t-and-f: Sept 22 NCAA D-1 Women's Poll Analysis posted
Analysis of the 2003 NCAA Division I Women's Cross Country Coaches' Poll
by Mike Scott,
University of Rhode Island
Updated: September 22
For the 7th consecutive year, I am analyzing the Women's Division I Coaches' Poll.
Teams are listed according to their ranking in the current edition of the
FinishLynx/NCAA DIVISION I WOMEN'S CROSS COUNTRY NATIONAL POLL, as conducted by the
Women's Intercollegiate Cross Country Coaches' Association.
Here are the Top 5 Teams; the complete version of the analysis is listed at:
http://miscott.home.att.net/wxcanal/
Notes: Places listed in parentheses refer to finish at the 2002 NCAA D-1 XC
Championships at Indiana State University, unless otherwise noted. Performances are
from the 2002-03 year, unless otherwise noted. Performances at the Foot Locker High
School Cross Country Championships are denoted by FL.
As always, I appreciate additions, corrections, and updates. Please send them to me
at [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Next Weekend: The September 26-27 weekend marks the kick-off of the serious cross
country season.
Great American (9/26) -- Brigham Young, Campbell, Coastal Carolina, Duke, Florida
State, Grand Valley State, Liberty, North Carolina State, Northernn Arizona, Texas A
M, New Mexico, North Carolina, North Carolina - Charlotte, Virginia, US Military
Academy, William and Mary
Roy Griak (9/27) -- Arizona, Arizona State, Baylor, Boston College, Colorado State,
Columbia, Indiana, Iowa State, Marquette, Michigan, Michigaan State, Minnesota,
Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Northern Iowa, Northwestern, Penn State, Providence,
Southern Utah, Texas Tech, Toledo, Utah State, Wake Forest, Wartburg (IA), Washington
State, Weber State
Stanford (9/27) -- 4K 6K races: Arkansas, Cal-Santa Barbara, Stanford, UCLA,
Wisconsin
Iona Meet of Champions (9/27) -- Auburn, Boston U, Brown, Cornell, Dartmouth, Rhode
Island, Yale
TOP THIRTY TEAMS:
1. Brigham Young
Patrick Shane's defending champion BYU Cougars have now won 4 of the last six NCAA
team titles ('97, '99, '01, '02), including the last two crowns. NCAA steeplechase
champs Michaela Mannova ('02) and Kassi Andersen ('03) return to lead the Cougars.
Mannova, who finished 5th in both the '01 and '02 NCAA harrier races, redshirted the
outdoor season but notched a swift 9:42.01 steeple while winning silver at this
summer's Euro under-23 meet. In her absence, '02 USA Junior 1500 champ Andersen (7th)
ran away with the steeple title in an NCAA meet record 9:44.95 before claiming silver
at the USA championships. Also returning for BYU are Breanne Sandberg (41st), Lisa
Antonelli (10:14.37s/c), Shalice Pugmire (10:32.88s/c), as well as a possible key for
the Cougars' hopes of a three-peat: former two-time cross country All-American Laura
Turner (26th '99, 31st '98) who served on an LDS mission in 2000 and 2001. Foot
Locker finalists Ruth Graham (12th FL) and Amber Harper (13th FL) could help bolster
the Cougars' lineup.
BYU opened by running a B squad (BYU's website stated that they held out the top 5
or 6 runners) at the BYU Alumni Inv, where they 1-2-3-4-5'd the field with Antonelli,
Suzanna Larsen, and Breanne Sandberg finishing together. Breane Sandberg won the 9/13
BYU Autumn Classic to lead a mostly B squad to an easy team win over cross state
rival Weber State. Sandberg, Larsen, Rena Williams, Antonelli, and Jami Caldwell
scored for the Cougars. BYU ran completely different B squad in Hawaii and fell to
UCLA; of note for the Cougars were seasonal debuts for Michaela Mannova's (easy win)
and Foot Locker finalist Amber Harper's (a bit back in 10th).
