[EM] Offense/Defense, an FBC compliant method between MMPO and Approval

2005-10-05 Thread Simmons, Forest
Dear EM aficionados, Here's a method that elects the candidate with the best ratio of offensive strength to defensive weakness. Until a better name comes up, call it Offense/Defense or O/D. For each pair of candidates X and Y, let F(X,Y) be the number of ballots on which X is ranked equal

[EM] Gradual Information Approval

2005-09-30 Thread Simmons, Forest
A while back Kevin came up with an interesting method that he called Gradual Information Approval. There are both ranked ballot and ratings versions of this method. If there are K candidates then K-1 approval rounds are simulated. In round m, the 1+K-m most approved candidates in the previou

[EM] FW: [Condorcet] Re: why the Schulze Method is a Better Proposal

2005-09-30 Thread Simmons, Forest
Title: [Condorcet] Re: why the Schulze Method is a Better Proposal Somehow this message didn't pass muster for the Condorcet list. From: Simmons, Forest Sent: Wed 9/28/2005 2:31 PMTo: [EMAIL PROTECTED]Subject: RE: [Condorcet] Re: why the Schulze Method is a Better Proposal Jeff

[EM] RE: [Condorcet] A "Condorcet" by any other name still smells as sweet?

2005-09-30 Thread Simmons, Forest
Title: Re: [Condorcet] A "Condorcet" by any other name still smells as sweet? Markus wrote ... "To be honest, I believe that whatever Condorcet methodwe will propose, the chances that the state of Washingtonwill adopt the proposed Condorcet method are not verygood."   Unfortunately, I thin

[EM] RE: improved approval?

2005-09-27 Thread Simmons, Forest
In the recent message quted below there are two questions. 1. What should we call the Approval method that allows an extra mark to identfy the favorite candidate, thus satisfying the Approval voter's urge to give more moal support to Favorite than to Compromise? I suggest "Approval Plus" or

[EM] RE: a better Bucklin flavored FBC satisfying method

2005-09-27 Thread Simmons, Forest
From: [EMAIL PROTECTED] on behalf of [EMAIL PROTECTED] Sent: Sun 9/25/2005 12:00 PM To: election-methods-electorama.com@electorama.com Subject: Election-methods Digest, Vol 15, Issue 53 I had written .. > Note that in ordinary Bucklin the ordinal informat

[EM] RE: [Condorcet] Re: why the Schulze Method is a Better Proposal

2005-09-27 Thread Simmons, Forest
Title: [Condorcet] Re: why the Schulze Method is a Better Proposal On Sun, 25 Sep 2005, Jeff Fisher wrote:>> Cycles (Condorcet paradoxes) still exist in DMC whether it recognizes> them or not. To avoid discussing them would be possible but dishonest.>> DMC's tendency to hide cycles rather

[EM] RE: Bucklin

2005-09-24 Thread Simmons, Forest
Title: Election-methods Digest, Vol 15, Issue 50 Someone wrote: I think the "+" to show "I like B better than A even though I ranked A=B" disingenuous and unnecessary. If you prefer one of the equally ranked alterntatives more than the other, just don't rank them equally.   Forest Answers

[EM] A better Bucklin flavored FBC satisfying method

2005-09-24 Thread Simmons, Forest
Put some ideas from MDDA, Bucklin, and MMPO together, and what do you get? I'll let Ted Stern name it, but here it is: Collapse the top ranks as in Bucklin until (according to the collapsed ballots) there is a candidate undefeated by a majority. If, at that point, there is more than one cand

[EM] RE: Better-worded definition of ERBucklin(whole)

2005-09-24 Thread Simmons, Forest
Adam wrote: I haven't been following this line of threads terribly closely, so I just want to be clear that I understand. The way I think about Bucklin is an approval election where the approval cutoff bar on everyone's ballot keeps getting lowered until we have a majority approved winner. It s

[EM] RE: Bucklin

2005-09-23 Thread Simmons, Forest
I like the modified ER Bucklin Whole version that Kevin and Mike have been considering. I have two suggestions that might make it more viable as a public proposal: 1. Keep the number of possible distinct ranks down to seven or eight, for ballot simplicity. 2. Allow a special mark "+" to b

[EM] An interesting example

2005-09-22 Thread Simmons, Forest
Here's an interesting example with four candidates, in which (under Shulze) an order reversal between Favorite and Compromise would give the win to Compromise (instead of a third candidate D) even though Compromise already beats Favorite. In other words, there seems to be incentive to betray Fa

