list changes

As I announced earlier, the GMU listserv system is changing. Starting August 15th, [EMAIL PROTECTED] will be renamed: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Yes, I know the longer name sucks, but what can you do? -- Prof. Bryan Caplan Department of Economics George Mason

Joel Stein column

burban age. And yet, I've never been so happy to give that up for a sausage baguette with watermelon barbecue sauce. If I wanted to rub elbows with the great unwashed, I'd eat at the Olive Garden. So I've become an ArcLight member. I hope I don't see you there. (Posted:04/25/0

Re: Greider

n. Sure, errors in one area raise the probability of errors in other areas. But he's a journalist. I expect him to be weak on analytics. The 5 W's of who-what-when-where-why are what he's trained to get right. --Robert Book -- Prof. Bryan Caplan

Greider

nt countless foolish policies. Greider also has interesting material on the Democrats' connection to the S&L industry. I'd never heard about any of this, but he seems to have his facts straight on this point. Wrong hasn't been so much fun in years! --

expect a change

. I'll get you apprised on a need-to-know basis. -- Prof. Bryan Caplan Department of Economics George Mason University http://www.bcaplan.com [EMAIL PROTECTED] "Infancy conforms to nobody: all conform to it, so that one babe co

Russia Needs More Inequality

quot; but "riches for the most productive" or perhaps "better inequality." -- Prof. Bryan Caplan Department of Economics George Mason University http://www.bcaplan.com [EMAIL PROTECTED] "Infancy conforms to nobody: all

The Availability Heuristic and Demand

. -- Prof. Bryan Caplan Department of Economics George Mason University http://www.bcaplan.com [EMAIL PROTECTED] "Infancy conforms to nobody: all conform to it, so that one babe commonly makes four or five out of the adults who prattle and play

[Fwd: A story of the Fed in Wonderland as Greenspan puts emphasis ongr owth - Economic View by Anatole Kaletsky]

If you have received this > communication in error, please notify the sender and/or Citadel Investment > Group (Europe) Ltd immediately by telephone at +44 (0) 20 7645 9700 and > destroy any copy of this transmission. > > Citadel Investment Group (Europe) Ltd is authorised and regu

Re: Kolko 40 Years Later

ts you are going to put a "interventionism is a plot by corporate interests to advance its material interests" spin on it. -- Prof. Bryan Caplan Department of Economics George Mason University http://www.bcaplan.com [EMAIL PROTECTED]

Kolko 40 Years Later

reat stuff that I strongly suspect is accurate, like his revisionist account of the hysteria surrounding Upton Sinclair's *The Jungle*. But overall, it has all of the flaws you would expect in a work of economic history by an economically semi-literate socialist. --

correction

Of course I meant to say that labor supply elasticity is near-zero, not near-infinte. Thanks to Alex for pointing it out. -- Prof. Bryan Caplan Department of Economics George Mason University http://www.bcaplan.com [EMAIL PROTECTED

Re: Wage-Price Controls Under Nixon

says they pay 0% or 100%). -- Prof. Bryan Caplan Department of Economics George Mason University http://www.bcaplan.com [EMAIL PROTECTED] "The game of just supposing Is the sweetest game I know... An

Re: Health insurance for kids

an this be rational? At least for male employees, it's plausible that those with more children are both older and therefore more experienced, and more responsible/stable holding age constant. A guy with five kids is going to be very concerned about remaining employed. > -Jeffrey R

Re: Charity

would get the opposite result if the question were "Should we spend more, less, or about the same to help poor American children?" Or the American elderly poor. Or the American handicapped. Alex -- Prof. Bryan Caplan Department of Economics Ge

Re: Charity

Jason DeBacker wrote: And the answer is: - People really don’t care about helping someone else, but are ashamed to admit that. How could it be anything else? -- Prof. Bryan Caplan Department of Economics George Mason University http://www.bcaplan.com

Re: The Vote-Cost of Scandal

l in good standing, but he is the textbook case of a politician ruined by a scandal. Clinton is probably a bigger hypocrite given his effort to co-opt the family values stuff. -- Prof. Bryan Caplan Department of Economics George Mason University

The Vote-Cost of Scandal

ning about this regime change. -- Prof. Bryan Caplan Department of Economics George Mason University http://www.bcaplan.com [EMAIL PROTECTED] "The game of just supposing Is the sweetest game I know...

