Re: [Biofuel] threat to U.S. dollar
Joe Street asks, Is there anything we at home can do to help speed this process? :) I suggest: Implore your Federal representatives to continue raising the debt ceiling, to continue supporting the war in Iraq and Afghanistan, to start another war in Iran, etc etc. Or better, don't waste your time. Or better still, stop killing people so casually and go home, like everybody's telling you to. If you really want to go bombing the hell out of Iran just to fiddle with the Federal Reserve or something you might at least ask them first, it's only polite, it's their collateral after all. Instead, I ask you, Joe, and the List, how do you believe the average Joe should prepare for the inevitable demise of the US dollar??? I don't think it's inevitable. Or at least I don't think an economic collapse is inevitable. Or not because of the dollar anyway. Energy is a more threatening issue, IMHO. I'm not trying to be facetious. I'm asking a real question, seeking a real answer. Might not like the answer, but I'd like to hear. Also, Keith, how will Japan be affected? Japan is one of the largest holders of US Debt. Mike DuPree Well, you see, there's this economic crisis here that the Japanese have been struggling to survive in recent years. I guess it will grow even more severe. It's a strange kind of economic crisis, at first glance. For one thing it's not characterised by any shortage of money at any level, if you can picture that. Actually it seems to be impossible to picture it, at least in newspaper articles about the severity of the crisis, which usually show photographs of the stock exchange. No images of suffering or blighted inner cities or rust belts of dead factories rotting away. It's not that they hide it, it's just that there aren't any such things here. When interviewed, ordinary people say they're deeply worried that their retirement income might not be as much as they'd thought. It still won't leave them poor though. There is evidence of the crisis at street level, if you know where to look. In the financial district in Tokyo there are coffee shops that are filled each day with displaced sararimen who've been retrenched. They get up in the morning, grab their suit and attache case and rush off to work as usual even though they don't have a job to go to anymore, because if the truth came out in the neighbourhood the sheer loss of social status would destroy the wife. They're not suffering though except existentially, they get really good pay-offs. Another street-level indicator is how empty the shops are. There's an instant cure available for the sheer burden of hopelessness and depression that comes with trying to live through an economic crisis such as this one. You go shopping. It helps take your mind off things. When it's really serious the shops are full. I guess they'll just go shopping Mike. Sorry... I'm not really joking though. Sweden also has this kind of economic crisis sometimes, that's the envy of the world. They just can't see how rich they are. I laugh at Swedes about it, and they say yes they know, but THIS time it's real. Right. Maybe Switzerland has them too. I'm not sure what Japan's economic policy is. Maybe they haven't got one, it's kind of hard to find an actual policy on anything in Japan. It doesn't seem to be how they do things here. Henry Ford invented the Just In Time inventory strategy of stock keeping, but it was Toyota who put it on the map. It's very Japanese! Maybe it describes Japanese economics quite well too, JIT economics. It might look like they haven't seen something creeping up on them but I wouldn't bank on it. Japan has the world's fifth largest military budget but the military is just about invisible here, and they pay for it without arms exports. I don't think anyone else can manage that, or not easily. Japan is strangely invisible in many ways, but it's one of the three great economic powers in the world, its technological base is the equal of any, and whatever the economic future holds Japan is sure to play a major role in it. They're capable of things the West wouldn't imagine, they have different depths of experience to draw on, they keep proving it. They have a great deal to contribute. Best Keith - Original Message - From: Joe Street mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED][EMAIL PROTECTED] To: mailto:biofuel@sustainablelists.orgbiofuel@sustainablelists.org Sent: Tuesday, May 30, 2006 8:29 AM Subject: [SPAMPROB:51%] Re: [Biofuel] threat to U.S. dollar Is there anything we at home can do to help speed this process? :) Joe AltEnergyNetwork wrote: http://www.vheadline.com/readnews.asp?id=58951http://www.vheadline.c om/readnews.asp?id=58951 Threat against the US$ comes from countries such as Iran and Venezuela... Former Nordland University (Norway) associate professor, Dr. Abbas Bakhtiar writes: On Wednesday, May 17, the Dow Jones plunged 214 points
Re: [Biofuel] threat to U.S. dollar
Hi Robert, Hakan You are correct, but there is a belief over here that engaging in war is GOOD for the economy, and further, that we're strong enough to sustain ongoing warfare. There's the kind of economics that can't distinguish between swords and ploughshares, and the kind that can. The first is a thing of the past with a hangover, the second is of the future, and the present. Eco-economics has been on the table since Maggie Thatcher put it there by mistake in 1988. It's not going to go away, it's been gaining ground steadily. It's not just we Americans who need to do this--though we are certainly among the most gluttonous energy users on the planet--but the entire economic structure upon which society has been built needs reconsideration. It's a casino, and a casino mentality. The only bit of reality in a casino is the fact that the game's loaded in favour of the house, but I don't think the guys who own Las Vegas think you could run the world that way. Or maybe they do, if it's the Mafia that owns Las Vegas, considering the grey areas you always find everywhere between government, big business and organised crime. The other bit of reality is that it's sucking up the whole world like a vacuum cleaner and vanishing it. Time for real economics. The work of the economist Nicholas Georgescu-Roegen is real economics: http://cepa.newschool.edu/het/profiles/georgescu.htm Nicholas Georgescu-Roegen, 1906-1994 There's some of his work here, in the archives: http://www.mail-archive.com/biofuel@sustainablelists.org/msg30418.html [biofuel] Energy and Economic Myths Selections from Energy and Economic Myths by Nicholas Georgescu-Roegen His inheritors are the ecological economists, Herman Daly, Robert Costanza, Michael T. Klare, Joshua Farley and many others. More: http://www.mail-archive.com/biofuel@sustainablelists.org/msg34131.html [biofuel] From Here to Economy http://www.mail-archive.com/biofuel@sustainablelists.org/msg30417.html [biofuel] How Much Is Nature Worth? For You, $33 Trillion http://www.mail-archive.com/biofuel@sustainablelists.org/msg34130.html [biofuel] At What Cost? - Costanza http://www.mail-archive.com/biofuel@sustainablelists.org/msg34129.html [biofuel] The Wealth of Nature http://www.mail-archive.com/biofuel@sustainablelists.org/msg34207.html Re: [biofuel] The Wealth of Nature That's a good read. It has to go that way, and it has been doing so, though it's not centre-screen. It's no more centre-screen that the growth of backyard biodiesel brewing round the world in the last six years, spreading like a weed and suitably out of control for several years now, IMHO. It's a fair comparison because of what you say about energy. If we're going to have an economic collapse I think it might be an energy