[EM] RE: Election-methods Digest, Vol 15, Issue 37

2005-09-21 Thread Simmons, Forest
Kevin wrote (>) in response to my (>>): >Also, there's a second election at this convention! Supposing the method used >at >this convention satisfies weak FBC, what have we gained (in terms of FBC >compliance) >by voting for delegates first? >> Or are you just saying that although this method m

[EM] Mike's suggestions for Public Proposals

2005-09-21 Thread Simmons, Forest
Mike suggest that the best public proposals are ... "Best: MDDA, or maybe MDDB, which combine FBC with SFC, thereby accomodating the needs of different kinds of voters. It now seems to me that MDDA is better than MDDB. I'd said that SR would be a good proposal under certain conditions, when peopl

[EM] RE: moral basis for approval

2005-09-19 Thread Simmons, Forest
I sympathize with Rob's complaint about the meaning of approval versus disapproval in Approval. There is a trade-off, a price for the simplicity of Approval. However, DMC takes the pressure off this question because in DMC, approval is only used to eliminate enough of the Smith set for an un

[EM] RE: SR

2005-09-19 Thread Simmons, Forest
Here's the weakness of SR: 60 ABCDEF 40 BCDEFA Here A should be the winner, but B has by far the best SR score of only 60 versus A's lousy 200. I believe that this defect is called "teaming." Forest <> Election-methods mailing list - see http://electorama.com/em for list info

[EM] RE: Definition of Sincere Approval voting

2005-09-19 Thread Simmons, Forest
Perhaps we could distinguish "sincere approval strategy" from merely "consistent approval strategy" according to whether both or only the first of Chris' conditions are satisfied. I agree strongly with Chris' remark concerning the advantage of DMC zero info strategy over Shulze(WV) zero info s

[EM] RE: Election-methods Digest, Vol 15, Issue 37

2005-09-19 Thread Simmons, Forest
Forest claimed: > That said, an even simpler method comes closer to satisfying the Strong FBC > than any of these > other more complicated methods: Asset Voting: > > Voters vote for their favorite, who represents them by proxy in an election > completion > convention. Write-ins are allowed.

[EM] RE: [Condorcet] Favorite Betrayal in DMC

2005-09-19 Thread Simmons, Forest
eally care about the most. From: [EMAIL PROTECTED] on behalf of Simmons, Forest Sent: Sat 9/17/2005 3:00 PMTo: election-methods-electorama.com@electorama.comCc: [EMAIL PROTECTED]Subject: [Condorcet] Favorite Betrayal in DMC One of the nice things about DMC is that it is easy to pinpoint

[EM] Approval versus Ranked methods

2005-09-17 Thread Simmons, Forest
Title: [Condorcet] RE: Approval Strategy in DMC Rep. Nixon rightly opined that Approval would not be favored as a proposal because people want to be able to distinguish their favorite from their lesser evil compromise.   Although Approval satisfies the weak Favorite Betrayal Criterion (FBC

[EM] Favorite Betrayal in DMC

2005-09-17 Thread Simmons, Forest
One of the nice things about DMC is that it is easy to pinpoint the precise circumstances in which there is a Favorite Betrayal incentive, i.e. where Favorite Betrayal is more likely to payoff than not. It seems to be much harder to pin this down in Schulze. Here are the conditions that must

[EM] RE: [Condorcet] Re: Voting as duty (was ties & truncation)

2005-09-16 Thread Simmons, Forest
Title: [Condorcet] Re: Voting as duty (was ties & truncation) Somebody thought that the candidates would frequently fail to be ratified by the electorate.   Well, if the statisticians take this into account properly, and submit for ratification only those candidates that have a 99 percent

[EM] RE: Improved Condorcet Approval (ICA)

2005-09-16 Thread Simmons, Forest
dates, and truncate all others. I'm not sure. Forest Kevin replied to the following: Forest, --- "Simmons, Forest " <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> a écrit : > Kevin, your ICA method interests me. In particular, your creative use of > "equa

[EM] Re: DMC strategy (correction)

2005-09-16 Thread Simmons, Forest
Title: Election-methods Digest, Vol 15, Issue 33 Here's the corrected strategy for the case where you have enough polling information to discern the Smith set:   First identify (with the letter  C) your favorite member of the Smith set (or, if possible, the uncovered set). Put your app

