Hey,

Great thread - there was a good article in the Saturday SMH business
section (page 8). If anyone can track it down and scan it, would be
awesome.

Mike


On Feb 22, 10:51 pm, Matthew Ho <matt.h...@gmail.com> wrote:
> Many organisations are banking on the paid subscription model - from
> music, news, movies etc..whether its the answer is another question.
> Clay Shirky understands this better than most people. He explains the
> paid content model, comparing music subscription vs news subscription
> model here:
>
> http://www.shirky.com/weblog/2009/03/why-itunes-is-not-a-workable-mod...
>
> I have also been thinking about the music subscription model today.
> Apple has a whole ecosystem supporting the music experience. People
> will pay for this convenience and experience.
>
> In terms of music, lets use Spotify as an example since they are most
> likely to extract value from the rest of the value chain. Is Spotify
> profitable?
>
> Spotify has 10million users. News articles suggest they have approx
> 650,000 paying subscribers (~ 1 in 20 paying).
>
> http://eu.techcrunch.com/2010/09/15/spotify-10-million/http://gigaom.com/2010/11/22/spotify-2010-revenues/
>
> MUSIC REVENUES
>
> 90% of users pay $10 Euros/month = $120 Euros yearly
> 10% of users pay $5 Euros/month = $60 Euros yearly
>
> On a revenue basis, Spotify generated $74m Euros last year on music
> subscriptions alone.
>
> ADVERTISING + "VALUE CHAIN" REVENUES
>
> Gigaom reckons that Spotify made $58m in advertising. I take this with
> a pound of salt cause I don't see how this could be true. My estimates
> below are based on the low side.
>
> I project the following revenue streams:
>
> - Advertising (PPC): 10m users x 1% of users click on ads x $0.02 x
> 365 days = $730k/year
>
> - Ticket sales: $5 commission x 10m users x 1% purchasing yearly =
> $500k/year. Using the average Posse commission prices.
>
> - Merchandise: $20 tshirt x 10% commission x 10m users x 1% purchasing
> yearly = $200k/year
>
> That's roughly $76m in revenue.
>
> COSTS
>
> The only cost that's public is music royalties at $30m. That leaves
> $46m on table.
>
> I wouldn't think the operating cost of a lean startup business would
> be any more than 40% of remaining revenues (assuming 20 staff, low
> overheads). Opex = $18m.
>
> Total profit is = 76m - 30m - 18m = $28m profit.
>
> So in short, their music subscription model is profitable.
>
> I'm sure they'll have other revenue streams from deals with mobile
> companies. I think that's where the real value is for Spotify - the
> mobile apps. People will subscribe to this. They probably need to get
> it to 10% - 20% of paying users (currently at 5%). Their push into the
> US is more likely to build a barrier to competition cause it will
> prevent other people from moving in.
>
> On Feb 21, 11:33 pm, Edwin Onggo <edwin.on...@gmail.com> wrote:
>
>
>
> > This might sound a little funny but I've never been picked apart so
> > quickly on a forum and enjoyed it so much.
>
> > Completely agree with Matt Ho that digital content is difficult to
> > monetise. My original idea was to employ the Groupon model to live
> > gigs but couldn't think of a scalable model where event management
> > didn't have to come into play.
>
> > The localised Myspace meets Tumblr concept was envisioned to be that
> > bridging gap for Aussie artists to reach TripleJ status and more than
> > likely I was to employ a freemium model (premium templates, listings
> > for example). By grouping communities by location I think it carries
> > benefits which allows collaborating with similar artists to make a gig
> > possible and also to connect with a local fan base. Music for the most
> > part is free so this content (packaged up nicely and shared) would
> > attract the users. On a more alarming side note, I recently discovered
> > Bandpage by RootMusic which is a Facebook app solving many of the
> > problems I identified (Can't believe I didn't discover this one
> > earlier).
>
> > I've been watching Posse for a little while now and take my hat off to
> > what you guys are achieving. A brilliant Clickbank-for-events model
> > with an exciting future ahead. Being immersed in the space Rob, I'm
> > curious as to what areas of the value chain you believe are still
> > untouched? Spotify just raised 100m from DST as well - I invite anyone
> > to comment on whether they think the subscription model is the answer
> > to the digital content dilemma?

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