Re: [Biofuel] [Fwd: Economist make sense (except for Krugman)]

[Joe Street]

Hi Robert et al; The guy who made the comment about nukes was me.  I am in total agreement with you about the impending economic restructuring.  That's a nice euphemism isn't it?  What it really means though if you sit down and think about it is just as you said.  Rising energy costs and the secondary effects of that will force a tremendous change on our wasteful style of living.  After it is all over and the new stable system has settled down things will look very different.  During the transition people who are currently in denial will be forced into a brutal reality therapy.  And there will be a war. What happens during this time will surely be chaotic because those with thier heads in the sand right now will not accept change willingly, but as for the nuclear arsenal I think its real value is in the deterent aspect.  That was why I used the grenade inside a closed room analogy.  Even if things get really bad economically and the house of cards comes down, I like to believe that although people can be selfish, greedy, arrogant....(insert your favorite insult here) ....all of those self serving iterests also serve NOT letting off one of those firecrackers.  They are only for show. (I hope).  Your comments on hyperinflation are well founded and well taken.  I have been considering the investment in a photovoltaic system and have started to consider that although the cost is almost prohibitive at this time just imagine what the asking price for alternatives will become when the restructuring hits!  It may be that the window of opportunity for that type of investment is about to close (for the average joe).  And the question of worth begins to take a radical turn as you pointed out. What will become the new controlling economy once oil and its derivatives are out of reach?  Consider what results when massive unemployment collides with massive debt.  Those SUV's that people cannot unload, will they get reposessed?  Along with the 2500 sq ft houses that are suddenly unaffordable?  And if so who are the banks going to sell them to?  Your eldest sister may be able to hang on for longer than most but unless she invests in a strategy that gives her some degree of independance it will run out at some point.  If the economy could be restarted she may weather it, but suppose the house of cards cannot be rebuit because it has been sitting on a foundation of cheap energy which no longer exists and will never return? She will be the latecomer to this list. Enough doom and gloom already. Joe robert luis rabello wrote: Tom Irwin wrote: Hi Robert and all, At what price will demand for oil fall, say in China or the U.S. ? Is there an economist out there currently making millions in the futures market that knows that answer? Does $60-$70 per barrel of oil contain the environmental cost of obtaining and utilizing that oil? It is mid winter here and my early spring jazmine bush is already full blooming and my raspberries are starting to bud. Basically my backyard garden is telling me something that is obviously beyond the mere current cost of a barrel of oil. Tom Irwin My sister suffers from a common delusion in North America: "Nothing is wrong. Everything will go on the way it always has. Don't concern yourself with issues raised by the lunatic fringe of the environmental movement." I remember what hyperinflation was like in Brasil, where the money spent on a refrigerator one month would barely serve to buy a six pack of beer for it the next. I can imagine wealth painstakingly built over a lifetime disappearing like a morning mist. It's quite possible that economic problems will force a fundamental change in societal structure which some (mostly rich people like my eldest sister) will weather without grave difficulty. While markets may adjust, there WILL be a human cost, particularly if energy prices rise rapidly. We should have had an energy policy decades ago, and I believe we will pay for our procrastination. It doesn't do a family who is mortgaged up to the hilt and paying better than $500 per month on their V 8 powered machine any good to consider a hybrid, if their SUV is worth less than what they owe. The efficiency improvements "mandated" by increasing scarcity require capital investment that simply will not be available to most people whose financial situations conform to the consumerist paradigm. The fundamental problem of remaining oil reserves requiring more and more energy to extract is totally LOST on most people. This will create a scramble for easily recoverable resources likely involving yet another round of bombs, bullets and death. My country is on a collision course with China, and thus far, because our leaders are listening to nonsensical market prognosticators who visualize an endless rise in GDP, they've done NOTHING serious to reduce our energy-related gluttony. Someone in this forum wrote that the U.S. will never use its nuclear weapons. I don't see how we could take on China without them, yet if we do so, we will drag the rest of the world down with us. It's a path we needn't follow, and that's why the dialogue in this forum is so critical. As for the weather, we've endured several weeks of temperatures approaching 40 degrees. My grass is brown and dotted with Keith's beloved "deep rooting herbs". Trees are already losing their leaves. However, our vegetable garden is bursting with produce. We've NEVER had such an abundant harvest, and for the first time EVER, I'm growing maize that's taller than I am! (We have a sunflower that is well over 3 meters in height, too!) There has been no snow left on the local mountains (except for Mount Baker, which rises some 3 400 meters above sea level) for months now. This year's salmon run is pathetic! Yet most people remain unconcerned. They're reading and believing articles like "Economist make sense". Meanwhile, I'm making compost, walking instead of driving, and harvesting food from my own property. robert luis rabello "The Edge of Justice" Adventure for Your Mind http://www.newadventure.ca Ranger Supercharger Project Page http://www.members.shaw.ca/rabello/ _______________________________________________ Biofuel mailing list Biofuel@sustainablelists.org http://sustainablelists.org/mailman/listinfo/biofuel_sustainablelists.org Biofuel at Journey to Forever: http://journeytoforever.org/biofuel.html Search the combined Biofuel and Biofuels-biz list archives (50,000 messages): http://www.mail-archive.com/biofuel@sustainablelists.org/

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