[EM] DMC strategy

2005-09-16 Thread Simmons, Forest
Recently Rob Lanphier asked how to determine the strategically optimal approval cutoff when voting under DMC. Here are my suggestions: (1) For the case where you have enough polling information to discern the Smith set: First identify (with the letter C) your favorite member of the Smit

[EM] RE: Simple English

2005-09-14 Thread Simmons, Forest
Woops, now I see that step 3 puts all defeats in cycles, so disregard my objection. Forest I had written: The plain English description of Shulze is pretty good except for the last step (5), which is incorrect. In Shulze you nullify the weakest defeat in a cycle. The "in a cycle" part

[EM] RE: ICA (correction)

2005-09-14 Thread Simmons, Forest
I meant to say that you could use matrices M and PM (not CM) to formulate ICA, in the last paragraph quoted below. Sorry for the confusion. Forest I suggest that we consider methods that sum two modified pairwise matrices in addition to the basic pairwise matrix: (This description is at th

[EM] RE: [Condorcet] Plain English description of Schulze(wv)

2005-09-14 Thread Simmons, Forest
Title: [Condorcet] Plain English description of Schulze(wv) The plain English description of Shulze is pretty good except for the last step (5), which is incorrect.  In Shulze you nullify the weakest defeat in a cycle.  The "in a cycle" part is extremely important.   To see this point supp

[EM] Voting as duty (was ties & truncation)

2005-09-14 Thread Simmons, Forest
Title: Re: [Condorcet] Ties & Truncation: Information Loss The main reason that "lazy" voters don't take the time to study up on and carefully rank all of the candidates is that they know that in these large scale elections the chance that their vote will be pivotal is practically nil.   S

[EM] more comments on logical complexity (was Why Schulze is Better than DMC)

2005-09-14 Thread Simmons, Forest
Another measure of logical complexity of a method is the number of alternations between quantifier types, from universal to existential and back, in the complete definition of the winner. For example MinMax is more complex in this regard than DMC, because the MinMax winner is the candidate C s

[EM] Improved Condorcet Approval (ICA)

2005-09-14 Thread Simmons, Forest
Title: RE: [Condorcet] Can we come to consensus? (ICA) Kevin, your ICA method interests me.  In particular, your creative use of "equal ranked top" might be called "power top" analogous to what Mike Ossipoff recently called "power truncation" for equal (non)ranking at the bottom.   I sugge

[EM] RE: [Condorcet] Why Schulze is Better than DMC

2005-09-13 Thread Simmons, Forest
Title: Re: [Condorcet] Why Schulze is Better than DMC There are other objective measures of complexity besides the ones mentioned by Jobst. (He mentioned computational complexity from the point of view of the smallest accurate description of the method or algorithm, as well as the minimal

RE: [EM] RE: FBC comparison: WV, margins, MMPO, DMC

2005-09-12 Thread Simmons, Forest
rongenst beatpath C(80)F(70)A(65)D through the candidates.   If I am not mistaken, River, Beatpath, and Ranked Pairs all agree on C as winner.   I hope that this earns some respect for DMC's Favorite Betrayal resistance :-)   My Best,   Forest From: Adam Tarr [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED]Sent: Fri

[EM] Order collapse or extra approval: which is worse?

2005-09-10 Thread Simmons, Forest
I believe that most voters would feel worse about having to rank Favorite equal with Compromise than they would about ranking Favorite ahead of Compromise while approving both. If you collapse the order, then nobody can tell from your ballot which you prefer, unless (somehow) approval can dist

RE:[EM] MinMax(ao)

2005-09-09 Thread Simmons, Forest
I wrote ... > Yes, this is the measure of defeat strength used in AWP, but here's the > question: Is AWP based > on River the same as AWP based on MinMax? > > Somewhat surprisingly, the answer to the analogous question for "winning > approval" as a measure > of defeat strength is affirmative

[EM] RE: approval strategy in DMC

2005-09-09 Thread Simmons, Forest
Title: Re: [Condorcet] Can we come to consensus? Jeff Fisher recently opined that DMC voters would likely adopt the strategy of approving all candidates that they considered certain to be beaten pairwise by their Favorite.  This would  put these candidates in a better position to doubly de

[EM] RE: FBC comparison: WV, margins, MMPO, DMC

2005-09-09 Thread Simmons, Forest
James has asked for evidence that "winning votes" (as a measure of defeat strength) gives more incentive for insincere rankings than "winning approval" does. Adam and Kevin have argued that Winning Approval tends to encourage Favorite Betrayal more than Winning Votes does. But a thorough ex

[EM] MinMax(ao)

2005-09-09 Thread Simmons, Forest
Kevin has written (in response to) >--- "Simmons, Forest " <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> a écrit : >> This brings up a question. How good is MinMax(Approval Against)? >> >> By "Approval Against" I mean number of ballots on which X is approved and Y

[EM] RE: [Condorcet] Can we come to consensus?

