaker Yen & Yuan are making both Japanese & Chinese market stronger as both the economies are primarily export oriented. Having said that, Chinese Yuan are trading now around 6.95 and any further devaluation towards 7.25 may cause significant global headwinds for the risk assets as seen in 2015. Although, India, as a domestic consumption story with little contribution of export on the overall GDP of the country, may be insulated partly from any real global shocks, consistent USD strength may cause significant fund outflow from the FPI(s). USDINR is expected to rally towards 71 level despite RBI intervention on the divergence of USDINR bond yield spreads, interest rate differentials and probable out flow of around $16 bln (FCNR & FCCB redemptions) in the coming days. Also, the present scenario of both short & long term impact of demonetization and “war on black money” on the Indian GDP, domestic consumption and corporate earnings recovery may have made FII(s) jittery about the domestic market. As a result of demonetization led political chaos and “war of words” may also delay the final passage of GST bill and implementation of the same from April’17 and in that scenario, because of series of state elections, GST roll out in Sep’17 may be also looking doubtful. Eventually, GST may be also postponed until 2019 general election. The domestic market sentiment may be also affecting due to ongoing tensions at LOC (Pak) in J&K, which may turn into serious all out war at any point of time due to domestic pressure & political compulsions of both the countries. *Technically, NF has t sustain over 8050* area for further rebound towards 8090*-8160 & 8210-8290* for the day (under mild to extreme bullish scenario).* *On the other side, sustaining below 8000* zone, NF may further fall towards 7960-7920 & 7880-7810* area for the day (under mild to extreme bear case scenario).* *Similarly, BNF (18392) has to sustain over 18450* area for 18600*-18760 & 18850-19070* zone for the day (under mild to extreme bull case scenario).* *On the other side, sustain below 18350* zone, BNF may further fall towards 18200*-17950 & 17750*-17450 area for the day (under mild to extreme bear case scenario).* <https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-KS8I0dw6xiE/WDe1D1AZXOI/JlE/qwH5lfGg-lAufSyQDFC5dt056kMEcqhgwCLcB/s1600/SGX-NF-25-11-2016.png> SGX-NF <https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-Ip1uhHVt-mE/WDe1MK89qsI/JlI/hS0ApaUy6OkPwJBIPrRi9iUHybFVBpejACLcB/s1600/BNF-24-11-2016.png> BNF -- Thanks & Regards, Asis Ghosh -- Kindly email stock reports at STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com For sharing knowledge -- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE. http://www.niftyviews.com/ Disclaimer :- "The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on their individual experience and perceptions and to share information with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members in investment decisions as equity investment is a risky venture.The administrator of www.Niftyviews.com just provide a platform for the authors to express their opinion and take no guarantee for the genuineness of the same."ANY member of this forum doesnt prepare or publish any research report; or ii. provide research report; or iii. make 'buy/sell/hold' recommendation; or iv. give price target; --- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Niftyviews.com" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to stockresearcher+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
[www.niftyviews.com:25749] ifty Soared By More Than 100 Points In An Oversold Market As USD Retreat On The Back Of Falling US Bond Yields & Heavy RBI Intervention (?) And Closed The Volatile Week Mark
qual. Another probability is that, Govt may introduce some kind of direct banking transaction tax for this “undeclared” cash deposits and make an instant windfall gain. But, in that scenario, pubic trust on the banking system & currency may be also crashed and it may invite a huge political backlash also. Also, simple rate cut by the banks/RBI may not work well for the economy as there is lack of sufficient demand and bank credit. Govt has to create an environment of more demand in the formal economy and for that appropriate job creation may be vital and quite challenging too. Another point is that because of this demonetization led chaos & cash crunch on the ground level, food inflation has increased significantly, primarily due to demand & supply mismatch, despite favourable seasonal factor. If such condition of acute cash crunch persists for another 3 months, in the ground level, where digital economy does not work, then this incremental food inflation may become another political headwind for the Govt/BJP in the forthcoming series of state elections. Thus, higher food inflation, higher combined fiscal deficits & CAD, capital out flows, implementation of GST, EU political risks and continuing tensions at PAK-LOC may be some of the headwinds for the Indian economy in the near term despite expected tailwinds of “windfall gain” & huge fiscal stimulus as a result of demonetization and overall collateral damage to the economy may be much more than the intended benefit. <https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-5rfwkWK5CX0/WDhMR3tT9JI/Jlg/RHvUylDdRBIHNzP5ubn-ovIwBiu4jzm5gCLcB/s1600/SGX-NF-PATTERN-25-11-2016.png> SGX-NF -- Thanks & Regards, Asis Ghosh -- Kindly email stock reports at STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com For sharing knowledge -- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE. http://www.niftyviews.com/ Disclaimer :- "The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on their individual experience and perceptions and to share information with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members in investment decisions as equity investment is a risky venture.The administrator of www.Niftyviews.com just provide a platform for the authors to express their opinion and take no guarantee for the genuineness of the same."ANY member of this forum doesnt prepare or publish any research report; or ii. provide research report; or iii. make 'buy/sell/hold' recommendation; or iv. give price target; --- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Niftyviews.com" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to stockresearcher+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
[www.niftyviews.com:25751] Nifty May Be Under Renewed Pressure After Opening Lower (-0.50%) Amid Negative Global Cues & Weekend Surprise (?) Action Of RBI To Suck Excess Liquidity From The Banks As A
*Watch 8060*-8000 & 8115-8155* Zone In Nifty Fut (Dec)* *Market Mantra: 28/11/2016 (08:30)* As par early SGX indication, Nifty Fut (Dec) may open around 8080 (-39 points) following negative global cues & weekend surprise of RBI action to suck up excess liquidity from the Indian banking system as a result of demonetization led huge inflow of deposits in old currency notes. USD is under some pressure as market may have some second thought about reality of “Trumponomics” and its design (funding, ultimate congressional approval etc) and weekend “Black Friday” retail sales figure. Technically, USD was also in very overbought condition and that may be one of the prime reason also for the correction. Oil was also under pressure in the late weekend trading as a Saudi Arabia may not attend the Vienna meeting at all amid continuing OPEC squabbling. Saudi Arabia now sees natural Oil rebalancing in 2017 as demand may increase significantly from the US. Back to home, when India was debating about effectiveness about the demonetization, which is fast turning into a full blown political battle, RBI made CRR 100% for the incremental bank deposits in an unexpected (?) move on the weekend. This may suck up liquidity for around Rs.3.50 lac cr from the banks and may be significantly negative for their NIM, as they have already lowered some of their deposit rates and MCLR. Although, this move of the RBI may make the GSEC bond yields higher and INR may also gain some strength today supported by falling dollar index, overall excess liquidity with the Indian banks mat also reduce dramatically. Apart from RBI repo rate cut, savings/deposit rate and overall liquidity in the system may be the other prime factors for the banks to transmit incrementally lower rate into the economy (borrowers). With this RBI move to suck up excess liquidity in the banking system to make it “neutral” as par its monetary policy, benefit of lower rate in the economy may be shattered in the near future. As a direct fall out of demonetization and “war on black money”, informal lending & credit system with the Indian economy has virtually collapsed, especially at the bottom level of rural economy (agriculture, SME etc) and under the scenario of less banking activities of lending & borrowing in the economy by the banks may be worse. *Technically, NF (8080) has to sustain over 8115* zone for further rebound towards 8155-8185* & 8210-8260* area for the day (bull case scenario).* *On the other side, sustaining below 8060-8045* area, NF may further fall towards 8000*-7960 & 7915*-7880 and further 7805-7675* zone for the day (mild to extreme bear case scenario).* *Similarly BNF (18553) has to sustain above 18650* area for any up move towards 18750*-18900 & 19050*-19300 zone for the day (bullish case scenario).* *On the other side, sustaining below 18400* zone, BNF may further fall towards 18200*-18100 & 17850-17700* area for the day (bear case scenario).* <https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-GzdAS-qtN3c/WDuo2J1JtsI/Jmo/nPpVnWwSotQFKlV6AShwKRxbLaARAAsEACLcB/s1600/SGX-NF-28-11-2016.png> SGX-NF * * -- Thanks & Regards, Asis Ghosh -- Kindly email stock reports at STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com For sharing knowledge -- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE. http://www.niftyviews.com/ Disclaimer :- "The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on their individual experience and perceptions and to share information with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members in investment decisions as equity investment is a risky venture.The administrator of www.Niftyviews.com just provide a platform for the authors to express their opinion and take no guarantee for the genuineness of the same."ANY member of this forum doesnt prepare or publish any research report; or ii. provide research report; or iii. make 'buy/sell/hold' recommendation; or iv. give price target; --- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Niftyviews.com" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to stockresearcher+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
[www.niftyviews.com:25757] Nifty Closed Almost Flat After A Bout Of Volatile Consolidation (distribution?) Supported By FMCG, Pharma & Telecoms; But Dragged By Banks Following RBI Sucks Up Excess Liqu
dent for the banks to take a much smaller interest loss now than to take huge capital loss later as ultimately, the demonetization led excess deposits may start to withdraw by a significant portion, when normalcy is expected to return around Q4FY17. As par last week figure, the net surplus in demonetization led deposits may be around Rs.5.3 lakh cr against available G-SECS of around Rs.7.5 lakh cr, that RBI can offer to banks. There is also significant shortage of MSS bonds with RBI, but they have taken some steps in this direction also today, although, in a very small amount compared to the overall liquidity of the system. Another reason may be that because of huge liquidity in the system after demonetization, USDINR is also appreciating as bond market is also assuming prompt rate cut by the RBI. By this CRR action to suck up the excess liquidity from the Indian banking system to keep it as “liquidity neutral” as par RBI monetary policy, RBI may want to sent a signal to the market that it may not be in a hurry to cut repo rates in Dec’16. Thus, in an uncertain economic environment after the demonetization, RBI may focus more on the prudent risk management in the Indian banking system (financial stability) and Fed’s actual rate action in Dec’16 along with any future guidance, rather than a simple inflation/growth dynamics. The risk of a sharp GDP decline in the near term may prompt RBI to be on an accommodative stance in the short term and may even indicate a rate cut of 0.25-0.50% in Feb-Apr’17 & H2FY18, but in Dec’16, RBI may stand pat to wait for the actual impact of demonetization on the broader economy, inflation curve and Fed’s stance. RBI may give more focus on “productive & agri loans” (rural economy) by the banks and full transmission of the previous rate cuts (1.75%) as there is no lack of liquidity in the system, especially with the PSBS after the demonetization. As hopes of any rate cut in Dec’16 has virtually doomed as a result of “Owlish” Patel (RBI), banks and rate sensitive stocks may react more in the market, which is already under tremendous pressure as a result of demonetization and declared “war on black money”. Globally, US bond yields as well as US EQ market was under pressure as on weekend, there was a report that some of the election losers including Clinton may go for a recounting in some of the areas of recently concluded US elections. Although, chances are very slim for an overturn of the US election result, some of the tweets made by Trump in response to this overall recounting episodes and winning of popular votes in favour of Clinton by more than 2 mln votes may have made the market jittery about the mental stability of Trump as a US President. Trump tweeted that, Clinton received 3 mln illegal votes in an unprecedented manner without any supporting proof as an incoming President which may be unheard in US politics so far. His tweet about Castro after the death on weekend was also a new low in US politics. Thus the present “Twitter Tantrum” from the President-elect Trump may be seen as an act of immaturity/inexperience as a Political leader and if such immaturity continues as “President” after taking charge of the Oval office, it may cause significant disruptions in the US as well as global financial markets, because market may assume that “President Trump” will try to keep at least half of his election rhetoric as “Candidate Trump”. Already, “America First” notion is taking its toll for the Indian IT companies as they are taking more “Americans”, which may cost them incrementally higher. In the last few weeks the “Trump Tantrum” has caused significant melt down in the EM currencies including India. Now, after taking charge, any immature “Twitter Tantrum” may also cause more headwinds for the “risk assets”. Global market may also be on the edge this week with Italy & Austria are going for referendum/poll and given the recent rise in nationalistic politics after “Brexit” & “Trumpism”, EU politics, especially France (Frexit?) may also pose greater risks for the global as well as the Indian market. Thus, global market, especially US market may correct significantly as a result of US & EU political risks and hawkish Fed, despite talk of “Trumponomics”. Apart from Dec’16 rate hike, Fed may guide at least two rate hikes in 2017 (June & Dec). *Technically, SPF (2207) need to sustain over 2215 for a near term target of 2235-2260; otherwise it will come down again towards 2190-2145 in the days ahead.* <https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-2lfAtpeIcIA/WDxLZfqRDdI/JnA/rviTd9_WuIIDnN6tn64sNwgOdUaKndV0wCLcB/s1600/SGX-NF-PATTERN-28-11-2016.png> SGX-NF <https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-rOEno9exCJo/WDxLb25GrVI/JnE/Ao_34_4xJLgRpymSsccRcNge_d6MW0nWACLcB/s1600/SPF-28-11-2016.png> SPF -- Thanks & Regards, Asis Ghosh -- Kindly email stock reports at STOCK
[www.niftyviews.com:25758] Nifty May Open Flat In Another Day Of Consolidation/Distribution (?) Amid Tepid Global Cues And Headwinds Of Demonetization Which May Be Fast Turning Out Into A VDS/Amnesty
*Watch 8185*-8260 & 8115*-8040* Zone In Nifty Fut (Dec)* *Market Mantra: 29/11/2016 (08:30)* Nifty Fut (Dec) may open around 8150 (+7 points), almost flat following tepid global cues as “Trump Rally” fades amid drops in USD & continuing OPEC squabbling about Wednesday’s meeting for a credible oil production cut/freeze. US bond yields were also under mild pressure after vote recounting possibility in some of the constituents and subsequent controversial tweets by the President-Elect Trump and some concern of tepid “Black Friday” sales beside technical correction & profit booking in the weekend holiday thinned market. But, whatever may be the reason technically, unless & until DXY does not sustain below 100, this “Trump Tantrum” may continue for the EM currencies and along with that the impending EU political risk may be one of the headwinds for the EM as well as Indian market. Also, market may watch “Trump’s Twitter Handle” more closely in the coming days as this may be another cause of instability as an immature political leader (US-Prez). Globally, all eyes will be on the host of Fed speakers, Friday’s US NFP and Sunday referendum in Italy. Any “NO” vote in the Italian constitution referendum may be seen as another tacit approval of “divorce” from the EU and in that scenario, the present PM (Renzi) may also quit, which may threaten political stability of Italy as well as the whole EU universe. The very concept of EU may also be doomed with the ongoing “Brexit” and any “Italyexit” & also “Frexit” (France may be the next candidate for a nationalistic politics and exit from EU). Globally, China market is showing good strength on the back of Yuan devaluation (helpful for exports) and upbeat industrial profits. But, PBOC may be also tightening its loose monetary policy in the coming days. Similarly, Japan may be also a beneficiary of its recent currency devaluation (Yen) as a result of “Trumpism” in a matter of few weeks, which BOJ failed to do in the last one year despite its 24/7 printing press going in full throttle (QQE). But, India being a domestic consumption story, INR devaluation may of little help for the broader economy. Moreover, a strong USD may have several headwinds for the import oriented Indian economy, beside concerns of large FII outflow, which is already happening. The present demonetization led surge in bank deposits and its negative effect on the bond market (lower bond yields) may be another cause of FPI exit, which RBI is trying to address by sucking the excess liquidity from the banks as 100% CRR. RBI & Govt is now also trying to do its best to contain the damage by tweaking the demonetization rule almost every other day. The latest step of the Govt to declare the “black money” as 50% VDS or 85% forced declaration may be another step towards an amnesty, where no questions may be asked for “source” of this “black/unaccounted money”. *Technically, NF (8150), has to sustain over 8185*-8210 area for further rebound towards 8240/8260*-8335/8375 zone for the day (bullish case scenario).* *On the other side, sustaining below 8160-8115* area, NF may further fall towards 8060/8040*-8000 and 7940-7900* zone for the day (bear case scenario).* *Similarly BNF (18370), has to sustain over 18200* area; otherwise it may further fall towards 18100-17850* & 17700*-17450 zone for the day (bear case scenario).* *On the other side, for any strength, BNF needs to sustain over 18450* area for 18600*-18750 & 18850-19050* zone for the day (bullish case scenario).* <https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-t5HT1OQpWbo/WDz6v9bH-fI/Jnk/nQNuDlBUud8xX0acKmE70LbsjRla8Ly5gCLcB/s1600/SGX-NF-29-11-2016.png> SGX-NF <https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-e1uRnQx3iHc/WDz6xzY_MhI/Jno/3HO4dsZJGxU3eP79h4HMPSaLVPUDHNsOACLcB/s1600/BNF-PATTERN-28-11-2016.png> BNF -- Thanks & Regards, Asis Ghosh -- Kindly email stock reports at STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com For sharing knowledge -- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE. http://www.niftyviews.com/ Disclaimer :- "The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on their individual experience and perceptions and to share information with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members in investment decisions as equity investment is a risky venture.The administrator of www.Niftyviews.com just provide a platform for the authors to express their opinion and take no guarantee for the genuineness of the same."ANY member of this forum doesnt prepare or publish any research report; or ii. provide research report; or iii. make 'buy/sell/hold' recommendation; or iv. give price target; --- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Niftyviews.com" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails fro
[www.niftyviews.com:25764] Nifty Closed In Mild Positive After Late Day Selling & Well Off The High In A Cautious Tone After Fitch Downgrades Indian GDP By 0.5% (FY-17) As A Result Of Demonetization L
CPLv9JQI/JoI/YKAC0yjcSgQtnXm7xW-zi0shuiQGA96WwCLcB/s1600/SGX-NF-DC-29-11-2016.png> SGX-NF <https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-qoHFIzdmPQw/WD2CRWsFl-I/JoM/jBJ3jQGrMXwvvL4aj0evPOJGZkeKCGl0ACLcB/s1600/SGX-NF-DC-MA-29-11-2016.png> -- Thanks & Regards, Asis Ghosh -- Kindly email stock reports at STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com For sharing knowledge -- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE. http://www.niftyviews.com/ Disclaimer :- "The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on their individual experience and perceptions and to share information with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members in investment decisions as equity investment is a risky venture.The administrator of www.Niftyviews.com just provide a platform for the authors to express their opinion and take no guarantee for the genuineness of the same."ANY member of this forum doesnt prepare or publish any research report; or ii. provide research report; or iii. make 'buy/sell/hold' recommendation; or iv. give price target; --- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Niftyviews.com" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to stockresearcher+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
[www.niftyviews.com:25765] Nifty May Open Flat Amid Tepid Global Cues Marked By Skepticism About Any Real OPEC Agreement; Domestically, Will The Latest VDS/Amnesty Scheme For The “Black Money” Out Of
*Watch 8210-8275 & 8060-7995 Zone In Nifty Fut (Dec), Which May Open Around 8180* *Market Mantra: 30/11/2016 (08:30)* As par early SGX indication, Nifty Fut (Dec) may open around 8180 (+8 points) following tepid global cues amid growing skepticism over any meaningful OPEC cut or even freeze agreement later in the day. In the latest OPEC “circus”, although Iran & Iraq has softened their stance, it’s may not be enough for the Saudis to even attend the meeting. *Technically, Crude Oil (45.41) may fall significantly below 42 in case of “no agreement” and may crash towards 32 in the days ahead.* In case of any “freeze” agreement, it may bounce towards 48 and if there is any “cut” agreement it may even reach 58-62 levels, depending upon the fine print/feasibility of the “cut” agreement. Although, yesterday‘s US economic data came above expectation, specially GDP & consumer confidence, but the USD was not able to rally much. Some of the reasons may be continuous Twitter rhetoric by the “President Trump” and lack of any clear cut guidance for 2017 rate action by Fed as of now (Forward guidance). Market may be assuming that there may be another pause of Fed rate hike for at least six months after Dec’16. Back to home, it seems that the demonetization and “war on black money” has now turned into another VDS/Amnesty scheme and “digital economy” by the Govt after keeping the entire nation on banking queues for more than 20 days. As par latest RBI data, almost 60% of the banned HDICN has entered into the banking system as of now. As par various reports, another 20% may be now with the banking chests and the rest 10-20% may be further deposited with the banks to get it converted. Thus, the much speculated & expected windfall gain of Rs.3.5 lakh cr by the Govt as a result of similar reduction of RBI liabilities may not hold good, as almost all the HDICN(s) will return to the banks. In any case, it should not be accounted as “profit” of RBI as rightly pointed out by one of the former RBI Gov. But, the real question is how much will it help for the Indian economy/consumption story in the long term, even if 25% of the so called “black/unaccounted money” gets into system officially after passing so much hurdles of IT scrutiny? *Technically, NF (LTP: 8180) has to sustain over 8195-8210* zone for further rebound towards 8250-8275* & 8310-8375* area for the day (bull case scenario).* *On the other side, sustaining below 8160*-8135 area, NF may further fall towards 8095-8065/8040* & 7995-7945* & 7915-7880* zone for the day (bear case scenario).* *Similarly, BNF (LTP: 18314), has to sustain above 18450 area for further rally towards 18650-18750* & 18950-19050* zone for the day (bullish case scenario).* *On the other side, sustaining below 18300 zone, BNF may further fall towards 18200*-18100 & 17950*-17850 & 17750* area for the day (bear case scenario).* <https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-l5UjAVvqjwA/WD5MEvBFSAI/Joc/R1688Um-wYQFrKh9w2a-syEc_qWFgVesgCLcB/s1600/SGX-NF-30-11-2016.png> SGX-NF -- Thanks & Regards, Asis Ghosh -- Kindly email stock reports at STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com For sharing knowledge -- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE. http://www.niftyviews.com/ Disclaimer :- "The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on their individual experience and perceptions and to share information with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members in investment decisions as equity investment is a risky venture.The administrator of www.Niftyviews.com just provide a platform for the authors to express their opinion and take no guarantee for the genuineness of the same."ANY member of this forum doesnt prepare or publish any research report; or ii. provide research report; or iii. make 'buy/sell/hold' recommendation; or iv. give price target; --- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Niftyviews.com" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to stockresearcher+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
[www.niftyviews.com:25771] Nifty “Soared” By Almost 1% Amid Month End Rebalancing, Positive Global Cues Supported By “Almost Done” Deal For OPEC Cut, Drop In USDINR And Easing (?) Of Demonetization Ef
e (black money), one should have to pay around 60-80% of the amount and there will be no VDS unlike the last one ended at Sep’16 (45% tax). Now, after the demonetization, Govt may have realized the reality of various loopholes available in the system, whereby any one can convert the black money (old currency notes) with 20-40% “handling charge” into new currency notes/gold/foreign currency (USD) etc without even going to banks. Another factor may be also that with the “war on black money approach”, Govt will lose both tax revenue and private consumption in the long term. Thus, Govt after realizing the ground situation may be softened its stance suddenly after making the whole India standing in banking queues for over 20 days. Tomorrow and next few days may be more vital for the Govt to test the patience of its citizens, when most of the people will approach banks/ATMS for withdrawing some cash from their monthly salary. Ground situation for the MSME sector may be more serious as most of them deals in cash (both employer & employee). The situation may be of real challenge for the banks also as there were lack of adequate cash in the system. Another point may be that of political risk for the Govt as fallout of this demonetization fiasco. Also, the manner in which the amendments for the latest VDS has been passed by the Govt in the LS yesterday (money bill, which does not require RS passage at all), we can expect least co-operation in passage of other vital bills like full GST in this winter session as there may be total “wash out”. It seems that overall strategy behind this sudden demonetization just before vital winter session of the Parliament and series of state elections may be more political rather than economical & counter terror financing, fake notes etc. Govt & BJP is well aware of the political as well as economical risks for the demonetization effort, but despite that it had chosen the risk path. Why? One of the answers may be that huge unemployment or under employment issues of the vast Indian job seekers daily entering into the job market. As par some report, it’s around 33000 per day or 12 lakh young job seekers entering into the job market annually. As of now, Govt & private sector may be generating around 5-6 lakh fresh jobs per year. Thus, there may be above 50% gap in the demand & supply dynamics of the Indian job market and this may be the main issue, which NAMO may face in the forthcoming state & general election. Thus, the politics of demonetization, “war on black money” and “surgical strikes at LOC/POK”, which may help to divert the attention of the large young pool and public from the real issues of the economy to the theme of nationalism etc. Another point may be that after this demonetization led political chaos, winter session of the Parliament may also be completely washed out and final GST bill may not be passed at all. Thus, there will be no pressure on the Govt to implement it from Aprii’17 or even by Sep’2017 as it will take significant time for the economy to be normal from the present demonetization shock and in that scenario, GST may be implemented only after 2019 general election to avoid another “man made” economic disruption just before series of state & general election. In the way, there may be also less risk for the probable GST related immediate inflationary impact on the economy and voters and no one can also blame the Govt/BJP and at the same time, united oppositions may be also viewed as “disruptive for development”. Thus, GST and other major reforms like land & labour bill may be continue to be a political game for all the parties in the foreseeable future and rating agencies are right in their approach that mere passage of reform bills is not sufficient for a rating upgrade; it requires meaningful implementation and intended result on the economy as well. <https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-RpNAIxOk0EQ/WD7uXZDVevI/Jow/t0X8dbQTsAIDjvUDQrLoCbWX7LVMfnzhACLcB/s1600/SGX-NF-PATTERN-30-11-2016.png> SGX-NF -- Thanks & Regards, Asis Ghosh -- Kindly email stock reports at STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com For sharing knowledge -- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE. http://www.niftyviews.com/ Disclaimer :- "The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on their individual experience and perceptions and to share information with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members in investment decisions as equity investment is a risky venture.The administrator of www.Niftyviews.com just provide a platform for the authors to express their opinion and take no guarantee for the genuineness of the same."ANY member of this forum doesnt prepare or publish any research report; or ii. provide research report; or iii. make 'buy/sell/hold' recommendation; or iv. give price target; --- You
[www.niftyviews.com:25773] Nifty May Open Sideways Following Flat Global Cues; All Eyes May Be On The India Nov Mfg PMI & Auto Sales Data Today To Gauze The Real “Damage” Of The Economy As A Result Of
*Watch 8275-8375 & 8230-8130 Zone In Nifty Fut (Dec), Which May Open Around 8260* *Market Mantra: 01/12/2016 (08:30)* As par early SGX indication Nifty Fut (Dec) may open around 8260 (+6 points), almost flat following tepid global cues after OPEC led overnight oil rally of around 10%. Japan (Nikkei) trading strong in Asian session following more depreciation in Yen. After eight years, OPEC yesterday penned some deal to cut production by 1.2 mpd daily by Jan’17 against some market expectation of 1.4 mpd. As the market was extremely short on the assumption of no deal, this news, which also came early yesterday, caused massive short covering and subsequently oil rallied by almost 10% in a day. Going forward, market will keenly watch the actual implementation of this deal as in the past there were several incidences of mistrust among various OPEC nations. Also, oil above $50, may induce more supplies from US and together with Trump’s rhetoric about “Oil independence” of America, we may see more US oil production and less import for the US. Thus, it may not so easy for the oil to have an optimum demand supply dynamics (rebalancing) even if one can take the present OPEC deal on its face value. On the other side, higher oil above $50-60 on a consistent basis can also put pressure on the oil importing economy such as US, China & also India. *In any way, technically Crude Oil (LTP: 49.53), now has to sustain above 50-53 area for further rally towards 62.50-70.50; else it may fall again towards 47-44.50 & 42 in an classic example of “buy the news & sell the fact”.* Although, theoretically, Oil & USD should have inverse co-relation, yesterday USD strengthen on the contrary as a result of above estimate US economic data and upbeat Fed Beige book. All eyes will be on the US NFP job data tomorrow to have an idea about US economic strength to withstand 2-3 rate hikes in 2017 after Dec’16. The blockbuster ADP job data yesterday & the Chicago PMI index has helped the USD significantly yesterday, despite rally in Oil. Back to home, Indian market today keenly watch Nov Markit Mfg PMI (estimate: 52; prior: 54.4) and monthly auto sales data to have an idea about extent of real damage to the consumption of Indian economy as a result of demonetization led disruptions. Market will also watch the ongoing political battle in the Parliament and the expected banking chaos on the pay week for its next trigger. *Technically, NF has to sustain above 8275-8295* area for 8335*-8375/95 & 8425*-8445 zone for the day (under bullish case scenario).* *On the other side, sustaining below 8250-8230* area, NF may further fall towards 8180-8130* & 8060-8000* zone for the day (under bear case scenario).* *Similarly, BNF (LTP: 18682) need to sustain above 18750* area for further rebound towards 18975-19075* & 19200-19300* zone for the day (under bullish case scenario).* *On the flip side, sustaining below 18600* area, BNF may further fall towards 18500-18330* & 18200*-18100 zone for the day (under bear case scenario).* <https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-IgEpMUt5TBQ/WD-dkqgG6KI/JpE/Om2Fo-yzFcsg4Qi0vnNVXVjLkNYAVbBdQCLcB/s1600/SGX-NF-01-12-2016.png> SGX-NF <https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-AcWKpIfCsLU/WD-dlnHopSI/JpI/Zo-26KBFZGc3CEw0zqpMbcXXLxmKibi-ACLcB/s1600/BNF-30-11-2016.png> BNF -- Thanks & Regards, Asis Ghosh -- Kindly email stock reports at STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com For sharing knowledge -- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE. http://www.niftyviews.com/ Disclaimer :- "The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on their individual experience and perceptions and to share information with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members in investment decisions as equity investment is a risky venture.The administrator of www.Niftyviews.com just provide a platform for the authors to express their opinion and take no guarantee for the genuineness of the same."ANY member of this forum doesnt prepare or publish any research report; or ii. provide research report; or iii. make 'buy/sell/hold' recommendation; or iv. give price target; --- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Niftyviews.com" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to stockresearcher+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
[www.niftyviews.com:25779] Nifty Snapped 4 Days Rally Amid Tepid Global Cues And Disappointing Domestic Mfg PMI, Q2 GDP & Slump In LCV/UV/Tractor Sales Despite Surge In PV/2-W Sales In Nov After Annou
Money (like PayTM).
The present R-JIO freebies may be great for the consumers, but may not
be good for the Reliance investors. It will be interesting to see, how
much tariff R-JIO can generate from its present pool of “free customers”
(almost whole India), once it starts giving service commercially.
Another factor is that due to present political deadlock and
Demonetization led disruptions; passage of final GST & implementation of
the same from April’17 looks very difficult and also may be impossible.
Naturally, Govt may say that it will implement the GST from Sep’17 for
the time being (already hinted by the FM few weeks ago).
But, considering series of state elections and 2019 general election,
for which ground preparation may be already started or will be at its
peak in late 2018, Govt may not risk taking another “political suicide”
as the present Demonetization “master stroke” may have already taken all
the “stamps, bails & the pitch”; there may not be any “pitch” left for
playing another “master stroke” in the foreseeable future.
**
*Indian market may not be discounted till now for a “No GST” till 2019
general election. *
Also, as par latest reports, an amount of around Rs.11.50 lakh cr has
been deposited with the banks in the old 500 & 1000 notes since
announcement of the Demonetization. It seems that as par the latest
trend, more than the estimated Rs.14.50 lakh cr may be deposited with
the banks till Dec-31 and with the RBI till March’17, especially after
the Govt announcement of another VDS/Amnesty scheme @50% tax (fake or
counterfeit notes entering into banking system as banks may got more
than the official circulation of the same by the RBI).
Govt may be hoping for a windfall gain for Rs.3.50-4.50 lakh cr as this
amount hoarded by the so called “idiot black money holders” may not be
returned into the system for fear of high taxes & prosecution. But the
same were not “thrown” at all to the “Ganges or Yamuna River” as
expected and instead may be already converted into new notes or will be
converted soon and contrary to the earlier perception, it may be a
liability of the RBI in its balance sheet, where an expenditure of
around Rs.1.50 lakh cr may have already incurred in the P&L A/C as a
result of the Demonetization, apart from the bank’s individual expenses,
which may be also huge.
Thus, overall collateral damage to the Indian economy may be more than
the expected benefit as a result of this Demonetization as 85% currency
note replacement at one “masterstroke” may not be so easy at one
“masterstroke”; rather than its now proving as “administrative
nightmare” in a country like India, where “cash is king” with very
little digital technology/education for most of the people.
As par various reports, only 6% of “black money” may be trashed into old
notes and the rest has already converted into other forms of financial
assets either in India or out of India. Only 0.02% of the people of
India may hold some types of “unaccounted/black money” and for that,
this Demonetization effort by the Govt may be an indication that Govt
believes all its citizens as some types of “crooks” despite its best
effort to divide Indian into a "rich" & "poor" class (with or without
black money).
