If you want to read a really, really depressing article on all this
read this one in Foreign Affairs:
Why Carbon Pricing Isn’t Working
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/world/2018-06-14/why-carbon-pricing-isnt-working
It isn't so much the specifics of carbon pricing.
It's the harsh
On 7/26/2018 4:22 PM, valdis.kletni...@vt.edu wrote:
Let's run the math. 1mm/additional per year. So 1 the first year, 2 aditional
the second, ... and the century year then adds 100mm or 4 inches*by itself*.
But we need to add years 1 to 99's contributions too...
sum(1..100) = 101 * 50 or 5050m
All:
Let's kindly kill off the portions of this thread that have absolutely
nothing to do with running a network. Political rants, plate tectonics,
Math 101, and debating whether or not climate change is a thing really
have no place on this list / in this context.
Thank you
jms
On Thu, 26 Jul 2018 20:48:58 -, "Naslund, Steve" said:
> Don't panic though about the 70 meter rise though. According to this article
> by National Geographic, it would take around 5000 years to melt that much ice
> even assuming the current temperature rise continues.
Was that article from b
It might be worth noting that with Plate Tectonics, the shoreline
itself is not exactly locked in place either. Particularly on the West
Coast in ring of fire territory. Come the predicted Cascadia Fault
earthquake, the landing stations are going to first be shaken by the
EQ, then swamped by a majo
Don't panic though about the 70 meter rise though. According to this article
by National Geographic, it would take around 5000 years to melt that much ice
even assuming the current temperature rise continues.
Steven Naslund
Chicago IL
>Here is a simple question to answer while you are at it.
On 07/26/2018 10:48 AM, William Herrin wrote:
> Submarine cable is needed for deeper water (higher pressures) with
> more armor against damage since it's just laying on the seafloor
> exposed to everything that happens by.
Let's be specific: everything with teeth that happens by.
Here is a simple question to answer while you are at it. Once the arctic ice
and glaciers melt, what will cause the ocean levels to continue to rise at this
incredible rate? The total estimate for sea level rise would be 70 meters if
absolutely all ice on the face of the Earth melted. A radic
On 07/26/2018 10:31 AM, Chris Boyd wrote:
> 162.400
> 162.425
> 162.450
> 162.475
> 162.500
> 162.525
> 162.550
>
> That’s about 1.85 meter wavelength, so a quarter wave antenna would
> be pretty large. I’m sure the RF engineers can come up with a way to
> listen effectively without a huge antenn
Pretty hard to accept 198 inches since NASA's own data shows no more than 250mm
or 9.4 inches since 1888. You would have to assume there are no balancing
factors. If the earth gets warmer then there is also more evaporation of the
oceans which causes more rainfall which helps moderate temperat
On Thu, 26 Jul 2018 16:07:56 -0400, Rob McEwen said:
> On 7/26/2018 3:49 PM, valdis.kletni...@vt.edu wrote:
> > Compound interest is a bitch.
>> it took ~40 years or so to get to that 1mm increase (to be extra clear,
>> this is a reported increase over how much oceans are rising now compared
>> to
There are lots of ways to construct a graph to look scary. Just try to redraw
that graph as the change in overall depth of the ocean. It would be so flat as
to be useless. Wikipedia (might be right or not) says the average depth of the
ocean is 3,688 meters or 12,100 feet. If we take that an
On Thu, 26 Jul 2018, valdis.kletni...@vt.edu wrote:
Do those use a frequency band that's suitable for cellphones to monitor (antenna
size, power, etc)? Because your best chance of getting my attention in an
emergency
is to make my phone start shrieking.
15 years ago (way back in 2003), one of
On 7/26/2018 3:49 PM, valdis.kletni...@vt.edu wrote:
On Thu, 26 Jul 2018 15:39:51 -0400, Rob McEwen said:
JUST BARELY curve upwards. So I dug into THEIR actual data - and even
THEIR data shows something like a cumulative 1mm/year increase - and -
it took ~40 years or so to get to that 1mm incre
And just to be abundantly clear. I am not denying climate change and I am all
for eliminating pollution and our impact on the planet in general. However I
firmly believe that there will be further climate change regardless of what
humans do. That is the cycle of the planet so far and way befo
On Thu, 26 Jul 2018 19:43:37 -, "Naslund, Steve" said:
> As an engineer I would like to know how we separate what would be happening
> without us from what effect we are having.