2005-09-07 Thread Simmons, Forest
Title: Re: [Condorcet] Can we come to consensus?   Jeff wrote ... Now that we have presented a few favorites and examined them, I hope we allat least understand each other, even if we do not yet agree. It now lookslike we have the following:* DMC has one ardent supporter and several contrib

[EM] Jeff Fisher's concern about DMC

2005-09-07 Thread Simmons, Forest
Title: Re: [Condorcet] Comment on DMC Here is an "ABC" example that illustrates Jeff Fisher's concern as I understand it (see below):   Sincere zero info ballots: 45 A>>C>B 20 C>>B>A 35 B>>A>C   Pairwise cycle is A>C>B>A.   Approval order is A>B>C.   So the sincere DMC winner is B.   But in

[EM] AWP versus DMC

2005-09-07 Thread Simmons, Forest
Dear James, as I said in a recent message, I also think that AWP is more resistant to burying than DMC. But until there is a simpler description of AWP, I will support DMC over AWP in the category of "Condorcet Public Proposals." This brings up a question. How good is MinMax(Approval Agains

[EM] Another lottery method

2005-09-05 Thread Simmons, Forest
Title: Re: A class of ballot set with "unbeaten in mean lotteries." The following lottery method is easier to explain in terms of ratings (range ballots), but can (and should) be adapted to rankings (ordinal ballots) by modifying the following definition.     Definition 1:   Lottery L1 beat

[EM] RE: do the favorite Condorcet methods coalesce when we measure defeat strength with approval margins, etc.

2005-09-03 Thread Simmons, Forest
s are immune to strategic > voting when there is a Condorcet winner (that is, voters cannot improve > the election result from their perspective by voting insincerely). Is > there > an appropriate paper to cite that makes this argument clearly? Thanks > much, > > -- Andrew >

[EM] RE: utility

2005-09-02 Thread Simmons, Forest
My two cents worth on utility: 1. Utility can be a useful concept for an individual to use in making a decision, even though it may be impossible to calculate. For example, if candidates A, B, and C have equal priors of winning, and my preference order is A>B>C, then I might decide to approv

[EM] RE: DMC the greatest Condorcet? I wish, but doubt it

2005-08-31 Thread Simmons, Forest
Warren, Neither Jobst nor I think that Condorcet methods are the ultimate. In particular there is a conjecture on the EM list that no Condorcet efficient method can satisfy the FBC, so we shouldn't expect that of DMC. If this conjecture is proven false, and it turns out that a reasonably sim

[EM] RE: reason #17

2005-08-30 Thread Simmons, Forest
To the message from T.S. copied below, I would like to give a little more background. A few months after I came up with the idea of bubble sorting the approval order, I came across an article at http://www10.org/cdrom/papers/577/ in which the authors suggested bubble sorting the Borda order an

[EM] FW: Recent History Perspective on Condorcet Methods

2005-08-30 Thread Simmons, Forest
Title: Re: [Condorcet] Comment on DMC Here's something I posted today on the Condorcet list.   Forest From: Simmons, Forest Sent: Tue 8/30/2005 1:36 PMTo: [EMAIL PROTECTED]Subject: Recent History Perspective on Condorcet Methods As most of you know, the Election Methods grou

[EM] reason #17

2005-08-29 Thread Simmons, Forest
Warren (wds) asked if I could be more precise about reason #17. > 17. It is resistant to the burying strategy that plagues some > Condorcet methods. This is related to reason number 9. The expert on burying in Condorcet methods is James Green-Armytage, who invented a method called "Cardinal W

[EM] RE: lotteries unbeaten in mean

2005-08-24 Thread Simmons, Forest
Suppose that ... 1. there are three candidates A, B, and C, 2. ballot rankings are strict, 3. in each ordinal faction second ranked candidates are distributed uniformly between the other two, and 4. there is a beat cycle A>B>C>A . Let (alpha, beta, gamma) equal (m(B

[EM] RE: 15 reasons

2005-08-24 Thread Simmons, Forest
Three more reasons: 16. Like any method that makes germane use of both ordinal and approval information it is well adapted to three-slot ballots, i.e. voters that don't want to submit complete rankings can opt to have their approval order extended by the order of their favorite. 17. It is

[EM] RE: Clarifications/commentary on solutions to Gerrymandering.