Re: Personal vs. Political Culture: The Other Box

fabio guillermo rojas wrote: >> Now Pete Boettke asked me if there are any peoples with the >> opposite combination: bad personal culture, good political culture. >> The best Prof. Bryan Caplan > > > Note that insistence on free markets, limited gov't, demo

Personal vs. Political Culture: The Other Box

olism and the like. Has anyone got better examples? -- Prof. Bryan Caplan Department of Economics George Mason University http://www.bcaplan.com [EMAIL PROTECTED] "It is a talent of the weak to persuade themselves that they suffer for somethi

Re: Cost benefit analysis

't go through the whole textbook discussion (unless the students were largely going to grad school), but I think the point is worth half a class. -- Prof. Bryan Caplan Department of Economics George Mason University http://www.b

Re: trend grading policies

were criticized so harshly. This is a good point. But it can be handled by giving the midterm less weight to begin with. You have an argument for giving a midterm a lower weight, but not a variable weight. And I do give the midterm lower weight. -- Prof. Bryan Caplan

Re: Bubblemania

bubble is being over-stated, and the importance of standard unforeseeable random shocks understated. -- Prof. Bryan Caplan Department of Economics George Mason University http://www.bcaplan.com [EMAIL PROTECTED] "He wrote

Re: Bubblemania

t all, or even 50%. And your graph is of the Nasdaq rather than the broad market, and shows absolute levels rather than percent changes. -- Prof. Bryan Caplan Department of Economics George Mason University http://www.bcaplan.com [E

Re: Bubblemania

their probabilities. -- Prof. Bryan Caplan Department of Economics George Mason University http://www.bcaplan.com [EMAIL PROTECTED] "He wrote a letter, but did not post it because he felt that no one would have understood wh

Re: News Coverage and bad economics

Please take these discussions of personalities off-list. Thanks! -- Prof. Bryan Caplan Department of Economics George Mason University http://www.bcaplan.com [EMAIL PROTECTED] "He wrote a letter, but did not post it becau

Off Topic

I won't be replying to anyone for a while, because my twin boys were born on Saturday! For the whole story, go to: http://www.gmu.edu/departments/economics/bcaplan/caplantwins.htm -- Prof. Bryan Caplan Department of Economics George

Re: EU

University of Ireland, Cork > Cork, Ireland > > +353-21-490-2091 (work) > +353-21-427-3920 (fax) > +353-21-463-4056 (home) > [EMAIL PROTECTED] > [EMAIL PROTECTED] > www.ucc.ie/~sjostrom/ > > - Original Message - > From: "Bryan Caplan" <[EMAIL PRO

Re: Self-assesment vs. Rationality

Are they irrational or not? > > ... essentially the beliefs that are false > > not from lack of data, but because the available data has been > > improperly processed. > > What does "improperly processed" mean? Failing to follow Bayesian

EU

P(.). My bare bones theory says: 1. P(1>2) increases in p. 2. P(1>2) decreases in q. 3. P(1>2) increases in X. 4. P(1>2) decreases in Y. and nothing more specific. Is this inconsistent with any experimental evidence? -- Prof. Bryan Caplan

Re: Self-assessment vs. Rationality

rational expectations for a primer: > http://www.econlib.org/library/Enc/RationalExpectations.html > > Eric Crampton -- Prof. Bryan Caplan Department of Economics George Mason University http://www.bcaplan.com [EMAIL PROTECTED]

Re: Self-assesment vs. Rationality

body has "rational expectations." This is pure caricature. RE does not say that people are perfect or omniscient. It just says that they are right on average, that their over-estimates balance out their under-estimates. RE is often empirically false, but not in the trivi

Re: Self-assesment vs. Rationality

rom lack of data, but because the available data has been improperly processed. -- Prof. Bryan Caplan Department of Economics George Mason University http://www.bcaplan.com [EMAIL PROTECTED] "He wrote a letter, but did not post it be

Re: Return to Education and IV

erhaps I'm making Bill sound a little too much like me! -- Prof. Bryan Caplan Department of Economics George Mason University http://www.bcaplan.com [EMAIL PROTECTED] "He wrote a letter, but did not post it because he felt

