Re: [FRIAM] anthropological observations

Eric, Was it Barrier to Objects? https://scholar.harvard.edu/walterfontana/publications/barrier-objects-dynamical-systems-bounded-organizations That was the constructivist lambda calculus paper. Bill Mckelvey extended to pi calculus On Sat, Apr 18, 2020, 12:36 AM David Eric Smith wrote: > Ve

Re: [FRIAM] anthropological observations

Very good Nick. You see, unfortunately it appears that the reason I was put on Earth was to be the evangelist of distributional thinking. In one of Walter Fontana’s early papers, which I probably saw in 1998, he opened with a quote “Ever focused on objects, we something something something…(so

Re: [FRIAM] anthropological observations

Dear Cranky Eric, When Peirce writes, countering determinism, that “everything is just about as random as it could be” he is referring to contingencies amongst events, I think. At the risk of quoting myself: Considering all the events that are going on at any one moment -- the ticking

Re: [FRIAM] anthropological observations

And just in case it's not obvious, I enjoy these conversations, too ... however much of a jerk I may seem. They often provide a much needed break from whatever useless toil I end up in. "Oh! There's some lovely filth down here!" On April 17, 2020 5:07:36 PM PDT, David Eric Smith wrote: > I enjo

Re: [FRIAM] anthropological observations

Cranky Nick, you really need to join a church. > Now, what most people wanted to know from Nate Silver is whether Clinton was > going to win the election. Nate constantly says that making such predictions > is, strictly speaking, not his job. As long as what happens falls within the > error o

Re: [FRIAM] anthropological observations

So, if you're serious about *your* attempt to model Nate Silver, then you would find something in your experience that *means* something similar to what Nate means. And jargonal "expected value" <=> vernacular "I expect" isn't that thing. Your last paragraph comes closer. But you chose to frame

Re: [FRIAM] anthropological observations

Glen, Well, I think that all thinking is metaphorical (as does Dave), but let that go. I agree that statements of the form "everything is X" really aren't awfully useful. I think an obsessively metaphorical thinker is one who has the arrogance to suppose that s/he has some familiar exp

Re: [FRIAM] anthropological observations

Nick writes: < I must be a determinist at heart because I instinctively believe that to say an event is random is to confess one’s ignorance, one’s laziness, or both. > Deterministic systems can behave in an apparently random fashion with tiny diff

Re: [FRIAM] anthropological observations

Again, though, you seem to be allowing your metaphor to run away with you. When someone who does quantitative modeling says "expected value", they do NOT mean what the layperson means when they say "I expect X". We can pick apart your statement and accuse you of an ambiguity fallacy if we want.

Re: [FRIAM] anthropological observations

< This conversation is reminding me of 538's constant reiteration that they actually accurately predicted Hillary's election in 2016. > Possibly of interest.. https://journals.jps.jp/doi/full/10.7566/JPSJ.88.061009 From: Friam on behalf of "thompnicks...@gmail.com" Reply-To: The Friday Mo

Re: [FRIAM] anthropological observations

Hi, everybody, This is Cranky-Nick, talking. This conversation is reminding me of 538's constant reiteration that they actually accurately predicted Hillary's election in 2016. It's just that the electoral college didn't play along. If expert X tells me that the expected value of var

Re: [FRIAM] The fundamental theory of physics

Thanks for the pointer to Sabine's retweet. The Quantum Bullshit Detector (https://twitter.com/BullshitQuantum) looks interesting. Already I've found an interesting rat hole to crawl down: https://twitter.com/jmchow/status/1242600531199234049 It highlights an important gray area bounded by tro

Re: [FRIAM] Master Question List for COVID-19 (caused by SARs-CoV-2) - mql_sars-cov-2_-_cleared_for_public_release_2020_04_14.pdf

I now live in the metro area of NYC near the epicenter of the pandemic in this country. Thank you for this factual digest! I will share it with my colleagues. Note: Despite the carnage, we still have a sense of humor https://www.billboard.com/articles/news/pride/9352829/randy-rainbow-andrew-cuomo-p