Michael Granaas wrote:
On Thu, 16 Nov 2000, Thom Baguley wrote:
I was also struck by the poll result in Florida newspaper reporting that most
Floridians thought the election was fair. Most was less than 2/3 in that case.
I would be horrified if 1/3 of the electorate in an English
Using the data from this site, I did a matrix of scatterplots of the number of votes each candidate received versus each of the other candidates. Looks to me like Palm Beach county always shows up as an outlier for any scatterplot involving Buchanan, McReynolds, or Phillips. All were on the
Robert J. MacG. Dawson wrote:
Eric Scharin wrote:
The discussions I've heard during the media coverage of this all have a
disconcertingly political tinge to them. There seems to be a lack of debate
based on principle. The principle I'm referring to the right of every
eligible
Michael Granaas wrote:
On Thu, 16 Nov 2000, Thom Baguley wrote:
I was also struck by the poll result in Florida newspaper reporting that most
Floridians thought the election was fair. Most was less than 2/3 in that case.
I would be horrified if 1/3 of the electorate in an English
On Thu, 16 Nov 2000, Robert J. MacG. Dawson wrote:
Michael Granaas wrote:
On Thu, 16 Nov 2000, Thom Baguley wrote:
I was also struck by the poll result in Florida newspaper reporting that most
Floridians thought the election was fair. Most was less than 2/3 in that case.
I
Eric Scharin wrote:
The discussions I've heard during the media coverage of this all have a
disconcertingly political tinge to them. There seems to be a lack of debate
based on principle. The principle I'm referring to the right of every
eligible citizen to have their opinion heard
Well, let's look at that. In the '96 election, 14,000 or so
ballots were discarded as "spoiled" because of precisely the
same problem. Given the voter turnout in that election,
19,000 discards in this election is really not different
than that of '96.
Actually, the 14,000 ballots
The complaint from the Democrats was that there were
19000 spoiled ballots indicating that there was a
problem with the form. In 1996 there were 14800
spoiled ballots. The percentage of spoiled ballots
is roughly the same.
Actually, the percentage from the 2000 election is about double
all
of the data available.
- Eric
-Original Message-
From: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
[mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED]]On Behalf Of Reg Jordan
Sent: Friday, November 10, 2000 12:25 PM
To: [EMAIL PROTECTED]; dennis roberts
Subject: Re: Stats on Palm Beach votes
These 19,000 "spoiled&quo
"Al" [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote in message
[EMAIL PROTECTED]">news:[EMAIL PROTECTED]...
Note that if a voter figured out that he or
she made mistake during the voting process and
got a new ballot, the old ballot
goes into the discard pile. As it
turns out a large majority of the 19,000
Peter Lewycky wrote:
How many may have wanted to vote for Buchanan but got Gore instead?
Assuming that errors take place at the same rates, [rather than making
any unwarranted and invidious assumptions about relative intelligence of
Buchanan
and Gore voters], and assuming that (as
It was shown for few seconds on one of the channels. Possibly on CNN or
a Canadian TV station. Butterfly forms are in use in the US and not just
in Palm Beach. Warren Christopher called the form illegal.
Jerry Dallal wrote:
Peter Lewycky wrote:
The
butterfly ballot was used previously
Robert Chung wrote:
"Peter Lewycky" [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote in message
[EMAIL PROTECTED]">news:[EMAIL PROTECTED]...
How many may have wanted to vote for Buchanan but got Gore instead? I
don't have the all the stats at hand but Buchanan got something like
3000 votes. Is it the claim by
"Christopher J. Mecklin" [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote in
message [EMAIL PROTECTED]">news:[EMAIL PROTECTED]...
In regards to the point below:
(1) is a good point (the ballot looked simple to me but we should never
underestimate the ability of people to mess up anything)
but I don't buy "How many
"Simon, Steve, PhD" wrote:
The discussion on EDSTAT-L of the regression model by Greg Adams has been
very interesting. I would suggest that a Poisson regression model might be
more appropriate here than a simple linear regression model, because the
dependent variable (the number of votes
"Robert Chung" [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote in message
AOJO5.408511$[EMAIL PROTECTED]">news:AOJO5.408511$[EMAIL PROTECTED]...
"Peter Lewycky" [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote in message
[EMAIL PROTECTED]">news:[EMAIL PROTECTED]...
(snip)
Oh come on. As statisticians, we can't and don't (usually) make
the people claim that since it had been publicized in the newspaper trial
printing of the ballot ... that it was assumed that al gore, who IS listed
second on the left ... that his vote would be the second hole ... so, it
seems like many just like automatons ... punched the second hole ...
PROTECTED]]On Behalf Of Robert J. MacG.
Dawson
Sent: Friday, November 10, 2000 8:02 AM
To: Peter Lewycky
Cc: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Subject: Re: Stats on Palm Beach votes
Peter Lewycky wrote:
How many may have wanted to vote for Buchanan but got Gore instead?