2005-08-22 Thread Simmons, Forest
Under the heading 4 - DISCUSSION OF ALTERNATE NON-GRAPH-BASED ALGORITHMS Adam said ... "Warren Smith has proposed an alternate solution, which has been brought up before on the EM list, of simply dragging a "cutting edge" across the state to make a division at the proper population ratio, a

[EM] RE: simplifying ballots

2005-08-20 Thread Simmons, Forest
In his response under this subject heading Mr. Lomax seemd to think that I was advocating Cumulative Voting, then he offered what amounted to a plausibility argument for my assertion that Cumulative Voting is strategically equivalent to Plurality. I'm slightly miffed that he would imply that I

[EM] RE: simplifying ballots

2005-08-20 Thread Simmons, Forest
Mr. Lomax wrote: "Asset Voting, per se, was invented by Warren Smith, though it strongly resembles delegable proxy (which seems to have been invented independently by a number of people, I know I did not get it from anyone else). " I reply: It's true that the name "Asset Voting" was invented b

[EM] a democratic approach to intractable optimizations

2005-08-20 Thread Simmons, Forest
In a recent message, partly quoted below, Adam Tarr outlined an NP hard optimization approach to redistricting. He suggested that a genetic optimization algorithm might be used for practical purposes. It has been suggested before that in such cases anybody with a proposal found by any means (

[EM] RE: A class of ballot set with "unbeaten in mean lotteries."

2005-08-20 Thread Simmons, Forest
Title: Re: A class of ballot set with "unbeaten in mean lotteries." Jobst and All:   I did make one (inconsequential) boo boo.  The normalization factor for the weights x+y-z, y+z-x, and z+x-y should be 1/N, not 1/(2N), since the sum of these weights is x+y+z=N.   To physically carry out t

[EM] A class of ballot set with "unbeaten in mean lotteries."

2005-08-19 Thread Simmons, Forest
Title: Re: [EM] 0-info approval voting, repeated polling, and adjusting priors Let x, y, and z be positive integers such that x+y+z=N, and max(x,y,z)   x: A>B>C y: B>C>A z: C>A>B   Further assume that the cardinal ratings of the middle candidate within each faction are distributed uniformly

[EM] RE: simplifying ballots

2005-08-17 Thread Simmons, Forest
Abd ulRahman Lomax proposed: The proposal is that the ballots might be counted first as ordinary approval. If a majority appears from this process for a given candidate in a single-winner election, the candidate would be elected. If not, then the ballots would be retabulated as fractional approval

[EM] Simplifying ballots

2005-08-16 Thread Simmons, Forest
Asset voting (in its lone mark version) is one of the few methods simple enough to have a decent chance among lazy U.S. voters, and it would be the greatest possible improvement consistent with the simple lone mark ballot. In Asset voting you vote for the candidate that you think would represen

[EM] RE: Approval strategy in close three-way race?

2005-08-15 Thread Simmons, Forest
The approval strategy that maximizes voting power (thus minimizing the probability of an approval voter's regret) in a close three way race is this: First decide your preference order among the three major candidates, say A>B>C. Of course you should approve A and leave C unapproved. Approve B

RE: [EM] 0-info approval voting, repeated polling, and adjusting priors

2005-08-13 Thread Simmons, Forest
Title: Re: [EM] 0-info approval voting, repeated polling, and adjusting priors As usual, Jobst has given us lots of food for thought.   First I would like to compare Joe Weinstein's approval strategy with its marginal version based on tie probabilities.   The marginal version is to approve

RE: [EM] 0-info approval voting, repeated polling, and adjusting priors

2005-08-10 Thread Simmons, Forest
Title: Re: [EM] 0-info approval voting, repeated polling, and adjusting priors Jobst gave examples in which optimal approval strategy for someone with preferences A>B>C>D would be to approve only A and C.    Mike Ossipoff and Richard Moore first made me aware of these counterintuitive pos

RE: [EM] 0-info approval voting, repeated polling, and adjusting priors

2005-08-10 Thread Simmons, Forest
Title: Re: [EM] 0-info approval voting, repeated polling, and adjusting priors   Jobst wrote ... Dear Forest,I'm not sure what you mean by the red marble thing or how it clarifiesthe meaning of the priors in zero-info strategy. I reply: I'm not sure either. I'm stabbing around in the dark

