The moment of truth for Iraq
Will Saddam Hussein's forces stand and fight, or bow to
the imperial might of the U.S. and Britain?
The fearsome Sudanese nationalist leader known as
the "Mahdi" was a dire threat to his own nation, the neighbouring Anglo-Egyptian
Sudan, Egypt and the entire Christian world, proclaimed Britain's Imperial
government. The Mahdi's Dervish army had taken Khartoum by storm and killed the
saintly Sir Charles "Chinese" Gordon, British sirdar, or proconsul, of the
Anglo-Egyptian Sudan.
So the British Empire sent a "coalition" army of
white troops and Egyptian native units up the Nile under the command of Lord
Kitchener with orders to crush the Mahdi before his calls for freedom from
British imperial rule for Muslim peoples might infect all Africa. The Dervishes
mounted the first major Islamic resistance against European colonial occupation.
On Sept. 2, 1898, the British Army met the Dervish army outside Khartoum
at Omdurmam. In spite of fanatical bravery by the Dervish cavalry and Nilotic
tribesmen popularized by Rudyard Kipling as "Fuzzy-Wuzzies," their spears and
broadswords were useless against Britain's field artillery and Maxim guns
(machineguns), which mowed down the oncoming waves of cavalry. The Dervishes
lost 10,000 dead and 16,000 wounded. British losses were 41 dead, 382 wounded.
The modern age of industrial imperialism had dawned.
The British poet,
Hillaire Beloc, summed it up well:
Whatever happens we have got
the Maxim gun and they have not.
Now, the newest Islamic
bogeyman to threaten the West's colonial interests in the Mideast, Iraq's Saddam
Hussein, is about to meet his fate as once again another imperial army, this
time of U.S., British and Australian troops, marches up the Tigris and Euphrates
valleys to lay fire and sword upon Baghdad.
The U.S.-British imperial
forces are expected to encounter little resistance until they plunge into
downtown Basra, or reach Nasariyah on the Tigris, both this weekend. If Iraq's
three divisions in the southern region fail to stoutly defend their positions,
it will be shown as a collapse of military morale by the regular army. If the
Iraqi Army fails to defend Amara and Kut on the Euphrates, or fight for the Shia
cities of Kerbala and Najaf, this will mean the road to Baghdad is wide open.
Without major resistance, vanguards of the U.S. 3rd Infantry Division and Marine
Expeditionary force should have reached Baghdad's outskirts by late yesterday or
early this morning.
Secret front
Meanwhile, a top secret
front has been opened due west of Baghdad. U.S. and British forces seized the
huge H-3 air base and the small H-2 base, both built when Britain was colonial
ruler of Iraq. Light armour - notably the U.S. Army's new Striker wheeled
vehicles - will be airlifted in or inserted from Jordan and used to mount a
brigade-sized dash 140 miles east down the main desert road to Baghdad. H-3
could also be quickly turned into a base for U.S. air operations.
In the
north, the U.S. 101st Airborne Division has dropped around the oil cities of
Kirkuk and Mosul, both with good airfields, to prevent Turkish troops from
advancing south and seizing the fields, one of the great prizes in George Bush's
war. Light mobile forces can then be airlifted in to begin a southward race for
Baghdad. Iraq's six divisions in the north are unlikely to put up much of a
fight, bereft as they are of any air cover and attacked on all sides by U.S.
forces and Kurdish irregulars.
By early this week, the moment of truth
should be reached. Will Iraq's best troops - Republican Guards and assorted
security units - defend the two concentric rings of fortified positions drawn
around Baghdad, a city of five million? Will President Hussein make good his vow
to turn the Arab World's second city into a Stalingrad?
Psychological
warfare
As of this writing, it is impossible to determine if the
Iraqis will fight, or succumb to a long, intensive U.S. psychological warfare
campaign to shake the loyalty of the regime's troops and provoke an army coup,
mass defections and surrenders.
If Iraqi forces do indeed fail to resist
with vigour, and begin collapsing, the U.S. may be unable to deploy many new
high-tech shock weapons it planned to use in the war. Iraq was to have been the
test lab for many new, 21st century military technologies. The Pentagon will be
disappointed, but there's always Iran or Syria, both of which are being named
next priority targets by the group of Bush administration hard-liners linked
with Israel's right-wing Likud party. PM Ariel Sharon of Israel recently called
on the U.S. to "march on Tehran" the day after Baghdad is occupied.
As
of now, Saddam Hussein's days appear to be numbered. He has weeks, at most. The
Imperial forces may have no more trouble reaching Baghdad than Lord Kitchener
did taking Khartoum. The conflict between 286 million Americans and 22 million
Iraqis, half of whom are in revolt against their own government, is a war
between a mastodon and a mouse, with but one conclusion.
Iraqis may
still fight hard around Baghdad and from other urban areas. But the outcome of
this second imperial war of the 21st century (Afghanistan was the first), is
certain. After all, the U.S. has the Maxim gun, and the Iraqis have not. And
that, poet Belloc noted, is the might that makes right.
Eric can be reached by e-mail at [EMAIL PROTECTED].
Letters to the editor should be sent to [EMAIL PROTECTED] or visit his home page.
http://www.canoe.ca/Columnists/margolis_mar23.html
