Here's a general rule about mathematics and science: if you can't even measure your data accurately and precisely (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Accuracy_and_precision) then you can't make accurate and precise predictions.
One of my favorite points in my stats class each year is when I have taught them all that elaborate machinery for extracting a regression line from bivariate data, and then how to use it to make predictions. They are all feeling very empowered at that point. And then I start working the standard error of the estimate, and they gradually realize that for most common kinds of psychological data, the confidence interval on any given prediction rarely gives you a range much better than "top half of the data" or "bottom half of the data." I put it to you that very little in psychology is measured either precisely or accurately -- especially emotional states like happiness -- and so point predictions of the kind presented in the article were unlikely to be very useful even if the first author had understood the math (or the co-author had understood psychology). (I, too, 20 years or so ago, thought that non-linear dynamics might unlock psychology, until I realized that we mostly didn't have data good enough to bear that level of scrutiny.) "Bigwigs" like Seligman who praised the article (presumably taking the math on faith) should have known better, but we all know that positive psychology is equal parts Barnum and Carnegie, with just a soupçon of illustrative data to make it seem worth arguing about (don't we?). Chris --- Christopher D. Green Department of Psychology York University Toronto, ON M3J 1P3 Canada chri...@yorku.ca http://www.yorku.ca/christo/ ========================= On 2013-10-31, at 10:18 AM, Jim Clark wrote: > Hi > > I loved this quote in the article from a book titled "Social science as > sorcery." > > The recipe for authorship in this line of business is as simple as it is > rewarding: just > get hold of a textbook of mathematics, copy the less complicated parts, put > in some > references to the literature in one or two branches of the social studies > without worrying > unduly about whether the formulae which you wrote down have any bearing on the > real human actions, and give your product a good-sounding title, which > suggests that > you have found a key to an exact science of collective behaviour. (Andreski, > 1972, > pp. 129-130) > > Reminds me of some of the similarly damning comments about post-modernist and > like efforts to see relevance to social phenomena in such things as > relativity theory and quantum physics. > > I could not follow the math in the article but my take-away was that some > people in our discipline are too quick to push theory way ahead of any > empirical base. I've always been struck by how "The origin of species" cites > massive amounts of data (i.e., observations) in support of a few basic > principles. Unfortunately in psychology, I believe we have moved too far in > the direction of thinking that major theoretical advances happen quickly. > One manifestation of this view is the requirement that papers for some > (most?) of our major journals must be large multi-study papers with strong > theoretical conclusions. What we need are more journals that publish the > results of studies (damn the theory) that can then be integrated once > sufficient and reliable observations are available. In essence what journals > like the Journal of Experimental Psychology and Journal of Verbal Learning > and Verbal Behavior use to be. > > Take care > Jim > > > Jim Clark > Professor & Chair of Psychology > 204-786-9757 > 4L41A > > > -----Original Message----- > From: Paul C Bernhardt [mailto:pcbernha...