As some analysts/economists are terming the present Demonetization as
“running an economy without oxygen” or “intentional bursting of a racing
car tyres” in the Indian context, the same may not be wrong at all
despite the current Demonetization might be turned virtually into
another VDS/Amnesty scheme as the Govt does not have any intentions for
the reform of “political donation” system in our country, where the
vicious cycle of corruption starts first and ends at the bottom of the
economy & /bureaucracy (more Governance & more corruption). The root
cause of the corruption (higher taxation & Governance) and specific
"patients" (black money holders) may be treated first rather than the
symptoms (old currency notes) & vast "healthy people" ("white money
holders")./
/It's also certain that the present chaos of Demonetization may be
fizzled out by next 3-6 months, but the long term effect on the Indian
consumption story may be prolonged for at least next 5 years as the
similar "surgical strike on black money" has demonstrated the same trend
in China. /
/
/
/
/
<https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-xuYB3zKzXtk/WEA3idAVAsI/Jpo/6MXChjvlzloFZS8G8PB4tc-B2WJEIIt-QCLcB/s1600/SGX-NF-PATTERN-01-12-2016.png>
/
/
/ SGX-NF/
--
Thanks & Regards,
Asis Ghosh
--
Kindly email stock reports at
STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com
For sharing knowledge
-- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE.
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Disclaimer :-
"The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on
their individual experience and percep
[www.niftyviews.com:25780] Nifty May Open & Stay Lower Amid Tepid Global Cues And Report Of Mixed Auto Sales Data & Demonetization Led Bank Deposits Almost Near 80% With A Month In Hand
*Market Mantra: 02/12/2016 (08:30)* *Is Demonetization A Total Failure, Where More Than Official Circulation Of Old Currency Can Enter The System?* *Watch 8195-8275 & 8130-8040 Zone In Nifty Fut (Dec), Which May Open Around 8155'* As par early SGX indication, Nifty Fut (Dec) may open around 8155 (-55 points) following tepid global cues in the Asian session. Overnight, US market was mixed with selling in techs (Nasdaq) and some visible stress in the “Trump Rally” with mixed economic data yesterday, where except, ISM Mfg PMI, all the other economic data came slightly lower than market estimate (auto sales, construction spending, initial jobless claims). Despite surging US bond yields, USD dropped yesterday may be because of mixed economic data and some market talk that going forward, ECB may indicate some bond buying tapering after extension of the current LTRO programme up to March’17 (EUR 500 bln). Also, current French president may not be a potential candidate for the next election may be influencing the EUR as he was very dovish along with impending Italy referendum on Sunday and other imminent EU political risks on the negative side. Globally, all eyes will be on the US NFP job data today in order to assess the core strength of US economy to withstand Dec’16 and further rate hikes in 2017. NFP estimate is around 175-180k; 4.9% unemployment rate; 0.2% hourly wage hike (MOM); but we may not be surprised, if NFP will come around 200k + as now there is no risk of market capitulation because of Dec’16 Fed rate hike (already discounted) and to “make up” the past few months of tepid job data; yesterday’s ADP blockbuster job data may help. Back to home, Indian market may be continuing under pressure for the Demonetization fiasco and economic disruptions. Market will keenly watch auto sales & other high frequency data to gauze the extent of real impact after Demonetization led business disruptions, which may continue for a least 3-6 months. Yesterday’s auto sales data was mixed as surge in PV & 4-W may come in on the back of “trashed black money on old currency” and 7-CPC induced liquidity. Also, as par reports almost 11.5 lakh cr of bank deposits has been made in old currency notes out of total official circulation of around Rs.14.5 lakh cr; i.e. almost 80% and already made the Govt target. But, from the ongoing trend, the gross deposits may exceed even the official circulation of Rs.14.5 lakh cr, especially after the announcement of VDS Amnesty scheme, which means that fake/counterfeit currency may be entering the system for making it “white” undermining the Govt effort of “war against black money”. *Technically, NF has to sustain above 8195-8225* area for further rebound towards 8275*-8295 & 8335*-8375 zone for the day (under bullish case scenario).* *On the other side, sustaining below 8130-8100* zone, NF may further fall towards 8060-8040* & 8000*-7950 and 7900-7880 area for the day (under bear case scenario).* *Similarly, BNF (LTP: 18478) has to sustain above 18300* area; otherwise it may further fall towards 18200*-18100 & 17950-17750* zone for the day (under bear case scenario).* *For any strength, BNF needs to trade above 18500* area for further rebound towards 18650-18800* & 18900-19050* zone for the day (under bear case scenario).* <https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-Gxjm19dDj-c/WEDvXZfTBWI/Jp4/YQ2-Uf5QvNY7QPGknP7WBgGPkJoiCnfsACLcB/s1600/SGX-NF-02-12-2016.png> SGX-NF <https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-hJiCGLdlGYk/WEDvaXSTKsI/Jp8/tiMctz-zmdc6MRazcgtEAcBBm0NGaBoQgCLcB/s1600/BNF-01-12-2016.png> **BNF -- Thanks & Regards, Asis Ghosh -- Kindly email stock reports at STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com For sharing knowledge -- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE. http://www.niftyviews.com/ Disclaimer :- "The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on their individual experience and perceptions and to share information with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members in investment decisions as equity investment is a risky venture.The administrator of www.Niftyviews.com just provide a platform for the authors to express their opinion and take no guarantee for the genuineness of the same."ANY member of this forum doesnt prepare or publish any research report; or ii. provide research report; or iii. make 'buy/sell/hold' recommendation; or iv. give price target; --- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Niftyviews.com" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to stockresearcher+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
[www.niftyviews.com:25783] Nifty May Open & Trade On A Cautious Note Amid Negative Global Cues (“NO” Italy Referendum) And Ongoing Domestic Concerns Of Demonetization & GST/Parliament Logjam
*Market Mantra: 05/12/2016 (08:30)* *Watch 8175-8210 & 8040-7990 Zone In Nifty Fut (Dec), Which May Open Around 8095* As par early SGX indication, Nifty Fut (Dec) may open around 8095 (-15 points), almost flat following negative global cues after an expected “NO” vote in the overnight Italian constitution referendum, which may force the PM there to “officially” tender his resignation tomorrow/shortly. But in Austria, right wing party (Anti EU) suffered a defeat quite surprisingly and in New Zealand, their PM resigned quite surprisingly. Though, there was no great turbulence in the “risk on” trade for the “expected” Italian referendum, all eyes will be on the EU market open in the afternoon. Resignation of Renzi may fuel significant political uncertainty not in Italy, but also in the whole EU universe, because “Anti EU” sentiment & Nationalism & Trade Protection may get momentum. In the short term, investors may also feel it quite risky to bail out the fragile Italian Banking system, specially Monte Parche. But, ECB may be also ready to flood the system with any required liquidity to avert a contaganion effect as always. Back to home, INR may also be under pressure as USD is gaining strength as a risk aversion and Friday’s NFP job numbers despite miss in wage growth. Although, sudden “surgical strike” on the black money (demonetization) is quite debatable, there may be no doubt that after the “surgery”, “patients” (general public) are quite suffering as normal remonetization may take at least 3-6 months more. GST may be also in the deadlock as there was no consensus over dual control mechanism in the GST council meet on Saturday and Govt may be also not so confident about April’17 rollout as time is running out (“Finger crossed”-FM). Double whammy of demonetization & GST for the domestic market may be also aggravated by the sad news of cardiac arrest of TN supremo (“Amma”) and in case of more bad news (death), political uncertainty in the state may increase multifold and that may be another reason for further GST logjam, which will be negative for the market also. Domestically, all eyes will be on the RBI day after tomorrow for the CRR & rate action, if any. *Technically, NF has to sustain over 8110 zone; otherwise it may further fall towards 8065/8040*-7990 & 7940-7890* area for the day (under bear case scenario).* *On the other side, for any strength, NF need to sustain over 8140 area for further rebound towards 8175/8195-8210* & 8265/8285*-8330 zone for the day (under bullish case scenario).* *Similarly, BNF (LTP: 18335) need to over 18200 zone; otherwise it may further fall towards 18100*-17950 & 17800*-17700 area for the day (bear case scenario).* *For any rebound, BNF needs to stay above 18450 area for further up move towards 18575-18650* & 18850-19050* zone for the day (under bullish case scenario).* <https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-EcRKGutNLaw/WETlLODbCmI/Jrc/DJTbrTxIHEwKM26TgmUbVoD8jj_ibPFKwCLcB/s1600/SGX-NF-05-12-2016.png> SGX-NF <https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-p_TQ44wqyio/WETlM24QliI/Jrg/gCMlwVEc8I4HNmaIdbiQSSQscirBMphbwCLcB/s1600/BNF-02-12-2016.png> BNF -- Thanks & Regards, Asis Ghosh -- Kindly email stock reports at STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com For sharing knowledge -- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE. http://www.niftyviews.com/ Disclaimer :- "The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on their individual experience and perceptions and to share information with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members in investment decisions as equity investment is a risky venture.The administrator of www.Niftyviews.com just provide a platform for the authors to express their opinion and take no guarantee for the genuineness of the same."ANY member of this forum doesnt prepare or publish any research report; or ii. provide research report; or iii. make 'buy/sell/hold' recommendation; or iv. give price target; --- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Niftyviews.com" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to stockresearcher+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
[www.niftyviews.com:25788] Nifty “Rallied” By Almost 64 Points Despite India Nov Service PMI Contracts Well Below “Boom/Bust Line” For Demonetization Amid Smart Recovery In EU Markets, Which Shrug Off
l risks”, where regional parties/leaders may try to fill up the vacuum for another effective national party except BJP. <https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-X7Rn-I8EJBw/WEWLLz9TUfI/Jrw/2O7qHiq9K78MWmNowtHenIWAudpH9hj5wCLcB/s1600/SGX-NF-PATTERN-05-12-2016.png> SGX-NF <https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-PjryPUFskO0/WEWLPWYWnqI/Jr0/m3S6MemuIo0keOH1jYSVDSIN3Jf9z_nowCLcB/s1600/EURUSD-PATTERN-05-12-2016.png> EURUSD -- Thanks & Regards, Asis Ghosh -- Kindly email stock reports at STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com For sharing knowledge -- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE. http://www.niftyviews.com/ Disclaimer :- "The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on their individual experience and perceptions and to share information with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members in investment decisions as equity investment is a risky venture.The administrator of www.Niftyviews.com just provide a platform for the authors to express their opinion and take no guarantee for the genuineness of the same."ANY member of this forum doesnt prepare or publish any research report; or ii. provide research report; or iii. make 'buy/sell/hold' recommendation; or iv. give price target; --- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Niftyviews.com" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to stockresearcher+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
[www.niftyviews.com:25789] Nifty May Be Range Bound Today Amid Flat Global Cues & Hopes Of RBI Cut; But Hawkish Fed And Demonetization Woes May Continue To Drag
*Market Mantra: 06/12/2016 (08:30)* *Sad Demise Of “Amma” May Create A Political Vacuum Not Only In TN, But Also In The Centre, Being The 3-rd Largest Party; GST May Be Further Delayed. * *Watch 8215-8275 & 8125-8060 Zone In Nifty Fut (Dec), Which May Open Around 8150.* As par early SGX indication, Nifty Fut (Dec) may open around 8150 (-23 points) following flat global cues. Overnight US market was strong (+0.24%) on the back of upbeat ISM Non-Mfg PMI, which came at 57.2 against estimate of 55.4 (prior: 54.8). USD was mixed amid falling US bond yields and DXY has broken the key technical level of 100.45 and now trading around 100. Any fall below 99 may further drag it towards 97-96 zone just weeks before Fed meet. In EU, Italian PM, who has offered his resignation yesterday after defeat in the constitutional referendum was asked by the President/Parliament to continue till the budget. But, Italian banking recapitalization effort may be hampered because of this ongoing political risks there (4 PM in the last 6 years!!). Looking ahead, all eyes will be on the ECB & Draghi’s comments day after tomorrow apart from Fed’s stance (forward guidance for 2017) on 16^th Dec as 0.25% rate hike is almost certain now. Back to home, apart from the demonetization related news flows, all eyes will be on the progress of GST. As par Kerala FM, dual control mechanism may not be passed by the GST council as there is no consensus due to “adamant” nature of both sides (states & centre) and also for the fact that the Centre does not have the required 2/3^rd majority in the GST council. Thus, as of now, there is little hope for the passage in the current Parliament session unless there is a consensus on the next meeting (10-11 Dec), but there is little hope. Market will be focused on RBI action tomorrow and hopes are now running very high for 0.50-1.00% repo rate cuts on the back of falling inflation and growth as a result of demonetization. *Technically, NF has to sustain over 8195-8215* area for further rebound towards 8275*-8335 zone for the day (under bullish case scenario).* *On the other side, sustaining below 8125*-8100 area, NF may further fall towards 8060/8040*-8000 & 7950-7900* zone for the day (under bear case scenario).* *Similarly, BNF (LTP: 18481) has to sustain over 18575-18650* area for further rally towards 18800-18975* & 19100*-19350 zone for the day (under bullish case scenario).* *On the other side, sustaining below 18450-18300* area, BNF may further fall towards 18200*-18100 & 17950-17850* zone for the day (under bear case scenario).* <https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-WNkm3szFoG8/WEY0td50eVI/JsQ/2EX5ORK7rP0VnxGJiFcN75PoIQyJQ6NgQCLcB/s1600/SGX-NF-06-12-2016.png> SGX-NF <https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-CX7PLkOygtw/WEY0vHFJ0GI/JsU/w9X3H7LKfAgDoG9ckmPRphW55VklVZNRwCLcB/s1600/BNF-05-12-2016.png> BNF -- Thanks & Regards, Asis Ghosh -- Kindly email stock reports at STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com For sharing knowledge -- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE. http://www.niftyviews.com/ Disclaimer :- "The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on their individual experience and perceptions and to share information with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members in investment decisions as equity investment is a risky venture.The administrator of www.Niftyviews.com just provide a platform for the authors to express their opinion and take no guarantee for the genuineness of the same."ANY member of this forum doesnt prepare or publish any research report; or ii. provide research report; or iii. make 'buy/sell/hold' recommendation; or iv. give price target; --- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Niftyviews.com" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to stockresearcher+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
[www.niftyviews.com:25794] Nifty Well Of The Day’s High Amid Flat Global Cues And Closed In A Cautious Tone Ahead Of RBI Policy Tomorrow
“gain” against the “pain” of the public for this whole idea of the demonetization to face the coming state elections. Thus overall collateral damage for the economy may be more than the expected benefit for this demonetization & “surgical strike on the black money”. The root cause of the “black/unaccounted money” should have been put under “surgery” first rather than the “symptoms/organs”. Govt perhaps need to do first the job of tax reforms with reasonable rates, fewer exemptions and less Governance to wipe out the basic causes of graft & black money creations. Even, the process of exchanging old HDCN from the banks are inviting massive corruptions and more over various rules & regulations in the IT Dept are also increasing their discretionary power, paving the way for more future corruptions (more governance, more corruptions). Globally, all eyes will be on the ECB (8^th Dec), OPEC meets tomorrow and developments in Italy. Yesterday’s record high OPEC production figure may be an indication that in reality supply gluts in oil may remain in 2017 too, despite some production cut agreements. Moreover, making agreement is one thing and implementation of the same is another thing, keeping in mind past fragile records of the OPEC members. In Italy, where banking NPA is now around $352 bln, the most fragile bank (Monte Parche) may face some tough times in the weekend, if a $5 bln bailout package is not worked out in the next few days. Thus, Italy may be falling fast into a full blown serious political as well as banking crisis in the coming days, despite market ignored the referendum result yesterday. The impending political & banking crisis may also force ECB/Draghi to continue its dovish monetary policy in the foreseeable future as Govt may be also scared for a fiscal/structural stimulus like “Trumponomics”. On the other hand, Fed is prepared to hike in Dec’16 and most probably will also hike at least twice in 2017. Thus, the divergent monetary policy between Fed & ECB may make USD more stronger across the board (DXY) and in that scenario, USDINR may gain more strength in the coming days,, if RBI choose an extremely dovish path. A strong USD may ensure more FPI(s) outflows and subsequent selling in Indian EQ & Bond markets, beside collateral damage to the economy. <https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-9xj7waGkLAo/WEbMnJ4S0xI/Jss/nFTvJxg3pe4U7bLaeYchFgHY7EBjzHCpACLcB/s1600/SGX-NF-PATTERN-06-12-2016.png> -- Thanks & Regards, Asis Ghosh -- Kindly email stock reports at STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com For sharing knowledge -- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE. http://www.niftyviews.com/ Disclaimer :- "The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on their individual experience and perceptions and to share information with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members in investment decisions as equity investment is a risky venture.The administrator of www.Niftyviews.com just provide a platform for the authors to express their opinion and take no guarantee for the genuineness of the same."ANY member of this forum doesnt prepare or publish any research report; or ii. provide research report; or iii. make 'buy/sell/hold' recommendation; or iv. give price target; --- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Niftyviews.com" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to stockresearcher+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
[www.niftyviews.com:25795] Nifty May Open Flat Following Neutral Global Cues; All Eyes Of “Dalal Street” Will Be On “Mint Street” Today—Will RBI Oblige?
*Market Mantra: 07/12/2016 (08:30)* *Considering The Imminent Risks Of Economic Slow Down And Lower Core Inflation Trajectory As A Result Of Demonetization, RBI May Oblige To Cut Repo Rate @0.25% Without Corresponding Adjustment Of Reverse Repo Rate To Help Banks; But 0.25% RBI Cut May Be Already Discounted By The Market Also* *Watch 8225-8275 & 8155-8110 Zone In Nifty Fut (Dec), Which May Open Around 8175* As par early SGX indication, Nifty Fut (Dec) may open around 8175 (+10 points), almost flat amid neutral global cues. Overnight US DOW Fut closed in another record amid mixed economic data yesterday (larger trade deficit and better than expected durable goods & factory orders) and despite continuous “Twitter Tantrum” by Trump, USD is not falling so great. Back to Dalal Street, all eyes will be on the “Mint Street” today, when RBI will unveil its policy decision at 14:00 hrs. Market consensus is 0.25% reo rate cut by the RBI this time, considering the real concerns about subdued growth and lower core inflation in Nov as a direct result of demonetization. Headline CPI may dip around 4% this time and with that, theoretically, RBI also have scope to reduce repo rate by 0.25% to 6% and thus make the RRR as around 2%, which is well within RBI’s new target. But, RBI may also “surprised” the street by not reducing the corresponding reverse repo rate, which stands at 5.75% as of now to provide banks some extra spread and thus may not tweaking the 100% CRR on the excess demonetization deposits. Having said that, although RBI is in great pressure to act this time of crisis from almost all quarters, RBI may also stay pat or may make some hawkish comments about future cuts (in Feb-Apr’17) for concerns of Hawkish Fed (strong USD), higher price trajectory of Oil as a result of OPEC cut, incomplete transmissions for previous rate cuts by the banks and the liquidity surge in Indian Banking System after demonetization. Any drastic rate cuts by the RBI or even very dovish monetary policy outlook may make INR weaker against USD in the days ahead, which may do more harm to the economy and the market. Although, core inflation may dip for the demonetization, food inflation might surged as a result of supply disruptions on the ground. This will make headline CPI more or less around 4.5% in the days ahead. As par some reports, Indian GDP is expected to contract by around 0.4% on an average every month for this demonetization, until full normalcy (remonetization) take place. Going by the present trend of supply of new currency notes and related issues of logistics & ATM recalibration, it may take another 3-6 months for full remonetization. Thus, H2FY17 GDP may suffer by at least 2% in the coming months. *Technically, NF has to sustain over 8195-8225* zone for further rebound towards 8275*-8330 & 8395*-8430 area for the day (under mild to extreme bullish case scenario).* *On the other side, sustaining below 8155*-8110 area, NF may further fall towards 8060*-8000 & 7940-7900* zone for the day (under mild to extreme bear case scenario).* *Similarly, BNF (LTP: 18478) has to sustain over 18650 area for further rally towards 18800-18950* & 19100*-19300 zone for the day (bullish case scenario).* *On the downside, sustaining below 18450 area, BNF may further fall towards 18350-18200* & 18100-17800* zone for the day (bear case scenario).* <https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-EycNPkPdBD0/WEeGngW8x4I/JtI/I5PGCcF6zEo_zCnGTgK8gcW3VRQYHdvfQCLcB/s1600/SGX-NF-07-12-2016.png> SGX-NF <https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-tCOHHta1Thg/WEeGoxJc6kI/JtM/FCBhYgBA9jgpxz_pKF0ZxnITqJoiJIungCLcB/s1600/BNF-06-12-2016.png> BNF -- Thanks & Regards, Asis Ghosh -- Kindly email stock reports at STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com For sharing knowledge -- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE. http://www.niftyviews.com/ Disclaimer :- "The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on their individual experience and perceptions and to share information with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members in investment decisions as equity investment is a risky venture.The administrator of www.Niftyviews.com just provide a platform for the authors to express their opinion and take no guarantee for the genuineness of the same."ANY member of this forum doesnt prepare or publish any research report; or ii. provide research report; or iii. make 'buy/sell/hold' recommendation; or iv. give price target; --- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Niftyviews.com" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to stockresearcher+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
[www.niftyviews.com:25805] Nifty Tumbled From The Day High By More Than 80 Points After RBI “Shocker” Of “No” Rate Cut
for the proposed fiscal spending. In the ideal scenario of “Trumponomics”, Fed is expected to hike at least twice in 2017. Thus the divergent policy between Fed & RBI may cause stronger USDINR towards 70-71 level by FY: 17-18, which may not be good for the overall Indian economy & the market. Another point is that, domestic market is not showing any fresh panic for the demonetization led “temporary” economic disruptions on the perception that almost all the so called “black money” is being deposited in the banking system, it will be eventually exchanged for “white money” and will be withdrawn or utilized for future consumption. But, the present stance of the Govt that simple bank deposit and withdrawal is not enough for the “black money” to be turned into “white” and one has to pay the required tax for it (at least 50% or 85%) as par VDS mode (voluntary or non-voluntary) and discretion of the IT AO. Most of the people are depositing their earlier undisclosed income in the banks on the perception that it will be taxed as 30%, if they show it as current year’s income. But, the law is not so simple, considering from previous similar case laws out of demonetization in 1946 & 1978. Thus one can expect more legal hurdles, more “surgical strikes on the black money”, chaos and consequent economic disruptions for not only the demonetization, but also for the Govt’s stance of “war on black money”, which has to be logically ended to its conclusion keeping in mind the “political compulsion” for the next series of state elections & 2019 general election, where “war against corruption for the benefit of the poor”, “digital India”, “cashless society and digital economy” might be the main theme along with “surgical strike at LOC”. <https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-IrW0m9It8_s/WEguWLFPCVI/AAAAJtk/5qydJ5XGD60ouXYu50H9RYVSfyOFAlBkwCLcB/s1600/SGX-NF-PATTERN-07-12-2016.png> SGX-NF -- Thanks & Regards, Asis Ghosh -- Kindly email stock reports at STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com For sharing knowledge -- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE. http://www.niftyviews.com/ Disclaimer :- "The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on their individual experience and perceptions and to share information with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members in investment decisions as equity investment is a risky venture.The administrator of www.Niftyviews.com just provide a platform for the authors to express their opinion and take no guarantee for the genuineness of the same."ANY member of this forum doesnt prepare or publish any research report; or ii. provide research report; or iii. make 'buy/sell/hold' recommendation; or iv. give price target; --- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Niftyviews.com" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to stockresearcher+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
[www.niftyviews.com:25806] Nifty May Open Gap Up On The Back Of Overnight Rallies In US Mkt & Return Of Normal CRR By The RBI On The Demonetized Excess Bank Liquidity(?); Will It Sustain ?
*Market Mantra: 08/12/2016 (08:30)* *All eyes will be on the banks after the CRR move (expected) and Govt’s thrusts on transmitting the previous RBI rate cuts amid surge in liquidity along with Pharma stocks after Trump’s veiled threat to bring down the prices in US.* *Watch 8225-8285 & 8195-8110 Zone In Nifty Fut (Dec), Which May Open Around 8205* As par early SGX indication, Nifty Fut (Dec) may open around 8205 (+68 points) following positive global cues amid another record closing of US stock Futs led by industrials & financial sectors. Although Pharma & biotech shares were under pressure due to Trump’s veiled threat to bring down the exorbitant drug prices there in US. Although, US bond yields & USD has dropped by some extent, Trump’s present style of functioning & tweets to resolve various issues, be it China or some rhetoric about investments in US by the companies may make the things different. As of now it seems that US may be the “best place in the world” for investments in 2017 onwards!!. Yesterday’s US JOLT data was above estimates; but fall in bond yields has made the USD lower across the board, except GBP, which is under some pressure as UK PM has agreed for a definitive time line (March’17) to invoke the Article-50 and start the exit negotiations (subjected to SC verdict on the Brexit issue). Globally, all eyes will be on the ECB today to have an idea of their future strategy. Back to home, all eyes will be on the banks after yesterday’s RBI “shocker” to leave the rate unchanged. Although, return of CRR normalcy for the excess demonetized banking deposits may be apparently positive for the banks, in the long term it may be negative for them as well as for the INR (Indian bond yields may fall). Also Govt’s stance that banks should transmit the previous incomplete rate cuts on the back of surging liquidity may also put pressure on their NIM. All eyes will be also on the ongoing political & scale of economic disruptions because of demonetization and progress of GST. *Technically, NF need to sustain above 8225 area for further rebound towards 8265/8285*-8325 & 8385*-8425 zone for the day (under mild to extreme bullish case scenario).* *On the other side, sustaining below 8195 area, NF may further fall towards 8155-8110/8090* & 8040-7980* and further towards 7900*-7840 zone for the day (under mild to extreme bear case scenario).* *Similarly, BNF (LTP: 18285) has sustain over 18450 area for further rebound towards 18550-18650* & 18750-18950* zone for the day (bull case scenario).* *On the down side, sustaining below 18400 area, BNF may further fall towards 18350-18200* & 18100-17850* and 17600*-17530 zone for the day (bear case scenario).* <https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-Z2iASpr3qA4/WEjYj9m7_eI/Jt8/9OBOprrY2zAblWZisE-8i25WKVFSBAO8wCLcB/s1600/SGX-NF-08-12-2016.png> SGX-NF <https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-AHXYzsy7H6U/WEjYlBtVKsI/JuA/P1JpLKC9QToOoMhYAsMNxtJ7Rli789X5ACLcB/s1600/BNF-07-12-2016.png> BNF * * -- Thanks & Regards, Asis Ghosh -- Kindly email stock reports at STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com For sharing knowledge -- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE. http://www.niftyviews.com/ Disclaimer :- "The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on their individual experience and perceptions and to share information with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members in investment decisions as equity investment is a risky venture.The administrator of www.Niftyviews.com just provide a platform for the authors to express their opinion and take no guarantee for the genuineness of the same."ANY member of this forum doesnt prepare or publish any research report; or ii. provide research report; or iii. make 'buy/sell/hold' recommendation; or iv. give price target; --- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Niftyviews.com" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to stockresearcher+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
[www.niftyviews.com:25812] Nifty Surged By 129 Points On Short Covering Amid Hopes Of A “Santa Rally” By ECB/Draghi And Strong INR As A Result Of Falling US Bond Yields Coupled With Yesterday’s “Bold”
*Market Wrap: 08/12/2016 (17:30)* *Technically Nifty Fut (Dec @8253) has to sustain over 8285-8335 area for further rally towards 8385-8425 & 8485-8545 Zone.* *On the other side, sustaining below 8225-8155 zone, NF may further fall towards 8090-8040 & 7980-7900 area in the near term.* Nifty Fut (Dec) today closed around 8253 (+1.59%) after making an opening day low of 8176 and post lunch session high of 8268. The rally may be primarily fuelled by short covering after gap up opening today following positive global cues and hopes of extension of ECB stimulus beyond March’17 till March’18 without any tapering. Also, strong INR as a result of falling US bond yields and yesterday’s RBI stance of holding rate may have helped the domestic market quite significantly today. Indian bond market was expecting at least 0.25% rate cut by RBI yesterday. The Indian market sentiment was also supported by the withdrawal of incremental CRR hike on the excess demonetized banking liquidity from 10^th Dec as announced by the RBI yesterday (although it was highly expected after MSS limit was hiked last week to absorb the excess liquidity and may be also negative for the banks in the long term, considering probable capital loss in their bond portfolio). The domestic market sentiment may be further boosted today by a Finance ministry statement that the actual FY-17 Govt capex may be more than the budgeted for the year. After demonetization led economic disruptions, Indian economy now badly need incremental Govt capex for infra and other spending amid tepid private investments going on for the last few years. Also, some reports suggesting that going forward RBI may maintain a dovish outlook and may also cut by 0.50% by Feb’17 & Jine’17, depending upon the actual inflation trajectory, disruptions in GDP after demonetization and Fed stance for 2017, may help the market sentiment today. Also, data showing that FII(s) are net buyers of stocks in spot segment for the last few days after the recent spree of market corrections may have helped the market by some extent. But, this may be also a financial year end portfolio rebalancing by the FII(s) and once the key technical level of 7900 NF is broken, they may turn aggressive sellers also. After all, one day rally on hopes of ECB stimulus may also be another “dead cat bounce”, which is being utilized for “trapped” long unwinding by the market participants as the real concerns of economic slowdown in India is still very much alive after demonetization and Govt’s stance of “war on black money”. Indian GDP, consumption and also corporate earnings are likely to suffer significantly in the short term as well as the long term for this surprise “surgical strike” on the “formal/informal economy”. Just now, ECB flashed its much awaited monetary policy announcement and instead of a “ Santa Gift” in the form of extension of its bond buying programme @80 bln EUR/pm till Dec’17 or March’18 as expected by the market, it actually throw a “bomb shell” in the form of a partial tapering. ECB will continue to purchase bonds at reduced rate of 60 bln EUR/pm till Dec’17. Although, Draghi may reveal more in the presser Q&A, the present “Taper Tantrum” may be an indication of scarcity of eligible bonds and limits of a central banker for an “unlimited” monetary stimulus. Draghi may again call for some “fiscal stimulus” in line of “Trumponomics” in the days ahead and it may be also an indication that era of “easy money” is going to end sooner rather than later. It may be also an acknowledgement by Draghi for rise in core inflation (1.8%) and comparatively better economic data across EU, despite its political & banking risks. Looking ahead, it’s almost certain that Fed will increase US rate by 0.25% and may also further increase by at least twice in 2017 (June-Dec), depending up on the actual fiscal spending plan of Trump. Thus, by March’17, USDINR may hover around 70-72; depending up on the global cues and RBI’s stance and that may be the biggest challenge for the Indian market & economy. We may see more incremental outflows by the FPI(s) in the coming months. <https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-2yliagwV1Dg/WElkudtb83I/Juc/PXEClrKEp10MEg8P7kHZByOsFjr4GVp0QCLcB/s1600/SGX-NF-PATTERN-08-12-2016.png> SGX-NF -- Thanks & Regards, Asis Ghosh -- Kindly email stock reports at STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com For sharing knowledge -- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE. http://www.niftyviews.com/ Disclaimer :- "The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on their individual experience and perceptions and to share information with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members in investment decisions as equity investment is a risky venture.The administrator of www.Niftyviews.com just provide a platform for the authors to express their opinion an
[www.niftyviews.com:25813] Nifty May Open In A Positive Note Supported By Global Cues Amid Hybrid QE Extension (Partial Tapering?) By ECB; But Stronger USD May Hurt The Indian Market In The Days Ahead
*Market Mantra: 09/12/2016 (08:30)* *Watch 8335-8385 & 8280-8225 Zone In Nifty Fut (Dec), Which May Open Around 8280 Today* *Extension of hybrid QE by Draghi may be more beneficial for US fiscal spending plan rather than EM; US bond yields & USD may be stronger in the coming days* As par early SGX indication, Nifty Fut (Dec) may open around 8280 (+27 points) following another record close of US market amid further rallies of transportation, industrials & financial sectors after Draghi’s “Santa Gift” of QE-Hybrid extension. Although, yesterday’s ECB “bombshell” of buying bonds at the reduced rate of EUR 60 bln/pm was apparently felt as a “beginning of a partial tapering”, on closer scrutiny, it came as 60 bln/pm for 9 months (till Dec’17) against market expectations of 80 bln/pm for 6 months after March’17. Thus ECB is actually buying more bonds of 540 bln against earlier perception of 480 bln. Some section of the market was also expecting an average 500 bln EUR total bond buying extension for 2017. Thus, ECB decision yesterday may not be a significant surprise in the back drop of increasing EU political & banking risks and some improvements in overall macroeconomic situations there. ECB is also ready to buy bonds below its deposit rates at negative rate (?), if such situation occurs and overall tone of Draghi was quite “dovish” and clearly it intends to keep EURUSD in a range of 1.10-1.00 (parity) in the months ahead to take benefit of an weaker currency for the sake of EU/EZ economic/export advantage. Thus, going ahead, due to policy divergence between ECB/BOJ & Fed and also for the other G-10 economies including RBI, USD may gain more strength and USDINR may hover around 70-72 in FY-18. Back to home, all eyes will be on the ongoing demonetization & political disruptions, various efforts of the Govt for a quick remonetization & digitization of the economy, progress of GST and forthcoming budget. Market may be also assuming a “big bang” spending budget from this time (incremental Govt capex), with nearly all the “idle & black money” now in the banking (formal system). But, in reality, it may not be so easy. *Technically, NF has to sustain over 8310-8335* area for further rally towards 8385*-8415 & 8485*-8545 zone for the day (bullish case scenario).* *On the other side, sustaining below 8280-8255* area, NF may further fall towards 8225/8210-8170* & 8155/8125*-8060 zone for the day.* *Similarly, BNF (LTP: 18535) has to sustain over 18700-18775* area for further rally towards 18900-19050* & 19100-19300* zone for the day (bullish case scenario).* ** **On the down side, sustaining below 18600-18550* area, BNF may further fall towards 18400-18350* & 18200-18100 zone for the day (bear case scenario).** ** <https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-hssQ8Ei5UZg/WEorExxs5qI/Ju0/njgh2nDv78cam5EOHTutLiUkE4q-smfpQCLcB/s1600/SGX-NF-09-12-2016.png> SGX-NF <https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-8MZwSAazNos/WEorGbtz8VI/Ju4/jbQqtYnhDPwcn3XaeSaPiHxVGwkXbV40gCLcB/s1600/BNF-09-12-2016.png> BNF * * -- Thanks & Regards, Asis Ghosh -- Kindly email stock reports at STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com For sharing knowledge -- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE. http://www.niftyviews.com/ Disclaimer :- "The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on their individual experience and perceptions and to share information with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members in investment decisions as equity investment is a risky venture.The administrator of www.Niftyviews.com just provide a platform for the authors to express their opinion and take no guarantee for the genuineness of the same."ANY member of this forum doesnt prepare or publish any research report; or ii. provide research report; or iii. make 'buy/sell/hold' recommendation; or iv. give price target; --- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Niftyviews.com" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to stockresearcher+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
[www.niftyviews.com:25819] Nifty Consolidates In A Narrow Range And Closed Almost Flat Supported By Banks & Flat Global Cues Ahead Of IIP & CPI; But Finished The Week Higher Above 2% Marked By ECB & R
be a political narrative for the Govt/BJP facing the series of state elections and 2019 general election. For the vast un/under employed electorates, the tag of “World’s fastest growing economy” is useless, until he/she got a decent job, earning enough to meet the minimum monthly expenses for a small family and spends some in the weekend. Only then Indian consumption story will get the consistent boost of “clean money” and a Govt will also enjoy enough political support. But, in this “experience” of demonetization, NAMO may have already made a political blunder without much thinking of consequences and lack of proper implementation. The biggest issue of unemployment may even get a boost for the immediate effect of the demonetization, which wracks havoc for the unorganized sector in the semi-urban & rural areas beside significant effect on the SMES. Big corporates and companies don’t have any major problems as they are already digitalized, but one can also expect temporary slide of sales, which may also persist longer affecting their earnings. Indian corporate earnings (Nifty EPS) may dip by at least 5-10% in the coming months on an average. Globally, all eyes are on OPEC meet this weekend and despite some doubts about an effective implementation of the OPEC cut agreement amid present supply glut, Oil has rallied today as some “trusted” analysts has predicted for $70 oil in the coming months on the back of an OPEC cut optimism. After the “dovish” ECB yesterday, all eyes will be on the Fed & Yellen next week. Its almost 100% certain that Fed will raise interest 0.25% in an annual exercise and thus the event may have been already discounted by the market also. But, the real action will come after Fed/Yellen statement/comments for any forward guidance about 2017 rate hikes. Market is also expecting at least two rate hikes in 2017 (June-Dec) for the perception of “Trumpflation” and fiscal spending by the new Trump administration. Going by the past history of Fed and the “uncertain” nature of Trump this time, Yellen may opt for a “dovish hike” instead for a specific hints for any future 2017 hikes and market may take it as “long pause” before any further Fed action till June or Dec’17. In that scenario of “dovish hike”, US bond yields & USD may also fall significantly, which may cause a “Santa Rally” for not only the US/EU market, but for the EM market also, including India. If Fed opts for a “hawkish hike” with a “promise” for “every meeting being live”, specially April-June’17, then US bond yields & USD will surge more causing extensive damage to the EM currencies and the market including India, despite having relatively stable macro (before demonetization). As the entire concept of “Trumponomics” may be still rhetoric now, Fed may prefer to wait for the new Trump administration to take charge of the Oval office in Jan’17 for an actual plan of fiscal spending package, source of funding etc and depending upon that, Yellen may offer some definitive forward guidance to the market only in March-April17 for a possible hike in June’17. Thus, probability of a “dovish hike” may be more than the “hawkish hike” at this point of time, but the big question may be also that, how long the US stock market can withstand the strength of dollar, despite perception of lower corporate taxes, higher Govt spending, higher inflation & GDP, higher employment and incrementally higher corporate earnings (core EBITDA). Eventually, an excessive strong USD may be bad for both US and the rest of the worlds, especially EM. *For SPX-500 (LTP: 2254), a major technical hurdle should be around 2260-2265 zone in the days ahead.* <https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-w_wYgcUUDv0/WErfJez6d8I/JvU/skhUzqwsZLsf_-OnlVSx6KJS67JP1IatACLcB/s1600/SGX-NF-WK-09-12-2016.png> SGX-NF -- Thanks & Regards, Asis Ghosh -- Kindly email stock reports at STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com For sharing knowledge -- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE. http://www.niftyviews.com/ Disclaimer :- "The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on their individual experience and perceptions and to share information with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members in investment decisions as equity investment is a risky venture.The administrator of www.Niftyviews.com just provide a platform for the authors to express their opinion and take no guarantee for the genuineness of the same."ANY member of this forum doesnt prepare or publish any research report; or ii. provide research report; or iii. make 'buy/sell/hold' recommendation; or iv. give price target; --- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Niftyviews.com" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to stockresearcher+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
[www.niftyviews.com:25820] Ahead of Fed, What The Chart Is Saying About SPX-500 & DOW-Fut?
