For Posting on Sydphil On Thurs 18 Nov in the Centre for Research in Complex Systems, at the Stuart University Bathurst, 12h30 CRiCS Seminar Room: Prof David Makinson (LSE Philosophy, London) will speak om "Proto-probability". Abstract: In recent years, the study of qualitative uncertain inference has given rise to the notion of probabilistically sound consequence relations. They are rather like preferential consequence relations in that they may fail monotony, but satisfy only conditions that are, in a natural sense, probabilistically sound. A syntactic account was given by Hawthorne, although the question of its completeness remains open. The study of such consequence relations leads naturally to a generalization of existing accounts of conditional probability itself, such as the standard ratio/unit definition and the less well known intrinsically conditional systems of Hosiasson-Lindenbaum, Popper, and van Fraassen. The idea is to articulate a weakest notion of conditional probability that suffices to validate the postulates of Hawthorne's system for probabilistic consequence. We do this in purely-order theoretic terms, calling it proto-probability, and begin a study of its behaviour.
-- David Makinson Visiting Professor, Philosophy LSE http://sites.google.com/site/davidcmakinson
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