RE: [EM] 0-info approval voting, repeated polling, and adjusting priors

2005-08-09 Thread Simmons, Forest
What I wrote below doesn't make sense because I got two different ideas mixed together. I wrote (emphasis added to highlight the mistake): Suppose for example, that at each stage a marble is drawn (with replacement) at random from a bag containing one red and 999 green marbles, and that the f

RE: [EM] 0-info approval voting, repeated polling, and adjusting priors

2005-08-09 Thread Simmons, Forest
Title: RE: [EM] 0-info approval voting, repeated polling, and adjusting priors Jobst wrote ...A point which troubles me is this: The justification of placing the approval cutoff at the expected or median utility according to the current priors is based upon the two assumptions that (1) giv

RE: [EM] 0-info approval voting, repeated polling, and adjusting priors

2005-08-06 Thread Simmons, Forest
Title: Re: [EM] 0-info approval voting, repeated polling, and adjusting priors Here's a two line description of the simplest method that Jobst's proof applies to:   1. Ballots are ordinal with approval cutoffs.   2. In each round (and on each ballot) the approval cutoff is adjusted by movi

[EM] clarification of proof in my previous post

2005-08-04 Thread Simmons, Forest
when there are a finite number of voters.] Forest From: Jobst Heitzig [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] Sent: Wed 8/3/2005 11:03 PM To: Simmons, Forest Cc: election-methods-electorama.com@electorama.com Subject: Re: [EM] 0-info approval voting, repeated polling, and adjusting prio

RE: [EM] 0-info approval voting, repeated polling, and adjusting priors

2005-08-04 Thread Simmons, Forest
s.]   Forest From: Jobst Heitzig [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED]Sent: Wed 8/3/2005 11:03 PMTo: Simmons, Forest Cc: election-methods-electorama.com@electorama.comSubject: Re: [EM] 0-info approval voting, repeated polling, and adjusting priors Dear Forest!You wrote:> At each successive stage we

[EM] RE: 0-info approval voting, repeated polling, and adjusting priors

2005-08-03 Thread Simmons, Forest
Title: 0-info approval voting, repeated polling, and adjusting priors Thanks to one and all (in both private and public communications) for the creative small group ideas,   Jobst asked about repeated approval polling ideas that might converge.   Here's an approach that I would like to se

[EM] small group methods

2005-07-30 Thread Simmons, Forest
I'm interested in hearing a variety of ideas for voting in small groups where, for example, hands can be raised, repeated balloting is not a problem, etc. One application I have in mind is text book selection. At PCC all sections of Calculus 251 must use the same text book. The math Subject A

[EM] "All election methods have de facto front end lotteries" AND (as a free bonus) "beatpath with simple ballots"

2005-07-28 Thread Simmons, Forest
As in all my postings, my main objective is to encourage mental limbering up, so that we don't get bogged down in a lack of imagination and thereby overlook the wide variety of possibilities whose surface we have barely scratched. All elections are influenced by biased random bits of informatio

RE: [EM] Dave on approval, ranked ballots

2005-07-28 Thread Simmons, Forest
>From his remarks below I think that Lomax would agree with me that candidate A >in the following example would likely be better for the electorate than >candidate M: Sincere 55 M>A>>B 45 B>A>>M On the other hand, M would be more likely to win the approval election, unless a significant perc

[EM] RE: open primary followed by election (was rank/approval cutoff ballot)

2005-07-26 Thread Simmons, Forest
On 20 Jul 2005 at 18:51 UTC-0700, Abd ulRahman Lomax wrote: >At 03:47 PM 7/20/2005, Dan Bishop wrote: >>[...]I think a good solution would be for elections to have two rounds: >> >> 1. A qualifying primary, done entirely with write-in ballots, and >> counted using Approval. Candidates with a su

RE: [EM] rank/approval cutoff ballot

2005-07-21 Thread Simmons, Forest
I like James' sample ballot and accompaning explanation at ... http://fc.antioch.edu/~james_green-armytage/vm/rank-cutoff-ballot.htm Forest <> Election-methods mailing list - see http://electorama.com/em for list info

[EM] RE: Lotteries undefeated "in median"