Well, when all previous data shows temperature changes on the order of degrees
per millenium (absent major incidents
On Thu, 26 Jul 2018 15:39:51 -0400, Rob McEwen said:
> JUST BARELY curve upwards. So I dug into THEIR actual data - and even
> THEIR data shows something like a cumulative 1mm/year increase - and -
> it took ~40 years or so to get to that 1mm increase (to be extra clear,
> this is a reported incre
I agree with this. I suppose you could take tons of measurements and average
them out to be pretty accurate but I am not sure how you would account for
tidal gravitational effects which vary all the time. Seems like the precision
claimed would be really hard to pull off without knowing exactly
Well, the problem might be that I am an old guy and remember very well in the
70s when the "scientific community" screamed at us about the coming ice age.
Next, we had global warming. Now we just call it climate change because we
just don't know which way it's going to go. Those same anthropo
On 7/26/2018 1:32 PM, Rod Beck wrote:
You are simply wrong. The sea level is rising at an increasing rate. The
average sea level will go up by 30 centimeters to 1 meter by 2100. And of
course, the storm surge will increase by a multiple of that. Sources: NOAA.
Looking at the SAME sources (NOA
In 2000 the network runs on completely different infrastructure than it did in
1900 (what little network existed). By 2100 I am pretty sure we will be on
different infrastructure by then. Are you saying there will be no changes in
network topology to account for that? By 2100 neither you or I
On July 26, 2018 at 16:56 snasl...@medline.com (Naslund, Steve) wrote:
>
> Since we have been able to cope with train derailments, backhoes, forest
> fires, traffic accidents, etc, I am pretty confident that the networks will
> keep up with the lightning fast 1/8" per year rise in sea leve
On Thu, Jul 26, 2018 at 2:00 PM, Chris Adams wrote:
> Once upon a time, William Herrin said:
>> On Thu, Jul 26, 2018 at 12:58 PM, Jason Kuehl
>> wrote:
>> > Science https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/sea-level/
>>
>> "The first graph tracks the change in sea level since 1993 as observed
>> by
On Thu, 26 Jul 2018, Brian Kantor wrote:
I can see my way clear to supporting this bill ONLY if it ALSO
proposes to enhance the liabilities for officials of agencies
who issue a false or disproportionate alert.
Section 5 of the proposed bill is about emergency alert best practices.
That includ
Once upon a time, Jameson, Daniel said:
> Its not satellite data, it's the exact same data-set that NOAA provides for
> ocean levels; The data is from tidal sensors; the data is relayed via
> satellite so... technically ;).
No, you are wrong. Did you read any of the provided links? It is
ac
Its not satellite data, it's the exact same data-set that NOAA provides for
ocean levels; The data is from tidal sensors; the data is relayed via
satellite so... technically ;). It's kind of funny the data in the table, vs
the chart-data presented, some .orgs say 80mm, some say 60mm all depe
On Thu, 26 Jul 2018, Chris Adams wrote:
My biggest concern is them making such alerts mandatory. At a minimum
they should be opt-out; a one-time notice during setup (or when the
functionality is added) to allow opt-in would be better IMHO.
That's a reason to get involved early, when everything
On Thu, Jul 26, 2018 at 12:31:31PM -0500, Chris Boyd wrote:
> That’s about 1.85 meter wavelength, so a quarter wave antenna would be pretty
> large. I’m sure the RF engineers can come up with a way to listen
> effectively without a huge antenna.
For 162Mhz, a 1/4 wave antenna would have a vert
Once upon a time, William Herrin said:
> On Thu, Jul 26, 2018 at 12:58 PM, Jason Kuehl wrote:
> > Science https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/sea-level/
>
> "The first graph tracks the change in sea level since 1993 as observed
> by satellites."
>
> I *really* want to understand the technology
On 7/26/18 9:59 AM, Naslund, Steve wrote:
Almost everyone with a cell phone gets real time alerts too. I am not sure how
many more ways we can make people aware of things around them. Seems like yet
another government mandate to dictate what a device must do.
People in tornado areas seem to
On Thu, 26 Jul 2018, Seth Mattinen wrote:
On 7/26/18 9:51 AM, Aaron C. de Bruyn via NANOG wrote:
Capitalist solution: Build yet another IoT device that just does emergency
alerting.
