Frank put his prediction on the list, so I guess it is OK to add mine.
Last time I was 100% certain of my predictions. This time between 60-75 percent
certain.
Trump will win by roughly the same electoral college numbers as last time, with
minor changes, e.g. swapping Wisconsin for Minnesota. (
2020 8:26 AM
To: friam@redfish.com
Subject: [FRIAM] election eve
Frank put his prediction on the list, so I guess it is OK to add mine.
Last time I was 100% certain of my predictions. This time between 60-75 percent
certain.
Trump will win by roughly the same electoral college numbers as last
s-and-predictions/minnesota/
On 11/2/20 8:42 AM, Marcus Daniels wrote:
>
> -Original Message-
> From: Friam On Behalf Of Prof David West
> Sent: Monday, November 2, 2020 8:26 AM
> To: friam@redfish.com
> Subject: [FRIAM] election eve
>
> (Everyone is seeing Wisconsin as
On Behalf Of u?l? ???
Sent: Monday, November 2, 2020 1:03 PM
To: FriAM
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] election eve
What's happening in Minnesota?
https://electoral-vote.com/evp2020/Pres/Graphs/minnesota.html
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/minnesota/
ehalf Of u?l? ???
> Sent: Monday, November 2, 2020 1:03 PM
> To: FriAM
> Subject: Re: [FRIAM] election eve
>
> What's happening in Minnesota?
>
> https://electoral-vote.com/evp2020/Pres/Graphs/minnesota.html
> https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-fore
as Thompson
>> Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology
>> Clark University
>> thompnicks...@gmail.com
>> https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/
>>
>>
>>
>> -Original Message-
>> From: Friam On Behalf Of u?l? ???
>> Sent:
Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology
Clark University
thompnicks...@gmail.com
https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/
-Original Message-
From: Friam On Behalf Of u?l? ???
Sent: Monday, November 2, 2020 1:03 PM
To: FriAM
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] election eve
What's happeni
Ethology and Psychology
Clark University
thompnicks...@gmail.com
https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/
-Original Message-
From: Friam On Behalf Of u?l? ???
Sent: Monday, November 2, 2020 1:03 PM
To: FriAM
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] election eve
What's happening in Minnesota?
iday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] election eve
I’m not sure that Trump believes there is any chance the courts will help stop
counting the vote.
The other purpose for what he is doing is to create another grievance. Trump
thrives on grievances, and a few more will o
t; *To:* The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <
> friam@redfish.com>
> *Subject:* Re: [FRIAM] election eve
>
>
>
> I’m not sure that Trump believes there is any chance the courts will help
> stop counting the vote.
>
> The other purpose for what he is doi
Biden has got a 270 vs. 267 last time I checked, assuming he can’t take
Pennsylvania.
From: Friam On Behalf Of Gary Schiltz
Sent: Wednesday, November 4, 2020 8:37 AM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] election eve
Nick, I was rather wondering the same
Right. So both the guardian and nyt show called Biden: 227, Trump: 213 with
PA(20), NC(15), and GA(16) toward Trump and MI(16), WI(10), NV(6), and AZ(11)
toward Biden.
227+16+10+11+6 = 270
213+3+15+20+16 = 267
I don't think there's a reason to be optimistic ... cautiously or not.
Regardless of
Yeah, the main take home to me is the same as before: Almost half the country
is batshit crazy.
-Original Message-
From: Friam On Behalf Of u?l? ???
Sent: Wednesday, November 4, 2020 9:22 AM
To: friam@redfish.com
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] election eve
Right. So both the guardian and nyt
>From the Washington Post
WASHINGTON - The U.S. Postal Service turned down a federal judge’s order
late Tuesday afternoon to sweep mail processing facilities serving 15
states, saying instead it would stick to its own inspection schedule. The
judge’s order came after the agency disclosed that more
0 8:37 AM
> *To:* The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <
> friam@redfish.com>
> *Subject:* Re: [FRIAM] election eve
>
>
>
> Nick, I was rather wondering the same thing myself. Frank, please toss us
> a thread-thin lifeline to help buoy the spirits of us bleed
7 AM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group
mailto:friam@redfish.com>>
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] election eve
Nick, I was rather wondering the same thing myself. Frank, please toss us a
thread-thin lifeline to help buoy the spirits of us bleeding heart liberals
haha. Is your opti
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/ng-interactive/2020/nov/03/us-election-2020-live-results-donald-trump-joe-biden-who-won-presidential-republican-democrat
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/results-president.html
On 11/4/20 9:40 AM, Gary Schiltz wrote:
> What source indi
Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] election eve
Yeah, the main take home to me is the same as before: Almost half the country
is batshit crazy.
-Original Message-
From: Friam On Behalf Of u?l? ???
Sent: Wednesday, November 4, 2020 9:22 AM
To: friam@redfish.com
las Thompson
> Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology
> Clark University
> thompnicks...@gmail.com
> https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/
>
>
>
> -Original Message-
> From: Friam On Behalf Of Marcus Daniels
> Sent: Wednesday, November 4, 2020 1
m On Behalf Of Frank Wimberly
Sent: Wednesday, November 4, 2020 12:12 PM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] election eve
Nick,
See Glen's 270 to 267 estimate. Biden may still win either Georgia or
Pennsylvania or both because of the Democrat
One thing that confuses me is Trump being attributed 267 vs 268 EVs. But I
suppose it could be Maine, with it's split representation:
https://www.cnn.com/politics/live-news/election-results-and-news-11-04-20/h_f5ca6d24c85ac45e193bf0b1c9b1a2f6
On 11/4/20 10:12 AM, Frank Wimberly wrote:
> Nick,
>
hology and Psychology
> Clark University
> thompnicks...@gmail.com
> https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/
>
>
>
> -Original Message-
> From: Friam On Behalf Of Marcus Daniels
> Sent: Wednesday, November 4, 2020 11:24 AM
> To: The Friday Morning Applied Com
Coffee Group
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] election eve
" they cannot under stand why I am scared by Trump, any more than I could
understand why they were scared by Obama "
I know it's a bit of a tangent... but is that actually true?
