hi, mark. i, too, am kind of skeptical about hybrids, and i have a lot of doubts about fuel cell vehicles as well. but to be fair, the life expectancy of the battery units can only go up, and their cost only go down.
you also, even if only jokingly, raise a good point about the co2 credits. in spite of my own pessimism on that count, i have to admit that it's just possible such a system could be implemented here in the u.s.; down to the household level, even. so this an unknown factor to consider in your equations. an even more important factor, though one more difficult to measure in a way meaningful for your cost comparison, is the cost of global warming. i can think of a number of scenarios which would be a hell of a kick in the pocketbook. -chris
--- Begin Message ---Yes but there is the issue of Battery life and cost. The batteries are warranted for 8-10 year or 80K/100K miles. Prorated - Who knows. There cost is in the $7000 bracket. So lets see, My Toyota Camry 1985 has 321K miles no rebuilds. I will admit it is near death. It get 27 odd MPG. 31 on the freeway. I will make the assumption that maintained cost are about equal for both cars. Assume the same time period and fuel prices. So my cost of ownership is (Toyota Camry) Fuel consumed = 321,000/27 = 11888 gallons. Fuel cost avg $1.50 Total fuel cost = $17,833 Cost per/year = $17,833/20years = $891 fuel costs. Battery cost $0 total = $891/year So my cost of ownership is (VW Jetta) Fuel consumed = 321,000/47 = 6829 gallons. Fuel cost avg $1.50 Total fuel cost = $10,244 Cost per/year = $10,244/20years = $512 fuel costs. Battery cost $0 total = $512/year As a Honda with a 80K/$7000 battery 2005 Honda Accord mileage 30/37 = avg around 35 mpg Fuel consumed = 321,000/35 = 9171 gallons. Fuel cost avg $1.50 Total fuel cost = $13,757 Total batteries used @ 80k mile/bat = 321/80 = 4.012 = 4 4 x 7000 = $28,000 Cost per/year = $13,757/20years = $687 fuel costs. Cost per/year = $28,000/20years = $1400 Battery costs. total = $2100/year @ 80K battery Assume a 150K battery = 2 changes = $14,000 Cost per/year = $13,757/20years = $687 fuel costs. Cost per/year = $14,000/20years = $700 Battery costs. total = $1387/year @ 80K battery As a Honda with a 100K/$7000 battery Insight mileage 60/66 = avg around 63 mpg Fuel consumed = 321,000/35 = 5095 gallons. Fuel cost avg $1.50 Total fuel cost = $7,642 Total batteries used @ 100k mile/bat = 321/100 = 3.21 = 3 3 x 7000 = $21,000 Cost per/year = $7,642/20years = $328 fuel costs. Cost per/year = $21,000/20years = $1050 Battery costs. total = $1378/year @ 100K battery Assume a 150K battery = 2 changes = $14,000 Cost per/year = $13,757/20years = $328 fuel costs. Cost per/year = $14,000/20years = $700 Battery costs. total = $1028/year @ 150K battery Conclusion: Toyota Camry 27mph $891/year Honda Accord $2100/year @ 80K battery 135% higher Honda Accord $1387/year @ 150K battery 56% higher Honda Insight $1387/year @ 100K battery 56% higher Honda Insight $1024/year @ 150K battery 14% higher VW Jetta $512/Year Honda Accord $2100/year @ 80K battery 310% higher Honda Accord $1387/year @ 150K battery 170% higher Honda Insight $1387/year @ 100K battery 170% higher Honda Insight $1024/year @ 150K battery 100% higher So I see not cost benefit to Hybrids, my poor Camry is less expensive. And what about life expectancy. My last Diesel Rabbit was retired at 450,000 miles. No rebuilds. When gas get to $4+ a gallon then there could be a net advantage to the hybrids, if the engine systems can last 20+ years. But still will not compeate with the diesels. Sorry the calculations do not include CO2 carbon credits. Just random thoughts. M -----Original Message----- From: [EMAIL PROTECTED] [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] On Behalf Of Bill Vaughn Sent: Wednesday, June 29, 2005 8:25 AM To: Biofuel@sustainablelists.org Subject: RE: [Biofuel] Hybrid Diesel Mean while the Japanese figured out how to make hybrids at a prices to sell to the American public. Seems there is a line waiting for the hybrids now because of the souring gas prices. Again the big three are slow to answer to the American public and their sinking sales prove once again they don't have a clue. Bill >From: "RobT" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> >Reply-To: Biofuel@sustainablelists.org >To: <Biofuel@sustainablelists.org> >Subject: RE: [Biofuel] Hybrid Diesel >Date: Tue, 28 Jun 2005 09:47:50 -0400 > >I worked on the Ford P2000 DIATA diesel hybrid for a few years in the >late 90's, as a engine control systems engineer. > >It was a research vehicle, part of the PNGV initiative. A pretty cool >and functional hybrid -- a large 4-door car (larger inside than a >Taurus) with reasonable power. I got around 60-70 mpg in real-world >driving, a bit higher on the EPA test cycles. > >The engine and hybrid system were all pretty close to currently >in-production stuff, with the exception of batteries and exhaust >aftertreatment. The cost of the vehicle, though, was way high, much to >high for a marketable car. > >To get the weight down to 2000 lbs curb weight, we had expensive >aluminum, magnesium, and titanium components everywhere. Titanium >lugnuts? $200 each. Magnesium wheels? $$$$ > >I doubt it could have been produced for less than $50,000 US, even >given economies of scale. Fun stuff to play with, though. > >So, I don't think there is a magic vehicle being hidden from us. I do >agree, though, that that was a heck of an expensive program for the >U.S. taxpayer. IIRC, under PNGV the US gave $70 million to each of the >big 3 automakers to come up with these 'possible vehicles'. > >-- RobT _______________________________________________ Biofuel mailing list Biofuel@sustainablelists.org http://sustainablelists.org/mailman/listinfo/biofuel_sustainablelists.or g Biofuel at Journey to Forever: http://journeytoforever.org/biofuel.html Search the combined Biofuel and Biofuels-biz list archives (50,000 messages): http://www.mail-archive.com/biofuel@sustainablelists.org/ _______________________________________________ Biofuel mailing list Biofuel@sustainablelists.org http://sustainablelists.org/mailman/listinfo/biofuel_sustainablelists.org Biofuel at Journey to Forever: http://journeytoforever.org/biofuel.html Search the combined Biofuel and Biofuels-biz list archives (50,000 messages): http://www.mail-archive.com/biofuel@sustainablelists.org/
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