Something is rotten in the state of Sweden. Or not. But I do smell a dead rat in here somewhere.
We have studies from the U.S. that switching from petro-fuel to electricity for transportation reduces emissions, including greenhouse gases, even when the electricity comes entirely from coal-fired plants. However, in Sweden, the primary energy sources are hydro and nuclear (over 90% of the generation from those two sources). Fossil sources produce considerably less than 10% of the electricity mix. (This document is a bit dated, but presents the information nicely in a graph on page 2. http://ec.europa.eu/energy/energy_policy/doc/factsheets/mix/mix_se_en.pdf) So, Sweden is switching from conventional gasoline and diesel vehicles to electric and plug-in hybrids, charging from a grid that is over 90% supplied from essentially zero-GHG sources, but the emissions are going up? And, the actual market penetration is still trivially small - I'm guessing well below 1% of the total road-going fleet in the country. Doesn't pass the smell test. Unfortunately, the article doesn't bother to cite the evidence used to support it's conclusion. My suspicion: the Swedish 'transportation sector' includes something other than private cars that might be driving the numbers up (e.g., ships burning bunker C crude). Actually, after a very limited Web search, I could not find anything credible that looked like the 'evidence' for the article - just lots of copy-cat items that also did not provide citations for the desired data. I did find this, dated January 2011: http://www.eea.europa.eu/data-and-maps/figures/change-in-total-ghg-emissions, which shows Sweden's transportation GHG emissions going up 9% from 1990 to 2008. The catch is that Sweden did not get serious about EV incentives until about 2008-2009, a time period not covered by the data for this report. Here's someone else's response (found while searching for the 'evidence'). http://dagblog.com/link/what-if-green-products-make-us-pollute-more-10581 (check the comments by "quinn") Darryl On 11/06/2011 1:10 PM, Keith Addison wrote: > http://www.commondreams.org/view/2011/06/10-3 > > Published on Friday, June 10, 2011 by CommonDreams.org > > The Green Revolution Backfires: Sweden's Lesson for Real Sustainability > > by Firmin DeBrabander > > What if electric cars made pollution worse, not better? What if they > increased greenhouse gas emissions instead of decreasing them? > Preposterous you say? Well, consider what's happened in Sweden. > > Through generous subsidies, Sweden aggressively pushed its citizens > to trade in their cars for energy efficient replacements (hybrids, > clean diesel vehicles, cars that run on ethanol). Sweden has been so > successful in this initiative that it leads the world in per capita > sales of 'green cars.' To everyone's surprise, however, greenhouse > gas emissions from Sweden's transportation sector are up. > > Or perhaps we should not be so surprised after all. What do you > expect when you put people in cars they feel good about driving (or > at least less guilty), which are also cheap to buy and run? > Naturally, they drive them more. So much more, in fact, that they > obliterate energy gains made by increased fuel efficiency. > > We need to pay attention to this as GM and Nissan roll out their new > green cars to great fanfare. The Chevy Volt, a hybrid with a > lithium-ion battery, can go 35 miles on electric power alone (after > charging over night, for example), and GM brags on its website that > if you limit your daily driving to that distance, you can "commute > gas-free for an average of $1.50 a day." The Volt's price is listed > at a very reasonable $33K (if you qualify for the maximum $7500 in > tax credits). The fully electric Nissan Leaf is advertized for an > even more reasonable $26K (with qualifying tax credits, naturally). > What a deal-and it's good for you, too, the carmakers want you to > know. As GM helpfully points out on its website, "Electricity is a > cleaner source of power." > > Sweden is a model of sustainability innovation, while the US is the > most voracious consumer on the planet. Based on Sweden's experience > with green cars, it's daunting to imagine their possible impact here. > Who can doubt that they'll likely inspire Americans to make longer > commutes to work, live even further out in the exurbs, bringing > development, blacktop and increased emissions with them? > > In its current state, the green revolution is largely devoted to the > effort to provide consumers with the products they have always loved, > but now in affordable energy efficient versions. The thinking seems > to be that through this gradual exchange, we can reduce our > collective carbon footprint. Clearly, however, this approach is > doomed if we don't reform our absurd consumption habits, which are so > out-of-whack that they risk undoing any environmental gains we might > make. Indeed, we are such ardent, addicted consumers that we take > efficiency gains as license to consume even more! > > We need to address consumption fast because-news alert-the current > consumer class on earth barely amounts to 1 billion people (if that), > but 2 billion and counting eagerly wait in the wings. > > American industry hungrily targets the rising Chinese consumer class. > For the sake of the planet, we better hope it doesn't get its way. > Consider: China currently has a car ownership rate approximately > one-sixth that of the US. If China achieves car ownership rates > comparable to the US, that would put an additional 800 million cars > on the road. And that's just China. Even if we somehow succeeded in > making China's fleet super efficient, it would still be more than the > planet can handle. > > Of course, cars are only the tip of the iceberg when it comes to > Chinese consumer dreams. They will also want more electronics, > clothes, meat, processed foods-bigger houses. In short, we can bet > that the rising Chinese middle class will want something close to > what we have. And why shouldn't they? We have been showcasing our > middle class comfort worldwide for years through our vast media > exports. Everyone is betting, hoping-assuming?-that technology will > eventually help us deliver the American dream worldwide with no > environmental impact. But clearly, we may run out of planet by the > time that day comes. Even the American dream in an 'energy efficient > format' is likely too much for the earth to handle. > > If this is chilling-and it should be-you might wonder, what are our > options? Justice demands that we cannot prevent, much less discourage > the growing global consumer class from having the consumer goods we > currently enjoy. Real change starts with us then, and I'm afraid to > say, radical change is in order. We must figure out a way to consume > less, which means driving less, shopping less, eating less meat > (which the UN estimates is responsible for a fifth of all greenhouse > gases), and conserving food and energy. This means essentially > rethinking our suburban-sprawling, fast-food-gorging, shopaholic > society. We must model for the world the changes we hope everyone > will make to ensure a sustainable future. > > It's time to be courageous and think big about altering our > lifestyle, values and future. The powers that be are reluctant to > rock the boat with consumers, and have decided that leaving > consumption habits intact as much as possible is the preferable > option. They'd rather get us into electric cars, rather than out of > our cars altogether. Well, we need more than half measures at this > point. As Sweden proves, unless other more fundamental changes are > made to our engrained consumption habits, half measures only dig us > deeper in the hole. > > Firmin DeBrabander is Chair of Humanistic Studies and Associate > Professor of Philosophy at the Maryland Institute College of Art. > -- Darryl McMahon Project Manager, Common Assessment and Referral for Enhanced Support Services (CARESS) _______________________________________________ Biofuel mailing list Biofuel@sustainablelists.org http://sustainablelists.org/mailman/listinfo/sustainablelorgbiofuel Biofuel at Journey to Forever: http://journeytoforever.org/biofuel.html Search the combined Biofuel and Biofuels-biz list archives (70,000 messages): http://www.mail-archive.com/biofuel@sustainablelists.org/