People in tornado areas seem to be the most aware that alert radios already
exist. No internet access required.
On Thu, Jul 26, 2018 at 1:06 PM, Rod Beck
wrote:
> only submarine cable can handle long term immersion
Any gel-core direct burial cable can handle long-term shallow water
immersion. Steve is correct: the fiber in many manholes are underwater
until the next time someone needs to climb down and mak
Once upon a time, valdis.kletni...@vt.edu said:
> Do those use a frequency band that's suitable for cellphones to monitor
> (antenna
> size, power, etc)? Because your best chance of getting my attention in an
> emergency
> is to make my phone start shrieking.
NOAA Weather Radio frequencies are
Steve,
You are simply wrong. The sea level is rising at an increasing rate. The
average sea level will go up by 30 centimeters to 1 meter by 2100. And of
course, the storm surge will increase by a multiple of that.
Sources: NOAA.
It means access networks along the two coasts will be increas
> On Jul 26, 2018, at 12:09 PM, valdis.kletni...@vt.edu wrote:
>
> Do those use a frequency band that's suitable for cellphones to monitor
> (antenna
> size, power, etc)? Because your best chance of getting my attention in an
> emergency
> is to make my phone start shrieking.
VHF, on 7 frequ
No.
NWR requires a special radio receiver or scanner capable of picking up
the signal. Broadcasts are found in the VHF public service band at these
seven frequencies (MHz):
162.400
162.425
162.450
162.475
162.500
162.525
162.550
Although, you can buy a wind-up weather radio receiver for $20
If you live near a coast, you are going to experience bigger storms and loss of
power more often than someone that lives inland. If you live in the Himalayas
you are going to get more snow and cold weather. Not my problem if you like
your beach front property. However I have not seen any majo
On Thu, Jul 26, 2018 at 12:58 PM, Jason Kuehl wrote:
> Science https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/sea-level/
"The first graph tracks the change in sea level since 1993 as observed
by satellites."
I *really* want to understand the technology that lets a satellite
hundreds of miles in the sky de
Again, the original argument was about rising ocean levels not all causes of
floods. Are floods a threat, yep but not as much as it used to be before
fiber. Is the rise of ocean levels by 10” per century the cause of all floods,
no its not.
Steven Naslund
Chicago IL
>From: Rod Beck [mailto:
But the reality is that if you get bigger storm surges, your Internet access
will be knocked. You will get loss of power and even if the backbone holds up,
the access networks will not. Every time we get a severe flood here in
Budapest, power is knocked out and we are down hard. The general popu
Don't know but the backbone of the Internet is not running on it. Also, a
hurricane is not the same as a rise in sea level at less than 10" per century
which was the threat described here. There are all kinds of floods for reasons
other than rising sea levels.
Steven Naslund
Chicago IL
>
Easy way to settle it. Look at Hurricane Sandy and Katrina. If they had no
effect on terrestrial cables, then this is probably a misplaced concern.
- R.
From: Naslund, Steve
Sent: Thursday, July 26, 2018 7:10 PM
To: Rod Beck; nanog@nanog.org
Subject: RE: Risin
Once upon a time, Sean Donelan said:
> After wildfires killed 40+ people in northern California last fall,
> I asked if Amazon and Google had any plans to include emergency
> alerts in their smart speaker/intelligent assistant products. Smart
> speakers seem like a way to alert people to imminent
That is true of all science today, Stephen. That is a particularly bad argument
on your part. Virtually all science depends on grants and academic and
government financing. So you are invoking conspiracy theories. Good work.
From: NANOG on behalf of Stephen Sat
I know of tons of manholes that are continuously full of water every time I
have been out to them, I am pretty sure those cables have dealt with the
immersion for quite a number of years.
Steven Naslund
Chicago IL
>I don't have a strong feeling on this matter, but it is not the average
>incr
On Thu, 26 Jul 2018 09:54:10 -0700, Seth Mattinen said:
> People in tornado areas seem to be the most aware that alert radios
> already exist. No internet access required.
Do those use a frequency band that's suitable for cellphones to monitor (antenna
size, power, etc)? Because your best chance
On Thu, 26 Jul 2018 16:56:08 -, "Naslund, Steve" said:
> Since we have been able to cope with train derailments, backhoes, forest
> fires, traffic accidents, etc, I am pretty confident that the networks will
> keep up with the lightning fast 1/8" per year rise in sea level.
