Re: [Vo]:There is no tomorrow Video
Assuming no commercial LENR: Frakking does buy us a lot of time, probably well over 100 years. Trucks, Planes, Trains and Ships could all switch to natural gas for fuel, and even cars will swap over if oil gets too expensive. We can also make liquid fuels out of natural gas (GTL), at current gas prices (and likely future) it is profitable when oil is $50/barrel http://www.worldenergysource.com/articles/pdf/economides_WE_v8n1.pdf . Because frakking has dropped the price of natural gas so much even as oil has stayed high it is likely GTL will ramp up very fast in the next decade, there is now about 20 barrels per day global capacity (0.25% of global demand). I believe the fusion power corporation HIF presentation was done in 2010, and it does seem the technological problems to be solved are simpler than ITER or NIF: -low firing rates (0.5Hz) per chamber -only 2 ion beams per chamber (from a single source) with no fragile optics to protect and far lower accuracy requirements than laser ICF -liquid lithium jets/waterfalls that intercept the neutrons and EM impulse to prevent damage to the chamber walls and reduce neutron activation issues that are a huge problem for tokomaks -simple in-built tritium breeding from neutron capture in the lithium jets -high efficiency and well understood technology linear accelerators and beam conditioning (as adapted from other particle accelerators) I really like that a single heavy ion accelerator can run 20 reaction chambers, and that those reaction chambers can be swapped out, experimented with and rapidly developed in competition with each other without shutting down the whole plant. But there are also many other smaller scale hot fusion concepts that all have at least some chance of paying out economically/commercially within the next 30 years (as opposed to ITER/DEMO and NIF that in my opinion have none). It would be nice to see them all funded to the $50-100 million level for a few years to see if one or more of them looks promising enough to carry on with 1/ Field Reversed Configuration - eg Helion Energy, Tri Alpha 2/ Electrostatic Confinement - eg Polywell/EMC2 3/ Magnetised Target Fusion - eg General Fusion 4/ Levitated Dipole - eg MIT LDX 5/ Focus fusion - LPPX In particular Helion and Tri-Alpha would be pretty awesome if they worked out as they could also be adapted for efficient fusion propulsion in space, and might also work in large aircraft, perhaps Polywell and Focus Fusion also fit that criteria. On 2 April 2012 03:35, David Roberson dlrober...@aol.com wrote: Heavy ion fusion is an interesting technology but I suspect that it is not as simple to put on line as the speaker in the video suggests. There appears to be many difficult engineering challenges to solve and they take time. Does anyone know of an actual working system that has been constructed since the 2004(?) filming of this presentation? Also, the natural gas available due to fracking far exceeds the quantity suggested by the speaker but I realize that he had no way of knowing that this resource would come into being. Dave -Original Message- From: Robert Lynn robert.gulliver.l...@gmail.com To: vortex-l vortex-l@eskimo.com Sent: Sun, Apr 1, 2012 8:08 am Subject: Re: [Vo]:There is no tomorrow Video Very well presented. The first half should be looked at by all politicians responsible for implementing the long term plans required to maintain our standard of living. But I disagree with the ultimate conclusions. All the problems presented including mineral, and water shortages (possible exception of overfishing) are solvable with other energy sources. Even ignoring LENR I am quite sure that we have access to all of the energy that humanity needs from alternative sources like solar, nuclear, wind at a price not far above today's very low prices. But even without viable LENR there is a technology available that could manufacture oil and electricity from inexhaustible sources for a price about half of current oil and electricity. Not many people have heard of it but Heavy Ion Fusion would be a total solution: http://www.fusionpowercorporation.com/corporation 1 hour long presentation: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2emKoMgZ03U In summary Heavy Ion Fusion uses a huge linear accelerator driver to fuse lead coated D-T targets, and is expected to cost about $20Billion for 100GW output (no sense in building smaller owing to ignition energy requirements). That is many times cheaper than nuclear and avoiding all the problems of nuclear power. HIF creates energy at high temp that can be used to create hydrogen in sulphur iodine cycle, that can then be combined with CO2 from the atmosphere to create hydrocarbons at about $50/barrel equivalent. Waste heat from hydrogen production can then make electricity and waste heat from electricity production can then do huge-scale desalination. A few hundred of these plants dotted around the world
Re: [Vo]:There is no tomorrow Video