collapse more than a currency collapse. But I don't think there'll be an economic collapse. If you can't get yourself in shape for localised energy production and supply then you're headed for an economic collapse, but that's your problem, not everyone else's. Not any more, we're leaving that behind. No room for dinosaurs. Even the US army thinks that way these days - they think they'll have to use localised biofuel and bioenergy sources to fight their wars to protect the fossil-fuel supplies. A dinosaur trying on some sheep's clothing. The eco-economic view applies to a lot of areas now. Jules Pretty takes a conservative look at industrialised agriculture in terms of real cost accounting and it turns out to be costing more than it's worth. There's no way of putting it in the black, we'll just have to dump most of it. Pretty also charts a worldwide growth of sustainable farming, small-scale and local. Food miles and fuel miles aren't just talk, the days are numbered for that kind of trade system, with carbon costs hot on its heels, real carbon costs, not the casino stuff they're playing with now. Actually eco-economics does reach centre-screen. It highlights the externalisations of business-as-usual instead of hiding them. A lot of people started to see things that way after Hurricane Katrina. The military's hardly an answer. It can do damage but it can't *win* anything, it's not a sword at all, just a shovel to dig your own grave with. And other people's too. It's hard for Americans to see it that way, it's all been glorified from birth. Glorified to death. Best Keith Hakan Falk wrote: Robert, Now we are starting to get somewhere and thank you for posting a good and fuller description of the problem. You're welcome! There are many problems with the US economy, one is the belief that they could export services to balance the lack of production. The markets for US services have failed to materialize. As pointed out, the cost of engaging in war, only worsen the situation. You are correct, but there is a belief over here that engaging in war is GOOD for the economy, and further, that we're strong enough to
Re: [Biofuel] threat to U.S. dollar
Hi Mike; Well there is considerable uncertainty and debate about what form the restructuring will take but little argument that it is going to happen sooner or later. The best strategy is therefore also unknown but I think one can still plan for some general conditions which may be present in any scenario. In times of hyper inflation things are valued more in terms of what they are and the potentialities that they represent in terms of basic needs than they are in our society in present times. Therefore anyone who can provide for themselves in areas of basic needs may be considered rich in some regards. The ability to provide for your own food requirements can be very important. The ability to obtain and render water safe for consumption ranks right up there if you are independant with it. The ability to produce some energy may be an extravagance depending on the severity of the situation or it may mean the difference between living totally hand to mouth and having some extra wealth which can be used for special needs that have to be obtained from some external source. Therefore converting cash to assets that have these intrinsic value now before the hyperinflation hits ( if that is what is going to happen) may be a very wise investment. It may be impossible to obtain these items during hard times due to radical changes in supply and demand. So land, water and energy figure pretty highly in my mind in any doomsday scenario. I remember in 1998 when a massive ice storm left my parents and a huge section of eastern Ontario and Quebec without electricity for 14 days in the cold of January just how things changed in surprising ways. I managed to buy the second last generator that was available to be bought in the eastern half of this country and it had to be shipped to me from Winnipeg Manitoba (probably 2000 km away). There was no electricity anywhere, and neighborhoods were eerily silent. There was no trafic since gas stations were down and gas could only be pumped by hand but cash registers weren't working so many places would not even sell anything. A running generator could be heard for blocks and some were stolen by thieves. In Walkerton Ontario when the municipal water supply became tainted with e. Coli there was a different form of pandemonium. Anyone who had a UV sterilizer and R.O. membrane like me didn't even have to bat an eye but some folks died and many suffer health problems ever since. Depending on how bad things get, having some valuable assets like these may mean a need to defend them as in the example of the generator. I am starting to sound like a whacko survivalist as you sometimes see depicted that way. I don't have a fallout shelter or anything like that but I am definitely working towards ideas that will be of value in situations where I have to be self reliant. I want to get a methane digester going and some passive solar as well as PV on the roof as soon as I can. I plan to do these things modestly just as I have with my BD setup. I don't aspire to be able to get off the grid with my current needs but to be able to have some small amount of power for special needs if the power goes out and for now it can just be a supplement to reduce my environmental footprint. This post is getting long so I am going to cut it off here. Best regards; Joe Cheers Joe MK DuPree wrote: Joe Street asks, Is there anything we at home can do to help speed this process? :) I suggest: Implore your Federal representatives to continue raising the debt ceiling, to continue supporting the war in Iraq and Afghanistan, to start another war in Iran, etc etc. Or better, don't waste your time. Instead, I ask you, Joe, and the List, how do you believe the average Joe should prepare for the inevitable demise of the US dollar??? I'm not trying to be facetious. I'm asking a real question, seeking a real answer. Might not like the answer, but I'd like to hear. Also, Keith, how will Japan be affected? Japan is one of the largest holders of US Debt. Mike DuPree - Original Message - From: Joe Street [EMAIL PROTECTED] mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] To: biofuel@sustainablelists.org mailto:biofuel@sustainablelists.org Sent: Tuesday, May 30, 2006 8:29 AM Subject: [SPAMPROB:51%] Re: [Biofuel] threat to U.S. dollar Is there anything we at home can do to help speed this process? :) Joe AltEnergyNetwork wrote: snip But how long can this continue before the world loose faith in the greenback, sending it crashing to unimaginable levels. ___ Biofuel mailing list Biofuel@sustainablelists.org http://sustainablelists.org/mailman/listinfo/biofuel_sustainablelists.org Biofuel at Journey to Forever: http://journeytoforever.org/biofuel.html Search the combined Biofuel and Biofuels-biz list archives (50,000 messages): http://www.mail-archive.com/biofuel
Re: [Biofuel] threat to U.S. dollar
