--- "Eric B. Ramsay" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > If I understand what I have read in this thread so far, there is Ben on the > one hand suggesting $10 mil. with 10-30 people in 3 to 10 years and on the > other there is Matt saying $1quadrillion, using a billion brains in 30 > years. I don't believe I have ever seen such a divergence of opinion before > on what is required for a technological breakthrough (unless people are not > being serious and I am being naive). I suppose this sort of non-consensus > on such a scale could be part of investor reticence.
I am serious about the $1 quadrillion price tag, which is the low end of my estimate. The value of the Internet is now in the tens of trillions and doubling every few years. The value of AGI will be a very large fraction of the world economy, currently US $66 trillion per year and growing at 5% per year. Of course what I imagine emerging from the Internet bears little resemblance to Novamente. It is simply too big to invest in directly, but it will present many opportunities. -- Matt Mahoney, [EMAIL PROTECTED] ------------------------------------------- singularity Archives: http://www.listbox.com/member/archive/11983/=now RSS Feed: http://www.listbox.com/member/archive/rss/11983/ Modify Your Subscription: http://www.listbox.com/member/?member_id=4007604&id_secret=98631122-712fa4 Powered by Listbox: http://www.listbox.com