It would be nice to see them all funded to the $50-100 million level for a few years to see if one or more of them looks promising enough to carry on with 1/ Field Reversed Configuration - eg Helion Energy, Tri Alpha 2/ Electrostatic Confinement - eg Polywell/EMC2 3/ Magnetised Target Fusion - eg General Fusion 4/ Levitated Dipole - eg MIT LDX 5/ Focus fusion - LPPX I won't argue that large investments in research aren't needed in order to improve the world's energy security over the long run. But I'm beginning to think the large numbers you see in connection with some projects are evidence of something in the system that's failing. Does it make sense to invest 3.4 billion dollars to create the National Ignition Facility in order to carry out basic fusion research? Maybe. Maybe, though, restrictions on funding are actually a blessing. Assuming LENR will be recognized and commercialized at some point in the medium term, I think the relative cost of the two research programs will present an object lesson in what can be done on a tight budget. It doesn't seem like starving projects of funding is a good way to go; it just seems like the grand-project approach may not be all that efficient a way to advance science, either. Eric
Re: [Vo]:There is no tomorrow Video
The National Ignition Facility is only one of a number of projects used by the DOD to ensure that their H bombs explode when they want them to. Fusion research is just a PR thing. On Mon, Apr 2, 2012 at 11:16 PM, Eric Walker eric.wal...@gmail.com wrote: It would be nice to see them all funded to the $50-100 million level for a few years to see if one or more of them looks promising enough to carry on with 1/ Field Reversed Configuration - eg Helion Energy, Tri Alpha 2/ Electrostatic Confinement - eg Polywell/EMC2 3/ Magnetised Target Fusion - eg General Fusion 4/ Levitated Dipole - eg MIT LDX 5/ Focus fusion - LPPX I won't argue that large investments in research aren't needed in order to improve the world's energy security over the long run. But I'm beginning to think the large numbers you see in connection with some projects are evidence of something in the system that's failing. Does it make sense to invest 3.4 billion dollars to create the National Ignition Facility in order to carry out basic fusion research? Maybe. Maybe, though, restrictions on funding are actually a blessing. Assuming LENR will be recognized and commercialized at some point in the medium term, I think the relative cost of the two research programs will present an object lesson in what can be done on a tight budget. It doesn't seem like starving projects of funding is a good way to go; it just seems like the grand-project approach may not be all that efficient a way to advance science, either. Eric
Re: [Vo]:There is no tomorrow Video
Very well presented. The first half should be looked at by all politicians responsible for implementing the long term plans required to maintain our standard of living. But I disagree with the ultimate conclusions. All the problems presented including mineral, and water shortages (possible exception of overfishing) are solvable with other energy sources. Even ignoring LENR I am quite sure that we have access to all of the energy that humanity needs from alternative sources like solar, nuclear, wind at a price not far above today's very low prices. But even without viable LENR there is a technology available that could manufacture oil and electricity from inexhaustible sources for a price about half of current oil and electricity. Not many people have heard of it but Heavy Ion Fusion would be a total solution: http://www.fusionpowercorporation.com/corporation 1 hour long presentation: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2emKoMgZ03U In summary Heavy Ion Fusion uses a huge linear accelerator driver to fuse lead coated D-T targets, and is expected to cost about $20Billion for 100GW output (no sense in building smaller owing to ignition energy requirements). That is many times cheaper than nuclear and avoiding all the problems of nuclear power. HIF creates energy at high temp that can be used to create hydrogen in sulphur iodine cycle, that can then be combined with CO2 from the atmosphere to create hydrocarbons at about $50/barrel equivalent. Waste heat from hydrogen production can then make electricity and waste heat from electricity production can then do huge-scale desalination. A few hundred of these plants dotted around the world would provide for all of humanities future energy and water needs, and the technology does not require any breakthroughs - it could be built within 10 years using mostly 1970's technology - it is for example much simpler and more easily implemented technology than what NIF or ITER requires. And it is very compatible with existing infrastructure. The problem is that it requires the political will to spend $20-30 billion over 10 years to get it working - actually similar cost to ITER or about 2-3% of cost of the 'war on terror' http://costofwar.com/en/ but it would be a much cheaper way of ensuring access to oil than middle eastern intervention has been. On 1 April 2012 01:49, David Roberson dlrober...@aol.com wrote: They paint a pretty gloomy picture. The unknown future has always appeared limited, but somehow we seem to get through it and I think LENR will come to the rescue this time. Dave -Original Message- From: Patrick Ellul ellulpatr...@gmail.com To: vortex-l vortex-l@eskimo.com Sent: Sat, Mar 31, 2012 8:05 pm Subject: [Vo]:There is no tomorrow Video Most of you might have already come across this, but here it goes: About the future of energy: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VOMWzjrRiBgfeature=share How much of the figures are for real? What about the gloomy conclusion? Regards, -- Patrick www.tRacePerfect.com The daily puzzle everyone can finish but not everyone can perfect! The quickest puzzle ever!