Keith, After I finished the last email on this issue, I went to take a coffee and turned on CNN. When CNN came on, I learned that Bush had decided to devaluate the dollar by letting it float downwards without any support. I had no idea about that this was happening, but I had not followed the news for a day or so. It confirms however that our discussions on this issue is very actual and now it is only to see at what level the dollar will stabilize. Fortunes will be lost, mostly by foreigners, and Bush managed to hurt his country once more, but it was long overdue anyway. In reality he make the world pay for his war in Iraq. I had no dollar based assets, but I guess that there are many who are very upset. Hakan At 14:10 31/05/2006, you wrote: Hi Robert, Hakan You are correct, but there is a belief over here that engaging in war is GOOD for the economy, and further, that we're strong enough to sustain ongoing warfare. There's the kind of economics that can't distinguish between swords and ploughshares, and the kind that can. The first is a thing of the past with a hangover, the second is of the future, and the present. Eco-economics has been on the table since Maggie Thatcher put it there by mistake in 1988. It's not going to go away, it's been gaining ground steadily. It's not just we Americans who need to do this--though we are certainly among the most gluttonous energy users on the planet--but the entire economic structure upon which society has been built needs reconsideration. It's a casino, and a casino mentality. The only bit of reality in a casino is the fact that the game's loaded in favour of the house, but I don't think the guys who own Las Vegas think you could run the world that way. Or maybe they do, if it's the Mafia that owns Las Vegas, considering the grey areas you always find everywhere between government, big business and organised crime. The other bit of reality is that it's sucking up the whole world like a vacuum cleaner and vanishing it. Time for real economics. The work of the economist Nicholas Georgescu-Roegen is real economics: http://cepa.newschool.edu/het/profiles/georgescu.htm Nicholas Georgescu-Roegen, 1906-1994 There's some of his work here, in the archives: http://www.mail-archive.com/biofuel@sustainablelists.org/msg30418.html [biofuel] Energy and Economic Myths Selections from Energy and Economic Myths by Nicholas Georgescu-Roegen His inheritors are the ecological economists, Herman Daly, Robert Costanza, Michael T. Klare, Joshua Farley and many others. More: http://www.mail-archive.com/biofuel@sustainablelists.org/msg34131.html [biofuel] From Here to Economy http://www.mail-archive.com/biofuel@sustainablelists.org/msg30417.html [biofuel] How Much Is Nature Worth? For You, $33 Trillion http://www.mail-archive.com/biofuel@sustainablelists.org/msg34130.html [biofuel] At What Cost? - Costanza http://www.mail-archive.com/biofuel@sustainablelists.org/msg34129.html [biofuel] The Wealth of Nature http://www.mail-archive.com/biofuel@sustainablelists.org/msg34207.html Re: [biofuel] The Wealth of Nature That's a good read. It has to go that way, and it has been doing so, though it's not centre-screen. It's no more centre-screen that the growth of backyard biodiesel brewing round the world in the last six years, spreading like a weed and suitably out of control for several years now, IMHO. It's a fair comparison because of what you say about energy. If we're going to have an economic collapse I think it might be an energy collapse more than a currency collapse. But I don't think there'll be an economic collapse. If you can't get yourself in shape for localised energy production and supply then you're headed for an economic collapse, but that's your problem, not everyone else's. Not any more, we're leaving that behind. No room for dinosaurs. Even the US army thinks that way these days - they think they'll have to use localised biofuel and bioenergy sources to fight their wars to protect the fossil-fuel supplies. A dinosaur trying on some sheep's clothing. The eco-economic view applies to a lot of areas now. Jules Pretty takes a conservative look at industrialised agriculture in terms of real cost accounting and it turns out to be costing more than it's worth. There's no way of putting it in the black, we'll just have to dump most of it. Pretty also charts a worldwide growth of sustainable farming, small-scale and local. Food miles and fuel miles aren't just talk, the days are numbered for that kind of trade system, with carbon costs hot on its heels, real carbon costs, not the casino stuff they're playing with now. Actually eco-economics does reach centre-screen. It highlights the externalisations of business-as-usual instead of hiding them. A lot of people started to see things that way after Hurricane Katrina. The military's hardly an answer. It can do damage but it can't *win* anything, it's not a sword at all, just a shovel
Re: [Biofuel] threat to U.S. dollar
Thanks Keith...I agree with youthat energyis"a more threatening issue" regarding any possiblecollapse of the US $.The devaluating US dollar can only exacerbate this issue. Very informative...very helpful...info on Japanese life generally. In everyone's own way, sounds like we're all very much alike. Mike DuPree - Original Message - From: "Keith Addison" [EMAIL PROTECTED] To: biofuel@sustainablelists.org Sent: Wednesday, May 31, 2006 7:10 AM Subject: Re: [Biofuel] threat to U.S. dollar Joe Street asks, Is there anything we at home can do to help speed this process? :)I suggest: Implore your Federal representatives to continue raising the debt ceiling, to continue supporting the war in Iraq and Afghanistan, to start another war in Iran, etc etc. Or better, don't waste your time. Or better still, stop killing people so casually and go home, like everybody's telling you to. If you really want to go bombing the hell out of Iran just to fiddle with the Federal Reserve or something you might at least ask them first, it's only polite, it's their collateral after all. Instead, I ask you, Joe, and the List, how do you believe the average "Joe" should prepare for the inevitable demise of the US dollar??? I don't think it's inevitable. Or at least I don't think an economic collapse is inevitable. Or not because of the dollar anyway. Energy is a more threatening issue, IMHO. I'm not trying to be facetious. I'm asking a real question, seeking a real answer. Might not like the answer, but I'd like to hear. Also, Keith, how will Japan be affected? Japan is one of the largest holders of US Debt. Mike DuPree Well, you see, there's this economic crisis here that the Japanese have been struggling to survive in recent years. I guess it will grow even more severe. It's a strange kind of economic crisis, at first glance. For one thing it's not characterised by any shortage of money at any level, if you can picture that. Actually it seems to be impossible to picture it, at least in newspaper articles about the severity of the crisis, which usually show photographs of the stock exchange. No images of suffering or blighted inner cities or rust belts of dead factories rotting away. It's not that they hide it, it's just that there aren't any such things here. When interviewed, ordinary people say they're deeply worried that their retirement income might not be as much as they'd thought. It still won't leave them poor though. There is evidence of the crisis at street level, if you know where to look. In the financial district in Tokyo there are coffee shops that are filled each day with displaced sararimen who've been retrenched. They get up in the morning, grab their suit and attache case and rush off to work as usual even though they don't have a job to go to anymore, because if the truth came out in the neighbourhood the sheer loss of social status would destroy the wife. They're not suffering though except existentially, they get really good pay-offs. Another street-level indicator is how empty the shops are. There's an instant cure available for the sheer burden of hopelessness and depression that comes with trying to live through an economic crisis such as this one. You go shopping. It helps take your mind off things. When it's really serious the shops are full. I guess they'll just go shopping Mike. Sorry... I'm not really joking though. Sweden also has this kind of economic crisis sometimes, that's the envy