Meets: 9/26 Great American, 10/10 AzSt, 10/17 Pre-NCAA, 11/1 Mountain West Conf (San
Diego), 11/15 Mountain Reg (Ft Collins, CO)
Returnees: Michaela Mannova (5th, 5th '01, 148th '00; 9:42.01s/c; '02 steeplechase
champ), Kassi Andersen (7th; 2:08.10, 4:18.04 '01, 9:44.95s/c, '03 steeplechase champ,
2nd USA s/c, 1st '02 USA Jr 1500), Breanne Sandberg (41st; 16:22.59), Shalice Pugmire
(10:32.88s/c), Aneta Lemiesz (2:05.30), Lisa Antonelli (10:14.37s/c), Laura Turner
(26th '99, 31st '98; 16:38.67)
Newcomer: Ruth Graham (12th FL; 10:02.7 3k, 10:46.87y); Amber Harper (13th FL;
4:37.95, 9:54.44 3k); Julie Cameron (2:12.83, 5:10.45i), Whitney McDonald (CA)
2. Stanford
Despite the loss of 3-time NCAA 5k champion Lauren Fleshman and mile standout Malindi
Elmore as well as a coaching change, the Cardinal appears to be set for another run at
the NCAA harrier crown. Following the departure of Stanford mentor Vin Lannana for
greener pastures (well, at least Ohio), former All-American Dena Evans was promoted to
Head Women's Coach. NCAA 10k champ Alicia Craig finished 3rd in Terre Haute last fall
and will lead Stanford this fall and should be joined up front by teammate Sara Bei
(57th). Jeane Goff and Anita Siraki round out the NCAA returnees for the Cardinal.
Coach Evans scored big with this year's recruiting
t-and-f: naming sources
--- Gerald Woodward [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: (rumor mongers) do not have the decency to reveal their sources! If their sources are so valid, what do they fear by revealing them? Quite a bit, really. Many such things (not referring to just drug talk) are learned confidentially. Betraying that trust can get lots of people in trouble for leaking the information and burn bridges with the source. Dan = http://AbleDesign.com - Web Design Custom Programming http://Run-Down.com - 10,000 Running Links, Fantasy TF @o Dan Kaplan - [EMAIL PROTECTED] |\/ ^- ( [EMAIL PROTECTED] or [EMAIL PROTECTED] ) _/ \ \/\ (503)370-9969 phone/fax / / __ Do you Yahoo!? Yahoo! SiteBuilder - Free, easy-to-use web site design software http://sitebuilder.yahoo.com
Re: t-and-f: Perceptions
Both plus a course that isn't eligible for World best marks I don't think. edndana wrote: The whole drug issue is still one which is based primarily on emotion and moral bases ... Data is thrown out in an attempt to support these assumptions ... But as you yourself lhave repeated stated these arguments are based on perceptions ... In most professions perceptions are hardly enough to get an idea off the drawing board ! Actually, in most professions, perceptions govern the majority of what happens even though people try to act like they don't. It strikes me that - whichever side of the argument one is on - this discussion proves that the track field list is no different (note that I certainly include myself among those governed by perceptions!) Now, how about Radcliffe's half - a great performance or simply a soft record (or both)? - Ed Parrot
t-and-f: spreadsheets for tracking sprints? urls for us sprinters' recent season results?
i need some help from the able-minded statisticians out there (so i guess the other weak-minded ones except me can ignore) i'm trying to help someone build some spreadsheets to track some sprinters' performances for several seasons and i was wondering if anybody already a handy excel template already built that i could copy i'm assuming excel is the simplest/smartest software to use go (esp. since that's the only logical software i already have) also if somebody knows of a website or database with results for entire seasons of results for u.s. sprinters (mw) for the past few years, any url's would be much appreciated (and an oregon merchandise-related thank-you would be in order) thanks for the help g Geoff Thurner Assistant Director - Track Field, Cross Country, Soccer Contact University of Oregon Media Services - Athletics Len Casanova Center 2727 Leo Harris Parkway Eugene, OR 97401 Phone: (541) 346-2250 Fax: (541) 346-5449 [EMAIL PROTECTED] www.GoDucks.com GO DUCKS!! - GO DUCKS!! - GO DUCKS!!