ationalistic agenda. All these may kept Fed for a “dovish” or “owlish” hike this time without any definitive forward guidance for future rate hike paths till at least Feb’17 and US bond yields/USD/SPX-500 may fall by some extent after Fed next week as “Trump Trade” may fade. But at the same time, divergent monetary policy between Fed & ECB/BOJ and other G-10 economies may limit the fall of USD. *As there may be divergence in the technicals & the underlying fundamentals (news flow or events), one may look at the technicals for a light position ahead of Fed as time & price is the ultimate, despite all the confusions.* *SPX-500 Fut:* *LTP: 2261* *Has to close consecutively (at least 3-5 days) over 2265-2275 area for further rally towards 2290-2315* & 2345*-2390 zone; otherwise SPX may fall towards 2250-2230* zone and sustain below that may further fall to 2210-2190* & 2160-2120* area in the near term.* *DJ-30 Fut: * *LTP: 19645* ** *Has to sustain above 19675-19875* area for more strength towards 20100*-20235 & 20415*-20750 And 21400*-21575 zone; else DF may fall towards 19540-19480 area and sustaining below that, it may further fall to 19250-19000* & 18700-18490* and 18190-17790* zone in the near term.* It’s very rare for a positive co-relation between US stock market & USD, despite steepening of bond yield curve for long (2% spread between yields of 3MTSB/bill & 10YTSY/bond, supporting the EQ). The spread may be an expectation of improving economic activity in the coming months in US backed by higher growth & inflation. But, eventually “Trumponomics” may also lead to stagflation of higher inflation and stagnant/lower growth in the US economy. Also, the whole plan of incremental fiscal spending by Trump may be too much dependent of easy monetary policy of ECB & BOJ any deviation from there may be also a headwind for the required funding for Trump’s fiscal spending plan. Moreover, a strong USD for a long time may not be good for US as well as the global economy. <https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-eoH1JRjut6c/WE4ATeaeJ-I/JwI/rIXkdmXt2RMFBhzGK9u4XRccU1wyO7DSwCLcB/s1600/SPF-PATTERN-09-12-2016.png> <https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-ZuT9fXGtfvg/WE4Abu4WG7I/JwM/AUcCyn3dmz0NNm3JL3LOrrjxhCcrjmJYwCLcB/s1600/SPF-TL-09-12-2016.png> <https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-D3MS3HwZ-oY/WE4AeU4KZ_I/JwQ/50zyXEO2UIAq0H2mNHoFd6o7-PoQ-Ly9gCLcB/s1600/SPF-FIBB-09-12-2016.png> <https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-JrKoP-sLWQU/WE4Ah2hTilI/JwU/MfqpEgL2AqwoqMn_H26B08F_tAzk_F_7gCLcB/s1600/DJ-PATTERN-09-12-2016.png> <https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-4eJ4tlSeIDw/WE4AjOveI7I/JwY/9nn1pLyjO2UqD8EhnzU-KwWnZbgaz7XygCLcB/s1600/DJ-TL-09-12-2016.png> <https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-Qq0BzhNK_As/WE4AkjM_IdI/AAAAJwc/aHoTYH6OFh484xT7UyESOpPXzKe5FxSWQCLcB/s1600/DJ-FIBB-09-12-2016.png> -- Thanks & Regards, Asis Ghosh asisghosh.blogspot.com -- Kindly email stock reports at STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com For sharing knowledge -- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE. http://www.niftyviews.com/ Disclaimer :- "The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on their individual experience and perceptions and to share information with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members in investment decisions as equity investment is a risky venture.The administrator of www.Niftyviews.com just provide a platform for the authors to express their opinion and take no guarantee for the genuineness of the same."ANY member of this forum doesnt prepare or publish any research report; or ii. provide research report; or iii. make 'buy/sell/hold' recommendation; or iv. give price target; --- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Niftyviews.com" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to stockresearcher+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
[www.niftyviews.com:25821] Nifty May Be Under Pressure Amid Tepid Domestic Cues Marked By Probable Delay Of GST, Poor IIP, Strong USD & Surging Oil Despite Positive Global Cues; All Eyes Will Be On De
*Market Mantra: 12/12/2016 (08:30)* *Watch 8225-8175 & 8310-8335 Zone In Nifty Fut (Dec), Which May Open Around 8240 Today* *Will domestic market “celebrate” the possible delay of GST to Sep’17(??) as economy can’t withstand two successive disruptions due to demonetization & GST? * *It may be “yes or “no”, but FII(s) may not be “amused” at all for successive delays of GST.* As par early SGX indication, Nifty Fut (Dec) may open around 8240 (-35 points), slightly in negative note despite positive global cues. Domestic market may be under pressure ahead of Fed, strong USD, surging oil and domestic headwinds of demonetization led economic & political disruptions. Apart from tepid projections of GDP data, which may slump around 2% or more along with 50-10% downgrade of corporate earnings in the coming quarters, market may also take note of statement of various state FM(s) that they may suffer almost 40-50% hit in their indirect tax revenues as an immediate fall out of the demonetization. Demonetization is fast turning into a political rhetoric now and GST may be one of the victims of that. As par yesterday’s GST council meeting indication and statements of various state FM(s) and the FM of the country, GST may be not possible to implement by April’17 for lack of consensus on dual control. Also, state FM(s) are wary of demonetization led economic disruptions in the states, which also vitiated the whole political atmosphere of consensus and spirit of the Parliament in passage of the GST bill wholeheartedly. Although, delay in implementation of GST may be also seen as non-disruptive for the short term by the market, its successive failure may be also an indication that Govt as well as the opposition political parties may also be pre-occupied by its political rhetoric rather than economic reform agenda and in that scenario, FII(s) may not be “amused” at all in the coming days. *Technically, NF has to sustain over 8225-8205* zone today; otherwise it may further fall towards 8175-8125* & 8080-8040* area today (bear case scenario).* *On the other side, for any strength, NF need to sustain above 8285-8310* area for further rebound towards 8335-8385* & 8435*-8485 zone for the day (bullish case scenario).* *Similarly, BNF (LTP: 18720) need to stay above 18775-18850* area; otherwise it may further fall towards 18650-18450* & 18350-18200* zone for the day (bear case scenario).* *For any strength, BNF needs to trade above 18900-18950* area for further rebound towards 19050*-19100 & 19250-19350* zone for the day (bullish case scenario).* <https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-XU816rXWWZI/WE4f9zrr7ZI/Jws/40kwsqH_RjMAT7Idheqrg0XlM43sgyPiACLcB/s1600/SGX-NF-12-12-2016.png> SGX-NF -- Thanks & Regards, Asis Ghosh -- Kindly email stock reports at STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com For sharing knowledge -- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE. http://www.niftyviews.com/ Disclaimer :- "The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on their individual experience and perceptions and to share information with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members in investment decisions as equity investment is a risky venture.The administrator of www.Niftyviews.com just provide a platform for the authors to express their opinion and take no guarantee for the genuineness of the same."ANY member of this forum doesnt prepare or publish any research report; or ii. provide research report; or iii. make 'buy/sell/hold' recommendation; or iv. give price target; --- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Niftyviews.com" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to stockresearcher+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
[www.niftyviews.com:25828] Nifty Slumped By 94 Points Amid Rally In Oil, US Bond Yield And Probability Of GST Delay As A Result Of Demonetization Led Economic & Political Disruptions
oney laundering allegations against some of the branch officials; although this was later denied by the bank as also the RBI. The ongoing seizure of huge new currency notes may also undermine the Govt’s stance of “war against black money”, as it’s not possible to have such huge amounts in new currency notes without “active co-operation” by some dishonest bank officials and concerned people, involved in currency logistics, when entire India is standing in banking queues and still not receiving 2000/- par day on most of the occasions. Globally, China market was weak today after some regulatory clamp down on some institutional investors (certain insurance companies) for excessive dealing in Chinese shares. Also, there was some market buzz that BOJ may soon go for some types of tapering in order to protect the JGB bond yields around zero and to prevent excessive devaluation of Yen due to divergent monetary policy with Fed. In Italy, new PM is in the process of “sworn in” to for a new Govt and Monte Paschi may get official Govt bailout, if they failed to raise $5 bln immediately from a clutch of private investors. Total fund requirement for the bank may be around $8.75 bln at this point of time (EUR 14 bln life line). Now, it’s almost 100% certain that Fed will hike rate by 0.25% on 15^th Dec in an “annual exercise” for 2016. Some sections of the market may believe that Fed will not only hike this time, but may also go for a rapid shift in its easy monetary policy stance, thus paving the way for further normalization of US rates in 2017. Thus, the US bond yield & also the USD are surging right now. But, considering the current strength in USD and actual implementation of the “Trumponomics”, Fed may hike rates twice @0.25% in 2017 and also in 2018 instead of some market perception of 3-4 hikes in 2017. Thus Fed may take the script of a “dovish hike” rather than a “hawkish hike” this time and USD may correct by some extent after the Fed meet on 15^th Dec. But, eventually, Fed may again sounds like a “hawk” around Feb’17 for an expected 0.25% hike in June’17, depending upon the actual plan of fiscal spending by Trump and US inflation, GDP & job trajectory. For Indian market, all focus may be on this USD & oil strength, forthcoming budget on 1^st Feb’17, RBI stance and remonetization & GST progress on the ground apart from H2FY17 GDP & corporate earnings to have an idea about overall co-lateral damage done to the economy for the demonetization, where benefit may be miniscule. Although, for the FY-18 budget, there is some market buzz of windfall gain for around Rs.1.20 lakh cr out of demonetization led surge in direct tax collections, that may be used as a “helicopter money” next year by the FM, in reality it’s may not be so easy, considering the severe manpower shortage of the IT dept and probable huge number of litigations. *Technically, NF need to sustain above 8325-8485 zone for any major trend reversal; otherwise it may again fall towards 7900 and consecutive closing below that, 7650 zone may be on the card in the coming days. * <https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-PmSbJVvudg4/WE69mGK8YmI/JxI/XDI7aVTGIQEoqXNGDJjpv6rOhKxWTQpGQCEw/s1600/SGX-NF-PATTERN-12-12-2016.png> SGX-NF <https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-05La2FjMKEQ/WE69oNQM2uI/JxM/sA3DOLtbB2k8IxS4xd4ZEyTDOqvHJqmkwCEw/s1600/CL-PATTERN-12-12-2016.png> Crude Oil -- Thanks & Regards, Asis Ghosh -- Kindly email stock reports at STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com For sharing knowledge -- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE. http://www.niftyviews.com/ Disclaimer :- "The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on their individual experience and perceptions and to share information with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members in investment decisions as equity investment is a risky venture.The administrator of www.Niftyviews.com just provide a platform for the authors to express their opinion and take no guarantee for the genuineness of the same."ANY member of this forum doesnt prepare or publish any research report; or ii. provide research report; or iii. make 'buy/sell/hold' recommendation; or iv. give price target; --- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Niftyviews.com" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to stockresearcher+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
[www.niftyviews.com:25829] Nifty May Be Under Stress After Opening Flat Following Tepid Global Cues Marked By Fear Of “Hawkish Fed” & PBOC Tightening Amid Ongoing Domestic Headwinds Of Demonetization
*Market Mantra: 13/12/2016 (08:30)* *Watch 8225-8325 & 8195-8080 Zone In Nifty Fut (Dec), Which May Open Around 8190 Today* *All eyes will be on CPI data today after market hours.* ** As par early SGX indication, Nifty Fut (Dec) may open around 8190 (+7 points), almost flat amid following tepid Global/Asian cues. In the morning, China IIP & retail sales data for Nov came above market expectations and the upbeat data may force PBOC for some tightening keeping in line with the impending Fed hike. Also, some regulatory clampdown on some specific institutional clients (insurance companies) in China for restrictive market access is causing some pressure on the risk trade. After reaching nearly $55, oil is also under some pressure as focus now shifting on implementation of the OPEC cut plan and US Bond yields also dropped towards 2.47% after hitting high of 2.53% yesterday as Fed rate hike of 0.25% is almost discounted by the market. Going forward, Fed’s dot plots & forward guidance (inflation & GDP projection) may matter most on 15^th Dec, rather than the official rate hike announcement. Back to home, all eyes will be on the CPI data today after market hours in order to assess the immediate impact of demonetization on the core as well as food inflation (estimate : 3.90%; prior: 4.2%). Headline CPI below 3.90% on a consistent basis may force RBI to consider a 0.25% rate cut in its forthcoming Feb’17 policy meeting. With all focus on the ongoing economic & political disruptions as a result of the demonetization fiasco, market may also keenly watch the actual progress of remonetization & GST on the ground. *Technically, NF has to sustain above 8225-8265* area for further rebound towards 8300/8325*-8375 zone for the day (under bullish case scenario).* *On the other side, sustaining below 8195-8150* area, NF may further fall toward 8125/8080*-8040 & 7980*-7900 zone for the day (under bear case scenario).* *Similarly, BNF (LTP: 18425) has to sustain over 18700* area for further rebound towards 18775*-18850 & 18900-19100* zone for the day (under bullish case scenario).* *On the down side, sustaining below 18350* area, BNF may further fall towards 18200*-18000 & 17900-17850* zone for the day (under bear case scenario).* ** ** -- Thanks & Regards, Asis Ghosh -- Kindly email stock reports at STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com For sharing knowledge -- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE. http://www.niftyviews.com/ Disclaimer :- "The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on their individual experience and perceptions and to share information with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members in investment decisions as equity investment is a risky venture.The administrator of www.Niftyviews.com just provide a platform for the authors to express their opinion and take no guarantee for the genuineness of the same."ANY member of this forum doesnt prepare or publish any research report; or ii. provide research report; or iii. make 'buy/sell/hold' recommendation; or iv. give price target; --- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Niftyviews.com" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to stockresearcher+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
[www.niftyviews.com:25830] Nifty May Be Under Stress After Opening Flat Following Tepid Global Cues Marked By Fear Of “Hawkish Fed” & PBOC Tightening Amid Ongoing Domestic Headwinds Of Demonetization
*Market Mantra: 13/12/2016 (08:30)* *Watch 8225-8325 & 8195-8080 Zone In Nifty Fut (Dec), Which May Open Around 8190 Today* *All eyes will be on CPI data today after market hours.* ** As par early SGX indication, Nifty Fut (Dec) may open around 8190 (+7 points), almost flat amid following tepid Global/Asian cues. In the morning, China IIP & retail sales data for Nov came above market expectations and the upbeat data may force PBOC for some tightening keeping in line with the impending Fed hike. Also, some regulatory clampdown on some specific institutional clients (insurance companies) in China for restrictive market access is causing some pressure on the risk trade. After reaching nearly $55, oil is also under some pressure as focus now shifting on implementation of the OPEC cut plan and US Bond yields also dropped towards 2.47% after hitting high of 2.53% yesterday as Fed rate hike of 0.25% is almost discounted by the market. Going forward, Fed’s dot plots & forward guidance (inflation & GDP projection) may matter most on 15^th Dec, rather than the official rate hike announcement. Back to home, all eyes will be on the CPI data today after market hours in order to assess the immediate impact of demonetization on the core as well as food inflation (estimate : 3.90%; prior: 4.2%). Headline CPI below 3.90% on a consistent basis may force RBI to consider a 0.25% rate cut in its forthcoming Feb’17 policy meeting. With all focus on the ongoing economic & political disruptions as a result of the demonetization fiasco, market may also keenly watch the actual progress of remonetization & GST on the ground. *Technically, NF has to sustain above 8225-8265* area for further rebound towards 8300/8325*-8375 zone for the day (under bullish case scenario).* *On the other side, sustaining below 8195-8150* area, NF may further fall toward 8125/8080*-8040 & 7980*-7900 zone for the day (under bear case scenario).* *Similarly, BNF (LTP: 18425) has to sustain over 18700* area for further rebound towards 18775*-18850 & 18900-19100* zone for the day (under bullish case scenario).* *On the down side, sustaining below 18350* area, BNF may further fall towards 18200*-18000 & 17900-17850* zone for the day (under bear case scenario).* ** ** -- Thanks & Regards, Asis Ghosh -- Kindly email stock reports at STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com For sharing knowledge -- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE. http://www.niftyviews.com/ Disclaimer :- "The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on their individual experience and perceptions and to share information with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members in investment decisions as equity investment is a risky venture.The administrator of www.Niftyviews.com just provide a platform for the authors to express their opinion and take no guarantee for the genuineness of the same."ANY member of this forum doesnt prepare or publish any research report; or ii. provide research report; or iii. make 'buy/sell/hold' recommendation; or iv. give price target; --- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Niftyviews.com" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to stockresearcher+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
[www.niftyviews.com:25831] Nifty May Be Under Stress After Opening Flat Following Tepid Global Cues Marked By Fear Of “Hawkish Fed” & PBOC Tightening Amid Ongoing Domestic Headwinds Of Demonetization
*Market Mantra: 13/12/2016 (08:30)* *Watch 8225-8325 & 8195-8080 Zone In Nifty Fut (Dec), Which May Open Around 8190 Today* *All eyes will be on CPI data today after market hours.* ** As par early SGX indication, Nifty Fut (Dec) may open around 8190 (+7 points), almost flat amid following tepid Global/Asian cues. In the morning, China IIP & retail sales data for Nov came above market expectations and the upbeat data may force PBOC for some tightening keeping in line with the impending Fed hike. Also, some regulatory clampdown on some specific institutional clients (insurance companies) in China for restrictive market access is causing some pressure on the risk trade. After reaching nearly $55, oil is also under some pressure as focus now shifting on implementation of the OPEC cut plan and US Bond yields also dropped towards 2.47% after hitting high of 2.53% yesterday as Fed rate hike of 0.25% is almost discounted by the market. Going forward, Fed’s dot plots & forward guidance (inflation & GDP projection) may matter most on 15^th Dec, rather than the official rate hike announcement. Back to home, all eyes will be on the CPI data today after market hours in order to assess the immediate impact of demonetization on the core as well as food inflation (estimate : 3.90%; prior: 4.2%). Headline CPI below 3.90% on a consistent basis may force RBI to consider a 0.25% rate cut in its forthcoming Feb’17 policy meeting. With all focus on the ongoing economic & political disruptions as a result of the demonetization fiasco, market may also keenly watch the actual progress of remonetization & GST on the ground. *Technically, NF has to sustain above 8225-8265* area for further rebound towards 8300/8325*-8375 zone for the day (under bullish case scenario).* *On the other side, sustaining below 8195-8150* area, NF may further fall toward 8125/8080*-8040 & 7980*-7900 zone for the day (under bear case scenario).* *Similarly, BNF (LTP: 18425) has to sustain over 18700* area for further rebound towards 18775*-18850 & 18900-19100* zone for the day (under bullish case scenario).* *On the down side, sustaining below 18350* area, BNF may further fall towards 18200*-18000 & 17900-17850* zone for the day (under bear case scenario).* ** ** -- Thanks & Regards, Asis Ghosh -- Kindly email stock reports at STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com For sharing knowledge -- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE. http://www.niftyviews.com/ Disclaimer :- "The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on their individual experience and perceptions and to share information with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members in investment decisions as equity investment is a risky venture.The administrator of www.Niftyviews.com just provide a platform for the authors to express their opinion and take no guarantee for the genuineness of the same."ANY member of this forum doesnt prepare or publish any research report; or ii. provide research report; or iii. make 'buy/sell/hold' recommendation; or iv. give price target; --- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Niftyviews.com" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to stockresearcher+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
[www.niftyviews.com:25832] Nifty Jumped By 40 Points In A Late Session Rally Amid Positive Global/EU Cues Supported By Italian Banks Restructuring Plan And FM’s Assurances About Faster Remonetization
ven from some of the defaulters or NPA accounts. It remains to be seen, what the Govt or various enforcing agencies will do for those borrowers, who repay loans by “black money” of their own of fronting for others. All eyes will be on the WPI and Fed’s statement (forward guidance) after the 0.25% rate hike tomorrow, which is almost 100% certain now. There may be three scenarios for Fed tomorrow: 1.***Dovish Hike:* Fed hike by 025% and provide no clear cut guidance about 2017 rate hikes. Market may take it as long pause until June’17 at least and USD may fall to some extent. In this scenario, EM currency may give some relief rally. 2.*Hawkish Hike*: Fed hike by 0.25% and give a clear indication about 3-4 hikes in 2017 dot plots. In this scenario, USD & US bond yields will rally more and EM may suffer. 3.***Owlish Hike:* Fed hike by 0.25% and emphasize on various incoming US economic data and Trump’s actual plan & implementation for the fiscal spending rhetoric (data dependent). USD & US bond yields may drop modestly as there may not be any rate hike talks until Jun’17. EM currency may rally for some days. At this point of time, considering various scenarios, probability of a “Dovish/Owlish” hike is much more than a “Hawkish” hike as both USD & US bond yields has rallied quite significantly for the last few months, especially after the “Trumpism”. A strong currency is itself a proxy for higher rates in an economy and in that scenario; Fed may not take any additional risks by being an “unusual hawk” for the time being. Some analysts are also expecting an overall 6 rate hikes in 2017-18 as “Real US bond Yields” may have not peaked as of now unlike previous occasions. But, considering all the scenarios of USD strength, its effect on the US & global economy and Trump’s actual fiscal spending plan & its implementation time period may argue for an overall 4 rate hikes in 2017-18 (2 rate hikes in each year @0.25% instead of current 1 rate hike in a year). After 2018, Fed may reconsider its pace of normalization of the monetary policy more rapidly under a new Fed chair or even with Yellen’s second term, depending upon the actual result of the “Trumponomics”. For Indian market, a strong USD as a result of surging US bond yields and divergent monetary policy between Fed and other G-10 central bankers including RBI, may be one of the significant headwinds in the coming months apart from the risks of further economic & political disruptions for the demonetization fiasco, despite prospect a “dream budget”. <https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-K2jPdTMluU8/WFAQzIqOSUI/JyI/_xKPxClWO-o6QL6bByA0faMUdqoRt3ZyQCLcB/s1600/SGX-NF-PATTERN-13-12-2016.png> SGX-NF -- Thanks & Regards, Asis Ghosh -- Kindly email stock reports at STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com For sharing knowledge -- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE. http://www.niftyviews.com/ Disclaimer :- "The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on their individual experience and perceptions and to share information with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members in investment decisions as equity investment is a risky venture.The administrator of www.Niftyviews.com just provide a platform for the authors to express their opinion and take no guarantee for the genuineness of the same."ANY member of this forum doesnt prepare or publish any research report; or ii. provide research report; or iii. make 'buy/sell/hold' recommendation; or iv. give price target; --- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Niftyviews.com" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to stockresearcher+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
[www.niftyviews.com:25834] Nifty May Drift Lower On Global Concern About Fed Outlook & Domestic Headwinds For Deflation/Lower Inflation As A Result Of Demonetization Led Economic Disruptions
*Market Mantra: 14/12/2016 (08:30)* *Watch 8250-8325 & 8185-8125 Zone In Nifty Fut (Dec), Which May Open Around 8220 Today* *All eyes will be on the India WPI & Fed’s dot plots & economic projection for 2017 today (forward guidance) as 0.25% rate hike may be already discounted by the market.* As par early SGX indication, Nifty Fut (Dec) may open around 8220, almost flat following tepid global cues on concern about Fed outlook for US rate hikes & overall economy in 2017 as market may be already digested the much anticipated 0.25% rate hike today. A “surprise” will be no rate hike or hike by 0.50% by Fed, which is most unlikely at this point of time, because in that scenario, Fed’s own credibility will be at stake, considering its 2015 dot plots forecast (4 rate hikes in 2016!!) & subsequent flip flops and the jawboning for the last few months for an annual hike in 2016 as overall US economic data may be well over the Fed’s tolerance level for a 0.25% rate hike as of now. Market may be also expecting at least 2 rate hikes in 2017 @0.25% (June-Dec) and any significant deviation from that projection may cause some volatility in the global as well as Indian market in the days ahead. If Fed take the script of “Dovish/Owlish” hike today, USD may fall to some extent and in the case of any “Hawkish” hike, USD may rally further, causing significance pressure on the EM currencies and the market including India. Back to home, all eyes may be on the WPI today after yesterday’s surprise fall in CPI, which may be another indication of the economic slowdown as an immediate impact of the demonetization. WPI is expected to come around 3.10% for Nov against Oct figure of 3.39%. As par some reports, to contain the demonetization “pain” for the general public ahead of state elections, Govt may shortly announce some relief measures and social spending packages intended for the “Aam Admi” and small businesses/traders, which has big traditional support base for the BJP/RSS. Govt may be also exploring various ways for some tax cuts and a “dream: budget for FY-18 in expectation for a “huge” windfall gain after the demonetization, which so far yield insignificant benefit against the overall collateral damages already done to the economy. All eyes will be on the demonetization debate in the Parliament also in the last three days left after hopes for GST passage is almost dashed in the current winter session. *Technically, NF needs to sustain above 8250 zone for any rebound towards 8300/8325*-8375 & 8405/8435*-8485 area today (under bullish case scenario).* *On the other side, sustaining below 8225 area, NF may further fall towards 8185/8165*-8125 & 8085-8040* zone for the day (under bear case scenario).* *Similarly, BNF (LTP: 18490) need to stay above 18550 area for any rebound towards 18675-18800* & 18900-19100* zone for the day (under bullish case scenario).* *On the downside, sustaining below 18450 zone, BNF may further fall towards 18300-18200/18150* & 17950*-17850 area for the day (under bear case scenario).* <https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-UM8eJsC86fI/WFDC5z8qE0I/Jyg/0xwMTKIv_VEjR90J4sLJsALl6UjmJ6lDACLcB/s1600/SGX-NF-14-12-2016.png> SGX-NF <https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-bOn4cnh2Q5Q/WFDC7HV7_wI/Jyk/rY2SWh0k0nk0IVgZR82fnzaiKC0UuCNwACLcB/s1600/BNF-13-12-2016.png> BNF -- Thanks & Regards, Asis Ghosh -- Kindly email stock reports at STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com For sharing knowledge -- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE. http://www.niftyviews.com/ Disclaimer :- "The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on their individual experience and perceptions and to share information with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members in investment decisions as equity investment is a risky venture.The administrator of www.Niftyviews.com just provide a platform for the authors to express their opinion and take no guarantee for the genuineness of the same."ANY member of this forum doesnt prepare or publish any research report; or ii. provide research report; or iii. make 'buy/sell/hold' recommendation; or iv. give price target; --- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Niftyviews.com" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to stockresearcher+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
[www.niftyviews.com:25841] Nifty Dropped By 23 Points In A Cautious Trade Ahead Of Fed Coupled With Tepid Domestic Macros & Demonetization Led Political Battle & Economic Disruptions
India’s story of consumption may be too much dependent on this “unaccounted wealth”. It may sound odd, but it’s a hard reality as of now. <https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-lA9Zoq_RIQE/WFFiwjauenI/JzA/BVvCwszZf-Y4bzFCtD9p4wMdyaJz7mSEQCLcB/s1600/SGX-NF-PATTERN-14-12-2016.png> SGX-NF -- Thanks & Regards, Asis Ghosh -- Kindly email stock reports at STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com For sharing knowledge -- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE. http://www.niftyviews.com/ Disclaimer :- "The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on their individual experience and perceptions and to share information with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members in investment decisions as equity investment is a risky venture.The administrator of www.Niftyviews.com just provide a platform for the authors to express their opinion and take no guarantee for the genuineness of the same."ANY member of this forum doesnt prepare or publish any research report; or ii. provide research report; or iii. make 'buy/sell/hold' recommendation; or iv. give price target; --- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Niftyviews.com" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to stockresearcher+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
[www.niftyviews.com:25842] Nifty May Open & Stay Lower Amid Stronger USD Coupled With Tepid Global Cues As Fed Sounds More “Hawkish” Than Expected After 0.25% Hike
*Market Mantra: 15/12/2016 (08:30)* *Watch 8195-8250 & 8090-8040 Zone In Nifty Fut (Dec), Which May Open Around 8115 Today* *Combination of stronger USD and domestic jitters of economic slowdown and political disruptions as a result of demonetization may be significant headwinds for the Indian market in the coming months despite relatively better macros among its EM peers.* As par early SGX indication, Nifty Fut (Dec) may open around 8115 (-89 points) following weak global cues after Fed sounds more optimistic (hawkish) than market expectation after hiking 0.25% (as highly expected). Overall tone of Yellen was not so dovish as usual after a hike and quite unexpectedly Fed projected 3 dot plots (hikes) in 2017 instead of 2 hikes expected earlier. Moreover, Yellen’s comments about the 0.25% rate hike as “very modest adjustment” and her “confidence” in the US economy has sent the USD & US bond yields soaring and for the first time after a decade, market may be taking Fed seriously. As a result, FFR is now showing a probability of another June’17 hike around 70% from 50% yesterday and almost 100% for two hikes in H2CY2017. Contrary to the earlier market expectation, Yellen seemed to be unfazed by the potential negative impact of higher US bond yields & USD on the US & global economy and confident about strength of US economy to withstand at least 0.75% of another rate hike in 2017 and also supported the Fed’s dot plots of 3 hikes in 2017. Consequently, US stock market also fall as yield spread between 10YTSY & 2YT bond flattens. As Fed will be on the rate tightening (normalization) path in the coming years by hiking 0.50-0.75% in each year through 2017-19, other G-10 central bankers may also be forced to follow or refrained from any additional easing in order to keep the interest rate differential at an optimum level and era of “easy money” policy may be over with theme of more fiscal spending. Now, depending upon the actual plan of Trump for the expected fiscal spending and implementation, Fed may either hike twice or thrice in 2017. For Indian market, a strong USD and less “easy money” may be some of the headwinds along with pain of demonetization, political risks & lack of reform implementation (GST/Land & Labour reform). *Technically, NF need to sustain above 8090 zone today; otherwise it may further fall towards 8040*-7980 & 7900*-7860 area for the day (bear case scenario).* *On the other side, for any strength, NF need to stay above 8135 area for some rebound towards 8195*-8250 & 8310-8375* zone for the day (bullish case scenario).* *Similarly, BNF (LTP: 18403) has to sustain above 18200-18150* area today; otherwise it may further fall towards 17900-17850* & 17650*-17300 zone for the day (bear case scenario).* *On the other side, for any strength, BNF need to stay above 18500-18550* area for further rebound towards 18650*-18800 & 18900*-19100 zone for the day (bullish case scenario).* <https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-SwPWZpwCj-c/WFIUMg4WesI/JzY/CD3ftcDjyG0gK_Yo0osA0Lpk6RLAmgiKACLcB/s1600/SGX-NF-15-12-2016.png> SGX-NF <https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-DsDz_torqqo/WFIUOokIe1I/Jzc/EBywW_is4UMjsP643Oe9VjnYaY3jgmPOQCLcB/s1600/BNF-14-12-2016.png> BNF * * -- Thanks & Regards, Asis Ghosh -- Kindly email stock reports at STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com For sharing knowledge -- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE. http://www.niftyviews.com/ Disclaimer :- "The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on their individual experience and perceptions and to share information with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members in investment decisions as equity investment is a risky venture.The administrator of www.Niftyviews.com just provide a platform for the authors to express their opinion and take no guarantee for the genuineness of the same."ANY member of this forum doesnt prepare or publish any research report; or ii. provide research report; or iii. make 'buy/sell/hold' recommendation; or iv. give price target; --- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Niftyviews.com" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to stockresearcher+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
[www.niftyviews.com:25847] Nifty Dropped By 20 Points In A Volatile Day Of Trading After “Hawkish Hike” By Fed & Strength In USD
*Technically, consecutive closing above 6.97-7.00 level, USDCNY may rally towards 7.15-7.25 zone in the near term.* US market may also correct significantly from the record near Dow 20k level as a strong USD & borrowing costs (US bond yields) may not be good also for the US economy itself, despite perception of “Trumponomics”. “Trump trade” may also fade after record rally as market might focus on the reality rather than an election rhetoric. *Technically, SPX-500 Fut, which is now trading around 2252, has to sustain over 2265-2275 zone for further rally; otherwise it will come down again.* Indian market is already under pressure for various domestic headwinds like demonetization led economic & political disruptions coupled with high probability of "No" GST roll out in April’17 or even in Sep’17 and actually underperformed the global markets in the last few months. Domestic market may be further under pressure, if US & global market start to correct in the coming days, especially after Jan’17, when Trump take charge. *Technically, unless & until Nifty sustained above 8325-8485 zone for a few days, any “Santa” or “Pre-Budget” Rally in the absence of FII (s) in this month of Dec may be utilized for long profit booking to prepare for a probable Jan-March selling spree, despite a hope for a “dream budget”.* *Time & price action may be suggesting that consecutive closing below 7900 zone, Nifty may head towards 7200-6800 level in the coming months on the back of various global headwinds, high probable end of “easy money era”, US & EU political risks, strong USD and domestic pains of demonetization & “war on black money” (slow earnings recovery cycle & slump in GDP growth and Indian political risks). There are too many headwinds in comparison with too few tailwinds for the domestic market as of now.* Eight years of liquidity driven global bull market after 2008 economic crisis may be over supported primarily by the central bankers (QQE) as easy monetary stimulus policy (“24/7 money printing”) may be gradually replaced by fiscal & structural stimulus in the coming months as a result of political compulsion & nationalistic trend (“America First, Great Britain First” etc). We may see significant capitulation for the EM in the coming days and India may not be an exception despite a “bright spot” in the global economy. <https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-K7Z-TuFh2qg/WFK4ZI8ezaI/AAAAJz0/muZ2_SNL8Qspiob1T5PZnY8uSKHTr550ACLcB/s1600/SGX-NF-PATTERN-15-12-2016.png> SGX-NF -- Thanks & Regards, Asis Ghosh -- Kindly email stock reports at STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com For sharing knowledge -- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE. http://www.niftyviews.com/ Disclaimer :- "The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on their individual experience and perceptions and to share information with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members in investment decisions as equity investment is a risky venture.The administrator of www.Niftyviews.com just provide a platform for the authors to express their opinion and take no guarantee for the genuineness of the same."ANY member of this forum doesnt prepare or publish any research report; or ii. provide research report; or iii. make 'buy/sell/hold' recommendation; or iv. give price target; --- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Niftyviews.com" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to stockresearcher+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
[www.niftyviews.com:25849] Nifty May Open & Stay Depressed Amid Tepid Global Cues Following Hawkish Fed & Talk Of BOJ Tightening (?)