of the world. They just can't see how rich they are. I laugh at Swedes about it, and they say yes they know, but THIS time it's real. Right. Maybe Switzerland has them too. I'm not sure what Japan's economic policy is. Maybe they haven't got one, it's kind of hard to find an actual policy on anything in Japan. It doesn't seem to be how they do things here. Henry Ford invented the "Just In Time" inventory strategy of stock keeping, but it was Toyota who put it on the map. It's very Japanese! Maybe it describes Japanese economics quite well too, JIT economics. It might look like they haven't seen something creeping up on them but I wouldn't bank on it. Japan has the world's fifth largest military budget but the military is just about invisible here, and they pay for it without arms exports. I don't think anyone else can manage that, or not easily. Japan is strangely invisible in many ways, but it's one of the three great economic powers in the world, its technological base is the equal of any, and whatever the economic future holds Japan is sure to play a major role in it. They're capable of things the West wouldn't imagine, they have different depths of experience to draw on, they keep proving it. They have a great deal to contribute. Best Keith - Original Message -From: "Joe Street" mailto:[E
Re: [Biofuel] threat to U.S. dollar
Thanks Joe...can I move in??? Oh, and can I bring...??? Very helpful. Amazing how complicated simplifying our lives has become. Good to have some guidelines. Mike DuPree - Original Message - From: Joe Street [EMAIL PROTECTED] To: biofuel@sustainablelists.org Sent: Wednesday, May 31, 2006 9:02 AM Subject: Re: [Biofuel] threat to U.S. dollar Hi Mike; Well there is considerable uncertainty and debate about what form the restructuring will take but little argument that it is going to happen sooner or later. The best strategy is therefore also unknown but I think one can still plan for some general conditions which may be present in any scenario. In times of hyper inflation things are valued more in terms of what they are and the potentialities that they represent in terms of basic needs than they are in our society in present times. Therefore anyone who can provide for themselves in areas of basic needs may be considered rich in some regards. The ability to provide for your own food requirements can be very important. The ability to obtain and render water safe for consumption ranks right up there if you are independant with it. The ability to produce some energy may be an extravagance depending on the severity of the situation or it may mean the difference between living totally hand to mouth and having some extra wealth which can be used for special needs that have to be obtained from some external source. Therefore converting cash to assets that have these intrinsic value now before the hyperinflation hits ( if that is what is going to happen) may be a very wise investment. It may be impossible to obtain these items during hard times due to radical changes in supply and demand. So land, water and energy figure pretty highly in my mind in any doomsday scenario. I remember in 1998 when a massive ice storm left my parents and a huge section of eastern Ontario and Quebec without electricity for 14 days in the cold of January just how things changed in surprising ways. I managed to buy the second last generator that was available to be bought in the eastern half of this country and it had to be shipped to me from Winnipeg Manitoba (probably 2000 km away). There was no electricity anywhere, and neighborhoods were eerily silent. There was no trafic since gas stations were down and gas could only be pumped by hand but cash registers weren't working so many places would not even sell anything. A running generator could be heard for blocks and some were stolen by thieves. In Walkerton Ontario when the municipal water supply became tainted with e. Coli there was a different form of pandemonium. Anyone who had a UV sterilizer and R.O. membrane like me didn't even have to bat an eye but some folks died and many suffer health problems ever since. Depending on how bad things get, having some valuable assets like these may mean a need to defend them as in the example of the generator. I am starting to sound like a whacko survivalist as you sometimes see depicted that way. I don't have a fallout shelter or anything like that but I am definitely working towards ideas that will be of value in situations where I have to be self reliant. I want to get a methane digester going and some passive solar as well as PV on the roof as soon as I can. I plan to do these things modestly just as I have with my BD setup. I don't aspire to be able to get off the grid with my current needs but to be able to have some small amount of power for special needs if the power goes out and for now it can just be a supplement to reduce my environmental footprint. This post is getting long so I am going to cut it off here. Best regards; Joe Cheers Joe MK DuPree wrote: Joe Street asks, Is there anything we at home can do to help speed this process? :) I suggest: Implore your Federal representatives to continue raising the debt ceiling, to continue supporting the war in Iraq and Afghanistan, to start another war in Iran, etc etc. Or better, don't waste your time. Instead, I ask you, Joe, and the List, how do you believe the average Joe should prepare for the inevitable demise of the US dollar??? I'm not trying to be facetious. I'm asking a real question, seeking a real answer. Might not like the answer, but I'd like to hear. Also, Keith, how will Japan be affected? Japan is one of the largest holders of US Debt. Mike DuPree - Original Message - From: Joe Street [EMAIL PROTECTED] mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] To: biofuel@sustainablelists.org mailto:biofuel@sustainablelists.org Sent: Tuesday, May 30, 2006 8:29 AM Subject: [SPAMPROB:51%] Re: [Biofuel] threat to U.S. dollar Is there anything we at home can do to help speed this process? :) Joe AltEnergyNetwork wrote: snip But how long can this continue before the world loose faith in the greenback, sending it crashing to unimaginable levels
Re: [Biofuel] threat to U.S. dollar
Hakan...I've looked on the CNN website, thinking I might find some mention of this story there, but found nothing. What day did you see this? What time (Central Standard Time, USA)??? Thanks. Mike DuPree - Original Message - From: Hakan Falk [EMAIL PROTECTED] To: biofuel@sustainablelists.org Sent: Wednesday, May 31, 2006 9:30 AM Subject: Re: [Biofuel] threat to U.S. dollar Keith, After I finished the last email on this issue, I went to take a coffee and turned on CNN. When CNN came on, I learned that Bush had decided to devaluate the dollar by letting it float downwards without any support. I had no idea about that this was happening, but I had not followed the news for a day or so. It confirms however that our discussions on this issue is very actual and now it is only to see at what level the dollar will stabilize. Fortunes will be lost, mostly by foreigners, and Bush managed to hurt his country once more, but it was long overdue anyway. In reality he make the world pay for his war in Iraq. I had no dollar based assets, but I guess that there are many who are very upset. Hakan At 14:10 31/05/2006, you wrote: Hi Robert, Hakan You are correct, but there is a belief over here that engaging in war is GOOD for the economy, and further, that we're strong enough to sustain ongoing warfare. There's the kind of economics that can't distinguish between swords and ploughshares, and the kind that can. The first is a thing of the past with a hangover, the second is of the