Re: Return to Education and IV

#x27;s unclear how much labor economists' cheerleading has actually influenced policy. But I do think it's clear that the real social return to education has been pushed down to less than 1% by our current system of subsidies. What a waste of time and money. --

Re: Return to Education and IV

o to college, you're going to have to pay for roughly 1% more research. -- Prof. Bryan Caplan Department of Economics George Mason University http://www.bcaplan.com [EMAIL PROTECTED] "He wrote a letter, but did not post it

Re: Return to Education and IV

e Brookings Institution > 1775 Massachusetts Avenue, NW > Washington, DC 20036 > Phone: (202) 797-6113 > FAX: (202) 797-6181 > E-MAIL: [EMAIL PROTECTED] > AOL IM: wtdickens -- Prof. Bryan Caplan Department of Economics George Maso

Re: Return to Education and IV

g it even more likely that the social return is quite low. -- Prof. Bryan Caplan Department of Economics George Mason University http://www.bcaplan.com [EMAIL PROTECTED] "He wrote a letter, but did not post it because he felt

Re: Return to Education and IV

o parrot old cliches about fishing. Incidentally, most of your arguments (here and later in this discussion) suggest that people over-estimate the return to education. Is that your real view? -- Prof. Bryan Caplan Department of Economics George Mason University

Re: Return to Education and IV

doesn't show up in the data? > > > > Alex > > > > -- > > Alexander Tabarrok > > Department of Economics, MSN 1D3 > > George Mason University > > Fairfax, VA, 22030 > > Tel. 703-993-2314 > > > > and > > > > Direct

Re: Return to Education and IV

> doesn't show up in the data? > > Alex > > -- > Alexander Tabarrok > Department of Economics, MSN 1D3 > George Mason University > Fairfax, VA, 22030 > Tel. 703-993-2314 > > and > > Director of Research > The Independent Institute > 100 Swan Wa

Re: Return to Education and IV

name of the book was The Unheavenly City. He was influential early > on in the Nixon administration. > > Rodney Weiher > > Bryan Caplan wrote: > > > William Dickens wrote: > > > > > > As I remember the standard neo-classical answer to this is that the main &

Re: Return to Education and IV

are more likely to > voluntarily seek treatment. But with education, you would expect > endogeneity to overstate the benefit, because able people are more > likely to voluntarily enroll. > -- > Prof. Bryan Caplan >Department of Economics George

Return to Education and IV

nroll. -- Prof. Bryan Caplan Department of Economics George Mason University http://www.bcaplan.com [EMAIL PROTECTED] "He wrote a letter, but did not post it because he felt that no one would have understood what he wanted to say, and besides

Unions and Bankruptcy

I didn't know the answer to this. Does anyone else? -- Prof. Bryan Caplan Department of Economics George Mason University http://www.bcaplan.com [EMAIL PROTECTED] "He wrote a letter, but did not post it because he fe

Re: Nobels

Princeton econ really has 0. Kahneman is in the psych department, and Nash is a "senior research mathematician." -- Prof. Bryan Caplan Department of Economics George Mason University http://www.bcaplan.com [EMAIL PROTECT

Webpage Update

Shameless self-promotion: I've updated my Academic Economics webpage to include my new paper with Scott Beaulier, "Behavioral Economics and Perverse Effects of the Welfare State." Check it out at: http://www.gmu.edu/departments/economics/bcaplan/econ.html --

shameless self-promotion

Prof. Bryan Caplan Department of Economics George Mason University http://www.bcaplan.com [EMAIL PROTECTED] "He wrote a letter, but did not post it because he felt that no one would have understood what he wanted to say, and be

Re: Why does tenure exist?

n excel. If they tried to improve faculty incentives, they would suffer a lot of headaches without getting a big raise. Government subsidies and private charity give universities the cushion they need to avoid being put out of competition by performance-oriented for-profits. --

[Fwd: FW: SLOGAN SHORTAGE SHOCKER]

This is too funny not to share. -- Prof. Bryan Caplan Department of Economics George Mason University http://www.bcaplan.com [EMAIL PROTECTED] "He wrote a letter, but did not post it because he felt that no one would

