Are you making the assumption that Geb and Tergat are at the peak of the their careers? I'd have to say that both were at their peak when they were setting 5k/10k WRs and winning Olympic golds/silvers (1995-2000). I think it's a pretty safe assumption that today there are more runners waiting until after their peak track 10k/5k fitness to run a marathon than 20-30 years ago.
Alan
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I believe that you CAN make comparisons across distances. What's interesting is that in the women's case, the marathon mark is now much STRONGER than the other marks. How do you explain that discrepancy? Over time, the longer distances have tended to get faster relative to the shorter distances as training volume increased and the number of top line athletes competing in the event has increased. For example, how many 10k WR holders (Gebreselassie) or even 10k WC/Oly medalists (Tergat) have run the men's marathon at or near the peak of their career? Salazar is the only one that I can think of. (Zatopek's triple doesn't count, but even that was a WR, showing how weak the mark was.) What's interesting about the women is that they've had many more top elites at shorter distances run the marathon, in part because the 5k and 10k were not Olympic distances until 1992.
As for the drop in marathon from 2:08:34 to 2:08:18, remember that the 10k record only fell from 27:39 to 27:22 in the same period, yet the 10k record is now 26:22. The marathon record should be 2:04:06 if it is to improve an equivalent amount. That's in line with my previous assessment.
Your assessment is purely subjective as to whether a 2:05:50 marathon should be considered on par with a 26:30 10k. You then leap to unfounded conclusions based on your purely subjective assessment. I offer a counter assessment which is backed by some quantitative analysis. I'm probably not on the mark, as most quantitative assessments of the real world require oversimplification. However, those types of analyses give a good indication of the general direction--much better than anecdotal subjective assessments.
As for record bursts that have occurred, it's not always evident until after the fact as to why those bursts have occurred. If I was going to offer an explanation about the current burst it would be that African runners began to enter the distance running events in large droves in the 1980s. They ran along with the Europeans and Americans with their preexisting notions about running limits until the early 1990s. Then the Africans began to compete solely with each other and discovered that they could push beyond those limits, due in part because their own lifestyles are so harsh (much harder than even 19th century Europe and America), and in part because the added nutritional and technology benefits (not necessarily drugs given the leaps by young athletes who are too poor to buy drugs) that are becoming more available in East and North Africa. The 5k and 10k marks have stood since 1998. Now those top athletes are moving up to the marathon, and the performances in that event are beginning to improve similarly.
The introduction of a new competitive population with the right predisposition may have been the reason for the Finnish-driven burst in the 1920s, and the Eastern European-driven burst in the 1950s (emerging from the WWII disaster). The 1940s and 1960s bursts were driven almost solely by new training techniques, although the emergence of Kip Keino had some effect on the latter (the only man who could run toe to toe with both Ryun and Clarke.) The late 70s burst was much more of mixed bag, with Rono on one hand, and Walker, Coe and Ovett on the other.
RMc
At 02:36 PM 10/14/2003 +0000, alan tobin wrote:"You need to realize that the current men's marathon WR is stillquite weak, and should be well under 2:04 to be equivalent to the classic distances WRs. Even Tergat's half marathon record is better than his marathon."
I friggin hate assumptions like that. Using that logic all of the women's WRs fail in comparison to the 400 mark. You can not compare a time at one distance to a time at another distance. It's just stupid. The marathon is an entirely different ball game than the 10k or even the half-marathon. You can however compare times at one distance across decades. It took 21 years to drop from 2:08:34 to 2:08:18. Even if you question the validity of the first time it still took 24 years to drop from 2:09:36 to 2:08:18. That's the largest gap between drops in the men's record. One would think that an event record would drop dramatically at first and then level off unless there are major training breakthroughs (late 60s) or very gifted individuals (Peters, Clayton, KK) who break the record multiple times. What I don't buy is the record being broken by a different person every year or every week.
Alan
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Actually, he's 55 seconds off the WR. By my calculation, his time equals about 26:55 for 10k. Given that few marathoners run equivalent 10k performances, I don't think he's too far out of line. You need to realize that the current men's marathon WR is still quite weak, and should be well under 2:04 to be equivalent to the classic distances WRs. Even Tergat's half marathon record is better than his marathon.
RMc
At 06:35 PM 10/13/2003 +0000, alan tobin wrote:When a runner I barely heard of runs his first ever marathon 8 seconds off a record that was just broke I start to wonder. 27:30 10k 2:05:50 marathon. Call me a pessimist if you want. Icing on the cake would be if he's a part of Dr. Rosa's camp. Anyone know?
Alan
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Sunday October 12, 06:50 PM
Marathon debutant Rutto, Boston champ Zakharova win at Chicago http://uk.sports.yahoo.com/031012/323/eawyq.html
Click to enlarge photo
CHICAGO (AFP) - First-time marathoner Evans Rutto of Kenya and reigning Boston Marathon champion Svetlana Zakharova of Russia won titles at the Chicago Marathon.
Rutto won in 2hr 05min 50sec, eight seconds off the race mark, American Khalid Khannouchi's old world best of 2:05:42 in 1999.
Click to enlarge photo
Kenya's Paul Tergat set the world marathon best of 2:04:55 at the Berlin Marathon on September 28.
But Rutto's run does break the world mark for first-time marathon runners, which had been 2:06:47 by Wilson Onsari in Paris this year.
"I was very surprised by the time," Rutto said. "I'm very happy. I felt good all the way, very strong."
Zakharova won in 2:23:07 with runner-up Constantina Tomescu-Dita 28 seconds behind.
"It was hard to hold up at the end," Zakharova said. "It was hot. I like it here very much and I'll be back next year."
Rutto took home 225,000 dollars while Zakharova received 110,000 dollars. Each won 100,000 dollars for the victory but the Kenyan captured more in bonus prize money.
A late-race surge brought victory for Zakharova, pulling away from her Romanian rival in the final mile for the triumph.
"I tried to hold on for the win, but it was not possible," Tomescu-Dita said. "I had pain in my legs and my stomach."
Latvian Jelena Prokopcuka was third, followed by Russia's Albina Ivanova and Poland's Grazyna Syrek.
Kenyans swept the top five men's spots with Paul Koech second in an unofficial time of 2:07:07 and Daniel Njenga third in an unofficial 2:07:41 over the 26.2-mile course. Peter Chebet was fourth with Jimmy Muindi fifth.
Moroccan Abdelkader El Mouaziz was sixth, followed by American Mebrahton Keflezhigi and South Africa's Hendrick Ramaala.
Rutto, 25, ran the eighth-fastest 10,000m in the world in June of 2000, a personal best of 27:31:32.
He seized command in the men's race, zipping through the 20th mile in 4:35 to pull away from a world-class field and handling the final 10km in 29:26.
Zakharova, 33, was coming off a ninth-place showing at August's World Championships in Paris, where she ran 2:26:53.
Zakharova won the Boston Marathon in April in 2:25:19 and ran her personal best here last year to place fourth in 2:21:31, a Russian national record.
The 26th running of the Chicago race featured 40,000 entrants and a record 550,000-dollar purse.
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