future, and the present. Eco-economics has been on the table since Maggie Thatcher put it there by mistake in 1988. It's not going to go away, it's been gaining ground steadily. It's not just we Americans who need to do this--though we are certainly among the most gluttonous energy users on the planet--but the entire economic structure upon which society has been built needs reconsideration. It's a casino, and a casino mentality. The only bit of reality in a casino is the fact that the game's loaded in favour of the house, but I don't think the guys who own Las Vegas think you could run the world that way. Or maybe they do, if it's the Mafia that owns Las Vegas, considering the grey areas you always find everywhere between government, big business and organised crime. The other bit of reality is that it's sucking up the whole world like a vacuum cleaner and vanishing it. Time for real economics. The work of the economist Nicholas Georgescu-Roegen is real economics: http://cepa.newschool.edu/het/profiles/georgescu.htm Nicholas Georgescu-Roegen, 1906-1994 There's some of his work here, in the archives: http://www.mail-archive.com/biofuel@sustainablelists.org/msg30418.html [biofuel] Energy and Economic Myths Selections from Energy and Economic Myths by Nicholas Georgescu-Roegen His inheritors are the ecological economists, Herman Daly, Robert Costanza, Michael T. Klare, Joshua Farley and many others. More: http://www.mail-archive.com/biofuel@sustainablelists.org/msg34131.html [biofuel] From Here to Economy http://www.mail-archive.com/biofuel@sustainablelists.org/msg30417.html [biofuel] How Much Is Nature Worth? For You, $33 Trillion http://www.mail-archive.com/biofuel@sustainablelists.org/msg34130.html [biofuel] At What Cost? - Costanza http://www.mail-archive.com/biofuel@sustainablelists.org/msg34129.html [biofuel] The Wealth of Nature http://www.mail-archive.com/biofuel@sustainablelists.org/msg34207.html Re: [biofuel] The Wealth of Nature That's a good read. It has to go that way, and it has been doing so, though it's not centre-screen. It's no more centre-screen that the growth of backyard biodiesel brewing round the world in the last six years, spreading like a weed and suitably out of control for several years now, IMHO. It's a fair comparison because of what you say about energy. If we're going to have an economic collapse I think it might be an energy collapse more than a currency collapse. But I don't think there'll be an economic collapse. If you can't get yourself in shape for localised energy production and supply then you're headed for an economic collapse, but that's your problem, not everyone else's. Not any more, we're leaving that behind. No room for dinosaurs. Even the US army thinks that way these days - they think they'll have to use localised biofuel and bioenergy sources to fight their wars to protect the fossil-fuel supplies. A dinosaur trying on some sheep's clothing. The eco-economic view applies to a lot of areas now. Jules Pretty takes a conservative look at industrialised agriculture in terms of real cost accounting and it turns out to be costing more than it's worth. There's no way of putting it in the black, we'll just have to dump most of it. Pretty also charts a worldwide growth of sustainable farming, small-scale and local. Food miles and fuel miles aren't just talk, the days are numbered for that kind of trade system, with carbon costs hot
Re: [Biofuel] threat to U.S. dollar
Is there anything we at home can do to help speed this process? :) Joe AltEnergyNetwork wrote: http://www.vheadline.com/readnews.asp?id=58951 Threat against the US$ comes from countries such as Iran and Venezuela... Former Nordland University (Norway) associate professor, Dr. Abbas Bakhtiar writes: On Wednesday, May 17, the Dow Jones plunged 214 points to 11,206 -- its worst point drop since March 2003. The downward trend started a week ago and is a warning sign of troubles ahead. This sudden drop has come as a complete surprise to the unfortunate small investors and speculators. The so called “experts” point at the sudden threat of inflation as the main cause of the recent reversals in the markets. What is actually surprising is the surprise of the “experts. A cursory look at the United States’ finances will reveal the amount of pressure that its economy is under. When Bush became president in 2001, the United States’ public debt was 5.8 trillion dollars. Today the public debt stands at US$8.3 trillion. Of this over $2.2 trillion are held by foreigners. The United States has a GDP of $12.4 trillion ... this gives the US a Debt/GDP ratio of 66%, placing it in 35th place (out of 113) in the ranking of the Debtor Nations. The current account deficit of over 7% has long passed its danger levels of 4-5%. In 2005 the US government paid $325 billion only in interest payments alone. Then, there are the future obligations such as Medicare, Social Security and government pensions. These obligations amount to $54 trillion. This huge problem worried the former Federal Reserve Chairman, Alan Greenspan. He told congress: “As a nation, we may have already made promises to coming generations of retirees that we will be unable to fulfil.” One would think that this amount of debt would worry the president and the congress ... but apparently it does not. The United States’ Congress recently (March 2006) voted to increase the Federal debt limit to $9 trillion. Any other nation in similar circumstances would have had to approach IMF for help. The IMF would then have forced that nation to cut spending and devalue its currency ... but US does not need to do this. The US can just print some more dollars. But how long can this continue before the world loose faith in the greenback, sending it crashing to unimaginable levels. The Asian Lender The Asian countries such as Japan, China and others that hold most of the US debts have been happy to indulge the American deficit spending. This has been a two-way Street, America has kept its market open to their products and they have financed the Americans’ spending. The value of US dollar so far has been kept artificially high by Japan, China and oil-exporting countries. These countries by buying US debts have has kept interests rates relatively low in the United States and allowed Americans to keep spending even as their debts mount. But there is only so much risk these lenders (Asian and oil-exporting countries) are willing to take. Any serious devaluation of the US$ will considerably reduce the value of their national reserves (mostly kept in dollars) and the value of their debt holdings (certificates, bonds, etc.). At the same time, the devaluation will affect their exports to the US. A weaker dollar makes their products more expensive in US, thereby reducing their export earnings. Most Asian countries keep up to 70% of their reserves in dollars. China with the reserves of over $800 billion has already begun to slowly reduce its dependency on dollars by converting part of its reserves to other currencies. If other Asian countries -- with their vast dollar holdings -- follow suit, then it will be disastrous for the value of dollar. Nobody is interested in holding a weakening currency. Petro-Dollar Another threat against the dollar comes from countries such as Iran and Venezuela. Iran recently registered an Oil Bourse to compete with Bourses in New York and London. The threat comes from the currency in which the oil is to be sold in Euro. Iranians are going to make the Euro the standard currency for oil transactions. Some sympathetic countries such as Venezuela and others may join in. If the Iranians succeed in this, the pressure on dollar will be catastrophic. Nearly every country has to hold a certain amount of dollars in reserve for oil purchases. If the dollar continues to weaken in value, and there is the possibility of purchasing oil in Euro, then these countries would unload their dollars for safer currencies such as Euro. What will then happen to the value of dollar? Iraq and Iran As though there is not enough pressure on the dollar, the US government keeps spending money in an un-winnable war in Iraq and is considering starting another one in