*Market Mantra: 16/12/2016 (08:30)* *Watch 8225-8275 & 8150-8090 Zone In Nifty Fut (Dec), Which May Open Around 8172 Today* *Domestically, All Eyes Will Be On The Political Battles Out Of Demonetization, Progress Of GST, Any Announcement By The Govt For Some “Stimulus Gain” To Reduce The “Demonetization Pain”, forthcoming “Dream Budget” & Pace Of Remonetization Apart From Strength In USD* As par early SGX indication, Nifty Fut (Dec) may open around 8172 (-6 points), almost flat following neutral global/Asian cues; although overnight US stock Fut closed higher and DOW-Fut was almost at 20k in yesterday’s trading. The theme is consistent strength in USDJPY, which may be staring for 122 zone, if sustained over 119 in the days ahead. As par some unconfirmed reports, BOJ may be thinking about some tightening in 2017 in order to keep the interest rate differential with Fed in balance, which may be more bad news for the “stimulus addicted” market (QQE). *Technically, NF needs to stay above 8205-8225* zone for any rebound towards 8275*-8325/8355 & 8395*-8415/8435 area for the day (under bullish case scenario).* *On the other side, sustaining below 8180-8150* zone, NF may further fall towards 8090-8040* & 7980*-7900 area for the day. ( under bear case scenario).* *Similarly, BNF (LTP: 18454), has to sustain over 18650 zone for any recovery towards 18800*-18950 & 19100*-19300 area (bullish case scenario).* *On the other side, sustaining below 18600 area, BNF may further fall towards 18350*-18200 & 18100*-17900 zone for the day (bear case scenario).* <https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-RnwMVt50tZk/WFNlrsFIjMI/J0M/1JxljoX-4Ycam94V_zglpCGmhUvSjLpaACLcB/s1600/SGX-NF-16-12-2016.png> SGX-NF <https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-5ZBPbunmlr8/WFNluBW9ZSI/J0Q/rT41mZpi_0IuR9LTKR0UUYVy0c9b9sW3wCLcB/s1600/BNF-15-12-2016.png> BNF -- Thanks & Regards, Asis Ghosh -- Kindly email stock reports at STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com For sharing knowledge -- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE. http://www.niftyviews.com/ Disclaimer :- "The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on their individual experience and perceptions and to share information with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members in investment decisions as equity investment is a risky venture.The administrator of www.Niftyviews.com just provide a platform for the authors to express their opinion and take no guarantee for the genuineness of the same."ANY member of this forum doesnt prepare or publish any research report; or ii. provide research report; or iii. make 'buy/sell/hold' recommendation; or iv. give price target; --- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Niftyviews.com" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to stockresearcher+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
[www.niftyviews.com:25856] Nifty Dropped By Another 27 Points & Close The “Fed Week” Almost 1.6% Lower Amid Hawkish Yellen, Ongoing Chaos For Demonetization And Plunge In China Market For Outflow Conc
xit. Although, in that scenario, no Fed hike in June’17 may be positive for “risk assets” in H2CY17, but it’s very interesting to see, how central banker’s QQE is effective against geopolitical & nationalistic events in the coming years (Real Brexit, US political risks for Trumpism, Trumponomics & other EU political risks). For Indian markets, apart from the above global headwinds, demonetization led economic & political disruptions, delay in GST implementation eventually after 2019 general election (?), partial destruction of Indian consumption (30-40%?) as a result of “wealth destruction & redistribution” following Govt’s stance of “war on black money” may be some the domestic jitters. No doubt, Investors has huge “faith” in NAMO as a credible political leader, who can leads from the front unlike some of his predecessors and thus it was not BJP, but NAMO who “won” the 2014 general election for his mass appeal as a “leader”, who can “fight” the menace of poverty, corruption, black money and can also contribute for development & employment (Gujrat model). But, the current economical & political chaos because of the “demonetization” led “political gamble” for the sake of “war against black money” theme may be now changing towards different narrative for “digital cash less economy” theme and another “VDS”. NAMO may have taken this “political gamble” ahead of series of state elections and also 2019 general election to hide the real issue of huge un/under employment in India. As par various reports, almost 12 lakh of fresh job aspirants are entering the Indian job market every month as of now and the economy may be producing only around 4-5 lakh new jobs much less than the overall numbers of job seekers. The present demonetization is creating more unemployment for not only in the grass root levels, but also at higher levels of the economy. Thus, this “political gamble” may be turned into a “political blunder” for NAMO in the coming months and that may be a real risk for 2019 general election, despite the fact that there is no “acceptable” national leader to the stature of NAMO as of now. In such scenario, regional leaders & politics may take the centre stage and investors (FII) may also lose faith in India. Apart from the impending India political risk, market may also look into the forthcoming Q3FY17 results, GDP and other macros & high frequency economic data in order to assess the real collateral damage done to the economy for the surprised demonetization. Against all the above headwinds, some Indian tailwinds may be there in the form of a “dream budget” for FY-18, direct & indirect tax cuts, RBI repo rate cuts of 0.25-0.50% (?), lower CPI and some stimulus out of expected “windfall gains” because of demonetization (some windfall gain in direct taxes) to reduce the “pain” of “Aam Admi”, which is so far deprived of any “visible gain”. But, still then, overall impact of the “headwinds” may be far greater than the “tailwinds” and eventually, Indian corporate earnings recovery cycle may not only be delayed, but may also be degraded. Valuation wise, at an expected Nifty EPS of around 405 (?) in FY-17 & average PE multiple of 18 may translate a fair value of 7290 for Nifty in 2017. <https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-riSzbONd2JM/WFQW-gcgLNI/J0s/zdlj5htIPNU9zH-bYwZ08QHDe8I29BmWQCLcB/s1600/SGX-NF-WK-16-12-2016.png> SGX-NF <https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-pl3WxDBWM2E/WFQXCWJUm-I/J0w/8luKYxkVhRAjVElU0dAUZQdspp7cAbzWgCLcB/s1600/China-A-500-16-12-2016.png> CHINA-A-500 <https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-m941oL09tE4/WFQXEDMwKjI/AAAAJ00/U6H9QFBQrjUSTKNDQtcXW-GVJCo2-u8TQCLcB/s1600/USDCNY-PATTRN-16-12-2016.png> USDCNY -- Thanks & Regards, Asis Ghosh -- Kindly email stock reports at STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com For sharing knowledge -- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE. http://www.niftyviews.com/ Disclaimer :- "The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on their individual experience and perceptions and to share information with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members in investment decisions as equity investment is a risky venture.The administrator of www.Niftyviews.com just provide a platform for the authors to express their opinion and take no guarantee for the genuineness of the same."ANY member of this forum doesnt prepare or publish any research report; or ii. provide research report; or iii. make 'buy/sell/hold' recommendation; or iv. give price target; --- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Niftyviews.com" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to stockresearcher+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
[www.niftyviews.com:25861] Nifty May Open & Stay Lower Amid Ongoing Domestic Concerns Out Of Demonetization Fall Out & Delay Of GST And Strong USD & Oil
*Market Mantra: 19/12/2016 (08:30)* *Watch 8090-8040 & 8160-8210 Zone In Nifty Fut (Dec), Which May Open Around 8120 Today* *Domestically, all eyes will be on the pace of remonetization, any announcement of “stimulus” by the Govt to reduce the “demonetization pain” of “Aam Admi”, which may be so far deprived of any “gain”.* As par early SGX indication, Nifty Fut (Dec) may open around 8120 (-25 points) amid flat global cues. Although, there may be some relief in late Friday’s geo-political tension, as China is returning a “seized” US underwater drone hovering in the disputed South China sea and Yuan got some strength against USD for upbeat housing price data in China released in the morning today, overall Christmas/Year end holiday mood in the street may kept the market in a range. Back to home, as winter session of the Parliament got washed out without any meaningful work, specially GST is in the deadlock over demonetization led political disruptions and lack of political & administrative consensus on the dual control issue, all eyes will be now on the budget or any special session of the Parliament for passage of the final GST bill, if any consensus will arrive in the days ahead. But, such probability is very thin and Govt may be also virtually admitting that April’17 GST roll out may not be possible at all and it may be implemented “any time” between April-Sep’17 for “constitutional compulsion”. But, in reality, “political compulsion” may drag this vital reform (GST) further towards 2018 and eventually, it may be only implemented after 2019 general election as Indian economy may not take two successive disruptions out of demonetization and GST at a time. Apart from the Q4FY17 earnings, all eyes may also be on the Govt for any possible announcement of some “fiscal stimulus” in the New Year (Santa Gift) for the “common people” of the nation in order to reduce some “demonetization pains” ahead of UP election, which may likely to be held around March’17. Govt may also hint some further reforms in the forthcoming “dream budget” and to promote retail investments in an era of decreasing savings interest, may also scrap the short term capital gain tax in the budget apart from various other expected reforms in direct as well as indirect taxes. But adherence to fiscal math may be also a challenge in FY-18. Globally, all eyes may on the USD & US bond yields and bail out effort for the Monte Paschi bank in Italy. *Technically, NF has to stay above 8090 area today; otherwise it may further fall towards 8040*-7980 & 7915* zone for the day (under mild to extreme bear case scenario).* *For any strength, NF need to sustain above 8160 area for further rebound towards 8210/8240*-8305 & 8340* zone for the day (under mild to extreme bull case scenario).* *Similarly, BNF (LTP: 18337) need to stay above 18285 zone; otherwise it may further fall towards 18200-18150* & 18050-17950* area for the day (under bear case scenario).* *For any strength, BNF need to sustain above 18500 area for further bounce back towards 18600-18750* & 18875*-18950 zone for the day (under bull case scenario).* <https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-9hUMmVp2_y8/WFdYfjNHJ1I/J1s/1l1bzp3LE38SpKbBBul-OpHD4Pxds6wRwCLcB/s1600/SGX-NF-19-12-2016.png> SGX-NF <https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-7BndyL9yT34/WFdYiKUC2NI/J1w/z9wGL4JjPnMSG787Mif9CEICYWvUkiEyACLcB/s1600/BNF-16-12-2016.png> BNF * * -- Thanks & Regards, Asis Ghosh -- Kindly email stock reports at STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com For sharing knowledge -- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE. http://www.niftyviews.com/ Disclaimer :- "The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on their individual experience and perceptions and to share information with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members in investment decisions as equity investment is a risky venture.The administrator of www.Niftyviews.com just provide a platform for the authors to express their opinion and take no guarantee for the genuineness of the same."ANY member of this forum doesnt prepare or publish any research report; or ii. provide research report; or iii. make 'buy/sell/hold' recommendation; or iv. give price target; --- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Niftyviews.com" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to stockresearcher+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
[www.niftyviews.com:25871] Nifty Drifted Lower In A Holiday Thinned Low Volume Trade Amid Lackluster Global Cues/Lower China Market & Renewed Concerns About Monte Paschi Bail Out And Ongoing Demonetiz
*Market Wrap: 19/12/2016 (21:00)* *Technically Nifty Fut (Dec @8127) has to sustain over 8165-8205 area for further rally towards 8345-8395 & 8435-8485 zone in the near term.* *On the other side, sustaining below 8090-8040 zone, NF may further fall towards 7980-7900 & 7840-7645 area in the short term.* Nifty Fut (Dec) today closed around 8127 (-19 points), almost flat (-0.24%) after making a session high of 8149 and late day low of 8113 in a lacklustre day of trading marked by holiday thinned low volumes and tepid global cues. Indian market today opened in a negative note and drifted further lower amid pressure on China market (-0.5%) and renewed concerns on Monte Paschi bailout efforts. China market was under pressure may be because of the “currency curbs” (USD) to stem Yuan’s growing weakness (outflow concerns). Along with the “outflow control” by PBOC, upbeat housing price data and its return of the “seized” US drone has helped some drops in USDCNY. EU market was also under pressure after scramble in Monte Paschi Shares sale and the disgruntled Italian bank was down by nearly 8% in the noon trade; although it’s now almost certain that if the bank is unable to find any suitable investors for its planned share sales, then Italian Govt will bail it out eventually by this month, as ECB time is running out fast. In tomorrow’s BOJ meet, Kuroda is expected to stay pat after huge devaluation of around 11% for the Yen in the last few weeks, since 8^th Nov, after Trump’s victory speech. All focus will be on the Kuroda’s presser and Q&A to have an idea about BOJ’s thinking for 2017 after recent upbeat Japanese economic data and exports on the back of a depreciated currency (Yen). BOJ may be less “dovish” in 2017 and may also hints for any tightening (rate hike to zero from negative) in order to steepen the JGY yield curve and to keep policy parity with Fed, which is also on the hawkish path and concern may be on Chinese Yuan devaluation. Incidentally, due to negative bond yields, Japanese banks fixed income (bond) portfolio is under huge MTM loss, which may be also hampering their lending capacity for the real economy, affecting domestic economy. Thus in 2017, hawkish Fed and less dovish BOJ, ECB and also PBOC may ensure that era of “easy money” policy may be over and as the arsenal of the central bankers may be fully saturated now, they will likely to reverse some of their QQE in order to preserve it for “rainy day” and EM currency & financial market, including India may also be under significance pressure. Back to home, Indian market was also very jittery amid ongoing demonetization chaos and ever changing rules for currency exchange almost every other day. It seems that Govt is really in some types of confusion as nearly 14 lakh cr of the old currency has already deposited with the bank. Now, the big question is how much will be able to return to the public after so much planned regulatory hurdles and IT lens. The more time it will take for “redistribution”, India’s consumption story may be affected more. Today all eyes were also on NAMO’s speech in UP for any stimulus designed for the “Aam Admi”; but there was nothing except some indication for more times beyond the 50 days to bear the “short term pain” for “long term gain”. All eyes will be now on the 2^nd Jan’17 public meeting ofNAMO for any Indian version of “Helicopter Money” (fiscal stimulus) and an imminent announcements for UP poll dates, probably in early March (may be announced officially soon after 31^st Dec’16). Polls of the other 4 states may also be advanced to take care of the present demonetization led “public support” and stance of “war against black money/corruption”. <https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-cePT9sLSRKo/WFgaJqeAbTI/J3A/y1y2UhWqJdcy2gzUG1HYgaivklTSTRSRwCLcB/s1600/SGX-NF-PATTERN-SHORT%2BTERM-19-12-2016.png> SGX-NF -- Thanks & Regards, Asis Ghosh -- Kindly email stock reports at STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com For sharing knowledge -- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE. http://www.niftyviews.com/ Disclaimer :- "The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on their individual experience and perceptions and to share information with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members in investment decisions as equity investment is a risky venture.The administrator of www.Niftyviews.com just provide a platform for the authors to express their opinion and take no guarantee for the genuineness of the same."ANY member of this forum doesnt prepare or publish any research report; or ii. provide research report; or iii. make 'buy/sell/hold' recommendation; or iv. give price target; --- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Niftyviews.com" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving em
[www.niftyviews.com:25872] Nifty May Open Flat & Stay Lackluster Amid Tepid Global Cues & Neutral BOJ And No Fresh Domestic Stimulus To Reduce The "Demonetization Pain" So Far
*Market Mantra: 20/12/2016 (08:30)* *Watch 8090-8040 & 8165-8205 Zone In Nifty Fut (Dec), Which May Open Around 8115 Today* *Strong USD, weaker Yuan & China market, neutral BOJ, some geo-political tensions in Germany & Turkey and concern of Italian Banks bail out may be dragging the global “risk on” sentiment today.* As par early SGX indication, Nifty Fut (Dec) may open around 8115 (-12 points) amid tepid global/Asian cues following some fresh geo-political tension and neutral stance of BOJ, with upgrade in Japanese economic assessment. BOJ sounds less dovish so far and all eyes will be on the Kuroda presser and Q&A followed shortly. In Ankara (Turkey), yesterday a Russian diplomat was killed by an shooting incident and Russia may take it seriously citing the same as related to its Syria issue. In Germany, there was also an apparent terrorist attack by a speeding truck in a Christmas market and there was also a shooting incident in Switzerland. All these sad incidents may be heightening the geo-political “risks” in a holiday thinned market with tepid volume apart from the recent incident of China’s seize and subsequent release of an underwater US drone. Although, there was some concern regarding bail out efforts of Monte Paschi yesterday, as par latest reports, Italian Govt may be taking necessary steps to bail out all the fragile Italian Banks by buying part of their equities and ECB may lend a helping hand for Italy Govt in this regard as expected. Back to home, domestic market may be under pressure on consistent strength in dollar index (USD) and US bond yields apart from the ongoing demonetization fiasco. As par some reports yesterday, Govt may revise personal Income Tax slabs by hiking the minimum threshold limit to Rs.4 lakhs/pa income. Govt may also slash corporate tax by 5% without any benefit of existing exemptions. Market may be eagerly waiting for any announcement of stimulus and hints of any “dream budget” this year from the NAMO Govt to reduce the “pain” of demonetization and Q4FY16 earnings. All eyes will be also on the Tata group of companies after some “dramatic” developments in the ongoing Tata-Cyrus duet. But, overall the “Tata” brand may be tarnishing as it was also a symbol of “trust” so far. *Technically, NF has to sustain 8090* area today; otherwise it may further fall towards 8040*-7980 & 7940-7900* zone for the day (under bear case scenario).* *On the other side, sustaining above 8165* area, NF may rebound towards 8205*-8245 & 8305*-8385 zone for the day (under bullish case scenario).* *Similarly, BNF (LTP: 18297) need to sustain over 18200* area today; otherwise it may further fall towards 18150/18000*-17950 & 17800*-17650 zone for the day (bear case scenario).* *On the other side, for any strength, BNF need to stay above 18450* area for further rebound towards 18575*-18800 & 18900*-19100 zone for the day (bull case scenario).* <https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-gqTB4dX5-dI/WFiqudNd5AI/J3Y/_stBiBjD5fQiPh9bnOnaZg6a8Pda7-P8QCLcB/s1600/SGX-NF-20-12-2016.png> SGX-NF <https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-id4xBtiLITE/WFiqzEoInjI/J3c/Q1ucNYj_T_M5Mg1Oqlb4cMEXpqATyPsMQCLcB/s1600/BNF-19-12-2016.png> BNF -- Thanks & Regards, Asis Ghosh -- Kindly email stock reports at STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com For sharing knowledge -- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE. http://www.niftyviews.com/ Disclaimer :- "The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on their individual experience and perceptions and to share information with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members in investment decisions as equity investment is a risky venture.The administrator of www.Niftyviews.com just provide a platform for the authors to express their opinion and take no guarantee for the genuineness of the same."ANY member of this forum doesnt prepare or publish any research report; or ii. provide research report; or iii. make 'buy/sell/hold' recommendation; or iv. give price target; --- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Niftyviews.com" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to stockresearcher+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
[www.niftyviews.com:25877] Nifty Dropped In Another Day Of Low Volume Trade Amid Strong USD And Dragged By Banks & Financials Due To Earning Concerns After Ongoing Demonetization Fiasco
as paid the loans in old currency to the tune of around Rs.66000 cr, there are now visible delinquencies and lack of fresh loan demands. Also, as par some reports, various investigative agencies & IT dept may also be looking into the issues of loan repayments with “black money” and it may be eventually treated as “demonetization deposits” out of “unexplained source of funds” and one has to be paid income tax on it (either 50% or 85%) and rest of the proceeds may go to the banks for loan repayment accounts. Also, as par some “confidential” reports, Govt may be planning to increase the existing income tax slabs for a “Santa Gift” to the “Aam Admi” shortly (by 2^nd Jan’17) to reduce the “short term pain” for the “long term gain”. Govt has also announced some more “Santa Gifts” by its “digital transaction lottery” recently. Clearly, with eyes on the forthcoming state elections, Govt may announce the Income Tax slab change “stimulus” shortly before EC will announce the date for the elections; probably in the 1^st Week of Jan’17 (state elections may likely take place in early March, in advance to get the “political benefit” of the “war on black money & corruption”). Also, a “dream budget” consisting of too much economic stimulus and tax cuts may be bad for India’s fiscal deficit, which may be already under huge pressure, if we consider the combined state & centre fiscal deficits; states are already reporting huge revenue downfall to the tune of almost 40-50% in Nov alone after the demonetization. Going forward, it may increase significantly as manufacturing slowdown will come in Dec-Jan after depletion of the existing inventories. We may have significant downgrades in FY-17 GDP & corporate earnings. Today market recovered from the low of the day after some short covering may be for the reason that in Chandigarh corporation/municipal election, BJP has got most of the seats (“demonetization verdict” win for BJP). But, state elections are not a municipal elections and looking ahead, demonetization led “political & economical risks” may be proved to be a “great blunder” for NAMO instead of a “master stroke” in a country, where “digital cashless economy” concept is very unfamiliar for most of the “Aam Admi”. The overall collateral damage to the economy and also to the national politics may be much more than the intended benefit. Intention of the Govt/NAMO to fight against “black money & corruptions” may not be questionable, but the method & implementation may be quite debatable with endless “pains” of the “Aam Admi”; it’s not only the issue of standing in banking or ATM queues, but also subsequent economic disruptions, especially at the bottom of the pyramid, which may be a great “political risk” for NAMO/India in 2019 general election. In 2014 general election, people had not voted for BJP, but they had actually voted for the leadership of NAMO and market/investors have also great faith on NAMO. But, this demonetization fiasco has brought the “united oppositions” again to the “lime light” from virtually “nowhere” just a few weeks ago and rise of regional politics may be the bigger risk for the Indian market, where GST and other similar reforms, like Land & Labour may be the actual victims of India’s “political compulsion”. <https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-lPw2j8xoUjE/WFlJHdmgSsI/J34/Ovuttd_vO2kW5LGHnOQj9He0WzHw14ZvACLcB/s1600/SGX-NF-PATTERN-20-12-2016.png> SGX-NF -- Thanks & Regards, Asis Ghosh (asisghosh.blogspot.com) -- Kindly email stock reports at STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com For sharing knowledge -- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE. http://www.niftyviews.com/ Disclaimer :- "The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on their individual experience and perceptions and to share information with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members in investment decisions as equity investment is a risky venture.The administrator of www.Niftyviews.com just provide a platform for the authors to express their opinion and take no guarantee for the genuineness of the same."ANY member of this forum doesnt prepare or publish any research report; or ii. provide research report; or iii. make 'buy/sell/hold' recommendation; or iv. give price target; --- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Niftyviews.com" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to stockresearcher+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
[www.niftyviews.com:25878] Nifty May Open Flat And Stay Range Bound Amid Drops In USD After Upbeat Assessment Of Japanese Economy & Positive China Market; But Domestic Headwinds May Continue To Drag
*Market Mantra: 21/12/2016 (08:30)* *Watch 8070-8000 & 8145-8205 Zone In Nifty Fut (Dec), Which May Open Around 8115 Today* *Domestic market may be confused by apparent contradictory post- demonetization currency flow figure given by RBI and there may be also concern about adequate remonetization in the coming days due to logistics issues; as of now around Rs.14.5 lakh cr of demonetized notes may have been already deposited with the banks !!* As par early SGX indication, Nifty Fut (Dec) may open around 8115 (+7 points), almost flat despite positive overnight record closing of US market and positive Asian cues. USD dropped to some extent, as Yen gained some strength after upbeat assessment of Japanese economy by Abe Govt (sounds little hawkish). Although, yesterday BOJ statement also mentioned about upbeat Japanese economic assessment, it was Kuroda’s Q&A comments later in the presser that BOJ will continue to purchase ETF and there is no thinking of any tapering as of now sounds like a “dovish” BOJ and USDJPY got some strength. In China, there was some ease of restriction for Stock index (ETF) buying and thus after recent spate of heavy correction; market may be recovering to some extent. But, growing geo-political risks in EU as a result of recent terrorists attacks in Germany, Turkey may be also a source of headwinds for the global market in the days ahead. Any confirmed news of bail out of the fragile Italian Banks, including Monte Paschi by the Italian Govt may also boost the “risk on” sentiment for few days/hours. Back to home, against this positive Asian backdrop, Nifty may open almost flat amid ongoing concerns of economic slowdown & political disruptions as direct result of demonetization. Any “Santa Gift” in the form of Income Tax rebates (revision of slabs) and other possible stimulus measures in the forthcoming “dream budget” may boost some market sentiment; but may also be viewed as a “populist measures” by the Govt keeping in mind to reduce the “short term pain” ahead of series of state elections, which may also cause fiscal strain on the Govt. Going ahead, market may watch pace of remonetization, Q3FY16 earnings, and ongoing domestic political war & any progress of GST. *Technically, NF has to sustain above 8090-8070* area today; otherwise it may further fall towards 8040*-8000 & 7980/7950-7915/7900 zone for the day (under bear case scenario).* *On the upside, NF has to sustain at least above 8145-8165* area for further rebound towards 8205/8225*-8285 & 8310*-8355 zone for the day (under bullish case scenario).* *Similarly, BNF (LTP: 18131) has to sustain above 18025-17980* area; otherwise it may further fall towards 17900*-17800 & 17650*-17600 zone for the day (under bear case scenario).* *On the other side, sustaining above 18375-18425* area, BNF may further rebound towards 18550*-18675 & 18775*-18925 zone for the day (under bullish case scenario).* <https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-f071UgfNkbI/WFn7j3FjfTI/J4Q/tKVtxU3TguE12A1WJZyKe_S6zpsKf6oWgCLcB/s1600/SGX-NF-21-12-2016.png> SGX-NF <https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-uzyJE7741E0/WFn7liFtomI/J4U/BOTVXHLwbZggm3F1Drz-XohbdP3XLeLHwCLcB/s1600/BNF-20-12-2016.png> BNF -- Thanks & Regards, Asis Ghosh -- Kindly email stock reports at STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com For sharing knowledge -- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE. http://www.niftyviews.com/ Disclaimer :- "The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on their individual experience and perceptions and to share information with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members in investment decisions as equity investment is a risky venture.The administrator of www.Niftyviews.com just provide a platform for the authors to express their opinion and take no guarantee for the genuineness of the same."ANY member of this forum doesnt prepare or publish any research report; or ii. provide research report; or iii. make 'buy/sell/hold' recommendation; or iv. give price target; --- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Niftyviews.com" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to stockresearcher+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
[www.niftyviews.com:25885] Nifty Drifted Lower In Late Day Selling Amid Flip-Flops By Govt/RBI For Various Rules Of Demonetization & Remonetization And Tepid European Cues Due To Renewed Italian & Spa
e of the present “war on black money & corruptions”. But too much populist measures/stimulus by the Govt may also cause significant fiscal deficit for the centre and if we consider state fiscal deficits & the present fall in revenue after demonetization, combined fiscal deficits might be worst in the coming months. The expected burgeoning combined fiscal deficit may be one of the reasons for the FPI(s) to exit the Indian bond markets (G-SECS) at a record pace apart from the country’s “political risk” after demonetization combined with the safety of USD and perception of “Trumponomics”. <https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-6yYKtLuhiu8/WFqLBDZh-GI/J4o/F9--XOMboGspLjEOt7Ke73HgeC6vlc4nACLcB/s1600/SGX-NF-PATTERN-21-12-2016.png> SGX-NF <https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-UKSj8S-yMio/WFqLE3ZBLrI/J4s/K-HdMxrUwVcoYMuP3ZTSv7RrzlPyy1bFQCLcB/s1600/BNF-PATTERN-21-12-2016.png> BNF -- Thanks & Regards, Asis Ghosh (asisghosh.blogspot.com) NCFM-TA & FA Certified -- Kindly email stock reports at STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com For sharing knowledge -- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE. http://www.niftyviews.com/ Disclaimer :- "The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on their individual experience and perceptions and to share information with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members in investment decisions as equity investment is a risky venture.The administrator of www.Niftyviews.com just provide a platform for the authors to express their opinion and take no guarantee for the genuineness of the same."ANY member of this forum doesnt prepare or publish any research report; or ii. provide research report; or iii. make 'buy/sell/hold' recommendation; or iv. give price target; --- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Niftyviews.com" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to stockresearcher+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
[www.niftyviews.com:25887] Nifty May Open & Stay Lower Amid Tepid Global Cues As Dow-20k Remains Elusive On The Back Of YE Profit Taking; Domestically, All Eyes Will Be On Today’s GST Meeting & Ongoin
*Market Mantra: 22/12/2016 (08:30)* *Watch 8040-7980 & 8135-8210 Zone In Nifty Fut (Dec), Which May Open Around 8050 Today* *Banks may be under pressure for not only demonetization related woes and expected dip in NIM; but also from the proposed change in accounting norms (Ind-AS-109) to be effective from April’18, which may hurt its earnings significantly for the short term due to computation of “expected credit loses” (ECL).* *Hawkish RBI minutes may also drag the sentiment of the domestic market.* As par early SGX indication, Nifty Fut (Dec) may open around 8050 (-27 points), slightly in negative note following tepid global cues and some fall in oil. Although, US existing home sales came yesterday was better than expected, it failed to yield any significant positive impact on USD and some yearend profit booking may cause the Dow to fall by some extent (-0.19%) as the “much awaited historical milestone” of 20k remains elusive by some small distance. Oil was also under pressure after larger than expected inventory drawdown. China market is also under some pressure as concern over bond market & some defaults continues. Globally, all eyes will be the bailout effort of Monte Paschi & other Italian banks by the Govt there, as private investors are apparently not so much interested as of now. Global market will also keenly watch today’s last data deluge before the Christmas holidays (US GDP, Personal Consumption, Core PCE & Durable goods order) to have an assessment about the core strength of the US economy to withstand successive rate hikes next year (3 dot plots as par Fed so far). Back to home, all eyes will be on the demonetization & remonetization fiasco, ongoing political battle, eyeing for not only the 2017 series of state elections, but also the 2019 general election.; if demonetization is successful, then there may be no “concerns” for NAMO in 2019 election; but if it fails and bring more chaos, unemployment and economic slowdown, then RAGA & Co may have the last laugh. All eyes will be also on the GST meeting today for any consensus; but hope is very low for an April’17 roll out of the GST this time; may be the expectation will be shifted towards Sep’17 now. *_Hints for actionable trade ideas:_* *Technically, NF has to sustain over 8040 zone today; otherwise it may further fall towards 7980-7915* & 7875*-7835 area for the day (under bear case scenario).* *On the other side, sustaining above 8075 area, NF may rebound towards 8105/8135*-8185 & 8210*-8275 zone for the day (under bullish case scenario).* *Similarly, BNF (LTP: 18095) has to sustain over 17980 area today; otherwise it may further fall towards 17900*-17800 & 17730-17600* zone for the day (bear case scenario).* *On the other side, sustaining above 18250 zone, BNF may further rebound towards 18400*-18500 & 18650*-18850 area for the day (bullish case scenario).* <https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-2S-_f-hBzmU/WFtN5kCugWI/J5I/d2cdK4meFOsAdTuF2CK6Bl69bpCJC00mACLcB/s1600/SGX-NF-22-12-2016.png> SGX-NF <https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-izGzgdGzl2s/WFtN7unAZtI/J5M/W44BOsoJuNwVzhK4pLAXvD6Otd_uRm3qQCLcB/s1600/BNF-21-12-2016.png> BNF * * -- Thanks & Regards, Asis Ghosh -- Kindly email stock reports at STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com For sharing knowledge -- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE. http://www.niftyviews.com/ Disclaimer :- "The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on their individual experience and perceptions and to share information with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members in investment decisions as equity investment is a risky venture.The administrator of www.Niftyviews.com just provide a platform for the authors to express their opinion and take no guarantee for the genuineness of the same."ANY member of this forum doesnt prepare or publish any research report; or ii. provide research report; or iii. make 'buy/sell/hold' recommendation; or iv. give price target; --- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Niftyviews.com" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to stockresearcher+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