2005-07-12 Thread Simmons, Forest
Jobst! Here's a connection to approval. A lottery L is undefeated in mean iff every candidate would end up with less than 50 percent approval if voters were to use above mean approval strategy (based on prior winning probabilities borrowed from L) . A lottery L is undefeated in median iff e

[EM] RE: Lotteries undefeated "in median"

2005-07-09 Thread Simmons, Forest
Jobst, I'm still digesting this. I'm always interested in potentially good "lottery methods." Here's my latest attempt: Voters first submit approvals, and the candidates are listed in order of approval. Each voter then submits a number between 1 and the number of candidates (to be used

[EM] A small group method that satisfies the FBC

2005-07-07 Thread Simmons, Forest
Random ballot satisfies the Strong FBC, but it is too promiscuous with the probability for most situations. Here's a small group method that is much more frugal with the probability while still satisfying the FBC, if not the Strong FBC. 1. List the alternatives in order of approval on the bl

RE:[EM] Criterion: 0-info mean consistency (0IMC)

2005-07-07 Thread Simmons, Forest
Jobst, I don't know that this criterion has been discussed in general. The CR example I gave came up a few years ago when were comparing cumulative votes and ordinary CR, whose ballot restrictions correspond to L(1) and L(infinity) norms, repectively. It was noted that for these norms the o

RE: [EM] Criterion: 0-info mean consistency (0IMC)

2005-07-05 Thread Simmons, Forest
Very interesting, Jobst. Suppose that ratings are between zero and 100. On each ballot normalize these ratings by shifting to the left by its mean rating and then dividing by the root mean square of those ratings. This ballot contributes its normalized ratings to the respective candidates.

[EM] RE: clone winner and three slot ballots

2005-06-27 Thread Simmons, Forest
Mike asked: Is Clone-Winner the same as the Independence from Clones Criterion (ICC)? I reply: I understood it to mean that if a winner is cloned, then the winner must come from the new clone set. I intended the votes-only version of this in my posting.

[EM] RE: FBC, Clone-Winner, and pairwise components seem incompatible

2005-06-25 Thread Simmons, Forest
Kevin asked, "Any thoughts?" Forest replies: Suppose that you modify MDDA by specifying a three slot, MCA style ballot, i.e. allowing voters to rank as many alternatives as they like in first and second place, but all other candidates are considered equally ranked and unapproved. Call the

[EM] A simpler geographical example showing that mere ordinal info is inadequate

2005-06-14 Thread Simmons, Forest
Jobst recently gave a nice, but rather elaborate geographical example with different winners for different methods. With a more limited objective in mind (showing the inadequacy of mere ordinal information) I present a simpler example: This example is in the form of two related scenarios that

[EM] RE: Fall Back Approval

2005-06-06 Thread Simmons, Forest
Subject: RE: [EM] Fall Back Approval To: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Message-ID: <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> Content-Type: text/plain; charset=iso-8859-1 Forest, --- "Simmons, Forest " <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> a écrit : > In the first round only the alternatives ranked first (or equal fi

[EM] Fall Back Approval

2005-06-03 Thread Simmons, Forest
Ballots are ordinal with truncation and other equal ranks allowed. In the first round only the alternatives ranked first (or equal first) are counted as approved, i.e. a tentative cutoff is placed immediately below the top rank on each ballot. In subsequent rounds the tentative cutoff is move

[EM] RE:MMPO, contd

2005-06-03 Thread Simmons, Forest
Near the end of his message Mike wrote ... It seems to me that the first step of sprucing-up was to eliminate every candidate who isn't in a certain selection set. The set of candidates who could win without violating BC? And then was that followed immediately by the collapsing of beat-clone-se

[EM] RE: MMPO

2005-05-26 Thread Simmons, Forest
I don't have much time right now, but here are a few brief replies to Mike's comments and questions. >From: "MIKE OSSIPOFF" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> Subject: [EM] MMPO As you know, MMPO can be introduced to people very briefly: Voters rank as many or as few candidates as they want to. Eq

[EM] RE: CIBR

2005-05-25 Thread Simmons, Forest
This looks promising. I like this kind of creativity. Three Questions: 1. Exactly how do you define correlation? 2. Do you re-calculate the correlations after each elimination? 3. What about clone triplets, quintuplets, etc.? Forest <> Election-methods mailing list - see http://el

[EM] RE: MMPO satisfies FBC in the general case

2005-05-23 Thread Simmons, Forest
Kevin, thanks for supplying the details of MMPO's FBC compliance. I never doubted it since I suggested it back in March 2003, inspired by your "median winner" method for two slot ballots. http://listserver.dreamhost.com/pipermail/election-methods-electorama.com/2003-March/009575.html I was d

