On May 29, 2007, at 7:03 PM, Keith Elis wrote:
I understand that you value intelligence and capability, but I can't
see
my way to the destruction of humanity from there.
I was quite careful to say that that was not what I would choose.
The existence of superintelligence (a fact of the question), suggests
the universe permits the possibility that each of the billions of
humans
could potentially become a superintelligence.
What does that mean, really? For a human today to become a
superintelligence is for that human to become in many ways not at all
themselves. Their entire brain and nervous system would be likely to
be replaced. Their psychology would shift away ever faster from
anything we consider normal human psychology and concerns. Their view
of everything would change beyond recognition. They would most likely
upload at some point and have a body or bodies only when it suited
tasks of the moment or some desire. It is very questionable what
portion of anything most of us consider part of individual identity
would survive. Yes, it is possible than any old human might
eventually become such. But then again it is possible that a cat or
a dog might become a god too. Does that possibility that a person
may become nearly utterly different from his or her self, really
inform the conversation? Sometimes I think it does. Looking at
everyone as a potential immortal is a very ennobling and morally
uplifting point of view.
There is some unique point in the space of moral calculations where
the
potential existence of billions of superintelligences outweighs the
current existence of one. Not knowing where this point lies, I have to
generate my best guess.
This is like saying the the potential existence of an embryo outweighs
the actual existence of the woman whose womb contains it. It is a
spurious argument about hypotheticals being of equal weight to
actualities. Perhaps you would like to loan me ten million on the
strength of my earnings as a hypothetical future
superintelligence. :-) Once I am a superintelligence I will pay you
back a million-fold.
Let's assume, knowing it's possible, that the path from human to
superintelligence is ridiculously hard, almost indistinguishable from
impossible. Maybe each human has .0000001 probability of transcension.
With 6 billion humans, that is 600 superintelligences that will
eventually come to exist. Ceteris paribus, that's 600 times the
intelligence and capability existing currently.
That is not the way it works. You can't just multiply it out like
that.
- samantha
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