Re: Re:Re: t-and-f: Drugs
At 12:24 PM 9/23/2003 -0700, Conway Hill wrote: Potential identifies the unknown ... As opposed to a known fact ... My previous statements still stand ... That risk as of yet is NOT proven ... And policy makers, as I have said repeatedly, act conservatively in the face of the unknown just as you have identified it. If you are arguing otherwise, then again you are making a truly revolutionary proposal. Note that the FDA uses the same criteria about the unknown--proof of safety is required, not threat. The FDA's criteria appears to be perfectly applicable in this case. Your argument regarding the statement that there are outliers due to testing is circular ... You can no more PROVE one (testing did it) than you can the other (few make it there due to drug use) ... Yes, I have proven it by showing that 1) the well proven concept of the tragedy of the commons is applicable here and 2) that women's and weight throwers performances en masse declined when stricter testing was implemented. As I said, you need to counter these factual showings which are adequate proof. Richard McCann
t-and-f: Perceptions
The whole drug issue is still one which is based primarily on emotion and moral bases ... Data is thrown out in an attempt to support these assumptions ... But as you yourself lhave repeated stated these arguments are based on perceptions ... In most professions perceptions are hardly enough to get an idea off the drawing board ! Actually, in most professions, perceptions govern the majority of what happens even though people try to act like they don't. It strikes me that - whichever side of the argument one is on - this discussion proves that the track field list is no different (note that I certainly include myself among those governed by perceptions!) Now, how about Radcliffe's half - a great performance or simply a soft record (or both)? - Ed Parrot
Re: t-and-f: Latest on White
Maybe not the best choice of words, but given the context the quote was probably given in, it doesn't seem all that unreasonable. Consider that she's commenting on a pending investigation with fairly significant ramifications to her career. I imagine she's been advised by lawyers to not say anything one way or the other publicly. And with the way the IAAF dealt with the Jones/Francis situation over the winter, it wouldn't surprise me if they've handed down a gag order of some sort. Dan --- Martin J. Dixon [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: Some beauts in here but why not go with this one just for laughs and giggles: However, she backed off when asked directly if she has narcolepsy, a claim she made in Paris after the results of her drug test were announced. I don't want to answer that,'' she said. I'm trying to be vague with my answers. I don't want to get into that.'' http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/chronicle/archive/2003/09/22/SPG6G1RRUF1.DTL Regards, Martin = http://AbleDesign.com - Web Design Custom Programming http://Run-Down.com - 10,000 Running Links, Fantasy TF @o Dan Kaplan - [EMAIL PROTECTED] |\/ ^- ( [EMAIL PROTECTED] or [EMAIL PROTECTED] ) _/ \ \/\ (503)370-9969 phone/fax / / __ Do you Yahoo!? Yahoo! SiteBuilder - Free, easy-to-use web site design software http://sitebuilder.yahoo.com
Re: t-and-f: Latest on White
I'm trying to be vague with my answers. Obviously not well coached in speaking to the press. -- Lee Nichols Assistant News Editor The Austin Chronicle 512/454-5766, ext. 138 fax 512/458-6910 http://austinchronicle.com
Re: Re:Re: t-and-f: Drugs
Nothing revolutionary there ... You simply want YOUR morals to dictate which risks are worth taking ... And you choose to err on the conservative side of things vis a vis operating froma a standard of proof Nothing revolutionary about what I am saying ... As far as you assertion that the decline of women's and throwers marks with the disolution of the Eastern Bloc proves that testing works ... Please note that performances World wide dropped in those areas - among the drug takers and the non drug takers - if one is to believe that your testing was indeed working and infalable ... So again proving absolutely nothing ! - Original Message - From: Richard McCann [EMAIL PROTECTED] To: Conway Hill [EMAIL PROTECTED] Cc: TFMail List [EMAIL PROTECTED] Sent: Tuesday, September 23, 2003 12:45 PM Subject: Re: Re:Re: t-and-f: Drugs At 12:24 PM 9/23/2003 -0700, Conway Hill wrote: Potential identifies the unknown ... As opposed to a known fact ... My previous statements still stand ... That risk as of yet is NOT proven ... And policy