[Fwd: how to eliminate unemployement]

Same basic result as you have today, but highly inconvenient if you need to get a $50,000 loan just to sleep overnight somewhere. -- Prof. Bryan Caplan Department of Economics George Mason University http://www.bcaplan.com [EMAIL PROT

Re: Median Voter and Sampling

ction too. And one factor that might influence future voters is responsiveness to current voters. Both of these factors mitigate the effect of lags. I'll grant that some lag remains, but no one has convinced me its a big effect. As for the idiocyncracies, I admit they exist. But they are m

Re: Median Voter and Sampling

Bryan Caplan wrote: > Elasticity and stickiness are different concepts. I should have said "*Low* elasticity and stickiness are different concepts." -- Prof. Bryan Caplan Department of Economics George Mason University

Re: Median Voter and Sampling

hat under $1 B is spent on campaign contributions, suggesting that special interests haven't been able to buy much of value. Of course, if the median voter is *indifferent* on an issue, all observed policies satisfy the MVT. > So my beef isn't the MVT per se, but the knee jerk use of i

Re: how to eliminate unemployement

r remarks about slum occupants taking over their buildings, etc? , it would > be possible to recoup the value of improvements. The only difference would > be, that one could not fence off land he was not occupying or using himself, > and charge others for access to it. > > >F

Re: Median Voter and Sampling

voter, the MVT doesn't actually predict that the median general voter gets his way? Or what? -- Prof. Bryan Caplan Department of Economics George Mason University http://www.bcaplan.com [EMAIL PROTECTED] "He wrote a let

Re: Median Voter vs. The Sub-optimal Equilibria

anism is > > going to help. > > Prof. Bryan Caplan > > If someone states a value of $10 not because he wants the health care > spending but because he enjoys stating that value, then it seems to me that > the person is willing to pay that amount even if for that odd reason

Re: how to eliminate unemployement

locate? A nice way to eliminate "unearned benefits" is to eliminate the existence of benefits. -- Prof. Bryan Caplan Department of Economics George Mason University http://www.bcaplan.com [EMAIL PROTECTED] "He

Inter-racial Adoption

could that really flip 80% for to 51% against? Highly implausible. -- Prof. Bryan Caplan Department of Economics George Mason University http://www.bcaplan.com [EMAIL PROTECTED] "He wrote a letter, but did not post it becau

Interesting Survey

g and other things that "get in your personal space." It's not the dollar value of the issue so much as its immediacy and intrusiveness. -- Prof. Bryan Caplan Department of Economics George Mason University http://www.bca

Re: Median Voter vs. The Sub-optimal Equilibria

7;t see how any demand revelation mechanism is going to help. -- Prof. Bryan Caplan Department of Economics George Mason University http://www.bcaplan.com [EMAIL PROTECTED] "He wrote a letter, but did not post it because he felt that no

Re: Median Voter and Sampling

ises. Bush senior lost after breaking his "no new taxes" pledge, but it was not a foregone conclusion. > > Fabio -- Prof. Bryan Caplan Department of Economics George Mason University http://www.bcaplan.com [EMAIL P

Re: Median Voter vs. The Sub-optimal Equilibria

a special case of the MV. The only twist is that the median voter implicitly says "My preference is whatever his preference is, within some limits." -- Prof. Bryan Caplan Department of Economics George Mason University

Re: Environmental and economic effects of Speed Limits

organization (or to make them change > their policy), it's still going strong I suppose they don't pay the higher insurance premiums - probably 80-90% of the full amount you pay for a traffic offense. -- Prof. Bryan Caplan Department

Re: how to eliminate unemployement

ntarized. A purely privatized world would be much closer to Georgism > than today's world. Indeed, the most feasible reform towards Georgism is the > privatization of civic governance. Presumably you do not disagree with the > central aim of Georgism, free trade.

