I wonder where he thinks they will get the hydrogen from, and how much he thinks folks will be willing to pay for it .....
Steve Spence -----Original Message----- From: [EMAIL PROTECTED] [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] On Behalf Of Johnston, Don Sent: Thursday, September 30, 2004 11:23 AM To: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Subject: RE: [Biofuel] US DOE examines long-term oil supply scenarios Guys, I discussed the issue of 'known oil reserves' with Ray Noble, who is in charge of the UK's BP SOLAR Programme. I raised the issue that the 'reserve window' kept expanding, ie when the oil companies were down to 20-25 years 'known' reserves, all of a sudden they found more, and consequently the known reserve window expands to a new time horizon. Ray acknowledged that this used to be the case but affirmed that all the major oil companies now knew where ALL the oil and gas was, and that there was no more to be found, it was simply a matter of how easy ,or how expensive it was going to be to extract from each reserve. He then went on to affirm that, and I try to quote from memory, 'that BP does not expect to be selling petrol, diesel, or LPG on its station forecourts by 2035, it expects to be selling hydrogen.'. I have absolutely no wish to upset this biodiesel fraternity, but note that he did not say to me that BP expects to be selling biodiesel. This was only a couple of years ago.....curious. Don Johnston Environmental Coordinator , Portsmouth City Council Chair, Solent Energy and Environment Management Group Winner ; National Champion-Science and Technology, Green Apple Awards 2002 mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] <mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED]> Tel: 023 9283 4247 -----Original Message----- From: [EMAIL PROTECTED] [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] Behalf Of Keith Addison Sent: 30 September 2004 15:14 To: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Subject: [Biofuel] US DOE examines long-term oil supply scenarios DieselNet UPDATE September 2004 http://www.dieselnet.com/ US DOE examines long-term oil supply scenarios The Energy Information Administration (EIA) of the US Department of Energy (DOE) has released a study that examined long-term supply scenarios for world petroleum. Under the most likely scenario-- assuming a 2% annual growth rate for world's oil demand and the mean value for the amount of oil reserves--the study predicts that petroleum production will reach its peak in 2037. The study is a re-release of an oil supply prognosis originally published in July 2000, prompted in part by the increasing fuel prices in the USA. There has been no new information or developments that would significantly alter the year 2000 results, stated the EIA. The study is based on estimates of world's oil resources by the US Geological Survey. The EIA estimated that the world's growth in oil demand will be 1.9% through 2025. The critical event in world oil production will be when it reaches its peak. The following decline in oil production would leave some oil demand unsatisfied, likely leading to significant price increases. The date of the peak depends on the rate of demand growth and assumed reserves. Twelve scenarios were examined in the study, for different oil demand growth rate (0-3%) and different oil reserves. The potential dates for the peak oil production ranged from 2021 to 2112. Only conventionally reservoired crude oil reserves were analyzed in the study. Additional petroleum supply is expected from unconventional sources. Commercial production has already started from such sources as the Canadian tar sands and Venezuelan heavy oils. While the EIA analysis is less alarming than some other reports, its authors noted that the results do not justify complacency about both supply- and demand-side research and development. The EIA also prepares short-term energy outlook reports, published monthly. In the most recent September issue, the EIA revised the projected world oil demand growth for 2004 to 3.2% (from a previous prediction of 2.5%) above the 2003 demand. Strong demand from China accounts for much of the upward revision. Global oil demand growth in 2005 is expected to slow down to 2.4% due to the increased oil prices. Long term outlook: http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/oil_gas/petroleum/feature_articles/2004/wor ldoilsupply/oilsupply04.html Short term outlook: http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/contents.html _______________________________________________ Biofuel mailing list [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://wwia.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/biofuel Biofuel at Journey to Forever: http://journeytoforever.org/biofuel.html Biofuel archives at Infoarchive.net (searchable): http://infoarchive.net/sgroup/biofuel/ ********************************************************** This e-mail is for the intended recipient only. If an addressing, transmission or other error has misdirected this e-mail, please notify the author by replying to this e-mail. If you are not the intended recipient you must not use, disclose, distribute, copy, print, or reply to this email. This e-mail may be monitored, read, recorded and retained by Portsmouth City Council. 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