makers, as I have said repeatedly, act conservatively in the face of the unknown just as you have identified it. If you are arguing otherwise, then again you are making a truly revolutionary proposal. Note that the FDA uses the same criteria about the unknown--proof of safety is required, not threat. The FDA's criteria appears to be perfectly applicable in this case. Your argument regarding the statement that there are outliers due to testing is circular ... You can no more PROVE one (testing did it) than you can the other (few make it there due to drug use) ... Yes, I have proven it by showing that 1) the well proven concept of the tragedy of the commons is applicable here and 2) that women's and weight throwers performances en masse declined when stricter testing was implemented. As I said, you need to counter these factual showings which are adequate proof. Richard McCann
Re: t-and-f: Drugs
destruction of the innocent as long as we can catch the occasional drug cheating criminal I may have missed the post which discussed this, but exactly how can we say for sure that a large number of those who are caught are innocent? Because they say so? Because they have narcolepsy? Because they had a wild evening involving beer and other activities? Because they drank some new energy drink or had colds? Does testing really only catch the occasional cheater, versus a rash of innocent bystanders? Or rather, is each person caught spinning a wild excuse in hopes of finding a loophole to escape the consequences of their nefarious actions? I'm not convinced that the statistics are as you insinuate. --JRM
Re: t-and-f: Drugs
I may have missed the post which discussed this, but exactly how can we say for sure that a large number of those who are caught are innocent? Because they say so? Because they have narcolepsy? Because they had a wild evening involving beer and other activities? Because they drank some new energy drink or had colds? Because merely saying so supports one's argument?
t-and-f: Re: Elite Coordinator for Chicago Marathon
Does anyone know who the elite athlete coordinator is for the Chicago Marathon? Thanks, -Geoff
t-and-f: Great American College Team preview by Mike Scott
Great American Cross Country Festival College Division Features Nationally Ranked Teams By Mike Scott Vice Chair/Secretary, USATF Cross Country Council Clubs Coordinator, Team USA Distance Running Coordinator, CanAm High Performance Distance Circuit [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://miscott.home.att.net/ WOMEN'S PREVIEW The 2003 Great American Collegiate Women's field includes eight teams that qualified for last year's NCAA Division 1 Cross Country Championships at Indiana State University in Terre Haute, including the two-time defending NCAA Champions, Brigham Young University. Headlining a stellar individual field will be North Carolina's Shalane Flanagan, the 2002 NCAA individual cross country champion. The top-ranked BYU Cougars will be looking for their 3rd consecutive and 5th overall NCAA harrier crown -- following national titles in 1997, 1999, 2001, 2002 -- on November 24th at the University of Northern Iowa. Michaela Mannova (5th at the 2002 NCAA cross country meet) and Kassi Andersen (7th), the 2002 and 2003 NCAA steeplechase champions respectively, return to lead BYU in its quest for a threepeat. Breanne Sandberg (41st) and Laura Turner (26th '99, 31st '98) return w/ NCAA experience, while Lisa Antonelli earned All-American honors in the steeplechase. Tenth-rated Northern Arizona finished top tenth at last year's collegiate championships. NCAA indoor mile champ Johanna Nilsson (12th) and her older sister Ida Nilsson (8th), a two-time NCAA runner-up, will lead Northern Arizona's Lumberjacks. Southeast regional foes North Carolina State (13th), Duke (17th), Virginia (20th), North Carolina (21st), and William Mary (23rd) are also in the field. 