Every speculation on this board about the nature of future AGI's has been
pure fantasy. Even those which try to dress themselves up in some semblance
of scientific reasoning. All this speculation, for example, about the
friendliness and emotions of future AGI's has been non-sense - and often
from surprisingly intelligent people.
Why? Because until we have a machine that even begins to qualify as an AGI -
that has the LEAST higher adaptivity - until IOW AGI's EXIST- we can't begin
seriously to predict how they will evolve, let alone whether they will "take
off." And until we've seen a machine that actually has functioning emotions
and what purpose they serve, ditto we can't predict their future emotions.
So how can you cure yourself if you have this apparently incorrigible need
to produce speculative fantasies with no scientific basis in reality
whatsoever?
I suggest : first speculate about the following:
what will be the next stage of HUMAN evolution? What will be the next
significant advance in the form of the human species - as significant, say,
as the advance from apes, or - ok - some earlier form like Neanderthals?
Hey, if you are prepared to speculate about fabulous future AGI's,
predicting that relatively small evolutionary advance shouldn't be too hard.
But I suggest that if you do think about future human evolution your mind
will start clamming up. Why? Because you will have a sense of physical/
evolutionary constraints (unlike AGI where people seem to have zero sense of
technological constraints), - an implicit recognition that any future human
form will have to evolve from the present form - and to make predictions,
you will have to explain how. And you will know that anything you say may
only serve to make an ass of yourself. So any prediction you make will have
to have SOME basis in reality and not just in science fiction. The same
should be true here.
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