Re: [Biofuel] threat to U.S. dollar
It has already been done by reelecting Bush, now it is only to sit and wait for the results. Hakan At 15:29 30/05/2006, you wrote: Is there anything we at home can do to help speed this process? :) Joe AltEnergyNetwork wrote: http://www.vheadline.com/readnews.asp?id=58951 Threat against the US$ comes from countries such as Iran and Venezuela... Former Nordland University (Norway) associate professor, Dr. Abbas Bakhtiar writes: On Wednesday, May 17, the Dow Jones plunged 214 points to 11,206 -- its worst point drop since March 2003. The downward trend started a week ago and is a warning sign of troubles ahead. This sudden drop has come as a complete surprise to the unfortunate small investors and speculators. The so called experts point at the sudden threat of inflation as the main cause of the recent reversals in the markets. What is actually surprising is the surprise of the experts. A cursory look at the United States' finances will reveal the amount of pressure that its economy is under. When Bush became president in 2001, the United States' public debt was 5.8 trillion dollars. Today the public debt stands at US$8.3 trillion. Of this over $2.2 trillion are held by foreigners. The United States has a GDP of $12.4 trillion ... this gives the US a Debt/GDP ratio of 66%, placing it in 35th place (out of 113) in the ranking of the Debtor Nations. The current account deficit of over 7% has long passed its danger levels of 4-5%. In 2005 the US government paid $325 billion only in interest payments alone. Then, there are the future obligations such as Medicare, Social Security and government pensions. These obligations amount to $54 trillion. This huge problem worried the former Federal Reserve Chairman, Alan Greenspan. He told congress: As a nation, we may have already made promises to coming generations of retirees that we will be unable to fulfil. One would think that this amount of debt would worry the president and the congress ... but apparently it does not. The United States' Congress recently (March 2006) voted to increase the Federal debt limit to $9 trillion. Any other nation in similar circumstances would have had to approach IMF for help. The IMF would then have forced that nation to cut spending and devalue its currency ... but US does not need to do this. The US can just print some more dollars. But how long can this continue before the world loose faith in the greenback, sending it crashing to unimaginable levels. The Asian Lender The Asian countries such as Japan, China and others that hold most of the US debts have been happy to indulge the American deficit spending. This has been a two-way Street, America has kept its market open to their products and they have financed the Americans' spending. The value of US dollar so far has been kept artificially high by Japan, China and oil-exporting countries. These countries by buying US debts have has kept interests rates relatively low in the United States and allowed Americans to keep spending even as their debts mount. But there is only so much risk these lenders (Asian and oil-exporting countries) are willing to take. Any serious devaluation of the US$ will considerably reduce the value of their national reserves (mostly kept in dollars) and the value of their debt holdings (certificates, bonds, etc.). At the same time, the devaluation will affect their exports to the US. A weaker dollar makes their products more expensive in US, thereby reducing their export earnings. Most Asian countries keep up to 70% of their reserves in dollars. China with the reserves of over $800 billion has already begun to slowly reduce its dependency on dollars by converting part of its reserves to other currencies. If other Asian countries -- with their vast dollar holdings -- follow suit, then it will be disastrous for the value of dollar. Nobody is interested in holding a weakening currency. Petro-Dollar Another threat against the dollar comes from countries such as Iran and Venezuela. Iran recently registered an Oil Bourse to compete with Bourses in New York and London. The threat comes from the currency in which the oil is to be sold in Euro. Iranians are going to make the Euro the standard currency for oil transactions. Some sympathetic countries such as Venezuela and others may join in. If the Iranians succeed in this, the pressure on dollar will be catastrophic. Nearly every country has to hold a certain amount of dollars in reserve for oil purchases. If the dollar continues to weaken in value, and there is the possibility of purchasing oil in Euro, then these countries would unload their dollars for safer currencies such as Euro. What will then happen to the value of dollar? Iraq
Re: [Biofuel] threat to U.S. dollar
Hakan Falk wrote: snip You will see effects like the depression in the 30's and a lot of suicides, as it was then. (and from a follow up message) US will lose much of its financial wealth, import jobs are going to be lost. The average Joe will not go under in any way, but the wealthy 10% of the population, will be hurt a lot and many fortunes wiped out. Why US have been allowed to run so large debts and deficits, is because a lot of foreign fortunes will be wiped out also. The one who is the least effected, is the average American Joe, employed in local produce, distribution, export etc. You will see mushroom clouds above major cities long before this happens. When we go down, we will drag all the rest of you with us. The fundamental difference between the United States and other, earlier empires is that we have the capability to utterly destroy anyone we perceive as an enemy, and our current administration has already demonstrated that it has greater loyalties to the rich than to the rest of its citizens. robert luis rabello The Edge of Justice Adventure for Your Mind http://www.newadventure.ca Ranger Supercharger Project Page http://www.members.shaw.ca/rabello/ ___ Biofuel mailing list Biofuel@sustainablelists.org http://sustainablelists.org/mailman/listinfo/biofuel_sustainablelists.org Biofuel at Journey to Forever: http://journeytoforever.org/biofuel.html Search the combined Biofuel and Biofuels-biz list archives (50,000 messages): http://www.mail-archive.com/biofuel@sustainablelists.org/
Re: [Biofuel] threat to U.S. dollar
