Christopher D. Green wrote: > Paul Brandon wrote: >> But in the long run no one beats the chimp with a dart board. > > "In the long run, we'll all be dead." > - John Kenneth Galbraith
Sorry, I was wrong. It was Galbraith's economic inspiration John Maynard Keynes in /A Tract on Monetary Reform/ (1923). Chris Green York U. Toronto =============== >> >> On Nov 24, 2008, at 10:24 AM, Paul C Bernhardt wrote: >> >>> I'm not sure what Stephen would include under "technical analysis" >>> either. >>> >>> But, the term Technical Analysis has a precise meaning among stock >>> traders. >>> http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technical_analysis >>> http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school >>> http://www.investopedia.com/university/technical/ >>> >>> It is a collection of numerical and pattern interpretation >>> procedures of the >>> past behavior of a security (price and volume of trading, usually) >>> that are >>> used to determine the near and long term change in value of that >>> security. >>> >>> Technical analysis does not take into account any financial >>> characteristics >>> of the economy, nation, sector of operations, company finances, >>> sales, cash >>> flow, outstanding shares, competitive position, etc. It is just >>> based on >>> charts of the past behavior of the stock (or other security) price. >> >> I'm not sure that this is true in practice -- too much competition >> and pressure to get an edge. >> The good news is (as Paul Meehl would predict) that it does better >> than other types of financial modeling. >> That's why I invest exclusively in index funds. >> >>> Example: Technical analysis occasionally talk in terms of "head and >>> shoulder" patterns (meaning the stock will head downward due to >>> 'falling off >>> the other shoulder.' (I'm not kidding.) >>> http://www.chartpatterns.com/headandshoulders.htm >>> >>> From what I can tell, in its degree of scholarship and supporting >>> evidence >>> it is indistinguishable from psychic readings. Therefore, it is no >>> surprise >>> to me that stock brokers and traders are calling psychics in greater >>> numbers >>> (assuming the anecdotes in the story represent an actual trend). >>> Many of >>> them believe in Technical Analysis regardless of its lack of >>> theoretical and >>> empirical support, so why not call a psychic, too? >> >> >> Paul Brandon >> Emeritus Professor of Psychology >> Minnesota State University, Mankato >> [EMAIL PROTECTED] >> > --- To make changes to your subscription contact: Bill Southerly ([EMAIL PROTECTED])