Assuming that errors
"Robert J. MacG. Dawson" wrote:
Peter Lewycky wrote:
How many may have wanted to vote for Buchanan but got Gore instead?
and I responded:
Assuming that errors take place at the same rates, [rather than making
any unwarranted and invidious assumptions about relative
i think if you look at the graphs down the page at the url shown below ...
http://madison.hss.cmu.edu/palm-beach.pdf
it is pretty hard to argue that the data for buchanan this year is similar
to what it was in 1996 against dole ...
other counties showed even more votes for buchanan back then
At 03:51 PM 11/9/00 -0500, Reg Jordan wrote:
Did it cost Gore votes? Doesn't matter. Incompetence is not a defense.
on what basis can you conclude that the 19,000 invalidated ballots were due
to incompetence ... this seems to be your supposition ...
what if you saw a table that showed that
their campaigns.
Dr. David Coursey
Askew School
Florida State
-Original Message-
From: dennis roberts [EMAIL PROTECTED]
To: [EMAIL PROTECTED] [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Date: Friday, November 10, 2000 11:44 AM
Subject: Re: Stats on Palm Beach votes
the people claim that since it had been publicized
These 19,000 "spoiled" ballots account for about 0.3% of the vote count.
Doesn't seem too high to me.
reg
- Original Message -
From: "dennis roberts" [EMAIL PROTECTED]
To: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Sent: Friday, November 10, 2000 10:02 AM
Subject: Re: Stats on Palm Beach
At 11:45 AM 11/10/00 -0500, you wrote:
Well, let's look at that. In the '96 election, 14,000 or so ballots were
discarded as "spoiled" because of precisely the same problem. Given the
voter turnout in that election, 19,000 discards in this election is really
not different than that of '96.
did
PROTECTED];
"dennis roberts" [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Sent: Friday, November 10, 2000 1:34 PM
Subject: RE: Stats on Palm Beach votes
This is starting to seem relevant to the thread of a few weeks back
regarding the difference between statistical practical significance. It
may be tha
, November 10, 2000 12:19 PM
To: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Subject: Stats on Palm Beach votes
A valid discussion on the appropriate use of statistics seems
appropriate for this list forum and I rather enjoy learning about the
application of statistics to this complex problem. However.Can we
please
-
From: dennis roberts [EMAIL PROTECTED]
To: [EMAIL PROTECTED] [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Date: Friday, November 10, 2000 11:44 AM
Subject: Re: Stats on Palm Beach votes
the people claim that since it had been publicized in the newspaper trial
printing of the ballot ... that it was assumed that al gore
1) The ballot form was made public and widely distributed well in
advance of the election. The print was larger than normal to assist the
elderly. The ballot was a single page. If they had used a conventional
list then it would've been two pages long (possibly with Gore on the
second page). Both
-- Forwarded message --
Date: Thu, 9 Nov 2000 11:26:51 -0500
From: Barry Wellman [EMAIL PROTECTED]
To: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Subject: Re: important: election results (fwd)
David, I believe you and will disemminate, but Palm beach is a bit of an
outlier, given the ultra-rich pop. of
I wouldn't run to the media quite yet. I've been looking at the data since first
hearing about it an hour ago. Start looking at the assumptions of linearity and
especially normality and Palm Beach may not be such an outlier as you think.
Interesting data set though.
rick
--- Juan
Juan Zuluaga wrote:
-- Forwarded Message --
Date: Wednesday, November 08, 2000 3:57 PM -0500
From: Greg Adams [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Subject: important: election results
As you probably all know, Bush has 1700 more votes in Florida over Gore.
However, folks in Palm Beach
In regards to the point below:
(1) is a good point (the ballot looked simple to me but we should never
underestimate the ability of people to mess up anything)
but I don't buy "How many thought that they were marking
Bush but punched the hole for another candidate?" Bush/Cheney's position
at
could not
succeed." -- Mark Twain
reg
- Original Message -
From: "Juan Zuluaga" [EMAIL PROTECTED]
To: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Sent: Thursday, November 09, 2000 11:43 AM
Subject: Stats on Palm Beach votes
-- Forwarded Message --
Date: Wednesday, November 08, 2000
On Thu, 09 Nov 2000 17:22:25 GMT, Peter Lewycky [EMAIL PROTECTED]
wrote:
1) The ballot form was made public and widely distributed well in
advance of the election. The print was larger than normal to assist the
elderly. The ballot was a single page. If they had used a conventional
list then
The analyses are what they are, but they assume Palm Beach should
follow the regression model. Maybe, maybe not. It would be
interesting to know whether Palm Beach also an outlier for Buchanan
during the primaries. If so, then I'd be more inclined to let it
drop.
Juan Zuluaga wrote:
The discussion on EDSTAT-L of the regression model by Greg Adams has been
very interesting. I would suggest that a Poisson regression model might be
more appropriate here than a simple linear regression model, because the
dependent variable (the number of votes for Buchanan) is a count. The
How many may have wanted to vote for Buchanan but got Gore instead? I
don't have the all the stats at hand but Buchanan got something like
3000 votes. Is it the claim by the Democrats that all these votes
should've gone to Gore? There were 19000 spoiled ballots due to double
marking this year. In
Peter Lewycky wrote:
The
butterfly ballot was used previously and is in use in other
jurisdictions including Cooke county Illinois. The comments by Daley are
hypocritical and unworthy.
Have you seen one of the IL ballots? I've heard one claim on CNN that
they were used only for uncontested
"Peter Lewycky" [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote in message
[EMAIL PROTECTED]">news:[EMAIL PROTECTED]...
How many may have wanted to vote for Buchanan but got Gore instead? I
don't have the all the stats at hand but Buchanan got something like
3000 votes. Is it the claim by the Democrats that all
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