2002 NCAA 10k champ Kristin Price returns to lead NC State's 14th-ranked Wolfpack, which field a nice mixture of proven veterans and talented newcomers. In addition to Price, All-American Megan Coombs, Kristina Roth, Josi Lauber, Diana Henderson, Janelle Vadnais, Abigail Nelkie, and Julia Lucas all return with NCAA experience, while Foot Locker finalist Sara Powell and Lehigh transfer Lucinda Hull highlight the newcomers. Shannon Rowbury, Sally Meyerhoff, Laura Stanley, former Foot Locker finalist Natasha Roetter, and All-American Sheila Agrawal should lead the 16th-ranked Duke's Blue Devils, while Virginia's Jane Maxwell should be at the front of the Cavaliers' pack and All-American Ali Henderson will lead 24th-rated William Mary's Tribe. UNC's Shalane Flanagan, the 2002 NCAA Cross Country and 2003 NCAA 3000-meter indoor champion, won last year's Great American individual title en route to a undefeated harrier campaign. The ninth-ranked Tar Heels are expected to be greatly improved this fall, with 2002 NCAA steeplechase bronze medallist Carol Henry returning from an injury that had her miss the 2002 fall campaign and Foot Locker finalists Megan Kaltenbach and Meghan Owen joining a strong squad that also includes two-time NCAA 800 champion Alice Schmidt. Florida State also qualified for last fall's NCAA championships, finishing 28th. MEN'S PREVIEW The Great American Cross Country Festival is not just a great high school meet. Since 2000, it's become the place to race for many of the nation's top collegiate programs. Eight of the teams competing in the 2003 Great American men's collegiate fields qualified for last year's NCAA Division 1 Cross Country Championships at Indiana State University in Terre Haute, including three teams that finished in the top ten: seventh-place Northern Arizona University, eighth-place University of Michigan, and ninth-place Central Michigan University. At last year's Great American Festival, Henrik Ahnstrom and Nurani Sheihk (51st) finished one-two individually to lead the third-ranked Northern Arizona Lumberjacks to an impressive 26-point total; basically, the Lumberjacks would have outscored the best five runners combined from all of the other teams that comprised the Great American men's field! All-American Seth Watkins (18th) led Northern Arizona at last year's NCAA, with all seven members of the NCAA squad slated to return this year. All-Americans Nate Brannen and Nick Willis led the sixth-ranked Michigan Wolverines last fall, finishing 22nd and 28th respectively at the NCAA championships. Sub-4:00 minute milers Brannen and Willis lead all seven Michigan athletes back from the 2002 championships squad. Ninth-rated Central Michigan will be led by All-Americans Tristen Perlberg (35th) and Jake Flynn (39th). Perlberg and Flynn will be joined by 4 other returnees from the 2002 Mid-American Conference championship team. Villanova University and College of William Mary finished 12th and 14th at last year's NCAA championship. Jonathon Fasulo (52nd) and Ryan Haydon (125th) return to lead the 10th-ranked Villanova's Wildcats; they will be joined at the front by one of 2003's top prep milers Bobby Curtis. All American Ed Moran (30th), fifth in the NCAA outdoor 5000, returns from 18th-ranked William Mary's Tribe. Ohio State,
Re: t-and-f: Kenyan drug scandal
I was out of the country for six weeks this summer and missed the flurry of comments on this subject. I've now caught up, and I'd like to add a few comments of my own. First, I'm going to respond directly to remarks several list members made about what I've written in the past. Here are some examples: Randy Treadway, August 17: In years past, on this very list, any time questions were brought up about the Africans, people who had spent time with them dashed into the conversation like lightning to claim that cheating was simply against the nature and motivation of the Africans they'd spent time with. Where are those people now? The silence is deafening. John Molvar, August 19: There was always an angry, vicious outrage against anyone who dared to suggest the Kenyans would even consider using drugs. . . Anyone remember when John Manners told us all that the Kenyans were morally incapbable? Philip Ponebshek, August 19: For many years, there has been a STRONG assertion from those who work with African athletes that there is no drug use. That's not a statement of we don't know. It's a statement of we know - there is none. For example, quoting from a review of the TAFNews Press book Train Hard, Win Easy Jim Kornell writes: 'Two issues come up when talking about the Kenyans (and Ethiopians): drugs and genetics. As for drugs, John Manners writes a forceful preface about Kenyan drug use. His conclusion: there isn't any. This is highly credible. . .' There have been . . . countless defenses of East Africans mounted on the same premise to date - that Kenyans would never use drugs. Kurt Bray, September 7: For years and years, John Manners, James Templeton, and other insisted on this forum that, for a long tiresome list of reasons, it was absolutely IMPOSSIBLE for any Kenyan to be doping. Bob Kunnath, September 7: I dont think it was ever stated that it was IMPOSSIBLE for the Kenyans to cheat. Dan Kaplan, September 7: Yes, it most