In reply to a few previous comments:

AIXI and Solomonoff induction both use infinite computer power
and thus clearly are not practical in any sense.  AIXI(tl) is finite
but not really much better as the computation time is still out
of this universe. This much I think we all agree on.

Calling them "useless" however seems a bit harsh to me.  For one,
they can be used as theoretical models of how a super intelligence
can and cannot behave.  Thus, even if they don't have a practical
use, they can still be useful theoretically.  Currently there is nothing
else that I know of that allows one to study the properties of such
a powerful learning machine theoretically.

Another point is that predicting the future is a risky business.
There have been many areas of pure math that did not have any
practical use for many many years, until somebody discovered
that the math turned out to be useful for some strange thing in
particle physics or something.  Maybe in 20 years some really
smart person will do something strange with AIXI, perhaps by
modifying it in some unexpected way and all of a sudden they
start to get results of large practical significance.

I don't know, maybe.  In any case, I wouldn't totally rule out
somebody building on these ideas to do something useful in
the future.  I can't really see how they would do it, and the
results I've proven about prediction systems place some clear
constraints what is possible in this direction.  Perhaps something
like a totally new kind of complexity theory?

In the case of Solomonoff induction, various statistical methods
such as maximum likelihood, maximum entropy and minimum
description length can all be derived from Solomonoff induction
by approximating it in some way.  Historically that's is not what
happened, however the point is that if you took Solomonoff
induction and tried to approximate it in various reasonable ways
then you end up with genuinely practical statistical methods.
Of course these new methods lose the really amazing power that
Solomonoff induction has, but you couldn't claim that they are not
useful.

It was hoped that with AIXI something similar would be possible.
So far that hasn't happened.  Again, the truly amazing power of
AIXI would be lost in this approximation process, however perhaps
a still useful algorithm could result?  Currently the best result in
this direction is a simple repeated matrix playing game that is
somewhat AIXIish in a limited way in this limited domain.  Doing
something more ambitious seems to be very difficult, but who
knows, perhaps one day somebody will work something out.

We will only know for sure whether AIXI theory was useful or
not when we can look back 1000 years from now.

Shane

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