Re: Savings Rates

;time of the article) extremely high. They conclude that savings rates were extremely high? -- Prof. Bryan Caplan Department of Economics George Mason University http://www.bcaplan.com [EMAIL PROTECTED] "He wrote a letter, bu

Reading recommendation

wledge. I found the same pattern for economics in my JLE piece. Kraus, Malmfors, and Slovic get an identical result for toxicology - the well-educated and males "think more like toxicologists." -- Prof. Bryan Caplan Department of Economic

Re: farm subsidies/amtrak

ou get out of a meeting early, you don't have an option," he said. -- Prof. Bryan Caplan Department of Economics George Mason University http://www.bcaplan.com [EMAIL PROTECTED] "He wrote a letter, but did not post it because he felt tha

Re: Savings Rates

the chance to ask have told me that official numbers don't count stock purchases, capital gains, etc. But maybe I'm just confused. If anyone knows better... -- Prof. Bryan Caplan Department of Economics George Mason University

Re: Public Opinion On Spending

l Security Income (SSI), the federal cash assistance program for the aged, blind, and disabled, as welfare. SSI spending for FY 1993 was $21 billion. For more info, go to: http://www.kff.org/content/archive/1001/welftbl.html -- Prof. Bryan Caplan

Re: Public Opinion On Spending

> they exist, they become popular? This is highly plausible to me. I would certainly expect initial support to be lower, leading to initially smaller programs. Once the programs exist, people come to want larger programs, and politicians respond accordingly. -- P

Re: Public support for farm subsidies

Bryan Caplan wrote: > You can check your public opinion guesses about various kinds > of spending at: > > http://www.icpsr.umich.edu/GSS/ > > Click "S" for spending. But first click "Subject" on the left-hand menu! Sorry. --

Public Opinion On Spending

he two biggest categories. -- Prof. Bryan Caplan Department of Economics George Mason University http://www.bcaplan.com [EMAIL PROTECTED] "He wrote a letter, but did not post it because he felt that no one would have understood what he wanted

Re: Public support for farm subsidies

bout various kinds of spending at: http://www.icpsr.umich.edu/GSS/ Click "S" for spending. -- Prof. Bryan Caplan Department of Economics George Mason University http://www.bcaplan.com [EMAIL PROTECTED] "He wrote a

Re: Silent Takeover

Kevin Carson wrote: > > >From: Bryan Caplan <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> > > > >First, the roads and airports are already here, so there would not be > >much of a decentralizing effect of cutting off subsidies and eminent > >domain now. > > But because of the

[Fwd: availability]

I've previously given Kuran and Sunstein's Stanford Law Review piece on "available cascades" an enthusiastic recommendation. If you remember the idea, you'll like the attached joke. -- Prof. Bryan Caplan Department of Ec

The Public Believes in Mean Reversion

A kind of funny result from Excite's informal poll: 48% surveyed think that the Dow will rise over the next month, vs. 32% who think it will fall. http://poll.excite.com/poll/results.jsp?cat_id=1 -- Prof. Bryan Caplan Department of Econ

Re: median voter and financial scandal

supermajority wants more regulations, they will happen. Of course, once again there is little reason to think outcomes will improve. But the median voter will get the new policies they want. -- Prof. Bryan Caplan Department of Economics George Mason

Re: Republican Reversal

; > >Fred Foldvary > > > >= > >[EMAIL PROTECTED] > > > >__ > >Do You Yahoo!? > >Yahoo! Autos - Get free new car price quotes > >http://autos.yahoo.com > > __

Re: Silent Takeover

are other > >government policies discouraging cross-national integration. > >Protectionism, most obviously, tends to preserve the firms in each > >nation that aren't efficient enough to compete with the world's market > >leaders. > > > >You're ri

Re: from whence, belief? Better society comparisons

I think this topic is getting too far afield for armchair. Take it off the list, if you please. :-) -- Prof. Bryan Caplan Department of Economics George Mason University http://www.bcaplan.com [EMAIL PROTECTED] "He wr

take-in/eat out

an do the work of thousands of local stores. -- Prof. Bryan Caplan Department of Economics George Mason University http://www.bcaplan.com [EMAIL PROTECTED] "He wrote a letter, but did not post it because he felt that no one

Re: Silent Takeover

Seinfeld, "Not that there's anything wrong with that." -- Prof. Bryan Caplan Department of Economics George Mason University http://www.bcaplan.com [EMAIL PROTECTED] "He wrote a letter, but did not post it because he felt

Re: Index mutual funds

ion would you get from (a) standard stock-picking and active trading, (b) managed mutual funds, (c) index funds, and (d) buy and hold with discount brokers? I would still guess that (c) closes 90% of the distance between (a) and (d), but I'd like to hear your guess