definitely was, and in very clear and passionate terms by those closely involved with top Kenyans. Search the list archives if you don't believe me. OK, Dan, I searched -- my own posts, anyway. And here's what I found: John Manners, October 24, 1997: Now, all of this is not to say that drug use by Africans is inconceivable. Frankly, the prospect worries me, because . . . I can imagine, given the temptation of so much money and the likely availability of, say, EPO from some doctor, that one of these days some second-class road runner is going to try to take a shortcut to the top. But I know of no evidence that it has happened yet. John Manners, August 24, 1998: This is not to suggest that no African will ever try the stuff. For all I know, some already have. But I follow this pretty closely, and I know of no credible evidence to that effect. John Manners, August 28, 1998: Of course even if this is so, it's no guarantee that some African, seeing marked improvement by Europeans rumored to be using EPO, might not want to try it. As for the review of Train Hard, Win Easy, I'm afraid the quoted passage oversimplifies my position. What I actually wrote (in December, 2000), in the middle of a long discussion of my reasons for disbelieving the common drug accusations, was: [This] explains why I think practically all the Kenyans are clean and will probably stay that way. It seems to me these statements don't quite rise to the level of knee-jerk dogmatism I've been accused of. And for what it's worth, I'm no longer prepared to talk about Africans, in general, when discussing accusations of drug use. I have no direct experience with North African athletes and have always been a little uneasy about lumping them together with East Africans, of whom I do have some first-hand knowledge. So I'll confine my comments to Kenyans. In any case, the misrepresentation of my position is hardly the central point here. It's the blanket accusations against the Kenyans that need to be examined. On August 16, John Molvar posted an article by Omulo Okoth that had appeared in the East African Standard on July 24, introducing it with this comment: This calls [into question] everything the Kenyans have done from Yobes Ondieki's 26:58 onward. Does it? Let's consider the article. It starts by announcing that Pamela Chepchumba, who tested positive for EPO in March, has chosen to remain silent and will be summoned as a witness by a Commission of Inquiry being set up by Athletics Kenya. [The Commission is now seeking subpoena power in the hope of forcing Chepchumba to open up.] Okoth then asserts that her account will certainly lead the Commission to unmask what is emerging as an infamy of monumental proportions. And what does Okoth adduce in support of this rather sweeping claim? The testimony of three or four unnamed athletes, presumably Kenyans, about the practices of two or three unnamed European agents. One of the athletes says an agent urged him
Re: t-and-f: naming sources
I was talking in generalities. It sounds like you're objecting to something specific, but I'm not sure what exactly. Who said anything about not being able to reveal names? You changed the situation there from won't to can't. Just because the source is anonymous, doesn't make something any more or less of a solid fact. Less reputable maybe, but not necessarily less factual. Dan --- Gerald Woodward [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: If you can't reveal the sources or give facts don't name names until you can produce solid facts. Then we eliminate all the other rumors, innuendos and garbage. Athletes and others can then maintain their good name and reputation unless and until something factual is proven. = http://AbleDesign.com - Web Design Custom Programming http://Run-Down.com - 10,000 Running Links, Fantasy TF @o Dan Kaplan - [EMAIL PROTECTED] |\/ ^- ( [EMAIL PROTECTED] or [EMAIL PROTECTED] ) _/ \ \/\ (503)370-9969 phone/fax / / __ Do you Yahoo!? Yahoo! SiteBuilder - Free, easy-to-use web site design software http://sitebuilder.yahoo.com
Re: t-and-f: Drugs
On Tue, 23 Sep 2003, Steve Shea wrote: ... However more innocent people have been caught than actual cheaters ... Ruining the careers of many in the process ... Wish to elaborate on this one? Name the innocent vs. the guilty unless beer and sex or spiked toothpaste is a viable explanation for the true innocent. Well, look at it this way: Ben Johnson was caught, and he's guilty. But, everyone else who has been caught since is innocent. Thus, the ratio of guilty to innocent must be 1 : (everyone - 1). --JRM