@frostburg.edu] > Sent: Thursday, October 31, 2013 9:03 AM > To: Teaching in the Psychological Sciences (TIPS) > Subject: Re: [tips] Positive Psychology > > The two things that caught me agape was (1) that Fredrickson did not > understand the mathematics behind her strongly asserting paper. They are > tough mathematics, so I guess she was trusting her co-author...But (2) he > stopped reading the paper part way through? He's an author and he didn't read > it? > > Then, his dismissive response of 'I am not interested in these academic > squabbles, I have more important work to do.' > > Sorry, buddy. When you enter the academic realm to gain the imprimatur of > published work to support your private business you tacitly agree to stay in > the fray of academic discourse. Of course, there's no way to hold his feet to > the fire. Unless other editors become unwilling to publish future work by him > because of his evidenced unwillingness to be responsive to appropriately > posed queries. > > <sigh>... as I posted a few weeks ago, I am becoming a bit despondent over > the state of our science. > > Paul > > > On Oct 31, 2013, at 6:54 AM, Louis Eugene Schmier wrote: > >> And so? >> >> Make it a good day >> >> -Louis- >> >> >> Louis Schmier >> http://www.therandomthoughts.edublogs.org >> 203 E. Brookwood Pl http://www.therandomthoughts.com >> Valdosta, Ga 31602 >> (C) 229-630-0821 /\ /\ /\ /\ >> /\ >> /^\\/ \/ \ /\/\__ >> / \ / \ >> / \/ \_ \/ / \/ >> /\/ / \ /\ \ >> //\/\/ /\ \__/__/_/\_\/ >> \_/__\ \ >> /\"If you want to climb >> mountains,\ /\ >> _ / \ don't practice on mole >> hills" - / \_ >> >> On Oct 31, 2013, at 6:01 AM, Allen Esterson wrote: >> >>> >>> >>> >>> From Chronicle of Higher Education, 31 October 2013: >>> >>> The 2009 book Positivity: Top-Notch Research Reveals the 3 to 1 Ratio >>> That Will Change Your Life, by Barbara Fredrickson, was praised by >>> the heavyweights of psychology. Daniel Gilbert said it provided a >>> "scientifically sound prescription for joy." Daniel Goleman extolled >>> its "surefire methods for transforming our lives." Martin E.P. >>> Seligman often called the father of positive psychology, raved that >>> "this book, like Barb, is the 'real thing.'" [...] The book grew out of >>> a 2005 paper by Fredrickson and Marcial Losada, a Chiliean >>> psychologist and consultant, the findings of which suggest that "a >>> set of general mathematical principles may describe the relations >>> between positive affect and human flourishing."... >>> >>> Then along came Nick Brown, a graduate student in applied positive >>> psychology at the University of East London... >>> >>> Read the rest here: >>> http://chronicle.com/blogs/percolator/the-magic-ratio-that-wasnt/3327 >>> 9 >>> >>> The cited (genuinely scholarly) article on the misuse of mathematics as >>> described by Nick Brown is here: >>> >>> http://arxiv.org/abs/1307.7006 >>> >>> http://arxiv.org/pdf/1307.7006v1.pdf >>> >>> Allen Esterson >>> Former lecturer, Science Department >>> Southwark College, London >>> allenester...@compuserve.com >>> http://www.esterson.org >>> --- >>> >>> You are currently subscribed to tips as: lschm...@valdosta.edu. >>> >>> To unsubscribe click here: >>> http://fsulist.frostburg.edu/u?id=931223.50b956e1f0f315eddcd01dfbd8b8 >>> 7bc1&n=T&l=tips&o=29252 >>> >>> (It may be necessary to cut and paste the above URL if the line is >>> broken) >>> >>> or send a blank email to >>> leave-29252-931223.50b956e1f0f315eddcd01dfbd8b87bc1@fsulist.frostburg >>> .edu >>> >>> >>> >> >> >> --- >> You are currently subscribed to tips as: pcbernha...@frostburg.edu. >> To unsubscribe click here: >> http://fsulist.frostburg.edu/u?id=13441.4e79e96ebb5671bdb50111f18f2630 >> 03&n=T&l=tips&o=29255 or send a blank email to >> leave-29255-13441.4e79e96ebb5671bdb50111f18f263003@fsulist.frostburg.e >> du >> > > > > --- > You are currently subscribed to tips as: j.cl...@uwinnipeg.ca. > To unsubscribe click here: > http://fsulist.frostburg.edu/u?id=13251.645f86b5cec4da0a56ffea7a891720c9&n=T&l=tips&o=29263 > or send a blank email to > leave-29263-13251.645f86b5cec4da0a56ffea7a89172...@fsulist.frostburg.edu > > --- > You are currently subscribed to tips as: chri...@yorku.ca. > To unsubscribe click here: > http://fsulist.frostburg.edu/u?id=430248.781165b5ef80a3cd2b14721caf62bd92&n=T&l=tips&o=29266 > or send a blank email to > leave-29266-430248.781165b5ef80a3cd2b14721caf62b...@fsulist.frostburg.edu > --- You are currently subscribed to tips as: arch...@jab.org. 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