[www.niftyviews.com:25892] Nifty Fall By 76 Points Following Tepid Global Cues And Ongoing Domestic Concerns Of Economic & Political Disruptions Along With Renewed Concerns Of FPI Tax Issues
the form of farm loan waiver and even transferring some demonetized funds to the zero balance PMJDY bank accounts to reduce the “short term pain” due to demonetization led chaos. But, eventually any “Rabin hood” like approach by the Govt/NAMO may be counterproductive and may also invite various legal challenges apart from the apprehension of populist measures by the Govt ahead of series of state election, which may also be interpreted as “fiscally loose”. India’s combined fiscal deficit math may also be in jeopardy as a result of decreasing revenues and increasing “stimulus” (desi version of “Helicopter Money”). Incidentally, Bitcoin may be the biggest beneficiary of India’s “war against unaccounted money” this month, appreciating by nearly 18% along with China’s outflow pains and some global flow towards “safety”. Looking ahead, domestic market will look into the GST meeting currently going on till tomorrow; although there is virtually no hope for any political & administrative consensus this time and also subsequent April’17 roll out, Govt may finally announce that next date may be Sep’17, considering it as “constitutional compulsion”. But, eventually, “political compulsion” may take the GST implementation date after only 2019 general election and also Indian economy may not withstand two successive disruptions both for demonetization & GST. Indian market may not be yet discounted for a GST after 2019 general election, depending upon the political outcome. <https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-J1PXgqAAVfs/WFvg7cVqRQI/J5k/1vGG9gsRfiQ4mIcpiLHKlHZxIlSvmb1owCLcB/s1600/SGX-NF-PATTERN-22-12-2016.png> SGX-NF -- Thanks & Regards, Asis Ghosh -- Kindly email stock reports at STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com For sharing knowledge -- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE. http://www.niftyviews.com/ Disclaimer :- "The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on their individual experience and perceptions and to share information with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members in investment decisions as equity investment is a risky venture.The administrator of www.Niftyviews.com just provide a platform for the authors to express their opinion and take no guarantee for the genuineness of the same."ANY member of this forum doesnt prepare or publish any research report; or ii. provide research report; or iii. make 'buy/sell/hold' recommendation; or iv. give price target; --- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Niftyviews.com" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to stockresearcher+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
[www.niftyviews.com:25893] Nifty May Open Lower & May Be Under Stress Amid Tepid Global & Domestic Cues
*Market Mantra: 23/12/2016 (08:30)* *Watch 7980-7940 & 8035-8075 Zone In Nifty Fut (Dec), Which May Open Around 7975 Today* As par early SGX indication, Nifty Fut (Dec) may open around 7975 (-30 points) following tepid global/Asian cues, strong USD and ongoing domestic concerns about slower economic activity & political disruptions as a result of demonetization. Overnight US market closed in negative after mixed US economic data yesterday amid holiday thinned trade. Although revised Q3 GDP & durable goods order came above expectations, jobless claims jumped and personal income & spending growth was also tepid, which may be an indication of adverse effect of a stronger currency (USD) in US economy. EURUSD gained some strength after upbeat comments by ECB about EU inflation & growth as a result of recent depreciation of EUR. Also, some hawkish comments by German Fin Min Weidmann that ECB may be behind the curve in normalizing its monetary policy and should not afraid to hike or normalize has prompted some bids in EUR. Thus, era of incremental easy money policy may be gradually over in the next few quarters, considering a hawkish Fed and even neutral ECB & BOJ. Although, there are significant geo-political and banking risks in EU, ECB may be forced to adapt neutral policy in the days ahead keeping in mind about hawkish Fed (divergent monetary policy). A strong USD is itself acting as “stimulus” for EUR and also for JPY (BOJ). EM and also Indian market may be the biggest looser for this strong USD and neutral stance of ECB/BOJ in the days ahead. Back to home, all eyes may be on the 2^nd day of GST meeting today for any further clue about its progress and implementation and also on the pace of remonetization & ongoing political battle. *_Actionable trading idea hints:_* *Technically, NF has to sustain over 7940 area today; otherwise it may further fall towards 7915/7900*-7840 & 7790*-7700 for the day (under bear case scenario).* *On the other side, sustaining above 7980 zone, NF may further rebound towards 8015/8035-8075* & 8105-8145/8170* area for the day (under bullish case scenario).* *Similarly, BNF (LTP: 17946), has to sustain above 18000 area; otherwise it may further fall towards 17900-17800* & 17725-17650* zone for the day (under bear case scenario).* *On the other side, sustaining above 18100 zone, BNF may further rebound towards 18250*-18375 & 18450-18600* area for the day (under bullish case scenario).* <https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-dRd8-E3ERig/WFygs08fZQI/J6I/xSoBdFOusO4iMiifMTV5biGHxxnaxh_9ACLcB/s1600/SGX-NF-23-12-2016.png> SGX-NF <https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-lV0N_6qChnI/WFygw_01efI/J6M/XbreTbuZcLUn-5PUCT6Ai2pGc3uPyv6RgCLcB/s1600/BNF-FIBB-22-12-2016.png> BNF -- Thanks & Regards, Asis Ghosh -- Kindly email stock reports at STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com For sharing knowledge -- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE. http://www.niftyviews.com/ Disclaimer :- "The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on their individual experience and perceptions and to share information with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members in investment decisions as equity investment is a risky venture.The administrator of www.Niftyviews.com just provide a platform for the authors to express their opinion and take no guarantee for the genuineness of the same."ANY member of this forum doesnt prepare or publish any research report; or ii. provide research report; or iii. make 'buy/sell/hold' recommendation; or iv. give price target; --- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Niftyviews.com" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to stockresearcher+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
[www.niftyviews.com:25894] Nifty Snapped 7 Days Losing Streak; But Closed Almost Flat Amid Short Covering Ahead Of X’mas Holidays & FNO Exp And Optimism About GST Roll Out (July’17?)
ar some reports, Govt may announce a tentative “next date” of July’17 for the same for the sake of “constitutional compulsion”. It remains to be seen, which “compulsion” (economical, political or constitutional) will get priority next time as everything remains the same, GST should have been implemented from April’17, if Govt did not surprise the nation on 8^th Nov by announcing sudden demonetization just ahead of winter session of the Parliament and in the process, further vitiated the overall political & economical atmosphere. Almost all the states are now suffering huge revenue deficit as a direct outcome of demonetization led economic slowdown and most of them may not be ready for implementation even by Sep’17. Thus, it’s high time to introspect, if the Govt/BJP is really ready to implement GST or not as its continue to be a political game of “ping pong” between Cong & BJP going on almost for the last decade. It’s almost certain that demonetization led economic disruption is transitory by & large once full remonetization will be done in next few months. As par some unconfirmed reports, Govt may introduce again a new 1000 note and demonetize the existing 2000 note shortly; but it may add more chaos at least for the short time, if the report is true. But, there may be long term impact on Indian consumption/demand by at least 30% because of “war on black/unaccounted money”. Traditionally, India is a mix of formal & informal economy and even before this “surgical strike” on the “informal economy”, there was gradual transition from “black” to “white” economy taking place as a result of various steps taken by the Govt in the last few years. Precisely, it may be one of the reasons for delayed earning recovery of the Indian corporates as consumption is being affected to certain level. It may also be another reason for tepid private investments apart from excessive regulatory and judicial intervention in some cases (2G/Coal & mining etc). Thus, it may take a few years more for visible resumption of private investments & an overall economic recovery and till that time Govt/Public capex may be vital. But, for that Govt has to create an atmosphere so that FPI(s) will stay in India rather than invest in their own country (US/DM); otherwise who will fund the “Shinning India” story? <https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-IlZXg_jTNFY/WF1CjTv7KGI/J6c/uJX0b5sF6REZM8UCgyoCqnAyaTAg8DjMQCLcB/s1600/SGX-NF-WK-23-12-2016.png> SGX-NF(WEEKLY) -- Thanks & Regards, Asis Ghosh -- Kindly email stock reports at STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com For sharing knowledge -- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE. http://www.niftyviews.com/ Disclaimer :- "The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on their individual experience and perceptions and to share information with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members in investment decisions as equity investment is a risky venture.The administrator of www.Niftyviews.com just provide a platform for the authors to express their opinion and take no guarantee for the genuineness of the same."ANY member of this forum doesnt prepare or publish any research report; or ii. provide research report; or iii. make 'buy/sell/hold' recommendation; or iv. give price target; --- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Niftyviews.com" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to stockresearcher+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
[www.niftyviews.com:25895] Nifty May Open & Stay Lower Amid Tepid Asian Cues And Renewed Domestic Concerns Of Taxation Issues On Capital Market & FII And Ongoing Economical & Political Disruptions Bec
*Market Mantra: 26/12/2016 (08:30)* *Watch 7940-7900 & 8075-8155 Zone In Nifty Fut (Dec), Which May Open Around 7960 Today* *Despite FM’s clarification yesterday about PM’s comments in a weekend SEBI event that there is no active proposal for LTCGT for domestic EQ market, some apprehension may be there that definition of LTCGT may be revised above 3 years from the present 1 year (i.e. there is “no smoke without fire”).* *Apart from a probable “surgical strike” on the capital market backed by “Benami Property Act”, FPI(s) double taxation issues may spook the domestic market in the coming days.* As par early SGX indication, Nifty Fut may open around 7960 (-40 points), following tepid Asian cues in a low volume market as almost all the major global EQ markets is shut today for Christmas holidays. USDJPY fall to some extent despite upbeat US economic data on Friday as it was largely expected in line. As a result of strong Yen, Japanese market dropped also to some extent. China market is also under pressure as a result of weaker Yuan & concern of capital outflow and some regulatory tightening by the PBOC. Back to home, domestic market may be under renewed pressure on the back of some confusion regarding FPI(s) double taxation issues and some comments by NAMO in a weekend SEBI meet on Saturday regarding overall tax contribution by the Indian capital market participants in the “development” of the nation. The overall comments may be indicating some “harsh” taxation plans by the Govt in the forthcoming Budget and may also emphasize Govt’s stance of “war on black/unaccounted money & corruption” not only for the “physical cash/bank deposits”, but also for any angle in EQ/Comm market “money laundering” issues. For the last few weeks, NAMO is indicating repeated warnings about more action against “black money” after 31^st Dec’16 and demonetization may be only the start of this larger action plan. Govt may strike against property or any other financial assets acquired with unexplained source of money and may declare it as illegal and freeze it after implementation of ‘Benami Property Act” and DEMAT account may also be one of the target for suspected money laundering. *Technical hints for actionable trading ideas:* *Technically, NF has to sustain over 7940-7915/7900* area; otherwise it may further fall towards 7840*-7790 & 7750-7705* zone for the day (under bearish case scenario).* *On the other side, for any strength, NF has to sustain over 7985-8015* zone for further rebound (NAV rally) towards 8055/8075*-8130 & 8180-8225* area for the day.* *Similarly, BNF (LTP: 17919) has to sustain above 17800 area; otherwise it may further fall towards 17650-17550* & 17450-17300* zone for the day (under bearish case scenario).* *For any strength, BNF need to stay above 18000 area for further rebound towards 18150-18275* & 18400*-18550 zone for the day (under bullish case scenario).* <https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-r-ySY5VqyA4/WGCUzgt3SqI/J68/4wp_WUYHw9sliMaGcrfnQetNE4YwBaR3wCLcB/s1600/SGX-NF-26-12-2016.png> SGX-NF <https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-6G_QqbSTl6k/WGCU3QgBEJI/J7A/5_OUgBP8wnQf9fYTAhYCh7TElKzv1mr6QCLcB/s1600/BNF-FIBB-23-12-2016.png> BNF * * -- Thanks & Regards, Asis Ghosh -- Kindly email stock reports at STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com For sharing knowledge -- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE. http://www.niftyviews.com/ Disclaimer :- "The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on their individual experience and perceptions and to share information with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members in investment decisions as equity investment is a risky venture.The administrator of www.Niftyviews.com just provide a platform for the authors to express their opinion and take no guarantee for the genuineness of the same."ANY member of this forum doesnt prepare or publish any research report; or ii. provide research report; or iii. make 'buy/sell/hold' recommendation; or iv. give price target; --- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Niftyviews.com" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to stockresearcher+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
[www.niftyviews.com:25897] Nifty Spooked By Almost 1% & Erased 2016 Gains To Close Around 52 Wks Low Amid Fears Of Capital Market Tax Reforms (As Indicated By PM) Coupled With Demonetization Led Econo
try like India extremely higher rates & complex structures of tax and too much regulations/bureaucracy. Grafts & corruptions exist in India for long time, not only in currency notes, but by also various others “novel ways”. Sudden decision of the demonetization just ahead of the vital winter session of the Parliament, waiting for passage of the full GST bill may also raise question of Govt/BJP’s own credibility about smooth passage of GST as such action in a normal circumstances (no runaway inflation, no huge currency devaluation etc) is bound to raise huge political protests and vitiate the whole atmosphere of political consensus needed for a smooth passage & implementation of the GST. Thus, the sudden decision of demonetization and Govt/BJP’s stance of “war against black money/corruptions” may be turning out for a “political war” not only for the forthcoming series of state elections in 2017; but may also be a “do or die” situation for the 2019 general election, applicable for both BJP & Cong/united oppositions. A successful rapid remonetization and an end to the people’s misery may boost the prospect of NAMO in 2019’ otherwise RAGA & Co may have the last laugh and more chaos. Now, all will depend upon the pace of the full remonetization (at least 80-90%), recovery of the economy as “Aam Admi”, especially those at the lower end of the pyramid may be greatly affected due to the immediate effect of the cash crunch. Thus, the sudden decision of the demonetization without adequate preparations for the remonetization may be turning out to be a “political & economical blunder” for the NAMO instead of a “masterstroke” and this may be the biggest “political risks” for India in 2017-19, unless NAMO wins this “political gamble”. It may be a “do or die” situation for both NAMO & RAGA, keeping an eye on not only 2019 general election, but also for next ten years; but investors, specially FPI(s) may not be amused for such uncertainty for long despite India being a “sweet spot” in the global economy and has appeal of 5D; i.e. democracy; demography; demand; development & deregulation (?). Apart from democracy & demography, the other 3D; i.e. demand/development/deregulation may be put in peril after demonetization led economic & political disruptions (short term effect). Also, there may be negative long term effect on the consumption (demand) as a result of Govt’s stance of “war on black money”, even after remonetization. <https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-AApB_SMoNQE/WGEuk9IvEfI/J7U/_zGSK8Z5qcwBnd4lu7CpKyn-asZ9rpsNACLcB/s1600/SGX-NF-FIBB-26-12-2016.png> SGX-NF -- Thanks & Regards, Asis Ghosh -- Kindly email stock reports at STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com For sharing knowledge -- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE. http://www.niftyviews.com/ Disclaimer :- "The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on their individual experience and perceptions and to share information with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members in investment decisions as equity investment is a risky venture.The administrator of www.Niftyviews.com just provide a platform for the authors to express their opinion and take no guarantee for the genuineness of the same."ANY member of this forum doesnt prepare or publish any research report; or ii. provide research report; or iii. make 'buy/sell/hold' recommendation; or iv. give price target; --- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Niftyviews.com" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to stockresearcher+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
[www.niftyviews.com:25898] Global Markets: What’s In Store For US Market In 2017 ?
h8-rRlPnVkx7HY-pV0HGFBD3YLcAFPQgCLcB/s1600/SPX-PATTERN-23-12-2016.png> SPX <https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-BH-_2IJ6rlc/WGE7uxui7CI/J7s/Ux-dkzA8BR8_-H-MBJQzrzE1QZoeBrzwACLcB/s1600/DJ-30-23-12-2016.png> DJ <https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-gIv_HeQuLnE/WGE7w-MXfNI/J7w/tEQ3MfMxft0KLnqffnxbrT5GsJe-jJq1ACLcB/s1600/DJ-30-PATTERN-23-12-2016.png> DJ -- Thanks & Regards, Asis Ghosh -- Kindly email stock reports at STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com For sharing knowledge -- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE. http://www.niftyviews.com/ Disclaimer :- "The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on their individual experience and perceptions and to share information with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members in investment decisions as equity investment is a risky venture.The administrator of www.Niftyviews.com just provide a platform for the authors to express their opinion and take no guarantee for the genuineness of the same."ANY member of this forum doesnt prepare or publish any research report; or ii. provide research report; or iii. make 'buy/sell/hold' recommendation; or iv. give price target; --- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Niftyviews.com" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to stockresearcher+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
[www.niftyviews.com:25900] Nifty May Trade In A Range Amid Flat Asian Cues And Tepid Domestic Sentiment; Yearend “NAV Rally” May Give Some Support; 7870-7840 In Nifty May Be Key Today For Any Bounce b
*Market Mantra: 27/12/2016 (08:30)* *Watch 7900-7840 & 7945-7985 Zone In Nifty Fut (Dec), Which May Open Around 7920 Today* *For BNF, 17600-17550 area is key support as of now.* As par early SGX indication, Nifty Fut (Dec) may open around 7920 following flat global cues after upbeat China industrial profits data & tepid Japanese CPI & unemployment data. As a result of below expected Japanese economic data, USDJPY is gaining some lost strength in a holiday thinned market and consequently Nikkei is trading in positive territory. But, bond market & currency turmoil (Yuan) has kept the China market in a slight negative territory, despite upbeat industrial profits figure. Oil is also gaining some strength as deadlines loom for implementation of the OPEC & Non-OPEC cut from 1^st Jan’17 and market will keenly watch the implementation aspect of the plan very cautiously as the past records of such production cut plan did not work well even for the short term. Technically, Crude oil (LTP: 53.32) need to sustain above 55 for any further rally towards 58-62 zone in the near term; otherwise it may come down. Back to home, a strong USD & Oil may be some of the external headwinds for the Indian market apart from the ongoing economical & political chaos as a result of demonetization. All eyes may be on the PM’s meeting with his official economic advisors today for an assessment of the domestic economy after demonetization disruptions. Market may also keenly watch any comments from the FM/Govt regarding the capital market tax reform and any other clues for further escalation of the “war on black money” after 31^st Dec’16. Among all these demonetization/remonetization/digitalization, talk of capital market tax reforms, economic slowdown and narratives of “surgical strikes on the unaccounted money/corruption” & ongoing political battles, there are distinct lack of any meaningful positive cues & progress of GST, which may have aided further dampened the market sentiment. That’s why market may not be witnessing any meaningful buying pressure despite significantly oversold. *_Hints for actionable trading ideas:_* *_ _* *Technically, NF has to sustain over 7900 area today; otherwise it may further fall towards 7870/7840*-7790 & 7750-7705* zone for the day (under bearish case scenario).* *On the other side, sustaining above 7945 area, NF may further rebound towards 7985/8015*-8075 & 8110-8185* zone for the day (under bullish case scenario).* *Similarly, BNF (LTP: 17678) has to sustain above 17550 area today; otherwise it may further fall towards 17450-17350* & 17200*-16900 zone for the day (under bearish case scenario).* *On the other side, sustaining above 17850 area, BNF may further rebound towards 18000*-18250 & 18350-18500* zone for the day (under bullish case scenario).* <https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-5MMKv6URKVU/WGHmZEhU4EI/J90/9YBaOOqEfVoj0amhpMYL_XiXdiiMYD3sgCLcB/s1600/SGX-NF-27-12-2016.png> SGX-NF <https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-BqfesOmrpEE/WGHmeImGrAI/J94/rgnWHjLYoyMHaaZmohXiBFYgS649FDcJACLcB/s1600/BNF-PATTERN-26-12-2016.png> BNF * * -- Thanks & Regards, Asis Ghosh -- Kindly email stock reports at STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com For sharing knowledge -- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE. http://www.niftyviews.com/ Disclaimer :- "The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on their individual experience and perceptions and to share information with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members in investment decisions as equity investment is a risky venture.The administrator of www.Niftyviews.com just provide a platform for the authors to express their opinion and take no guarantee for the genuineness of the same."ANY member of this forum doesnt prepare or publish any research report; or ii. provide research report; or iii. make 'buy/sell/hold' recommendation; or iv. give price target; --- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Niftyviews.com" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to stockresearcher+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
[www.niftyviews.com:25909] Nifty Bounced Back By Around 1.43% Amid Short Covering & Yearend “NAV” Buying By DII And Supported By FM’s Talk About Globally Competitive Indian Tax Regime & Some Reports B
*Market Wrap: 27/12/2016 (17:30)* *Technically Nifty Fut (Dec @8024) has to sustain over 8075-8115 area for further rally towards 8165-8195 & 8245-8275 zone in next few days for any further “Belated Santa Rally”.* *On the other side, sustaining below 8050-8000 zone, NF may further fall towards 7940-7890 & 7840-7790 area in the short term.* Nifty Fut (Dec) today closed around 8024 (+113 points) after making an opening session low of 7907 and late day high of 8045. Domestic market opened almost flat today amid similar global/Asian cues and Nifty attempted another break of the technically vital support level of 7900; but failed to do so as FPI(s) may have already covered their FNO short yesterday itself before going to long vacation and DII (s) may have today pressed their F1 button aggressively to pop up the NAV at the CY end (/on a lighter tone !!/). Incidentally, from next year, India’s FY may be changed to Jan-Dec on lieu of present April-March. Today Indian market may also get some support after FM’s assurances about a “globally compatible” direct taxation regime in India, whereby most of the eligible tax payers can pay their taxes in a low rate & simple structured environment without any undue harassment from the IT authority. Although, there was already a market buzz going on for the last few days that Govt may announce some reduction in the direct taxation slabs for the “Aam Admi” shortly, (most probably on 2^nd Jan’17, much before the budget) eyeing to reduce the “ demonetization pain” of the public ahead of UP state elections, this news of “tax reform” may have induced huge short covering from retail clients and combined with that, some value buying by institutions may be the prime reasons for today’s “Santa Rally”. Domestic market sentiment may have also improved today after some global fund houses upgraded their outlook for the EM assets, especially bonds for the next year (2017) after recent sell off (Trump Tantrum). India has a better macro economic outlook within its global/EM peers having stable & strong currency, adequate FX reserves, stable CAD and lower real bond yield differential (INR bond yield differential with USD after adjustment with the respective CPI). But, at the same time, various global rating agencies are not very inclined for an immediate rating upgrade for India due to its high Govt debt/GDP ratio, huge banking NPA/NPL (stressed assets), tepid private investments & stressed corporate balance sheets, lack of timely implementation of various vital reforms, such as GST. Indian market may also be supported today after another report that Govt may be seriously considering to hike the PSBS recapitalization fund for next FY-18 and also in touch with RBI for higher pay outs (dividends) this year (“windfall demonetization gain”). Market may enter 2017 in a great uncertainty with domestic concerns of slower economic activity, tepid earnings & GDP, political risks as a direct fall out of demonetization. There may be also significant global headwinds in the form of strong USD/hawkish Fed, China jitters, uncertain nature of Trump & his actual shape of “Trumponomics”, EU political & banking risks. Also FPI(s) taxation issues & capital market tax reform plan may drag the Indian market sentiment in the coming days. Against this backdrop of so many headwinds and too little tailwinds of “stimulus/dream budget/tax reforms”, any rally in the domestic market may be proved as yet another “dead cat bounce”, unless & until Nifty is able to sustain over 8200 zone consistently. Today’s Indian market rally was contributed primarily by FMCG (ITC), metals (Tata Steel), Auto, Pharma, ICICI Bank & Infy. ITC was on fire today after news of cigarette price hikes and better sales trend in Dec as acute cash crunch of the last month normalizes to some extent this month. Globally, all eyes may be on the US consumer confidence data and progress of bail out effort of Monte Paschi. As par reports, the bank now requires around EUR 8 BLN against earlier estimate of EUR 5 BLN and for a Govt sponsored bail out programme, Italian Govt may also be required to take the ECB/EU approval. Although, eventually, all Italian banks may be rescued by the Govt & ECB, the huge amount of stressed assets of around EUR 352 BLN (NPA) may be a cause of grave concern in 2017. <https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-gsSwEUuBp7E/WGJ4KvogIiI/J-M/HDM6SxV0WfYqgq0D24p0dGyHckWHS-boQCLcB/s1600/SGX-NF-PATTERN-27-12-2016.png> SGX-NF -- Thanks & Regards, Asis Ghosh -- Kindly email stock reports at STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com For sharing knowledge -- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE. http://www.niftyviews.com/ Disclaimer :- "The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on their individual experience and perceptions and to share information with othe
[www.niftyviews.com:25910] Nifty May Open Flat Amid Similar Global/Asian Cues; Further Pull Back Rally Only Above 8085-8120 In Nifty Ahead Of CY End & FNO Exp
*Market Mantra: 28/12/2016 (08:30)* *Watch 8050-7980 & 8085-8120 Zone In Nifty Fut (Dec), Which May Open Around 8035 Today* *BNF need to sustain above 18000-18150 zone for any further “Santa Rally”.* *Tax Reforms Talk By The Govt May Help; But Strong USD & Oil And FPI Tax Issues May Also Be A Concern Apart From The Ongoing Demonetization Led Economical & Political Disruptions * As par early SGX indication, Nifty Fut (Dec) may open around 8035 (+11 points), almost flat following tepid global/Asian cues. Overnight, US economic data (consumer confidence, home sales, Mfg index) was upbeat & better than expected and in the morning, Japanese economic data came mixed (IIP below estimate; but retail sales was good/above estimates). As a result, USDJPY is gaining some traction and except EUR, USD has some strength. Due to thin liquidity for Christmas & Yearend holiday, ECB has suspended its bond buying for some days and that’s helping the EUR yields at this moment. Back to home, after yesterday’s direct tax reform talks by the FM, NITI Ayog; i.e. panel of economic advisers of the PM has suggested more direct & indirect tax reforms for India to continue its economic reform and greater compliances & less corruptions (less creation of unaccounted money). Although, such tax reform should have been done long before the extreme step taken like demonetization as was also suggested by the former RBI Gov (Rajan), this will be definitely a positive step, if implemented in the right spirit. But, considering the present fiscal deficit scenario combined for both the states & the centre and a huge fall in revenue after sudden demonetization, it may also be very difficult to implement a significant lower tax regime in the immediate future for the Govt. For tax compliances, India need a robust IT infra and a social security types of cards as in a developed economy’ Aadhar Card & PAN Card may help, if implemented in a right way (data mining). Apart from the tax reforms, “stimulus” & “dream budget” talks and any further steps towards “war against black money & corruption”, market will also look into the monthly auto sales, PMI & other high frequency data for Dec to gauze the immediate real impact of the demonetization on the economy and Q3FY16 earnings & GDP trajectory. Demonetization led political disruptions may also hog the limelight ahead of another pay day coming shortly; but an apparent fractured “united” opposition may also be good for the BJP/Govt ahead of UP elections. *_Hints for actionable trading ideas:_* *Technically, NF has to sustain over 8085-8120* zone for further rebound towards 8170/8200*-8245 & 8295*-8345 area for the day (under bullish case scenario).* *On the other side, sustaining below 8050-8015* zone, NF may further fall towards 7980-7945* & 7915/7890*-7840 area for the day (under bear case scenario).* *Similarly, BNF (LTP: 17875) need to stay above 18000-18150* area for further pull back towards 18300*-18450 & 18700*-18800 zone for the day (under bullish case scenario).* *On the down side, sustaining below 17700-17600* zone, BNF may further fall towards 17500-17300* & 17200*-16975 area for the day (under bear case scenario).* <https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-5tnoIkRZoXE/WGM39_xpotI/J-w/zwsGQr1CzbwO2jKqETWImQAjLNiVQb6aACLcB/s1600/NF-PATTERN-27-12-2016.png> NF <https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-GawLKpyl6Zw/WGM4AOFW4HI/J-0/QoLE0uRUdBspT_ViPUc8ohSSI9OodQf5gCLcB/s1600/BNF-PATTERN-27-12-2016.png> BNF * * -- Thanks & Regards, Asis Ghosh -- Kindly email stock reports at STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com For sharing knowledge -- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE. http://www.niftyviews.com/ Disclaimer :- "The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on their individual experience and perceptions and to share information with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members in investment decisions as equity investment is a risky venture.The administrator of www.Niftyviews.com just provide a platform for the authors to express their opinion and take no guarantee for the genuineness of the same."ANY member of this forum doesnt prepare or publish any research report; or ii. provide research report; or iii. make 'buy/sell/hold' recommendation; or iv. give price target; --- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Niftyviews.com" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to stockresearcher+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
[www.niftyviews.com:25918] Nifty Closed The Day In A Negative Note After Sudden Late Day Basket Selling (?) Amid Concern Of “Uncertainty” In 2017
cB/s1600/NF-28-12-2016.png> NF -- Thanks & Regards, Asis Ghosh -- Kindly email stock reports at STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com For sharing knowledge -- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE. http://www.niftyviews.com/ Disclaimer :- "The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on their individual experience and perceptions and to share information with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members in investment decisions as equity investment is a risky venture.The administrator of www.Niftyviews.com just provide a platform for the authors to express their opinion and take no guarantee for the genuineness of the same."ANY member of this forum doesnt prepare or publish any research report; or ii. provide research report; or iii. make 'buy/sell/hold' recommendation; or iv. give price target; --- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Niftyviews.com" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to stockresearcher+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
[www.niftyviews.com:25919] Nifty May Be Under Stress Amid Tepid Global Cues & Some Apprehensions Over Reports Of An Impending “NAMO Speech” On 31st Dec To “The Nation” (?)