Robert, I do not really understand what you are saying. Who are the enemies? Who is responsible, if you have to do one or two devaluations, to adjust your economy? Who will be bombed and why, because I suppose that it is not US that is the target? Why would US start a WWIII over a such a simple issue as adjusting its economy. I have only outlined what happens in an economic adjustment, which is long overdue for US. Who are the rich that will lose and cause any such actions as bombings etc. It is not the oil and energy industries and it is not the property owners, both would gain. The other rich people, does not have the clout and influence, to start a meaningless bombing campaign. The devaluation will happen, because it is long overdue. I can not see how it can be avoided. The mistake is that it has been avoided too long and the final result is a major devaluation. Instead of two or three smaller ones, with time to adjust between them. The result of bad politicians that think more of themselves than the country. None wants to preside over a unpopular but necessary action. US is much less an empire today, than it was 20-40 years ago. It might still be seen as an evil empire in developing countries, where their corporations drain them on their natural resources. US is not an empire, because it have no colonies. Maybe it was a financial empire, but most of it is already lost and it is much more balance today. It is only South America that still have some reasons to be described as part of US financial empire. in the old sense. They are also running the largest risk of US military interventions, to secure US needs of energy and natural resources. Would however not happen at once and it would be a big mistake, since it is not winnable without local cooperation. US have de facto occupied South America for a long time now and we are seeing the start of the end of the puppet regimes that was the instrument. For sure, it will not work in middle east and the Iraq attempt will fail. Hakan At 18:57 30/05/2006, you wrote: Hakan Falk wrote: snip You will see effects like the depression in the 30's and a lot of suicides, as it was then. (and from a follow up message) US will lose much of its financial wealth, import jobs are going to be lost. The average Joe will not go under in any way, but the wealthy 10% of the population, will be hurt a lot and many fortunes wiped out. Why US have been allowed to run so large debts and deficits, is because a lot of foreign fortunes will be wiped out also. The one who is the least effected, is the average American Joe, employed in local produce, distribution, export etc. You will see mushroom clouds above major cities long before this happens. When we go down, we will drag all the rest of you with us. The fundamental difference between the United States and other, earlier empires is that we have the capability to utterly destroy anyone we perceive as an enemy, and our current administration has already demonstrated that it has greater loyalties to the rich than to the rest of its citizens. robert luis rabello The Edge of Justice Adventure for Your Mind http://www.newadventure.ca Ranger Supercharger Project Page http://www.members.shaw.ca/rabello/ ___ Biofuel mailing list Biofuel@sustainablelists.org http://sustainablelists.org/mailman/listinfo/biofuel_sustainablelists.org Biofuel at Journey to Forever: http://journeytoforever.org/biofuel.html Search the combined Biofuel and Biofuels-biz list archives (50,000 messages): http://www.mail-archive.com/biofuel@sustainablelists.org/
Re: [Biofuel] threat to U.S. dollar
Hakan Falk wrote: Robert, I do not really understand what you are saying. It's not your fault that I'm not communicating clearly! Who are the enemies? Anyone who attempts to exert control over the US economy, even if that control consists of protecting their investments in bonds, dollars and US assets. In essence everyone else is the enemy. We are, in effect, taxing foreigners by the gradual degradation of our currency in order to sustain our spending, and there are a LOT of people over here who are quite content to keep doing this. Who is responsible, if you have to do one or two devaluations, to adjust your economy? Mr. Nixon did this back in the 1970's, and by doing so initiated a round of inflation that benefitted property owners, as you've pointed out. Here is an excerpt from an online article that explains this. I've snipped it from the following page: http://www.tpmcafe.com/node/29686 However, devaluation, fast or slow, almost never produces the effect of moving economic activity from non-tradeable to tradeable goods. Instead, as with the Argentine devaluation, or the devaluation that occurred earlier in Bush's term, it moves the country towards more protectionism. As the value of a currency drops, consumers continue to spend, but transfer money from the local economy, to exporting – deficits continue to rise, and investment in the home country falls. Or the home country proceeds to halt exports of materials far down the value chain, and attempts to add value and engage in import substitution. In effect converting inefficient non-tradeable parts of the economy to inefficient trading. The result is a loss of the advantages to trade – as work that could be done more efficiently elsewhere is done inside the devaluing country. Since labor prices have dropped, this lower value add strategy works. This is what weak currencies really do – by lowering the relative cost of labor, they make lower value add strategies more effective. Afterall, it isn' t the efficient non-tradeable production that goes first, it is the marginal non-tradeable production that will be shifted first. This is why devaluation only works if combined with some form of economic restructuring to radically shift incentives. Generally at the root of all overvalued currencies was an incentive to engage in the protected economy – often through excessive budget outlays, but just as often through corrupt or collusive market practices. For example, a large and unproductive war for the benefit of a few industries. Such restructuring is painful, as people who have skills and capital lose out – just ask American high tech workers, or Argentinians of any walk of life. This is why while devaluation – which hurts mainly foreigners at first, is often a popular step in lieu of restructuring. The problem of course is that most nations import oil. For nations trying to reign in consumption, this is not a problem – making oil more expensive acts as a luxury tax. For those with enough energy to support themselves, or nearly so, it is a burden, but a manageable one. For a nation like the US, which neither wishes to change its driving habits, nor wants to even begin restructuring, it is unlikely that difficult decisions will be made. On the contrary, the most recent action of the US government was to continue the red queen's race of cutting taxes on the wealthy here, so that they can stay even with the oil exporters that can hold dollars to prop up the US currency. Clearly the belief in Washington is that Reaganomics can be run a few more cycles, and damn the long term consequences. This is why devaluing to avoid a recession usually doesn't work, because it is the recession, with its enforced rationing, that is generally the trigger for restructuring in an economy. People in pain are more willing to make decisions that are painful, since they have come to understand that they cannot defer the pain, nor make it fall on someone else instead. Devaluation isn't an evil in itself, however, by itself, it generally produces more evil than good. Of more use is the ability to unpeg a currency and float it when it is pegged in a manner that distorts the economy, but this too has its perils. Countries unpegged from gold in the 1930's successful, if they had an export market and an internal economy in good order. However, the floating of currencies in 1972-73 merely turned inflation into another round of stagflation. Once again, the ability to shift production is required. Thus the current drive for normalization of currencies - which is to say dollar devaluation - is unlikely to do more than drive up the price of gasoline, and shift effort out of marginal service production in the US, leading to slower job creation, since marginal service jobs represent the bulk of jobs created, while the real deadweight non-tradeables - large houses - and the real sponges of US import - gas and
Re: [Biofuel] threat to U.S. dollar
