I wonder where he thinks they will get the hydrogen from, and how much
he thinks folks will be willing to pay for it .....

Steve Spence

-----Original Message-----
From: [EMAIL PROTECTED] [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] On
Behalf Of Johnston, Don
Sent: Thursday, September 30, 2004 11:23 AM
To: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Subject: RE: [Biofuel] US DOE examines long-term oil supply scenarios

Guys, I discussed the issue of 'known oil reserves' with Ray Noble, who
is in charge of the UK's BP SOLAR Programme. I raised the issue that the
'reserve window' kept expanding, ie when the oil companies were down to
20-25 years 'known' reserves, all of a sudden they found more, and
consequently the known reserve window expands to a new time horizon. Ray
acknowledged that this used to be the case but affirmed that all the
major oil companies now knew where ALL the oil and gas was, and that
there was no more to be found, it was simply a matter of how easy ,or
how expensive it was going to be to extract from each reserve.
 He then went on to affirm that, and I try to quote from memory, 'that
BP does not expect to be selling petrol, diesel, or LPG on its station
forecourts by 2035, it expects to be selling hydrogen.'.
        I have absolutely no wish to upset this biodiesel fraternity,
but note that he did not say to me that BP expects to be selling
biodiesel. This was only a couple of years ago.....curious. 

Don Johnston
Environmental Coordinator , Portsmouth City Council
Chair, Solent Energy and Environment Management Group

Winner ; National Champion-Science and Technology, Green Apple Awards
2002

mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED]
<mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED]> 
Tel: 023 9283 4247


-----Original Message-----
From: [EMAIL PROTECTED] [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED]
Behalf Of Keith Addison
Sent: 30 September 2004 15:14
To: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Subject: [Biofuel] US DOE examines long-term oil supply scenarios


DieselNet UPDATE
September 2004
http://www.dieselnet.com/


US DOE examines long-term oil supply scenarios

The Energy Information Administration (EIA) of the US Department of 
Energy (DOE) has released a study that examined long-term supply 
scenarios for world petroleum. Under the most likely scenario-- 
assuming a 2% annual growth rate for world's oil demand and the mean 
value for the amount of oil reserves--the study predicts that 
petroleum production will reach its peak in 2037.

The study is a re-release of an oil supply prognosis originally 
published in July 2000, prompted in part by the increasing fuel 
prices in the USA. There has been no new information or developments 
that would significantly alter the year 2000 results, stated the EIA. 
The study is based on estimates of world's oil resources by the US 
Geological Survey. The EIA estimated that the world's growth in oil 
demand will be 1.9% through 2025.

The critical event in world oil production will be when it reaches 
its peak. The following decline in oil production would leave some 
oil demand unsatisfied, likely leading to significant price 
increases. The date of the peak depends on the rate of demand growth 
and assumed reserves. Twelve scenarios were examined in the study, 
for different oil demand growth rate (0-3%) and different oil 
reserves. The potential dates for the peak oil production ranged from 
2021 to 2112.

Only conventionally reservoired crude oil reserves were analyzed in 
the study. Additional petroleum supply is expected from 
unconventional sources. Commercial production has already started 
from such sources as the Canadian tar sands and Venezuelan heavy oils.

While the EIA analysis is less alarming than some other reports, its 
authors noted that the results do not justify complacency about both 
supply- and demand-side research and development.

The EIA also prepares short-term energy outlook reports, published 
monthly. In the most recent September issue, the EIA revised the 
projected world oil demand growth for 2004 to 3.2% (from a previous 
prediction of 2.5%) above the 2003 demand. Strong demand from China 
accounts for much of the upward revision. Global oil demand growth in 
2005 is expected to slow down to 2.4% due to the increased oil prices.

Long term outlook:
http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/oil_gas/petroleum/feature_articles/2004/wor 
ldoilsupply/oilsupply04.html

Short term outlook:
http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/contents.html
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