I'm not sure I've ever found it overl
ng Applied Complexity Coffee Group <
> friam@redfish.com>
> *Subject:* Re: [FRIAM] election eve
>
>
>
> Nick,
>
>
>
> See Glen's 270 to 267 estimate. Biden may still win either Georgia or
> Pennsylvania or both because of the Democrat majority that is
Nick wrote:
< I know two trump supporters quite well. Mind you, we don't talk politics
that much. Both are owners of small businesses who have led the highly
regulated lives that folks must lead if they are going to make money in a
politically diverse community. Both [thought they] saw gains
alf Of *Eric Charles
*Sent:* Wednesday, November 4, 2020 12:18 PM
*To:* The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group
*Subject:* Re: [FRIAM] election eve
" they cannot under stand why I am scared by Trump, any more than I
could understand why they were scared by Obama "
I kn
Robert wrote:
< It's those with insight who must make the concessions. >
That’s certainly a point of view.
Marcus
- . -..-. . -. -.. -..-. .. ... -..-. . .-. .
FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam
un/subscribe http://redfish.com
out.
>>
>> Nick
>>
>> Nick
>>
>> Nicholas Thompson
>> Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology
>> Clark University
>> thompnicks...@gmail.com
>> https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/
>>
>>
>>
>> -Original M
t;>> cartels that dominated German politics thought they could "use" him. Look
>>> how that turned out.
>>>
>>> Nick
>>>
>>> Nick
>>>
>>> Nicholas Thompson
>>> Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology
/nthompson/
-Original Message-
From: Friam On Behalf Of Marcus Daniels
Sent: Wednesday, November 4, 2020 12:55 PM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] election eve
Nick wrote:
< I know two trump supporters quite well. Mind you, we don
du/nthompson/
From: Friam On Behalf Of Frank Wimberly
Sent: Wednesday, November 4, 2020 1:38 PM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] election eve
Thanks, Rog. He's right, Nick.
---
Frank C. Wimberly
140 Calle Ojo Feliz,
Santa Fe, NM 87505
505 670-
It got us to be the largest economy, democracy, and military on earth.Where
like, everyone wanted to come and live the dream.
How about, just for shits and grins, we give their kid a loaded weapon to play
with? Just to see what happens, you know.Could be interesting?
I think I'm n
I still think it's the projection/reduction from high dimensions to low that's
the problem. While I largely agree that it's batshit crazy to, e.g. for Howie
to run for President given the fate of every Green Party objective will suffer
dramatically under Trump, it's still an overzealous and irre
I appreciate this point of view. In 2016 it seems like there was a lot
of rhetoric about "vote in your own best self-interest" as a way to try
to increase turnout or focus on why any individual should take voting
seriously.
Working at LANL for 27 years I heard *way* too many people there voting
f
The version I have heard is "If you aren't liberal when you're young, you
don't have a heart. If you aren't conservative when you're old, you don't
have a brain."
On Wed, Nov 4, 2020 at 4:16 PM Steve Smith wrote:
> I appreciate this point of view. In 2016 it seems like there was a lot
> of rhet
:18 (GMT+01:00) To: friam@redfish.com Subject: Re: [FRIAM] election
eve One thing that confuses me is Trump being attributed 267 vs 268 EVs. But I
suppose it could be Maine, with it's split
representation:https://www.cnn.com/politics/live-news/election-results-and-news-11-
It is easier to believe crazy things if you are decoupled from people that will
show you otherwise.
From: Friam On Behalf Of Frank Wimberly
Sent: Thursday, November 5, 2020 12:07 PM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] election eve
A large percentage of
Behalf Of *Frank Wimberly
> *Sent:* Thursday, November 5, 2020 12:07 PM
> *To:* The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <
> friam@redfish.com>
> *Subject:* Re: [FRIAM] election eve
>
>
>
> A large percentage of the variance between "us" and "the
trail.
From: Friam On Behalf Of George Duncan
Sent: Thursday, November 5, 2020 12:31 PM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] election eve
But now you can link online to those (even perhaps few) who will reinforce your
(perhaps crazy) views
George Duncan
From: Frank Wimberly
Date: 11/5/20 21:08 (GMT+01:00) To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity
Coffee Group Subject: Re: [FRIAM] election eve A large
percentage of the variance between "us" and "them" seems to be living in a city
vs living in the country. Not all
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] election eve
Do you have an idea why so many people have voted for Trump despite all he has
done? The cultural difference between the liberal urban centers and the
conservative countryside can not be the only reason.
Is it FoxNews propaganda, racism or another unknown factor
It would be a great way to actually learn things if, rather than deleting it,
it rejected it. So, you could formulate lots of assertions, toss them at the
machine and it would tell you which ones are crazy and which ones might be
closer to consensus truth. You might start with all politicians ar
alf Of u?l? ???
Sent: Thursday, November 5, 2020 1:54 PM
To: friam@redfish.com
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] election eve
It would be a great way to actually learn things if, rather than deleting it,
it rejected it. So, you could formulate lots of assertions, toss them at the
machine and it would tell you whic
a, racism or another unknown factor ?
>
>
> Original message
> From: Frank Wimberly
> Date: 11/5/20 21:08 (GMT+01:00)
> To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group
>
> Subject: Re: [FRIAM] election eve
>
> A large percentage of the variance between "
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