Re: Why do people pick stocks?

rence in performance between >holding yourself and holding in the lowest cost mutual fund is a lot more than .2% >per year. > - - Bill Dickens -- Prof. Bryan Caplan Department of Economics George Mason University http://www.bc

Re: Autism, brain damage and cooperation

n ability than adults in numerous respects. -- Prof. Bryan Caplan Department of Economics George Mason University http://www.bcaplan.com [EMAIL PROTECTED] "He wrote a letter, but did not post it because he felt that no one

Re: children and cooperation

any adults do. > This could help explain why kids might disrespect > other kids, but might be polite in front of adults (in addition to being > taught "manners"). > > Jason -- Prof. Bryan Caplan Department of Economics Geo

Re: children and cooperation

> Asa > > -- > These are the times that try men's souls. > -- Thomas Paine, The Crisis -- Prof. Bryan Caplan Department of Economics George Mason University http://www.bcaplan.com [EMAIL PROTECTED] "He wrot

Re: children and cooperation

spoken rules of personal interaction > are learned in this fashion (misbehavior-punishment cycles). So this is basically my "time to learn" story, I guess? > Fabio -- Prof. Bryan Caplan Department of Economics George M

children and cooperation

nation equilibria. Notice how drastically the 12th-grade high school culture differs from the 1st-year college culture. Other ideas? -- Prof. Bryan Caplan Department of Economics George Mason University http://www.bcaplan.com [E

Re: double vs. single entry

e is more error because you > mistakenly count a debit as a credit. The advantage is huge > when you have to do things by hand. It also helps you track errors > more quickly. What's wrong with negative numbers?! -- Prof. Bryan Caplan Depart

double vs. single entry

What exactly is the advantage of double-entry accounting over single-entry accounting? -- Prof. Bryan Caplan Department of Economics George Mason University http://www.bcaplan.com [EMAIL PROTECTED] "He wrote a letter, bu

shameless self-promotion

I just updated my cv. I'm particularly pleased with my recent piece in the Economic Journal. http://www.gmu.edu/departments/economics/bcaplan/cv.htm -- Prof. Bryan Caplan Department of Economics George Mason University

Me in The Times of London

Shameless self-promotion: There was a lengthy editorial about my recent Economic Journal article published in The Times of London: http://www.gmu.edu/departments/economics/bcaplan/capecon.htm -- Prof. Bryan Caplan Department of Economics

Re: re : securities analysis

as long, no? -- Prof. Bryan Caplan Department of Economics George Mason University http://www.bcaplan.com [EMAIL PROTECTED] "Smerdyakov suddenly raised his eyes and smiled. 'Why I smile you must understand, if you

Re: re : securities analysis

rding the January effect? Thaler says average ROR in January is 3.5%, versus an average of .5% for all other months. Is this another case of basis points being exagerated into percentage points? -- Prof. Bryan Caplan Department of Economics Geo

Panic Room

David Fincher's new movie *Panic Room* may be the finest artistic expression of game theory around. Beautiful illustrations of commitment problems, subgame perfection, focal points, backwards induction... And its pure entertainment. -- Prof. Bryan C

Re: Tax Deductibility and Tax Policy

icularly upset about this change because it means that their > citizens pay more in Federal taxes than identical citizens in states > with an income tax. "States" meaning political leaders, right? Do you think the typical FL or TX citizen knows about this?

Tax Deductibility and Tax Policy

ng deductibility would really have this effect? And if so, why is such a large fraction of state funding based on sales taxes? -- Prof. Bryan Caplan Department of Economics George Mason University http://www.bcaplan.com [EMAIL PRO

Median Voter and Welfare

voter wants. They only support radical reforms conditional on things that are sure to never happen. -- Prof. Bryan Caplan Department of Economics George Mason University http://www.bcaplan.com [EMAIL PROTECTED] "He was thi

Re: Life Expectancy and Immigration

u know of any data? -- Prof. Bryan Caplan Department of Economics George Mason University http://www.bcaplan.com [EMAIL PROTECTED] "He was thinking that Prince Andrei was in error and did not see the true light, and that

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