[EM] RE: resistance to raffles (was assumption of sincere ballots)

2005-05-20 Thread Simmons, Forest
I agree that non-deterministic methods are hard to sell to the wider public. I think that's why Jobst is suggesting small group scenarios. <> Election-methods mailing list - see http://electorama.com/em for list info

[EM] RE: assumption of sincere ballots

2005-05-19 Thread Simmons, Forest
In the context of this thread Chris wrote ... Normally if there is a lot of ill-will between rigid majority and minority factions, then the majority will not assent to a raffle, and if there is one the losing side will suspect that it was rigged. I reply:

[EM] RE: fun example

2005-05-19 Thread Simmons, Forest
Jobst's example could be something like a vote to determine where the olympic games or some world wide conference was to take place. Notice that the question, "Which is the best city for this purpose?" has different answers for different voters, as opposed to some voters being right and some b

[EM] RE: assumption of sincere ballots (was Approval Later-no-Harm)

2005-05-13 Thread Simmons, Forest
From: Chris Benham <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> Subject: [EM] Re: "Approval Later-no-Harm", ... I am of the view that it is possible and desirable to have the situation where the big majority of voters are innocent of strategy and/or not interested in strategy, and I strongly believe that the "officia

[EM] RE: approval and pareto

2005-05-03 Thread Simmons, Forest
If ballots are ordinal with approval cutoffs, and alternative A pareto dominates alternative B, then B cannot have more approval than A. If B has approval equal to A's, then the tie should be broken by random ballot. In that case alternative A will beat B, since A is ranked higher than B on e

[EM] RE: percentage support

2005-05-03 Thread Simmons, Forest
Sometimes when a concept is presented fuzzily it stimulates more creative thought than when it is set forth more definitively. This percentage support idea reminds me of an observation made by Martin Harper a few years back. If you list the candidates in order of approval, and then assign e

[EM] Generic Name for the "Gerald Ford" candidate

2005-04-26 Thread Simmons, Forest
Russ said ... I'd label it something like "[End Approved Candidates]". Forest replies... I like your"End Approved Candidates" or perhaps "Approval/Disapproval Cutoff Rank." How about, "I disapprove candidates ranked after this rank:"? Some other suggestions that have been entertained ar

[EM] RE: auto truncation

2005-04-23 Thread Simmons, Forest
Date: Fri, 22 Apr 2005 18:42:16 -0700 From: Russ Paielli <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> Subject: [EM] auto-truncation To: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Note, however, that the added equipment requirement for an approval cutoff could delay the adoption for decades, but I won't get into that now. Forest replies:

[EM] RE: Election-methods Digest, Vol 10, Issue 34

2005-04-18 Thread Simmons, Forest
Well said, Mike. Every time I hear that the program I was listening to on Public Radio was supported by a generaous grant from the Rockefeller Foundation I think of the workers and their families who were shot by private security forces (Brinks) and national guardsmen for striking or being wit

[EM] RE: Election-methods Digest, Vol 10, Issue 30

2005-04-13 Thread Simmons, Forest
than the late Hugh W. Nibley, the old adage "The idle shall not eat the bread of the laborer" originally meant that the idle rich should not be eating the bread of the working poor. Forest Simmons, Forest simmonfo-at-up.edu |EMlist| wrote: > My idea is that in a large enough el

[EM] Re: Collecting Ordinal Information

2005-04-13 Thread Simmons, Forest
Title: Election-methods Digest, Vol 10, Issue 25 Below where I wrote "99% confidence" I should have specified the confidence interval:   If n= 1,the the standard deviation is 100*SQRT(P*Q) which is less than 50, as long as P and Q are positive numbers that sum to unity.  Here P is th

[EM] Collecting Ordinal Information

2005-04-13 Thread Simmons, Forest
Recently someone asked about the best way to collect ordinal information. Jobst and Ted have recently suggested methods that use the basic information theoretic principle of encoding the most likely messages with the smallest code words, and getting approval information as a bonus. [The most li

[EM] Democratic Fair Choice and the set P

2005-04-07 Thread Simmons, Forest
Both DFC and DMC make use of the set P of all alternatives that pairwise defeat the alternatives that have greater approval. I would like to define another set which I will call BP consisting of all alternatives that have beat paths to every alternative with greater approval. In other words,

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