September 2004
http://www.dieselnet.com/
US DOE examines long-term oil supply scenarios
The Energy Information Administration (EIA) of the US Department of
Energy (DOE) has released a study that examined long-term supply
scenarios for world petroleum. Under the most likely scenario--
assuming a 2% annual growth rate for world's oil demand and the mean
value for the amount of oil reserves--the study predicts that
petroleum production will reach its peak in 2037.
The study is a re-release of an oil supply prognosis originally
published in July 2000, prompted in part by the increasing fuel
prices in the USA. There has been no new information or developments
that would significantly alter the year 2000 results, stated the EIA.
The study is based on estimates of world's oil resources by the US
Geological Survey. The EIA estimated that the world's growth in oil
demand will be 1.9% through 2025.
The critical event in world oil production will be when it reaches
its peak. The following decline in oil production would leave some
oil demand unsatisfied, likely leading to significant price
increases. The date of the peak depends on the rate of demand growth
and assumed reserves. Twelve scenarios were examined in the study,
for different oil demand growth rate (0-3%) and different oil
reserves. The potential dates for the peak oil production ranged from
2021 to 2112.
Only conventionally reservoired crude oil reserves were analyzed in
the study. Additional petroleum supply is expected from
unconventional sources. Commercial production has already started
from such sources as the Canadian tar sands and Venezuelan heavy oils.
While the EIA analysis is less alarming than some other reports, its
authors noted that the results do not justify complacency about both
supply- and demand-side research and development.
The EIA also prepares short-term energy outlook reports, published
monthly. In the most recent September issue, the EIA revised the
projected world oil demand growth for 2004 to 3.2% (from a previous
prediction of 2.5%) above the 2003 demand. Strong demand from China
accounts for much of the upward revision. Global oil demand growth in
2005 is expected to slow down to 2.4% due to the increased oil prices.
Long term outlook:
http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/oil_gas/petroleum/feature_articles/2004/wor
ldoilsupply/oilsupply04.html
Short term outlook:
http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/contents.html
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