Re: [Vo]:There is no tomorrow Video
Heavy ion fusion is an interesting technology but I suspect that it is not as simple to put on line as the speaker in the video suggests. There appears to be many difficult engineering challenges to solve and they take time. Does anyone know of an actual working system that has been constructed since the 2004(?) filming of this presentation? Also, the natural gas available due to fracking far exceeds the quantity suggested by the speaker but I realize that he had no way of knowing that this resource would come into being. Dave -Original Message- From: Robert Lynn robert.gulliver.l...@gmail.com To: vortex-l vortex-l@eskimo.com Sent: Sun, Apr 1, 2012 8:08 am Subject: Re: [Vo]:There is no tomorrow Video Very well presented. The first half should be looked at by all oliticians responsible for implementing the long term plans required o maintain our standard of living. But I disagree with the ultimate onclusions. All the problems presented including mineral, and water hortages (possible exception of overfishing) are solvable with other nergy sources. Even ignoring LENR I am quite sure that we have ccess to all of the energy that humanity needs from alternative ources like solar, nuclear, wind at a price not far above today's ery low prices. But even without viable LENR there is a technology available that ould manufacture oil and electricity from inexhaustible sources for a rice about half of current oil and electricity. Not many people have eard of it but Heavy Ion Fusion would be a total solution: ttp://www.fusionpowercorporation.com/corporation hour long presentation: ttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2emKoMgZ03U In summary Heavy Ion Fusion uses a huge linear accelerator driver to use lead coated D-T targets, and is expected to cost about $20Billion or 100GW output (no sense in building smaller owing to ignition nergy requirements). That is many times cheaper than nuclear and voiding all the problems of nuclear power. HIF creates energy at igh temp that can be used to create hydrogen in sulphur iodine cycle, hat can then be combined with CO2 from the atmosphere to create ydrocarbons at about $50/barrel equivalent. Waste heat from hydrogen roduction can then make electricity and waste heat from electricity roduction can then do huge-scale desalination. A few hundred of these plants dotted around the world would provide or all of humanities future energy and water needs, and the echnology does not require any breakthroughs - it could be built ithin 10 years using mostly 1970's technology - it is for example uch simpler and more easily implemented technology than what NIF or TER requires. And it is very compatible with existing nfrastructure. The problem is that it requires the political will to spend $20-30 illion over 10 years to get it working - actually similar cost to TER or about 2-3% of cost of the 'war on terror' ttp://costofwar.com/en/ but it would be a much cheaper way of nsuring access to oil than middle eastern intervention has been. n 1 April 2012 01:49, David Roberson dlrober...@aol.com wrote: They paint a pretty gloomy picture. The unknown future has always appeared limited, but somehow we seem to get through it and I think LENR will come to the rescue this time. Dave -Original Message- From: Patrick Ellul ellulpatr...@gmail.com To: vortex-l vortex-l@eskimo.com Sent: Sat, Mar 31, 2012 8:05 pm Subject: [Vo]:There is no tomorrow Video Most of you might have already come across this, but here it goes: About the future of energy: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VOMWzjrRiBgfeature=share How much of the figures are for real? What about the gloomy conclusion? Regards, -- Patrick www.tRacePerfect.com The daily puzzle everyone can finish but not everyone can perfect! The quickest puzzle ever!
Re: [Vo]:There is no tomorrow Video
They paint a pretty gloomy picture. The unknown future has always appeared limited, but somehow we seem to get through it and I think LENR will come to the rescue this time. Dave -Original Message- From: Patrick Ellul ellulpatr...@gmail.com To: vortex-l vortex-l@eskimo.com Sent: Sat, Mar 31, 2012 8:05 pm Subject: [Vo]:There is no tomorrow Video Most of you might have already come across this, but here it goes: About the future of energy: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VOMWzjrRiBgfeature=share How much of the figures are for real? What about the gloomy conclusion? Regards, -- Patrick www.tRacePerfect.com The daily puzzle everyone can finish but not everyone can perfect! The quickest puzzle ever!
