Sure, but Matt is also suggesting that his path is the most viable and so from the point of view of an investor, he/she is faced with very divergent opinions on the type of resources needed to get to the AGI expeditiously. It's far easier to understand wide price swings in a spaceship to get from here to Mars (or wherever) depending on how extravagantly you want to travel but if you define the problem as "just get there", I am confident the costs will not be different by a factor of 100 million.
Eric B. Ramsay Ben Goertzel <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: Well, Matt and I are talking about building totally different kinds of systems... I believe the system he wants to build would cost a huge amount ... but I don't think it's the most interesting sorta thing to build ... A decent analogue would be spaceships. All sorts of designs exist, some orders of magnitude more complex and expensive than others. It's more practical to build the cheaper ones, esp. when they're also more powerful ;-p ben On Tue, Apr 8, 2008 at 10:56 PM, Eric B. Ramsay wrote: > If I understand what I have read in this thread so far, there is Ben on the > one hand suggesting $10 mil. with 10-30 people in 3 to 10 years and on the > other there is Matt saying $1quadrillion, using a billion brains in 30 > years. I don't believe I have ever seen such a divergence of opinion before > on what is required for a technological breakthrough (unless people are not > being serious and I am being naive). I suppose this sort of non-consensus > on such a scale could be part of investor reticence. > > Eric B. Ramsay > > Matt Mahoney wrote: > > > --- Mike Tintner wrote: > > > Matt : a super-google will answer these questions by routing them to > > experts on these topics that will use natural language in their narrow > > domains of expertise. > > > > And Santa will answer every child's request, and we'll all live happily > ever > > after. Amen. > > If you have a legitimate criticism of the technology or its funding plan, I > would like to hear it. I understand there will be doubts about a system I > expect to cost over $1 quadrillion and take 30 years to build. > > The protocol specifies natural language. This is not a hard problem in > narrow > domains. It dates back to the 1960's. Even in broad domains, most of the > meaning of a message is independent of word order. Google works on this > principle. > > But this is beside the point. The critical part of the design is an > incentive > for peers to provide useful services in exchange for resources. Peers that > appear most intelligent and useful (and least annoying) are most likely to > have their messages accepted and forwarded by other peers. People will > develop domain experts and routers and put them on the net because they can > make money through highly targeted advertising. > > Google would be a peer on the network with a high reputation. But Google > controls only 0.1% of the computing power on the Internet. It will have to > compete with a system that allows updates to be searched instantly, where > queries are persistent, and where a query or message can initiate > conversations with other people in real time. > > > Which are these areas of science, technology, arts, or indeed any area of > > human activity, period, where the experts all agree and are NOT in deep > > conflict? > > > > And if that's too hard a question, which are the areas of AI or AGI, where > > the experts all agree and are not in deep conflict? > > I don't expect the experts to agree. It is better that they don't. There are > hard problem remaining to be solved in language modeling, vision, and > robotics. We need to try many approaches with powerful hardware. The network > will decide who the winners are. > > > -- Matt Mahoney, [EMAIL PROTECTED] > > ------------------------------------------- > singularity > Archives: http://www.listbox.com/member/archive/11983/=now > RSS Feed: http://www.listbox.com/member/archive/rss/11983/ > Modify Your Subscription: http://www.listbox.com/member/?&; > > Powered by Listbox: http://www.listbox.com > > > ________________________________ > > singularity | Archives | Modify Your Subscription -- Ben Goertzel, PhD CEO, Novamente LLC and Biomind LLC Director of Research, SIAI [EMAIL PROTECTED] "If men cease to believe that they will one day become gods then they will surely become worms." -- Henry Miller ------------------------------------------- singularity Archives: http://www.listbox.com/member/archive/11983/=now RSS Feed: http://www.listbox.com/member/archive/rss/11983/ Modify Your Subscription: http://www.listbox.com/member/?&; Powered by Listbox: http://www.listbox.com ------------------------------------------- singularity Archives: http://www.listbox.com/member/archive/11983/=now RSS Feed: http://www.listbox.com/member/archive/rss/11983/ Modify Your Subscription: http://www.listbox.com/member/?member_id=4007604&id_secret=98631122-712fa4 Powered by Listbox: http://www.listbox.com