*Market Mantra: 29/12/2016 (08:30)* *Watch 7980-7940 & 8075-8120 Zone In Nifty Fut (Dec), Which May Open Around 8010 Today* *BNF need to sustain above 18000-18150 zone for any further “Santa Rally”.* *Although there may be some concern about an unconfirmed news that NAMO will address the nation on the 31^st Dec evening, drops in USD & Oil and extension of loan repayment days by RBI due to demonetization may help the market sentiment.* As par early SGX indication, Nifty Fut (Dec) may open around 8010 (-14 points) following tepid global/Asian cues. Overnight US market corrected by around 0.56% in a low volume holiday thinned market after disappointing pending home sales figure, which came at -2.5% against +0.5% estimate (Prior: + 0.1%). The sudden unexpected drop in US pending home sales may be an early indication of higher cost of borrowing coupled with high prices & low inventory. Thus, going forward, there may be some doubt, whether US economy can withstand successive Fed rate hikes and a stronger USD. As a result, USD & US bond yields drops to some extent and “Trump Rally” also fades for US stock market. Oil is also down for an unexpected inventory buildup in a private report. Back to home, drops in USD & Oil may help the Indian market sentiment to some extent, but an unconfirmed report that NAMO will address the nation on 31^st Dec evening, after demonetization deadline expires for exchange of old notes, may also keep the market in some kind of pressure ahead of various uncertainties in the new year (2017). *_Hints for actionable trading ideas: _* *_ _* *_ _* *Technically, NF has to sustain over 7980 zone today; otherwise it may further fall towards 7940-7915/7890* & 7840*-7790 area for the day (under bearish case scenario).* *On the other side, sustaining above 8040 zone, NF may further rebound towards 8075-8120* & 8160-8200* area for the day (under bullish case scenario).* *Similarly, BNF (LTP: 17866) has to sustain over 18150 area for further rebound towards 18250*-18350 & 18450*-18700 zone for the day (under bullish case scenario).* *On the other side, sustaining below 18000 zone, NF may further fall towards 17800*-17700 & 17600*-17350 area for the day (under bear case scenario).* <https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-6uQiO8Oyxe8/WGSIW5MjjdI/J_g/Ha3p2AaJScoF1N1U2BJr5AozweNSdt53gCLcB/s1600/NF-28-12-2016.png> NF <https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-OgCbjZ8tJbw/WGSIYKCfIOI/J_k/Ue0Qz1y8CoIVr_TBid8UPXkqUxwhw9iawCLcB/s1600/BNF-28-12-2016.png> BNF * * -- Thanks & Regards, Asis Ghosh -- Kindly email stock reports at STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com For sharing knowledge -- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE. http://www.niftyviews.com/ Disclaimer :- "The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on their individual experience and perceptions and to share information with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members in investment decisions as equity investment is a risky venture.The administrator of www.Niftyviews.com just provide a platform for the authors to express their opinion and take no guarantee for the genuineness of the same."ANY member of this forum doesnt prepare or publish any research report; or ii. provide research report; or iii. make 'buy/sell/hold' recommendation; or iv. give price target; --- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Niftyviews.com" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to stockresearcher+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
[www.niftyviews.com:25930] Nifty Bounced Back By 75 Points Supported By FNO Exp Day Short Covering, Fall In USD & Oil And Remonetization Talks By FM Ahead Of Another Scheduled Address “To The Nation”
ome “pain”. All eyes will be on the scheduled 31^st Dec’16 address by NAMO to the nation for any further “shock/surprise”. PM is expected to announce various remonetization measures, success of demonetization & public support for it, some restrictions on gold investments, application of Benami properties act and further steps for the “war on black money”, eyeing for the forthcoming state elections & 2019 general election. But, as par some unconfirmed reports, NAMO may also announce demonetization of the new 2000 note and simultaneous introduction of a fresh 1000 note for “public convenience” in an another “master stroke” against “black money holder”, as this time deposit/exchange above 50k may not be allowed at all without any other exemptions. If this “story” turns true, then it may be a great “New Year shock” and may bring more chaos, just ahead of another pay day (ATMS are still running short of cash and banks are still rationing cash withdrawals). <https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-0C2GA8XaEU0/WGUoY_0kJ1I/KAE/QpD2TecAPy0g-67LRJ5lhglDDkH6ycIKgCLcB/s1600/SGX-NF-PATTERN-29-12-2016.png> SGX-NF -- Thanks & Regards, Asis Ghosh -- Kindly email stock reports at STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com For sharing knowledge -- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE. http://www.niftyviews.com/ Disclaimer :- "The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on their individual experience and perceptions and to share information with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members in investment decisions as equity investment is a risky venture.The administrator of www.Niftyviews.com just provide a platform for the authors to express their opinion and take no guarantee for the genuineness of the same."ANY member of this forum doesnt prepare or publish any research report; or ii. provide research report; or iii. make 'buy/sell/hold' recommendation; or iv. give price target; --- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Niftyviews.com" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to stockresearcher+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
[www.niftyviews.com:25938] Nifty May Be Under Stress After “Santa Rally” Amid Rate Cut Transmission Pressure On Banks After NAMO’s “Mini Budget” Speech & Tepid Auto Sales For Dec
*Market Mantra: 02/01/2017 (08:30)* *Watch 8195-8090 & 8255-8335 Zone In Nifty Fut (Jan), Which May Open Around 8180 Today* *BNF need to sustain above 18350-18400 zone for any further rally; Below 18000-17950 will be more weak.* *NAMO’s New Year “mini budget” speech is clearly aimed at forthcoming state elections, especially UP, which may be announced shortly; but may keep pressure on banks for “social obligation”.* ** *All eyes will be on the Markit MFG PMI (India), further auto sales numbers and PM’s speech today.* As par early SGX indication, Nifty Fut (Jan) may open around 8180 following Friday’s weak closing of US market. Today almost all the major financial markets are closed except India and as such, domestic cues will be vital, although volume may remain tepid. Maruti reported weak auto sales numbers yesterday (16% MOM fall & 1% YOY fall in Dec’16), which may be a direct fall out of demonetization and “war on black money”. *_Hints for actionable trading ideas:_* *Technically, NF need to stay above 8195 area today; otherwise it may fall towards 8150-8090* & 8040*-7980/7940 zone for the day (under bear case scenario).* *On the other side, sustaining above 8235/8255 area, NF may further rally towards 8295/8335*-8375 zone for the day (under bullish case scenario).* *Similarly, BNF (LTP: 18196) has to sustain over 18350-18400 area for further rally towards 18600-18650* & 18800*-19050 zone for the day (under bullish case scenario).* *On the other side, sustaining below 18250-18200 area, BNF may further fall towards 18000*-17900 & 17800-17600* zone for the day (under bear case scenario).* *<https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-MfEdTTz4ACU/WGnN_iezSHI/KA8/9YKBt697Amg2WQlXOweUP-XT0V6AwI-ywCLcB/s1600/SGX-NF-30-12-2016.png>* SGX-NF -- Thanks & Regards, Asis Ghosh -- Kindly email stock reports at STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com For sharing knowledge -- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE. http://www.niftyviews.com/ Disclaimer :- "The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on their individual experience and perceptions and to share information with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members in investment decisions as equity investment is a risky venture.The administrator of www.Niftyviews.com just provide a platform for the authors to express their opinion and take no guarantee for the genuineness of the same."ANY member of this forum doesnt prepare or publish any research report; or ii. provide research report; or iii. make 'buy/sell/hold' recommendation; or iv. give price target; --- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Niftyviews.com" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to stockresearcher+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
[www.niftyviews.com:25945] Nifty “Snapped” 5 Day Rally; But Closed Almost Flat Amid Tepid Mfg PMI & Rate Cut Transmission Pressure On Banks And Mixed Auto Sales Data
“political risks” for the country in the days ahead. Technically, for 2017, consecutive closing below 7900, Nifty may fall towards 6830 and consistent closing above 8300, it may rally towards 9350 as of now. Apart from global cues, Indian corporate earnings and future guidance, GDP trend, pace of remonetization, progress of GST on the ground, political scenario and forthcoming budget may decide the next course of volatility for the market. There may be lots of volatility for the Indian market in 2017 and that may be an opportunity for both short term investor and a trader, who can act without any emotion and have professional knowledge, what & when to buy & sell (book profit). <https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-OrQDDOTeni8/WGptIyetyaI/KBQ/lWZP4dNam3cZUV_gH5qnscVSeCo7zhhnwCLcB/s1600/NF-PATTERN-02-01-2017.png> NF -- Thanks & Regards, Asis Ghosh -- Kindly email stock reports at STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com For sharing knowledge -- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE. http://www.niftyviews.com/ Disclaimer :- "The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on their individual experience and perceptions and to share information with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members in investment decisions as equity investment is a risky venture.The administrator of www.Niftyviews.com just provide a platform for the authors to express their opinion and take no guarantee for the genuineness of the same."ANY member of this forum doesnt prepare or publish any research report; or ii. provide research report; or iii. make 'buy/sell/hold' recommendation; or iv. give price target; --- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Niftyviews.com" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to stockresearcher+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
[www.niftyviews.com:25946] Nifty May Open Flat Note Following Positive Asian Cues Supported By Upbeat China MFG PMI Data; But Tepid Sets Of Domestic Macro Data After Demonetization May Be A Concern
*Market Mantra: 03/01/2017 (08:30)* *Watch 8150-8100 & 8260-8295 Zone In Nifty Fut (Jan), Which May Open Around 8190 Today* As par early SGX indication, Nifty Fut (Jan) may open around 8190, almost flat, despite positive Asian cues supported by better than expected China Caixin MFG PMI data (51.9 against estimate of 50.7; prior: 50.9). Domestically, all eyes will be on the service PMI for India to be released tomorrow after tepid sets of MFG PMI & Core sector data (Oct) flashed yesterday. On MOM basis, core sector data may be very disappointing even before the month of demonetization in Nov. Now, SBI has almost passed 2% rate cut from Jan’15 against RBI’s overall repo rate cut of 1.75% so far, all eyes will be on the RBI’s Feb monetary policy for an bigger rate cut by 0.50% (?). *Hints for actionable trading ideas at index level:* *Technically, NF has to sustain over 8225 zone for further rally towards 8260*-8295 & 8335*-8400 area for the day (under bullish case scenario).* *On the other side, sustaining below 8150 area, NF may further fall towards 8100*-8040 & 7980*-7940 zone for the day (under bearish case scenario).* *Similarly, BNF (LTP: 18031) need to stay over 18000 area; otherwise it may fall towards 17900*-17750 & 17600*-17500 zone for the day (under bear case scenario).* *On the other side, for any strength, BNF needs to sustain over 18100 zone for further rebound towards 18200-18300* & 18400*-18700 area for the day (under bullish case scenario).* <https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-XCjzYo4BEz0/WGsgUdvv0zI/KBw/BPBTRpgMDigALRaFTfFLIeyvcnB5FpyKwCLcB/s1600/SGX-NF-03-01-2017.png> NF <https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-6MX8NIOxqh0/WGsgV1JyxMI/KB0/RlqR-BLXHLca4n1TBCBLY50UPOuZMMp7gCLcB/s1600/BNF-02-01-2017.png> BNF -- Thanks & Regards, Asis Ghosh -- Kindly email stock reports at STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com For sharing knowledge -- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE. http://www.niftyviews.com/ Disclaimer :- "The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on their individual experience and perceptions and to share information with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members in investment decisions as equity investment is a risky venture.The administrator of www.Niftyviews.com just provide a platform for the authors to express their opinion and take no guarantee for the genuineness of the same."ANY member of this forum doesnt prepare or publish any research report; or ii. provide research report; or iii. make 'buy/sell/hold' recommendation; or iv. give price target; --- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Niftyviews.com" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to stockresearcher+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
[www.niftyviews.com:25953] Nifty Closed Almost Flat Amid Strong USD & Oil Coupled With Tepid Domestic Macros Despite Positive Global Cues Supported By Strong China & EU PMI Data
not be any “stimulus” for the Indian market in the coming days as hopes for earning recovery is also in peril after sudden decision of demonetization. GDP may also fall by around 2% in FY-17. Moreover, considering the surge in US bond yields, strong USD and a hawkish Fed ready for three hikes in 2017, it may be very difficult for the RBI also to cut more than 0.25% in Feb, despite favourable inflation & lower growth matrix. As par some reports, food inflation may also spike after Jan’17 on the back of lower productions in Nov-Dec period after demonetization. <https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-GuKeBW8cNC4/WGvE4YEZTyI/KCM/SecnN0vicrM5a3q2lr8bB5-ADnxW046nACLcB/s1600/SGX-NF-PATTERN-03-01-2017.png> SGX-NF -- Thanks & Regards, Asis Ghosh -- Kindly email stock reports at STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com For sharing knowledge -- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE. http://www.niftyviews.com/ Disclaimer :- "The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on their individual experience and perceptions and to share information with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members in investment decisions as equity investment is a risky venture.The administrator of www.Niftyviews.com just provide a platform for the authors to express their opinion and take no guarantee for the genuineness of the same."ANY member of this forum doesnt prepare or publish any research report; or ii. provide research report; or iii. make 'buy/sell/hold' recommendation; or iv. give price target; --- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Niftyviews.com" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to stockresearcher+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
[www.niftyviews.com:25954] Nifty May Open In Positive Tone Following Similar Global Cues; All Eyes May Be On The Service PMI & EC Announcement Of State Poll Dates And Progress Of GST
*Market Mantra: 04/01/2017 (08:30)* *Watch 8150-8100 & 8265-8310 Zone In Nifty Fut (Jan), Which May Open Around 8200 Today* *Strength of USD may be a concern; but overnight fall in oil may also help; Market may also watch political developments & consensus for GST as a result of demonetization ahead of series of state elections.* As par early SGX indication, Nifty Fut (Jan) may open around 8200, almost flat following positive global/Asian cues. Overnight, US market, although closed around 0.60% higher; it came of the highs amid sudden fall in oil and retracements of USD/US bond yields. Although, yesterday’s US economic data (ISM MFG PMI, Construction spending) was upbeat and came above market estimates, USD/US bond yields fall from the high, may be market is somehow skeptical about Friday’s NFP job data and wage growth. Thus, there may be some profit booking in long USD ahead of FOMC minutes today and also ISM Non-MFG PMI and NFP data in the coming days. Although, Oil was initially higher yesterday as Kuwait & Oman confirmed about their part of production cut, Kurdish region (Iraq) and Libya are reportedly pumping (exporting) more oil and as market is always very skeptical about OPEC’s ability to implement & maintain any production accord, oil fall from the 14 months high. Also, forecast of unusual warm weather in US in the coming months may hamper its demand as one of the source of heating oil (like Natural Gas). *Technically, Crude oil, which is now trading around 52.65, has to sustain over 55 area consistently for any further rally towards 62-70; otherwise it may again fall towards 49-45 zone.* Oil above $60 may not be good for overall Indian economy & the market. Back to home, after tepid MFG PMI data, market may watch keenly the service PMI data for Dec to gauze the actual extent of damage for the Indian economy after unprecedented & surprised decision of demonetization in Nov. *Hints for actionable trading ideas at index level:* *Technically, NF has to sustain over 8180-8150* zone; otherwise it may fall towards 8100/8080*-8040 & 7980*-7940 area for the day (under bear case scenario).* *On the other side, for any strength, NF need to stay over 8245-8265* zone for further rally towards 8310*-8365 & 8410*-8485 area for the day (under bullish case scenario).* *Similarly, BNF (LTP: 18071) has to sustain over 18000 area; otherwise it may fall towards 17900-17850* & 17750-17600* zone for the day (under bear case scenario).* *On the other side, for any strength, BNF need to sustain over 18200 area for any further up move towards 18400*-18600 & 18700*-18800 zone for the day (under bullish case scenario).* <https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-wJaPj6dsiwk/WGxwmiGb3II/KCs/VpRxGE68s5Ydj4caG80ZdEAllZmNesYZQCLcB/s1600/SGX-NF-04-01-2017.png> SGX-NF <https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-lrT92nqQH-g/WGxwny_OotI/KCw/4ZYJOYnRmVISD7tt3wPHRsnF2LvAMWYAgCLcB/s1600/BNF-03-01-2017.png> BNF * * -- Thanks & Regards, Asis Ghosh -- Kindly email stock reports at STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com For sharing knowledge -- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE. http://www.niftyviews.com/ Disclaimer :- "The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on their individual experience and perceptions and to share information with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members in investment decisions as equity investment is a risky venture.The administrator of www.Niftyviews.com just provide a platform for the authors to express their opinion and take no guarantee for the genuineness of the same."ANY member of this forum doesnt prepare or publish any research report; or ii. provide research report; or iii. make 'buy/sell/hold' recommendation; or iv. give price target; --- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Niftyviews.com" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to stockresearcher+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
[www.niftyviews.com:25960] Nifty Closed In A Lackluster Tone Amid Tepid Service & Composite PMI, Further Delay In GST And Probable 31st March (?) Presentation Of Budget As EC Announced Series Of State
edible CM candidate (name) so far. In 2014, people voted for NAMO as a credible “leader” and not for “BJP”. Despite irreparable damage already done to the SP by its “family feud”, UP voters may ultimately trust their “Netaji” and his son, the existing CM (Akhilesh) after all the drama. The UP verdict may be important not only for NAMO and his demonetization reform, but may be also for the Govt’s ability to carry on further bold reforms (?) in the years ahead. The forthcoming state elections may be a mini referendum for “Modinomics” and acid tests for the opposition parties as well, which may decide the future course of Indian politics for 2019 & beyond and shape of the economy & market. Globally, all eyes will be on the FOMC minutes today after upbeat EZ/EU & US PMI data. Also, EZ inflation is above market estimates, thanks to rally in oil and a devalued EUR. If, FOMC minutes reveal that various members are quite optimistic & confident about the strength of the US economy and it can withstand successive rate hikes (at least three) in 2017, USD will further rally (hawkish FOMC minutes). Everything being equal, USD is gaining strength as geo-political risks in EU is increasing, despite upbeat economic data (Hard Brexit, forthcoming elections in France & Germany, Italian banking & political crisis etc) and divergent monetary policy between Fed & ECB and other G-10 central bankers & perception of “Trumponomics”. A combination of strong USD, strong oil & domestic political risks may be lethal for Indian economy, already under severe slowdown as a result of demonetization & “surgical strike on the black money/consumption story”. <https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-lRAKVesXTNg/WGz_vU7-DAI/KDE/CBmU4HnnIpoX0Q6PElE_a_VRzNU3PjPBwCLcB/s1600/SGX-NF-PATTERN-04-01-2017.png> SGX-NF -- Thanks & Regards, Asis Ghosh -- Kindly email stock reports at STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com For sharing knowledge -- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE. http://www.niftyviews.com/ Disclaimer :- "The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on their individual experience and perceptions and to share information with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members in investment decisions as equity investment is a risky venture.The administrator of www.Niftyviews.com just provide a platform for the authors to express their opinion and take no guarantee for the genuineness of the same."ANY member of this forum doesnt prepare or publish any research report; or ii. provide research report; or iii. make 'buy/sell/hold' recommendation; or iv. give price target; --- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Niftyviews.com" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to stockresearcher+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
[www.niftyviews.com:25961] Nifty May Open Higher After “Not So Hawkish” FOMC Minutes; All Eyes May Be On The EC For Any Decision Of Postponement Of Budget Day After State Elections
*Market Mantra: 05/01/2017 (08:30)* *Watch 8195-8150 & 8265-8310 Zone In Nifty Fut (Jan), Which May Open Around 8240 Today* *Some fall in USD may help Indian market today; but tepid PMI data and uncertainty about GST & Budget day may also drag.* As par early SGX indication, Nifty Fut (Jan) may open around 8240 (+32 points) after FOMC minutes reveals “less hawkish” tone of the Fed regarding rate hikes in 2017. Basically, Fed will be data & Trump dependent and may “gradually” hike in 2017-18. Thus going forward, US incoming economic data and actual plan & implementation of Trump’s fiscal & trade policies may matter most for Fed and depending upon that Fed may either hike twice or thrice in 2017. So, in that sense, Fed will be “owlish” rather than “dovish” or extremely “hawkish”. Market may be still assuming that Fed will hike twice in 2017 regardless of “Trumpism”, if Fed’s own mandate of maximum employment and reasonable inflation/growth is visible in the forthcoming data. Thus, today’s ISM Non-Mfg PMI & tomorrow’s NFP job data, specially wage growth may be vital for USD before Trump actually take charge of the White House on 20^th Jan. Back to home, Govt may also shortly announce officially that GST implementation is “practically” not possible from April’17, given the present lack of political consensus and various other administrative hurdles (time is running out). Politics may take centre stage in lieu of economics for the domestic market in the days ahead amid series of state elections, which may also be seen as a referendum for “Modinomics” & demonetization. As, budget presentation day (1^st Feb) falls just before election start day of 4^th Feb, EC/Govt may be obliged to postpone it to a later day after election process (11^th March) and in that scenario, FY-18 budget may be presented around 31^st March. *Hints for actionable trading ideas at index level:* *Technically, NF has to stay above 8265 area for further rally towards 8310/8335*-8365/8410 zone for the day (under bullish case scenario).* *On the other side, sustaining below 8245 zone, NF may fall towards 8195-8150* & 8100*-8040 area for the day (under bear case scenario).* *Similarly, BNF (LTP: 17952) has to sustain over 18250 zone for further rebound towards 18400*-18600 & 18675*-18800 area for the day (under bullish case scenario).* *On the other side, sustaining below 18200 area, BNF may further fall towards 18000-17900* & 17800-17600* zone for the day (under bear case scenario).* <https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-LRMB2ee-_as/WG3CP7Kwt8I/KDg/b5ccxw7bdT4HM0Wnrv5Q2mUbfc6L-SBjQCLcB/s1600/SGX-NF-05-01-2017.png> SGX-NF <https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-cmcDct8s5Jk/WG3CR3M817I/KDk/GJhNDpjFz6c4Zp4NhzMzwQWtI61tp75NQCLcB/s1600/BNF-04-01-2017.png> BNF -- Thanks & Regards, Asis Ghosh -- Kindly email stock reports at STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com For sharing knowledge -- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE. http://www.niftyviews.com/ Disclaimer :- "The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on their individual experience and perceptions and to share information with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members in investment decisions as equity investment is a risky venture.The administrator of www.Niftyviews.com just provide a platform for the authors to express their opinion and take no guarantee for the genuineness of the same."ANY member of this forum doesnt prepare or publish any research report; or ii. provide research report; or iii. make 'buy/sell/hold' recommendation; or iv. give price target; --- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Niftyviews.com" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to stockresearcher+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
[www.niftyviews.com:25965] Nifty Rallied By Almost 1% After “Cautious/Owlish” FOMC Minutes & Fall In USD And FM’s Comments That FY-17 Revenue Collection May Exceed Budget Estimates
nk accounts, suspected for money laundering or even consider some types of BTT in the forthcoming budget. Eventually, redistribution or rebuilding of “wealth/black money” may take several years and until then, Indian consumption & consumer confidence may remain very tepid. Now, after 2 months, acute cash crunch may be receding in metro areas and gradually, cash flow to the rural & semi-urban areas should improve, but it may take more time for the revival of stability in the supply chain and till that, PMI may also be in the contraction zone as of now. The real pain or gain of demonetization may be felt only after 3-6 months after initial disruptions. <https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-KZUxoqzFLZE/WG5ftZCnunI/KEA/vRBlNM-1MpMuPKzmbKUDbeUG3bubkkbSACLcB/s1600/SGX-NF-PATTERN-05-01-2017.png> SGX-NF -- Thanks & Regards, Asis Ghosh -- Kindly email stock reports at STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com For sharing knowledge -- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE. http://www.niftyviews.com/ Disclaimer :- "The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on their individual experience and perceptions and to share information with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members in investment decisions as equity investment is a risky venture.The administrator of www.Niftyviews.com just provide a platform for the authors to express their opinion and take no guarantee for the genuineness of the same."ANY member of this forum doesnt prepare or publish any research report; or ii. provide research report; or iii. make 'buy/sell/hold' recommendation; or iv. give price target; --- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Niftyviews.com" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to stockresearcher+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
[www.niftyviews.com:25966] Nifty May Open In Upbeat Tone Amid Some Weakness In USD Following Concerns For Today’s US NFP Job Data; Domestically All Eyes May Be On The De & Remonetization Data/Politics
*Market Mantra: 06/01/2017 (08:30)* *Watch 8290-8240 & 8335-8375 Zone In Nifty Fut (Jan), Which May Open Around 8310 Today* *Reports of plea of some “fresh evidence” in the SC for the Sahara/Birla case involving NAMO & demonetization related political disruption may drag the domestic market sentiment later on. * As par early SGX indication, Nifty Fut (Jan) may open around 8310 (+22 points) following flat global/Asian cues; but supported by some weakness in the USD following overnight mixed US economic data. Basically, market is bracing for an weaker US NFP job data later in the day after yesterday’s tepid ADP, Challenger & employment portion of the Non-Mfg ISM data; although ISM Non-Mfg PMI came good at 57.2 against estimate of 56.6 (Prior: 57.2). Although various recent US economic reports & monthly auto sales figure are quite upbeat, USD has already rallied after “Trumpism” and any slight weakness in incoming US economic data may be proving as another reason for long unwinding/fresh short at record high USD level. In that sense, today’s US NFP job data may be very important for short term direction of USD/US bond yields (estimate: 178k against prior 178k; Avg hourly earnings: +0.3% against prior -0.1%; unemployment rate: 4.7% against prior 4.6%). Market will keenly watch the growth in average hourly earnings, which may be vital for much awaited wage inflation in US. Back to home, all eyes may be on the EC for any change in budget preparation date and also on the demonetization led political war/disruptions, apart from the start of result season from next week. *Hints for actionable trading ideas at index level:* *Technically, NF has to sustain over 8335 zone for further rally towards 8375-8410* & 8485*-8545 area for the day (under bullish case scenario).* *On the other side, sustaining below 8290 zone, NF may further fall towards 8240*-8175 & 8125*-8040 area for the day (under bear case scenario).* *Similarly, BNF (LTP: 18144) has to sustain over 18250 area for any further rally towards 18400*-18575 & 18650*-18800 zone for the day (under bullish case scenario).* *On the other side, sustaining below 18200 zone, BNF may further fall towards 18000*-17900 & 17800*-17600 area for the day (under bear case scenario).* *Some reports that RBI may not be obliged to cut rate in Feb may hurt the sentiment for the banks & the rate sensitive sectors.* <https://4.bp.blogspot.com/--0YZoQYz5bc/WG8TyqFyusI/KEY/Mr-MlP847FMtUc4qH4Xhpn3SgKOa3NgKACLcB/s1600/SGX-NF-06-01-2017.png> SGX-NF <https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-lm01OueCRFo/WG8T0S07DQI/KEc/8tTePCIs5hYq6hBSVW_guxs5gWPc2-W-QCLcB/s1600/BNF-05-01-2017.png> BNF * * -- Thanks & Regards, Asis Ghosh -- Kindly email stock reports at STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com For sharing knowledge -- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE. http://www.niftyviews.com/ Disclaimer :- "The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on their individual experience and perceptions and to share information with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members in investment decisions as equity investment is a risky venture.The administrator of www.Niftyviews.com just provide a platform for the authors to express their opinion and take no guarantee for the genuineness of the same."ANY member of this forum doesnt prepare or publish any research report; or ii. provide research report; or iii. make 'buy/sell/hold' recommendation; or iv. give price target; --- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Niftyviews.com" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to stockresearcher+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
[www.niftyviews.com:25970] Nifty Snapped Nine Day Winning Streak And Closed 20 Points Dow; But Finished The Week Almost 0.7% Higher Ahead Of US NFP & Q3FY16 Earnings; What’s Next ?