Robert, Now we are starting to get somewhere and thank you for posting a good and fuller description of the problem. It is however not possible to sustain and the corrections will come in a controlled or uncontrolled fashion. The damage that the current inactivity and activities who worsen the problem. will be severe for US and the industrialized world. The situation will not go away, that is for sure and US cannot afford the current war in Iraq. For only economic reasons, US get lesser and the financial empire smaller and smaller. It is no one to bomb, because it is none who is trying to get in control. The reality is that US lost the control and have none to blame for it, therefore it is a lack of targets for bombing. It is no one who is trying to target US for economic control or destruction of its economy, other than US itself. US is at the moment put in self destruct mode and even if the rest of the world like to help, it is not accepted or possible. There are many problems with the US economy, one is the belief that they could export services to balance the lack of production. The markets for US services have failed to materialize. As pointed out, the cost of engaging in war, only worsen the situation. The second world war saved the US economy, because they aided and sold war materials to Europe. A third world war will be US against the world and would not have any economical benefits. Iraq is an internal shift of wealth in US, but an external cost for the US population. US will not be able to get the future profits from the Iraqi oil, which I said a long time ago and it is clearer now. The article you refer to, describe the situation much better than I do, but also fail to suggest any solution. Other than maybe a meaningful devaluation with the austerity measures that must go with it. Hakan At 20:58 30/05/2006, you wrote: Hakan Falk wrote: Robert, I do not really understand what you are saying. It's not your fault that I'm not communicating clearly! Who are the enemies? Anyone who attempts to exert control over the US economy, even if that control consists of protecting their investments in bonds, dollars and US assets. In essence everyone else is the enemy. We are, in effect, taxing foreigners by the gradual degradation of our currency in order to sustain our spending, and there are a LOT of people over here who are quite content to keep doing this. Who is responsible, if you have to do one or two devaluations, to adjust your economy? Mr. Nixon did this back in the 1970's, and by doing so initiated a round of inflation that benefitted property owners, as you've pointed out. Here is an excerpt from an online article that explains this. I've snipped it from the following page: http://www.tpmcafe.com/node/29686 However, devaluation, fast or slow, almost never produces the effect of moving economic activity from non-tradeable to tradeable goods. Instead, as with the Argentine devaluation, or the devaluation that occurred earlier in Bush's term, it moves the country towards more protectionism. As the value of a currency drops, consumers continue to spend, but transfer money from the local economy, to exporting deficits continue to rise, and investment in the home country falls. Or the home country proceeds to halt exports of materials far down the value chain, and attempts to add value and engage in import substitution. In effect converting inefficient non-tradeable parts of the economy to inefficient trading. The result is a loss of the advantages to trade as work that could be done more efficiently elsewhere is done inside the devaluing country. Since labor prices have dropped, this lower value add strategy works. This is what weak currencies really do by lowering the relative cost of labor, they make lower value add strategies more effective. Afterall, it isn' t the efficient non-tradeable production that goes first, it is the marginal non-tradeable production that will be shifted first. This is why devaluation only works if combined with some form of economic restructuring to radically shift incentives. Generally at the root of all overvalued currencies was an incentive to engage in the protected economy often through excessive budget outlays, but just as often through corrupt or collusive market practices. For example, a large and unproductive war for the benefit of a few industries. Such restructuring is painful, as people who have skills and capital lose out just ask American high tech workers, or Argentinians of any walk of life. This is why while devaluation which hurts mainly foreigners at first, is often a popular step in lieu of restructuring. The problem of course is that most nations import oil. For nations trying to reign in consumption, this is not a problem making oil more expensive acts as a luxury tax. For those with enough energy to support themselves, or nearly so, it is a burden, but a manageable one. For a nation like the US, which
Re: [Biofuel] threat to U.S. dollar
Hakan Falk wrote: Robert, Now we are starting to get somewhere and thank you for posting a good and fuller description of the problem. You're welcome! There are many problems with the US economy, one is the belief that they could export services to balance the lack of production. The markets for US services have failed to materialize. As pointed out, the cost of engaging in war, only worsen the situation. You are correct, but there is a belief over here that engaging in war is GOOD for the economy, and further, that we're strong enough to sustain ongoing warfare. I think the devaluation of labor expenses through currency degradation in the US serves the interests of large corporations who WANT cheap labor from desperate people in order to sustain profit margins. Witness the growing disparity between CEO salaries and wages for the average worker as an example of why powerful people are interested in maintaining the status-quo. The situation WILL get worse, but to what extent and what rate, no one can be certain. I'm convinced, however, that the policies we see in place now will be continued without respite until the whole thing collapses. Too many of us have a rather arrogant view that the world cannot exist without our market. We are large, and we seem wealthy, but much of that wealth is an illusion. In reality, fewer and fewer people are controlling more and more of the world's wealth. The article you refer to, describe the situation much better than I do, but also fail to suggest any solution. Other than maybe a meaningful devaluation with the austerity measures that must go with it. You were right about the situation in Iraq, and you're right that our current economic paradigm cannot be sustained. The solution to all of this involves the foundation principles guiding discussion on the biofuels list. We have to learn how to control our appetites for energy and develop patterns of resource use that are locally controlled and sustainable. It's not just we Americans who need to do this--though we are certainly among the most gluttonous energy users on the planet--but the entire economic structure upon which society has been built needs reconsideration. However, there are too many people who don't want to limit their appetites, and the ongoing devaluation of labor is perceived as good for business. robert luis rabello The Edge of Justice Adventure for Your Mind http://www.newadventure.ca Ranger Supercharger Project Page http://www.members.shaw.ca/rabello/ ___ Biofuel mailing list Biofuel@sustainablelists.org http://sustainablelists.org/mailman/listinfo/biofuel_sustainablelists.org Biofuel at Journey to Forever: http://journeytoforever.org/biofuel.html Search the combined Biofuel and Biofuels-biz list archives (50,000 messages): http://www.mail-archive.com/biofuel@sustainablelists.org/