Have they finished
> On Jul 26, 2018, at 11:54 AM, Seth Mattinen wrote:
>
> People in tornado areas seem to be the most aware that alert radios already
> exist. No internet access required.
For those interested in more info, http://www.nws.noaa.gov/nwr/
Pretty popular service in rural Texas.
—Chris
So, I accept the data. Going back to 1880 I will be generous and say that you
have a 250 mm rise in sea level (which is about 10 inches for us Imperial
types). I think we will probably be ready to outrun that problem. Let's get
back to real network threats like BGP Hijacking which can wipe yo
I don't have a strong feeling on this matter, but it is not the average
increase that matters. Every small increase in average has a multiplier effect
on storm surge.
http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2017/10/23/1715895114.
Nonetheless, my guess is that the real threat is to general property c
BTW, I have installed thousands of miles of fiber and been submerged in plenty
of manholes over the years. If you have been in a manhole in the spring you
would know what a non-event you are talking about here. A lot of your Internet
is under water a lot of the time anyway (not even counting a
On 07/26/2018 09:48 AM, Rod Beck wrote:
> Unfortunately, the science community disagrees with Rob and you.
You mean the community that lives or dies on whether they get grant
money? And the way to get grant money is to justify why they could be
fed MORE money. Can you imagine how the "science co
Almost everyone with a cell phone gets real time alerts too. I am not sure how
many more ways we can make people aware of things around them. Seems like yet
another government mandate to dictate what a device must do.
>People in tornado areas seem to be the most aware that alert radios
>alrea
Science https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/sea-level/
Give the data yourself.
On Thu, Jul 26, 2018 at 12:50 PM Rod Beck
wrote:
> Unfortunately, the science community disagrees with Rob and you.
>
>
> Have a great day, big guy.
>
>
> Regards,
>
>
> Roderick.
>
>
> _
Since we have been able to cope with train derailments, backhoes, forest fires,
traffic accidents, etc, I am pretty confident that the networks will keep up
with the lightning fast 1/8" per year rise in sea level.
Steven Naslund
Chicago IL
On 7/26/18 9:51 AM, Aaron C. de Bruyn via NANOG wrote:
Capitalist solution: Build yet another IoT device that just does emergency
alerting.
People in tornado areas seem to be the most aware that alert radios
already exist. No internet access required.
On Thu, Jul 26, 2018 at 9:14 AM Sean Donelan wrote:
> Probably not a surprise, the product managers at Amazon and Google didn't
> see a benefit. Instead of emergency alerts, instead the product
> improvement roadmap priority is on package tracking and delivery alerts :-)
>
I'm not aware of a pu
Unfortunately, the science community disagrees with Rob and you.
Have a great day, big guy.
Regards,
Roderick.
From: Mel Beckman
Sent: Thursday, July 26, 2018 6:16 PM
To: Rod Beck
Cc: Rob McEwen; nanog@nanog.org
Subject: Re: Rising sea levels are going to m
I can see my way clear to supporting this bill ONLY if it ALSO
proposes to enhance the liabilities for officials of agencies
who issue a false or disproportionate alert.
- Brian
On Thu, Jul 26, 2018 at 12:11:36PM -0400, Sean Donelan wrote:
> Also shouldn't be a surprise. Senator Schatz and
Well, Rod, you just made a claim with zero support, while Rob provided accurate
citations proving every one of his statements.
But it’s not wasting our time with the Fiber Optic Networks Are Doomed by Sea
Level Rise society :)
See what I did there? I brought the discussion back to the original
After wildfires killed 40+ people in northern California last fall, I
asked if Amazon and Google had any plans to include emergency alerts
in their smart speaker/intelligent assistant products. Smart speakers
seem like a way to alert people to imminent life-threatening danger during
the night
Well, Rob, you are wrong on almost every point. But it is not wasting our time
with the Flat Earth society.
Regards,
Roderick.
From: NANOG on behalf of Rob McEwen
Sent: Monday, July 23, 2018 4:52 AM
To: nanog@nanog.org
Subject: Re: Rising sea levels are go
Erik, we can help. Please contact me offlist.
Anne
Anne P. Mitchell,
Attorney at Law
CEO/President,
SuretyMail Email Reputation Certification and Inbox Delivery Assistance
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