e coming days as par letter & spirit of the recent agreement, oil can further rally towards 62-70 level. *Technically, Oil has to sustain over 55-58 zone for further rally towards 62-70.* ** For India, a combination of stronger USDINR (70-72) & Oil (62-70) may be fatal apart from the headwinds of demonetization related economic & political disruptions. In the event of a stronger USD, RBI may not be in a position to cut rate in Feb despite favourable inflation/growth matrix just to keep the USDINR bond & interest differential at reasonable level to prevent out flows. Despite positive inflows by the DII(s) & MF (domestic SIP), almost 25% of the Indian market capitalization (equivalent to the RBI FX reserve) is dependent on FPI(s). As such, advocation of any tax policy against the interest of the FPI(s) in the forthcoming budget may be counterproductive and may be proved as also another disruption for the domestic market. <https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-VbW8ZTorktY/WG-tfxr55EI/KEw/fz1RB12pL1YpACVtB_YT2xHxN2GdLAoowCLcB/s1600/SGX-NF-WK-06-01-2017.png> SGX-NF -- Thanks & Regards, Asis Ghosh -- Kindly email stock reports at STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com For sharing knowledge -- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE. http://www.niftyviews.com/ Disclaimer :- "The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on their individual experience and perceptions and to share information with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members in investment decisions as equity investment is a risky venture.The administrator of www.Niftyviews.com just provide a platform for the authors to express their opinion and take no guarantee for the genuineness of the same."ANY member of this forum doesnt prepare or publish any research report; or ii. provide research report; or iii. make 'buy/sell/hold' recommendation; or iv. give price target; --- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Niftyviews.com" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to stockresearcher+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
[www.niftyviews.com:25975] Nifty May Open Flat Amid Positive Global Cues; But May Be Under Pressure Ahead Of Q3FY16 Earnings To Gauze The Real Impact Of Demonetization After Tepid GDP Forecast By CSO
*Market Mantra: 09/01/2017 (08:30)* *Watch 8295-8240 & 8335-8375 Zone In Nifty Fut (Jan), Which May Open Around 8265 Today* *Apart from start of earning season from tomorrow, all eyes may be on the Govt/Opposition & EC Stance For Budget Day; Reports That LIC May Trim Its Equity Investment Target By Rs.1 cr In FY-17 Due To Adverse Market Conditions May Also Affect the Sentiment.* As par early SGX indication, Nifty Fut (Jan) may open around 8265 (-3 points), almost flat despite positive global cues supported by Friday’s upbeat US NFP job data. Although, headline NFP numbers were not good and below estimates, the hourly wage grew by 0.4% against estimate of 0.3% (prior:-0.1%); on YOY basis, wage grew by almost 2.9%, which may be a record after June’2009. This, along with greater participation rate and significant upward revision of Nov’16 pay roll numbers may be an indication that US economy is gradually moving towards Fed’s goal of full employment and reasonable inflation/wage inflation. Thus, Fed may have no alternative, but to go ahead of its dot plots projection of 2/3 hikes in 2017, depending upon the actual shape & implementation of “Trumponomics” and as a result, USD/US bond yields has again resumed its upward journey after brief pause last week. Crude oil, which is trading around $54 is also getting stronger as market is more & more OPEC & Non-OPEC producers are confirming their part of production cut, despite some usual squabbling and probability of higher US shale production on the back of better price. A combination of stronger USD & Oil may not be good for overall Indian economy and the market. Domestically, all eyes may be on the duet of Govt, Oppositions & the EC for any change in budget day ahead of state elections. A “dream budget” probability this year may be one of the tailwinds of the Indian market for the near term and any postponement in this regard, may also dampen the market sentiment. For UP election, although BJP is now in clear advantage thanks to the family feud & excellent election strategy by Amit Shah & Co, it may be too early till now and there are various other factors for a state like UP (caste & religion based vote bank politics), appeal of a “young & dynamic” CM candidate like Akhilesh Yadav (BJP has no CM face) and last of all, demonetization related real pains & unemployment issues among the “Aam Admi”, especially in the lower end of the pyramid. Thus, it may not be a smooth affair for BJP also this time despite attempt of creation for a “NAMO Wave” by demonetization & “war on black money/corruption” (unlike in 2014). All may be dependent, how SP/Akhilesh camp quickly recovers from the “family feud” shock and get its act together for an election fight; otherwise it may be a clean BJP sweep eventually (positive for the market). Apart from, demonetization related concerns; earnings may be significantly affected in Q3 & Q4FY16 for shifting towards Ind-AS accounting standards (especially for banks as provision related norms may be severely affected). *Hints for actionable trading ideas at index level:* *Technically, NF has to sustain over 8295 zone today for any strength; otherwise it may fall towards 8240*-8200 & 8140/8120*-8040 area for the day (under bear case scenario).* *On the other side, NF has to sustain over 8335 area for further rally towards 8375-8425* & 8485*-8545 zone for the day (under bullish case scenario).* *Similarly, BNF (LTP: 18317) has to sustain over 18400 zone for any further strength; otherwise it may fall towards 18250-18100* & 18000*-17800/17600 area for the day (under bear case scenario).* *On the other side, BNF has to sustain over 18550 area for further rally towards 18650*-18800 & 19075*-19150 zone for the day (under bullish case scenario).* <https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-VF4W1w3U5zo/WHMHyGmZ-_I/KFk/k0K1sRShAZoq3Sv-XpvbLgjXjpktgDm0QCLcB/s1600/SGX-NF-09-01-2017.png> SGX-NF <https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-EpcbaI0VumY/WHMH0xby-cI/KFo/OY54sfru954XdH9bFM7X0_U4qfm1b73KACLcB/s1600/BNF-06-01-2017.png> BNF * * -- Thanks & Regards, Asis Ghosh -- Kindly email stock reports at STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com For sharing knowledge -- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE. http://www.niftyviews.com/ Disclaimer :- "The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on their individual experience and perceptions and to share information with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members in investment decisions as equity investment is a risky venture.The administrator of www.Niftyviews.com just provide a platform for the authors to express their opinion and take no guarantee for the genuineness of the same."ANY member of this forum doesnt prepare or publish any research report; or ii. provide research report; or
[www.niftyviews.com:25981] Nifty Closed In A Cautious Tone Ahead Of Q3FY17 Earning Season And Strength In USD Despite FM’s Upbeat Comments That “Demonetization Has Helped Buoyancy In Tax Collections”
50 may be one of the available high frequency data, which is pointing towards real slowdown (contraction) in the domestic economy after demonetization. Globally, USD is gaining strength today after upbeat NFP report (higher wages) on Friday. Also a “Hard Brexit” comment by the UK PM on Sunday has helped the GBPUSD to go down significantly, causing some strength in the dollar index. Despite robust set of recent UK economic data as a result of depreciated currency (GBP), market is concerned about “Hard” Brexit and UK’s stance on the key immigration issues along with EU’s insistence for free access of the EZ trade related on it (immigration). Thus, any “Hard” Brexit in lieu of “Soft” Brexit may not be good for the UK/global market as well as Indian market. For UK, all focus may be on the SC’s verdict there about taking approval from the UK Parliament before invocation of the Article-50. Another source of potential headwind may be China this year. Apart from the rhetoric of US-China trade war, Chinese Yuan devaluation and significant depletion of its FX reserve may be a cause of some real worry. As par some reports, USDCNY may be rallied towards 7.30 in FY-18 due to perception of “Trumponomics” and higher capital outflow from China. PBOC is basically now going all out to regain control of the Yuan before Trump take charges of the Oval office on 20^th Jan’17. And lastly, don’t’ forget Greece also; renewed concern about banks there and sudden surge in the credit risks is also dampening EU market sentiment today. <https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-BqQfzeG8Zr8/WHOWrYNIGnI/KF4/g7a_DVR-jGsMBgaan8TCO7qMDaBzFLVRwCLcB/s1600/SGX-NF-PATTERN-09-01-2017.png> SGX-NF -- Thanks & Regards, Asis Ghosh -- Kindly email stock reports at STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com For sharing knowledge -- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE. http://www.niftyviews.com/ Disclaimer :- "The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on their individual experience and perceptions and to share information with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members in investment decisions as equity investment is a risky venture.The administrator of www.Niftyviews.com just provide a platform for the authors to express their opinion and take no guarantee for the genuineness of the same."ANY member of this forum doesnt prepare or publish any research report; or ii. provide research report; or iii. make 'buy/sell/hold' recommendation; or iv. give price target; --- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Niftyviews.com" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to stockresearcher+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
[www.niftyviews.com:25982] Nifty May Be Under Stress Amid Tepid Global Cues Despite Some Fall In USD & Oil Ahead Of Q3FY17 Earning Season
*Market Mantra: 10/01/2017 (08:30)* *Watch 8295-8240 & 8335-8375 Zone In Nifty Fut (Jan), Which May Open Around 8260 Today* *All eyes may be on the Indusind Bank Q3 result today for a glimpse about extent of any real damage after demonetization and also on the EC for any final decision about budget date* *Watch 1165-1185 & 1125-1095 area in IIB on the result day.* As par early SGX indication, Nifty Fut (Jan) may open around 8260 (+7 points), almost flat following tepid global cues after overnight fall in US market (-0.38%). Sustain of Dow above psychological level of 2 remains elusive as “Trump day” getting closer and USD/US bond yields was also under some pressure. Oil also corrected good yesterday after reports of Iraq’s increasing output and US SPDR release (8 million barrel) in the days ahead. Also, increasing US outputs and more oil rigs coming online on the back of better oil price has kept the rally of the same in check amid renewed concern of supply glut. As par Kuwait, oil market may see “gradual” implementation of the recent OPEC & Non-OPEC cut agreement in the coming months rather than in Jan’17. Forecast of usual than warm weather in Jan-Feb may have also kept the oil in pressure (demand of heating oil may drop). Correction in oil/energy related shares was one of the main reasons for Dow’s fall yesterday. Back to home, although fall in USD & Oil may support the domestic market to some extent, apprehension about poor Q3FY17 results after demonetization and any “adverse” EC stance about postponement of the budget day (1^st Feb) may also keep the pressure on the market. Some truce in Yadav family and projection of Akhilesh as CM candidate by his warring father Mulayam; i.e. a “united” SP may be negative for BJP’s prospect in the forthcoming UP election and for the market also. Also, reports for the Govt’s intention for a change of definition in the LTCGT from one to three years may be negative for the market. *Hints for actionable trading ideas:* *Technically, NF has to sustain over 8240-8225* area today; else it may further fall towards 8185*-8140 & 8080-8040* zone for the day (under bear case scenario).* *For any strength, NF need to sustain above 8265-8295* zone for further rebound towards 8335*-8375 & 8425-8485* area for the day (under bullish case scenario).* *Similarly, BNF (LTP: 18321) has to sustain over 18250 area; otherwise it may fall towards 18140-18000* & 17900-17700/17600* zone for the day (under bullish case scenario).* *For any strength, BNF need so sustain above 18450 area for further rally towards 18550*-18650 & 18800*-19000/19200 zone for the day (under bullish case scenario).* *On the result day, Indusind Bank (LTP: 1159) need to sustain above 1165-1185 area for any further rally; otherwise it may fall towards 1125-1095 & 1035-980 zone in the near term (under bear case scenario).* *On the other side, sustaining above 1185 zone, IIB may further rally towards 1210-1240 & 1255-1335 area in the near term (under bullish case scenario).* <https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-cySmh6x0-co/WHRalhzhf-I/KGc/1eq3t1AibeQMEbCvxC9uN3yzgV-SoElxACLcB/s1600/SGX-NF-10-01-2017.png> SGX-NF <https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-b9QFUuki97A/WHRan0ltmaI/KGg/OYKwCwiRGG0h0MHhAfr7iwj7oLWfep6UQCLcB/s1600/BNF-09-01-2017.png> BNF <https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-JYUr6cB5JIE/WHRarntR6aI/KGk/YRWurs5J7GAZXX9ziQInBMuQIALhIPGXQCLcB/s1600/IIB-PATTERN-09-01-2017.png> IIB -- Thanks & Regards, Asis Ghosh -- Kindly email stock reports at STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com For sharing knowledge -- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE. http://www.niftyviews.com/ Disclaimer :- "The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on their individual experience and perceptions and to share information with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members in investment decisions as equity investment is a risky venture.The administrator of www.Niftyviews.com just provide a platform for the authors to express their opinion and take no guarantee for the genuineness of the same."ANY member of this forum doesnt prepare or publish any research report; or ii. provide research report; or iii. make 'buy/sell/hold' recommendation; or iv. give price target; --- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Niftyviews.com" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to stockresearcher+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
[www.niftyviews.com:25986] Nifty “Rebounds” By 47 Points After Two Days Of Consolidation Helped By Mixed Global Cues & Some Fall In USD & Oil And Hopes For Better Than Expected Q3FY17 Earnings After U
al transactions above certain limits in the forthcoming budget or even take the help of “Benami Act” for such illegal demonetized bank deposits. In both the above scenarios, vicious cycle of the Indian consumption story may take at least five years to revive again and in the mean time one can expect at least 30% fall in demand on an average, even after the remonetization as redistribution or rebuilding of “lost wealth” & revival of lost “consumer sentiment” may take considerable time. <https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-sI3rjIIAKGY/WHTyuiipniI/KG4/zCP_xogyUxkwQ9SS4nnijaQrVySfXdMsgCLcB/s1600/SGX-NF-PATTERN-10-01-2017.png> SGX-NF -- Thanks & Regards, Asis Ghosh -- Kindly email stock reports at STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com For sharing knowledge -- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE. http://www.niftyviews.com/ Disclaimer :- "The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on their individual experience and perceptions and to share information with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members in investment decisions as equity investment is a risky venture.The administrator of www.Niftyviews.com just provide a platform for the authors to express their opinion and take no guarantee for the genuineness of the same."ANY member of this forum doesnt prepare or publish any research report; or ii. provide research report; or iii. make 'buy/sell/hold' recommendation; or iv. give price target; --- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Niftyviews.com" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to stockresearcher+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
[www.niftyviews.com:25988] Nifty May Open Higher Amid Hopes Of Better Than Expected Q3FY17 Earnings & Poll Prospect Of BJP In UP; But Tepid Global Cues Ahead Of Trump Presser & Any Adverse EC Decision
*Market Mantra: 11/01/2017 (08:30)* *Watch 8320-8275 & 8350-8375 Zone In Nifty Fut (Jan), Which May Open Around 8330 Today* As par early SGX indication, Nifty Fut (Jan) may open higher around 8320 (+35 points) despite some fall in overnight US market and mixed/tepid Asian cues as market is waiting for any concrete plans from Trump in his first official presser later today. If its simple rhetoric like earlier (“We will build America great again”) without any specific plan, market may be slightly disappointed and USD will be more weak. But some fall in oil and USD may be helping the Indian market sentiment today. Also, yesterday’s upbeat result from Indusind Bank, even in the adverse backdrop of demonetization months (Nov-Dec) may be indicating that “all is not so bad” as far Q3FY17 earnings are concerned. But, going forward guidance & Q4FY17 earnings trend may actually dictate the market as various exceptions & loopholes regarding the usage of old demonetized notes will not be available after Dec’16. Recent Auto & real estate sales data and D&B Business confidence along with PMI reports are all indicating significant slowdown in the Indian economy as a direct fall out of the demonetization fiasco. But, market may be also discounting the perception that these are all “short term pains” and transitory and everything will be normal after Q4FY17 as almost all the so called “black money” has entered the banking system and not destroyed which may be eventually help the great Indian consumption story again. In that scenario, everything may depend upon the pace of remonetization & ease of withdrawal restrictions, Govt/IT stance on the modalities of applicable taxes on the suspected huge “illegal” demonetized bank deposits etc; i.e. the time for redistribution & rebuilding of “previous wealth”. *Hints for actionable trading ideas:* *Technically, NF needs to sustain over 8350*-8375 for further rally towards 8425*-8485 & 8545-8585 for the day (under bullish case scenario).* *On the other side, sustain below 8320*-8275 area, NF may fall towards 8225*-8180 & 8105*-8040 zone for the day (under bear case scenario).* *Similarly, BNF (LTP: 18457) need to stay above 18600 area for further rally towards 18800-19050 zone for the day (under bullish case scenario).* *On the other side, sustaining below 18550 area, BNF may further fall towards 18450*-18300 & 18200*-18100 zone for the day (under bear case scenario).* <https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-0-L2SP3ovKc/WHWs8D8r7pI/KHQ/P7hOq6LPA5sxr9SqaHlBGlg74CPlBANegCLcB/s1600/SGX-NF-11-01-2017.png> SGX-NF <https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-aFI11Bbnizk/WHWs-lQ67LI/KHU/L-Z5V6FPzMMSyqBWSViYC6sk77vCnUaZQCLcB/s1600/BNF-10-01-2017.png> BNF -- Thanks & Regards, Asis Ghosh -- Kindly email stock reports at STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com For sharing knowledge -- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE. http://www.niftyviews.com/ Disclaimer :- "The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on their individual experience and perceptions and to share information with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members in investment decisions as equity investment is a risky venture.The administrator of www.Niftyviews.com just provide a platform for the authors to express their opinion and take no guarantee for the genuineness of the same."ANY member of this forum doesnt prepare or publish any research report; or ii. provide research report; or iii. make 'buy/sell/hold' recommendation; or iv. give price target; --- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Niftyviews.com" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to stockresearcher+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
[www.niftyviews.com:25992] Nifty Rallied By More Than 1% Supported By Banks & Metals Following Upbeat Q3 Earnings By Some Pvt Banks Despite Demonetization And China’s Commitments To Reduce Its 9% Stee
*Market Wrap: 11/01/2017 (19:00)* *Looking at the chart, Nifty Fut (Jan @8386) has to sustain over 8405-8425 area for further rally towards 8485-8510 & 8545-8585 zone in the short term (under bullish case scenario).* *On the other side, sustaining below 8375-8340 zone, NF may further fall towards 8255-8190 & 8140-8105 area in the near term (under bear case scenario).* Nifty Fut (Jan) today closed around 8386 (+92 points) after making an opening session low of 8324 and a late day high of 8400. Domestic market today opened in a positive note despite tepid global cues on the back of “spectacular” Q3FY17 numbers by one of the Pvt Bank yesterday (Indusind) and better poll prospect of BJP in the upcoming UP election amid no sign of real truce between the Yadav families. Various upbeat comments about India, despite demonetization concerns in the ongoing Vibrant Gujrat Global Summit and “raining” of investment commitments by various high profile investors may be also supporting the market, at least till this week, when the summit will close. The sentiment of the market was further boosted by some reports that China is going to curtail some of its excess steel producing capacity. China will close all of its medium frequency furnaces, equivalent to around 9% of its overall capacity by June’17. Also, yesterday’s upbeat PPI data from China was positive for metals and along with that perception of “Trumponomics” and hopes for an imminent announcement of stimulus by Trump today has ignited metals scrips (incremental infra spending in US may increase the demands of metals in the coming days). But, global market is also cautious about Trump’s 1^st official presser today as it may be used primarily to defend his stand against a reported personal scandal in a 2013 Mrs. Universe show in Moscow. The Russian agency may be compromising this information with some credible proofs against Trump/USA; although this was vehemently denied by Russia today. Again, if Trump devoted himself to this scandal episode more rather than divulging any specific details about his plan to rebuild “America” by incremental fiscal spending, tax cuts, deregulation etc, market may disappoint and both USD/US bond yields and EQ market may further correct. Already market is quite anxious about Trump’s ongoing “Twitter Tantrum” for various issues, which is causing some unexpected volatility. Thus, politics & scandal may be in the forefront for Trump rather than economics and market is cautiously waiting for his presser today. Indian market sentiment was further boosted today after South Bank Q3 result today after yesterday’s upbeat Indusind bank numbers, which may be an early indication that despite concerns of demonetization, banks are not suffered so much as expected and all the other banks are rallied quite significantly today after recent under-performance. But, the apparent stability in asset quality and some other parameters & NIM may be coming on the back of huge demonetized deposits. As par some reports, an unexpected amount of around Rs.88000 cr has been deposited in cash (old demonetized notes) in various loan repayments, NPA/NPL/write off cases. This windfall gain for sudden loan recovery will not be there in Q4FY17 and subsequent quarters and going forward, Govt (IT/ED) may also take some action as it’s being seen as “black/unaccounted money”; necessary tax may be required to be paid on it. Also, benefit of lower cost of funds because of demonetization may not be there in the next few quarters, when withdrawal restriction will go off. Banks are now trying their best to lure it borrowers, specially retails & SMES to take more loans like in 2010-12 periods and this may be one of the concern for future stressed assets (high leverage). *Technically, BNF (LTP: 18830) now need to sustain over 19000-19200 area for further rally towards 20350-20650; otherwise will come down again towards 18000-17600 level.* <https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-cxnBgxcFc-E/WHZQV-YS7pI/KHw/unp5dhiO45ESvlvTbGgyZlaSjI3rzbJewCLcB/s1600/SGX-NF-PATTERN-11-01-2017.png> SGX-NF * * -- Thanks & Regards, Asis Ghosh -- Kindly email stock reports at STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com For sharing knowledge -- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE. http://www.niftyviews.com/ Disclaimer :- "The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on their individual experience and perceptions and to share information with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members in investment decisions as equity investment is a risky venture.The administrator of www.Niftyviews.com just provide a platform for the authors to express their opinion and take no guarantee for the genuineness of the same."ANY member of this forum doesnt prepare or publish any research report; or ii. provide research report; or iii. make 'buy/sell/h
[www.niftyviews.com:25993] Nifty May Open Upbeat Amid Fall In USD & Mixed Global Cues After Trump’s Presser Turns Into A “Joker Show” Rather Than Any Specific Plans For The Much Awaited “Fiscal Stimul
*Market Mantra: 12/01/2017 (08:30)* *Watch 8405-8345 & 8435-8485 Zone In Nifty Fut (Jan), Which May Open Around 8421 Today* *Pharma/Biotech/IT and metals also may be in pressure after Trump’s rhetoric and lack of any specific spending plans for infra to “rebuild America again”.* *Upbeat oil after Saudi plan of production cut and weak USD despite some supply gluts may be a concern for domestic market.* *All eyes will be on the EC (for any final stance regarding budget day), TCS result and CPI & IIP later in the day.* *Some hawkish comments by RBI Gov and concern for India’s high Govt debt/GDP ratio & extremely high combined fiscal deficit/GDP (6.75%) may also drag the domestic market sentiment despite huge enthusiasm by the investors in the ongoing VGGS.* As par early SGX indication, Nifty Fut (Jan) may open around 8421 (+35 points) following upbeat domestic sentiment (better than expected Q3FY17 results by some of the Pvt banks so far despite demonetization concerns) and some fall in USD/US bond yields. Yesterday’s much awaited official presser by Trump was actually devoted to defend himself against some Russia related personal scandal and prevention of hacking by Russia & China and other interested countries. Rather than divulging any specific credible plans to “rebuild America”, Trump was also busy for making a plan to build a wall along Mexico border and also slumped the Pharma/Biotech companies for unethical profiteering. In brief, the whole presser turns into a “Joker Show” at some point of time rather than an official briefing (Q&A) by a President elect of the world’s most powerful country. All these may be turn into a serious political risk for US in the coming months and there may be even an impeachment motion against Trump, if Russia related personal scandal turns into reality. *Hints for actionable trading ideas:* *Technically, NF has to sustain over 8435 zone for further rally towards 8485*-8510 & 8545-8585* area for the day (under bullish case scenario).* *On the other side, sustaining below 8405 area, NF may fall towards 8345-8325/8290* & 8230*-8180 zone for the day (under bear case scenario).* *Similarly, BNF (LTP: 18830) need to sustain above 19000 area for further rally towards 19200*-19375 for the day (under bullish case scenario).* *On the other side, sustaining below 18900 zone, BNF may further fall towards 18750*-18450 & 18300*-18200 area for the day (under bear case scenario).* <https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-UW5AnO2Ywqc/WHb9Ma0yOsI/KII/zOlTjl53fIQAFeqfc5k3NYz22XJOJjOOACLcB/s1600/SGX-NF-12-01-2017.png> SGX-NF <https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-8qcj5NediSQ/WHb9OGPbtqI/KIM/5nh6OZOJeeItnAbLTKFiUHIc42y_f0i-QCLcB/s1600/BNF-11-01-2017.png> BNF -- Thanks & Regards, Asis Ghosh -- Kindly email stock reports at STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com For sharing knowledge -- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE. http://www.niftyviews.com/ Disclaimer :- "The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on their individual experience and perceptions and to share information with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members in investment decisions as equity investment is a risky venture.The administrator of www.Niftyviews.com just provide a platform for the authors to express their opinion and take no guarantee for the genuineness of the same."ANY member of this forum doesnt prepare or publish any research report; or ii. provide research report; or iii. make 'buy/sell/hold' recommendation; or iv. give price target; --- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Niftyviews.com" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to stockresearcher+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
[www.niftyviews.com:25996] Nifty Advanced By Another 35 Points Supported By IT & Power And Some Weakness In USD; Looking Ahead, 8485 Area In NF May Be A Big Hurdle
sing oil may be also a concern. There is not so much moderation effect in core inflation of the economy (core CPI at 4.9%). IIP for Nov also surprised to the upside and came at 5.7% against estimate of 1.3% (prior: -1.9% MOM; -3.4% YOY). Experts believe this as the favourable seasonal & base effect as in Oct end, there were Diwali holidays last year and various factories were closed. The same may be also true for the current year (Oct’16). Also, higher petrol & diesel consumption because of use of demonetized notes exception may also be one of the reason for unexpected surge in IIP, apart from surge in capital goods, which grew 15% in Nov’16 against(-) 26.9% in Oct’16 & (-) 24.4% in Oct’15. Higher capital goods index in IIP may be an indication of corresponding capacity addition by the manufactures after record sales in Diwali season this year (Sep-Oct) to replenish the consumed inventories. Going forward, this may be tepid considering visible slow down in the consumer spending after demonetization. Overall, on cumulative basis IIP growth for Apr-Nov’16 came at 0.4% against 3.8% on YOY basis, even before demonetization in line with tepid projection of the GDP by CSO few days ago (7.1% from 7.6% till Oct’16). *Technically, NF need to close consecutively over 8485 area for any further rally towards 9000-9555 area in the coming months; otherwise it may again came down towards 8000-7900 zone.* Tomorrow may be vital after more than 6.5% rally in Nifty in the last few weeks as EC may announce its decision regarding budget day in the weekend and in the next week more earnings will come, which may help to gauze the actual extent of damage done to the economy after demonetization. <https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-fpSWgrkLi3Q/WHeq5EoosoI/KIg/Kju9aqBHGik2VR1KJ7ORNQg99TgGdo8ugCLcB/s1600/SGX-NF-PATTERN-12-01-2017.png> SGX-NF -- Thanks & Regards, Asis Ghosh -- Kindly email stock reports at STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com For sharing knowledge -- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE. http://www.niftyviews.com/ Disclaimer :- "The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on their individual experience and perceptions and to share information with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members in investment decisions as equity investment is a risky venture.The administrator of www.Niftyviews.com just provide a platform for the authors to express their opinion and take no guarantee for the genuineness of the same."ANY member of this forum doesnt prepare or publish any research report; or ii. provide research report; or iii. make 'buy/sell/hold' recommendation; or iv. give price target; --- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Niftyviews.com" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to stockresearcher+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
[www.niftyviews.com:25997] Nifty May Open Higher After “Good” CPI & IIP Data Yesterday Despite Tepid Global Cues And Some Rebound In USD Following Upbeat View Of Yellen & Other Fed Members About US Ec
*Market Mantra: 13/01/2017 (08:30)* *Watch 8405-8350 & 8435-8485 Zone In Nifty Fut (Jan), Which May Open Around 8442 Today* As par early SGX indication, Nifty Fut (Jan may open around 8442 (+20 points) after yesterday’s lower CPI & higher IIP data despite demonetization woes. Overnight US market was tepid, but off the lows following upbeat views by Yellen and some other Fed members about strength of US economy and prospect of rate hikes. As par Yellen, Fed is for higher US employments and decent inflation for US economy. Thus, despite disappointment by Trump’s presser, USD is getting strength across the board before retail sales data later today. Also, whatever be Trump’s political risks, market is expected his administration to at least announce some tax cuts and spending plan after he take over the Oval office. Oil is also higher after Saudi pledge of cuts implementation and improved demand from China. Also, today’s trade data from China is not so bad although export has suffered more than market expectation. After upbeat CPI/IIP & TCS result, Indian market today will look to Infy for its guidance as tepid result may be already discounted. All eyes may be also on the EC today or in the weekend, for any final decision about budget day. *Hints for actionable trading ideas:* *Technically, NF needs to sustain over 8465-8485* zone for further rally towards 8510-8545* & 8585*-8635 area for the day (under bullish case scenario).* *On the other side, sustaining below 8435-8405* area, NF may fall towards 8380/8350*-8305/8290 & 8225/8205*-8180/8125 zone for the day (under bear case scenario).* *Similarly, BNF (LTP: 18899) need to sustain above 19150 area for further rally towards 19250-19400* for the day (under bullish case scenario).* *On the other side, sustaining below 19050 area, BNF may further fall towards 18750*-18550 area for the day (under bear case scenario).* <https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-Kc4yh8iJ6io/WHhOI6emNKI/KJA/8Z4YFglKNUI92MadSo0dHp4gNUfvFPs6QCLcB/s1600/SGX-NF-13-01-2017.png> SGX-NF <https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-8dQAd7hFHao/WHhOKCNgcII/KJE/atu7MQ_hPQkg7lDjlj-CJiiXRSnoRnQvgCLcB/s1600/BNF-12-01-2017.png> BNF -- Thanks & Regards, Asis Ghosh -- Kindly email stock reports at STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com For sharing knowledge -- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE. http://www.niftyviews.com/ Disclaimer :- "The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on their individual experience and perceptions and to share information with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members in investment decisions as equity investment is a risky venture.The administrator of www.Niftyviews.com just provide a platform for the authors to express their opinion and take no guarantee for the genuineness of the same."ANY member of this forum doesnt prepare or publish any research report; or ii. provide research report; or iii. make 'buy/sell/hold' recommendation; or iv. give price target; --- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Niftyviews.com" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to stockresearcher+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
[www.niftyviews.com:26000] Nifty Closed Almost Flat After Trading Most Of The Days In Negative Tone; But Closed The Week More Than 2% Higher Amid Hopes Of Better Q3 Earnings & Poll Prospect Of BJP In
in gaining strength after upbeat comments from Yellen and in line US retail sales. Oil fall to some extent today after renewed concern of actual implementation of the recent OPEC & Non-OPEC deal and supply glut. Also, the overall OPEC production cut deal at this point of time may looks quite like a “seasonal” factor, when due to Winter season or production constraint, it’s a normal phenomenon; i.e. even without any formal deal, there should have been such production cuts at this point of time. The whole OPEC & Non-OPEC production cut deal may be proved as a “big bluff” in the coming days & looks “impossible” in a free market regime. Looking ahead, it will be very interesting if this OPEC “production cut” accord will be ultimately adhered beyond March’17 or not. <https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-zDLeXLn4KXA/WHjruci3NpI/KJY/g6LorIlqOjoiUYUZIEzp0TTS-FjveAEmACLcB/s1600/SGX-NF-EW-13-01-2017.png> SGX-NF -- Thanks & Regards, Asis Ghosh -- Kindly email stock reports at STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com For sharing knowledge -- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE. http://www.niftyviews.com/ Disclaimer :- "The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on their individual experience and perceptions and to share information with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members in investment decisions as equity investment is a risky venture.The administrator of www.Niftyviews.com just provide a platform for the authors to express their opinion and take no guarantee for the genuineness of the same."ANY member of this forum doesnt prepare or publish any research report; or ii. provide research report; or iii. make 'buy/sell/hold' recommendation; or iv. give price target; --- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Niftyviews.com" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to stockresearcher+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
[www.niftyviews.com:26001] Nifty May Open & Stay Lower Following Negative Global Cues Amid Concerns Of “Hard Brexit”; But Some Fall In USD & Oil And Hopes Of Better Q3 Earnings & Budget Sops May Help
