MM,

Wished I could belive the person you referred to. I spent a considerable 
time in looking at the statistics and different opinions. The more I looked 
the more I found the following research credible,

http://www.peakoil.net/

http://www.isv.uu.se/uhdsg/

http://www.hubbertpeak.com/campbell/

http://www.mbendi.com/indy/oilg/p0070.htm

http://www.commondreams.org/views03/1202-09.htm

http://www.newscientist.com/news/news.jsp?id=ns99994216

http://www.bp.com/subsection.do?categoryId=95&contentId=2006480

Let us hope that your source is right and that we only imagine the current 
situation, because if he is right, it is no reason for the higher prices. 
Hydrogen (from coal LOL) is an environmental clean up question and we only 
have to learn how to catch all NG that is floating around in US. I made a 
typo in the previous posting, "coal and oil" should have been "coal and 
nuclear".

The agreement with Russia about the purchase of nuclear warheads, which are 
currently used to fire up the US nuclear power plants, is at the end now 
and they probably want them for own plants. Maybe US can use their own 
warheads.

I can only make my judgement of the collective information, based on data 
and research and not only floating statement of some persons opinions. It 
is very disturbing correlation with what is happening today, events and 
most of all the market data. Market data are often very telling, since it 
is a mirror of economy and reality.

I really hope that you are right and that I am over pessimistic. Not that I 
am known to be so, but maybe I changed at old age and do not realize it. I 
have always been regarded as a realist, but maybe I am flipping over. I am 
63 years old and cannot change that. I do not have memory lapses, but maybe 
something else is wrong. Let us hope so.

Hakan



At 06:42 01/04/2004, you wrote:
>On Thu, 01 Apr 2004 05:23:13 +0200, you wrote:
>
> >
> >MM,
> >
> >Personally I have some thought about the total scenario. I find the OPEC
> >cuts being against their own adopted policies and it might be some other
> >underlaying reasons also.
> >
> >- It has been said many times that we now are at the Hubbert peak of world
> >oil production.
> >
> >- It has also been said that the Saudis and the other swing producers have
> >over reported their reserves for a while now.
> >
> >- The Iraq war took out a considerable oil production for US, I think they
> >were the third supplier in size.
> >
> >- The Venezuelan coup attempt by CIA and the following unrest are hurting
> >deliveries.
> >
> >- China is buying up a larger part of oil production.
> >
> >- The OPEC cartel was not supporting the Iraq invasion and cannot or do not
> >want to compensate for deficiencies.
> >
> >- Increasing anti Saudi propaganda, that must worry them.
> >
> >- US one sided support of Israel.
> >
> >- The miscalculation and problems in Iraq, that inhibit a restoring and
> >rise of Iraqi oil production.
> >
> >- The miscalculation and problems with NG supplies.
> >
> >- US policies that have isolated them somewhat from the world community.
> >
> >- and a few other minor problems.
> >
> >Maybe it is not possible to increase the oil production, even if they
> >wanted. It must be difficult to motivate larger sacrifices or extra
> >ordinary measures by OPEC, to bail out US in their thirst for oil. Any
> >further aggressions by US, would only result in further disturbances in oil
> >supply. It is looking like a catch 22 situation and with little time to
> >implement alternatives like coal and oil.
> >
> >What do you think?
> >
> >Hakan
>
>Even if I agree with your assessment on some of these things, and
>disagree with some of the weighting you give other factors, want to
>choose one main point where my main response is:
>
>"I think a lot about this question, but I just don't know with
>absolute certainty".
>
>And the question is: whether there is really a shortage of petroleum.
>I heard a speaker for a major auto manufacturer give a speech on the
>economics of alternative fuel vehicles.  Each of the speakers had
>different opinions.  It was this speaker's opinion that
>
>"The World Is Awash In Oil".
>
>This phrase keeps going through my mind.  And he proceeded to give
>some charts which demonstrated such massive amounts of oil that we are
>to find and use in this century that it made it seem ludicrous that we
>would be using scarcity as a concept when applied to oil.  I do not
>have access to his data.
>
>He then proceeded to justify production of Hydrogen and other alt-fuel
>vehicles on environmental-global-warming grounds, because he saw no
>grounds for it based on petroleum scarcity.
>
>I try to keep an open mind, and anyone living in America or outside of
>it can see that *some* scarcity in Oil is not due to geological
>scarcity but human-behaviour-induced scarcity, such as military
>conflict and trade conflict and oil-field-non-optimal-mining.
>
>With our present attitudes, even if there were plenty of oil in the
>world, we (in various nations) would find ways to increase our use of
>it so that we could somehow make it scarce again.  And on the balance,
>I'm inclined to believe that a century of growing use has led to some
>scarcity of the easiest-to-get oil. I think a good example is the way
>that the U.S. had a pretty good supply of oil in the Texas area, but
>when we grew our consumption to 20 mBPD, there was no way we could be
>begin to cover our use.
>
>If we can get oil and gasoline price levels to stay at their present
>levels or increase somewhat ($2.60 or so per gallon for 87 Octane,
>national average?) and then stay steady, maybe we'll see a gradual
>change rather than a catastrophe.
>
>I have other thoughts on these matters, but I guess they can wait.




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