Charles Haynes wrote:
On Mon, Jun 16, 2008 at 6:26 PM, Perry E. Metzger <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
The same is happening to Italy and many other first world countries.
I disagree. I believe the situation is qualitatively different in
Japan (Jim please feel free to chime in!)
It's true that the birthrate is below replacement level in other
countries, but I believe that Japan is both further along,
Yes. Population experts are having a field day studying Japan right now.
A common expression in this context is that the Japanese population will
"fall over a cliff" to describe how fast the decline is expected in
upcoming decades. At least I'll have more room on the trains, though. :)
and more
importantly an order of magnitude more xenophobic than other countries
facing that situation.
Yes. But this may -- gigantic may -- be changing. The younger people are
different and more open minded, but change here is slow.
I agree with you that the situation will change radically, but Shiv is
also right in that the situation in other countries will change mostly
by swelling immigrant populations growing to replace (and become!) the
shrinking population of descendants of previous generations of
residents.
I would agree with that.
I do not see that happening in Japan. I could see a smaller and
smaller population of citizens eventually ruling a large population of
resident aliens, but not granting them citizenship, nor much political
control.
That's the trend, but I would question the "large population of resident
aliens" part. There are proposals to both increase immigration and to
grant citizenship to long term resident foreigners. One proposal being
discussed by the govt types is to let the foreign population increase to
10% over the next 50 years. Like I said, change is slow here. :)
Currently, the foreign population is around 2% and the majority of that
is Chinese. I doubt the foreign population will rise rapidly to become
large unless there is a revolution or a depression or other event to
precipitate such a change. I think we are headed to a 60 million
population in Japan (half what it is now) way before they consider
dramatically increasing immigration. It's just my gut feeling based on
current attitudes.
The root cause of the death of Japan is only partially based on
restrictive immigration, though. There are many reasons, obviously, but
one big factor is the truly idiotic work culture in Tokyo, which utterly
destroys families. However, many young people are rejecting this now, so
this may change, too. I also think that the rise of India and China will
wake up the Japanese sooner or later (probably later), but most
observers feel that the population will be reduced substantially before
change is implemented.
Jim
--
http://blogs.sun.com/jimgris/