*Market Mantra: 16/01/2017 (08:30)* *Watch 8380-8350 & 8455-8485 Zone In Nifty Fut (Jan), Which May Open Around 8395 Today* *Concerns of capital market & FPIS taxation issues (LTCGT & triple taxation-DDT), any adverse EC decision regarding budget day ahead of state polls and tepid progress of GST may drag the market.* As par early SGX indication, Nifty Fut (Jan) may open around 8395 (-25 points), slightly in negative following tepid global cues amid renewed concerns of “Hard Brexit” talks by UK PM tomorrow. UK is in great pressure from nearly all its stake holder to divulge a clear & specific plan for its “divorce” from the UK. Immigration & access to EZ common market may be the two biggest issues, which may pave the way for a “hard or soft” Brexit; but in any way as par May, “Brexit is a Brexit”. On Friday, US economic data was mixed; although headline inflation came good, core inflation was still tepid. Overall, trade protection rhetoric by Trump is not being seen as too harsh & serious by the market, as it was largely intended for Mexico so far and not against China, Russia or Canada (NAFTA). But, on close scrutiny, even if, such trade barrier rhetoric may be good for USD, it will be eventually negative for US stock market. For now, USD is being driven by US bond yields movement, ahead of Trump’s inaugural day on 20^th Jan. Domestically, apart from Q3 result, progress of GST, budget talks all eyes may be on the political front also as EC may announce its decision on budget day and also on the SP/Akhilesh & Cong equation. Although, as of now, BJP may be ahead in UP election, lack of any credible name for the CM post may also hamper its prospect in the coming days as Akhilesh Yadav is being seen as a “young & dynamic” CM candidate despite intense family drama. *Hints for actionable trading ideas:* *Technically, NF has to sustain over 8380-8350* area today; otherwise it may further fall towards 8290*-8250 & 8205*-8155 zone for the day (under bear case scenario).* *On the other side, sustaining above 8455-8485* area, NF may further rally towards 8515-8545* & 8585*-8685 zone for the day (under bullish case scenario).* *Similarly, BNF (LTP: 18970) has to sustain over 19150 area for any further rally towards 19250-19400* zone (under bullish case scenario).* *On the other side, sustaining below 19100-19000 zone, BNF may further fall towards 18700*-18600/18500 area for the day (under bear case scenario).* <https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-4cQXfXJi9yU/WHxDLL-d8tI/KKE/4ipuuX8sASgOkyeniFBRv21y5YOPYzURQCLcB/s1600/SGX-NF-16-01-2017.png> SGX-NF <https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-27HLoBwWTs4/WHxDM1ZrDaI/KKI/hgCtNKdkIBcU1pzw7y6AiQXOF61HCZUaQCLcB/s1600/BNF-13-01-2017.png> BNF * * -- Thanks & Regards, Asis Ghosh -- Kindly email stock reports at STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com For sharing knowledge -- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE. http://www.niftyviews.com/ Disclaimer :- "The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on their individual experience and perceptions and to share information with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members in investment decisions as equity investment is a risky venture.The administrator of www.Niftyviews.com just provide a platform for the authors to express their opinion and take no guarantee for the genuineness of the same."ANY member of this forum doesnt prepare or publish any research report; or ii. provide research report; or iii. make 'buy/sell/hold' recommendation; or iv. give price target; --- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Niftyviews.com" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to stockresearcher+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
[www.niftyviews.com:26008] Nifty Closed Marginally Higher (+0.21%) Amid Hopes Of Better Q3FY17 Earnings & Poll Prospect Of BJP In UP Despite Tepid Global Cues
*Market Wrap: 16/01/2017 (19:00)* *Looking at the chart, Nifty Fut (Jan @8435) has to sustain over 8485-8510 area for further rally towards 8545-8585 & 8645-8685 zone in the short term (under bullish case scenario).* *On the other side, sustaining below 8460-8425 zone, NF may further fall towards 8380/50-8290 & 8240-8190 area in the near term (under bear case scenario).* Nifty Fut (Jan) today closed around 8435 (+17 points) in a range bound market after making an opening session low 8385 and day high of 8444. Although, today US market is closed for a holiday, Asian & European cues were tepid amid talks of “Hard Brexit” in UK; but Indian market looked stable supported by better Q3 earnings expectation, better poll prospect of BJP in UP following no let up in feud with the warring Yadav family, where father Mulayam is ready to fight his son Akhilesh with “Cycle & Motor Cycle”. Domestic market today was supported by metals (buzz of MIP/ASD; better demand), reality (affordable housing), banking (talk of PSBS recapitalization approval by the Govt for Rs.25000 cr, budget & rate cut hopes) and Tata group of stocks (appointment of Chandra may bring down credit costs and positive for the overall stability for the group; depreciation of GBP is positive for Tata Motors/JLR and better UK monthly sales figure). But the market was dragged by IT (tepid results/guidance/H1B visa issues), Oil & Gas, Pharma (concern for US market) & FMCG. Hike in petrol & diesel prices also supported the oil marketing companies (BPCL/IOC). But the market tone was also cautious ahead of Trump’s inauguration later this week and real progress of GST. Although, after today’s GST meet it seems that the contentious issue of Dual Control mechanism may have resolved, Govt/states & other stake holders are not in a position to implement it from April’17 and now the expectation will shift towards July-Sep’17. But still, it’s very doubtful for a Sep’17 roll out of GST amid intense political & economical disruptions after demonetization and series of state elections in 2017-18. Also, the Indian economy may not be prepared yet for two successive disruptions in such a short time (demonetization & GST) and from the overall structure of the GST, it may be against the theme of “ease of doing business in India”, with so much rules & regulations and supervisory hurdles. Indian market sentiment today was also supported by a Moody’s report that Govt may be able to adhere the target of 3.5% fiscal deficit of GDP in FY-17, but going forward, it may be tough to achieve the 3% fiscal deficit target due to incremental Govt capex (infra spending). Also, another report by GS that H2FY18 may be better for the EM & India on the back of incremental growth & earning, may have supported the market today, despite perception of a stronger USD. After market hours, RIL result flashed out and apparently it seems that GRM & EBITDA came below street estimates and thus flat core earnings, incremental capex for R-JIO and increasing debt may weigh on the stock in the coming days. Today WPI came at 3.39% for Dec’16 against estimate of 3.50% (prior: 3.15% for Nov). Although the headline number was no big surprise, the increment in core WPI may be also an indication of broken supply chain as a result of demonetization (cost of RM may increase). Overall, as of now BJP may be ahead in UP polls; but reports that Akhilesh group may get the original poll symbol (cycle) and may also announce an official alliance with Cong, it’s going to be a close fight in UP this time. Reports that IMF has cut the Indian GDP estimate for FY-17 from 7.6% to 6.6% due to demonetization may also weigh on the domestic market sentiment tomorrow along with tepid RIL results and delay in GST, despite the “good news” of increased withdrawal limit from ATM. <https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-F9FcAOh29KU/WHzYsN8-b2I/KKk/DahmVb02rNM7BwobOZuhaqafM46suBU4ACLcB/s1600/SGX-NF-PATTERN-16-01-2017.png> SGX-NF -- Thanks & Regards, Asis Ghosh -- Kindly email stock reports at STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com For sharing knowledge -- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE. http://www.niftyviews.com/ Disclaimer :- "The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on their individual experience and perceptions and to share information with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members in investment decisions as equity investment is a risky venture.The administrator of www.Niftyviews.com just provide a platform for the authors to express their opinion and take no guarantee for the genuineness of the same."ANY member of this forum doesnt prepare or publish any research report; or ii. provide research report; or iii. make 'buy/sell/hold' recommendation; or iv. give price target; --- You received this message be
[www.niftyviews.com:26009] Nifty May Open Flat Amid Tepid Global Cues Ahead Of UK PM’s Much Awaited “Hard Brexit” Speech (?); 8485-8510 Zone In Nifty May Be A Big Hurdle In The Days Ahead
*Market Mantra: 17/01/2017 (08:30)* *Watch 8460-8425 & 8485-8510 Zone In Nifty Fut (Jan), Which May Open Around 8440 Today* *For RIL, 1105-1115 zone may be a big hurdle and sustain below 1070 area, it may fall towards 1040-1015 & 975-925 zone in the near term. * *On the other side, sustaining above 1115-1130 area, RIL may rally towards 1160-1280 zone in the near to midterm.* *Q3FY17 result flashed yesterday may be tepid and GRM also below expected; the stock may correct to some extent.* As par early SGX indication, Nifty Fut (Jan) may open around 8440 today, almost flat following tepid global cues ahead of UK PM’s much awaited “Hard Brexit” talk later in the day. Although, market is bracing for a hard Brexit talk from May, the speech is scheduled for a group of foreign dignitaries and considering some British Parliamentary procedure eventually, May can’t divulge any more information, which is not known; i.e. this event may be a sheer hype also. Market is also concerned about Trump’s rhetoric of trade protections and perception of “America First” ahead of his inaugural day and USD/US bond yields are under mild selling pressure. Back to home, market sentiment may be little jittery after tepid RIL result/GRM and increasing debts & R-JIO capex without any revenue so far. Also, gloomy GDP forecast by IMF yesterday for India & delay in GST may affect the sentiment by some extent. *Hints for actionable trading ideas:* *Technically, NF has to sustain over 8485-8510 area for further rally towards 8545*-8585 & 8645*-8685 zone for the day (under bullish case scenario).* *On the other side, sustaining below 8460-8425 zone, NF may further fall towards 8380-8320* & 8275*-8225 area for the day (under bear case scenario).* *Similarly, BNF (LTP: 19145) need to sustain above 19250 zone for further rally towards 19350-19450* area for the day (under bullish case scenario).* *On the other side, sustaining below 19200 area, BNF may further fall towards 19100*-19000/18800* zone for the day (under bear case scenario).* <https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-FOATKY8IAFs/WH2UMVBc2WI/KLI/bDuuMy8bjA4QJQggDdtEH6GWOU5XOq-IwCLcB/s1600/SGX-NF-17-01-2017.png> SGX-NF <https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-Q4Ng6YJN3Mc/WH2UOkC1s5I/KLM/LIPfmBOSIqc5NZalvb0XBA14zSYCrZMewCLcB/s1600/BNF-PATTERN-16-01-2017.png> BNF <https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-5zeZs6D7f1k/WH2UQ6eCoaI/KLQ/CYS14qqsow0PBIfxPpx15xd0oU7qyqhygCLcB/s1600/RIL-PATTERN-16-01-2017.png> RIL * * -- Thanks & Regards, Asis Ghosh -- Kindly email stock reports at STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com For sharing knowledge -- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE. http://www.niftyviews.com/ Disclaimer :- "The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on their individual experience and perceptions and to share information with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members in investment decisions as equity investment is a risky venture.The administrator of www.Niftyviews.com just provide a platform for the authors to express their opinion and take no guarantee for the genuineness of the same."ANY member of this forum doesnt prepare or publish any research report; or ii. provide research report; or iii. make 'buy/sell/hold' recommendation; or iv. give price target; --- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Niftyviews.com" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to stockresearcher+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
[www.niftyviews.com:26015] Nifty Failed To Hold Opening Gain & Closed Lower Amid Tepid Global Cues Following Concerns Of “Hard Brexit” Talks & Trump’s Comments About USD Strength (A Blow To “Trumpflat
as of now and we have yet to see the full impact of the demonetization on the revenue front. Today’s tepid Q3FY17 numbers from Havells & contraction in the OPM may be an early indication about adverse effect of the demonetization on the Indian economy. Havells, being a direct consumer facing company, may be a reflection of Indian consumption story. Today, Indian market was also dragged by RIL to some extent after its Q3FY17 numbers failed to beat the market estimates in a significant way and also reported a below consensus GRM. The stock may be under pressure after the recent rally amid significant capex & debt for its telecom arm (R-JIO), which is yet to start any revenue so far. An ever extending “free” business model may be great for the consumers, but not for the investors, despite FCF from its oil & gas business. <https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-WTvRDmm_Pso/WH4g2dcwsYI/KLg/NQ0Nq5f7Hdc0RyVPjURZQBAomG9Zv19swCLcB/s1600/SGX-NF-FIBB-17-01-2017.png> SGX-NF -- Thanks & Regards, Asis Ghosh -- Kindly email stock reports at STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com For sharing knowledge -- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE. http://www.niftyviews.com/ Disclaimer :- "The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on their individual experience and perceptions and to share information with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members in investment decisions as equity investment is a risky venture.The administrator of www.Niftyviews.com just provide a platform for the authors to express their opinion and take no guarantee for the genuineness of the same."ANY member of this forum doesnt prepare or publish any research report; or ii. provide research report; or iii. make 'buy/sell/hold' recommendation; or iv. give price target; --- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Niftyviews.com" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to stockresearcher+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
[www.niftyviews.com:26017] Nifty May Open In Slight Positive Amid Mixed Global/Asian Cues After “Hard Brexit” Stance By UK (Subjected To Parliament Approval) & Uncertainty About Trump’s Policy; Withho
*Market Mantra: 18/01/2017 (08:30)* *Watch 8425-8380 & 8465/8485-8510 Zone In Nifty Fut (Jan), Which May Open Around 8415 Today* *Some fall in USD may be good for EM (s) including Indian market for the time being; but Nifty need to stay above 8485-8510 for any further rally from here; otherwise may fall in the coming days.* As par early SGX indication, Nifty Fut (Jan) may open around 8415 (+12 points), almost flat after mixed Global/Asian cues following confirmation of “Hard Brexit” stance by UK PM & renewed concern about “Trumponomics” just ahead of the inaugural day. Japan is trading in negative as a result of some strength in Yen; but China is in positive territory after some recovery in Yuan & its home prices. Although, UK’s stance of “Hard Brexit” was almost discounted even before the speech, the point that it will go through the Parliament approval procedure for the final deal with EU (not the invocation of the Article-50) has somewhat accelerated the huge short covering in GBPUSD along with the perception that by May’s official statement about modalities of the Brexit procedure, a great deal of uncertainty has removed. Although, basically the ball is now with the EU authorities for subsequent trade agreements with the UK, market will also watch keenly the verdict of the UK SC on the need for Parliament approval for the invocation of the Article-50 issue and there are still lots of uncertainty & concerns about UK’s future. Although, fall in USD after Trump’s comments and UK’s confirmation about Hard Brexit stance may be positive for EM & Indian market, it may be a temporary relief before Trump taking charge of the office on 20^th Jan. All will now depend upon his actual plan of “Trumponomics” and its implementation on the ground. Back to home, Indian market sentiment may get some support after the controversial double/triple taxation issues for the FPIS is put on hold by the Govt; although it’s is expected line, the consistent flip-flops by the tax authority and lack of a predictable & fair tax regime may continue haunt the “angel investors” (FPIS). *Hints for actionable trading ideas:* *Technically, NF needs to stay above 8485-8510 zone for any further rally towards 8545*-8585 & 8645-8685* area for the day (under bullish case scenario).* *On the other side, sustaining below 8460-8425 area, NF may further fall towards 8380*-8325 & 8285*-8215 zone for the day (under bear case scenario).* *Similarly, BNF (LTP: 19077) need to stay above 19275 zone for further rally towards 19350*-19550 area for the day (under bullish case scenario).* *On the other side, sustaining below 19200 area, BNF may further fall towards 19100*-18900/18800 zone for the day (under bear case scenario).* <https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-Gk922emRUb4/WH7mw_14hNI/KL8/q3qOEHWPms0pnUp8soyyt6-Dnl40uKaTwCLcB/s1600/SGX-NF-18-01-2017.png> SGX-NF <https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-AMkW1dqMv-g/WH7m9g20P4I/KMA/nZFuafa6yFQr1y44L6sHxqFZeAUKfCb0QCLcB/s1600/BNF-17-01-2017.png> BNF -- Thanks & Regards, Asis Ghosh -- Kindly email stock reports at STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com For sharing knowledge -- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE. http://www.niftyviews.com/ Disclaimer :- "The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on their individual experience and perceptions and to share information with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members in investment decisions as equity investment is a risky venture.The administrator of www.Niftyviews.com just provide a platform for the authors to express their opinion and take no guarantee for the genuineness of the same."ANY member of this forum doesnt prepare or publish any research report; or ii. provide research report; or iii. make 'buy/sell/hold' recommendation; or iv. give price target; --- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Niftyviews.com" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to stockresearcher+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
[www.niftyviews.com:26023] Nifty Closed In A Cautious Positive Tone (+0.26%) On The Back Of “Temporary” Relief For The FPIS Taxation Issues Ahead Of Deluge Of US Economic Data & Domestic Earnings & “T
cally sensitive country like India, where there is also severe lack of social security for various legacy issues, it may be very tough for a drastic reduction in the corresponding small savings interest rates. If banks will offer its deposit rates well below the small savings rates, deposit will flow out of the banks. Thus, for further transmission of RBI repo rate cuts by the banks, small savings rate in India need to be slashed first; otherwise multiple rate cuts by the RBI may be of no use for the overall economy/industry (borrowers). Considering all these, RBI may cut by 0.25% in Feb and may also cut another 0.25% in H2FY17, depending upon the actual Fed stance, “Trumponomics”, (USDINR equation), actual trajectory of Indian GDP & CPI after demonetization in the coming months, effect of 7CPC & GST (if implemented) on the inflation etc. Thus rate cut cycle by the RBI may end at FY-18, unless Govt takes appropriate steps to reduce the corresponding small savings rate in India in the coming months. Having said that, it may be also not easy for any Govt to slash savings rate drastically, especially during several state elections in 2017-18 and also for the upcoming 2019 general election, preparation for which may have already started. <https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-aiHjd8HNvCw/WH99VRWZfOI/KMY/4JLdfuJbNnwMQLQiMQC2iRa8uruS8nIuQCLcB/s1600/SGX-NF-PATTERN-18-01-2017.png> SGX-NF -- Thanks & Regards, Asis Ghosh -- Kindly email stock reports at STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com For sharing knowledge -- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE. http://www.niftyviews.com/ Disclaimer :- "The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on their individual experience and perceptions and to share information with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members in investment decisions as equity investment is a risky venture.The administrator of www.Niftyviews.com just provide a platform for the authors to express their opinion and take no guarantee for the genuineness of the same."ANY member of this forum doesnt prepare or publish any research report; or ii. provide research report; or iii. make 'buy/sell/hold' recommendation; or iv. give price target; --- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Niftyviews.com" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to stockresearcher+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
[www.niftyviews.com:26024] Nifty May Open Almost Flat Amid Mixed Global Cues Following Some Strength In USD Supported By Upbeat US Economic Data, Beige Book & “Confident” Yellen About Strength Of US E
*Market Mantra: 18901/2017 (08:30)* *Watch 8415-8375 & 8485-8510 Zone In Nifty Fut (Jan), Which May Open Around 8425 Today* *Globally, all eyes may be on the ECB today for any indication of tapering and domestically market may keenly watch Q3FY17 results of Axis & Yes Bank after “good show” by Indusind & South Bank despite concerns of demonetization.* *Market may also watch any EC action or final decision about budget presentation, although as par some reports, 2^nd Feb budget day is “almost” a done deal.* *Yesterday’s flip flops/defensive stance of the RBI at PAC regarding demonetization may be an indication of lack of confidence on the sudden & unprecedented act of “notebandi” and reports of new 1000/- note either by 26^th Jan or after the budget session and subsequent withdrawal of 2000/- notes may add more confusion/disruption for the ongoing effort of the remonetization.* *As par some reports, despite FPIS taxation circular is put on hold, there are still some real concerns, which need to be addressed soon.* As par early SGX indication, Nifty Fut (Jan) may open around 8425 (-5 points), almost flat following tepid/mixed global/Asian cues. Overnight US market fall slightly on concern of Trump’s policy related uncertainty as the market may have rallied too much ahead of the harsh reality. But, yesterday’s upbeat US economic data (CPI, IIP) and beige book, underlying the strength of the US job market despite moderate wage pressure along with Yellen’s confidence about US economy and “gradual rate hikes” till 2019 has helped the USD/US bond yields. Oil fall to some extent after surprise addition of API US inventories, despite OPEC confirmation about the ongoing production cut. But, at the same time, Saudi Arabia has already indicated that this agreement may be effective only for the next 6 months. So, for Crude oil, $55 may be an intermediate top for the time being, unless we see some real deceleration in the supply glut or some surprised incremental demands. *Hints for actionable trading ideas:* *Technically, NF needs to sustain above 8485-8510 zone for further rally towards 8545-8585* & 8645*-8685 area for the day (under bullish case scenario).* *On the other side, sustaining below 8460-8415 area, NF may fall towards 8375*-8325 & 8275*-8235 zone for the day (under bear case scenario).* *Similarly, BNF (LTP: 19198) need to sustain over 19350 area for further rally towards 19500*-19850 zone for the day (under bullish case scenario).* *On the flip side, sustaining below 19300-19200 area, BNF may further fall towards 19100*-19000/18800 zone for the day (under bear case scenario).* <https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-IrpgVwm6tNY/WIA34Vkj5PI/KM0/wFmt01j-z_4XRO7muXiPIreoptnQrhEjwCLcB/s1600/SGX-NF-19-01-2017.png> SGX-NF <https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-OGStt_viamU/WIA36zrNOSI/KM4/WKgcjt3ffboCy5HpWTwkpGUMtPSzKitrgCLcB/s1600/BNF-18-01-2017.png> BNF -- Thanks & Regards, Asis Ghosh -- Kindly email stock reports at STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com For sharing knowledge -- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE. http://www.niftyviews.com/ Disclaimer :- "The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on their individual experience and perceptions and to share information with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members in investment decisions as equity investment is a risky venture.The administrator of www.Niftyviews.com just provide a platform for the authors to express their opinion and take no guarantee for the genuineness of the same."ANY member of this forum doesnt prepare or publish any research report; or ii. provide research report; or iii. make 'buy/sell/hold' recommendation; or iv. give price target; --- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Niftyviews.com" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to stockresearcher+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
[www.niftyviews.com:26030] Nifty Closed Almost Flat (+0.11%) After A Dull Day Of Trading As Both “Bulls & Bears” Continue To Be In The Sideline Ahead Of ECB & Trump Day And Indian Budget & More Q3 Ear
ion in the coming days. After confirmation of “Hard Brexit” stance (subjected to Parliament approval of the EU deal & not the invocation of the Article-50 itself), all eyes will be on 24^th Jan, when UK SC is expected to deliver its judgment regarding approval from the Parliament for invocation of the Article-50. After the recent change of stance of the UK Govt to take the Parliament approval for the final EU deal, market is expecting that SC will give favourable verdict in favour of the Govt stance on Brexit. Any “real Brexit” may cause significant job losses for the UK as various big investment banks are already considering shift of base from London to elsewhere (Paris/Berlin). It may also affect the operations of some of the big Indian IT companies (TCS/Infy/Tech-M etc). Back to home, domestic market may be waiting for the “dream budget” and more earning & guidance clues before jumping on the board. After market hours today, Axis bank has flashed its Q3FY17 numbers which may be a “horror show” and can make the scrip fall tomorrow. Numbers from Yes bank may be also flat (QOQ) and largely in line with market estimates; although there is slight incremental pressure on the NPA front. Rather than Q3, where various loopholes were available there to launder the old demonetized notes to generate “business”, Q4 numbers may be more vital to gauze the actual effect on the economy after demonetization. Today PSBS has rallied by some extent after favourable verdict from the DRT about recovery proceedings in the infamous KFA case. But, on a closer scrutiny, it may be very doubtful as almost all the domestic assets (direct or indirect) are already attached and banks are not finding suitable bidders/buyers for those also. Apart from the exorbitant rates, nobody is also interested to touch disputed property/assets. Thus, going forward, stressed assets resolutions by the banks may be also a headwind as such supply of assets is much more than the actual demand and overall market is also depressed, especially after demonetization. All eyes may be also on the EC & Govt stance regarding any final decision about budget day. Any adverse decision from the EC may cause extreme volatility in the market. <https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-Hd0xd8Ltu8g/WIDKl_8xFlI/KNM/ivAMLKlOE70Z0ZRkCjqbn4g_Jlk5DXX8QCLcB/s1600/SGX-NF-PATTERN-19-01-2017.png> SGX-NF <https://2.bp.blogspot.com/--m27GJye9aY/WIDKyewKpAI/KNQ/LjJZimpGcm40wKdswqG3t4n36PfZ_Z56wCLcB/s1600/Trump-US-top%2B10%2Binfra%2Bprojects.jpg> Trump's Top Infra Projects (Probable) -- Thanks & Regards, Asis Ghosh -- Kindly email stock reports at STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com For sharing knowledge -- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE. http://www.niftyviews.com/ Disclaimer :- "The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on their individual experience and perceptions and to share information with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members in investment decisions as equity investment is a risky venture.The administrator of www.Niftyviews.com just provide a platform for the authors to express their opinion and take no guarantee for the genuineness of the same."ANY member of this forum doesnt prepare or publish any research report; or ii. provide research report; or iii. make 'buy/sell/hold' recommendation; or iv. give price target; --- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Niftyviews.com" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to stockresearcher+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
[www.niftyviews.com:26031] Nifty May Open In Slight Negative Despite Positive Asian Cues Supported By Better Than Expected China GDP & Some Fall In USD As Yellen Sounds Like Dovish Yesterday Ahead Of
*Market Mantra: 20/01/2017 (08:30)* *Watch 8435-8370 & 8485-8510 Zone In Nifty Fut (Jan), Which May Open Around 8421 Today* *Market may also watch any EC action or final decision about budget presentation today, although as par some reports, 2^nd Feb budget day is “almost” a done deal.* As par early SGX indication, Nifty Fut (Jan) may open around 8421 (-17 points), almost flat despite positive Asian Cues supported by better than expected China GDP data, which flashed at 6.8% against estimate of 6.7% (prior: 6.7%). China retail sales data is also slightly better than expected, but IIP flashed a tad lower. China is supporting the morning Asian market “risk on” sentiment today by some extent. USD fall across the G-10 universe despite better than expected US economic data (housing starts, jobless claims, PHY Fed index etc), published yesterday. Apart from trading related long unwinding factor just before Trump taking charge of the Oval office, there are also some concerns about probable inaugural rhetoric of Trump & Co to “mark” China as a “currency manipulator” and other trade protection related measures. Although, talking China about its so called currency manipulation is nothing new, this time China being already under severe stress to defend its Yuan, may resort to more US TSY selling in order to “retaliate” Trump’s accusations, which may cause significant volatility in the FX world. Apart from Trump factor, yesterday’s tone of Yellen was surprisingly “dovish” and thus despite Draghi’s pledge of keeping a dovish monetary policy with no indication of any tapering, USD fall to some extent. Basically, Fed may try to downplay the strength of US economy now, as USD has gained significant strength in the last few months, which may be above its comfort zone for the overall interest of the US economy. On the other side, ECB/BOJ/BOE are now more in comfort zone as their currencies has depreciated significantly in the last few months, which has also helped their macro economy to a great extent. Now it’s time for go reverse (under the unofficial central bank coordinated rotational monetary policy in order to help each other time to time??). Back to home, all eyes may be on the EC today for any final decision of the budget day and more Q3 earnings after “Horror Result” from Axis Bank today. *Hints for actionable trading idea:* *Technically, NF need to sustain above 8485-8510 zone for any further rally towards 8545*-8585 & 8645*-8685 zone for the day (under bullish case scenario).* *On the flip side, sustaining below 8460-8435 area, NF may further fall towards 8370*-8305 & 8235*-8175 zone for the day (under bear case scenario).* *Similarly, BNF (LTP: 19143) need to sustain over 19300 area for any further rally towards 19450-19550 zone for the day (under bullish case scenario).* *On the flip side, sustaining below 19250 zone, BNF may further fall towards 19100-18950* & 18800*-18600 area for the day (under bear case scenario).* <https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-KBjdvVk-HV8/WIGJ8lJZADI/KN0/GXo6ZoFrjEwJKRfmi1Q2oEM5VulTGjVsgCLcB/s1600/SGX-NF-20-01-2017.png> SGX-NF <https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-O0xNgY0wn2o/WIGJ-_pp-wI/KN4/iIOrE1J9iQEO_2uoWDheE5ju8QIe7RKeACLcB/s1600/BNF-PATTERN-19-01-2017.png> BNF** -- Thanks & Regards, Asis Ghosh -- Kindly email stock reports at STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com For sharing knowledge -- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE. http://www.niftyviews.com/ Disclaimer :- "The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on their individual experience and perceptions and to share information with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members in investment decisions as equity investment is a risky venture.The administrator of www.Niftyviews.com just provide a platform for the authors to express their opinion and take no guarantee for the genuineness of the same."ANY member of this forum doesnt prepare or publish any research report; or ii. provide research report; or iii. make 'buy/sell/hold' recommendation; or iv. give price target; --- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Niftyviews.com" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to stockresearcher+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
[www.niftyviews.com:26038] Nifty Dropped By 80 Points Amid Concern Of Trump’s Policy & Trade Protection And Poor Earnings By Axis Bank & Some Reports About Modified Version Of FPI Taxation (India Fund
(modalities of fiscal/infra spending, tax cuts, deregulation, trade protection & China rhetoric etc). If the thrust is more on the trade protection than specific fiscal spending theme, USD as well as US stock market may be sold off and “Trump Trade” may end abruptly. For EM, there may be no “welcome gift” from Trump & Co in the days ahead apart from solaces of some fall in USD/US bond yields; but too much rhetoric on the trade protection & “biggest” US job creator theme may also hurt the EM including Indian economy & the market. On the other hand, if Trump put maximum stress on “Making America Great Again” by divulging some specifics about his fiscal spending, USD/US bond yields may fly to the sky and in that scenario, EM as well as Indian market may come under renewed pressure; it may be a double whammy for the EM under “Trumpism” in the days ahead. <https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-0-AiLQBtDLM/WIIe2_ibYRI/KOM/sqi3lAEFUhk8A0OiZUT29eN3MlQLZyTzQCLcB/s1600/SGX-NF-PATTERN-20-01-2017.png> SGX-NF -- Thanks & Regards, Asis Ghosh -- Kindly email stock reports at STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com For sharing knowledge -- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE. http://www.niftyviews.com/ Disclaimer :- "The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on their individual experience and perceptions and to share information with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members in investment decisions as equity investment is a risky venture.The administrator of www.Niftyviews.com just provide a platform for the authors to express their opinion and take no guarantee for the genuineness of the same."ANY member of this forum doesnt prepare or publish any research report; or ii. provide research report; or iii. make 'buy/sell/hold' recommendation; or iv. give price target; --- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Niftyviews.com" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to stockresearcher+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
[www.niftyviews.com:26041] Nifty May Open Almost Flat Amid Mixed Global Cues; Some Fall In USD After Trump’s Inaugural Speech May Help Domestic Market; But Perception Of “America First” & Trade Protec
*Market Mantra: 23/01/2017 (08:30)* *Watch 8385-8325 & 8415-8485 Zone In Nifty Fut (Jan), Which May Open Around 8360 Today* *Market may also watch any EC & SC action or final decision about budget presentation today, although as par some reports, 2^nd Feb budget day is “almost” a done deal.* *Prediction by Skymet for a resurface of El-Nino in India this year may also drag the sentiment.* As par early SGX indication, Nifty Fut (Jan) may open around 8360 (-3 points), almost flat after mixed Global/Asian cues. After Trump’s inaugural speech on Friday, USD has fall to some extent as Trump did not outline anything specific about his fiscal spending plan. Although there was a clear rhetoric of trade protection & “America First” with another election rhetoric that “We will build America great again”, Trump made no specific allegation of China as a “currency manipulator”. Trump & Co is expected to take a series of executive decisions today after making the 1^st executive decision about overhauling “Obamacare” on his first day. USD is getting hammered to some extent and that is helping China market, but Japan is down as Yen is getting stronger. Fall in USD and “America First” notion may affect the Indian IT stocks today. Also, Pharma pricing issues & scrap of Obamacare may affect the Pharma scrips. Domestically, all eyes may be on the ongoing Q3FY17 numbers to have more idea about actual impact of the demonetization on the economy. Although, earnings are mixed so far, it’s too early and rather than Q3, when various loop holes were available to use the demonetized cash, Q4 may be a better indicator about this demonetization narrative in the short term. *Hints for actionable trading ideas:* *Technically, NF has to sustain over 8385 zone today; otherwise it may further fall towards 8325*-8275 & 8175*-8040 area for the day (under bear case scenario).* *On the other side, sustaining above 8415 zone, NF may rally towards 8450/8585*-8515 & 8545*-8585 area for the day (under bullish case scenario).* *Similarly, BNF (LTP: 18858) need to stay above 18750 zone; otherwise it may fall towards 18650-18590* & 18400*-18250 area for the day (under bear case scenario).* *On the other side, for any strength BNF need to stay above 19000 area for further up move towards 19175*-19250 & 19350*-19450 zone for the day (under bullish case scenario).* <https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-hwRib8viQb4/WIV9F_T6FYI/KPE/ChAP15DHsoMN_gcf7KDEyV7vqlHb4QQagCLcB/s1600/NF-20-01-2017.png> NF <https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-1Lv_xH2E4LA/WIV9HYeKcJI/KPI/9MyOCBueGb0N7VJJJQEpJx--GNAm7cSsgCLcB/s1600/BNF-20-01-2017.png> BNF -- Thanks & Regards, Asis Ghosh -- Kindly email stock reports at STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com For sharing knowledge -- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE. http://www.niftyviews.com/ Disclaimer :- "The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on their individual experience and perceptions and to share information with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members in investment decisions as equity investment is a risky venture.The administrator of www.Niftyviews.com just provide a platform for the authors to express their opinion and take no guarantee for the genuineness of the same."ANY member of this forum doesnt prepare or publish any research report; or ii. provide research report; or iii. make 'buy/sell/hold' recommendation; or iv. give price target; --- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Niftyviews.com" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to stockresearcher+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
